Energy & Materials Sector

• Freeport-McMoRan reported robust results for its second quarter of 2025, marked by significant sales volumes of both copper and gold which exceeded initial forecasts.
• The company benefited from higher copper prices, registering an average realization of over $4.50 per pound, and delivering quarterly EBITDA of $3.2 billion.
• Operating cash flows were also strong at $2.2 billion.

• On the 15th May, Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.
• Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania. 
• The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged. 

• Asian gasoline market saw strengthening in mid August, with cracks rebounding to around $10 per barrel
• Demand for non oxygenated low sulphur blend stocks increasing, driven by policy changes in Australia and the Middle East
• Malaysia’s subsidy increase for 95 RON gasoline impacting interron spreads and market volatility, potential challenges in transitioning to Eurofi standard gasoline by 2027

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• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been flat since April but started to take off after mid-August.
• Question: from a purely tactical perspective, is it still a good time to buy Gold? The precious metal is massively overbought at the moment, according to our model.
• Our tactical forecast: Gold (GOLD COMDTY)could go a bit higher, but it is so overbought that the short-term upside is probably limited. 

• Chinese mills eye production restart, boosting iron ore demand, but bloated construction steel inventories threaten to cap price gains.
• Managed money participants increased net long exposure to 134.9k lots last week, with overall futures and options open interest slipping by 11.2%.
• Bullish MA crossover drove prices above short-term averages. However, prices pressing the upper Bollinger band suggest overextension and heightened risk of a near-term pullback.

• JTEKT India outpaced industry growth in FY25 with CVJ commercialization and a 100% system supplier role for Maruti’s upcoming EV. 
• Strong OEM stickiness and global hub positioning provide revenue visibility, but heavy capex and margin compression weigh on near-term returns. 
• Growth remains structurally intact, but the story shifts to a transition phase, earnings quality and capital efficiency will stay constrained until FY27.

• SR demand in FY 2025 surges 9.3%, outpacing 6.1% rise in output  
• Imports rise nearly 17% YoY to 413,627 tons in FY 2024-25  
• Reclaimed Rubber consumption up 8.55% to 167,500 tons  

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• The rankings used for the September 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday’s (3rd September 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be made after the close on Friday.
• In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&A events which affect the index the next two quarters).

• Korea’s seeing classic sector rotation: H1 hot money is exiting shipbuilding and defense ETFs, with 7% of AUM out in a week, as traders hunt the next wave of flows.
• Short-Term plays focus on two angles: policy-driven sectors like retail/dividends, and less-run names. Secondary batteries lead flows, topping local sector ETF net inflows lately.
• Sector rotation trades focus on Sept 11 rebalances: TIGER Secondary Battery TOP 10 and KRX Semis. Long-short setups on top names plus rotation flows could spark notable price moves.

• What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.
• Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.
• What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.

• OPEC+’s accelerated supply rollback put Aramco’s earnings and dividend policy under pressure, forcing the oil giant into debt financing despite its unmatched low-cost advantage.
• With subdued Brent prices, Aramco’s cash flow has weakened, making its government-linked dividends increasingly reliant on borrowing amid volatile market conditions.
• Saudi Arabia’s supply gamble boosts long-term dominance but leaves Aramco exposed to near-term financial strain, as market outcomes hinge on OPEC+’s 07/Sep decision.

• BHP Group Limited has showcased a complex array of performance metrics and strategic adjustments in its fiscal year 2025 results, revealing both strengths and challenges.
• The company has delivered robust operational performance, achieving record production in key sectors such as iron ore and copper, which underscores BHP’s operational excellence and the competitiveness of its assets.
• Notably, BHP’s margins remain healthy with an EBITDA margin of 53%, suggesting that the company maintains a competitive edge despite a 10% decline due to commodity prices.

• Thyssenkrupp’s recent financial performance and strategic progress provide a mixed outlook for investors.
• The company is undergoing significant transformation, focusing on becoming a strategic holding entity with independently managed business segments.
• A key element of this transformation is the planned spin-off of thyssenkrupp Marine Systems in 2025, which is on track and backed by strong shareholder support.

• DuPont has agreed to divest its iconic Kevlar and Nomex Aramids business to Arclin, a specialty materials firm backed by private equity group TJC, in a $1.8 billion transaction.
• The deal structure includes approximately $1.2 billion in cash, a $300 million note receivable, and a $325 million non-controlling stake in Arclin, giving DuPont a 17.5% ownership interest.
• The transaction is part of DuPont’s broader corporate transformation strategy that includes streamlining operations and focusing on core growth areas such as electronics, healthcare, and water.

• Santacruz announced the successful completion of the fourth and fifth payments ($15M), including the final installment, to Glencore.
• This marks the satisfaction of the $40M Acceleration Option to complete the acquisition of the Company’s Bolivian assets.
• With these payments behind it, SCZ is well-positioned to allocate cash toward growth initiatives, M&A, and returning capital to shareholders, building on its proven success with the Bolivian portfolio acquisition.

• In this edition: • Shell | decided not to resume construction of its biofuels facility in Rotterdam • Unilever | plans major shake-up of top-200 management • Fugro | awarded two contracts to support Brazil’s offshore energy expansion

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
• The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
• The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.

• Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is the world’s largest merchant zinc smelter, with growing exposure to high-margin rare metals (Sb/In/Bi).
• Management is executing the “Troika Drive” strategy—expanding copper and nickel sulfate capacity while scaling strategic minerals and recycling.
• Stock trades at ~5x 2027E earnings and ~4.7x EV/EBITDA, a clear discount to peers, key risks remain rare metal price volatility, zinc TC/RC recovery timing

• This is the third report in our series analysing the state and outlook for Indian steel majors in their ambition to expand capacity while meeting decarbonisation goals.
• Following our reports on JSW Steel and Tata Steel, this edition focuses on Jindal Steel.
• Jindal Steel has set a net zero emissions target for 2047, 23 years ahead of India’s national goal.

• Context: The IGO (IGO AU) vs. Iluka (ILU AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long IGO (IGO AU) and short Iluka Resources (ILU AU) targets a 12% return to the one standard deviation level.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• While MEC’s (4971 JP) FY25 (Dec year-end) 1H sales fell short of guidance by 2.2% to ¥9,387mil (+5.7% YoY), OP improved +3.3% YoY to ¥2,440mil, coming in 8.5% above the firm’s guidance of ¥2,250mil.
• This was primarily due to less than expected SG&A spending – something the firm had flagged in an earlier release.
• Net profit [NP] was revised from ¥1,450mil (-23.2% YoY) to ¥1,893mil (+0.2% YoY), thanks to the receipt of a subsidy from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry [METI] specifically for smaller sized companies to support growth investment.

• Jetstream #1 recorded a peak flow rate exceeding 1.3 mmcf/d of raw gas during a compression-assisted test, with no formation water encountered.
• This represents a ~2.5-fold increase over the flow rate achieved without compression, and is approximately 60–65% higher than the rate recorded during the April 2024 test under comparable conditions.
• Jetstream #1 delivered a net helium peak flow rate of ~0.19 mmcf/d—among the highest reported by junior helium E&Ps in North America.

Key points (machine generated)

• Advansix is the lowest-cost producer of nylon and caprolactam, improving mid-cycle EBITDA from $200 million pre-COVID to $250-300 million.
• The company’s strong vertical integration and cost advantages create a durable competitive moat, enabling profitability during downturns.
• With a current enterprise value of $850 million and a valuation of $39-48 per share, Advansix presents potential for attractive investor returns.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

•  U.S. tariffs and low-cost Asian imports reshape Brazil’s tire industry
• ADD on Chinese passenger tires renewed to shield local producers
• Michelin to shut down its Guarulhos plant in Sao Paulo by Dec 2025

• CNMC delivered a stellar financial performance in 1HFY25.
• The Group’s 1HFY25 net profit surged 251.4% YoY to US$19.4 million, exceeding FY24 full year net profit of US$12.2 million.
• 1HFY25 revenue increased 78.0% YoY to US$52.8 million, the highest in any half-year period since CNMC’s inception.

Key points (machine generated)

• DSM-Firmenich was formed through a €20 billion merger between DSM and Firmenich, combining expertise in nutrition, health, and fragrances.
• Concerns arose about the merger’s synergies due to minimal overlap between the companies and skepticism about achieving targeted revenue and EBITDA synergies.
• The merger coincided with a downturn in DSM’s markets, leading to falling vitamin prices, but it also presents a unique opportunity for the new entity.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• FMG’s FY25 earnings slumped, with net profit hitting a five-year low as weak Chinese demand and global oversupply pressured prices.
• Heavy reliance on iron ore and limited diversification keep Fortescue lagging peers Rio Tinto and BHP, amplifying downside risks ahead.
• Fragile share price recovery faces technical headwinds, while narrowing steel mill margins undermine near-term prospects for premium ore demand.

• Stockland posted a strong FY25 result and guidance, highlighting growth potential in residential and commercial property, while addressing funding concerns.
• -Stockland posts FY25 and FY26 guidance beats -Master-planned communities growth a highlight in residential -Data centre partnerships to drive commercial -Analysts praise a reduced dividend payout

• Global base oils prices hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Margins hold firm at time of year when fundamentals are typically weaker.
• Firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high base oils output.

• Company: Founded in 2000 through the merger of Hoxan, Daido Sanso, and Kyodo Oxygen, Air Water is a diversified conglomerate spanning industrial gases, healthcare, food logistics, and energy.
• Future Plans: Driving growth through semiconductor gases, UPS systems for AI/data centers, and hydrogen infrastructure, while scaling healthcare and logistics.
• Valuation: Trades at ~7x EV/EBITDA and 11x forward P/E, a deep discount to global peers (Linde, Air Liquide at 14–17x EV/EBITDA).

• Asia’s base oils demand could stay more cautious amid expectations of healthy availability of supply, concern about exposure to lower prices.
• Cautious buying would coincide with likely seasonal pick-up in lube consumption in coming weeks.
• Dynamic leaves blenders facing challenge of holding sufficient supplies to meet finished lube demand while maximising benefit of any further fall in base oils prices.

• India’s imported Group II heavy-grade base oils cargo price-premium to FOB prices in US and Asia holds firm and in relatively narrow range in recent weeks.
• Price-spread stays in narrow range as CFR India cargo price tracks lower FOB Asia/US Gulf coast prices.
• CFR India cargo price falls amid pick-up in availability of supplies, boosting buyers’ choice.

• What you need to know: • Capitan Silver announced its first set of drill results from its ongoing 10,000m phase 1 drill program.
• • Drilling intersected a new high-grade intercept (2,636 g/t Ag over 1.5m) ~150m east, expanding the Jesus Maria zone.
• • Drilling continues with 6,700m of 10,000m completed to date, and assays are pending for 30 holes.

• What you need to know: • ADF entered into an agreement to acquire Groupe LAR Inc. for $19M.
• LAR operates in the machining, welding, and industrial mechanics sectors, primarily focusing on the large-scale hydroelectricity market.
• • LAR posted $80.9M in revenue in 2024 (ending December 31st) and had a backlog of $104.5M as of July 31st.

Key points (machine generated)

• Stephen Loukas was appointed CEO of Obsidian in 2019, guiding the company to financial stability through strategic asset transactions.
• Loukas, with an asset manager’s perspective, may consider selling the company or its assets to larger operators for maximum value.
• On April 7, 2025, Obsidian sold its Pembina assets for $220 million, with Loukas emphasizing a cautious approach to future asset sales.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Asia’s base oils prices hold firm versus Singapore gasoil prices.
• Firm base oil margins so far in Q3 2025 point to fundamentals that remain sufficiently balanced and that curb need for lower output levels.
• Firm margins coincide with signs of relatively steady base oils output in early-Q3 2025 even after completion of most plant-maintenance work.

• Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.
• The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.
• In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Last week, rare-earth play Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close. 
• Gina Rinehart, Lynas’ second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment. 
• Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.

• There has been an increasing probability of the Hanwha Group selling its stake in Korea Zinc (010130 KS) mainly due to increasing burden of its petrochemical affiliates.
• For now, the Hanwha Group has denied all news regarding its potential sale of stake in Korea Zinc.
• In our view, the timing of this potential sale in Korea Zinc by Hanwha Group is less likely in 2025 but could occur in 2026/2027. 

• Two days after announcing its 2025 interims, Holcim (HOLN SW)-backed Huaxin Cement (6655 HK) proposed spinning off its overseas cement assets.
• The overseas ops, predominantly located in Africa, significantly outperformed the PRC ops in FY24, a trend that continued into 2025. 
• No preferred bourse was stipulated, although the HKEx appears the logical choice. Pegged to historical trading metrics, Huaxin appears fully valued here.

• ICLN has surged more than 35% since April, driven by record renewable generation, strong corporate earnings, and institutional inflows.
• Investors and banks are rotating capital from fossil fuels into clean energy, signalling structural shifts and fuelling the rise of solar and renewables.
• Global clean energy investment, led by solar, points to the early stages of a solar super cycle, positioning ICLN as a prime long-term play.

• Market Structure Signals Stability: Gold futures have remained range-bound near technical resistance, with intraday volatility compressing—suggesting a market more likely to drift than break.
• ETF and Vault Flows Show Steady Demand: Sustained inflows into the SPDR Gold Trust and consistent London vault holdings point to underlying investor interest, even without aggressive price action.
• Positioning Data Reveals Divergence: Commercial hedgers are easing short exposure while speculative players show mixed sentiment, hinting at a market caught between caution and latent bullishness.

• National Aluminium (NACL IN) has announced a significant INR 30,000 crore capex over the next five years, its largest in recent history, to expand its core smelting, power generation capabilities.
• Targeting an almost doubling of its smelting capacity and securing long-term power supply. This is crucial for NALCO to enhance its competitiveness and achieve the coveted “Maharatna” status by 2030.
• This expansion, funded by a mix of internal accruals and debt, positions NALCO for an earnings inflection point, contingent on disciplined execution and favorable long-term commodity cycles.

• Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
• Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
• Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.

• A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.
• OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet (GOOG US) , BYD (1211 HK) , S&P/ASX 200 , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY) 
• OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Meta (META US) , Nasdaq-100 , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

• On 29 August 2025, the company completed a Secondary Offering of $317m in which Abu Dhabi National Oil Company decreased its stake from 81% to 78%.
• A free float increase is expected to be implemented at the close of 2 September for Global All-World.
• Inclusion in Global Standard is projected for November 2025 following a float cap increase caused by the offering.

• Sidara’s 30p/share offer, backed by $450m funding and debt extension, is the only viable path; yet “Exceptional Conditions” make this deal unusually binary despite board support.
• The audit (clean FY24 balance sheet opinion by 31 Oct 2025) and A&E by 31 Dec 2025 are non-waivable gates; clearing both crystallizes 30p, missing either drives automatic lapse.
• Probability-Weighted target price stands at 24.9p; distressed entries retain compelling upside, but pre-existing holders rely heavily on successful completion. Break risk implies severe equity impairment if conditions fail.

• Major agencies now align on a possible consensus: the crude market is entering a phase of structural imbalance.
• Inventory builds and shifting producer strategies are setting the stage for a market environment not seen in years.
• Historical parallels suggest that the coming quarters may test price resilience more than recent memory.

• Silver has rallied nearly 40% over the past year, outpacing other precious metals on the back of record industrial demand and renewed investor flows.
• Persistent structural deficits, led by solar PV and EVs, point to a supportive multi-year backdrop even if investment flows remain volatile.
• For Japan, Dowa Holdings’ 30% stake in Los Gatos offers the only meaningful listed exposure to primary silver mining, with earnings leverage that is underappreciated by the market.

• I tally 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Dongfeng (489 HK), Austindo Nusantara Jaya (ANJT IJ), Shengjing Bank (2066 HK), and HD Heavy (329180 KS)/HD Mipo (010620 KS). .
• Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), and Ashimori Industry (3526 JP).

• In a stunning geopolitical development, ExxonMobil has reportedly engaged in secret discussions with Rosneft—Russia’s largest state-owned energy company—regarding a potential return to the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project.
• These talks, led by Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman, signal a possible energy détente between Washington and Moscow, tied to broader negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
• The meetings were held under U.S. Treasury Department licenses that allow for discussions on stranded assets and involved back-channel diplomacy, including conversations between Exxon CEO Darren Woods and former President Donald Trump.

• Iron ore miners lift output guidance, signalling confidence despite China’s property slump and slowing steel demand.
• India emerges as a critical growth driver yet cannot offset China’s structural steel demand weakness.
• Rising supply from Simandou and peers heightens downside risk, keeping the iron ore outlook cautiously bearish.

• Avery Dennison Corporation, a global materials science and manufacturing company, reported its second quarter results ending June 28, 2025.
• The company delivered adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.42, aligning with the previous year’s results.
• This performance was achieved amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, characterized by trade policy changes impacting its operations, especially within the apparel and retail sectors.

• Chinese miner MMG Ltd. saw a dramatic surge in output at its Las Bambas copper mine in Peru in the first half of this year, helped by its efforts to improve its rocky relationship with locals.
• In the six months through June, the mine produced about 210,000 tons of copper, up 67% year-on-year, with revenue from the project jumping 60% to $2 billion, according to the company’s latest earnings report.
• Las Bambas accounted for nearly three-fourths of MMG’s total first-half revenue, which rose 47% to $2.8 billion.

• In a strategic pivot aimed at expanding its foothold in specialty materials, Westlake Corporation recently announced its agreement to acquire the global compounding solutions businesses of the ACI/Perplastic Group.
• While the sum of the deal remains undisclosed, the implications are far-reaching.
• ACI, headquartered in Portugal, is a key manufacturer of compounds for the wire and cable industry, posting net sales of approximately €210 million in 2024.

• Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) shares are down 15.3% YTD and remains undervalued relative to peers. Asset optimisation, buybacks & dividends to drive its share prices higher.
• Firm has identified USD 1 billion in annual cost savings, with at least 50% expected to be realized in the second half of 2025.
• The company has reiterated its commitment to shareholder returns via USD 1 billion buyback and USD 1 billion through dividend payout.

• The Engineered Materials segment, driven by AI/5G-linked products like MicroThin™ and FaradFlex®, is poised for strong growth, offsetting near-term Metals segment weakness.
• A forward valuation of ~17× P/E and ~7.5× EV/EBITDA, supported by strong growth in MicroThin™ and the scaling of FaradFlex®, is broadly in line with peers.
• Key risks include metals price volatility, execution delays in FaradFlex®/MicroThin™ ramp-up, and intensifying competition from Asian copper foil and laminate producers.

Key points (machine generated)

• Trinseo has historically been viewed as a high-risk investment due to its troubled history and significant leverage.
• Recent improvements in its balance sheet and liquidity position, including over $450 million available through 2025, indicate a potential shift in investment outlook.
• The alignment of bid-ask expectations for asset sales suggests a positive recovery potential for Trinseo in the next 12-18 months.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) ‘s Birla Opus rolled out “Birla Opus Assurance”— India’s first 1-year free repainting program covering various defects.
• This is just another marketing technique, aimed at capturing market share from existing players. Because of the cut throat competition, other players are expected to launch similar programs.
• Ultimately, this would lead to higher warranty provisioning as well as higher A&P spends, thereby impacting the margins. But in long run, we expect warranty claims to be modest.

• CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN) (CEESL) is looking to raise about US$570m in its upcoming India IPO. 
• The deal, a combination of a fresh issue and an offer for sale, will be run by Axis, HSBC, IIFL, JPM, Nomura, BNP Paribas, Bob Caps and SBI Caps.
• CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.

• June output rises MoM, but sharply lower YoY  
•  Exports declined 17.3%, with glove shipments softening  
• Price volatility intensified, underscoring demand uncertainty

• Journey is a JV partner with Spartan Delta in a large, contiguous acreage position near Gilby with 200 gross (60 net) well locations for future development.
• The JV drilled, completed, and brought online eight wells this summer.
• Early performance has exceeded Journey’s initial Duvernay type curve. (see Figures 1 and 2).

• Green Plains (GPRE) is a biorefining company that converts renewable crops like corn into ethanol and other low-carbon sustainable ingredients through fermentation and patented ag technologies.
• This year, the company announced a shift from innovation to commercialization of key technologies, focusing on growth opportunities in low-carbon and sustainable products.
• GPRE is an early mover in ethanol carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). 

• Plains All American Pipeline reported a solid financial performance in their second quarter of 2025 with an adjusted EBITDA of $672 million attributable to the company.
• This performance was underpinned by growth in the Permian segment and contributions from recent bolt-on acquisitions.
• However, the NGL segment experienced a sequential decline due to typical seasonal factors and lower frac spreads, reflected in a $87 million in adjusted EBITDA for that segment.

• Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAGP) reported solid financial performance for the second quarter of 2025.
• The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $672 million, driven by increased Permian volume growth and contributions from recent bolt-on acquisitions.
• The second quarter saw a significant strategic decision with the execution of agreements to sell most of its Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) business in Canada to Keyera for $3.75 billion, set to close in early 2026.

• Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) is looking to raise up to US$488m in a primary placement.
• The deal is a relatively small one, representing 9.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 5.5% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• FY2024–25 results showed a sharp rebound, with Resources strength (copper, gold) more than offsetting Smelting losses.
• August FY2025 guidance raised PBT and dividend despite trimming sales and Smelting outlook, reflecting confidence in core earnings.
• EBITDA is set to grow ~6–7% over FY2025–27, leaving the stock inexpensive on P/E (~12x vs peers ~16x).

• China’s planned steel cuts may lift global prices, while India and Southeast Asia’s infrastructure demand sustains robust iron ore consumption.
• Managed money participants trimmed net long exposure to 18.5k lots last week, with overall futures and options open interest slipping by 0.8%.
• Bullish MA crossover and MACD confirm renewed buying interest and strengthen the case for higher near-term price momentum.

• MP Materials reported a significant transformation in its operations and strategic positioning during the second quarter of 2025.
• The company has embarked on strategic partnerships with the Department of Defense (DoD) and Apple, marking a new chapter in its operational history.
• These partnerships serve as significant validations of MP Materials’ strategic mission and reflect substantial steps towards enhancing its supply chain capabilities and vertical integration.

• Martin Marietta, a leading supplier of building materials, demonstrated robust operational and financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, amid challenging weather and subdued residential demand.
• The company recorded several financial milestones, including an 8% year-over-year increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA to $630 million and a 35% EBITDA margin, up 170 basis points.
• Aggregates revenues rose by 6% to $1.32 billion, driven by sustained pricing momentum and effective cost management.

Nabaltec recorded subdued results in H125, due to an increasingly challenging market environment, with both revenue and EBIT decreasing 1.7% and 18.5% y-o-y, respectively, to €106.5m and €8.9m. Despite this, EBIT in Q225 rose 14.6% versus Q125, while revenue declined 5.3%. Management adjusted its FY25 guidance from 3–5% revenue growth to a decrease of up to 2%. This updated revenue guidance mirrors that of the chemical industry so far in 2025. However, Nabaltec reiterated its profit guidance for FY25, anticipating an EBIT margin of 7–9%, achieving 8.4% at H125 (FY24: 9.9%). We have, therefore, adjusted our FY25 estimates and valuation, while introducing FY26 estimates, to reflect both management’s guidance and the current environment in which Nabaltec operates. Our updated valuation for Nabaltec is €26.3 per share (down from €29.9/share), representing upside of around 99% to the current share price.

• Pembina Pipeline Corporation’s second-quarter 2025 financial results present an intricate blend of growth potential and challenges.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA was reported at $1.013 billion, reflecting a 7% decline from the same period the previous year.
• Despite the downturn, Pembina remains optimistic about achieving its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $4.225 billion to $4.425 billion.

• Prospech Limited (ASX:PRS) is a junior explorer focused on the exploration and development of rare earths and copper-gold projects in Finland and Slovakia.
• The company’s flagship Korsnäs project is the most advanced with PRS growing the scale of the resource over the last year in addition to demonstrating promising, but early, minerology and metallurgical test work outcomes.
• With cash of ~$0.55m as of 30 June 2025, PRS appears to have funding to progress activities across the company’s portfolio of projects.

• Red Metal Limited (ASX:RDM) is a junior explorer with a suite of projects covering rare earths, copper and gold all of which are located within Australia.
• The company’s current flagship project is Sybella, which is a granite-hosted rare earths deposit located south-west of Mt Isa, Queensland.
• The company’s other projects are focused on copper and gold with several moving toward drilling over H2 2025.

• • 2Q25 production averaged 3,768 boe/d, impacted by water handling constraints and steeper-than-anticipated early declines at newly drilled wells.
• • Current WI production stands at ~4,200 boe/d, down from the July peak of 4,600–4,800 boe/d, which reflected initial flush output from AB-HZ5 and AB-HZ4.
• While first-month decline rates are steep, Arrow has observed that post-month-one declines are minimal.