Event-Driven

AH premia down again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

[Japan M&A] – KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.
In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.
The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 July 2025); Multi-Month High Volumes, Net Buying of Financials

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Best in months. Net buying strong at +US$800mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, Non-bank FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Tech-y CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY was sold. SOEs stand out on the sell side. Again.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.
Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)‘s stock price has dropped following the announcement of NSDL‘s IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.

ProSiebenSat.1: MFE Raises Offer, Reducing Arbitrage Upside and Shifting Risk Profile

MFE raised its offer to €7.88 implied, tightening the spread to just +1.15%; new long entries now face skewed downside risk without a second bump or strategic surprise.
Legacy holders from €5.80–7.00 have captured meaningful gains; with the August 13 deadline approaching, using MFE-A hedges or call structures preserves upside while limiting exposure.
MFE-A borrow remains accessible (~0.75%), making short hedges viable; paired with call options, this offers capital-efficient exposure to upside while mitigating equity volatility in a tight spread setup.

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): 29th August Vote On Novomatic’s “Low-Balled Offer”

Back on the 28th April 2025, Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, entered into a Scheme with Austria’s Novomatic, Ainsworth’s largest shareholder (52.9%).
Novomatic offered A$1.00/share (best & final) – including a permitted dividend – a 35% premium to last close; yet 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. The IE says fair & reasonable. They are probably tight.

Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome

By Special Situation Investments

KKR’s firm cash bid of 50.24p offers a modest +0.56% premium to Assura’s current price, anchoring downside risk in this live UK REIT takeover contest.
PHP’s offer implies upside only if its share price rebounds; spread turns positive beyond 98p, with optionality up to +7.4% if PHP retests its six-month high.
Limited arbitrage remains, but a final round auction or revised bid could unlock renewed spread capture; monitor deal calendar ahead of the 12 August offer deadline.

SSI Newsletter: PMVP Trial Catalyst, YORKU Trading Split, CPPTL Extension, GLXZ Merger, LUNA Updates

PMV Pharmaceuticals is in a Phase 2 trial for cancer therapy, with interim results expected mid-2025, and potential value realization through strategic review due to a large net cash position.
Yorkville Acquisition has commenced separate trading of its Class A ordinary shares and warrants, with a $10/share trust value.
Copper Property CTL Trust extended its wind-down deadline to January 2026, with amendments allowing confidential shareholder consultations during the sale process.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play
Merger Arb Mondays (28 Jul) – Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Mayne, Santos, ENN, Smart Share
[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) MBO Officially Being Done Dirt Cheap
Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk
Ainsworth (AGI AU): A Dicey Scheme Vote Underwritten by an Alternative Takeover Offer
Weekly Update (AAF, NLOP, KHC)

Korean Policy Tailwinds: Preferred Shares Rerating Play

Most expect prefs to be in policy crosshairs soon—watch for tighter rules on dividends, discounts, and liquidity, plus likely incentives for redemption or cancellation ahead of commons.
If Korea rolls out a pref stock overhaul, long-biased rerate plays could pop—focus on liquid, high-yield large-cap prefs trading at 35%+, yield north of 3%, and solid daily turnover.
Korea Inv, Kumho Petro, CJ Cheil, CJ Corp prefs already screen well; Doosan and Hanwha 3PB could join if dividend hikes materialize on back of strong sub earnings.

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Jul) – Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Mayne, Santos, ENN, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Nippon Concept (9386 JP).

[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) MBO Officially Being Done Dirt Cheap

The MBO for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) starts with the father+son Chairman and CEO, – combined stake 2.92% – putting nothing in to buy this, with help from banks.
The Takeover Price is priced at 0.7x book, and a Net Debt to EBITDA of 2x (when adjusted for securities+pension assets+DTLs) and 5-6x average 2026-2030 FCF.
This is being done too cheap: Toyota is the main customer, one third of revenues comes from Japan, and the company is set for a transition to EVs.

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

By Gaudenz Schneider

Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.
The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.
With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.

Ainsworth (AGI AU): A Dicey Scheme Vote Underwritten by an Alternative Takeover Offer

The Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) IE considers Novomatic’s A$1.00 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its A$0.93-1.07 valuation range. The vote is on 29 August.
The offer has drawn opposition from several notable shareholders. There remains at least a 50% chance that the scheme vote fails.
Novomatic can switch to an alternative takeover offer, which limits the downside risk. At the last close and for a 26 September payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.5%/8.2%.

Weekly Update (AAF, NLOP, KHC)

By Richard Howe

Kraft Heinz (KHC) is currently evaluating a plan to spin off a significant portion of its grocery business into a new, distinct entity. The WSJ reported that this transaction is likely to occur.
The news comes a decade after the infamous merger of two of the biggest names in packaged foods that was orchestrated by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital Partners.
This new entity, which can be referred to as “SpinCo,” would encompass many of the traditional Kraft products. The remaining company, or “RemainCo,” would strategically focus its operations on faster-growing segments, specifically sauces, spreads, and condiments.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 27

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Pacific Ind., Insignia Fin., PointsBet, New World Res., Frasers Hospitality
Weekly Deals Digest (27 Jul) – CK Hutchison, Pacific Industrial, FHT, Abacus, PointsBet, NSDL

Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

Prosus NV (PRX NA) is elevated vs. Tencent (700 HK) as the accretion trade unfolds.
As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), as opposed to Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.
Expect near-term weakness in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Pacific Ind., Insignia Fin., PointsBet, New World Res., Frasers Hospitality

I tally 38 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week – Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)‘s Tender Offer. Although I’m expecting an Offer for Cromwell Property (CMW AU).
Key updates/news took place on Insignia Financial (IFL AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP).

Weekly Deals Digest (27 Jul) – CK Hutchison, Pacific Industrial, FHT, Abacus, PointsBet, NSDL

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: NSDL (NSDL IN) is seeking to raise US$464 million.
Event-Driven developments: CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 26

Daily Brief Event-Driven: SKT Foreign Room Heating Up — Time to Front-Run? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

SKT Foreign Room Heating Up — Time to Front-Run?
Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): MBO at JPY2,050 Is Light but Likely Done

SKT Foreign Room Heating Up — Time to Front-Run?

SKT’s foreign room jumped from 12% to 20% in two months; if the pace holds, 25% is in play by next review, with ongoing foreign outflows from the SIM leak.
FOL shifts from foreign room swings have been a classic long-short play in Korea telcos — and the current setup looks similar, with most SIM leak risks already priced in.
If SKT’s foreign room nears 25%, expect front-running and passive flow imbalances to kick in — a familiar long-short setup that’s historically moved the telco tape early.

Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): MBO at JPY2,050 Is Light but Likely Done

Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) has recommended an MBO at JPY2,050, a 16.4% premium to the last close price and a 40.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
While the offer is below book value (P/B of 0.71x), it represents an all-time high and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Pacific Industrial has no history of activism. Therefore, the offer will succeed at current terms unless there is vocal opposition or an activist becomes a substantial shareholder.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) – Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) – Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution
Fraser Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): Scheme Vote on 15 August
Everything to Know About the Year-End CGT-Driven Retail Sell-Off & KOSPI Basis Move
Event Driven: Tilaknagar Ind ₹4,150 Cr Imperial Blue Acq.~Transformational Play or Leverage Trap?
[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports Pacific Industrial (7250) To Go Private Via MBO at ¥110bn
Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): 15th August Vote On Frasers Prop/TCC Offer
Event Driven: Natco Pharma’s Strategic Acquisition of Adcock Ingram

StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) – Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution

CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s delicate dance continues as it juggles U.S and Beijing politics; and its fiduciary duty to shareholders, as the Blackrock exclusivity long stop date looms.
In a double dose of StubWorld this week, preceding my comments on CKH – and CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Fraser Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): Scheme Vote on 15 August

The Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) IFA opines that Frasers Property Ltd (FPL SP)’s scheme offer of S$0.71 cash and permitted distributions (estimated at S$0.0098) is fair and reasonable.
While the current offer is arguably light compared to the failed 2022 offer, the lack of vocal opposition and limited retail displeasure reduces the vote risk.
On balance, the scheme vote should pass. For a 30 September payment, the gross/annualised spread of the total offer (S$0.7198) is 2.8%/15.6%.

Everything to Know About the Year-End CGT-Driven Retail Sell-Off & KOSPI Basis Move

If the CGT threshold drops from ₩5B to ₩1B, year-end retail selling could surge—net sales were ₩14T in Nov–Dec 2023 versus just ₩2.5T in the same period of 2024.
Retail may react strongly this year due to higher unrealized gains and the ₩1B CGT threshold return; about 65% of KOSPI stocks still use year-end dividend record dates.
Odds are high for a classic year-end CGT-driven retail sell-off and a sharp KOSPI cash-futures basis move, fueled by dividend uncertainty we can capitalize on.

Event Driven: Tilaknagar Ind ₹4,150 Cr Imperial Blue Acq.~Transformational Play or Leverage Trap?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Tilaknagar Industries (TLNGR IN) acquires Pernod Ricard India’s Imperial Blue for INR 4,150 crore, diversifying its portfolio into whisky from dominance in brandy.
This acquisition will establish TI as a pan-India spirits player, significantly enhancing distribution and is expected to be accretive.
However, substantial deal size raises concerns about equity dilution, high leverage risks, and significant integration challenges for TI

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports Pacific Industrial (7250) To Go Private Via MBO at ¥110bn

Overnight, the Nikkei carried an article saying Toyota valve supplier Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) would go private at a 40% premium in an MBO.
The implied price would match its ATH, but would remain far below book value, which is disappointing for a company with a very strong customer base and market share.
This is potentially blockable, but it would need to be activism from scratch I think. An activist or collection of them would need about 18-20% to block this deal.

Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP): 15th August Vote On Frasers Prop/TCC Offer

Back on the 14th May 2025, S-REIT Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) entered into a Scheme with its current sponsor, Frasers Property Limited, @ S$0.71/share.
The Scheme Consideration is 1.11x the latest adjusted NAV estimate of S$0.63904/unit; and S$0.01/unit above Frasers/TCC’s S$0.70/unit failed Offer back in September 2022.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 13th August. The IFA says fair and reasonable.

Event Driven: Natco Pharma’s Strategic Acquisition of Adcock Ingram

By Nimish Maheshwari

Natco Pharma acquires a 35.75% stake in South Africa’s Adcock Ingram, marking its largest overseas expansion to date.
This move instantly gives Natco a strong foothold in Africa’s pharma market and diversifies its global revenue streams from current headwind of US market.
Natco transitions from a primarily India/US-focused player to a serious contender in strategic emerging markets, enhancing its growth outlook.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds
StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”
TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow
CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80
Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)
Event Update: UniCredit Withdraws BPM Offer — End of the Line
PMV Pharmaceuticals: Evaluating Cash Position and Strategic Options Amid Upcoming Trial Results and Shareholder Pressure
GCI Liberty Spin-off Deep Dive

Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds

Since unwinding the Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus (PRX NA) circularity, Prosus has been selling Tencent shares, and buying back its share. Separately, Tencent is buying its shares to offset Prosus’ selling.
Prosus’ stake in Tencent has now edged below 23%, a little over seven months since dipping below 24%.
On an implied stub and relative value, Prosus is elevated to Tencent, suggesting an unwinding of the stub.

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”

As short-term rates rise, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s perceived superior fundamentals may be leading to a short squeeze on the stock versus Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP).
Preceding my comments on Japan Post – and Silicon Integrated Systems (2363 TT) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow

A bit over three years ago I re-wrote on Tsi Holdings (3608 JP). Then? EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA of 0.03x and 0.5x respectively. I pounded the table.
My recommended trade: “Buy the stock (preferably from cross-holders interested in selling). Buy with both hands. Buy a lot. Buy more later. Pressure the company to go private.”
Since then, total return has been +295%. Today they announced another buyback. Tomorrow morning it gets done. Details details details!

CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches

The 145-day exclusivity period between CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) and the BlackRock-TiL consortium for the politically charged ports deal ends on July 27.
The transaction is in limbo as China’s preferred pathway for approval (COSCO is included in the consortium as an equal partner) has several issues.
It is equally probable that the deal will be finalised in some shape or form or fall apart. With shares up 31% and nearing a five-year high, take profits.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80

On 22 July, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with CC Capital at A$4.80, a 4.0% discount to its previous non-binding offer of A$5.00.
The key conditions are regulatory (APRA, FIRB, ACCC, FCA) and shareholder approvals. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction.
The offer is reasonable in comparison to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transaction multiples. The timing of regulatory approvals is the key risk.

Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)

Korea’s first full-scale tax reform in 3 years sets the stage for rate tweaks and deduction shifts—follow-up amendment bills usually get fast-tracked with high legislative priority.
Dividend tax tweak could be the biggest near-term mover—eligibility widens, but tax cut shrinks. Focus shifts to names hiking payout, not just high-yielders—key for positioning.
I screened target names with FY1/FY2 payout data and narrowed to KRW 1T+ stocks showing ≥10% YoY payout growth—likely short-term momentum plays ahead of the tax overhaul.

Event Update: UniCredit Withdraws BPM Offer — End of the Line

By Special Situation Investments

UniCredit ends pursuit of BPM: Facing firm resistance from BPM and Rome, UniCredit formally withdraws its bid — closing the door on a deal the market never priced as likely.
Persistent negative spread undermined credibility: The gross spread remained negative from day one, reflecting deep investor skepticism around deal viability, regulatory clearance, and BPM’s willingness to engage.
Strategic implications for both sides: BPM reverts to standalone trajectory amid sector consolidation chatter; UniCredit’s retreat highlights constraints on its inorganic strategy — both political and market-driven.

PMV Pharmaceuticals: Evaluating Cash Position and Strategic Options Amid Upcoming Trial Results and Shareholder Pressure

PMVP’s market cap is $72m, with $166m in cash as of Q1, offering substantial discount to net cash.
Interim trial results for rezatapopt, targeting p53 Y220C mutation, expected soon; ORR of 30%+ seen as success.
Shareholder pressure significant, with 36% voting against board compensation; potential for strategic review if results disappoint.

GCI Liberty Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

In anticipation of its merger with Charter Communications (CHTR), Liberty Broadband (LBRDA/LBRDK) spun off its Alaska telecom business (GCI Liberty).
Liberty shareholders received 0.20 shares of GCI Liberty common stock per Liberty Broadband common share. Regular way trading starting on July 15, 2025.
GCI Liberty is the leading telecom provider in Alaska. The remoteness and harshness of the Alaskan landscape provides a moat around its business.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 23

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity
Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price
M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?

HD Merger: Overblown Policy Risk Creates a Convergence Play Opportunity

NAV sets the floor under the proposed bill. That’d cut the swap ratio from 1:0.162 to 1:0.128 — meaning Infracore holders get fewer CE shares than under market pricing.
Unlike the Doosan deal, this one’s unlikely to get walked back. With wide spreads and HD setting a 10% SO cap, the dislocation looks tradable despite appraisal right overhang.
Top holders/NPS hold ~50%, local instos 20%, foreigners 15% and retail the rest. Sentiment’s cautious but not hostile; appraisal risk looks manageable, making this spread a potential convergence play.

Makus: A Textbook Case Study of How Improving Shareholder Value Leads to Surging Share Price

By Douglas Kim

Makus Inc (093520 KS) is a textbook case study in Korea of how improving shareholder value leads to surging share price. Its example is simple and beautiful.
Makus announced that it will cancel a total of 6 million treasury shares (37% of outstanding shares) in the next three years until 2027 to increase shareholder value.
Applying a 15x P/E on EPS of 2,788 won (2027E) results in implied target price of 41,820 won per share, which would be a 67% further upside from current levels.

M&A of Hyundai Hyms – Who Will Buy Controlling Stake?

By Douglas Kim

The management ownership stake of Hyundai Hyms is up for sale. J&P Private Equity firm which owns 52.88% stake in Hyundai Hyms has sent out teaser letters to potential buyers.
Including a management premium ranging from 30% to 50%, the potential acquisition price (including management premium) could be worth about 481 billion won to 555 billion won.
Since the second largest shareholder, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) (20.89% stake), has the right of first negotiation, the selling side must first negotiate with HD KSOE.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More
Two New Tax Tweaks Set to Shake Up Korea’s Local Stock Market: Trading Tax & CGT Threshold
The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 July 2025); Volumes Strong, Net Buying Decent, Meituan Hot
Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): Brookfield’s Stake Foreshadows A Full Takeover
Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms
Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In
BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle
Weekly Update (GLIBK, BDX, WAT)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues Some More

AH premia flat again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Two New Tax Tweaks Set to Shake Up Korea’s Local Stock Market: Trading Tax & CGT Threshold

Trading tax gradually dropped from 0.25% in 2020 to 0.15% in 2025, boosting volatility and short-term trades; a hike to 0.25% could cool momentum but widen arbitrage and basis spreads.
If the major shareholder tax threshold drops to ₩1B, year-end retail dumps and Jan buybacks will return—but with less wild swings and more measured short-term fade and momentum trades.
If the tax revamp drops end-July, expect a September Assembly push. Usually effective next January, but like 2023’s cap gains hike, changes might apply immediately in 2025.

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

By Michael Causton

ACT’s bid for Seven & I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 July 2025); Volumes Strong, Net Buying Decent, Meituan Hot

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes again US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$550mm a day. Meituan the top buy extending a very strong 12 week run.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. INFO TECH negative again after two weeks of buying broke a three-month sell streak.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): Brookfield’s Stake Foreshadows A Full Takeover

As discussed in Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?, after ESR (1821 HK) acquired ARA Asset Management in 2021, it said Cromwell Property (CMW AU) was a non-core holding.
After ESR announced a privatisation by Warburg/Starwood on the 4th December 2024, I mused whether this would accelerate the sale as part of a wider strategic review.
Two months ago, ESR initiated a block trade for part of its 31% stake in Cromwell. Now Brookfield is seeking ESR’s remaining 19.9% stake @A$0.38/share. Subject to FIRB approval.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU) Accepts CC Capital’s Reduced Terms

Insignia Financial (IFL AU), a wealth manager and previously known as IOOF, has entered into a Scheme with CC Capital at $A$4.80/share.
That’s 56.9% premium to undisturbed (11th December 2024), 20% above Bain’s initial indicative tilt last year, but 4% below CC Capital (% Bain’s) A$5.00/share indictive Offer on the 7th March.
Apart from the Scheme vote, CC Capital’s Offer requires a raft a regulatory approvals. The SID indicates 1H26 completion.

Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In

By Gaudenz Schneider

Infosys (INFO IN / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Wednesday, 23 July 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.
Highlight: Analyzing historical post-earnings price movements, along with forward-looking options-implied volatility, provides valuable insights for event-driven strategies.
Why Read: Access the data and insights to take advantage of anticipated price moves and volatility crush. Potential option strategies explained.

BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle

BPER reopened its offer for Sondrio (21-25 Jul)y, presenting a 2.5% gross spread with settlement due by July 31 — a rare, time-sensitive arbitrage setup for short-term traders.
With 58.15% already secured, additional tenders could push BPER near the 66.7% threshold required for a merger, bypassing the need for a 95% squeeze-out.
The accelerated 5-day window signals strategic pressure on hesitant holders, while the offer’s confirmed execution and annualized IRR over 200% provide attractive asymmetry.

Weekly Update (GLIBK, BDX, WAT)

By Richard Howe

The big news this week is Liberty’s spin-off GCI Liberty began trading
On July 14, 2025, Becton Dickinson (BDX) announced a tax-free Reverse Morris Trust (RMT) spin-merger: BD will spin off its Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions (BDS) business into a new subsidiary (SpinCo) and immediately merge SpinCo with Waters Corporation (WAT).
Under the deal terms, Waters will pay ~$4.0B cash (funded by new debt) plus stock; BD shareholders receive the $4B cash and ~39.2% of the combined company (Waters shareholders ~60.8%).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook
Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing
Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle
Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails
Merger Arb Mondays (21 Jul) – ENN Energy, HEC Pharma, Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Zeekr
Asset Sales, Mergers, and Regulatory Developments: Key Updates from SSI Weekly Newsletter

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.
Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.
Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.

Anthem Biosciences IPO: Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timing

By Brian Freitas

Anthem Biosciences raised INR 34bn (US$394m) in its IPO valuing the company at INR 320bn (US$3.7bn). The stock lists today.
The grey market premium is INR 132/share, so the stock could list 23.2% higher than the IPO price. That will help in getting larger index flows.
Anthem Biosciences could be added to one global index in November while the stock price gain will determine whether the stock is added to the other global index in December.

Kakao Pay’s Unique Quick-Flip EB: Watch Hedges & Rolls for Trading Angle

This Kakao Pay EB deal is basically a quick block trade with immediate share exchange and a 90–102% strike price, letting them sell shares quietly with a built-in discount.
Korea’s seen many EBs, but Kakao Pay’s quick-flip, discount deal is really unique. Watch hedging and roll activity—timing these can capture the sell-off and unwind bounce.
Goldman’s sell-down triggers initial short covering and price bumps; new buyers then short, causing a second wave. Near exchange, more covering leads to choppy, drawn-out price swings.

Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks.
Both Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) and Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) spectacularly failed back in May.
Now Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Jul) – ENN Energy, HEC Pharma, Shibaura, Abacus Storage, Insignia, Zeekr

By Special Situation Investments

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), ZEEKR (ZK US).

Asset Sales, Mergers, and Regulatory Developments: Key Updates from SSI Weekly Newsletter

Next Science (NXS:AX) plans a large capital return after selling assets to Demetra Holdings, with a 13% spread to expected distribution.
Cantor Equity Partners I (CEPO) merges with BSTR, becoming a major Bitcoin treasury, exiting with a 17% gain.
Banxa’s (BNXA:V) spread widens to 30% amid shareholder sales and pending acquisition by OSL Group, with Genius Act tailwinds.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 20

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon
Weekly Deals Digest (20 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, DD Group, Dickson, Abacus Storage, PointsBet
Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ZEEKR, DD Group, Hanil Cement, Adriatic Metals, Abacus Storage, PointsBet

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the <10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection threshold.
While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis.
Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).

Weekly Deals Digest (20 Jul) – Seven & I, Shibaura, DD Group, Dickson, Abacus Storage, PointsBet

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: NSDL (NSDL IN) is seeking to raise US$400 million
Event-Driven developments: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), DD Group (3073 JP), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) walks away from Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), and accuses 7&i’s Board, management, and the Special Committee of bad faith and bad governance.
Buy Krungthai Card (KTC TB) with both hands as pledged sharesfall to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.
If you have borrow on GMO Internet (4784 JP), use it. Otherwise, avoid like the plague. It would not be surprising if the TSE were to ding someone on manipulation.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ZEEKR, DD Group, Hanil Cement, Adriatic Metals, Abacus Storage, PointsBet