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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 06
0

Daily Brief China: Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals, Guming Holdings, PegBio, Pentamaster International, SHEIN, Gold, Greentown China, Suntec REIT, WH Group, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍
  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A (Supposedly) Straightforward GLP-1 Challenger Story
  • Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Light Offer but Lack of Opposition Ahead of the Vote
  • SHEIN: Back in India in Alliance with Reliance, Amid Woes in the West
  • EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (05-Feb-2025): CapitaLand buys Osaka site for $700M data centre.
  • StubWorld: WH Group (288 HK) IPOs Smithfield (SFD US). Now What?
  • Tariffs Will Affect Tire Industry; Rubber Market

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index. There are a few migrations between the indices.
  • We estimate turnover of 3.8% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated net round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.8bn).
  • The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have underperformed the forecast deletes. For the STAR100 Index outright changes, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a lot.

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A (Supposedly) Straightforward GLP-1 Challenger Story

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio is looking to raise at least USD 100m via its Hong Kong IPO.
  • In this note, we looked at the company’s fundamentals, particularly its core product PB-117.
  • We think the story might look simple as a straightforward GLP-1 challenger but there are quite a number of concerns as we dig into the company’s story.

Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Light Offer but Lack of Opposition Ahead of the Vote

By Arun George

  • Pentamaster International (1665 HK)’s IFA opines that Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital’s HK$1.00 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 February. 
  • The IFA analysis is biased because it conveniently ignores a relative valuation analysis, which would show that the final offer is unattractive compared to its global peers.
  • Disappointingly, there is little minority opposition to an arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging valuation multiple discrepancies across two exchanges. 

SHEIN: Back in India in Alliance with Reliance, Amid Woes in the West

By Devi Subhakesan

  • SHEIN (1895674D HK) returns to India after a five-year hiatus under a license agreement with Reliance Industries (RIL IN) owned Reliance Retail ltd.
  • India’s vast, untapped market for fast fashion, driven by a large and growing young population, rising disposable incomes, and increased e-commerce penetration presents an attractive growth opportunity for Shein.
  • Shein faces growing challenges in the US due to new trade restrictions. Its partnership with Reliance could serve as a strategic move to develop alternative supply chains outside China.

EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month

By John Ley

  • All markets surveyed here tend to see price weakness along with increased volatility in the second half of February. 
  • SP500 was the only market for which realized vol in January was greater than implied at the end of December.
  • Gold, SP500 and SPASX200 have all gone over 450 days without a 10% correction. Nifty moving in opposite direction, 127 days without a 10% rally.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Health and Happiness (H&H)
  • In the US, the December JOLTS job openings unexpectedly declined to 7.6 mn (8.0 mn e / 8.2 mn revised p). The JOLTS lay-off and quits rates were stable at 1.1% and 2.0%, respectively, in December.
  • Treasuries rallied yesterday, with yields declining 4-5 bps across the curve, on account of the weaker-than-expected JOLTS report.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (05-Feb-2025): CapitaLand buys Osaka site for $700M data centre.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • CapitaLand Investment secures Osaka site for $700M data centre project, expanding presence in Asia’s growing tech market.
  • Singapore’s Temasek boosts investment in CenterSquare’s commercial real estate debt fund with $200M injection for growth.
  • Gordon Tang faces setback as Suntec REIT buyout likely to fail with extended deadline, raising uncertainty in real estate market.

StubWorld: WH Group (288 HK) IPOs Smithfield (SFD US). Now What?

By David Blennerhassett

  • After reducing the IPO price, and the placement size, WH Group (288 HK) has now completed the spin-off of Smithfield Foods (SFD US).
  • Preceding my comments on the WH Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Tariffs Will Affect Tire Industry; Rubber Market

By Farah Miller

  • Tire industry to be a collateral damage in the tariff battle  
  • 91% of projected light truck tire requirement is import reliant  
  • Trade balance tipping towards China and Canada  

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Feb 06
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Trane Technologies , Samsung C&T, Marco Polo Marine, Diffusion Engineers, Karman Holdings, Shinmaywa Industries, L3Harris Technologies , WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings, Karamtara Engineering Ltd, Talgo SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Trane Technologies: Can HVAC Service Revenue Outweigh Market Cyclicality? – Major Drivers
  • Acquittal of Lee Jae-Yong and Impact on Samsung C&T
  • kopi-C with Marco Polo Marine’s CEO: ‘We want to be an offshore wind leader in Asia’
  • The Beat Ideas: Diffusion Ltd: A Deep Dive into a Diversified Industrial Play
  • Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Terms Set for Space & Defense IPO Valuing Company up to $2.6b
  • Shinmaywa Industries (7224 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • L3Harris Technologies: Space & International Markets Expansion As A Key Growth Catalyst!
  • Willscot Holdings Corp (WSC) – Tuesday, Nov 5, 2024
  • Karamtara Engineering Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Talgo Takeover: A Speculative Opportunity

Trane Technologies: Can HVAC Service Revenue Outweigh Market Cyclicality? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Trane Technologies reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting strong execution across its business segments and demonstrating the benefits of its purpose-driven strategy focused on innovation and sustainability.
  • The company achieved 10% organic revenue growth, expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 110 basis points, and increased adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 20%.
  • For the full year, Trane Technologies reported 12% organic revenue growth and 24% adjusted EPS growth, affirming its ability to outperform peer groups in these critical financial metrics.

Acquittal of Lee Jae-Yong and Impact on Samsung C&T

By Douglas Kim

  • Now that Lee Jae-Yong’s legal problems appear to have finally have been resolved, it could positively impact Samsung C&T, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung Biologics.
  • Given the fact that Samsung Electronics and Samsung Biologics are the two most important drivers of Samsung C&T, this could positively benefit the valuation of Samsung C&T. 
  • Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&T suggests NAV of 38.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 217,747 won which is 84% higher from current levels.

kopi-C with Marco Polo Marine’s CEO: ‘We want to be an offshore wind leader in Asia’

By Geoff Howie

  • Marco Polo Marine shifted focus to the offshore wind sector in Asia, achieving profitability with S$123.5 million revenue and S$21.7 million profit for 2024.
  • The company repurposed assets from offshore oil and gas to offshore wind, expanding operations in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.
  • Marco Polo Marine is enhancing its infrastructure with a new commissioning service operation vessel and a fourth drydock to support offshore wind projects.

The Beat Ideas: Diffusion Ltd: A Deep Dive into a Diversified Industrial Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Diffusion Engineers (DIFFNKG IN) is expanding its value chain by integrating heavy engineering solutions, enhancing its product portfolio, and catering to diverse customer needs across core industries like cement, steel.
  • With significant investments in manufacturing facilities and a target to achieve 20% of revenue from exports, the company is set to capitalize on domestic and international market opportunities.
  • A focus on developing specialized, high-performance consumables and components positions Diffusion Engineers to meet increasing demand while reducing reliance on imports and boosting profitability.

Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Terms Set for Space & Defense IPO Valuing Company up to $2.6b

By IPO Boutique

  • Private Equity backed Karman Holdings set terms for its IPO with a scheduled February 14th debut. 
  • The company will net $160m if the offering priced at the midpoint of the range and selling shareholders will obtain the remaining $240m in this $400m cash-raise total transaction. 
  • The valuation of this company came in lighter than expected. We will continue to dive into the metrics of this deal and provide additional research, color and commentary.

Shinmaywa Industries (7224 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased YoY due to growth in Special Purpose Truck and Parking Systems, despite Industrial Machinery decline.
  • Operating profit rose YoY, driven by revenue growth, selling price revisions, and yen depreciation benefits.
  • Full-year FY03/25 forecast revised with a JPY5.0bn revenue decrease, maintaining profit projections despite market challenges.

L3Harris Technologies: Space & International Markets Expansion As A Key Growth Catalyst!

By Baptista Research

  • L3Harris Technologies’ fourth-quarter earnings call provides a comprehensive overview of its performance and strategic positioning, reflecting both achievements and challenges.
  • The company concluded 2024 with a record backlog, aligning with its Trusted Disruptor strategy and indicating a strong market position for future endeavors.
  • This strategic framework positions L3Harris between traditional primes and new entrants, leveraging advancements in AI and autonomy to meet evolving national security requirements.

Willscot Holdings Corp (WSC) – Tuesday, Nov 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Report is not investment advice and does not solicit buying or selling securities
  • Based on public market data as of report date
  • Readers should conduct own research and seek advice from professionals before making investment decisions

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Karamtara Engineering Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Karamtara Engineering Ltd (6589452Z IN) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, IIFL, JM Fin.
  • Karamtara Engineering Limited (KEL) is a backward integrated manufacturer of products for renewable energy and transmission lines sectors.
  • According to F&S, KEL was a leading manufacturer of solar mounting structures and tracker components in India and the largest in terms of installed capacity in FY24 and 1H25.

Talgo Takeover: A Speculative Opportunity

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Government intervention is a key factor in Talgo’s auction, with Spain favoring local ownership and previously blocking a Hungarian bid, leading to legal challenges and a drop in share price.
  • Talgo’s unique variable gauge technology allows trains to switch between European and Iberian track widths, reducing transit times and maintenance costs, making it a competitive and highly adaptable asset.
  • Shares look fairly valued and downside looks limited. Consensus TP is 3.6% above the last closing share price, while upside in case of €5/offer is 28%.

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Feb 06
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Young Poong, PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, Red Hawk Mining , Arras Minerals , Predictive Discovery, Chugoku Marine Paints, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Cemex SAB de CV, Giga Metals , Arrow Exploration Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Must Asset Mgmt Goes Activist on Young Poong
  • PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Free Float to Determine Global Index Inclusion
  • Red Hawk (RHK AU): Fortescue Secures 78% And Bumps to A$1.20/Share
  • Arras Minerals: Promising Exploration Results Drive Stock up +96% YTD
  • All Eyes on Predictive’s Bankan
  • Chugoku Marine Paints (4617 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Tariffs Will Affect Tire Industry; Rubber Market
  • U.S. Tariffs and Their Potential Impact on Cemex and Pemex
  • GIGA: A Strategic Nickel Play Backed by Scale and Upside
  • Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Appraisal drilling results at Alberta Llanos unlock full field development with horizontal wells

Must Asset Mgmt Goes Activist on Young Poong

By Douglas Kim

  • Must Asset Management, a 3% shareholder of Young Poong (000670 KS), started to go activist on the company on 5 February.
  • Based on current market cap, this would represent a P/B of 0.2x using the consolidated controlling interest equity of 3.9 trillion won!
  • There is some speculation that Must Asset Mgmt may form an alliance with Chairman Choi’s family as it proposed to Young Poong to recommend outside directors.

PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Free Float to Determine Global Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Low free float market cap has kept PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) out of a major global index so far.
  • An increase in float recently to just above 15% could result in the inclusion of the stock in the index in February and that will trigger large passive buying.
  • There is positioning in the stock, and the future stock path will depend on whether it is added to the index or not.

Red Hawk (RHK AU): Fortescue Secures 78% And Bumps to A$1.20/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28th January, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) launched a A$1.05/share off-market Offer for Red Hawk Mining (RHK AU), increasing to A$1.20/share if securing 75% of shares out. 
  • Red Hawks has announced Fortescue now has 78%, and has bumped terms to A$1.20/share. The Offer remains subject to “no prescribed occurrences“, which should be waived by the 17th Feb.
  • The Offer remains open until the 3 March. Unless extended. Fortescue intends to delist Red Hawk. 

Arras Minerals: Promising Exploration Results Drive Stock up +96% YTD

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Since the start of 2025, Arras has released two batches of drill results from its exploration activities in Kazakhstan. Early results look very promising and the stock has reacted accordingly.
  • 2025 is going to be a very busy year of newsflow for Arras with a lot of optionality to drive a further re-rating.
  • Arras remains a high risk/reward junior exploration company with a market cap of only 33M USD. Arras is targeting both copper and gold.

All Eyes on Predictive’s Bankan

By Money of Mine

  • Predictive Discovery receives a strategic investment of $69 million from Lundeen and Zejin, leading to a 13% increase in stock price
  • The funds will be used for advancing the DFS at the Bankhan gold project in Guinea and other development activities
  • Predictive’s Bankan project has a 5.4 million ounce resource and a 3 million ounce reserve, with an average production profile of 269,000 ounces per annum over 12 years at an AISC of $1,100 per ounce

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Chugoku Marine Paints (4617 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • CMP’s cumulative Q3 FY03/25 sales reached JPY96.1bn, driven by marine and industrial paints, despite container paint declines.
  • Operating profit increased to JPY11.6bn, with improved GPM, despite higher raw material and transportation costs.
  • CMP revised its FY03/25 forecast upwards, expecting JPY130.0bn sales and JPY13.5bn net income, citing foreign exchange gains.

Tariffs Will Affect Tire Industry; Rubber Market

By Farah Miller

  • Tire industry to be a collateral damage in the tariff battle  
  • 91% of projected light truck tire requirement is import reliant  
  • Trade balance tipping towards China and Canada  

U.S. Tariffs and Their Potential Impact on Cemex and Pemex

By Leandro Gubler

  • Given the scale of these trade flows, any imposition of tariffs by the U.S. could create significant ripple effects on Mexico’s economic growth, investment climate, and employment
  • In LTM September 2024, Cemex generated ~31% of its revenues in Mexico and 31% in the U.S., while 44% of its EBITDA came from Mexico and 29% from the U.S
  • The U.S. market represents a meaningful portion of Pemex’s crude exports. In 2024, the company exported 460 kbd, accounting for 57.1% of total exports and 26.5% of total production

GIGA: A Strategic Nickel Play Backed by Scale and Upside

By Atrium Research

  • The Turnagain Project is one of the world’s largest undeveloped nickel-cobalt sulphide deposits, boasting a robust PFS with an NPV7% of $574M and significant leverage to rising nickel prices.
  • Exploration planned for 2025 aims to identify new high-grade zones, further enhancing project economics and scalability.
  • The project has a low C1 cash cost of $4.70/lb Ni (after by-product credits) and produces a high-purity concentrate.

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Appraisal drilling results at Alberta Llanos unlock full field development with horizontal wells

By Auctus Advisors

  • Following the discovery well, Arrow has drilled two new vertical wells at Alberta Llanos, effectively delineating the field.
  • The AB-2 well at the far northern limit of the field encountered multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals with good reservoir characteristics but came in structurally lower than anticipated, resulting in sub-economic oil rates from the Carbonera sandstones.
  • Additional zones can be completed at a later stage.

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Feb 06
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Trane Technologies , Samsung C&T, Marco Polo Marine, Diffusion Engineers, Karman Holdings, Shinmaywa Industries, L3Harris Technologies , WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings, Karamtara Engineering Ltd, Talgo SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Trane Technologies: Can HVAC Service Revenue Outweigh Market Cyclicality? – Major Drivers
  • Acquittal of Lee Jae-Yong and Impact on Samsung C&T
  • kopi-C with Marco Polo Marine’s CEO: ‘We want to be an offshore wind leader in Asia’
  • The Beat Ideas: Diffusion Ltd: A Deep Dive into a Diversified Industrial Play
  • Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Terms Set for Space & Defense IPO Valuing Company up to $2.6b
  • Shinmaywa Industries (7224 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • L3Harris Technologies: Space & International Markets Expansion As A Key Growth Catalyst!
  • Willscot Holdings Corp (WSC) – Tuesday, Nov 5, 2024
  • Karamtara Engineering Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Talgo Takeover: A Speculative Opportunity

Trane Technologies: Can HVAC Service Revenue Outweigh Market Cyclicality? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Trane Technologies reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting strong execution across its business segments and demonstrating the benefits of its purpose-driven strategy focused on innovation and sustainability.
  • The company achieved 10% organic revenue growth, expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 110 basis points, and increased adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 20%.
  • For the full year, Trane Technologies reported 12% organic revenue growth and 24% adjusted EPS growth, affirming its ability to outperform peer groups in these critical financial metrics.

Acquittal of Lee Jae-Yong and Impact on Samsung C&T

By Douglas Kim

  • Now that Lee Jae-Yong’s legal problems appear to have finally have been resolved, it could positively impact Samsung C&T, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung Biologics.
  • Given the fact that Samsung Electronics and Samsung Biologics are the two most important drivers of Samsung C&T, this could positively benefit the valuation of Samsung C&T. 
  • Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&T suggests NAV of 38.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 217,747 won which is 84% higher from current levels.

kopi-C with Marco Polo Marine’s CEO: ‘We want to be an offshore wind leader in Asia’

By Geoff Howie

  • Marco Polo Marine shifted focus to the offshore wind sector in Asia, achieving profitability with S$123.5 million revenue and S$21.7 million profit for 2024.
  • The company repurposed assets from offshore oil and gas to offshore wind, expanding operations in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.
  • Marco Polo Marine is enhancing its infrastructure with a new commissioning service operation vessel and a fourth drydock to support offshore wind projects.

The Beat Ideas: Diffusion Ltd: A Deep Dive into a Diversified Industrial Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Diffusion Engineers (DIFFNKG IN) is expanding its value chain by integrating heavy engineering solutions, enhancing its product portfolio, and catering to diverse customer needs across core industries like cement, steel.
  • With significant investments in manufacturing facilities and a target to achieve 20% of revenue from exports, the company is set to capitalize on domestic and international market opportunities.
  • A focus on developing specialized, high-performance consumables and components positions Diffusion Engineers to meet increasing demand while reducing reliance on imports and boosting profitability.

Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Terms Set for Space & Defense IPO Valuing Company up to $2.6b

By IPO Boutique

  • Private Equity backed Karman Holdings set terms for its IPO with a scheduled February 14th debut. 
  • The company will net $160m if the offering priced at the midpoint of the range and selling shareholders will obtain the remaining $240m in this $400m cash-raise total transaction. 
  • The valuation of this company came in lighter than expected. We will continue to dive into the metrics of this deal and provide additional research, color and commentary.

Shinmaywa Industries (7224 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased YoY due to growth in Special Purpose Truck and Parking Systems, despite Industrial Machinery decline.
  • Operating profit rose YoY, driven by revenue growth, selling price revisions, and yen depreciation benefits.
  • Full-year FY03/25 forecast revised with a JPY5.0bn revenue decrease, maintaining profit projections despite market challenges.

L3Harris Technologies: Space & International Markets Expansion As A Key Growth Catalyst!

By Baptista Research

  • L3Harris Technologies’ fourth-quarter earnings call provides a comprehensive overview of its performance and strategic positioning, reflecting both achievements and challenges.
  • The company concluded 2024 with a record backlog, aligning with its Trusted Disruptor strategy and indicating a strong market position for future endeavors.
  • This strategic framework positions L3Harris between traditional primes and new entrants, leveraging advancements in AI and autonomy to meet evolving national security requirements.

Willscot Holdings Corp (WSC) – Tuesday, Nov 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Report is not investment advice and does not solicit buying or selling securities
  • Based on public market data as of report date
  • Readers should conduct own research and seek advice from professionals before making investment decisions

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Karamtara Engineering Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Karamtara Engineering Ltd (6589452Z IN) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, IIFL, JM Fin.
  • Karamtara Engineering Limited (KEL) is a backward integrated manufacturer of products for renewable energy and transmission lines sectors.
  • According to F&S, KEL was a leading manufacturer of solar mounting structures and tracker components in India and the largest in terms of installed capacity in FY24 and 1H25.

Talgo Takeover: A Speculative Opportunity

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Government intervention is a key factor in Talgo’s auction, with Spain favoring local ownership and previously blocking a Hungarian bid, leading to legal challenges and a drop in share price.
  • Talgo’s unique variable gauge technology allows trains to switch between European and Iberian track widths, reducing transit times and maintenance costs, making it a competitive and highly adaptable asset.
  • Shares look fairly valued and downside looks limited. Consensus TP is 3.6% above the last closing share price, while upside in case of €5/offer is 28%.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Feb 06
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shibaura Electronics, Pentamaster International, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300
  • Pentamaster (1665 HK): 28th Feb Vote On Parent’s Offer
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?
  • Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?
  • AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?
  • AMD 4Q24 In-Line, Margins Improving. AI GPU Roadmap for 2025 Is Impressive and Accelerating. Buy.
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity
  • Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Light Offer but Lack of Opposition Ahead of the Vote
  • Alphabet 4Q’24 Update

Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Taiwanese passive components maker Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced its Board had approved the launching of a Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). 
  • It turns out YAGEO approached them in October, Shibaura stonewalled for 3mos, required an NDA to meet, and refused to budge. METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines were likely ignored.
  • This could set off a flurry of activity including competition, an auction, promises of dividends, and who knows what. It will be exciting but it’s not C&F.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300

By Arun George

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced a hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at JPY4,300 per share, a 37.2% premium to the last close.
  • The offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals (Japan, Taiwan) and Board recommendation (can be waived). The offer is scheduled to start on 7 May. 
  • The offer represents an all-time high. The Board has three options: facilitate a friendly offer, find a white knight bidder or launch an ambitious MTM plan to thwart the offer. 

Pentamaster (1665 HK): 28th Feb Vote On Parent’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 19th December 2024, Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, to take out its pseudo dual-listed twin, Pentamaster International (1665 HK).
  • The Offer Price is HK$1.00/share – including a HK$0.07/share dividend – a 45.3% premium to last close. 
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th February, and expected settlement on the 26th March. The IFA says “fair and reasonable”.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC Expands 2nm & Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm “GIGAFAB” in the South — Despite U.S. Tariff Risks
  • Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.
  • Apple Supply Chain Monitor — Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory

Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Rapidus Corporation — The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
  • How Rapidus Compares to TSMC — Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
  • Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC — Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.

AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

By William Keating

  • Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
  • AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
  • H125 is a reset period for AMD’s Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn’t mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.

AMD 4Q24 In-Line, Margins Improving. AI GPU Roadmap for 2025 Is Impressive and Accelerating. Buy.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 4Q24: just inline, flattish AI GPU revenue, recovery in Server and PC. Not impressive but ok. What matters is: accelerating GPU launch in 2025, the open-source software platform gains traction.
  • Please take this literally, from CEO: Data Center AI (revenue will increase) from US$5bn in 2024 to tens of billions of dollars of annual revenue over the coming years.
  • Stock has corrected by -32% since Oct-24. It’s trading at -1 standard deviation on forward EPS or 23x 2025EPS. Time to Buy.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +20.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level vs. Relative Range; Comments from Morris Chang on Premium
  • ASE: +0.5% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
  • ChipMOS: 1.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting Premium at Current Level

Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Light Offer but Lack of Opposition Ahead of the Vote

By Arun George

  • Pentamaster International (1665 HK)’s IFA opines that Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital’s HK$1.00 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 February. 
  • The IFA analysis is biased because it conveniently ignores a relative valuation analysis, which would show that the final offer is unattractive compared to its global peers.
  • Disappointingly, there is little minority opposition to an arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging valuation multiple discrepancies across two exchanges. 

Alphabet 4Q’24 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the 10th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.
  • Cloud revenue growth decelerated from 35.0% YoY in 3Q’24 to 30.1% in 4Q’24.
  • I will note, however, that Google usually discloses every quarter that GCP grew at higher rate than overall Cloud, but in this call, they mentioned “GCP grew at a rate that was much higher than cloud overall”. 

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Feb 06
0

Daily Brief Consumer: VGI PCL, Guming Holdings, SHEIN, WH Group, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company, Daily Journal, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Ferrari N.V. and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: Delta Is Finally Safe; Three Changes Possible
  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • SHEIN: Back in India in Alliance with Reliance, Amid Woes in the West
  • StubWorld: WH Group (288 HK) IPOs Smithfield (SFD US). Now What?
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring Pre-IPO: A Stable Breed
  • Daily Journal Corp (DJCO) – Wednesday, Nov 6, 2024
  • “TSE’s Request” and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings Are Behind the Increase in Share Repurchases
  • Ferrari (RACE US): Strong Finish to FY24 Positions Company Well for a Promising FY25

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: Delta Is Finally Safe; Three Changes Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we see three expected changes. However, since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

SHEIN: Back in India in Alliance with Reliance, Amid Woes in the West

By Devi Subhakesan

  • SHEIN (1895674D HK) returns to India after a five-year hiatus under a license agreement with Reliance Industries (RIL IN) owned Reliance Retail ltd.
  • India’s vast, untapped market for fast fashion, driven by a large and growing young population, rising disposable incomes, and increased e-commerce penetration presents an attractive growth opportunity for Shein.
  • Shein faces growing challenges in the US due to new trade restrictions. Its partnership with Reliance could serve as a strategic move to develop alternative supply chains outside China.

StubWorld: WH Group (288 HK) IPOs Smithfield (SFD US). Now What?

By David Blennerhassett

  • After reducing the IPO price, and the placement size, WH Group (288 HK) has now completed the spin-off of Smithfield Foods (SFD US).
  • Preceding my comments on the WH Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring Pre-IPO: A Stable Breed

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (FHF HK), the largest condiment company in China, is seeking an H-share IPO in Hong Kong. 
  • It has established brand recognition and leadership positions, product innovation and diversification, opportunities from industry consolidation, and steady earnings with net cash.
  • Assuming a 28% HA discount, the same as the HS Stock Connect, this implies an FY25 PER of 23.2x. Versus Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP)‘s 23.8x, this seems not attractive enough. 

Daily Journal Corp (DJCO) – Wednesday, Nov 6, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Lack of transparency and inadequate financial disclosures at Daily Journal Corporation
  • Detailed analysis suggests the stock is severely overvalued
  • Significant downside risk for investors in DJCO

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

“TSE’s Request” and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings Are Behind the Increase in Share Repurchases

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Dividends are still the mainstay of shareholder returns, but shareholder returns, including share buybacks, became a standard “P/B raising measure,” which is why share buybacks increased on a company-by-company basis.
  • Share repurchases increased significantly this year as large cross-holding share dissolutions were undertaken through share repurchases. Share buybacks will continue increasing due to share repurchases for dissolution of cross-shareholdings.
  • Companies that have been reluctant to retire treasury stock are finally moving to do so. This is expected to be a change of the companies.

Ferrari (RACE US): Strong Finish to FY24 Positions Company Well for a Promising FY25

By Sameer Taneja

  • Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) reported Q4 FY24 revenue and earnings growth of 14% and 32%, exceeding analyst profit estimates by 14% due to improved product mix and pricing.
  • Management provided conservative guidance for FY25, projecting baseline revenue and EPS growth of 5% and 2% YoY, consistent with Ferrari’s conservative historical approach to guidance.
  • The stock trades at 47x FY25 PE and 26x EV-EBITDA. With 81% repeat customers and 48% multiple owners, Ferrari is expected to sustain pricing power and grow high-margin revenues.

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Feb 06
0

Most Read: Shibaura Electronics, Barito Renewables Energy, Netmarble , Toc Co Ltd, Fuji Soft Inc, Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals, Tohto Suisan, MS&AD Insurance, Young Poong and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿
  • Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month
  • Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300
  • TOC (8841) Buyback Makes One Wonder When The Takeout Comes
  • Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Bumps Bigly In Bain Boyg; Buyers Bully a Bagarre
  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍
  • Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share
  • Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Feb25), TSE Updates
  • Must Asset Mgmt Goes Activist on Young Poong

Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Taiwanese passive components maker Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced its Board had approved the launching of a Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). 
  • It turns out YAGEO approached them in October, Shibaura stonewalled for 3mos, required an NDA to meet, and refused to budge. METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines were likely ignored.
  • This could set off a flurry of activity including competition, an auction, promises of dividends, and who knows what. It will be exciting but it’s not C&F.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

By Brian Freitas

  • Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
  • With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
  • The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.

Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
  • With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.
  • With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo’s (2327 TT) Hostile Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,300

By Arun George

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced a hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at JPY4,300 per share, a 37.2% premium to the last close.
  • The offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals (Japan, Taiwan) and Board recommendation (can be waived). The offer is scheduled to start on 7 May. 
  • The offer represents an all-time high. The Board has three options: facilitate a friendly offer, find a white knight bidder or launch an ambitious MTM plan to thwart the offer. 

TOC (8841) Buyback Makes One Wonder When The Takeout Comes

By Travis Lundy

  • 7 years ago I wrote a big piece titled TOC’s BIGLY Buyback Makes It a Takeout Target. I thought the shareholder structure and buyback plans looked like a creeping takeover. 
  • In December 2017, Effissimo had sold a very large stake back to the company. I wrote in March 2018. 10mos later they did another and I wrote again.
  • Since then they’ve bought back a bit more. Today they are buying back another 5%. It still looks like a potential takeover.

Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Bumps Bigly In Bain Boyg; Buyers Bully a Bagarre

By Travis Lundy

  • In Dec 2024, Bain announced it would overbid KKR’s bid without requiring Fuji Soft’s approval, backed by the founding family. In early Jan 2025, we got an anticipated start date.
  • That anticipated start date is upon us. KKR’s deal to close 7 Feb is now bumped to ¥9,800 and extended 7 days, suggesting Bain’s bid beacons.
  • I think they’ll have to go to ¥10,000 and from here there may not be much upside. I’d rather stay away.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index. There are a few migrations between the indices.
  • We estimate turnover of 3.8% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated net round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.8bn).
  • The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have underperformed the forecast deletes. For the STAR100 Index outright changes, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a lot.

Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share

By Travis Lundy

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Feb25), TSE Updates

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 171 new CGRs were filed since 31-Dec-2024. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
  • A surprising number of smaller companies have yet to file a MCoCC/SP Awareness report. As cross-holdings get sold down, I expect they will become activists targets in 2025.

Must Asset Mgmt Goes Activist on Young Poong

By Douglas Kim

  • Must Asset Management, a 3% shareholder of Young Poong (000670 KS), started to go activist on the company on 5 February.
  • Based on current market cap, this would represent a P/B of 0.2x using the consolidated controlling interest equity of 3.9 trillion won!
  • There is some speculation that Must Asset Mgmt may form an alliance with Chairman Choi’s family as it proposed to Young Poong to recommend outside directors.

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Feb 06
0

Daily Brief Financials: MS&AD Insurance, Insignia Financial, Gold, Banco Santander Sa, SK Finance Limited, Suntec REIT, Greentown China, Dream Incubator, Ricoh Leasing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Feb25), TSE Updates
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Three’s A Crowd As Brookfield Joins Bain And CC Capital
  • EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month
  • €10bn Share Buyback
  • SK Finance Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong AUM Growth Driven by Vehicle Financing
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (05-Feb-2025): CapitaLand buys Osaka site for $700M data centre.
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Dream Incubator (4310 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Ricoh Leasing (8566 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Feb25), TSE Updates

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 171 new CGRs were filed since 31-Dec-2024. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
  • A surprising number of smaller companies have yet to file a MCoCC/SP Awareness report. As cross-holdings get sold down, I expect they will become activists targets in 2025.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Three’s A Crowd As Brookfield Joins Bain And CC Capital

By David Blennerhassett

  • One exceptionally crowded data room as PE outfit Brookfield Capital joins Bain Capital and CC Capital with a matching A$4.60/share NBIO, via a Scheme, for Insignia Financial (IFL AU).
  • Brookfield’s Offer may include a scrip alternative in an unlisted bid vehicle, subject to caps.  As with Bain and CC Capital’s Offers, Brookfield’s Offer would ultimately require FIRB signing off.
  • And similar to Bain and CC Capital, Brookfield has been afforded a limited period of access to certain non-public information on a non-exclusive basis.

EQD | February Macro Vol Roadmap – Stay Alert to Trend Change in 2nd Half of Month

By John Ley

  • All markets surveyed here tend to see price weakness along with increased volatility in the second half of February. 
  • SP500 was the only market for which realized vol in January was greater than implied at the end of December.
  • Gold, SP500 and SPASX200 have all gone over 450 days without a 10% correction. Nifty moving in opposite direction, 127 days without a 10% rally.

€10bn Share Buyback

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Strong 2024 Financial Performance: Santander reported a record €12.57 billion net profit, exceeding expectations, with 8% revenue growth (€62.2B) and 12% net income growth (€36.18B), boosting RoTE to 16.3%.
  • The buyback 13.3% of market cap, could raise EPS, improve valuation, and support share price, as it represents 15% of ADTV over two years (or 80 days worth of ADTV).
  • Santander maintains strong capital and profitability, with a CET1 ratio of 12.8%, RoTE of 16.3%, and an efficiency ratio of 41.8%, reinforcing sustained long-term value creation.

SK Finance Ltd Pre-IPO – Strong AUM Growth Driven by Vehicle Financing

By Rosita Fernandes

  • SK Finance Limited (0893736D IN)  is planning to raise about US$260m through its upcoming India IPO.
  • SK Finance Ltd (SFL) is a non-deposit non-banking finance company middle layer (NBFC ML) operating in two main verticals, vehicle financing and financing for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
  • As per CRISIL Report, the company was the fastest growing player in the vehicle and MSME financing segment among its peers, based on AUM growth over FY21-23.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (05-Feb-2025): CapitaLand buys Osaka site for $700M data centre.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • CapitaLand Investment secures Osaka site for $700M data centre project, expanding presence in Asia’s growing tech market.
  • Singapore’s Temasek boosts investment in CenterSquare’s commercial real estate debt fund with $200M injection for growth.
  • Gordon Tang faces setback as Suntec REIT buyout likely to fail with extended deadline, raising uncertainty in real estate market.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Health and Happiness (H&H)
  • In the US, the December JOLTS job openings unexpectedly declined to 7.6 mn (8.0 mn e / 8.2 mn revised p). The JOLTS lay-off and quits rates were stable at 1.1% and 2.0%, respectively, in December.
  • Treasuries rallied yesterday, with yields declining 4-5 bps across the curve, on account of the weaker-than-expected JOLTS report.

Dream Incubator (4310 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q3 FY03/25, consolidated sales were JPY4.5bn (+19.8% YoY), with operating profit of JPY173mn and net income of JPY97mn.
  • Business Production segment sales reached JPY3.8bn (+10.3% YoY), with operating profit of JPY568mn (+15.2% YoY).
  • Venture Capital segment sales were JPY726mn (+117.4% YoY), with operating profit of JPY405mn, reversing prior losses.

Ricoh Leasing (8566 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue decreased by 2.1% YoY, while net income attributable to owners rose 50.0% YoY due to extraordinary gains.
  • Contract execution volume increased significantly in real estate and capital investment domains, contributing to overall growth.
  • SG&A expenses rose 8.6% YoY, driven by human resource investments; capital cost increased 89.0% YoY due to interest rates.

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Feb 06
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals, PegBio, Nanjing Leads Biolabs, Evaxion Biotech A/S, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt, Cloudbreak Pharma, Sana Biotechnology Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍
  • PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A (Supposedly) Straightforward GLP-1 Challenger Story
  • Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs – The Future Prospects of the Pipeline Are Worth Looking Forward To
  • EVAX: Bolsters Balance Sheet
  • Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Cloudbreak 拨康视云 IPO: Negative Readthrough from Underperforming Market Leader
  • Sana Biotechnology (SANA) Core Investment Case 05022025

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index. There are a few migrations between the indices.
  • We estimate turnover of 3.8% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated net round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.8bn).
  • The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have underperformed the forecast deletes. For the STAR100 Index outright changes, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a lot.

PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A (Supposedly) Straightforward GLP-1 Challenger Story

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio is looking to raise at least USD 100m via its Hong Kong IPO.
  • In this note, we looked at the company’s fundamentals, particularly its core product PB-117.
  • We think the story might look simple as a straightforward GLP-1 challenger but there are quite a number of concerns as we dig into the company’s story.

Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs – The Future Prospects of the Pipeline Are Worth Looking Forward To

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • After PD-1/L1, we haven’t seen the next successful/reliable immune checkpoint emerges due to issues on efficacy/safety profile. So, for 4-1BB/LAG3, we’re worried about the druggability or future commercialization after approval.
  • In Leads Biolabs’ pipeline, we think the future highlight may still lie in CD3, since the mechanism by which TCR/CD3 is used to activate T cells is well validated.
  • After Series C+ Financing, the post investment valuation has exceeded RMB3 billion.If the pipeline development progresses smoothly, Leads Biolabs’ valuation would surpass peers in the future due to better outlook.

EVAX: Bolsters Balance Sheet

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • EVAX is a clinical stage company that has proprietary AI models designed to more efficiently and more accurately target much-needed treatments.
  • The company has two streams of possible revenue: from the treatments themselves and from the licensing of the AI technology.
  • The company announced that it has close a public offering of almost four million American Depository Shares, resulting in an additional of over $10 million in cash to its balance sheet.

Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Cumulative Q3 revenue increased by 2.8% YoY to JPY75.1bn, while operating profit decreased by 15.2% YoY.
  • Domestic revenue rose 3.0% YoY, driven by a 7.9% YoY increase in the nursing care business.
  • SG&A expenses rose 9.2% YoY, impacting profit margins; net income attributable to owners declined by 10.7% YoY.

Cloudbreak 拨康视云 IPO: Negative Readthrough from Underperforming Market Leader

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Cloudbreak re-filed for a Hong Kong listing in December 2024 to raise at least USD 100 million.
  • In this note, we look at updates to its product lines. The progress of core products is on track while there are significant delays observed for other products.
  • We have a negative readthrough from the leading competitor of its core product.

Sana Biotechnology (SANA) Core Investment Case 05022025

By ACF Equity Research

  • Sana Biotechnology (NasdaqGS:SANA) is a well-funded cell and gene therapy innovator.
  • Its therapies address significant unmet needs across oncology, central nervous system (CNS) disorders, and rare genetic diseases.
  • Leveraging IP protected platform technologies, SANA is developing a robust pipeline of allogeneic cell therapies, in vivo gene editing and hypoimmune solutions, that might revolutionize treatment paradigms.

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Feb 05
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: The Long-Overdue NIFTY Index Rally: Let’s Talk About PROFIT TARGETS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • The Long-Overdue NIFTY Index Rally: Let’s Talk About PROFIT TARGETS
  • EQD Intraday | Tariff Tantrum Impact on Intraday Volatility
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows
  • S&P/ASX 200 Flashes a Strong Tactical BUY Signal
  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 31st): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Skc

The Long-Overdue NIFTY Index Rally: Let’s Talk About PROFIT TARGETS

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) has been pullingback for 5 consecutive months. However the index may be at a juncture where it could start to rally and rise again.
  • This insight discusses the short-term (WEEKLY, for the next few weeks) tactical profit targets for the NIFTY.
  • According to our NIFTY WEEKLY model, the index has a good chance to reverse and go higher, as long as Trump suddenly does not put some tariffs also on India!

EQD Intraday | Tariff Tantrum Impact on Intraday Volatility

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • This Insight presents intraday data to illustrate regional volatility moves over the past one and a half trading days. 
  • Sunday’s US tariff announcement led to a global decline in equities and a spike in volatility on Monday. Asian indices began to recover today with a slight decrease in volatility.
  • Market reaction to Sunday’s announcement was short-lived, so far, and the impact on implied volatility muted. The risk of a renewed volatility spike to or above Monday’s intraday high’s remains.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (January): $18.1bn Inflows

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
  • We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
  • We highlight inflows into Tencent, SMIC, ICBC, China Mobile, Xiaomi and outflows from Meituan.

S&P/ASX 200 Flashes a Strong Tactical BUY Signal

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week closed up, reached an 8566.90 all time high peak on Jan 31st, then began a sharp pullback this Monday.
  • The pullback has just begun, but has already reached the WEEKLY OVERSOLD area (50% probability of reversal) according to out PRICE model
  • If the pullback continues this week or the next, we see it as a strong BUY opportunity, the index’s uptrend can continue after the pullback.

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 31st): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Skc

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jan 31st which has an aggregated short interest worth USD3.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Skc.

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