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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 18
0

Daily Brief ESG: Going Private Is Not a Problem for a Special Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Going Private Is Not a Problem for a Special Company, but a Common Problem for All Listed Companies

Going Private Is Not a Problem for a Special Company, but a Common Problem for All Listed Companies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While the homework imposed on companies has been increasing year by year, TSE’s market restructuring and “request to raise P/B” have made companies directly aware of the cost of listing.
  • MBO is a company’s choice to go private as a result of the cost of maintaining a public listing. Many companies have yet to reach this conclusion.
  • The conversion of listed subsidiaries into wholly owned subsidiaries is a conclusion that has finally been reached; 230 listed subsidiaries will have to come to some conclusion eventually.

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Understanding the cattle cycle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Understanding the cattle cycle, why US beef prices are at record highs and the role of Australia …
  • Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where’s The AI Effect?
  • Ohayo Japan | Japan GDP Surprises
  • [Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 7/52] Xi’s Meeting with Ma Closed the Anti-Monopoly Chapter

Understanding the cattle cycle, why US beef prices are at record highs and the role of Australia …

By Commodities Focus

  • The cattle cycle is a long-term cyclical fluctuation in cattle inventory driven by economic signals
  • Important metrics to consider include availability of female animals, profitability in feeding and cow-calf sectors
  • Brazil and Australia are the main suppliers of beef to the US, with a large portion of imports being lean trim beef

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where’s The AI Effect?

By William Keating

  • Q424 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to $28.7 billion, up 10% QoQ and up 21.7% YoY and an all time record high quarterly revenue for the segment
  • For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to $99.74 billion, up 7% sequentially, and slightly exceeding our forecasted 5% growth.
  • WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering anticipated AI & technology transition related increases 

Ohayo Japan | Japan GDP Surprises

By Mark Chadwick

  • US market closed for Presidents’ Day; The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.5%
  • European defense stocks soared Monday, with BAE Systems, Thales, and Rheinmetall jumping over 7%, driven by NATO allies’ plans to boost defense budgets
  • Japan’s economy grew 2.8% annually (0.7% QoQ) in the October-December period, exceeding forecasts, driven by external demand

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 7/52] Xi’s Meeting with Ma Closed the Anti-Monopoly Chapter

By Eric Wen

  • Many has cheered or felt relieved over Xi’s weekend meeting with the top Chinese business community. We see a closer relationship between the state apparatus and private enterprises going forward;
  • January 2025 saw improvement in social financing, with meaningful recovery in corporate financing. Recovery for BOSS might be forthcoming;
  • BYD dropped the bombshell in populating autonomous driving service (ADS) in sub-Rmb100K vehicles. We view it as another DeepSeek moment. The biggest loser is Tesla. Fast ADS rollout supports AGI.

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief ECM: Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block – AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block – AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support
  • JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Positives – Transforming
  • Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update – The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds
  • Hi-Think Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block – AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support

By Travis Lundy

  • SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) does a business in AI Cloud&Consulting for the real estate, finance, and Life & Healthcare business. Sony Corp (6758 JP) is selling a stake.
  • The offering is for about US$50mm assuming a 10% discount today’s close. It is not clear how much this was expected but there is a decent-sized short position. 
  • The stock has its ups and downs, and recently decided it liked Q3 earnings and guidance. That bodes well for the offering.

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Positives – Transforming

By Sumeet Singh

  • JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
  • JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used  in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update – The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MIXUE invited experts to conduct calculations based on population data. The result is a maximum of 45,000 stores can be opened. So, MIXUE has reached the growth ceiling in China.
  • The pain point is since MIXUE’s growth depends significantly on its ability to expand store network, once the growth of franchised stores slows down, a performance decline would be inevitable.
  • Due to larger scale effect/stronger supply chains/higher net profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. Higher valuation depends on whether MIXUE is able to make breakthrough in internationalization.

Hi-Think Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Hi-Think Technology International Ltd (2224226D HK)  is looking to raise at least US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • It is a leading Chinese provider of digital intelligence software technology services and solutions serving the international market.
  • It was the largest Chinese provider of software technology services and solutions to the Japanese market.

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief Credit: Weekly News & Views (Suzano and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

By Leandro Gubler

  • The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.
  • Argentina’s inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.
  • We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Himax Sees Chinese Automakers Far Ahead in Adopting Touch Displays; CoPackaged Optics Key for AI/HPC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Himax Sees Chinese Automakers Far Ahead in Adopting Touch Displays; CoPackaged Optics Key for AI/HPC
  • Trip.com (TCOM) 4Q24 Preview: Rising with Travelers, But High in Stock Price
  • Windward’s Marc Chalfin and Jay Upadhyay describes the overhaul and new vision at Groupon $GRPN
  • Illumina Inc.: Is its Transition to NovaSeq X Series Noteworthy?
  • Genpact Limited: Will Its Advancement in Data, Tech, and AI Help Alter The Playing Field?
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Feb-2025): Apple may assemble iPhones in Indonesia to comply with local rules.
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Visibility and Quality Improving
  • Kilburn Engineering Limited Q3 FY25 Update: Strategic Acquisitions and Strong Growth
  • Ralph Lauren: Key City Ecosystem & Global Reach As a Global Growth Strategy!
  • Haitian Flavouring: Looking for Soy Sauces on the Ground

Himax Sees Chinese Automakers Far Ahead in Adopting Touch Displays; CoPackaged Optics Key for AI/HPC

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Himax 4Q24 Results Show Auto Display Surge — Structural Growth Story Visible with Touch Panel Usage in Vehicles Soaring
  • China vs. the Rest of the World: Who’s Moving Faster? China Automakers Far Ahead in Display Sophistication
  • Himax on Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) — A Critical New Technology for AI and HPC Processing

Trip.com (TCOM) 4Q24 Preview: Rising with Travelers, But High in Stock Price

By Ming Lu

  • In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
  • We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024.
  • We are confident in the company’s financial performance, but the stock price is overvalued.

Windward’s Marc Chalfin and Jay Upadhyay describes the overhaul and new vision at Groupon $GRPN

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Groupon is a lead generation tool for local service businesses that offers discounted deals.
  • The speaker, from the hedge fund Windward, believes Groupon presents a highly asymmetric and convex investment opportunity with potential for a 5 to 1 risk-reward ratio.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Illumina Inc.: Is its Transition to NovaSeq X Series Noteworthy?

By Baptista Research

  • Illumina, a leading genomic sequencing company, reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, marking a slight revenue increase of 1% year-over-year to $1.1 billion.
  • This growth was primarily driven by high throughput sequencing consumables as the company continues to shift its customer base towards its new NovaSeq X series of instruments.
  • The company placed 91 NovaSeq X instruments in the quarter, reaching an installed base of 630, and enjoyed a robust pull-through performance, averaging $1.3 million per system in 2024.

Genpact Limited: Will Its Advancement in Data, Tech, and AI Help Alter The Playing Field?

By Baptista Research

  • Genpact Limited reported a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, with revenue reaching $1.25 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase.
  • The company showcased a particularly impressive growth in their Data-Tech-AI segment, which rose by 12% year-over-year, showcasing the potential and growth of this sector within the organization.
  • Additionally, Digital Operations saw a 6% year-over-year increase, indicating strong demand across their business segments.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Feb-2025): Apple may assemble iPhones in Indonesia to comply with local rules.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Apple may move iPhone assembly to Indonesia to comply with local content rules and sales ban, shifting focus from Vietnam to India
  • India’s AI ambitions hindered by GPU shortages and high costs, while 5G market projected to grow significantly by 2025
  • BYD reveals ‘God’s Eye’ smart driving system with budget-friendly aims, as Micron set to challenge Samsung in HBM3E market

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Visibility and Quality Improving

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia management painted a relatively positive picture of improvements across its microloan portfolio in 2H2024, with strong growth in recoveries during the year.  
  • Loan growth was driven by corporate and consumer loans, as the bank slowed micro and small-sized loan growth with ongoing restructuring, which will continue in 2025 and front-loaded in 1Q2025. 
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia remains unique in its exposure to micro and ultra-micro lending in Indonesia, where growth should resume in 2025. Foreign ownership and valuations stand at 15-year lows. 

Kilburn Engineering Limited Q3 FY25 Update: Strategic Acquisitions and Strong Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Kilburn Engineering’s Q3 FY25 revenue rose 25.1% YoY to ₹911 million with EBITDA up 30.1%, driven by strategic acquisitions and a robust order backlog exceeding ₹3,600 million.
  • Robust financials, an expanding order book, and targeted acquisitions enhance growth prospects and operational efficiency, solidifying Kilburn Engineering’s market position.
  • Investors gain confidence as Kilburn Engineering’s disciplined execution and diversified strategy signal sustainable long-term revenue and margin expansion.

Ralph Lauren: Key City Ecosystem & Global Reach As a Global Growth Strategy!

By Baptista Research

  • Ralph Lauren’s third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results reflect a blend of positive momentum and strategic growth, tempered by an acknowledgment of ongoing market challenges.
  • The company reported a double digit revenue increase, significantly surpassing its own expectations across all geographies, indicating robust brand momentum and effective strategic investments, particularly noticeable during the peak holiday season.
  • This was facilitated by an agile global supply chain that successfully met heightened consumer demand.

Haitian Flavouring: Looking for Soy Sauces on the Ground

By Ming Lu

  • We have visited three supermarkets in Shanghai, looking for Haitian Sauces.
  • We believe Haitian is obviously the top brand among soy sauces.
  • However, there are many competitors and Lee Kum Kee is the most important.

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: JIC Launches Shinko (6967) Deal At ¥5 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JIC Launches Shinko (6967) Deal At ¥5,920/Share
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March
  • CVC Extends Macromill (3978) Bid and Invites Two Funds To Reinvest – More Interesting Than You Think
  • Base Food (2936 JP): Partial Tender Offer at JPY688
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Privatisation Expected From The Controlling Family
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$1.58
  • Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer
  • Daemyung Sono Group: Close to Acquiring the Controlling Stake in T’Way Air
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Privatisation from the Controlling Shareholder?
  • A Real-World Take on the Market Worries Around the Samsung Life Act Proposal

JIC Launches Shinko (6967) Deal At ¥5,920/Share

By Travis Lundy

  • Today quite late, the JIC Consortium announced the launch of the Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer expected “mid-February”. Price is still ¥5,920/share. 
  • This is basically going to be all arbs and passive now. And arbs gonna arb.
  • Congrats if you bought the lows in late November early December. Great trade. Congrats if you bought the last delay dip. Now we can all go home.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

By Brian Freitas

  • Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.
  • With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.
  • The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the Hang Seng Index over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.

CVC Extends Macromill (3978) Bid and Invites Two Funds To Reinvest – More Interesting Than You Think

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, the closing date of the Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) by CVC saw the tender offer extended by an extra 10 days with new news.
  • Price had been declared final. One very large shareholder had said they would not tender. Two more were negotiating. Those two will now tender and reinvest in the back end.
  • This does not mean the tender offer is a done deal, but it is worth examining.

Base Food (2936 JP): Partial Tender Offer at JPY688

By Arun George

  • Base Food (2936 JP) announced a partial tender offer from MBF Acceleration, the largest shareholder.
  • The offer is for a maximum of 3.7 million shares (6.97% ownership ratio) at JPY688 per share, a 23.3% premium to the last close price.
  • The offer has no minimum acceptance condition, and the price is reasonable. The estimated minimum proration is 21.43%.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Privatisation Expected From The Controlling Family

By David Blennerhassett

  • Small-Cap property developer Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code
  • Soundwill is controlled as to 74.97% by Grace Foo (ED), and her descendants, Wai Ling Chan (deputy chairman), and Hing Tat Chan (chairman). 
  • Soundwill is trading at a staggering 0.08x P/B, with the majority of its book value tied up in investment properties.

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$1.58

By Arun George

  • Tam Jai International (2217 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP) at HK$1.58 per share, a 75.6% premium to the last close price. 
  • The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal. 

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer

By David Blennerhassett

Daemyung Sono Group: Close to Acquiring the Controlling Stake in T’Way Air

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 17 February, it was announced that the Daemyung Sono Group is  close to acquiring the controlling stake in T’Way Air (091810 KS) from Yelimdang.
  • As the negotiations between the two sides have come to a near agreement, Daemyung Sono is expected to be able to appoint nine directors at the next upcoming AGM.
  • Typically in cases like this in Korea, the near term impact would be decline in share prices of T’Way Air and T’Way Holdings due to lack of an M&A play.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Privatisation from the Controlling Shareholder?

By Arun George

  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement relating to inside information and pursuant to the Codes on Takeovers and Mergers.” 
  • It is likely that the controlling shareholder (Foo Family Trust), representing 74.94% of outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme. 
  • While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test necessitates an attractive offer. We estimate a potential offer price range of HK$7.53-19.44.

A Real-World Take on the Market Worries Around the Samsung Life Act Proposal

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Rebuilding Korea Party’s hints about this bill since Thursday are seen as a key reason Samsung Electronics’ stock has stalled, despite hype around affiliate shareholder returns.
  • With polls dipping, Lee is shifting right. Given the political shifts, pushing through the controversial Samsung Life Act seems unlikely for now.
  • Instead of focusing on legislative chances, we should see Samsung Electronics’ stock stall as a short-term entry opportunity ahead of the shareholder return announcement

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief Macro: Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?
  • Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!
  • India – Stay Overweight But Hedge
  • U.S. Rig Count Continues to Climb, Rises for the Third Consecutive Week
  • US vs EU Part 3: Russia/Ukraine
  • The Week Ahead – Give Peace A Chance?
  • Kerala Rubber Farmers In Long Drawn Price Tussle With Tire Industry
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Kalbe Farma, Indosat & AI, and Bank Rakyat Indonesia
  • FOMC View: One 25 Bps Easing in Late 2025 and Two 25bps Easings in 2026
  • Global FX, Commodities and EM: Implications of Russia-Ukraine cease-fire

Why Are Bond Yields Rising As Rates Are Cut?

By The Bid

  • Fed interest rate policies have not followed traditional patterns, with long-term rates decoupling from short-term rates
  • The economic shock of Covid-19 has led to increased focus on inflation and uncertainty in the bond market
  • Fed Chairman Powell’s actions and fiscal policy responses have contributed to changing economic dynamics and interest rate outlooks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Steno Signals #185 – Reciprocal Tariffs Are GOOD News! Here Is Why!

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we cut through the noise and deliver contrarian takes on macroeconomics, liquidity, tradeable themes, and everything in between.
  • Reciprocal tariffs is a concept you’ll need to familiarize yourself with.
  • Despite Trump’s press conference last week being a confusing mess, lacking clarity on geographies, products, and specific tariff/VAT rates targeted in this tit-for-tat approach, the aim seems crystal clear: Trump wants a global response, and it could very well lead to globally lower tariffs and VAT rates.

India – Stay Overweight But Hedge

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Maintain structural overweight on Indian equities but hedge against rupee weakness
  • While buy and hold investors should be looking to buy on dip, the attraction of India as a hedge against Trump’s  global trade war and China has diminished. 
  • That said fundamentals – corporate and bank balance sheets – are strong, the corporate profit cycle is in upswing and the real cost of capital is within the normal range.  

U.S. Rig Count Continues to Climb, Rises for the Third Consecutive Week

By Suhas Reddy

  • The U.S. oil and gas rig count rose for the third consecutive week, increasing by 2 to 588 for the week ending 14/Feb.
  • For the week ending 07/Feb, U.S. oil production moderately rose to 13.49m bpd from 13.48m bpd the week prior.
  • The number of  U.S. oil rigs rose by 1 to 481, while gas rigs grew by 1 to 101. Rig count in the Permian basin rose by 1 to 304.  

US vs EU Part 3: Russia/Ukraine

By Alastair Newton

  • The misinterpretation of the recent Trump/Putin phone conversation by the commentariat partly explains why markets are currently ahead of the curve on Russia/Ukraine issues.
  • As long as European leaders continue to deny the state of transatlantic relations, the situation remains uncertain.
  • Given the current circumstances, investors should proceed with caution, keeping in mind the principle of ‘caveat emptor’ (buyer beware).

The Week Ahead – Give Peace A Chance?

By Nomura – The Week Ahead

  • Eurodollar trading up towards highest level since late January, European equities surging
  • Ongoing threat of US tariffs and sticky inflation data partially offsetting positivity
  • Discussion with economists on implications of potential peace deal, tariffs, and upcoming UK data in Europe and UK.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Kerala Rubber Farmers In Long Drawn Price Tussle With Tire Industry

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Smallholders keep inventories as tire makers make guarded purchases  
  • Wintering over, next season may start by March end  
  • Indian Government ups Budget allocation for Rubber Board

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Kalbe Farma, Indosat & AI, and Bank Rakyat Indonesia

By Angus Mackintosh

FOMC View: One 25 Bps Easing in Late 2025 and Two 25bps Easings in 2026

By Alex Ng

  • Strength in January CPI does in part reflect residual seasonality, but continued stalling of progress in yr/yr growth is of concern.
  • This revives concerns that the economy may need to slow to return inflation to the 2.0% target, something tariffs are likely to make more difficult.
  • Uncertainty is high, but we now expect only one 25bps easing in 2025, which is likely to come late.  We expect the Fed to remain cautious through 2026.

Global FX, Commodities and EM: Implications of Russia-Ukraine cease-fire

By At Any Rate

  • Baseline assumption of ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in Year Ahead outlook published in November
  • Potential for restarting Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe as part of negotiated end of conflict
  • Estimated additional 40 bcm per annum of supply to Europe, impacting TTF price forecast in 2025

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief Australia: Sigma Healthcare, ANZ Group Holdings, National Australia Bank and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact
  • EQD | ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Announcement on 20 Feb 2025
  • EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see eight ADDs and six DELs for ASX 300.
  • The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 7th March 2025.

EQD | ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Announcement on 20 Feb 2025

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) is set to announce its First Quarter APS 330 Release on Thursday 20 February 2025.
  • Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.
  • Historically, ANZ has experienced an average price move of 1.9% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a similar move this time.

EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • National Australia Bank (NAB AU) is set to announce its First Quarter Trading Update on Wednesday 19 February 2025.
  • Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.
  • Historically, NAB has experienced an average price move of 2.2% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a slightly larger move.

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief South Korea: T’Way Air, Samsung Electronics, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Daemyung Sono Group: Close to Acquiring the Controlling Stake in T’Way Air
  • A Real-World Take on the Market Worries Around the Samsung Life Act Proposal
  • Kospi Index Options Weekly (February 10 – 14): Call Volumes Rebound

Daemyung Sono Group: Close to Acquiring the Controlling Stake in T’Way Air

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 17 February, it was announced that the Daemyung Sono Group is  close to acquiring the controlling stake in T’Way Air (091810 KS) from Yelimdang.
  • As the negotiations between the two sides have come to a near agreement, Daemyung Sono is expected to be able to appoint nine directors at the next upcoming AGM.
  • Typically in cases like this in Korea, the near term impact would be decline in share prices of T’Way Air and T’Way Holdings due to lack of an M&A play.

A Real-World Take on the Market Worries Around the Samsung Life Act Proposal

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Rebuilding Korea Party’s hints about this bill since Thursday are seen as a key reason Samsung Electronics’ stock has stalled, despite hype around affiliate shareholder returns.
  • With polls dipping, Lee is shifting right. Given the political shifts, pushing through the controversial Samsung Life Act seems unlikely for now.
  • Instead of focusing on legislative chances, we should see Samsung Electronics’ stock stall as a short-term entry opportunity ahead of the shareholder return announcement

Kospi Index Options Weekly (February 10 – 14): Call Volumes Rebound

By John Ley

  • Very low volatility rally with Kospi up 2.63% but still 7% below the 52-week high.
  • Implied vols moving in opposition to the rally, dropping 1 point on the week.  
  • Call volumes rebounded significantly with the most active Call strike trading more than twice as much as the most active Put strike.

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Capitaland India Trust, ESR-LOGOS REIT, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Wirecard AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Kerala Rubber Farmers In Long Drawn Price Tussle With Tire Industry
  • REIT Watch – Data Centre S-REITs report growth in latest results
  • Marco Polo Marine CEO increases stake; ESR REIT buys back 5 million units
  • Recent Market Highlights in the Real Estate Value Chain
  • Accounting Quality Is an Indicator of Stock Performance

Kerala Rubber Farmers In Long Drawn Price Tussle With Tire Industry

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Smallholders keep inventories as tire makers make guarded purchases  
  • Wintering over, next season may start by March end  
  • Indian Government ups Budget allocation for Rubber Board

REIT Watch – Data Centre S-REITs report growth in latest results

By Geoff Howie

  • Keppel DC REIT’s FY2024 net property income rose 6.3% to S$260.3 million, with DPU increasing 0.7% to S$0.09451.
  • Digital Core REIT’s FY2024 distributable income rose 10.9% to US$46.0 million, driven by robust cloud and AI demand.
  • Mapletree Industrial Trust’s third-quarter FY2024 DPU increased 1.5%, with growth from Osaka Data Centre and Tokyo facility acquisition.

Marco Polo Marine CEO increases stake; ESR REIT buys back 5 million units

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks, with a net inflow of S$63 million from Feb 7 to Feb 13.
  • Singapore Telecommunications saw a net institutional inflow of S$112 million, linked to a S$643 million green loan.
  • Marco Polo Marine’s CEO increased his stake to 4.80% after acquiring 500,000 shares at S$0.054 each.

Recent Market Highlights in the Real Estate Value Chain

By Geoff Howie

  • Singapore’s real estate sector grew 3.5% YoY in 4Q24, with a 0.2% expansion for the year 2024.
  • Hongkong Land aims to double profits and AUM to US$100 billion by 2035, focusing on ultra-premium properties.
  • Tuan Sing, Wee Hur, LHN, PropNex, and Centurion Corporation saw significant ADT growth over the past seven weeks.

Accounting Quality Is an Indicator of Stock Performance

By Mark Jolley

  • Account manipulation activity always negatively impacts future earnings, and therefore stock returns.
  • Research by Transparently.ai clearly indicates a strong link between accounting quality and stock performance
  • Difference in future 12-month returns between decile for lowest accounting risk companies and that for highest risk is almost 30%

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