Energy & Materials Sector

• Northern Star Resources (NST AU) is looking to raise around US$725m in a secondary placement.
• The proceeds will be used to pay down Gold Fields.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• A significant production impact from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following a deadly mud rush incident, could lead to a spike in copper prices.
• The force majeure in the Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) mine will take out 700,000 tons of annualized production in the foreseeable future (>2.5% of global copper production).
• Copper players like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), and Teck Resources (TECK US) would be beneficiaries, while Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) could be significantly affected.

• Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
• Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
• Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.

• Copper & Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.
• Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.
• Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.

• Glencore’s dual role as competitor and gatekeeper shifts bargaining leverage, making deal terms contingent on a rival’s consent.
• Cross-Continental reviews across Canada, Chile, and beyond create compounding risks of serial delays, amplified by political sensitivities over copper’s strategic importance and public opposition to foreign takeovers.
• The option of counterbids or merger breakup invites activists and bidders, fuelling uncertainty and volatility 

• Citi warns iron ore’s rally is overstretched, with policy support and supply disruptions priced in, leaving limited upside ahead.
• Managed Money participants are ramping up net long exposure, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and rising confidence in stronger demand and price gains.
• Iron ore’s momentum is fading as Bollinger Bands and MACD flash bearish signals, with sellers gaining control and downside risks rising.

• Crude oil futures were challenging monthly highs Wednesday, extending the previous session’s gains as investors eyed threats to oil supplies, including Russian diesel, after the latest spate of refinery attacks.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $69.13/b (2010 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $67.63/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $64.86/b against a previous close of $63.41/b.
• Benchmarks have largely been rangebound in September with markets torn between supply disruptions and concerns over a Q4 supply glut as OPEC+ continues its unwinding program.

• Volume growth: Capacity rising from 3 mtpa to 4 mtpa by early 2026 supports double-digit EPS growth.
• Margin strength: >50% gross margins and net-cash balance sheet provide resilience despite alumina cyclicality.
• Valuation appeal: Trades at 7–8× FY25E P/E and ~5× EV/EBITDA, a discount to regional peers.

• Crude oil futures eased back from multi-week highs Thursday amid profit taking but remained at the top end of the summer trading range.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $68.80/b (0945 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $69.31/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at   $64.45/b against a previous close of $64.99/b.
• Prices slipped after hitting the highest levels since July on what was put down to profit-taking, but concerns over Russian supplies continued to underpin the relatively elevated levels.

• Rubber exports rebound in July, lifting Cambodia’s monthly earnings  
• Domestic consumption surges 76%, reshaping supply-demand dynamics  
• Smallholder reforms push sector toward increased efficiency

• Fermi set terms for its IPO on Wednesday afternoon and will offer 25 million shares at $18-$22 and to debut on Wednesday, 10/1.
• One of Fermi’s founders is former energy sector director, Rick Perry.
• The underwriters have reserved for sale at the initial public offering price up to 5% of the shares of common stock for sale through a directed share program.

• POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) is looking to raise up to US$169m via selling some of its stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP).
• This deal represents 1.5 days of ADV representing around 0.7% of shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Tokai has sold its lossmaking German electrode unit, cut global electrode capacity by 25%, and acquired Bridgestone’s 180ktpa Thai carbon black plant — actions that remove EBIT drag 
• These moves could lift FY27 EPS from ~¥92 (base case) to ¥125–130 (+35–40%), with margins rising toward 9–10% versus 5.5% in FY24. Q1 FY25 already (OPM 8.9%).
• Shares remain flat at ~¥1,000 (0.8× P/B, 19.6× FY25E P/E falling to 8.8× FY28E), leaving room for re-rating if Tokai delivers sustained >8% margins over the next 2–3 quarters.

• Crude oil futures steadied Wednesday, consolidating the previous session’s gains as investors eyed threats to oil supplies, including Russian diesel after the last spate of refinery attacks.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $67.90/b (1030 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $67.63/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $63.55/b against a previous close of $63.41/b.
• Benchmarks have largely been rangebound in September with markets torn between supply disruptions and concerns over a Q4 supply glut as OPEC+ continues its unwinding program.

• Following another unsuccessful bid for Santos, analysts review the company’s outlook with a focus on valuation and dividend support.
• -Santos’ takeover bid scuppered for the third time -Share price premium eases, focus returns to company fundamentals -Analysts review valuation and dividend support -Macquarie sees “extraordinary value” for long-term investors

On 10 September, Wheaton (WPM) announced that it had committed to contribute to Carcetti Capital’s financing of its acquisition of the Hemlo mine from Barrick in the form of a US$400m gold stream (c 39% of Carcetti’s total funding requirement). At the current gold price of US$3,650/oz, we calculate a 9.2% pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) to Wheaton from its investment in Hemlo. At Edison’s more conservative, longer-term gold prices, we forecast that Hemlo will contribute an average of 0.9c/share to Wheaton’s EPS per annum, over the official 14-year life of the mine, and that it will contribute an average of 7.2c to Wheaton’s operational cash flow per share. At the same time, we have increased our Q325 EPS estimate by 4.4% and our FY25 EPS estimate by 5.7% to reflect recent strength in precious metals prices. Note that, at these levels, our FY26 EPS estimate rises from the US$1.44/share shown below to US$3.15/share.

• What you need to know: • Drill results continue to roll in following Omai’s recently reported large updated MRE on the 100% owned Omai Gold Project in Guyana.
• • Today’s assay results came after the cutoff date for the MRE; however will be included in the upcoming PEA.
• • OMG plans to report an updated PEA in Q4/25 on the new resource and include the Gilt Creek deposit (which was not included in the 2024 PEA).

• • 1H25 production of 5,642 boe/d and net cash of US$22.6 mm at the end of June had been reported previously.
• • 1H25 operating cashflow was US$16.1 mm, exceeding our forecast of US$13.4 mm, driven by stable output at TGT—Pharos’ most profitable asset.
• • The FY25 production guidance range has been narrowed from 5.0-6.2 mboe/d to 5.2-6.0 mboe/d.

• What you need to know: • Rio2 announced two MOUs for the potential supply of desalinated water to the Fenix Gold Mine.
• The two studies will evaluate the potential expansion of the two companies’ desalination facilities through operating plants and constructing a pipeline from their distribution facilities.
• • This would allow Fenix to move forward with its expansion plan, where annual production scales from 82Koz per year to over 300Koz.

• Press reports indicated that China could temporarily suspend purchases of BHP’s iron ore from Jimblebar, which could account for a mid-single digit percentage of revenue
• The UK press reported Geraldine Slattery will likely be BHP’s new CEO, who currently heads BHP’s Australian operations and has over three decades with the company
• BHP is 4% above our DCF, its 2.8x P/B is not clearly excessive or attractive, and we see risks to iron ore, copper and coal prices from a broad slowdown

• Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.
• Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).
• Valuation & Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.

• Exide Industries is doubling down on lithium-ion cell and pack manufacturing with huge committed capex, while sustaining its dominant lead-acid franchise.
• The company’s strong cash flows from lead acid batteries are funding high-risk, high-reward bets on EV and renewable storage, positioning it as India’s only dual-chemistry energy storage leader.
• Execution risk in lithium-ion scale-up is high, but Exide’s brand equity provide a buffer. The story now hinges on whether early-mover advantage in Li-ion can translate into sustainable returns.

• Tire makers see profit pressure despite revenue gains  
• JK Tyre eyes double-digit growth, expands global footprint  
•  CEAT eyes expanding Chennai plant at US$51 million spend  

• Crude oil futures were climbing higher on Tuesday as concerns about oversupply vied with geopolitical uncertainty to set the tone for the early part of the week.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $67.91/b (2017 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $66.57/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $63.71/b against a previous close of $62.28/b.
• Benchmarks had opened the session lower, but geopolitical tensions continue to keep markets on edge amid ongoing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, while Russian military activity close to the Polish border has raised wider tensions.

• Crude oil futures were slightly lower on Tuesday as concerns about oversupply vied with geopolitical uncertainty to set the tone for the early week.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $66.37/b (0850 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $66.57/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $62.10/b against a previous close of $62.28/b.
• Markets have been unable to shake off fears of a looming supply glut, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) setting off alarm bells last month with its forecast of a 2.5 million bpd Q4 surplus rising to over 3 million bpd next year, with OPEC+ seemingly on course to add more 2.5 million bpd by the end of this year.

• Canyon Resources (CAY AU) is looking to raise around US$132m in a primary placement.
• The company will use the proceeds to fund capital expenditures, as well as increase its stake in the railway line serving its mine in Central Africa’s Cameroon.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Yankuang Energy Group is a major Chinese state-owned enterprise, primarily engaged in coal mining, which accounts for the majority of its revenue. The company is actively diversifying into coal chemicals, new materials, and renewable energy to mitigate risks associated with the global energy transition and fluctuating commodity prices.
• The company’s financial performance is heavily influenced by coal price volatility. While it has demonstrated periods of strong profitability and shareholder returns, recent performance has been impacted by declining coal prices, leading to a significant drop in net income.
• Strategically, Yankuang is focused on expanding its production capacity in both coal and chemicals, while also setting ambitious targets for renewable energy. However, this expansion is largely debt-fueled, raising concerns about its financial leverage and balance sheet fragility amidst a challenging market outlook for coal.

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• Strong, Fully-Funded Growth Profile in Tier-1 Jurisdictions: Alamos Gold is executing a significant production growth plan, expecting to increase output by approximately 24% from 2024 to 2027, with a long-term target of around 900,000 ounces annually. This growth is driven by low-cost, high-return organic projects in Canada, including the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold and the newly approved Lynn Lake project, which are fully funded by internal cash flow.
• Declining Cost Trajectory and Margin Expansion: The company is positioned for a significant reduction in all-in sustaining costs (AISC), projected to fall from ~$1,275/oz in 2024 to as low as $1,125-$1,225/oz by 2027. This cost improvement, driven by the completion of major capital projects and economies of scale, should lead to substantial margin expansion and free cash flow generation, particularly in a strong gold price environment.
• Solid Financial Position and Experienced Management: Alamos maintains a robust balance sheet with a strong liquidity position and a conservative leverage profile, providing the flexibility to fund its growth pipeline. The company is led by a seasoned management team, including founder and CEO John A. McCluskey, who has a proven track record of value creation and operational execution since 2003.

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• Dominant Market Position with Strong Growth: As a leading state-owned enterprise, China Energy Engineering Corp (CEEC) is a key player in China’s energy and infrastructure construction sectors. The company has demonstrated a robust growth track record with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 10.68% and a net income CAGR of 8.88%, driven by strong domestic investment in energy infrastructure and its active participation in the global Belt and Road Initiative.
• Significant Cash Flow Concerns: Despite impressive top-line growth, the company exhibits a critical weakness in cash flow generation. Free cash flow has been severely negative over the past three years and the last several quarters, indicating that high capital expenditures and working capital requirements are consuming more cash than the operations generate. This raises concerns about the quality of earnings and long-term financial sustainability.
• Strategic Focus on New Energy: CEEC is strategically aligning with China’s national goals for carbon neutrality by increasing its focus on renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and hydropower. This transition presents a significant long-term growth opportunity, but also requires substantial upfront investment, contributing to the current negative free cash flow.

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• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.
• At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).
• At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.
• The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.
• With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.

• Despite initial concerns about tariffs and policy uncertainty hurting global economy, many major metals have seen significant price gains this year
• Tariffs have been implemented, but manufacturers have absorbed costs in margins rather than passing them on to consumers
• Despite signs of economic strain in recent data, commodity prices remain strong due to US dollar weakness making commodities more affordable for importing countries

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• Altona Rare Earths is the successor to Altona Energy, which listed on AIM in 2005.
• A new management team has wisely shifted the focus to critical minerals and decided to focus on the Monte Muambe Rare Earth Project, as it could quickly move into production.
• Altona is being led by Africa-based CEO Cédric Simonet, who has an in-depth knowledge of the continent’s resources projects and is a trained geologist.

• Crude oil futures opened the week slightly firmer as traders continued to monitor disruptions to Russian flows amid ongoing attacks against infrastructure and sanctions threats.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $67.22/b (0735 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $66.68/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $62.90/b against a previous close of $62.40/b.
• The prospect of tighter measures against Moscow was seen increasing with European leaders pushing for a wider rollout, including secondary tariffs.

• Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.
• Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.
• Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.

Created through a merger of equals between Sayona Mining and Piedmont Lithium, Elevra Lithium (ELV) provides unparalleled exposure to the North American hard rock lithium market. The largest regional pure play spodumene producer, Elevra has a strong pipeline of advanced development projects, offering flexible growth, and is well positioned to benefit from the growing localisation of the lithium supply chain in the US. Trading at a large discount to peers on sales multiples, we see the potential for a meaningful value uplift once the company achieves profitability.

• Gold’s current low-volatility phase, following its ascent to all-time highs, presents a strategic vol trading opportunity. This environment is characterized by steady gains and reduced expected downside.
• Recent market trends, including investor and institutional support levels, suggest that strategies designed to profit from time decay could be beneficial, noting the stability of physical flows, contained intraday volatility.
• While a short-term trading regime focused on range consolidation is indicated, potential risks from geopolitical shifts or unexpected central bank communications could quickly reprice gold’s volatility. 

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, Zijin Gold appears to be shining bright.
• On the placements front, it was a relatively quiter week, as compared to some of the more recent weekly flows.

• In a bold move signaling its intent to deepen its footprint in early-stage construction solutions, Commercial Metals Company has announced its plan to acquire Concrete Pipe & Precast (CP&P) for $675 million in cash.
• This acquisition comes at a pivotal time for CMC, which has been actively executing a strategy focused on higher-margin, lower-volatility segments, and expanding its exposure to infrastructure-heavy regions such as the U.S. South and Mid-Atlantic.
• CP&P, a supplier of precast concrete products, offers CMC the opportunity to integrate earlier into the construction value chain—a key element of its long-term growth strategy.

• Expansive Exploration Ventures in Northern Chile Southern Copper is currently engrossed in a meticulous ground study of its Especularita copper-gold project, located within the metallic-rich coastal belt of northern Chile.
• Spread across 19,076 hectares, the Especularita project encompasses both exploration and mining ventures, either granted or in the process of being so.
• The firm further boasts rights to potentially secure full ownership of the project.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
• I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
• In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
• KKR’s lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It’s not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
• Abu Dhabis’ ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• The Precious metals and miners are potentially having blow-off moves
• Strategic Metals and Minerals get another boost from the Trump  administration

• IPO leaves upside on the table: Priced at HK$71.6/sh (~US$24.1bn EV), Zijin Gold lists at ~8× 2026E EV/EBITDA — in line with peers despite offering far stronger growth.
• Fastest-Growing gold major challenger: Output set to rise ~20% CAGR to 2027E (2.1Moz), versus flat-to-low growth for Newmont, Barrick, and peers.
• Fair value HK$95/sh (+33%): Base case target on 2026E EBITDA at 8× peer multiple; risks include gold price volatility, execution of Wassa/Sepon/Raygorodok ramps, and governance overhangs.

• Iron ore fell as weakening Chinese economic activity, shrinking steel demand, and rising mill maintenance dampened production and demand outlook.
• Managed Money participants continue to increase their net long exposure, signalling renewed bullish sentiment and expectations of stronger demand and price gains.
• Bearish MACD crossover and Bollinger Bands pullback signal weakening momentum, highlighting growing selling pressure and short-term downside risk.

• Uno Minda, a legacy auto components player, is rapidly transforming its business mix by winning high-value orders in the EV and premium segments, significantly outperforming broader industry growth.
• A strategic pivot, fueled by capex, is set to elevate thecompany’s “kit value” per vehicle, diversify revenue streams, and strengthen its leadership in the dynamic auto market.
• With its strong order book and aggressive expansion into new technologies, Uno Minda is positioning itself for sustained, profitable growth, but its premium valuation requires a keen eye on execution.

• Jindal Steel International, part of the Naveen Jindal group, has offered over €2 billion (approx. INR 21,000 crore) to acquire thyssenkrupp Steel Europe, supporting its vital decarbonization projects.
• The deal strengthens Jindal’s position in Europe’s high-grade steel market, helps bypass EU carbon tariffs under CBAM, and secures access to the region’s key automotive supply chain.
• A high-stakes move, success depends on tackling EU regulations, integrating complex operations, and managing pension liabilities, while navigating subdued global steel demand.

• Even though tariffs disrupt Chinese competitiveness, U.S.-centric petrochemical companies face pressures from weak demand, low prices, and higher input costs.
• Olin has outperformed peers in a weak petrochemical cycle, supported by U.S.-centric sales, disciplined capital allocation, and investor flows, while Dow and Eastman struggled with tepid exports and margins.
• Tariffs boosted U.S. sales but hurt exports, and while the sector remains in a downcycle, Olin’s domestic focus and shareholder-friendly strategy have fueled a sharp stock rally.

• Their mission is to deliver up to 11 gigawatts on-demand power directly to the world’s most compute-intensive businesses with 1 GW of power projected to be online by 2026.
• A pair of hyperscalers have gone public and have been well-received by the market: CoreWeave (CRWV US) and Whitefiber (WYFI US).
• The company has no revenues and was formed in January meaning investors will have to exercise extreme patience with this developmental company. 

• NewMarket Corporation, long known for its dominance in petroleum additives, is quietly reshaping its future.
• On September 17, 2025, the company revealed it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Mars TopCo, the parent company of Calca Solutions—a hydrazine manufacturer based in Lake Charles, Louisiana.
• Hydrazine is a critical propellant used in space missions, making Calca a high-value asset in the mission-critical chemicals sector.

Key points (machine generated)

• Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) is an acquisition-focused oil and gas firm trading at 3.4x EBITDA with a 28% free cash flow yield and a 5% dividend yield.
• Formed in 2021 through the merger of Independence Energy LLC and Contango Oil & Gas, CRGY employs an ‘acquire-and-exploit’ strategy for growth.
• The company targets a 2x multiple of invested capital with payback periods of less than five years for acquisitions and three years for drilling, while managing cash flow prudently.

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• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
• Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
• Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

• Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing <1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.
• Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.
• Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).

• CSI 1000 represents the next 1000 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges after CSI 800. 
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• Currently, we see 100 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 1000 index.

• The global offering doc for Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is out.
• At the IPO Price of HK$71.59/share, Zijin Gold’s implied market cap is HK$187.9bn or US$24bn. Commencement of trading is the 29th September.
• Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold 86.7% in Zijin Gold post-IPO (before over-allotment).  Even if Zijin Gold trades north of HK$100/share, Zijin Mining is fully valued.

• Time for another Solar Photovoltaic module manufacturer to list undeterred by the tepid listing for Vikram Solar
• Largely a commoditised business with a potential technological threat. Solar PV companies in India continue to trade at exceptional valuations of 20-30 times trailing EBITDA
• Saatvik, despite being smaller in scale vs peers and in face of intensifying competition is being priced at 14-15 times our FY27E EBITDA (peers trade at 14-16x)

• Corteva Agriscience, the global agribusiness giant known for its seed and crop protection solutions, is reportedly evaluating a strategic breakup that would separate its seed and pesticide operations into two independent companies.
• The move, coming amid a record-setting first half of 2025 and growing investor interest in targeted agricultural technology, could mark a significant shift in how Corteva delivers value to shareholders.
• CEO Chuck Magro’s recent earnings call remarks emphasized that each division—Seeds and Crop Protection—has distinct growth platforms, cost structures, and operational drivers.

• Weather related disruption resulted in spike in prices
• Despite some restocking Tire makers remind cautious
• Market expects rebound in Chinese buying ahead of the September peak tire production period

• What you need to know: • Copper Fox reported new exploration results from its Mineral Mountain project, identifying targets consistent with a Laramide-age porphyry system, which expands the district’s scale and potential.
• • A maiden drill program is set to begin in October on a large porphyry target 1.5km north of the newly identified target.
• • Copper Fox also completed the Project Execution Plan for the Van Dyke PFS, with a decision on advancement expected in October.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise US$3.2bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
• It s a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

• California Resources Corporation demonstrated notable performance in the second quarter of 2025, highlighting both operational successes and strategic advancements.
• The company achieved record shareholder returns, amounting to nearly $290 million, significantly more than the free cash flow of the period.
• This was predominantly due to a strategic share repurchase from ICA that facilitated an orderly reduction in ownership.

• Malaysia imports tires worth US$816 mn a year; China pitches US$318 mn  
• Goodyear, Continental plant closures highlight Chinese competition  
• Recycling innovations aim to capture value and boost sustainability  

• Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.
• China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.
• Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.

• Styrenix, after returning to promoter control, is stepping up capacity expansion and riding demand tailwinds from ABS, SAN, PS driven by white goods, automotive, and packaging. 
• India’s demand for styrene‐based polymers is accelerating (styrene demand projected 15% growth in FY2025-26) and government policy (Atmanirbhar, petchem investment) is increasingly favorable.
• Styrenix offers a strong lever to India’s structural growth in engineering plastics, but valuation must account for margin cyclicity, FX exposure, and capex risk.

• Broadwood Partners opposes Alcon’s $28/share offer for STAAR, citing opportunistic timing and a flawed sale process.
• Alcon seeks STAAR to fill a portfolio gap in phakic intraocular lenses, potentially enhancing US market penetration.
• STAAR’s China sales decline attributed to inventory issues, with management predicting recovery by H2 2025.

• The crude oil market in September 2025 in a state of short-term equilibrium, where forecasts of oversupply are being counterbalanced by immediate and significant geopolitical disruptions to Russian oil supplies.
• Escalating geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing risk of expanded sanctions and persistent conflicts in the Middle East, are collectively driving current price increases, offsetting the longer-term bearish outlook.
• This range-bound market scenario, characterized by conflicting factors influencing prices, suggests that strategies focused on profiting from stable prices are more favorable than those based on strong directional trends.

Financially, Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) FY25 results were characterised by record second half output, record EPS and a record (proposed) dividend. Operationally, they were characterised by a full half-year contribution from MTR/Mogale and maiden production from Tennant’s Nobles in Australia, both ahead of time and below budget. If the contract liability relating to PAF’s MTR/Mogale construction financing facility (effectively a synthetic forward sale) is adjusted out of revenue and into ‘other expenses’ and excluded owing to its exceptional nature, then normalised headline earnings per share (HEPS) were 7.0% ahead of our forecast, at 8.73c/share (see Exhibit 2), while the company’s dividend was increased by more than 50% to 2.10c/share. With the price of gold remaining high, we have upgraded our FY26 normalised HEPS forecast by 11.3%, to 13.21c/share. Note that, if it remains high for the full year, then our forecast (below) increases by a further 51.2%, to 19.98c/share. Simultaneously, PAF is seeking promotion for its listing from AIM to London’s Main Market.

Financially, Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) FY25 results were characterised by record second half output, record EPS and a record (proposed) dividend. Operationally, they were characterised by a full half-year contribution from MTR/Mogale and maiden production from Tennant’s Nobles in Australia, both ahead of time and below budget. If the contract liability relating to PAF’s MTR/Mogale construction financing facility (effectively a synthetic forward sale) is adjusted out of revenue and into ‘other expenses’ and excluded owing to its exceptional nature, then normalised headline earnings per share (HEPS) were 7.0% ahead of our forecast, at 8.73c/share (see Exhibit 2), while the company’s dividend was increased by more than 50% to 2.10c/share. With the price of gold remaining high, we have upgraded our FY26 normalised HEPS forecast by 11.3%, to 13.21c/share. Note that, if it remains high for the full year, then our forecast (below) increases by a further 51.2%, to 19.98c/share. Simultaneously, PAF is seeking promotion for its listing from AIM to London’s Main Market.

• Nicola received six five-year mining lease extensions for its ~10,800ha New Craigmont Property.
• This significantly de-risks the project if exploration is successful in discovering a copper porphyry system.
• New Craigmont is a key asset for NIM, combining historic high-grade copper production and ongoing copper porphyry exploration.

• On September 3, 2025, Smackover Lithium, a JV between Standard Lithium (55%, operator) and Equinor (45%), announced positive results from the DFS for the South West Arkansas project.
• The project targets initial production capacity of 22,500 tons per year of battery-quality lithium carbonate at the Reynolds brine unit over a 20-year operating life.
• The unit is located in Columbia and Lafayette counties, Arkansas.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Melco Resorts
• UST yields declined slightly, on account of a strong auction of 20Y notes. The UST curve bull-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 3 bps to 3.50%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 1 bp at 4.03%.
• The rally in equities halted ahead of the FOMC rate decision later today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declined 0.1% each to 6,607 and 22,334, respectively.

• In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
• A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold’s PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
• However, Zijin Gold’s earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin’s Mining’s current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will look at the firm’s valuation.

• The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a “pure gold business” to the market. Such “asset revaluation” can unlock the hidden value of gold business.
• For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.
• Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.

• China’s refined copper output is projected to contract 4–5% this month—the first seasonal decline since 2016—driven by smelter inefficiencies and concentrate shortages.
• Exchange inventories show divergence: LME and SHFE stocks are falling while CME stocks rise, amplifying regional supply tightness and premium volatility.
• CME Copper futures show strengthening bullish momentum, with RSI above 50 and MACD nearing a bullish crossover, signaling improving market sentiment.

• On 16 September, it was reported in the local media that SK Innovation’s subsidiary SK Geo Centric plans to sell its entire 35% stake in the Sinopec-SK Petrochem JV.
• The transaction is expected to be priced closed to its book value of about 819 billion won. Sinopec is a leading potential buyer. 
• From 2020 to 2024, SK Geo Centric generated cumulative operating profit of 695 billion won, accounting for 12.7% of SK Innovation’s cumulative operating profit in this period. 

• Buy Case: ~20% CAGR growth to 2027E, SOE backing, and potential index inclusion make Zijin the fastest-growing gold producer globally.
• Sell Case: At $40bn, Zijin trades at major-level multiples with mid-tier reserve depth, raising questions on sustainability.
• Swing Factor: Gold price trajectory and flawless execution in Ghana, Laos, and Kazakhstan will determine if the IPO clears closer to the low or high end of the range.

• Funding not a hurdle: Promoter strength provides comfort despite past negative precedents.
• Valuation undemanding: Entry at ~US$440–475/t is below replacement cost and past cycle-peak deals.
• Execution heavy: Success depends on managing restructuring, integration, and EU policy commitments.

• JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday.
• GLN will enter the Top 40, with APN falling out (projections sent out on 26 Aug, confirmed by the JSE on Wednesday 3 Sep).
• There is quite a bit on the go on the economic calendar this week – FOMC on Wednesday evening, BOE and SARB on Thursday. 

• Global uranium demand is escalating quickly as China doubles its nuclear power plants by 2030 and the U.S. increases its inventory for its energy independence and growing energy needs.
• CGN Mining (1164 HK) is China’s largest uranium trading company, with partnerships with the Kazakhstan government in some of the largest uranium mines in the world.
• CGN secured an off-take contract with China General Nuclear Power Group at prices that are 50% higher than previous contract.  Approximately 60% of CGN’s revenue is from EU and U.S.

• H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.
• Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).
• On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with >10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.