Event-Driven

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew” continues. Enormous swings in H/A ratios in high AH premia names, materials, and non-bank finance.
Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) fell 2.9% on the week, 2.2% from Monday close to Friday. AH premium fell a tick.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes over US$19+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying OK at just under +US$1bn/day. Significantly, there was huge net buying of ETFs.
Last week’s reco Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 4.4% on the week, +3.1% from Monday’s close to Friday. +3.9% gain on the H/A pair.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

[Japan M&A] NTT Docomo and Dentsu Squeeze Out Minorities in Carta (3688 JP) Cheap. Tender Starts Now

On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
The price for minorities is OK, not great. The Board talks up synergies not included in fair value considerations, and Dentsu+Docomo are actually buying it 15% cheaper.
That comes out to a net price below the bottom end of the DCF range. Aaargh. But Dentsu+irrevocables+ large individuals likely gets this over the line cleanly.

Edelweiss Financial (EDEL IN): Attractive Valuations with Value Unlocking on the Anvil

By Himanshu Dugar

Edelweiss is a financial services platform offering asset management, lending, and insurance. It has restructured its corporate model in recent years, shifting from a diversified conglomerate to operating standalone businesses.
The proposed IPO of the alternate-assets business and stake sale in MF business creates an event-driven opportunity. Group is out of liquidity issues now with legacy ARC assets resolved.
Stock corrected 20% in the last month after SEBI returned the IPO application. We note that the reason was just reporting changes and company is on track for 2026 IPO.

Gold Road (GOR AU): 22th September Vote On Gold Fields’ Offer

After rejecting an approach on the 24th March, on the 5th May, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)entered into a Scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ) after terms were bumped.
GFI offered $2.52/share, cash, plus a variable cash component of ~A$0.88 (now worth ~A$0.77/share) via GOR’s indirect stake in Northern Star Resources (NST AU). This includes any fully franked dividend.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 22nd September. The IE (Deloitte) says fair & reasonable. It is.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it’s not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire’s B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.
Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

By Special Situation Investments

The Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) IE considers Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR’s NST stake.
The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%.

Strategic Developments: LWAY’s Strong Q2, RTAC’s Decline, WOW Buyout, and Samsonite’s Dual Listing Plans

Lifeway Foods’ Q2 results show 10% sales growth and 18% volume increase, enhancing leverage in Danone negotiations.
Renatus Tactical Acquisition’s stock declined by 6% amid speculation on crypto treasury strategy, maintaining attractive risk-reward profile.
WideOpenWest buyout concluded at $5.2/share, offering 65% premium to recent levels, despite undervaluation concerns.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Ashimori, Carenet, Rezil, HKBN, Toyo Cons., Shibaura Elect.

I tally 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Rezil (176A JP), and Carenet Inc (2150 JP).
Key updates/news took place on HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), and Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting
Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?
Playing Korea’s Hot Secondary Battery Sector Rotation
Dentium – Cancellation of 2.44 Million Treasury Shares (22% of Outstanding Shares)

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting

In Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?, I concluded Shengjing Bank (2066 HK) was one bank I would avoid. It’s now suspended pursuant to the Takeovers code.
Shengjing Bank had one of the largest P/B and net income declines in recent years. It had borderline allowance/provision coverage. It also had the lowest net interest margin.
Shengjing Bank is PRC-incorporated, therefore any delisting proposal would involve a Merger by Absorption, incorporating a Scheme-like vote. And probably a tendering condition.

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?

Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the publication of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.”
It is likely that the SASAC of Shenyang Municipal People’s Government, the largest shareholder, is seeking to privatise Shengjing.
Precedents point to a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal. My estimated offer price range is HK$2.00-HK$2.80, a 75.4%-145% premium to the last close.

Playing Korea’s Hot Secondary Battery Sector Rotation

Battery-Sector rotation is heating up in Korea as active ETFs sharply boost LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI, signaling renewed sector focus amid ESS growth and easing valuation pressures.
Watch for supply-demand dislocations during battery-sector ETF rebalances; top-heavy names may see concentrated flows, amplifying trading intensity and driving larger-than-normal price swings.
The 25% cap reversion could move LG Energy Solution down and SK Innovation up ~5pp, with flows hitting -0.2x/+0.6x DTV, potentially amplified by aggressive sector inflows.

Dentium – Cancellation of 2.44 Million Treasury Shares (22% of Outstanding Shares)

Dentium announced that it has decided to cancel all of its 2.44 million treasury shares (22% of its outstanding shares).
This is massive and should have a positive impact on Dentium’s share price.
Although the company reported a disappointing results in 2Q 2025 and its exports to China are slowing down, the company still generates healthy operating margins (18.9% in 2Q 2025).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 15

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout
Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA
[Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?
HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment
StubWorld: Stay Long Sun Corp (6736 JP)
HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Changes Tack and Matches Yageo’s JPY6,200 Offer
Rezil (176A JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

[Japan M&A] Minebea Matches YAGEO for Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥6,200. Presses on Early Cashout

After three months of NOT matching YAGEO’s bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥6,w00 as YAGEO’s proposal continues its long plod through FEFTA review, Minebea-Mitsumi has now matched ¥6,200.
Key is that their bid closes before the indicative deadline for YAGEO to receive word on FEFTA approval. They are hoping this bid mollifies the irrevocables and everyone else.
But if YAGEO cares, it could bump to ¥6,300 tomorrow and extend its tender offer which closes on Monday. But the put option is now struck higher, which de-risks this.

Value Unlock SG: Value Creation Via Corporate Action. May the Wind Carry Many More Sails

By Devi Subhakesan

A wave of corporate actions by SGX-listed companies has unlocked substantial shareholder value and re-rated select stocks in recent months. In this note, we spotlight five standout cases.
Our top picks with the strongest catalysts for further upside after delivering significant shareholder returns over the past year are – Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Yangzijiang Financial (YZJFH SP).
The outsized value creation delivered by these companies should serve as a wake-up call for other managements to follow suit and initiate actions to boost returns and unlock shareholder value.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA

On the 12th August, Kangji Medical (9997 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.
I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today.

[Japan M&A] Founder, KEPCO, Try ¥2,750 Bain-Led MBO on Rezil (176A). Light Given Growth – Bumpity?

To my knowledge, this may be the first Tender Offer takeout proposal on a “new ticker.” Rezil (176A JP) was listed just 16mos ago.
This takeout is done on a highish-growth stock at 11.7x 1yr forward EV/EBITDA. It’s not expensive, but they have ~60%. BUT… there’s another Potential Player who may have Big Thoughts.
Slightly long-dated, small-cap, likely to be illiquid. Watch how it trades early for hints.

HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.
Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.
The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.

StubWorld: Stay Long Sun Corp (6736 JP)

Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But not as cheap to 44.3%-held Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) as it was recently. Opt for a net long trade here.
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp – and JG Summit Holdings (JGS PM) / Universal Robina (URC PM) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

HMM: Tender Offer of 8% of Outstanding Shares and Cancellation

After the market close on 14 August, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced a tender offer of 81.8 million treasury shares (8% of outstanding shares).
An even bigger factor on HMM’s share price than this tender offer could be the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on the company.
Overall, we would be cautious on HMM over the next one year. HMM also reported worse than expected operating profit in 2Q 2025 due to weaker global shipping rates.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Changes Tack and Matches Yageo’s JPY6,200 Offer

Despite its previous protestations, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has unexpectedly matched Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY6,200 offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Minebea’s actions suggest that Yageo has a good chance of securing regulatory approval. Otherwise, Minebea could have kept its offer unchanged and patiently waited for the Yageo offer to fail.
Given the significant sunk costs, Yageo is likely to bump. Without increasing its offer, shareholders will have a greater inclination to tender and help Minebea meet its minimum tendering condition.

Rezil (176A JP): Bain’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Rezil (176A JP) has recommended a tender offer from Bain Capital at JPY2,750, a 57.1% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,750.
The offer is attractive as it aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range, represents an all-time high and is 129.2% above the IPO price of JPY1,200.
This is a done deal as Hikari Tsushin, a cross-holder, tendering is sufficient to meet the minimum tendering condition. At the last close, the gross spread was 6.8%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sun Corp (6736) – CLBT Has Round-Tripped and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Sun Corp (6736) – CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better
Current Samsung Biologics Split Dynamics with Alpha Potential Both Ways
Tyro Payment (TYR AU) Fielding Offers. Again.
[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) MBO-Ish LBO of Medical Platform Biz; Light. SUPER Opaque Process.
CareNet (2150 JP): EQT’s Tender Offer at JPY1,130
Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis

Sun Corp (6736) – CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better

12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.
The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.
Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm…

Current Samsung Biologics Split Dynamics with Alpha Potential Both Ways

One of the hottest local plays is gauging KRX and FSS leanings on Biologics split, which could drive short-term alpha across the three Samsung names alongside battery and HBM flows.
Short-Term focus is KRX pre-listing review and FSS registration window. Once approval and lock-up kick in, Biologics and Samsung Electronics could outperform Samsung C&T.
From a risk-hedge angle, this is a long-short alpha setup: if the split fails, Samsung C&T likely takes the hit, offering alpha potential both ways.

Tyro Payment (TYR AU) Fielding Offers. Again.

Back in January 2023, point-of-sale payments play Tyro (TYR AU) provided Potentia with due diligence to “enable Potentia to develop a significantly improved proposal“. Potentia walked away from talks in May.
Then crickets. Yesterday (12th August), Tyro’s shares gained 10.6%. After announcing this morning it has received unsolicited NBIOs, shares gained a further 8.6% (as I type), touching a 17-month high.
At A$1.17/share, Tyro is ~27% adrift of Potentia’s last confirmed indicative Offer.

[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) MBO-Ish LBO of Medical Platform Biz; Light. SUPER Opaque Process.

Todfay after the close, EQT and Carenet Inc (2150 JP) announced an EQT SPC would launch a TOB to buy out the medical platform business.
A growthy business so the multiple looks light. But the founder and his incubation fund is selling. That’s 19%. Insiders/crossholders hold another 25%. One recent seller still has 10%.
This looks like it gets done, but it isn’t at the highs of 4+ years ago. Some retail may be upset.

CareNet (2150 JP): EQT’s Tender Offer at JPY1,130

Carenet Inc (2150 JP) has recommended a tender offer from EQT (EQT SS) at JPY1,130, a 47.3% premium to the last close.
Despite the lack of an auction, the offer is reasonable as it aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and at a premium to historical ranges.
Irrevocables to accept represent a 17.03% ownership ratio. This is likely a done deal with payment from 7 October.

Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

With Esseco gone, Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid is the last one standing — but CNMC Phase II remedies and 27% minority opposition keep the deal far from a done reaction.
Our €4.40/share control value could tip the Board toward acceptance, closing the 75% threshold gap and delivering IRRs that make the deal chemistry far more attractive to arb capital.
Regulatory timing points to a late-Oct to early-Dec settlement window; remedy talks could delay. IRR skew remains compelling if Bondalti sweetens, but downside risk sits at the €2.56 break.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 13

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Stealthy Long-Short Flow Playing Out Via Local KOSPI 200 Covered Call ETFs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Stealthy Long-Short Flow Playing Out Via Local KOSPI 200 Covered Call ETFs
StubWorld: Swire Pac’s NAV Discount Widens. Bs Outperform As
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Consortium’s Light Preconditional Scheme Offer
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): TPG/QIA/Founder’s Offer Is No Knockout
LS Corp: Treasury Share Cancellation of 171 Billion Won
Prosus–JET Arbitrage: EC Clearance Granted, Minimal Spread Remains

Stealthy Long-Short Flow Playing Out Via Local KOSPI 200 Covered Call ETFs

Covered call ETFs ramped up KOSPI 200 weekly call selling, pushing premiums unusually low despite modest overall volume—likely a key driver behind the premium compression.
KOSPI 100 outperformed KOSPI 200 small-mid caps by 3.7%p last month, probably boosted by call-selling ETFs’ delta-hedge buying concentrated in large caps.
Watch for hedge buy flows ramping up before big events. Timing short-term longs in large caps and shorts in smaller KOSPI 200 names around these windows can yield solid alpha.

StubWorld: Swire Pac’s NAV Discount Widens. Bs Outperform As

As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire’s B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.
Preceding my comments on Pac, Swire Properties (1972 HK) & Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Consortium’s Light Preconditional Scheme Offer

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK) disclosed a preconditional privatisation from a consortium at HK$9.25, a 9.9% premium to last close and a 21.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The key condition will be approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection). The offer is final.
The scheme vote risk is medium-to-high due to an unattractive offer, a blocking stake below the substantial disclosure threshold, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): TPG/QIA/Founder’s Offer Is No Knockout

Medical device play Kangji Medical (9997 HK) has announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and the Qatar Investment Authority, together with founders.
The consortium is offering HK$9.25/share, a less-than-inspiring 9.9% premium to last close. The price has been declared final. It is 33.4% below the HK$13.88 2020 IPO price.
Independent shareholders hold 25.25% of shares out. They could bare teeth; and they’ve been somewhat active at AGMs. But on balance, there’s probably enough here for this to get up.

LS Corp: Treasury Share Cancellation of 171 Billion Won

On 12 August, LS Corp (006260 KS) announced that it will cancel 1 million treasury shares (171 billion won), representing 3.1% of its outstanding shares.
This is significant, especially because the company has not cancelled any shares in the past five years. This move signals the company’s willingness to provide greater returns to its shareholders.
LS plans to increase its dividend by at least 5% annually, to reach dividend payout of at least 30% by 2030.

Prosus–JET Arbitrage: EC Clearance Granted, Minimal Spread Remains

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The EC’s conditional clearance removes the final regulatory risk for Prosus’s €20.30/share JET acquisition, leaving only procedural steps. Current 0.69% spread reflects a near-99% implied probability of deal completion.
Structural remedies (Delivery Hero stake cut, governance exit, voting restrictions) ensure JET and Delivery Hero remain independent competitors. An independent trustee will oversee compliance under the European Commission’s binding commitments.
Early entrants capture ~9.6% annualized return; late entrants ~4.0%. Post-clearance, the market shows minimal mispricing, making the trade appealing only for short-term, low-volatility capital deployment strategies.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 12

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup
Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades
[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book
Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price
A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues
Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH
Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush
NLOP Update; Liquidation on Track

Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup

Hunting the reversion point for Square-Hynix price ratio amid local buzz: need clear pro-business tax signals and Hynix’s downtrend to continue despite today’s bounce.
Tax tweak likely turns neutral despite gov’s cautious tone today. Hynix’s bounce faces headwinds from supply ramp and yield issues, so fresh rally odds remain slim.
Focus on hunting SK Square vs. Hynix price ratio reversion, pairing it with Samsung Long/Hynix Short for a strong short-term trade setup to ride the trend.

Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades

KCMC 2025 will likely reveal fresh, unpriced stimulus details, potentially sparking a price rally like last year’s 2% KOSPI 200 jump on the value-up ETF rollout.
The key wildcard at KCMC 2025 is dividends—shifting from Yoon’s Japan-style ROE grind to a Taiwan-style push for bigger shareholder payouts.
With Sept 29 approaching, dividend policy buzz may drive price moves—smart to prep dividend momentum trades to front-run this catalyst.

[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is buying out its own equity affiliate Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at a near-all-time high price of ¥4,140/share.
It’s not a great price, but it is just over 1x book after writedowns this past quarter. It basically requires cross-holders and half a retail to tender.
But this autoparts business is a strong grower, and has no EV risk. And its non-autoparts business is more interesting. The “fair” multiples are low. But it’ll get done.

Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.
KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.
The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

AH premia down, bouncing back. “Beautiful Skew” continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile – often the sign of significant distribution changes.
The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer

Kolon Corp (002020 KS)(KC) is seeking to delist 75.23%-held Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS) (KM), an auto importer.
Via a dual approach, KC is offering ₩4,000 per KM common share and ₩5,950 per KM preferred share. Any untendered shares will be swapped into KC shares.
The tender offer period is from 8th August to 8th September, with payment on the 10th September. There is no minimum acceptance condition.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.
Last week’s reco was Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

On 7 August, Bloomberg reported that Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP) is considering going private and has received acquisition proposals from several investment funds.
Privatisation is a neat solution for the Board to get rid of a potentially problematic activist shareholder, Yukihiro Nomura, the son-in-law of Yoshiaki Murakami.
PE interest is underpinned by Yomeishu’s net cash and significant real estate assets. However, the shares are up 63% YTD, which leaves little room for additional upside. Take profits.

SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context:SoftBank’s (9984 JP) Q1 results on 7 August delivered a return to profitability and earnings beat, fueling one of the stock’s biggest post-results rallies in 15 years.
Highlight: Shares jumped 10.4% on 8 August and nearly 20% week-on-week, with implied volatility staying elevated above 40% despite the surge.
Why Read: Review price action and options market response, showing how SoftBank’s post-earnings volatility pattern echoes past announcements. Serves as a documented reference for the next earnings event.

NLOP Update; Liquidation on Track

By Richard Howe

NLOP just declared a $3.10 special dividend, funded by cash from asset sales.
The company has zero recourse debt, $78M cash, and continues to sell properties well above the market’s implied valuation.
In Q2, NLOP sold a vacant building for $81/sf and a JPMorgan-leased asset for $143/sf at a 12.1% cap rate.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 11

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends
Merger Arb Mondays (11 Aug) – Mayne, PointsBet, Infomedia, Ashimori, Toyo Const, HKBN, Joy City
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Aug25), Changes to Code of Corporate Conduct
SSI Weekly Newsletter: Key Updates on Mergers, Legal Disputes, Asset Sales, and Shareholder Votes
Weekly Deals Digest (10 Aug) – Shibaura, Toyo Construction, Technopro, Ashimori, HKBN, Iress
Weekly Update (LION, MAGN, NLOP, SONY)

[Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends

In March 2022, Infroneer bid ¥770. The Board said “too low” but then accepted. A month later, YFO offered ¥1,000. Too high, bad owner, not accepted.
Summer 2023 after a year of palm to the face for YFO, the Board was partly spilled. YFO bid ¥1,255/share and the Board said the premium was too low.
Now, the Board has accepted a bid from Taisei at a roughly similar premium. But the price is ¥1,850/share. Infroneer and YFO have agreed to sell. Minorities win… -ish

Merger Arb Mondays (11 Aug) – Mayne, PointsBet, Infomedia, Ashimori, Toyo Const, HKBN, Joy City

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Ci Medical (3540 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP).

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Aug25), Changes to Code of Corporate Conduct

By Special Situation Investments

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
783 new CGRs filed in July 2025 (after 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 9 July. The parent-sub changes are slow to come.

SSI Weekly Newsletter: Key Updates on Mergers, Legal Disputes, Asset Sales, and Shareholder Votes

Mayne Pharma faces legal challenges with Cosette over merger termination, maintaining no breach occurred; hearing set for September 9.
OCI N.V. plans $700m shareholder return via capital repayment and extraordinary dividend, with ex-dividend date on August 18.
Banxa’s acquisition vote set for August 28, with regulatory approvals pending; spread narrows from 38% to 25%.

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Aug) – Shibaura, Toyo Construction, Technopro, Ashimori, HKBN, Iress

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: I have not covered anything notable this week.
Event-Driven developments:Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Technopro Holdings (6028 JP), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Iress Ltd (IRE AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU).

Weekly Update (LION, MAGN, NLOP, SONY)

By Richard Howe

Sony Group Corporation (SONY) is planning to partially spin off its financial services division, Sony Financial Group Inc. (SFGI), in what would be Japan’s first major spin‑off with a direct listing in over two decades.
The company will divest 80% of its stake while retaining the remaining 20%, and the spin‑off is scheduled for September 29, 2025.
This looks interesting to me as I see potential for indiscriminate selling. Sony Financial Service Group contributes ~13% of Company Net Income (¥1,067.4B).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 10

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Taisei (1801 JP)’s Bittersweet Tender Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Taisei (1801 JP)’s Bittersweet Tender Offer
HKBN (1310 HK): Response Doc Out. IFA Says Fair
Korea Local Banks: New Dividend Tax Effectively Locks in a De Facto Minimum Yield Play
Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Technopro, Infomedia, Kolon Mobility, Iress, HKBN, Furukawa Battery
S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut
Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY4,140

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Taisei (1801 JP)’s Bittersweet Tender Offer

Toyo Construction (1890 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Taisei Corp (1801 JP) at JPY1,750, a 6.4% premium to the last close of JPY1,644.
Unusually, Taisei has set the lower limit of the tender plus irrevocables at a 55.43% ownership ratio, below the two-thirds EGM share consolidation vote threshold.
Despite the low premium, this is a done deal due to irrevocables from the two previous competing bidders (INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP), YFO), who are also the two largest shareholders.

HKBN (1310 HK): Response Doc Out. IFA Says Fair

After a protracted period towards securing the necessary regulatory approvals, this transaction has since accelerated.
Just two days after the Offer Doc was issued, the Response Doc has now been dispatched.
The IFA (Somerley) says China Mobile (941 HK)‘s terms are fair & reasonable. The First Close is the 3rd September. Expect the Offer to turn unconditional before that date.

Korea Local Banks: New Dividend Tax Effectively Locks in a De Facto Minimum Yield Play

We’ve got a locked-in floor on ’26 DPS and clear upside, providing a solid dividend yield baseline—ideal for leaning into aggressive trade setups.
We can lean into spot longs with covered calls, but yields (especially KB, Shinhan) aren’t yet compelling. A pullback before the ’26 dividend run is a prime entry window.
Plus, a bank long-short: long KB/Shinhan, short Hana/Woori. KB and Shinhan face payout increases, with ’26 guidance in 4Q25 earnings as the catalyst.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, Soul Patts (SOL AU) & Brickworks (BKW AU)‘s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.
Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it’ll get done.
For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why PCCW Ltd (8 HK) would/should trade at a NAV premium.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Technopro, Infomedia, Kolon Mobility, Iress, HKBN, Furukawa Battery

I tally 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU),Ci Medical (3540 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Technopro Holdings (6028 JP), and Kolon Mobility (450140 KS).
Key updates/news took place on Iress Ltd (IRE AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Furukawa Battery (6937 JP).

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut

By Gaudenz Schneider

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.
Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty.

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY4,140

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) at JPY4,140, a 43.8% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive as it represents a ten-year high, implies a P/B of 1.00x and above the mid-point of the target IFA DCF valuation range.
Despite the lack of irrevocables, the shareholder register facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 12 August to 24 September, with payment from 30 September.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 09

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Iress (IRE AU): Nothing Firm As Blackstone And Thoma Bravo Circle and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Iress (IRE AU): Nothing Firm As Blackstone And Thoma Bravo Circle
PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps and Declares Offer Unconditional
PointsBet (PBH AU): Call It a Day as Mixi Shows Its Hand

Iress (IRE AU): Nothing Firm As Blackstone And Thoma Bravo Circle

Back in 2021, Swedish PE outfit EQT and Iress Ltd (IRE AU) were unable to firm a transaction. This was discussed in Iress (IRE AU) Accepts EQT’s Latest Proposal.
EQT was granted due diligence after bumping indictive terms to $15.91/share, up from an initial pitch of A$14.80/share. Its been crickets since EQT walked.
Now Blackstone has approached Iress, a trading and wealth management software provider. An indicative A$10.50/share cash Offer was tabled, but since withdrawn. Negotiations with Blackstone and Thoma Bravo are ongoing.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps and Declares Offer Unconditional

After betr Entertainment (BBT AU) bumped scrip terms for PointsBet (PBH AU), a logical course of action for Mixi (2121 JP) was to declare its Offer unconditional.
Now Mixi has bumped terms to A$1.25/share, from A$1.20/share; and declared its Offer unconditional. FIRB gave its nod on the 5th August.
Mixi has 28.2% of shares out, including 1.93% in the acceptance facility. “MIXI reserves the right to increase the offer price if it acquires more than 50% of PointsBet shares“.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Call It a Day as Mixi Shows Its Hand

Mixi Inc (2121 JP) has bumped its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer from 4.2% from A$1.20 to A$1.25 per share. The offer has been declared unconditional and “best and final”.
BETR Entertainment (BBT AU)’s offer remains 2.9% above Mixi’s revised offer, with limited options for a response. The priority is to open its offer by assuaging the Takeover Panel.
The shares are trading 1.2% above Mixi’s offer due to the optionality of a bump if Mixi attains a controlling stake. With little upside remaining, head for the exit.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…
Iress (IRE AU): Blackstone Mulling a Privatisation Bid
StubWorld: PCCW’s Tenacious NAV Premium
[Japan M&A] Air Water Takes over C.I. Medical (3540) – Done Deal, Not Bad
Soul Patts/Brickworks: 10th September Vote To Collapse Circularity
Tender Offer and Delisting of Kolon Mobility Group by Kolon Corp
CI Medical (3540 JP): Air Water (4088 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…

54 weeks ago Advantage Partners and Furukawa Electric announced a deal to take Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) sub Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) private. The acquisition price was LOW.
Minorities got more – more than book. But the deal included a payment delay allowing BVPS to rise 8.8% from the announcement date. No synergies.
Furukawa Electric gets to buy back in at a price below book. And because there are cash and securities and lots of net receivables, the operating assets are well below.

Iress (IRE AU): Blackstone Mulling a Privatisation Bid

The AFR reports that Blackstone (BX US) is considering a privatisation bid which could value Iress Ltd (IRE AU) at about A$1.9 billion (more than A$10 per share).
Iress is no stranger to privatisation interest. In 2021, EQT (EQT SS) bid against itself thrice to offer A$15.91, before failing to table a binding proposal.
The shareholder structure facilitates an offer. The rumoured offer is a good starting point, but it is far from a knockout bid.

StubWorld: PCCW’s Tenacious NAV Premium

Despite the recent pullback, PCCW Ltd (8 HK) continues to trade at an unjustifiable premium to NAV.
Preceding my comments on PCCW/ HKT Ltd (6823 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

[Japan M&A] Air Water Takes over C.I. Medical (3540) – Done Deal, Not Bad

Today, Air Water Inc (4088 JP) and Ci Medical (3540 JP) announced that the CEO and Air Water who together own 85% would be taking over the company.
That’s nice. That means it’s a done deal and nobody can do anything about it. Complain all you want, it’s done.
Helpfully, the Board did its job (as did Shimizu-san – he’s selling most of his stake). This is not badly-priced for an ultimately coercive deal.

Soul Patts/Brickworks: 10th September Vote To Collapse Circularity

Back on the 2 June 2025, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) and 42.92%-held Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) announced that, via inter-conditional Schemes, they would merge.
TopCo, a new ASX-listed company, will acquire all of the shares in SOL and BKW via the issuance of TopCo shares: 1:1 for SOL and 0.82:1 for BKW.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with Scheme Meetings on the 10th September, and expected implementation on or before the 23 September. The IE Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

Tender Offer and Delisting of Kolon Mobility Group by Kolon Corp

Kolon Corp (002020 KS) announced that it is conducting a tender offer and delisting of Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS).
The tender offer prices are 4,000 won per common share (20.3% higher than current price) and 5,950 won per preferred share (25.3% higher than current price) for Kolon Mobility Group.
The tender offer prices and stock swap ratios are especially attractive for Kolon Mobility Group shareholders.

CI Medical (3540 JP): Air Water (4088 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal