Consumer

• Genting (GENT MK)‘s Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) is further evidence of the gaming group’s move for even greater U.S. exposure. 
• Preceding my comments on GENT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Murakami has amassed an 18.85% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,157.78 per share is 10.1% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
• Murakami’s ongoing stake building likely suggests that any potential discussions with CVC and the founding family to reinvest into BidCo have hit an impasse.  
• CVC/Founding family can buy time by extending the 10 November close and disclosing additional irrevocables. Nevertheless, an offer bump remains more likely than not. 

• Seres Group (601127 CH), a Chinese NEV manufacturer, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
• Seres Group (SG) is principally engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and services of new energy vehicles (NEV) as well as core NEV components.
• In our previous note we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and likely A/H premium.

• Marks and Spencer has reported strong financial performance for the past year, with sales growing by 6.1% to £13.9 billion and a significant 22% increase in profit before tax and adjusting items, reaching £875.5 million.
• The company also improved its free cash flow, ending the year with net funds of over £400 million, which is a demonstration of robust financial health.
• These improvements position Marks and Spencer in its strongest financial state in nearly three decades.

• The NIFTY Index has been stuck in the 25k price zone since May 2025. The index is going nowhere.
• Our quantitative model indicates a 62.5% probability of reversal next week, if the index closes around 25300 (if the close is positive).
• If the index closes this week down, a pullback may be under way, entry zones details are discussed in detail in the insight.

• LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton has demonstrated considerable resilience during the first half of 2025, despite navigating complex macroeconomic conditions and currency volatility.
• The company reported EUR 40 billion in revenue, representing a 3% organic decline, and profit from recurring operations at EUR 9 billion, down 15% from the previous year.
• The operating margin of 22.6% suggests solid management efficiency amidst declining revenues.

• TOP TOY International Group (TOYTOY HK) is seeking an IPO in Hong Kong. In the latest Series A financing, it is valued at US$1.3bn post-money.
• It has solid market growth potential, IP and product development strengths, an extensive distribution network, and good leverage on its parent MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK). 
• We initially assess a fair FY26F PER of 20-22x, equating to a slight premium to Bloks Group (325 HK) but a discount to Pop Mart (9992 HK). 

• Total operating revenue decreased by 3.9% YoY to JPY487.2bn, with operating profit declining 17.8% YoY to JPY26.7bn.
• Domestic department store sales fell due to a sharp drop in inbound demand, despite solid domestic customer sales.
• Takashimaya Financial Partners Co., Ltd. saw a 12.0% YoY increase in operating revenue, driven by growth in transaction volume.

• The recent financial results of NEXT plc present a mixed picture, reflecting both the resilience and the challenges the company faces in the retail and online fashion sectors.
• Overall, the company has shown commendable performance across its geographical markets, with particularly strong results in its international business.
• However, there are notable concerns and cautious outlooks that investors should consider.

• Pearson plc presented its interim results for 2025, underscoring both strategic advancements and areas impacted by external factors.
• The company’s strategy remains consistent, focusing on leveraging two significant trends: demographics and artificial intelligence.
• These trends are shaping Pearson’s trajectory, emphasizing the company’s role in future-proofing learning via skill development in the AI era.

• Chagee Holdings (CHA US) raised US$411m from its US IPO in April 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon. 
• Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• TOP TOY International Group Limited, a world-class pop toy brand company from China, filed to go public in Hong Kong.
• Founded in 2020, the brand has quickly positioned itself as a domestic rival to China’s Pop Mart, capitalizing on the country’s booming “blind box” and designer toy craze.
• TOP TOY has shown strong growth and execution, going from RMB641m in sales of pop toy products in 2022 to RMB2,554m expected this year.

• Chando Global Limited (CHANDO HK) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Huatai International and UBS.
• Chando Global is a multi brand cosmetics company in China. It was China’s third-largest domestic cosmetics group, by retail sales in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
• Its flagship brand, CHANDO, had consistently ranked among the top two domestic cosmetics brands for 12 consecutive years from 2013 to 2024 by retail sales.

• Water Oasis operates a resilient, dual-engine business model combining beauty services and product retail, primarily in Hong Kong. This diversification provides multiple revenue streams and cross-selling opportunities.
• The company exhibits a strong financial position with a debt-free balance sheet and significant cash reserves, supporting a high dividend yield. However, recent net income and dividend payouts have shown volatility.
• Future growth hinges on the recovery of consumer spending in Hong Kong and successful expansion into Greater China. The company’s strategy of targeting various consumer segments and expanding its brand portfolio positions it to capture market shifts, though it faces intense competition.

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• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Genting Berhad, China Vanke
• The US treasury market was closed yesterday for Columbus Day. Equities rebounded from Friday’s decline, after the US and China signalled willingness to continue trade talks. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% to 6,655, while the Nasdaq was up 2.2% at 22,695.
• China’s September exports accelerated 8.3% y-o-y (6.6% e / 4.4% p) to USD 329 bn, the highest monthly total YTD.

• Lennar Corporation plans to divest its remaining 20% stake in Millrose Properties to shareholders with a 6.38% premium.
• Falcon Oil & Gas agreed to sell assets to TBN, distributing TBN shares to shareholders at a 0.00687x ratio.
• Dickson Concepts trades at a 40% discount to net cash, with potential privatization efforts by founder Dickson Poon.

• Stellar Growth Driven by Miu Miu: The Prada Group is demonstrating exceptional performance in a challenging luxury market, largely propelled by the phenomenal growth of its Miu Miu brand, which has seen sales surges of over 60% and has been ranked as the ‘hottest’ brand in fashion.
• Strategic Focus on Direct-to-Consumer and Brand Desirability: The company’s strategy emphasizes long-term brand equity through a robust direct-to-consumer model, significant investments in retail network enhancement, and a disciplined focus on creativity and craftsmanship to maintain high desirability for both Prada and Miu Miu.
• Resilient Financials and Shareholder Returns: Prada has achieved a strong track record of double-digit revenue growth, expanding margins, and a solid net financial position, allowing for consistent dividend distributions and strategic investments in its supply chain and retail footprint.

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• Sales reached JPY46.6bn (+6.2% YoY), with operating profit at JPY3.6bn (+26.5% YoY) and EBITDA at JPY8.9bn (+10.1% YoY).
• Domestic business sales were JPY37.8bn (+8.6% YoY), driven by a 6.7% YoY increase in comparable store sales.
• China business sales declined to JPY1.7bn (-40.5% YoY), with operating loss narrowing due to structural reforms and facility closures.

• After 5.5-months, SPX broke below its 20-dayMA in decisive fashion on Friday.6569 has been our level that needs to break in order for us to believe a pullback has begun
• SPX made a low of 6551 on Friday (less than 20 points or 0.3% from our 6569 level), meaning it was NOT a decisive breakdown (in time or price).
• As a result, our near-term bullish outlook since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact, and it will stay that way as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569.

• TopBuild Corp., a leading installer and distributor of insulation and building products, has been aggressively reshaping its portfolio through M&A activity.
• On October 7, 2025, it closed the $1 billion all-cash acquisition of Specialty Products and Insulation (SPI), a prominent mechanical insulation distributor and fabricator serving the commercial, industrial, and residential sectors in North America.
• Funded through cash on hand and the proceeds from a $750 million senior notes issuance in September, the transaction excludes SPI’s metal building insulation (MBI) unit and reflects TopBuild’s push to deepen its presence in higher-margin, non-residential markets.

• Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Genting Bhd (GENT MK) at RM2.35, a 9.8% premium to the last close price of RM2.14. 
• The 50% minimum acceptance condition is easily met as Genting is the largest shareholder, representing 49.36% of outstanding shares. 
• Genting’s preferred endgame is to delist GENM, thereby fully benefiting if GENM successfully bids for a downstate New York casino licence. Therefore, there is a good chance of a bump. 

• On 13 October, Value Partners has come out in support of Samyang Holdings (000070 KS)’s equity spin-off plan but on the condition that the company must cancel its treasury shares.
• Value Partners believes Samyang Holdings is currently severely undervalued, trading at a P/B of 0.34x. A shareholders meeting for Samyang Holdings is scheduled for 14 October. 
• We have a positive view of this equity spin-off. Our NAV valuation of Samyang Holdings suggests an implied price per share of 127,138 won (28.6% higher than current price).

• BYD’s monthly sales volume decreased YoY for the first time in September.
• We expect the revenue growth rate will slow down to 16%, but op margin will rise in 2026.
• We believe the stock price is overvalued, whether measured by time-series or cross-sectional methods.

• Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
• GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
• GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.

• Top Toy International is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the next several months. 
• Top Toy was last valued at US$1.3 billion in July 2025 when it received a US$59.4 million Series A financing (of which Temasek contributed US$40 million for a 3.2% stake).
• Top Toy is trading at P/E of 32x (2024 net profit) (valuation of US$1.3 billion) versus Pop Mart (P/E of 103x based on its 2024 net profit). 

• LEN shareholders can exchange stock for MRP at a 6.38% premium, with an upper limit of 4.1367 MRP shares per LEN share.
• Odd-lot holders (99 shares or less) are prioritized and exempt from proration; oversubscription is expected, applicable to odd-lot positions only.
• The final exchange ratio is determined by VWAP from November 3-5; borrow risk for MRP exists, potentially impacting hedged positions.

• “Beautiful Skew” showed up again across the long holiday. Hs on average outperformed As by 1.57% over the 29-30 Sep and 9-10 Oct period.
• Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share OUTperform its A by 2.52% and it outright rose just over 1%. Meh.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• LG Electronics India (123D IN) debuts today and is poised for a strong listing pop, supported by record institutional oversubscription and robust grey market premiums.
• Retail investor shares saw a modest 3.5x subscription, underscoring the challenge of a billion-dollar IPO with a 35% retail allocation, which necessitated a steep pricing discount.
• Post-Debut, LGEIL’s likely market Cap at around USD11.5 bn could surpass its parent, despite 85% parent stake and USD1.3 bn raised from offer for sale of shares in IPO .

• As discussed in our previous BYD insight on October 3, the stock is oversold and could start a rally soon.
• BYD (1211 HK) was heavily overbought at its peak in mid-2025, then declined >30% in a few months. It’s oversold.
• However at the moment our model has identified the current short-term trend pattern as bearish: a 1-2 weeks rally can happen, but then the stock will pullback again. Caution advised.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$21bn a day in the four days spanning the long holiday break. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell.
• The recommended name was short Great Wall Motor (2333 HK). The stock was +1% over two weeks, but underperformed its H by 0.52%. Great Wall is down 4+% today.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU). 

• Context:Pop Mart (9992 HK) begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.
• This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context.
• Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently 14 pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• FineToday Holdings (420A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
• I previously discussed the investment thesis in FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case. 
• In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.

• Financial statements and accompanying explanations alone provide insufficient information about the background of earnings results and guidance, so overseas investors seek qualitative and information about long-term strategies regarding earnings information.
• Currently, only half of Prime Market-listed companies disclose full earnings releases in English. It’s only natural that investors would want IR briefing materials to be disclosed in English as well.
• Companies whose top management cannot communicate directly in English with overseas investors should provide simultaneous interpretation or written English translations for their investor relations presentations.

• LVMH’s decentralized model, managing a vast portfolio of over 75 distinct luxury Maisons, provides significant diversification across segments and geographies, mitigating risk and ensuring stable revenue streams.
• The company faces near-term headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in aspirational consumer spending, particularly in Asia, as reflected in a recent organic revenue decline.
• Management’s strategy focuses on elevating core ‘mega-brands’ like Louis Vuitton and Dior, divesting non-core assets, and enhancing local customer engagement to navigate the current challenging environment and support long-term profitability.

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• Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
• This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.
• Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.

• Hahn & Co, holding 21.63% of Hanon, won’t join the rights issue, raising the odds of a CJ CGV–style stock rights dump hitting the market.
• Hanon’s rights float mirrors CJ CGV (~17% post-ESOP), with Hahn & Co likely to sell, limited local demand, and potential follow-on selling pressure.
• Hanon’s 50% rights at 15% discount offer smaller float than CJ CGV, but larger deal size and weak EV sentiment create a potential CJ CGV–style arb, with SSF tradability.

• Global Apparel Leader with Strong Growth Momentum: Fast Retailing is a dominant force in the global apparel industry, primarily through its flagship UNIQLO brand. The company has demonstrated a consistent track-record of robust, double-digit growth in revenue and profits, driven by the successful international expansion of UNIQLO, particularly in North America and Europe. The company forecasts continued strong growth, projecting a 10.3% revenue increase for FY2026.
• Unique Business Model Focused on Quality and Innovation: Unlike typical fast-fashion players that chase fleeting trends, Fast Retailing‘s ‘LifeWear’ philosophy emphasizes high-quality, functional, and durable basics. This is supported by a vertically integrated SPA (Specialty-Store Retailer of Private Label Apparel) model, which controls the entire process from design to sale, and a strong focus on material innovation and technology to enhance operational efficiency.
• Strategic Challenges and Key Risks Remain: Despite its success, the company faces significant risks. It has a heavy reliance on Asian markets, particularly Greater China, making it vulnerable to regional economic and geopolitical instability. The global apparel market is intensely competitive, and the company must contend with formidable rivals like Inditex (Zara) and H&M, as well as navigate supply chain complexities and potential controversies regarding labor practices.

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• The recent earnings report from Renault Group reflected a mixed performance marked by several strategic and financial dynamics.
• The introduction of François Provost as the new CEO was a noteworthy event, suggesting a leadership transition focused on continuity, strategic maneuverability, and performance standards.
• On the financial front, Renault Group’s revenues rose to €27.6 billion, marking a 3.6% increase at constant exchange rates compared to the previous year.

• A recent fire at Novelis’ Oswego, New York, aluminum rolling mill has sent shockwaves through the U.S. auto manufacturing sector, with Ford Motor Co. standing out as one of the most directly affected.
• Novelis, the largest supplier of aluminum sheet to the U.S. auto industry, experienced a substantial disruption that forced the plant to temporarily halt production.
• Ford, which sources aluminum from this plant for several of its core vehicles, including the high-volume F-Series pickup trucks, is facing heightened supply chain risk as a result.

• Another of China’s major state-owned automakers is expanding its collaboration with Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., as legacy carmakers increasingly turn to the tech giant for an edge in the smart vehicle race.
• Dongfeng Motor Group Co. Ltd. Chairman Yang Qing on Monday met with Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, stating that Dongfeng will pursue comprehensive cooperation with Huawei in areas such as corporate management, product design, smart technologies and marketing, according to a Sept. 23 company statement.
• Several of Dongfeng’s brands, including Voyah, eπ and M-Hero, have already integrated Huawei’s systems into their vehicles.

• I tally 43- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)/Robex Resources (RXR AU), and Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).
• Key updates/news took place on: Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), and Mandom Corp (4917 JP).

• There has an excellent demand for the LG Electronics India (LGEI) IPO among the institutional investors which sets the stage for a positive rally once it starts trading.
• LGEI raised 4.43 trillion rupees in subscription funds during the general subscription period from 7 to 9 October. This amount is approximately 40 times the initial public offering (IPO) target.
• Our base case valuation is target price of 1,514 INR which is 33% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

• Context: The ABC Mart (2670 JP) vs. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long ABC Mart (2670 JP) and short Fast Retailing (9983 JP) targets an 11% return. Both companies reported very recently.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Tadashi Yanai has finally achieved one of his many long-term ambitions: surpassing ¥1 trillion in sales in the home market. 
• This, after exceeding ¥3 trillion globally for the first time but his goal of ¥10 trillion remains outstanding.  Whether a mostly single-brand company can achieve such volume is debatable.
• Yanai is rebuilding GU in the hopes of creating a second brand – while at last admitting failure with his old French acquisitions.

• FY02/26 forecast revised upward: revenue JPY225.0bn (+9.8% YoY), operating profit JPY8.2bn (+12.2% YoY), net income JPY4.8bn (+26.2% YoY).
• 1H sales rose 11.3% YoY, driven by product initiatives, new stores, and price revisions; profit margin improved.
• Overseas sales declined 1.7% YoY due to exchange rates; segment profit fell 4.8% YoY from higher labor costs.

• Even as more companies shifted to cash flow-focused management, their cash reserves remained stubbornly high, and few announced cash allocation policies. Finally, cash reserves began to decline—driven by TSE’s request.
• ROE and P/B of companies that disclosed in response to TSE’s request haven’t improved. Consequently, the strategic intent behind share buybacks appears weak and isn’t being well received by investors.
• The decision to veer away from increasing cash reserves is the first step. How long will it take before the next move emerges to improve capital profitability and generate value?

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the October catalog.
• With October another month of material YoY SKU declines and a focus on higher overall pricing, we believe it is increasingly obvious that Betterware management is focusing the overall business on driving higher returns.
• Further, even against materially tougher comparisons, the overall level of discounting has continued to tick down, which speaks to limited need to clear goods.

Key points (machine generated)

• ATRenew’s market capitalization has dropped 79% since its IPO in mid-2021 due to factors like the pandemic and economic slowdown.
• The company’s shift to direct retailing of refurbished devices has led to skepticism about profitability and minimal analyst coverage.
• Despite challenges, ATRenew shows potential for growth with an expected CAGR of 23.4% over the next four years.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Hong Kong equities erased last week’s gains, with further losses on Monday likely after Trump’s social media post Friday morning.
• Weakness was not widespread, though there was a sharp reversal in breadth week over week.
• Option volumes and ratios suggest there’s little concern in the market at this point.

• On the 29 September, the Interims to June 2025 were reported by this designer of electric automated transport technology and software used by the Automotive industry and airports.
• Revenue was 10% lower at £3.5m with a divergence of performance for the two divisions. Revenue at the automotive division (specialist components for electric vehicles) was affected by production volatility, while rising star the Autonomous division revenues increased 41% to £1.1m.
• The increase is being driven by trial deployments and contracts progressing to larger orders. 

• On our latest WTR Healthcare Happenings podcast, we welcomed back Mitch Steiner, CEO of Veru, Inc. (NASDAQ: VERU) to fill us in on the company’s latest significant developments and progress made since his previous appearance on our podcast in February 2025.
• Having divested its sexual health business for $18 million last year, Veru has pivoted toward the burgeoning obesity market with its lead drug candidate enobosarm, which selectively causes fat loss, while preserving lean mass in patients taking GLP-1 for weight loss.
• The state of the GLP-1 market for obesity. Steiner offered his take on the latest trends in the rapidly evolving GLP-1 market for weight loss.

• Today after the close, Value Act reported that it owned 7.87% of shares outstanding in Sun Corp (6736 JP) and it may make proposals to management. 
• This has been trading cheaply (and I pointed it out on 13 Aug and 12 Sep). Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) is up 35% in those 8 weeks. Sun Corp +50%.
• ValueAct had owned 4.9+% for at least a few months before, but now it has gone public. They were likely in already under a different name in March, now public.

• The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has responded to Effissimo’s allegations. As expected, the Board accuses Effissimo of stating half-truths. 
• The Board’s missive indirectly suggests that incremental acceptances since October 1 have been tepid, KeePer has not tendered, and the MBO is struggling to meet the minimum tendering condition. 
• The two likeliest outcomes are 1) the MBO succeeds at current terms with KeePer likely joining BidCo, and 2) both offers fail. The risk/reward is unattractive at the last close. 

• Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.   
• But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
• Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.

• Guidance slightly ahead: FY8/26 outlook modestly above consensus at both revenue and operating profit, signalling continued steady growth.
• Global strength offsets China: Expanding international markets and yen tailwinds continue to drive profitability, plus an end to lingering China weakness?
• Valuation supportive: Trading below historical averages on EBIT and P/E, offering global exposure at a reasonable multiple.

• The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect three ADDs and three DELs for December 2025. We also estimate there to be US$303mn in one-way flows.

• Dickson Concepts trades at a 40% discount to net cash, with a market cap of HK$2bn and HK$3.3bn in cash.
• Founder Dickson Poon attempted privatization at HK$7.20/share, blocked by minority shareholders with 10.16% voting against.
• Business remains profitable despite downturn, with average net income of HK$200m and HK$1.4bn operating business value.

• Total deliveries grew by 35% YoY in Sep. 2025 and 43% YoY in 3Q25.
• BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) deliveries were double of the same period last year.
• We believe the stock has at least 29% upside for next 12 months.

• Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) reported first half FY2026 revenue growth at 19%, well below the Street’s full-year consensus estimate of around 26%.
• With Zudio store expansion wave now maturing and no new growth engine of comparable scale yet in sight, revenue growth appears to be normalizing to the low double-digit range.
• In this context, the stock’s steep valuation multiples (78.5x 1-year forward P/E) look increasingly difficult to justify; as growth expectations are recalibrated a valuation de-rating seems likely.

• MSIL decisively shifted to UVs, reaching a 41% segment share in FY25 via key launches (Brezza, Grand Vitara), fundamentally reversing market share losses to become a full-range powerhouse.
• The revised GST flat rate of 40% for SUVs reduces prices and boosts affordability, creating a powerful dual catalyst with the festive season for significant volume and market share growth.
• Strong exports grew by 17.5%, establishing MSIL as the parent’s global EV hub and mitigating local risks, while high EBITDA margins (~13%) ensure profitable and sustainable growth.

Key points (machine generated)

• Hong Kong-listed bubble tea companies are seen as classic fad stocks, presenting short-selling opportunities.
• Guming is highlighted as the preferred choice for short-selling due to its available borrow, while Nayuki serves as a cautionary example of decline.
• The author compares the bubble tea trend to previous restaurant fads, indicating a pattern of declining growth and increased competition.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• World’s Largest Footwear Manufacturer: Yue Yuen is the global leader in athletic and casual footwear manufacturing, producing for top-tier brands like Nike, Adidas, and New Balance. Its immense scale provides significant competitive advantages.
• Dual Business Model with Integrated Retail: The company operates a core manufacturing (OEM/ODM) business and a significant sportswear retail and distribution arm in Greater China, Pou Sheng International (3813 HK). This provides diversification and end-to-end solutions for its brand partners.
• Challenging Near-Term Outlook but Attractive Valuation: While facing headwinds from rising labor costs, geopolitical uncertainties, and soft consumer demand in its retail segment, the company’s valuation appears compelling. Strong recent growth in net income and a high dividend yield present a potentially attractive risk/reward profile for long-term investors.

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• 94% of Bikaji’s revenue now falls under favorable GST slab due to the recent rate cut, positioning it to gain significant market share through lower consumer prices.
• The company is strategically passing on the tax benefit to consumers via higher grammage and lower MRP, which is expected to drive an incremental 2-3% volume growth while sustaining margins
• The company has the immediate manufacturing headroom and distribution reach to capture the expected volume surge without major, immediate capital expenditure.

• Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) ‘s business is contracting in volume and value, with declining margins, masking structural weakness through recurring excuses and shifting narratives across seasons and quarters.
• Disclosure standards have been reduced; management hides key metrics citing “competitive sensitivity,” obscuring true demand, volume trends, and domestic business performance.
• Q2 guidance cut to mid-single-digit growth confirms prior double-digit guidance was untenable, exposing weak underlying demand and the market’s slow recognition of systemic underperformance.

• Guangdong Chj Industry Co A (002345 CH) (CHJ) submitted an application to list H-shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
• Despite higher valuation multiples, the company has been able to successfully generate higher sales and profits in the past several years. 
• The high and rising global gold prices have created a strong loyal customers and investor base that could positively impact this IPO on the HK Stock Exchange. 

• Makes branded and contract manufacturing snack food and confectionaries in Melaka Malaysia
• Super Ring is its own brand which is very popular among customers for its unique flavour
• Company is expanding capacity indicating the future revenue and profit grow

• On Holding AG is a high-growth premium sportswear brand that has rapidly gained market share through innovative products, particularly its patented CloudTec® cushioning technology, and effective marketing strategies.
• The company demonstrates a strong financial profile with impressive revenue growth, high gross margins, and a robust balance sheet with more cash than debt, enabling significant reinvestment into global expansion and product diversification.
• Key risks to the investment thesis include a high valuation that prices in significant future growth, intense competition from established industry giants, and potential margin pressures from currency fluctuations and tariffs.

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• They are driving systemic change in childhood nutrition with real, organic, farm-fresh food–made with no added sugar, no preservatives, and nothing artificial.
• Their net sales were $94.3 million and $156.8 million and their net loss was $17.6 million and $23.8 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
• The current government shutdown could delay the debut of this IPO due to the SEC unable to deem IPOs “effective” in a timely manner. 

• LG Electronics India (LGEIL) ’s USD 1.3 bn IPO, which opened on October 6, closes for subscription today, October 9, and is expected to list on October 14th.
• LGEIL has secured Rs34.7 bn from anchor investors ahead of its Rs116.1 bn IPO, signaling a likely strong oversubscription at close today.
• LGEIL IPO, priced at a steep discount to peers do not fully reflect company’s comparative strengths – strong market leadership, high returns and growth potential. Expect listing pop of 30%+.

• Select Comfort, operating as Sleep Number, is facing significant financial headwinds, evidenced by a consistent decline in revenue and a shift from profitability to net losses over the past three years. This is reflected in the negative compound annual growth rates across all key financial metrics over the last decade.
• The company’s core competitive advantage lies in its patented, adjustable air-chambered smart bed technology (Sleep Number 360) and a direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales model. This allows for brand control and higher potential margins, but also necessitates significant marketing expenditure.
• The mattress industry is intensely competitive and sensitive to macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer discretionary spending. While the trend towards health and wellness and smart home technology presents an opportunity, the company faces threats from both traditional players and nimble online ‘bed-in-a-box’ competitors.

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• Sanae Taikichi will become the next Prime Minister of Japan. This is likely to have a Negative impact on the Korean automakers including Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp.
• Sanae Takaichi is a firm advocate of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” strategy to boost the economy with aggressive spending and easing monetary policy.
• The weakening JPY combined with existing tariff rate advantage versus the South Korea could further positively impact the Japanese auto makers versus the Korean auto makers. 

• Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
• Section-Transfer name Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) is expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of October 2025.
• New listings Orion Breweries (409A JP) and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) are expected to be included in TOPIX at the end of October 2025 and November 2025 respectively.

• LG Electronics India (123D IN) much awaited INR 116.1 bn IPO is set to open for subscription this week. It’s a complete OFS by the Korean Parent.
• While LG is the market leader, there are huge litigation liabilities ~74% of net-worth which could pose a serious threat to the financials, with particular attention to AMP spends proceedings.
• We also find it disturbing to note that the parent has taken out 175% of the free cash flows in FY23 and FY24 as interim dividends.

• Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) had a disappointing Q1FY2025 driven by lower sales in India & Europe and impact of raw material cost and foreign exchange rates.
• However, we expect business performance should revive in H2FY2025 driven by booster shot from India.
• We remain positive on long term prospects of the company driven by its maiden EV launch and long term growth plans though near term valuation appears to be full.

• FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
• FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
• In our previous note, we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about the updates from its most recent filings.

• Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s 1.63x P/B is near-trough level, but the recovery in earnings in FY26 (+56.4%) and improving industry figures suggest earnings have bottomed. 
• Its 2Q FY26 turnover grew 8.4%, accelerating from 4.7% in 1Q and -9.7% in FY25. The 1H turnover equals 49.3% of FY26F (vs. 47.2% historically). We see upgrade potential.
• With net cash amounting to 19.3% of the share price, its 15.9x and 12.4x PERs for FY26F and FY27F do not look stretched.

• Standard Market contains many companies with small market capitalizations and low trading liquidity, so there aren’t many companies in the Standard Market that institutional investors can consider as investment targets.
• Standard Market has more companies with P/B below 1x and ROE below 8%, but there’s little difference between Prime Market and Standard Market in their improvements over past two years.
• Whether companies disclosed improvement plans in response to the TSE’s request does not necessarily correlate with improvements in their P/B ratio or ROE.

• Midea will achieve double-digit growth in 2025. As domestic home appliance market enters a stage of competition for existing customers, B-end market and overseas markets have become new growth keys.
• The development path of three giants becomes clear – Midea pursues full industry chain synergy with diversified layout/digital capabilities.Haier builds a global brand matrix through high-end/localized operations.Gree is lagging behind.
• For mature industry leading enterprises, 10-18x P/E is reasonable, or market value of RMB430-855bn based on Midea’s 2025 net profit forecast. Considering higher growth, valuation would be higher than Haier.

• U.S. tire shipments projected at a record 340.2 million units in 2025  
•  Dynamics shift, with Chinese tire imports falling and SE Asian imports rising  
• Top players pursue expansion, innovation, and portfolio revamp  

• We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
• We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% YoY, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
• Read our recent initiation on ICTSI (ICT PM): Terminal Operator, Serial Grower With Pricing Power, 20% ROCE, 30% Net Margins 

• Dominant Market Leader with Strong Brand Equity: PNJ is the leading jewelry manufacturer and retailer in Vietnam, possessing a significant market share, a vast retail network of over 400 stores, and strong brand recognition that allows it to command premium pricing and foster customer loyalty.
• Favorable Long-Term Growth Drivers: The company is poised to benefit from structural tailwinds including a rising middle class, increasing urbanization, and a cultural affinity for gold. Furthermore, anticipated regulatory reforms (amendments to Decree 24) are expected to liberalize the gold market, potentially enhancing PNJ’s market dominance and ensuring a more stable supply of raw materials.
• Attractive Valuation with Resilient Financials: Despite short-term macroeconomic headwinds, PNJ has demonstrated resilient financial performance and a strong growth track record. Analyst commentary suggests the company is trading at an attractive valuation relative to its historical averages, presenting a compelling investment opportunity given its sound fundamentals and positive long-term outlook.

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• On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
• Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
• The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.

• Four weeks ago, CVC announced a family-led MBO of hair care and cosmetics company Mandom Corp (4917 JP) at a price which was decidedly too light, well below company plans.
• One activist wrote a letter clearly calling them out for accepting a low-ball price well below the Medium Term Management Plan target. Another bought a lot of shares. 
• On 25 September, Murakami-san and affiliates reported an 8.39% position. Seven trading days later it is 16.59% and the shares are up small from my last piece + 1. 

• LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.3bn via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India.
• LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume, as per Redseer Report.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• LG Electronics India (123D IN)/LGEIL, a subsidiary of LG Electronics (066570 KS), aims to raise up to US$1.3 billion through a secondary offering.
• I previously discussed the IPO in LG Electronics India IPO: The Bull Case, LG Electronics India IPO: The Bear Case and LG Electronics India IPO: Updates Support the Bull Case. 
• My valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs1,080-1,140 per share is attractive. Therefore, I would participate in the IPO.

• PDD Holdings, Inc.’s second-quarter 2025 financial results reflect a strategic focus on long-term value creation rather than short-term financial gains.
• The company’s revenue for the quarter increased by 7% year-over-year to RMB 104 billion, driven primarily by online marketing services and transaction services.
• However, operating profit experienced a significant decline of 21% year-over-year, reflecting the company’s substantial investments in enhancing its platform ecosystem through its RMB 100 billion support program aimed at bolstering merchant capabilities and fostering sustainable growth.

• Milky Mist Dairy Food Ltd (1023949D IN) is looking to raise about US$237m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Milky Mist Dairy Food Ltd (MMDFL) is a value-added dairy and packaged food manufacturer focused on premium products such as paneer, cheese, curd.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• Kalyan is aggressively expanding its non-South presence and scaling its omni-channel platform, Candere, driven by an asset-light, franchisee-owned, company-operated (FOCO) model.
• The FOCO model and a higher margin studded-jewellery mix in new markets are structurally improving return ratios and freeing up capital for aggressive, low-risk store rollouts.
• With significant deleveraging and a clear path to enhanced profitability, the fundamental story remains intact, nudging investors to look beyond cyclical factors and towards execution consistency.

• FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.  
• FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.
• The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage. 

• LG Electronics (066570 KS)  is selling 15% stake in Indian subsidiary LG Electronics India (123D IN). Interestingly, the market cap of Indian subsidiary shall now be equal to Korean parent
• Indian listed markets have hitherto offered selective consumer appliance plays. LGEI will become the largest of them all, offering access to the structural growth of consumer appliances in India
• IPO is priced attractively at 26-30x 1yr forward earnings. Near-term performance to benefit from recently announced indirect tax cuts as well as rate cuts. Must Apply

• G8 Education is Australia’s largest publicly listed provider of early childhood education and care (ECEC), operating over 400 centres. The company is poised to benefit from favorable demographic trends and increasing government support for the sector.
• Recent financial performance shows consistent revenue and net income growth, driven by improved occupancy rates and disciplined cost management. The company has also demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns through progressively higher dividends.
• Key strategic priorities include enhancing educational quality, improving workforce retention, and optimizing the centre network. However, the company faces significant risks from potential changes in government childcare subsidies, intense industry competition, and challenges in attracting and retaining qualified staff.

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