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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Aurora World, Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A), Expedia Group, Inc., Installed Building Products, Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc, Tapestry Inc, US Foods Holding Corp, Crocs Inc, Great Wall Motor and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Small Cap Gem #35: Aurora World
  • CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance: Sector Reclassification Drives Changes
  • Expedia Group: Diverse B2B Growth Opportunities As a Significant Growth Lever!
  • Installed Building Products (IBP): Its Efforts Towards Expansion in Heavy Commercial Business & Other Major Drivers!
  • Nexstar Media Group’s Bold Play on Political Ads & Digital Power Could Shock the Industry; What Lies Ahead?
  • Tapestry Inc.: An Insight Into its Direct-to-Consumer Model
  • US Foods Holding Corp.: A Tale of Health Care & Hospitality Sector Expansion!
  • Crocs Inc. Accelerates Global Expansion With Aggressive Market Penetration in China
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 May 2025); Volumes OK, Big Net Buying on SOEs/Financials


Korea Small Cap Gem #35: Aurora World

By Douglas Kim

  • Aurora World is best known for its plush toys (Palm Pals and YooHoo & Friends). It is increasingly trying to leverage its toy character brands to expand into digital contents. 
  • What makes Aurora World so interesting is its excellent fundamentals and deeply discounted valuations relative to The Pinkfong Company (IPO in 2H25) and SAMG Entertainment.
  • Aurora World generated more than 80% of its sales in overseas markets including the United States, U.K., and Hong Kong. 

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance: Sector Reclassification Drives Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 3 adds and 4 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June. There are changes driven by changes to the sector classification for stocks.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.2-0.65x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.15-1.75x ADV in the deletes.
  • The deletes have outperformed the adds over the last few months and some of that could dissipate over the next couple of weeks.

Expedia Group: Diverse B2B Growth Opportunities As a Significant Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • Expedia Group’s recent financial results for Q1 2025 present a complex blend of performance metrics that reveal both strengths and areas of concern.
  • The company’s gross bookings climbed by 4% to $31.5 billion, while revenue increased by 3% to $3 billion, aligning with expectations but reflecting a modest growth trajectory.
  • The growth has been hampered by weaker travel demand within and into the U.S., despite strong performances elsewhere.

Installed Building Products (IBP): Its Efforts Towards Expansion in Heavy Commercial Business & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • Installed Building Products (IBP) reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, reflecting mixed performance amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape affecting the construction industry.
  • The company’s performance was impacted by housing market dynamics and adverse weather conditions, although strategic initiatives and a strong operating framework provided some balance.
  • On the positive side, IBP maintained a solid financial base with significant cash flow, highlighting its capacity for growth via acquisitions.

Nexstar Media Group’s Bold Play on Political Ads & Digital Power Could Shock the Industry; What Lies Ahead?

By Baptista Research

  • Nexstar Media Group, a significant player in the broadcast television industry, delivered record financial results in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported $5.4 billion in total net revenue for the year, marking the highest in its 28-year history.
  • This performance was primarily driven by a strong political advertising cycle and growth in distribution revenue, alongside the company’s strategic positioning in nearly 85% of competitive election markets.

Tapestry Inc.: An Insight Into its Direct-to-Consumer Model

By Baptista Research

  • Tapestry, Inc. has recently released its third-quarter results, which exceeded market expectations, highlighting the company’s strong positioning and operational momentum across its brands.
  • The quarter saw accelerated revenue growth of 8% on a constant currency basis, driven primarily by the performance of its flagship brand, Coach, which achieved a 15% revenue increase.
  • Geographic performance was varied, with Europe seeing a 35% increase, substantial gains in the Asia-Pacific region, and steady growth in North America.

US Foods Holding Corp.: A Tale of Health Care & Hospitality Sector Expansion!

By Baptista Research

  • US Foods Holding Corp.’s latest earnings report for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 presents a mixed yet cautiously optimistic outlook.
  • The company reported strong profitability, with adjusted EBITDA growing more than 9% and adjusted diluted EPS increasing by 26%.
  • Notably, this performance was achieved despite adverse weather conditions and an overall challenging operating environment, highlighting the company’s effective execution of its strategic initiatives.

Crocs Inc. Accelerates Global Expansion With Aggressive Market Penetration in China

By Baptista Research

  • Crocs, Inc. reported a relatively stable first quarter of 2025 despite facing a volatile macroeconomic environment, mainly due to evolving global trade policies.
  • The company’s total revenues grew by 1% to $937 million, exceeding their guidance of a potential 1.5% decline.
  • This growth was driven by the Crocs brand, which saw revenues increase by 4% to $762 million.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 May 2025); Volumes OK, Big Net Buying on SOEs/Financials

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back below US$12bn a day this past week, but net buying was nearly US$700mm a day, which was decent.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is CONSUMER and INFO TECH dominating the top 20. Again.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor  and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels


Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

By John Ley

  • Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.
  • Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels. 
  • Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks. 

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Daily Brief China: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies , Winner Medical, Avic Shenyang Aircraft, China Mobile, Flat Glass, Bestechnic Shanghai , Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Northeast Securities, Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A), Suzhou Kematek and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows
  • CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Six Changes with Decent Impact
  • Quiddity SSE 50/180 Jun25 Results: 44 Changes; US$1.5bn Collective One-Way Flows
  • China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025):  Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents
  • STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ All Share Semi Index Rebalance: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
  • Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Jun25 Results: 114 Changes; 88% Hit Rate; ~US$5bn One-Way
  • CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou
  • CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance: Sector Reclassification Drives Changes
  • Quiddity CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25 Results: 11 ADDs/DELs; Couple of Surprises


STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows

By Brian Freitas


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Six Changes with Decent Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 30 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
  • There are 6 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.7-2.4x ADV in the adds and passive selling of between 1-4.7x ADV in the deletes.
  • There will be capping inflows for Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH) and capping outflows for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH)

Quiddity SSE 50/180 Jun25 Results: 44 Changes; US$1.5bn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for China’s SSE 50 and SSE 180 indices were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 4 ADDs/DELs for SSE 50 and 18 ADDs/DELs for SSE 180.
  • The SSE 50 and SSE 180 index rebal events could trigger US$1.3bn and US$210mn in one-way flows, respectively.

China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • With a 5-week rally China Mobile (941 HK) is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.
  • Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.
  • This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025):  Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) back down nearly 3%. CATL 10% through still.
  • Sharp skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium <20% saw H underperform sharply. Those in the 40-100% AH Premium range saw H outperform. Quiddity Portfolio alpha strong.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ All Share Semi Index Rebalance: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 4 changes for the STAR Chip Index, 8 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and 11 changes for the CSI All-Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index.
  • There are multiple stocks that will have flows from passive trackers across the three indices. Multiple stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers across the China universe.
  • Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) will have passive inflows from STAR50 INDEX, CSI 500 Index and CSI A500 Index trackers and outflows from the STAR100 Index and CSI1000 Index trackers.

Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Jun25 Results: 114 Changes; 88% Hit Rate; ~US$5bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for China’s CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 7 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500.
  • The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could trigger US$1.7bn and US$3.2bn in one-way flows, respectively.

CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 30 May and will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
  • Northeast Securities (000686 CH) will be added to the index while Harbin Hatou Investment Co, Ltd. (600864 CH) will be deleted.
  • There is over 2.5x ADV to trade in both stocks and much smaller impact of funding/capping flows on the other index constituents.

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance: Sector Reclassification Drives Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 3 adds and 4 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June. There are changes driven by changes to the sector classification for stocks.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.2-0.65x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.15-1.75x ADV in the deletes.
  • The deletes have outperformed the adds over the last few months and some of that could dissipate over the next couple of weeks.

Quiddity CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25 Results: 11 ADDs/DELs; Couple of Surprises

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for the CSI All Share Semiconductors Index were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 4 ADDs and 7 DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors Index.
  • We estimate one-way flows of approximately US$84mn in the June 2025 index rebal event.

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Daily Brief Japan: MS&AD Insurance, SBI Sumishin Net Bank , Makino Milling Machine Co, Nikkei 225 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jun25), Minor Updates
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN
  • Weekly Deals Digest (01 Jun) – Makino, SBI Sumishin, Taiyo, ENN Energy, HKBN, Meilan, Foshan Haitian
  • Nikkei Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Back to Pre-Tariff Levels, But Uncertainty Still Looms


[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jun25), Minor Updates

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 286 new CGRs filed since 1-May-25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
  • The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Mgmt Conscious updates came this month. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow. ‘Going Private’ policy is under public comment now.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara

By David Blennerhassett


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

By David Blennerhassett

  • MBK has made a legally binding bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.
  • Given the share price decline, Nufarm (NUF AU)‘s board is under pressure to do “something”. Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.
  • Dic Corp (4631 JP) is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.

Weekly Deals Digest (01 Jun) – Makino, SBI Sumishin, Taiyo, ENN Energy, HKBN, Meilan, Foshan Haitian

By Arun George


Nikkei Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Back to Pre-Tariff Levels, But Uncertainty Still Looms

By John Ley

  • Historic volatility has collapsed on the Nikkei, normalizing at a far quicker pace than the volatility episode last August.
  • Global uncertainty remains unresolved, casting a shadow over recent equity strength.
  • This week’s rally came without FX tailwinds, underscoring a potentially fragile move.

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Most Read: HDFC Bank, Shandong Himile Mechanical Science & Technology, Beijing Airport High Tech A, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies , Winner Medical, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China Mobile, Avic Shenyang Aircraft, MS&AD Insurance, Samyang Foods and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change
  • CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Many Changes Expected; US$1bn Trade
  • CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June
  • STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows
  • CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Six Changes with Decent Impact
  • CATL (3750.HK): Rich Vols, Strong Start, and a Tactical Hedge
  • China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside
  • Quiddity SSE 50/180 Jun25 Results: 44 Changes; US$1.5bn Collective One-Way Flows
  • [Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jun25), Minor Updates
  • Korean F&B: Focus on Companies With Strongest Export Growth


NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change

By Brian Freitas

  • To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
  • The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
  • The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.

CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Many Changes Expected; US$1bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 18 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the June rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 1.7% and the round-trip trade is around US$1bn.
  • The index was launched in September 2024, and the passive trackers have taken in a chunk of money since then. The flows to the stocks add to other index flows.
  • A long add/short deletes trade has been stable over the last few months. The forecast adds could outperform following announcement of the index changes on Friday.

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.

STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance: One Change in June Adds to Other (Larger) Index Flows

By Brian Freitas


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Six Changes with Decent Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 30 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
  • There are 6 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.7-2.4x ADV in the adds and passive selling of between 1-4.7x ADV in the deletes.
  • There will be capping inflows for Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH) and capping outflows for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH)

CATL (3750.HK): Rich Vols, Strong Start, and a Tactical Hedge

By John Ley

  • CATL’s options debut in Hong Kong has been active, with strong Call interest and rising open interest suggesting early investor enthusiasm.
  • Implied vols are holding firm post-listing and appear rich —potentially justifiable given the trading dynamics and catalysts.
  • We recommend a tactical hedge structure that skews return favourably, targeting recent highs and protecting against downside drift.

China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • With a 5-week rally China Mobile (941 HK) is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.
  • Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.
  • This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.

Quiddity SSE 50/180 Jun25 Results: 44 Changes; US$1.5bn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for China’s SSE 50 and SSE 180 indices were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
  • There will be 4 ADDs/DELs for SSE 50 and 18 ADDs/DELs for SSE 180.
  • The SSE 50 and SSE 180 index rebal events could trigger US$1.3bn and US$210mn in one-way flows, respectively.

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Jun25), Minor Updates

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 286 new CGRs filed since 1-May-25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
  • The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Mgmt Conscious updates came this month. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow. ‘Going Private’ policy is under public comment now.

Korean F&B: Focus on Companies With Strongest Export Growth

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide 3 major fundamental criteria for screening major Korean F&B companies. 
  • Three major criteria include 3 years CAGR revenue growth of 5% or more, increase in net margin in 2024, and overseas sales more than 10% of total sales.
  • Of the 30 Korean F&B companies mentioned in this insight, only six companies meet these criteria including Samyang Foods, Orion Corp, Hitejinro, Lotte Wellfood, Daesang Corporation, and Pulmuone.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 30th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 30th): Tencent, AIA, Meituan


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 30th): Tencent, AIA, Meituan

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 30th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Meituan (3690 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: Could It Be that the Unit Share System Has Helped to Turn Away from Growing Shareholder Interests? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Could It Be that the Unit Share System Has Helped to Turn Away from Growing Shareholder Interests?


Could It Be that the Unit Share System Has Helped to Turn Away from Growing Shareholder Interests?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The reason behind “TSE’s request to lower minimum investment amount to around JPY100,000” is to increase stocks that can be purchased with monthly 100,000 yen of NISA’s installment investment limit.
  • While the share unit system has allowed listed companies to reduce various costs, it has neglected the equal rights of shareholders who own less than one unit of stock.
  • Now that advances in shareholder administrative tools can reduce administrative costs, shareholders could be trade as few as one share and be granted the same rights as a single shareholder.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS
  • [IO Technicals 2025/22] Bearish Momentum Strengthens
  • The Stocks to Own in China – Vol. 36
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/3690HK/TCOM US/1024HK/700HK/PONY US/BIDU US/WRD US/GOOGL
  • #154 India Insights: GenAI, $44B Space Sector Boom, JSW Steel’s Capacity Target On Track
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/LI US/601127 CH/NIO US/BZ US/1211 HK/New Energy Vehicle
  • Spotlight On Neurodegenerative Diseases Innovative Treatments: TREM2 Agonists
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 30/05/2025
  • The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 49


Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

By William Keating

  • CDNS, SNPS each fall >10% on the back of further US restrictions on sale to China
  • Both of their China revenues were around 10% in the most recent quarter, albeit in the case of CDNS, it was 15% in the year ago quarter
  • China’s domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to further accelerate its development

[IO Technicals 2025/22] Bearish Momentum Strengthens

By Amrutha Raj

  • Iron ore futures dropped as China’s steel demand weakened and Beijing considered a pre-sale ban of unfinished homes, potentially hurting global steel demand. 
  • Expectations of impending production restrictions were bolstered when Baosteel forecasted that China’s total steel output could decrease by 50 million tons this year. 
  • On the technical front, prices remain below key moving averages, and MACD lags the signal line, reinforcing a persistent bearish outlook. 

The Stocks to Own in China – Vol. 36

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 10 stocks in China that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Two stocks remain, eight new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 172% versus the CSI 300 Index’s return of 61%

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/3690HK/TCOM US/1024HK/700HK/PONY US/BIDU US/WRD US/GOOGL

By Ying Pan

  • JD US/BABA US/3690 HK: Food Delivery Subsidy Rules Adjusted Again, Merchant Share Rises to 70% (+/+/+)
  • TCOM US: Stable Traffic Growth in Dragon Boat Festival Traffic(+)
  • TCOM US:Daily cross-border trips during Dragon Boat Festival holiday hit 2.15m (-)

#154 India Insights: GenAI, $44B Space Sector Boom, JSW Steel’s Capacity Target On Track

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) chairman highlights India’s strong growth outlook, emerging trends like GenAI, and the nation’s stability.
  • India’s space sector, driven by state-level policies and private investments, is set to reach $44 billion by 2033.
  • JSW Steel’s 50 MT capacity target by FY31 remains intact despite Bhushan setback, focusing on brownfield and greenfield expansions.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/LI US/601127 CH/NIO US/BZ US/1211 HK/New Energy Vehicle

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV US: Mona M03 Max facelift launches with RMB15k price cut (+)
  • LI US/601127 CH/ XPEV US/NIO US: Week 21 Sales Ranking (May 19-25, 2025)(+/+/-/-)
  • New Energy Vehicle: MOC focuses on “zero-mile used cars”, BYD(1211 HK) & Dongfeng attend meeting(-)

Spotlight On Neurodegenerative Diseases Innovative Treatments: TREM2 Agonists

By Water Tower Research

  • The critical role of TREM2. Triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2) is a protein that is primarily found on the surface of microglia.
  • Microglia are the primary immune cells of the central nervous system (CNS), which essentially act as the first and principal line of active immune defense in the CNS.
  • TREM2 helps the CNS immune system by enhancing microglia’s ability to clear toxic substances, abnormal proteins (such as amyloid beta), and cellular debris. I

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 30/05/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Gearing-up for acquisitions?
  • – 1Q25 production was 4,085 boe/d with no horizontal wells drilled in the period.
  • RCE is more mature than CN and while no drilling has taken place at RCE, the decline rate between 4Q24 and 1Q25 was only ~5%.

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 49

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 73% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 10%

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount
  • Samsung Still in the Woods, SK Hynix Still Ahead. China Semi News (Huawei)
  • Texas Roadhouse: A Tale Of Smart Menu Pricing & Inflation Defense Tactics!
  • Asia File Update : 1st Quarter Results
  • Cloudflare Inc.: Expansion in Zero Trust and SASE Solutions & Major Growth Levers!
  • Korean F&B: Focus on Companies With Strongest Export Growth
  • Carvana Co.: Is The Third-Party Marketplace Expansion Its Secret Weapon For Growth?
  • VIAB US – How Paramount Global Is Mastering Linear-Streaming Synergy to Dominate Sports and Series!
  • Royalty Pharma Flexes Financial Muscle: A $723 Million In Share Repurchases & Bold 2025 Outlook!
  • HubSpot Inc.: How Is The Management Executing Mid-Market Expansion to Make Its Business More Resilient To Economic Fluctuations?


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
  • UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread
  • CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher

Samsung Still in the Woods, SK Hynix Still Ahead. China Semi News (Huawei)

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Samsung 3nm yields improving (50-60%) but still far behind TSMC (85-90%)
  • SK Hynix is finalizing HBM4 agreements with Nvidia, Samsung is still not qualified for HBM3e.
  • Huawei into semiconductor chemicals? The vulnerability is photo-resist, but that’s very hard to do 

Texas Roadhouse: A Tale Of Smart Menu Pricing & Inflation Defense Tactics!

By Baptista Research

  • Texas Roadhouse reported its first quarter financial results, demonstrating both strengths and challenges in its business performance.
  • The company recorded a revenue of over $1.4 billion, with same-store sales increasing by 3.5% and average weekly sales reaching all-time highs.
  • Notably, March experienced the highest weekly sales across Texas Roadhouse’s three brands: Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33, and Jaggers.

Asia File Update : 1st Quarter Results

By Punit Khanna

  • Operating Business did well with filing revenues marginally declining and food ware business growing
  • One off write off investment in associate and intangible asset
  • Maintain the view that Risk Reward are asymmetrical as the company trades below cash

Cloudflare Inc.: Expansion in Zero Trust and SASE Solutions & Major Growth Levers!

By Baptista Research

  • Cloudflare reported its financial performance for Q1 2025, showcasing several encouraging outcomes along with some aspects that warrant attention.
  • The company achieved a revenue of $479.1 million, marking a 27% increase year-over-year.
  • This growth was primarily driven by the addition of large customers, with 3,527 clients contributing over $100,000 annually—a 23% year-over-year rise.

Korean F&B: Focus on Companies With Strongest Export Growth

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide 3 major fundamental criteria for screening major Korean F&B companies. 
  • Three major criteria include 3 years CAGR revenue growth of 5% or more, increase in net margin in 2024, and overseas sales more than 10% of total sales.
  • Of the 30 Korean F&B companies mentioned in this insight, only six companies meet these criteria including Samyang Foods, Orion Corp, Hitejinro, Lotte Wellfood, Daesang Corporation, and Pulmuone.

Carvana Co.: Is The Third-Party Marketplace Expansion Its Secret Weapon For Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Carvana Co.’s latest earnings for Q1 2025 highlighted several key achievements as well as ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported robust growth across several financial metrics, reflecting the effectiveness of its business model in a competitive and fragmented automotive retail industry.
  • On the positive side, Carvana achieved record retail units sold at 133,898, representing a 46% increase year over-year.

VIAB US – How Paramount Global Is Mastering Linear-Streaming Synergy to Dominate Sports and Series!

By Baptista Research

  • Paramount Global’s Q1 2025 financial results presented a mixed picture of the company’s performance and strategic positioning.
  • On the positive side, Paramount reported a 2% revenue growth, when excluding the Super Bowl, alongside a significant year-over-year improvement in Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) OIBDA by approximately $180 million.
  • The company also generated $123 million in free cash flow, demonstrating efficient cash management amid a challenging advertising environment.

Royalty Pharma Flexes Financial Muscle: A $723 Million In Share Repurchases & Bold 2025 Outlook!

By Baptista Research

  • Royalty Pharma PLC’s recent earnings results for the first quarter of 2025 outline a period of significant financial performance and strategic initiatives.
  • The company reported a 12% increase in royalty receipts, demonstrating solid cash flow stemming from its diversified portfolio.
  • Total portfolio receipts grew by 17%, boosted by variable milestones and contractual payments, indicating a strong top-line performance.

HubSpot Inc.: How Is The Management Executing Mid-Market Expansion to Make Its Business More Resilient To Economic Fluctuations?

By Baptista Research

  • HubSpot reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting continued growth and strategic momentum.
  • Revenue increased by 18% year-over-year in constant currency, driven by several key trends.
  • The company added over 10,000 net new customers, bringing its total customer base to 258,000, with customer growth driven by platform consolidation, upmarket expansion, and robust downmarket acquisition.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Japanese Neobanks: Time to Short Rakuten Bank (TSE: 5838) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Neobanks: Time to Short Rakuten Bank (TSE: 5838)
  • Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown


Japanese Neobanks: Time to Short Rakuten Bank (TSE: 5838)

By Victor Galliano

  • We believe that the recently announced offer by NTT Docomo for SBI Sumishin Netbank is attractive for Netbank shareholders; this brings the Japanese neobanks into the valuation spotlight
  • There is a modest long arbitrage opportunity in SBI Sumishin Netbank based on its 30th May closing price, but the bigger opportunity, in our view, is shorting Rakuten Bank
  • Seven Bank is of potential M&A interest, according to the Japanese financial press; despite the speculative boost to Seven shares and its PBV, Rakuten Bank valuations look relatively very stretched

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Assura draws competing offers: KKR offers 49.4p cash per share, while PHP counters with a 50.53p blend of cash and stock, sparking a rare UK healthcare REIT bidding war.
  • With pro forma LTV below 50% and strong interest coverage, PHP can raise its cash component by 2–3p/share without losing investment-grade status; PUSU deadline looms 14 June.
  • Arbitrage investors can go long Assura and hedge PHP exposure via CFDs at a 0.3769 ratio, isolating deal spread upside while managing market risk.

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