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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Tsuruha Holdings, JD.com Inc (ADR), Smithfield Foods, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Noodles & Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table
  • [JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: C4Q24 Preview: Still the Safe Choice into 2025
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD): IPO Provides a Compelling Discount to Industry Peers
  • Goodyear Tire To Divest Dunlop In Favor Of Sumitomo Rubber
  • ETF Sale Won’t Be Concluded Soon, but as Long as BOJ Keeps Holding Them, the Problems Will Persist
  • NOODLES & CO (NDLS) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table

By Travis Lundy

  • In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
  • That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
  • What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: C4Q24 Preview: Still the Safe Choice into 2025

By Ying Pan

  • We expect JD.com C4Q24 revenue/non-GAAP NI to be RMB337bn/9.7bn, 1.6%/6.5% above consensus, benefiting from trade-in subsidies and logistics;
  • With 2025 having four quarters of trade-in subsidy vs. 2024’s one quarter and smartphone’s participation, JD.com is on solid growth footing in our universe. 
  • We raised JD.com’s TP from US$50 to US$ 52 TP and maintain BUY rating.

Smithfield Foods (SFD): IPO Provides a Compelling Discount to Industry Peers

By IPO Boutique

  • The company is seeking a market cap of $9.1b-$10.7b based on the $23-$27 range. 
  • A high end pricing for Smithfield values the company at roughly 13.5x this year’s earnings, a sizable discount to comps Hormel Foods (about 21x) and Tyson Foods (26x).
  • It is our opinion that the business model is well-rounded, resilient and stable with multiple-organic growth levers.

Goodyear Tire To Divest Dunlop In Favor Of Sumitomo Rubber

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Transaction valued at around US$701 million in cash proceeds
  • Goodyear to hold ground in Europe until the end of 2025
  • Goodyear joins Dutch research body TNO for crash mitigation

ETF Sale Won’t Be Concluded Soon, but as Long as BOJ Keeps Holding Them, the Problems Will Persist

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since dividend income and unrealized gains on ETFs have significant impact on BOJ’s finances, the sales of ETF will be discussed, considering BOJ’s overall balance sheet and income/expenses as well.
  • There’re unexamined issues, whether the central bank’s purchase of stocks was really good thing, whether it distorted the secondary market, and whether management reforms were delayed by underpinning the stocks.
  • BOJ can move on to the issue of ETF disposition when the impact of policy rate hikes is recognized and the market stabilizes, but until then the problems will persist.

NOODLES & CO (NDLS) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Noodles & Co is currently undervalued, presenting an opportunity for turnaround
  • Despite past challenges, the restaurant chain is statistically cheap and attracting activist investors
  • With potential catalysts and a focus on value, Noodles & Co may be poised for success in the current economic landscape

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 17th): Xero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 17th): Xero, Wisetech Global, Aristocrat Leisure, Macquarie

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 17th): Xero, Wisetech Global, Aristocrat Leisure, Macquarie

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 17th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Xero, Wisetech Global, Aristocrat Leisure, Macquarie.

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief ECM: Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case
  • TXR Robotics IPO Preview
  • Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare Pre-IPO – Strong Revenue Growth Led by Expanding Network of Facilities
  • Sichuan Biokin (百利天恒) H-Listing: Impressive Clinical Results so Far
  • Continuum Green Energy Pre-IPO: ESG Friendly but Burning Prodigious Amounts of Cash

Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports.
  • In Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on under-pressure store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, margin pressure due to competition and a sizeable pre-IPO dividend.

TXR Robotics IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • TXR Robotics is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in March 2025. TXR Robotics is a robot and logistics automation company in Korea.
  • The company plans to offer 3.075 million shares in the IPO. The IPO price range is from 11,500 won to 13,500 won.
  • The bankers used PSR method to value TXR Robotics. The bankers used five companies including Yuil Robotics, Robotis, Neuromeka Co, Kornic Automation, and Hyundai Movex as comps.

Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare Pre-IPO – Strong Revenue Growth Led by Expanding Network of Facilities

By Akshat Shah

  • Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) is looking to raise about US$480m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Sichuan Biokin (百利天恒) H-Listing: Impressive Clinical Results so Far

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Sichuan Biokin is looking at a A-H listing and is looking to raise up to USD 500 million. 
  • In this note we look at the company’s fundamentals briefly including its heavyweight product BL-B01D1. We also examine its deal with BMS.
  • The stock has performed well on Shanghai STAR board since its A share listing. 

Continuum Green Energy Pre-IPO: ESG Friendly but Burning Prodigious Amounts of Cash

By Nicholas Tan

  • Continuum Green Energy Ltd (1580973D IN)  is looking to raise about US$430m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Continuum Green Energy (CGE) is an independent power producer (IPP) with over 14 years of experience in identifying, developing, constructing and operating renewable energy projects in India.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief ESG: Hopefully and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Hopefully, CSDDD Mandates Will Advance Human Rights Efforts, the Weakest Area for Japanese Companies

Hopefully, CSDDD Mandates Will Advance Human Rights Efforts, the Weakest Area for Japanese Companies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies have established policies on human capital but haven’t yet implemented specific measures. Solving issues related to human capital is an area in which Japanese companies lag far behind.
  • With even the understanding of diversity within the company in jeopardy, it is unlikely to reach a solution to human rights in the supply chain.
  • Japanese companies have traditionally been active in investing in goods, but have been reluctant to invest in people. Many companies need to start with an understanding of people.

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
  • Most recent/highest conviction “buy-the-dip” call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
  • Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Trump Commands Interest Rates to Drop and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Trump Commands Interest Rates to Drop
  • Singapore Market Roundup (23-Jan-2025): Food Empire plans to diversify. Hold stock.
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025
  • ICR Conference Recap – Tariffs Are Biggest Uncertainly Heading into 2025

Ohayo Japan | Trump Commands Interest Rates to Drop

By Mark Chadwick

  • Markets were boosted by President Trump’s comments on potential interest rate cuts and oil price reductions.
  • The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps to 0.5% on Friday – levels not seen since 2008
  • Nidec’s Q3 operating profit rose 5% to 54.5 billion yen, driven by strong demand for data centre power generators. However, it missed analyst expectations. 

Singapore Market Roundup (23-Jan-2025): Food Empire plans to diversify. Hold stock.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Food Empire stock should be retained as the company plans to diversify its business, potentially leading to increased profitability.
  • HSBC has raised Singtel’s target price in anticipation of a potential merger in the telecom industry, suggesting room for growth.
  • Investors should consider holding onto Food Empire stock and possibly increasing investment in Singtel due to positive outlooks for both companies.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources

ICR Conference Recap – Tariffs Are Biggest Uncertainly Heading into 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • The ICR Conference has become an important event for investors in small- and mid-cap consumer names.
  • This year’s conference drew more than 2,600 attendees, including nearly 500 buyside investors and 225 public and private companies.
  • Some common themes included: The more global names are concerned about the strength in the dollar adversely affecting dollar-reported results.

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
  • [Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD
  • Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements
  • Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade
  • StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill
  • Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote
  • Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

By Brian Freitas

  • Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
  • There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
  • This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
  • Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025. 

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD

By David Blennerhassett

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th January, Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)‘s Offer was extended to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.
  • The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to lower the acceptance threshold to 85% from 90%. 
  • Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly. 

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • We expect up to six ADDs and seven DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill

By David Blennerhassett

  • A double dose of stubs this week! T’Way Air (091810 KS)‘s second-largest shareholder is seeking to spill the board. T’way Air and T’Way Holdings (004870 KS) are up big time.
  • Preceding my comments on the T’way Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote

By Arun George

  • The Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) offer is conditional on the approval of the GNH/GNF shareholders. On 22 January, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) shareholders approved the offer. 
  • The GNF vote requires approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote remains a low risk.   
  • The GNF vote is aided by the higher derating of peers (the median peer’s share price has declined 12.7%) compared to the decline in the implied offer value (10.4%).  

Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Aedas Homes SA (AEDAS SM) stake sale: Castlelake’s stake is worth at least €897 million, with potential buyers Hines and Starwood likely to launch a mandatory public tender offer (OPA).
  • Strategic Appeal: 21,200-home landbank, and market leadership attract international real estate investors, highlighting Spain’s strong housing demand and rising property prices.
  • Possible offers, in line with past transactions, range between 10% discount to NAV to parity with it (which could be defended as “equitable price”. Long.

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness (H&H), Anton Oilfield, Lippo Karawaci
  • In the US, the December Conference Board leading index inched down by 0.1% (-0.1% e / 0.4% revised p) in December to 101.6. The decrease was due to “low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment and a decline in building permits”, according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager for Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board.
  • US President Donald Trump is considering imposing a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese goods as soon as February 1st, apparently due to fentanyl being trafficked into the US via Mexico and Canada, using chemicals from China.

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?
  • Nidec | Pragmatism Shines; Q3 Results
  • Are Paladin investors celebrating too early?
  • Kaspi.kz: The Kazakh Super-App – [Business Breakdowns, EP.203]
  • Chiba Bank – Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through
  • Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Results Reflect Macro Slackness, Not Much Recovery In Sight In Near Term
  • [Earnings Review] SLB Beats Estimates Again Despite Macro Headwinds in Q4
  • Transmedics Group Inc (TMDX) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024
  • Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – January 2025
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Aus revamps student housing vehicle for $3.8B fund

SK Hynix Will Derive ~50% of Revenues from AI in 2025. Why Is the Stock Trading at 6x 2025 EPS?

By Nicolas Baratte

  • SK hynix derived ~25-30% of revenues from AI in 2024 (HBM, LP-DDR, eSSD). AI revenues will double in 2025. SK hynix’s lead, both roadmap, manufacturing, qualifications extends to 2026.
  • AI high growth also allows SK hynix to lower its exposure to commodity PC, Mobile, consumer segments. Hence, margins likely continue to increase in 2025-26.
  • Sk hynix’s lead over Samsung is sustainable for at least 2025-26.  AI-related ASP / margins aren’t cyclical, unlike commodity memory. The stock trades at a miserable 6x 2025 EPS.

Nidec | Pragmatism Shines; Q3 Results

By Mark Chadwick

  • Q3 net sales reached ¥652,153 million, up 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong demand for power generators and battery energy storage systems. Operating profit of ¥54,536 million (-10.1% QoQ) missed expectations.
  • There has been a notable vibe-shift since Kishida took over as CEO – more focus on operational improvements and hopefully margin accretion.
  • Strategic M&A remains a driver and the Makino Milling deal makes sense. At 14x EV / EBIT, the stock should be on the radar of value or GARP investors

Are Paladin investors celebrating too early?

By Money of Mine

  • Evo Group cash flow was around 165 million
  • Paladin had a 12-day shutdown in November, impacting production
  • Water challenges and stockpile grade affecting Paladin’s guidance and operations

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Kaspi.kz: The Kazakh Super-App – [Business Breakdowns, EP.203]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Kaspi is a leading financial technology company in Kazakhstan
  • Offers seamless ecosystem of payments, e-commerce, and financial services
  • CEO and co-founder Mikhail Lamsada transformed Kaspi into a dominant platform

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Chiba Bank – Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Chiba Bank shows good gains in net interest income through 1H25 YoY
  • There should be more of this with rising BOJ rates during 2H25.
  • Flow through to net profit can be strong, given credit metrics.

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Results Reflect Macro Slackness, Not Much Recovery In Sight In Near Term

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hogy Medical (3593 JP) reported flat sales of ¥30B in 9MFY25. Sales of surgical kit products rose 3.2%, to ¥20B, of which Premium Kit sales climbed 7.8%, to ¥13.2B.
  • Higher costs dented operating margin by 40 bps while net profit rose 5% YoY to ¥2.7B due to an extraordinary gain from sale of investment.
  • The company reiterated guidance for FY25 of a rise in sales of 5% to ¥40.9B, with profits also witnessing double digit growth.

[Earnings Review] SLB Beats Estimates Again Despite Macro Headwinds in Q4

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger’s Q4 revenue grew 3.3% YoY and beat estimates by 1.1%, while its net profit fell by 1.6% YoY but its EPS exceeded estimates by 2.5%.
  • In fiscal 2024, SLB’s revenue rose 9.5% YoY, with net profit up 6.1%. Full-year revenue and EPS exceeded estimates by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.
  • SLB reported USD 850 million in 2024 revenue from non-oil and gas operations and expects growth from these segments to outpace core business growth in 2025.

Transmedics Group Inc (TMDX) – Thursday, Oct 24, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • TMDX is a high-growth med-tech company specializing in organ transplant therapy
  • Despite expensive traditional valuation metrics, TMDX offers a compelling investment opportunity
  • Company recently became GAAP profitable and free cash flow positive, indicating a bright future ahead

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – January 2025

By Sameer Taneja

Asia Real Estate Tracker (23-Jan-2025): Aus revamps student housing vehicle for $3.8B fund

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Scape Australia is investing in student housing by launching a $3.8 billion fund to transform the sector.
  • Indian company CtrlS is expanding their data center portfolio by building a fourth facility in Hyderabad.
  • Despite a Q4 slump, Singapore’s real estate investment increased by 35% in 2024, according to Savills.

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief Macro: Introducing: Trumponomics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Introducing: Trumponomics
  • CX Daily: China’s ‘EV Battery Capital’ Turns to Solar
  • GBP Depressed By Fiscal Risk Premium
  • Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jan-25
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 24 Jan 2025

Introducing: Trumponomics

By Odd Lots

  • Donald Trump’s economic policies are changing the way we think about the US economy and shaping the global economy
  • The Trumponomics podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, discusses Trump’s economic agenda and its implications
  • Trump’s policies may be inflationary and there are concerns about what will happen next without any guardrails in place

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

CX Daily: China’s ‘EV Battery Capital’ Turns to Solar

By Caixin Global

  • Solar / In Depth: China’s ‘EV battery capital’ turns to solar In the span of four years
  • Davos /: Beijing’s influence could end Ukraine war, Finnish President says
  • Canal /: Panama starts audit of China-linked port operator amid Trump takeover threat

GBP Depressed By Fiscal Risk Premium

By Phil Rush

  • UK government spending and deficits have attracted unwelcome attention amid falling sterling and bond prices. Yet long-term rate moves match US and short-rate shifts.
  • Sterling weakness defies relative rate moves, suggesting a risk premium worth about 4%. About 1.5pp of that premium is probably US trade policy, with the rest UK-specific.
  • Donald Trump should sustain his threats against the EU but could be softer with the UK. Fiscal risk will likely extend beyond the 26 March Budget amid tough talk, not action.

Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jan-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Norges Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with expectations, and reiterated its guidance for a potential reduction in March as inflation moderates further.
  • Inflation has decelerated faster than anticipated, with headline CPI at 2.2% in December, though core inflation remains above target due to persistent wage growth and high business costs.
  • External factors, including rising policy rate expectations among trading partners and potential trade barriers, alongside domestic economic resilience, will influence the timing and magnitude of future rate adjustments.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 24 Jan 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Economic Insights: China’s GDP met its 5% target, while South Korea’s growth slowed, with declining investment and lowered 2025 forecasts.
  • Global Trends: Discussions highlighted rising multipolarity, a potentially stable Trump presidency, and skepticism around exaggerated fears of Russian expansion post-Ukraine war.
  • Conference Takeaways: Attended a high-level event with industry leaders, focusing on geopolitical shifts, economic strategies, and future global dynamics.

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