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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief India: HDFC Bank, Sarda Energy & Minerals, Globus Spirits, Indusind Bank, Synergy Green Industries, Aster DM Healthcare Ltd, Bosch Ltd, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change
  • Sarda Energy (SARDA IN): Power-Led Transition with Re-Rating Potential
  • HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?
  • Globus Spirits: Consumer Business Growth &  Manufacturing Stability
  • HDFC Bank (“HDFCB”): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation
  • A Deep Dive into SEBI’s IndusInd Bank Insider Trading Order
  • Synergy Green Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Capacity Expansion Fuels Strong FY25
  • 2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM(ASTERDM IN)-Occupancy to Recover; Margin Improvement Continues
  • Bosch Limited: Shifting Gears Toward Intelligent and Sustainable Mobility
  • ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): A Statistical Pair Trade Opportunity


NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change

By Brian Freitas

  • To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
  • The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
  • The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.

Sarda Energy (SARDA IN): Power-Led Transition with Re-Rating Potential

By Rahul Jain

  • Sarda’s near-term growth will be driven by the full-year contribution from SKS Power, boosting earnings visibility.
  • The business mix is shifting structurally from steel to power, which now contributes over 60% of EBIT. Low leverage at <1x EV/EBITDA is a positive.
  • The recent weakness in spot power prices is seen as temporary; at 15x FY27 EV/EBITDA, the stock offers strong upside.

HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

By Nico Rosti

  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is navigating a mix of positive growth indicators and emerging regulatory challenges but average 12-month target is ₹2,194, with estimates ranging from ₹1,627 to ₹2,793.
  • Consensus rating: predominantly “Buy” from major brokerages, including ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal, citing strong loan growth and stable asset quality.
  • The stock’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook remain intact, but momentum has stalled in recent weeks following the sharp rally we correctly anticipated from January 14, 2025.

Globus Spirits: Consumer Business Growth &  Manufacturing Stability

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Globus Spirits continues its strategic pivot towards high-margin consumer business, with P&A revenue up 186% in FY25 and Regular & Others up 17%.
  • The manufacturing segment’s margins are stabilising due to favourable government ethanol policies and raw material availability, enhancing overall profitability.
  • This shift, coupled with significant investments in the key Uttar Pradesh market and near completion of major capex, positions the company for continued profitable growth, reinforcing a positive view.

HDFC Bank (“HDFCB”): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • In Q4FY25, deposits grew strong at 15.8% YoY. QoQ, average deposits grew by 3.1%. Time deposits led the growth while growth in CASA deposits was relatively muted.
  • In line with its stated strategy, HDFCB’s loan book has been growing slower than that of deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio. Average AUM grew 7.3% YoY in Q4FY25.
  • Credit-Deposit ratio is now at 96% vs 110% at merger. Going forward, the adjustment in credit-deposit ratio won’t be as steep, thus FY26 is expected to be a normalization year.

A Deep Dive into SEBI’s IndusInd Bank Insider Trading Order

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI’s order against IndusInd Bank’s ex-CEO and others reveals a 15-month deliberate delay in disclosing critical accounting discrepancies.
  • This exposes severe corporate governance failures, eroding investor trust due to alleged insider trading.
  • SEBI fined the company with the INR 20Crs. to IndusInd officials as well as also barred the senior officials from dealing in security market.

Synergy Green Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Capacity Expansion Fuels Strong FY25

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Synergy Green reported robust FY25 performance with 11% revenue growth and 224bps EBITDA margin expansion, driven by direct exports and gearboxes.  
  • Strong execution and margin improvement underscore operational efficiency, while a significant INR 187 crore capex addresses capacity constraints, crucial for future growth.
  • Performance validates the business model, but the delayed capex execution means FY26 growth will be heavily back-ended, requiring close monitoring of ramp-up.

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM(ASTERDM IN)-Occupancy to Recover; Margin Improvement Continues

By Tina Banerjee

  • Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) reported 4% revenue decline in Kerala due to festivities, lower international patient, and leadership transition. Ramadan impact caused 2.5–3.0% of the revenue hit.
  • Going ahead, the company is eyeing for atleast mid-teens growth from Kerala cluster, with 7–8% will be with volumes and balance 7–8% will come from the ARPOB.  
  • Aster’s base business is on a stable growth path. Margin levers are intact. With QCIL merger synergies, the company aims for EBITDA margin of 23–24% in 3–4 years.

Bosch Limited: Shifting Gears Toward Intelligent and Sustainable Mobility

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Bosch Ltd (BOS IN) ‘s multiple technology innovations in mobility, consumer power goods and energy & building technology will drive future growth.
  • FY25 PBT grew by 17% YoY driven by increased sales in the off-highway segment and mobility aftermarket business.
  • Deserves a premium valuation for its commitment to innovation, digitalization, and sustainability. Trades at median historical valuation of 40x P/E on FY27e EPS.

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): A Statistical Pair Trade Opportunity

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
  • This Insight discusses trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, and risk management strategies.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung KODEX Semicon ETF, Otis Worldwide , Curtiss Wright, Tetra Tech Inc, Verisk Analytics, Watts Water Technologies A, Synergy Green Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Clarifying the Universe for Key Korean Index Rebalancings in September
  • Otis CEO: Moving Billions Daily, Elevator Evolution, and Service Excellence
  • Curtiss-Wright: Commercial Aerospace Opportunities As A Key Growth Catalyst!
  • Tetra Tech: Will Its Investments In Infrastructure & Water Management Projects Yield Results…
  • Verisk Analytics: Adaptation to Market Conditions, M&A Focus & Other Major Developments!
  • Watts Water Technologies: Vertical Integration & U.S.-Based Manufacturing to Capitalize On Its Competitive Advantages In Manufacturing & Distribution!
  • Synergy Green Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Capacity Expansion Fuels Strong FY25


Clarifying the Universe for Key Korean Index Rebalancings in September

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX sector indices use TMI as their universe, while KOSPI cap-tier indices use all KOSPI-listed stocks, creating a key difference in universe selection.
  • KRX sector indices rebalance annually after September expiry, using September TMI (reviewed end-July) as their universe—not the June version, despite common confusion.
  • Pre-Positioning is uncertain; market likely waits for August’s September TMI results before building positions. KOSPI cap indices use August review date, with similar flow patterns starting six weeks prior.

Otis CEO: Moving Billions Daily, Elevator Evolution, and Service Excellence

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • Passenger experience is key for elevators, focusing on ride quality and safety
  • Elevators should prioritize moving people quickly and efficiently
  • The elevator industry is highly consolidated with few major competitors and regulations play a significant role in the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Curtiss-Wright: Commercial Aerospace Opportunities As A Key Growth Catalyst!

By Baptista Research

  • Curtiss-Wright’s first quarter 2025 earnings results reveal a robust start to the year, driven by both increased sales and operational efficiency.
  • The company reported a 13% year-over-year increase in sales to $806 million, with an 11% rise on an organic basis.
  • This growth was primarily fueled by stronger-than-expected performance in the Aerospace and Defense (A&D) markets.

Tetra Tech: Will Its Investments In Infrastructure & Water Management Projects Yield Results…

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings for Tetra Tech presented a mix of positive developments and notable challenges, providing investors with a nuanced view of the company’s current financial health and strategic direction.
  • The quarter was extraordinary in terms of revenue and profitability, achieved despite the unexpected loss of the largest client, which marks a significant test for Tetra Tech’s client diversification strategy.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Verisk Analytics: Adaptation to Market Conditions, M&A Focus & Other Major Developments!

By Baptista Research

  • Verisk Analytics (Verisk) has demonstrated a positive start to 2025, with a notable performance in the first quarter.
  • The company saw double-digit growth in subscription revenues, contributing to an overall organic constant currency (OCC) revenue increase of 7.9%.
  • This growth was propelled by a 10.6% rise in subscription revenues, reflecting strength across multiple business units within the company.

Watts Water Technologies: Vertical Integration & U.S.-Based Manufacturing to Capitalize On Its Competitive Advantages In Manufacturing & Distribution!

By Baptista Research

  • Watts Water Technologies reported its first quarter results for 2025, which showed a mix of positive achievements and ongoing challenges.
  • The company experienced record operating income and operating margins, along with adjusted earnings per share.
  • Despite these results, organic sales declined by 2%, impacted by fewer shipping days and weakness in the European market.

Synergy Green Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Capacity Expansion Fuels Strong FY25

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Synergy Green reported robust FY25 performance with 11% revenue growth and 224bps EBITDA margin expansion, driven by direct exports and gearboxes.  
  • Strong execution and margin improvement underscore operational efficiency, while a significant INR 187 crore capex addresses capacity constraints, crucial for future growth.
  • Performance validates the business model, but the delayed capex execution means FY26 growth will be heavily back-ended, requiring close monitoring of ramp-up.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Isuzu Motors, SHEIN, Mazda Motor, The Pinkfong Company, Miniso, Globus Spirits, Build A Bear Workshop, Lands’ End Inc, Light & Wonder and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan ECM] Financial Crossholders Offering Isuzu (7202) – Big Buyback Covers Most Of The Back End
  • Isuzu Motors Placement – Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback
  • Shein IPO: Hong Kong Yes, London No
  • CIT Saves the World from Tariffs, but Not Mazda (7261)
  • Initial Thoughts on The Pinkfong Company IPO (Creator of the Baby Shark Brand)
  • [Miniso(MNSO US, SELL, TP US$13.5) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Low Quality Expansion Bore Bitter Fruit
  • Globus Spirits: Consumer Business Growth &  Manufacturing Stability
  • BBW: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Guide Right for the Times; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT
  • LE: 1Q Preview: Being Creative in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
  • Light & Wonder’s Secret Weapon: Premium Games & A $1.4B Profit Target in Sight; But Is It Achievable?


[Japan ECM] Financial Crossholders Offering Isuzu (7202) – Big Buyback Covers Most Of The Back End

By Travis Lundy

  • In line with the trend of financial institutions led by non-life insurers selling out of their cross-holdings, today we get an offering of shares held in Isuzu Motors (7202 JP)
  • Today we got an announcement of 29.28mm shares being offered by a dozen financial institutions and a greenshoe for 15% more. At a 10% discount from here it’s ¥57bn/US$400mm.
  • It is 16 days of ADV, which is big, but the company also announced a ¥50bn buyback from Pricing+6 to end of March 2026. That should stabilise things.

Isuzu Motors Placement – Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$380m via selling around 4% of Isuzu Motors (7202 JP).
  • Being another cross-shareholding unwind in Japan, it shouldn’t carry much negative connotations, in our view.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Shein IPO: Hong Kong Yes, London No

By Douglas Kim

  • Shein announced it is planning for an IPO in Hong Kong in 2025. Shein tried to go public in London, but its attempt has essentially failed. 
  • Due to tariff war and ending de minimis for shipments from China and Hong Kong by the U.S. government, the valuation of Shein could decline to less than $50 billion.
  • Now, as long as the valuation is not excessive but reasonable, there could be a decent demand for this IPO of Shein in Hong Kong. 

CIT Saves the World from Tariffs, but Not Mazda (7261)

By Michael Allen

  • Mazda leaped upward with other Auto companies following a Court of International Trade ruling that nullified Trump’s reciprocal tariffs but left auto tariffs at 25%.
  • The CIT has historically given presidents much more leeway on rules that the auto tariffs fall under, so challenges to these tariffs are less likely to succeed.
  • The tariff threat to Mazda is existential, and in our view, consensus forecasts have not even begun to appreciate this.

Initial Thoughts on The Pinkfong Company IPO (Creator of the Baby Shark Brand)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide our initial thoughts on The Pinkfong Company IPO which is expected to be completed in KOSPI in 2H 2025.
  • The Pinkfong Company is the creator of the Baby Shark brand. Its original “Baby Shark Dance” is the most viewed Youtube video ever (15.9 billion views as of May 2025). 
  • The Pinkfong Company’s valuation was more than 1 trillion won in 2021 (Series B investment round). 

[Miniso(MNSO US, SELL, TP US$13.5) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Low Quality Expansion Bore Bitter Fruit

By Eric Wen

  • MNSO reported 1Q25 rev. in line with cons. but non-GAAP op. profit 17% below and GAAP net income 33% below cons, 
  • We view MNSO’s store expansion as being below its bar of quality. Downside risks were not fully priced in. Our 2025 revenue/net profit forecasts are 7.0%/8.2% below consensus;
  • We cut the TP from US$16 to US$13.5/ADS and keep the SELL rating.

Globus Spirits: Consumer Business Growth &  Manufacturing Stability

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Globus Spirits continues its strategic pivot towards high-margin consumer business, with P&A revenue up 186% in FY25 and Regular & Others up 17%.
  • The manufacturing segment’s margins are stabilising due to favourable government ethanol policies and raw material availability, enhancing overall profitability.
  • This shift, coupled with significant investments in the key Uttar Pradesh market and near completion of major capex, positions the company for continued profitable growth, reinforcing a positive view.

BBW: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Guide Right for the Times; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $58 price target for Build-A-Bear Workshop and slightly lowering our EPS projections to account for the current tariff-driven environment, as the company announced material 1Q top and bottom line upside, driven by strong offerings, seasonal shifts and further gains in the higher margin franchising and third party segments.
  • Further, management continues to return capital to shareholders via share repurchases and quarterly dividends, while still maintaining a cash rich ($3.37 per share), debt free balance sheet.
  • That said, given the current uncertain economic environment, management, despite the 1Q upside, remained conservative in their guidance, reiterating FY25 revenue growth of mid single digits and reducing the pre-tax projection to $61 to $67 million.

LE: 1Q Preview: Being Creative in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Lands’ End with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results before the open on Thursday.
  • We believe in the key tenets of the Lands’ Ends story, from: 1) lowering discounting (and inventory); 2) shifting the product and customer mix to a younger, more fashion driven buyer who will purchase multi-item offerings; 3) expanding and shifting the product mix with higher-margin licensed categories; 4) continuing to expand the online marketplace offerings; 5) leveraging the company’s strong brand and ability to quickly respond to capture more business services contracts and 6) growing the international business via owned and licensed offerings.
  • That said, even before tariffs, the optics of 2025, with increased levels of licensed goods, would make this year a period of transition.

Light & Wonder’s Secret Weapon: Premium Games & A $1.4B Profit Target in Sight; But Is It Achievable?

By Baptista Research

  • Light & Wonder (LNW) has demonstrated resilient growth in its first quarter of 2025, reflective of a comprehensive strategy focused on product innovation, operational excellence, and a diversified gaming portfolio.
  • The company reported a 2% increase in consolidated revenue year-over-year, reaching $774 million, driven primarily by its gaming and iGaming segments.
  • The gaming division, which accounted for $495 million of the revenue, experienced growth across various business lines, notably in gaming operations, tables, and systems.

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Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, Crude Oil, Mammoth Energy Services, Occidental Petroleum, Omada Health, Skyworks Solutions, Hewlett Packard Co, Cdw Corp/De, Build A Bear Workshop, IonQ and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt
  • Dan Dicker: The Great Oil Reckoning – [Making Markets, EP.61]
  • Pitch the PM’s Doug Garber on $TUSK’s mammoth cash balance
  • Occidental Petroleum: Advancements in Low-Carbon Ventures & Other Major Drivers
  • Omada Health (OMDA): Second Virtual Healthcare Provider Ready to Test the IPO Market
  • Skyworks Solutions: Its RF Expertise In The 5G Era Is Probably Its Single Biggest Competitive Edge! – Major Drivers
  • PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches
  • CDW Corporation: A Closer Look At Its End-Market Growth & Diversification & Other Major Drivers!
  • BBW: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Guide Right for the Times; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT
  • IonQ’s $8.75 Billion Dream Collides With Doubts: Can Acquisitions Outpace Losses?


NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

By William Keating

  • NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ
  • NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues
  • Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.

Dan Dicker: The Great Oil Reckoning – [Making Markets, EP.61]

By Web3 Breakdowns

  • Daniel Dicker is a seasoned oil trader and expert on energy markets
  • Oil has become less important in the macro landscape, with its influence on stocks decreasing over the years
  • Oil’s current price fluctuations are driven more by supply and demand factors rather than financial speculation, with no signs of improvement in the near future, despite recent macro developments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Pitch the PM’s Doug Garber on $TUSK’s mammoth cash balance

By Yet Another Value Podcast

Mammoth Energy (Tusk) has undergone a transformation and is a potentially undervalued small cap stock with limited downside

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Occidental Petroleum: Advancements in Low-Carbon Ventures & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Occidental Petroleum’s recent earnings call for the first quarter of 2025 presented a mixed but detailed view of the company’s operational and financial performance, showcasing both strengths and challenges.
  • The management highlighted a solid execution across its diversified portfolio, despite facing some market headwinds and external uncertainties.
  • On the positive side, Occidental generated $3 billion in operating cash flow before working capital adjustments, maintaining oil and gas production at just over 1.39 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, which aligns with their guidance.

Omada Health (OMDA): Second Virtual Healthcare Provider Ready to Test the IPO Market

By IPO Boutique

  • After the success of Hinge Health, Omada Health is now testing the IPO waters. 
  • Omada Health set terms with the SEC on Thursday morning for its IPO and will offer 7.9mm shares at $18-$20 with a debut date of Friday, June 6th. 
  • The size of the transaction is manageable and the company is backed by major VC players in the industry. 

Skyworks Solutions: Its RF Expertise In The 5G Era Is Probably Its Single Biggest Competitive Edge! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Skyworks Solutions reported its second fiscal quarter 2025 results, highlighting both strengths and challenges within its operational landscape.
  • The company delivered revenue of $953 million and earnings per share of $1.24, both slightly exceeding the midpoint of their guidance.
  • Gross profit was $445 million, with a gross margin of 46.7%, indicating strong execution in cost management and operational efficiency.

PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • HP Results Show Commercial PC Growth is Resilient, AI PC Penetration Expanding
  • Key Industry Outlook Perspective — HP’s ZGX AI Station with NVIDIA Chips Marks the True Arrival of AI PCs… Locally Run LLMs Signal a Step-Change for PC Capabilities
  • Remain Structurally Long PC Makers on AI PC Upgrade Cycle — Emergence of New NVIDIA Blackwell-Powered Workstations Clarifying the Path for AI PCs to Deliver Step-Change Improvements in Value

CDW Corporation: A Closer Look At Its End-Market Growth & Diversification & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • The earnings for CDW Corporation’s first quarter of 2025 highlights several key aspects of its performance and outlook.
  • With detailed comments from management, the company presents a mixed set of results and expectations amid a dynamic market environment.
  • Starting with the positives, CDW reported a robust start to the year with net sales increasing by 8% year-over-year to $5.2 billion.

BBW: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Guide Right for the Times; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $58 price target for Build-A-Bear Workshop and slightly lowering our EPS projections to account for the current tariff-driven environment, as the company announced material 1Q top and bottom line upside, driven by strong offerings, seasonal shifts and further gains in the higher margin franchising and third party segments.
  • Further, management continues to return capital to shareholders via share repurchases and quarterly dividends, while still maintaining a cash rich ($3.37 per share), debt free balance sheet.
  • That said, given the current uncertain economic environment, management, despite the 1Q upside, remained conservative in their guidance, reiterating FY25 revenue growth of mid single digits and reducing the pre-tax projection to $61 to $67 million.

IonQ’s $8.75 Billion Dream Collides With Doubts: Can Acquisitions Outpace Losses?

By Baptista Research

  • IonQ’s latest financial results and strategic developments signal a bold push toward cementing its role as a dominant player in the emerging quantum computing industry.
  • The company reported first-quarter revenue of $7.6 million, matching last year’s figure but exceeding analyst expectations.
  • Despite the flat top-line performance, IonQ remains aggressive in its vision to become the “Nvidia of quantum computing,” as CEO Niccolo de Masi described.

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Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Taiyo Holdings, SBI Sumishin Net Bank , GMO Financial Gate, Anker Innovations Technology, Isuzu Motors, Sasseur REIT, Samsung KODEX Semicon ETF, HDFC Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626) Now an MBO Target? KKR and One More Bidding
  • [Japan M&A] NTT To Buy Out SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163) At a HUGE Price for Minorities
  • [Quiddity Index] GMO (9449) Sub GMO Financial Gate (4051) Moves to TOPIX
  • STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Change; Maybe Two
  • [Japan ECM] Financial Crossholders Offering Isuzu (7202) – Big Buyback Covers Most Of The Back End
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Sasseur REIT: Unlocking Value in China’s Retail Outlet Industry
  • Clarifying the Universe for Key Korean Index Rebalancings in September
  • Isuzu Motors Placement – Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback
  • NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change


CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

By Brian Freitas


[Japan Activism/M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626) Now an MBO Target? KKR and One More Bidding

By Travis Lundy

  • Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) has an interesting background, embroiled in a separate activist event via its equity affiliate sponsor Dic Corp (4631 JP), and recently an activist target itself. 
  • Today a Bloomberg article said KKR and one other PE fund had made acquisition proposals via TOB. Taiyo confirmed, establishing a Special Committee. A deal is months away, at earliest.
  • Shares shot up to limit up, opened briefly, then resumed at limit up. The question here and now is valuation. 

[Japan M&A] NTT To Buy Out SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163) At a HUGE Price for Minorities

By Travis Lundy

  • Late Nov-2024, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) was trading ¥2,900, weekly mag Bunshun scooped a possible NTT Docomo deal. The stock popped, I was skeptical. It popped more.
  • At Q3 earnings, NTT seemed to downplay the possibility saying they wouldn’t overpay. SBI Sumshin fell. Then fell some more. 
  • Today we get a deal whereby NTT buys out SBI Holdings (8473 JP)‘s 34% stake, and minorities, and partners with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust. Then a side deal with SBI. 

[Quiddity Index] GMO (9449) Sub GMO Financial Gate (4051) Moves to TOPIX

By Travis Lundy


STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Set of Change; Maybe Two

By Brian Freitas


[Japan ECM] Financial Crossholders Offering Isuzu (7202) – Big Buyback Covers Most Of The Back End

By Travis Lundy

  • In line with the trend of financial institutions led by non-life insurers selling out of their cross-holdings, today we get an offering of shares held in Isuzu Motors (7202 JP)
  • Today we got an announcement of 29.28mm shares being offered by a dozen financial institutions and a greenshoe for 15% more. At a 10% discount from here it’s ¥57bn/US$400mm.
  • It is 16 days of ADV, which is big, but the company also announced a ¥50bn buyback from Pricing+6 to end of March 2026. That should stabilise things.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Sasseur REIT: Unlocking Value in China’s Retail Outlet Industry

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Sasseur REIT’s CFO, Mr. Xie Jianfeng, Head of Asset Management, Mr. Cheng Hsing Yuen, and Head of Investor Relations & Capital Markets, Ms. Helen Qiu.

In the upcoming webinar, the Sasseur REIT team will share a short company presentation after which, they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Garreth Elston. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 June 2025, 16:30 SGT.

About Sasseur REIT

Sasseur REIT is the first retail outlet mall REIT listed in Asia. Sasseur REIT offers investors
the unique opportunity to invest in the fast-growing retail outlet mall sector in China through
its initial portfolio of four quality retail outlet mall assets strategically located in fast-growing
Chinese cities such as Chongqing, Kunming and Hefei, with a combined net lettable area of
310,241 square metres.

Sasseur REIT is established with the investment strategy to invest principally, directly or
indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for
retail outlet mall purposes, as well as real estate-related assets in relation to the foregoing,
with an initial focus on Asia.

You can view their latest factsheet here.

For more information on Sasseur REIT, please visit http://www.sasseurreit.com/


Clarifying the Universe for Key Korean Index Rebalancings in September

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX sector indices use TMI as their universe, while KOSPI cap-tier indices use all KOSPI-listed stocks, creating a key difference in universe selection.
  • KRX sector indices rebalance annually after September expiry, using September TMI (reviewed end-July) as their universe—not the June version, despite common confusion.
  • Pre-Positioning is uncertain; market likely waits for August’s September TMI results before building positions. KOSPI cap indices use August review date, with similar flow patterns starting six weeks prior.

Isuzu Motors Placement – Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$380m via selling around 4% of Isuzu Motors (7202 JP).
  • Being another cross-shareholding unwind in Japan, it shouldn’t carry much negative connotations, in our view.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change

By Brian Freitas

  • To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
  • The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
  • The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Beats and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Beats
  • From Rust to Riches: The Next Copper Boom
  • Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers and Tariffs Blocked by US Trade Court Sending Futures Higher
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/21] Cautious Stimulus, Economic Recalibration & Inventory Insights
  • BAIC Enters Indian Commercial Vehicle Market – Implications
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Housing Affordability, Home Size on the Decline
  • Last Orders? GEM Funds Retreat from Alcoholic Beverages Stocks
  • Crypto Hustle


Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Beats

By Mark Chadwick

  • On Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.56% to 5,888.55 as investors awaited Nvidia’s earnings
  • After the close, Nvidia reported Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, beating expectations
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reported a robust order backlog exceeding 10,000 billion yen, doubling pre-pandemic levels

From Rust to Riches: The Next Copper Boom

By Rikki Malik

  • Declining Chinese inventory and rising premiums bode well for the copper price.
  • Speculative interest, as per the COT reports, is low, providing room for new buyers.
  • Infrastructure and defence spending are on the rise in most regions of the world

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers and Tariffs Blocked by US Trade Court Sending Futures Higher

By Andrew Jackson

  • NVDA numbers were inline, but Blackwell rollout and outlook for further sovereign expansion sets bullish tone.
  • HP numbers point to bleak demand for PC’s due to rising import costs and a slower economy
  • Rohm +13% as its switches to a more AI focused bucket + NKY potential.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/21] Cautious Stimulus, Economic Recalibration & Inventory Insights

By Amrutha Raj

  • PBoC reduced one-year and five-year loan prime rates to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, marking a careful step amid ongoing U.S. trade tensions. 
  • Xu Lin proposed a 4% annual growth target to address demographic and structural challenges, advocating structural reforms and private sector engagement. 
  • Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports fell in the third week of May, primarily due to reduced arrivals of new shipments.

BAIC Enters Indian Commercial Vehicle Market – Implications

By Sreemant Dudhoria


Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Housing Affordability, Home Size on the Decline

By Water Tower Research

  • Furniture and furnishings stocks were down, along with the rest of the market, as Moody’s downgraded US debt on concerns over expanding deficits and higher interest rates, exacerbated by concerns that the administration’s proposed budget could significantly increase total federal debt, and continued concern over the fate of tariffs and US trade policy.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 4.5%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index fell 2.6%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index was down 8.5% in a week where the broader indices (2.7%) and the R2K (3.1%) were down by low single digits.
  • Less for more when it comes to housing according to the WSJ (1). Houses in the US are starting to get at least a bit smaller on the margin in the post-pandemic period (Figure 1), perhaps signaling the end (or at least a pause) in the trend toward larger homes that has been in place throughout the post-war era as families increasingly moved out of the cities and into the suburbs.

Last Orders? GEM Funds Retreat from Alcoholic Beverages Stocks

By Steven Holden

  • Alcoholic Beverages sector exposure has dropped to multi-year lows, falling below 50% of active GEM funds. 
  • Recent outflows total $700m, with China & HK and Brazil seeing the steepest declines. 
  • Key stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin face consistent month-on-month closures as managers rotate out.

Crypto Hustle

By J Capital Research

  • This week, we review the troubled history of Gryphon Digital Mining (GRYP), the reverse-merger partner of Hut 8’s (HUT) new spin-off, American Bitcoin, soon to trade on Nasdaq as ABTC.

  • HUT will own 80% of the spin-off. GRYP is the junior partner in the deal; its shareholders get 2% of the spin-off.

  • But there is magic somewhere in the numbers: based on GRYP’s own current market cap, the 2% allocation implies a valuation for American Bitcoin that is more than twice the current market cap for all of HUT—even though most of its ABTC’s operations are still currently contained in HUT as a majority owned subsidiary.


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Daily Brief ESG: Not the Timing of Annual Securities Report Disclosure and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Not the Timing of Annual Securities Report Disclosure, but Rather Company Management Objectives


Not the Timing of Annual Securities Report Disclosure, but Rather Company Management Objectives

By Aki Matsumoto

  • For dialogue with shareholders, annual securities reports should be disclosed in English for overseas investors, who are eager to request the pre-AGM submission and have high demand for this information.
  • To change a company to a mindset of dialogue with shareholders rather than controlling AGM, it needs to have a successful experience in converting management to create value through dialogue.
  • It’ll be interesting to see if the traditional values of companies, which has been accustomed to management that does not face shareholders, can be changed in the coming years.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

By Joe Jasper

  • A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
  • We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
  • Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week’s Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.

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Daily Brief ECM: Capitaland Ascendas REIT Placement: DPU and NAV Accretive and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Capitaland Ascendas REIT Placement: DPU and NAV Accretive
  • 52 Toys Development Co. Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • EBOS Group Placement: Past Deals Have Done Well, but This Is a Second One This Year
  • Lens Technology A/H Listing – Diversifying but Is Tarrified for Now
  • Pre-IPO Vigonvita Life Sciences – The Challenges Behind the Pipeline and the Outlook


Capitaland Ascendas REIT Placement: DPU and NAV Accretive

By Nicholas Tan

  • CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR SP)  is looking to raise at least S$500M in a private placement, to fund the acquisition of some valuable properties. 
  • These acquisitions will expand the firm’s portfolio exposure to Singapore and data centers.
  • In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

52 Toys Development Co. Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • 52TOYS Development (TOY HK) is planning to raise about US$200m through its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Citi, Huatai International.
  • 52Toys was established in 2015. The firm is one of the leading IP toy company in China.
  • According to CIC, the company was the second-largest multi-genre Chinese IP toy company in terms of China GMV in 2024.

EBOS Group Placement: Past Deals Have Done Well, but This Is a Second One This Year

By Nicholas Tan

  • Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ) aims to raise around US$564m in a secondary sell-down of shares conducted by the Zuelling family through Sybos Holdings. 
  • This comes on the heels of the April primary placement, whereby EBOS conducted a primary offering to finance a bolt-on acquisition.
  • In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Lens Technology A/H Listing – Diversifying but Is Tarrified for Now

By Sumeet Singh

  • Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.
  • Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Pre-IPO Vigonvita Life Sciences – The Challenges Behind the Pipeline and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to fierce competition/VBP, generic drug business has little value, whose valuation should be zero. So, the future valuation performance of Vigonvita would be mainly based on innovative drug pipeline.
  • Since future demand of COVID-19 drug would decrease sharply, it’s recommended to calculate Vigonvita’s valuation by excluding COVID-19 projects. Vigonvita has to rely on other indication/candidates to support valuation outlook.
  • Post-Money valuation after Series C financing reached RMB4.45 billion.Short-term valuation is about RMB3-6 billion. If LV232 can be successfully developed, there will be greater room for growth in future valuation.

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Daily Brief Credit: Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPoline Projectile and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPoline Projectile
  • MercadoLibre’s Fintech Empire Is Growing: Credit
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Vista Land & Lifescapes – Q1 FY 2025 And FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics


Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPoline Projectile

By Warut Promboon

  • We believe Moody’s simply took the opportunity on the Tariff news to move USA’s rating to be in-line with those of the other two agencies.
  • Though rising rates are not friendly to fixed rate bonds, we believe Asian high-yield bonds remain a good place to park capital in the near term
  • We prefer short duration under 5 years to keep duration low in preparation for an upward pressure on rates in the near term.

MercadoLibre’s Fintech Empire Is Growing: Credit

By Baptista Research

  • MercadoLibre, the leading e-commerce and fintech company in Latin America, has reported its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing strong growth across its major business segments.
  • The company continues to consolidate its position as a key player in both the e-commerce and financial services sectors in the region.
  • On the positive side, MercadoLibre has maintained robust growth in net revenues, reflecting the momentum achieved in 2024.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • US treasuries climbed yesterday, with yields declining in the long end.
  • This came on the back of a solid auction of 2Y notes, as well as a rally in JGBs on signs that the Japanese government may adjust debt issuance to ease market volatility.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST edged down 1 bp to 3.98%, while that on the 10Y UST fell 7 bps to 4.45%. 

Vista Land & Lifescapes – Q1 FY 2025 And FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL) reported FY 2024 and Q1/25 results that were moderately weak in our view.
  • EBITDA continued to grow, supported by top-line and margin expansion.
  • That said, cash flows remained poor, as OCF (after tax and interest) remained negative in FY 2024.

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