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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Murata Manufacturing, Sea , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Delta Electronics Thailand , ASML Holding NV, Shift Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness
  • Murata Mfg (6981) Accelerated Overseas Offer – Minimal Index But Low Vol Vs Peers
  • Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs
  • Murata Manufacturing Placement – Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong
  • TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases
  • Asml Holding Nv (ASML) – Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024
  • Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co


Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

By Brian Freitas

  • A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
  • The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
  • With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.

Murata Mfg (6981) Accelerated Overseas Offer – Minimal Index But Low Vol Vs Peers

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) announced an equity offering worth roughly US$870mm if the stock prices 10% below last. 
  • Unlike “regular” secondary offerings, this is available only to overseas investors, and bookbuilding is very quick. This “increases the size” relative to its headline (no retail uptake).
  • At 11 days of ADV and 3.3% of shares out, it has a certain size, but the stock is well-owned by foreigners, and not terribly volatile vs Peers.

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs

By Sumeet Singh

  • In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs. 
  • This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
  • The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Murata Manufacturing Placement – Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), in another cross-shareholding selldown.
  • The company’s shares haven’t done much over the past few years and recent share price performance as well hasn’t been the best
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead

By William Keating

  • December 2024 revenues of NT$278.16 billion, up 0.8% MoM and up a remarkable 57.8% YoY. It was the second highest monthly revenue in the company’s history.
  • Q424 revenue amounted to NT$868,460. At the company’s forecasted exchange rate for Q4,  NT$32 to the US$, this amounts to $27.14 billion, the company’s highest quarterly revenue ever
  • We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases

By Brian Freitas


Asml Holding Nv (ASML) – Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • ASML’s total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC
  • The company’s share price recently experienced a significant two-day drop
  • Despite past reservations, the author sees potential for a good risk/reward opportunity in buying ASML stock due to better pricing and negative investor sentiment on lithography

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.
  • • Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.
  • Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan
  • TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook & Q125 Look Ahead 
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co 

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand Weakness Amid Block Trade and Convertible Bond News
  • Delta Taiwan Offering Convertible Bonds, Convertible into Delta Thailand Shares
  • Delta Thailand Still Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan — Short Delta Thailand vs. Long Delta Taiwan

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Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Moderna , Enjin, J Frontier Co Ltd, Evaxion Biotech A/S, X4 Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- These Are the Reasons Why LVC May Vote Against the Privatization
  • Moderna In Crisis? A Possible Wake-Up Call That Investors Have Been Dreading!
  • Enjin (7370 JP): 1H FY05/25 flash update
  • J Frontier Co Ltd (2934 JP): Q1 and Q2 FY05/25 flash update
  • EVAX: Share Ratio Adjustment
  • XFOR: Receives €28.5 Upfront for Licensing Agreement with Norgine


Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price

By Arun George

  • Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is heading for a deal break. LVC has not changed its shareholding since amassing a blocking stake.
  • In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price. 
  • Based on four methods, the potential deal break price is HK$17.28, 12% below the last close price of HK$19.58.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- These Are the Reasons Why LVC May Vote Against the Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fosun hopes to privatize Henlius at a low price. As usual, it does not consider the interests of long-term investors, who may express their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization.
  • Lin Lijun clearly has bargaining chips. He may ask Fosun to provide a clear plan for future relisting/asset restructuring, and how the Share Alternative will be linked to this plan.
  • There is a possibility this privatization may fail. Such possibility is not low, because investors will only support the privatization if they can be sure that their interests are protected.

Moderna In Crisis? A Possible Wake-Up Call That Investors Have Been Dreading!

By Baptista Research

  • Moderna, Inc. is undergoing a profound transformation as it navigates a post-pandemic landscape marked by mounting caution among investors.
  • After delivering record-breaking Covid-19 vaccine sales that propelled it into the spotlight during global crisis years, the biotech giant now faces significant headwinds.
  • Recent updates in financial performance and strategic repositioning have underscored a shift in outlook.

Enjin (7370 JP): 1H FY05/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue for FY05/25 was JPY2.7bn, with operating profit at JPY548mn, recurring profit at JPY548mn, and net income at JPY380mn.
  • The company reorganized into three segments: PR Consulting Services, Media Platform Services, and abolished its executive officer system.
  • Revenue progress for FY05/25 was 51.9% of the forecast, with operating profit at 73.8% and recurring profit at 74.6%.

J Frontier Co Ltd (2934 JP): Q1 and Q2 FY05/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 28.5% YoY to JPY5.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 50.0% YoY to JPY18mn.
  • The company transferred AIGATE career Co., Ltd., resulting in an extraordinary gain of JPY5.7mn from the sale.
  • Healthcare Marketing business revenue declined YoY due to a large advertising order impact in Q1 FY05/23.

EVAX: Share Ratio Adjustment

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • EVAX is a clinical stage company that has proprietary AI models designed to more efficiently and more accurately target much-needed treatments.
  • The company has two streams of possible revenue: from the treatments themselves and from the licensing of the AI technology.
  • The company changed the ADS ratio from 1 ADS representing 10 ordinary shares to 1 ADS from 50 ordinary shares.

XFOR: Receives €28.5 Upfront for Licensing Agreement with Norgine

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On January 13, 2025, X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XFOR) announced a licensing agreement with Norgine to commercialize mavorixafor in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • X4 will receive €28.5 upfront and is eligible to receive up to €226 million in potential regulatory and commercial milestone payments along with tiered, double-digit royalties up to the mid-twenties.
  • X4 will manufacture and supply mavorixafor and Norgine will reimburse X4 for CMO costs plus a low teen percentage of the CMO costs.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Hyundai Motor India , LG Electronics India, Tesla , Planet Fitness Inc Cl A, Allied Blenders & Distillers, Garmin Ltd, Wayfair Inc Class A, Health And Happiness (H&H), Vector Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near
  • LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Known and Well Loved
  • Tesla Innovations Unveiled: New Model Y & Robotics Breakthroughs That Will Blow Your Mind!
  • Hyundai Motor India: Anchor Investor Lock-In Period Ends Today
  • Planet Fitness (PLNT) – Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024
  • The Beat Ideas: Allied Blenders & Distillers- Liquor Premiumization Play
  • Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: Q4 2024
  • Wayfair’s Shocking Pivot: Exit Germany and a Cautionary Road Ahead for 2025!
  • Health And Happiness – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And Concurrent Notes Issuance
  • Vector Inc (6058 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update


Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

By Brian Freitas

  • The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
  • The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
  • The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.

LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Known and Well Loved

By Sumeet Singh

  • LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India IPO. 
  • LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Tesla Innovations Unveiled: New Model Y & Robotics Breakthroughs That Will Blow Your Mind!

By Baptista Research

  • Tesla is once again reshaping the automotive and energy landscape with its latest wave of innovations that span from groundbreaking vehicle updates to advances in artificial intelligence and energy solutions.
  • The company’s updated Model Y in China, a redesign aimed at maximizing efficiency, represents just one facet of its dynamic transformation.
  • Recent Q3 2024 earnings discussions revealed record deliveries, improved vehicle safety metrics, and ambitious plans for scaling autonomous driving technologies and energy storage capabilities.

Hyundai Motor India: Anchor Investor Lock-In Period Ends Today

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Lock up expiry today of 21.2 million shares held by Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN)‘s anchor investors. This could improve free float to 17.5% with rest held by the parent.
  • Hyundai India Management is positive about its CY2025 outlook and expects to grow by similar numbers or more in 2025 as it did in 2024. 
  • Creta Electric’s launch is scheduled on Jan 17th; Hyundai hopes to replicate the growth and excitement seen with its original Creta model.

Planet Fitness (PLNT) – Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Planet Fitness plans to open new stores over the next 10 years, with a focus on international markets and exploring new retail formats like off-mall locations
  • The company aims to open 44 new clubs in 3Q24 and 260 clubs in the next 3 years
  • PLNT’s price increase on memberships and aggressive new store development strategy position it for strong comp growth and expansion, capitalizing on the demand for fitness and wellness services.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


The Beat Ideas: Allied Blenders & Distillers- Liquor Premiumization Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) is shifting from mass-market spirits to premium offerings, leveraging IPO funds to reduce debt and boost margins amidst rising alco-beverage demand.
  • This pivot could enhance profitability, thanks to stronger pricing power, higher brand recall, and sustained ROCE above capital costs within India’s highly regulated but fast-growing alcoholic beverage industry.
  • Despite regulatory hurdles and stretched valuations, ABD’s balance sheet cleanup, premiumization strategy, and dominant mass-market presence suggest considerable long-term potential in India’s expanding alcohol sector.

Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: Q4 2024

By Upslope Capital Management

  • Q4 was the most challenging quarter for Upslope since early 2021 (peak of the SPAC/meme stock bubble).
  • Longs underperformed and shorts dragged. Month-to-date performance has been similarly challenging (approximately -4% as of this writing).
  • In addition to a tough market environment, I made mistakes that made things worse.

Wayfair’s Shocking Pivot: Exit Germany and a Cautionary Road Ahead for 2025!

By Baptista Research

  • Wayfair, the prominent online furniture retailer, has recently made headlines with its decision to exit the German market and restructure its global operations by cutting approximately 730 jobs.
  • The move, aimed at reallocating resources towards more promising growth areas such as physical retail and key international markets, marks a significant strategic pivot amid a sluggish home furnishings sector.
  • The German market, which contributed only a low single-digit percentage to the company’s overall revenue, has long posed challenges due to weak macroeconomic conditions and limited brand awareness.

Health And Happiness – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And Concurrent Notes Issuance

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Health and Happiness’ (H&H) proposed tender offer and new notes issuance will extend its debt maturity profile and alleviate debt repayment pressure in FY 2026.
  • In our view, the high tender offer price of 109.8 is to incentivise bondholders to tender and subscribe to the new notes.
  • We see fair value for the proposed notes at c. 8%.

Vector Inc (6058 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue decreased by 2.2% YoY to JPY42.5bn, while operating profit increased by 14.6% YoY to JPY4.0bn.
  • PR and Advertising segment saw a 55.2% YoY increase in operating profit due to high-margin projects and cost reversals.
  • Direct Marketing revenue fell 0.5% YoY, with Vitabrid’s Terminaria First sales growing 21.2% YoY in Q3.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Time to Buy HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time to Buy HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)
  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 10th): Skc, Samsung Electronics


Time to Buy HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

By Nico Rosti

  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has corrected > 13% from its recent peak in mid-December. Our quantitative models indicate a deeply oversold state.
  • The stock has been down for 2 weeks and has reached >75% probability of WEEKLY trend reversal, according to our models.
  • If you are already holding this stock, this could be a good opportunity to buy/accumulate, if you want to hold it long-term. A bounce should come pretty soon.

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 10th): Skc, Samsung Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jan 10th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD3.6bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Skc (011790 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) .

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

By Joe Jasper

  • Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but…
  • …we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
  • Looking for support on the S&P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish

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Daily Brief ESG: The Good News Is that Companies May Change in Less than 17 Years! and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Good News Is that Companies May Change in Less than 17 Years!


The Good News Is that Companies May Change in Less than 17 Years!

By Aki Matsumoto

  • After 17 years of failure to change, Sapporo’s policy change was triggered by the fact that sales in beer business were beginning to recover after the long tunnel of deflation.
  • Regulators, weighed down by the growing number of companies with low profitability and declining competitiveness, want to change the situation, even if it means leveraging the power of activist investors.
  • Many companies bottomed out due to exiting the deflationary economy, and TSE requests prohibit companies from ignoring investors’ proposals, which makes it easier for companies to change.

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Daily Brief ECM: IndiQube Spaces Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • IndiQube Spaces Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine – High Valuation Cannot Be Justified


IndiQube Spaces Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • IndiQube Spaces Ltd (1628202D IN) (ISL) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are ICICI and JM fin.
  • IndiQube Spaces Limited (ISL) is a managed workplace solutions provider offering technological workplace solutions.
  • According to CBRE Report, ISL is among the leading operators in Bengaluru as of Jun 24. 

Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine – High Valuation Cannot Be Justified

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Hengrui plans to IPO in Hong Kong, but it hasn’t yet completed the business transformation from generic drugs to innovative drugs, and is still facing the negative impact of VBP.
  • The key point is whether the innovative drug business has sustained high enough growth rate to offset the decline in generic drug business so as to support the high valuation.
  • Hengrui is overvalued in A-Share. We think Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene (6160 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) in Hong Kong stock market.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Flat on Light PPI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Flat on Light PPI
  • Harmonic Drive (6324) – Beneficiary of Physical AI
  • US Banks – Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects
  • Lawson: New Ideas for Growth
  • Singapore Market Roundup (14-Jan-2025): CGSI raises Pan-United TP to 75 cents for industry outlook.
  • Japan Morning Connection: Lukewarm Tech Rebound in the US Enough to Pause JP SPE Meltdown?
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Climate Change; Lower Household Formation Rates, Globally
  • Biopharma Week in Review – January 13, 2025


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Flat on Light PPI

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks closed mixed Tuesday as investors assessed December’s Producer Price Index, which rose 3.3% annually – below expectations.
  • Nintendo is reportedly poised to unveil its Nintendo Switch 2 console on January 16, with game announcements to follow
  • ITOCHU Corporation plans to expand its North American building materials business through strategic mergers and acquisitions

Harmonic Drive (6324) – Beneficiary of Physical AI

By Russell Burns

  • Physical AI is poised to be the next big thing in AI, with a “ChatGPT moment” just around the corner, according to Nvidia’s founder and CEO.
  • And the rise of so-called embodied AI means two things: self-driving cars and humanoid robots.
  • Harmonic Drive System is the world’s leading manufacturer of high-end harmonic drives – essential equipment for high-spec humanoid robots.

US Banks – Los Angeles Fires Can Drive Loan Restructurings, Impairments, 2nd Order Effects

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The LA fires are not yet contained, especially in Pacific Palisades, and mortgage loan valuations are at risk
  • Loan restructurings can reduce yields long term, while there should also be immediate impairments
  • Many possible negative second order impacts, loan rationing, higher risk-based pricing on marginal loans, increased costs for new loans, and lower collateral values, overall

Lawson: New Ideas for Growth

By Michael Causton

  • Lawson is the third largest convenience store chain nowadays, but a recent poll revealed it to be the second most popular – and it is gaining on leader Seven Eleven. 
  • The company has released a slew of new developments in the past couple of months, some of which point to the future of retailing here.
  • They also show the potential for Seven Eleven Japan but only if it follows the same path.

Singapore Market Roundup (14-Jan-2025): CGSI raises Pan-United TP to 75 cents for industry outlook.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • CGSI raises Pan-United TP to 75 cents due to positive industry outlook, potential for growth in the market.
  • UOBKH reduces target price on ConfortDelGro due to rising platform fees and competition, causing concerns for future profitability.
  • UOBKH highlights US office S-REITs offering attractive valuations and predicts increased revenue and patmi for SGX in 1HFY2025, while RHB reaffirms ‘buy’ rating for Marco Polo Marine. Morningstar increases target prices for Singapore banks, suggesting a bullish outlook for the sector.

Japan Morning Connection: Lukewarm Tech Rebound in the US Enough to Pause JP SPE Meltdown?

By Andrew Jackson

  • SPE in Japan was aggressively sold yesterday but moves look excessive
  • US Homebuilder’s gain after KB Homes beat priced in… upside for JP names should continue
  • Rohm’s outlook remains cloudy as SiC prices likely to slide further as new Chinese supply hits the market.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Climate Change; Lower Household Formation Rates, Globally

By Water Tower Research

  • Stocks were down as the Financial Conditions Index (FCI) tightened, indicating tougher financing conditions for both firms and individuals, on elevated inflation concerns and anticipation of a more hawkish Fed.
  • The Water Tower Research Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 5.0% and the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index fell 2.5%, while the Home Goods Retailers Index improved 0.3%.
  • The large- cap indexes fell 1.9%, while the R2K fell 3.4%.

Biopharma Week in Review – January 13, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Preannouncements were abundant as we approached this week’s major healthcare conference in SF.
  • As investors prepped for company updates and significant news flow, signs of M&A activity were trickling in, with BIIB bidding for SAGE, LLY looking at Scorpion, and JNJ talking with ITCI.
  • Last week, Medicare confirmed coverage for LLY’s obesity drug, SANA had a successful hypoimmune transplant for T1D, and VIR’s dual- masked TCE kept up with JANX. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Seazen Group, Vedanta Resources
  • In the US, the UST curve bear steepened slightly, amid a rise in oil price and a heavy pipeline of corporate bond issuances. The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 4.38%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.78%. Equities were mixed.
  • The S&P 500 rebounded 0.2% from last Friday’s selloff to close at 5,836. That said, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% to 19,088, driven by a decline in large tech stocks.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap
  • Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Sits On A Blocking Stake. And Me (Maybe) Eating Humble Pie
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break
  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel
  • KRX H1 SSF Reshuffle: Play Setup from Last Round’s Learning Curve
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • Samsung Electronics’ Key Inflection Point: Lee Jae-Yong’s Final Appeal Ruling on February 3
  • JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee’s Superior Proposal
  • Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline


Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap

By Travis Lundy

  • Bain is buying out JAMCO (a long time ago called Itochu Aircraft Maintenance) from Itochu, ANA, Bain’s own portfolio company, and the public. It’s an expected deal. A done deal.
  • It is being done too cheaply. The price is 6x next year’s expected EBIT. This year expected ROE is 22%. Next year could be double that.
  • And the company has more in non-operating financial assets than its net equity. And a lot of really old land assets are not marked up. Just a shame.

Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Sits On A Blocking Stake. And Me (Maybe) Eating Humble Pie

By David Blennerhassett

  • I was wrong. Loyal Valley Capital (LVC) have stopped buying Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK) – or have not bought since reaching a blocking stake of 7.8295% on the 9th January. 
  • LVC could either use that stake as leverage to negotiate with the Offeror on the scrip terms. Or blow up the deal and pick up shares after the deal breaks 
  • OR perhaps, as per my initial impression,  LVC tenders. And they may still do that. It should be this straightforward; but the fact that it is not raises questions. 

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

By Arun George

  • The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
  • I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
  • Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
  • The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).

KRX H1 SSF Reshuffle: Play Setup from Last Round’s Learning Curve

By Sanghyun Park

  • Last time, price action showed up a week early, suggesting market makers are getting ahead, likely due to learning effects.
  • This round’s a letdown—no KOSDAQ names and fewer plays. Still, lower-volume KOSPI names showed solid price action correlation in the last reshuffle.
  • This round, focus on low-volume KOSPI names, enter 5 days before the listing, and exit just before it drops, using the learning curve from the last reshuffle.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas


Samsung Electronics’ Key Inflection Point: Lee Jae-Yong’s Final Appeal Ruling on February 3

By Sanghyun Park

  • Some speculate Samsung might delay the value-up announcement until after the February 3 ruling, using it strategically to influence the verdict and align with the appeal’s outcome.
  • Market chatter even surrounds Samsung’s HBM test delays with NVIDIA, with some linking it to Lee Jae-yong’s February 3 appeal ruling—though it seems more like speculative conspiracy.
  • If Lee Jae-yong wins his appeal on February 3, it could trigger key events like value-up disclosure and HBM pass, significantly impacting Samsung’s short-term price action and positions.

JAMCO (7408 JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Jamco Corp (7408 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Bain Capital at JPY1,800 per share, a 27.8% premium to the last close.
  • The offer, which is preconditional on regulatory approvals and will open in mid-February, is attractive compared to historical trading ranges.
  • On the other hand, the offer is light as it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, the modest required acceptance rate suggests a done deal. 

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee’s Superior Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28th November, AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU), a reputable home builder in Australia/New Zealand, entered into a deed granting the AVID consortium exclusive confirmatory due diligence.
  • The AVID consortium, comprising Proprium Capital Partners and AVID Property Group, pitched an NBIO (by way of a Scheme) of A$0.67/share. Singapore’s SC Global (54.5% shareholder) was supportive.
  • In what appeared to be clean deal, Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) then acquired a 5.39% stake on the 23rd December. Now they’ve made their own NBIO at A$0.70/share

Ahead of Macquarie’s PUSU Deadline

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Macquarie’s final offer of 870 pence per share represents a 57% premium over Renewi’s November 27, 2024, closing price, valuing the company at approximately €1.06 billion.
  • Macquarie secured irrevocable undertakings from major shareholders holding 15.1% of shares and aims to finalize the offer by January 23, 2025, pending due diligence.
  • The offer aligns closely with Renewi’s intrinsic value, offering investors an attractive exit opportunity with a market-implied deal probability of 78.5%. Via Scheme, completion by end of March/early April.

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