Financials

• If brokers let shorts exceed borrow, TRS end investors risk getting caught in the legal crossfire.
• Some TRS players are setting up short-book systems and reg numbers proactively, ensuring brokers share borrow data to stay ahead of any compliance risks.
• With most illegal shorts tied to TRS, and TRS dominating the market, the FSS will likely introduce TRS-specific rules rather than granting exemptions.

• TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
• 161 new CGRs were filed in February 2025. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
• THE BIG NEWS: The “Document 3” (linked below) of the TSE’s 20th Council Meeting 18 Feb is worth reading carefully. This will set the stage for more takeover fun.

• Learn about India’s worst accounting fraud, including Yes Bank, Satyam Computer, Kingfisher and others in this report.
• Misappropriation features prominently in these scandals, in addition to fraudulent reporting and corporate governance failure.
• Siphoning of funds from bank loans, in particular, has been a common feature of Indian corporate malfeasance.

• Crisil Ltd (CRISIL IN) and India Rating Downgrade AGS Transact Technologies (AGSTRA IN) to ‘D’ from “A/Stable’ post a default
• Rating agencies exist to anticipate events such as defaults and not react after being informed of a default
• Rating agencies ignored poor fundamentals of AGS Transact Technologies (AGSTRA IN) in 2QFY2025 results which clearly and publicly revealed deteriorating cash flows and a high-risk financial strategy

• Sell-Off continues with all four trading days this week registering losses.
• 1M Implied vols firmed on the sharp move lower but remain capped at 14 for the time being.
• March seasonality positive for Nifty which might help reverse the trend in the second half of the month.

• Our latest insight on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) recognized the possibility of obstacles against a rally from the index’s lows.
• The index has fallen for another 2 weeks from there, now it is very oversold and a relief rally could begin this week or the next.
• Profit targets for this relief rally are in the 23100 area, but unfortunately the forecast is maximum 3 weeks up, not really a bullish pattern…

• Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, with a net outflow of S$265 million from Feb 21-27, 2025.
• DBS Group Holdings led share buybacks with 350,000 shares at S$46.73 each; total buybacks amounted to S$31,062,634.
• Wilmar International’s FY24 core net profit declined 26% to US$1.16 billion, with sales volume growth in most divisions.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land, Lenovo
• In the US, January personal spending unexpectedly declined 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.8% revised p), driven by an outsized drop in motor vehicle purchases, as well as decreases in categories such as recreational goods amid the harsh winter weather. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.9% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p).
• Separately, the PCE inflation data for January was in line with estimates, showing a slight deceleration on a y-o-y basis. The PCE price index rose 2.5% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.6% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p) in January, while the core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) advanced 2.6% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.9% revised p) and 0.3% mo-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).

• New World Development’s (NWD) H1/24-25 results were weak.
• The company reported another large net loss of HKD 6.6 bn (after a HKD 19.7 bn loss in FY 2023-24), mainly driven by impairment losses.
• Moreover, the underlying business performance remained soft, as operating profit (excluding one-off items) fell 18% y-o-y.

• AEON Mall (8905 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced a MoU for the potential privatisation of Aeon Mall through a share exchange offer.
• The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. 
• Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding facilitates passing the Aeon Mall shareholder vote. My analysis suggests a potential share exchange (Aeon Mall/Aeon) ratio range of 0.60x-0.69x.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, Mixue Group (2097 HK) looks set to break the tea chain jinx in its listing today, while JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will set its pricing.
• On the placements front, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) was back with a US$4bn+ deal in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP).

• Sideways range finally breaks giving way to higher 1M implied vols, now above the 75th percentile.
• Move lower potentially exacerbated by short gamma positions around the 38,000 strike.
• Seasonals not favorable for Nikkei over the next two weeks.

• The majority of the investors placed orders at 26,000 won, which is the lower end of the IPO price range (26,000 won to 31,800 won).
• SGIC held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be 26,000 won) will be revealed on 4 March. 
• Our updated base case valuation of SGIC is base case target price of 28,925 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a negative view of this deal.

• On 28-Feb-25, the last day of their fiscal year, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) signed a deal to acquire Aeon Delight via Tender Offer and Aeon Mall via scrip exchange.
• For Aeon Mall, that means negotiation on the share exchange ratio over the next 5-6 weeks. 
• While I have an opinion on the fair ratio (explained below), I find “Guess The Ratio” trades fraught with bad governance outcomes. The 3-month average is often used.

• NPS’s aggressive net buying over the past four months? Just a 3% buffer rebalance—not some structural bullish call on K-stocks.
• Street intel points to NPS capping buys in the low-14% range, 1%p below target, only defending against dips. With short selling back on from March 31, further buying looks unlikely.
• With NPS stepping back and retail still weak, no real size remains on the buy side. Short flow could hit harder than expected—time to price it in and adjust positioning.

• Hong Kong has halted land sales in order to boost the office market within the region.
• Singapore’s Centurion saw their profits more than double to $257M, driven by soaring property valuations.
• Alibaba announces plans to invest a substantial $53 billion in AI infrastructure development.

• Revised Offer Terms: BBVA increased the cash payment to €0.13/Sabadell share (raising total cash outlay to €705 million), while adjusting the exchange ratio to 5.3456 Sabadell shares per BBVA share.
• The deal requires CNMC, CNMV, and government approvals, with market skepticism evident as Sabadell’s market price exceeds the offer value, signaling a low probability of success under current terms.
• Financial Impact on BBVA: The increased cash component raises the estimated CET1 capital impact to 51bps, with potential further dilution if BBVA raises the cash payment to €0.20-€0.30 per share.

• BFI Finance Indonesia booked a strong finish to FY2024, as bookings increased by YoY and HoH, with the NPF ratio falling at the same time leading to higher revenues. 
• The company’s loan growth momentum has picked up considerably as indicated by management in the previous quarter, which should be reassuring for investors, with growth set to continue in 2025.
• BFI Finance Indonesia has yet to see a meaningful contribution from its collaboration with GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, which is a potential future growth driver. Valuations attractive on PBV to ROE. 

• Well positioned to capitalize on Japan’s intergenerational wealth transfer megatrend – The company continues to demonstrate positive growth momentum as evidenced by the double-digit topline growth in Q1-4 FY12/24.
• The recent Chester Group acquisition should reinforce its position to ride the powerful trend in Japan’s aging demographics and intergenerational wealth transfer.
• We think the company’s strategic approach towards allocating capital to the growth of the business while minimizing shareholder dilution through share buybacks demonstrates a commitment to shareholder value and financial discipline.

• We introduce our Japanese big cap banks scorecard; from this, we pick Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with our wildcard being Shizuoka
• The scorecard metrics measure leverage to higher interest rates, LDRs, levels of cash balances, bond exposures, cross-holdings and valuations; from this, we derive a weighted ranking for each bank
• We remove Concordia from our buy list; we prefer Shizuoka for its better leverage to rising rates and high ratio of cross-holdings to market capitalization with a holdings reduction plan

• Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
• Near-Term we wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
• This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.

• The number of units in the company’s property management segment grew 23% sequentially in 3Q24 to 9,283 from 7,560 at the end of 2Q24.
• OMH attributes this to its expanded presence in the property management space.
• Its goal is to continue to increase the number of units under management, which Ohmyhome believes will contribute to growing Property Management segment and consolidated revenue, in part reflecting cross-promotional opportunities as a growth driver.

• Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) has launched a robust digital ecosystem with its flagship JioFinance app, enhancing its tech-driven financial service offerings.
• The digital-first strategy minimizes legacy constraints, enabling personalized financial solutions that significantly boost efficiency and competitive advantage.
• This evolution redefines traditional banking, positioning JFSL as a versatile, technology-led powerhouse for sustainable growth in India’s financial sector.

• The Offering comes in lighter than expected. The buyback is smaller than expected. The resultant overhang is larger than expected. 
• The index flows around the delivery date are well-understood. They are what they are.
• Shareholder structure is such that this is not quite a new IPO but needs a lot of new shareholders. BUT… there is one redeeming feature one should not ignore.

• Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 416.1 million shares (including overallotment), worth around US$4.2 billion.
• The offering includes a ToSTNeT-3 and an on-market buyback. Including the overallotment, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will reduce its stake from 61.50% to 50.00% of voting rights. 
• Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH’s past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10 March.

• Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
• JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
• In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Hotel Indigo Auckland is up for sale by McVay Real Estate and Whillans Realty Group, offering a prime investment opportunity.
• CDL Chairman accuses son of attempted coup, but Kwek remains CEO, ensuring stability within the company’s leadership.
• Mapletree makes a strategic move by buying a Hong Kong site for $473M at a significant discount, positioning itself for future growth.

• Growth in the other revenues segment drove total revenues of P$1.2 bn, increasing 2% YoY (better than our estimate).
• The other revenue row (land sales) reached P$424 million, representing 36% of total sales.
• On the other hand, the weak housing sales performance was due to a substantial 59% YoY contraction in total units, mainly explained by delays in the company’s work in progress and inventories (negatively impacted by weather, delay in permits, among others).

• SES AI marked an important milestone with its 4Q24 results, transitioning from pure-play R&D to active commercialization.
• The company booked $2 million in revenue at a 63% gross margin from previously announced deals with (1) EV OEMs for battery materials discovery and (2) cells for drones.
• SES AI also noted some of its 4Q cell revenue for drone applications was with SoftBank’s HAPS drone program, which suggests that it is building on the initial traction announced in the Data Blanket deal in this space. 

• Media reports indicate that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) could sell JPY 600bn (US$4.02bn) of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) with the announcement coming as early as this week.
• The selldown is driven by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) needing to reduce its holding in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) to 50% or lower by March 2026.
• Passive index trackers will buy around 11.4% of the offering at the time of settlement of the placement shares with the balance being bought in January 2026.

• On 22-February-2023 a Reuters suggested JPH (6178) had “started talks” to sell a big stake in JP Bank (7182). Five days later they announced a complicated deal discussed here.
• Today, an article suggests Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will sell ¥600bn in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) to get ownership below 50% (as with JPI). A buyback might appear.
• JPB has issued a “there’s smoke” release. Like last time. Expected unwind of known overhang means minimal surprise here. The question is whether they could surprise (big buyback? capital plan?).

• Reportedly, China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) and China Galaxy Securities (6881 HK), two of China’s leading state-backed brokerages, intend to merge via a share swap, forming China’s third-largest broker.
• This report/rumour arrives shortly after the successful merger of Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) (GJS) and Haitong Securities (6837 HK). 
• As with GJS/Haitong, expect a Merger by Absorption structure, and that Galaxy (or CICC?) issue new A and H shares to the target. I’d be picking up CICC shares here. 

• Reuters reports that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) is planning to sell shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), which could total some JPY600 billion (US$4.0 billion).
• The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025.
• The potential offering is relatively smaller than JPB’s 2023 offering. Compared to its peers, JPB’s valuation remains undemanding. 

• The odds of the cornerstone system getting the green light are significantly higher than they were two years ago.
• With bills typically taking a year to kick in, we need to stay on this—if all goes smoothly, cornerstone investors could hit Korean IPOs as early as next year.
• In the early stages, cornerstone allocations will be key to shaping our IPO trading playbook. Staying ahead of these shifts is crucial.

• The headline Indian mid cap indices are still expensive, despite a sharp decline since late September. However, when adjusted for growth, many fundamentally attractive mid-caps are cheap.
• We screen mid-caps with PEG<1.3x, consensus Buy recommendations and increasing consensus EPS estimates over the past six months. We choose well-covered stocks so that the consensus estimates are meaningful.
• Our basket of 20 contains six financial stocks, five materials, four industrials and three consumer discretionaries. Many pertain to the themes of renewable energy, data centers, healthcare, tourism and infrastructure.

• Costar Group (CSGP US) to acquire Matterport (MTTR US) for $1.6 billion, boosting its digital real estate capabilities.
• The regulatory hurdles and recent optimism on expected completion of the acquisition.
• The acquisition’s impact on major U.S. indices, expected mostly on an intra-quarter basis.

• After online trading player SelfWealth (SWF AU) entered into a SID with Bell Financial (BFG AU) on the 25th November, Singaporean-based wealth manager Svava gate-crashed the party earlier this month. 
• Svava tabled a non-binding A$0.28/share Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme, versus Bell’s A$0.25/share. Svava also built an effective blocking stake – 18.83% of shares out.
• After Bell said it won’t make a counterproposal yesterday, SelfWealth has now entered into Scheme with Svava. Expect implementation in May. 

• Formation of a two-party coalition is seen as good news, as it eliminates the need to bring in additional parties with conflicting views
• Despite differences in specific tools, major parties align on broad objectives such as reducing energy prices and supporting key sectors
• The sense of responsibility to keep far-right parties out of power may drive centrist parties to work together effectively, potentially boosting business sentiment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Digital Realty is a global data center player across all major markets.  The DC demand will be back by secular trends including AI, Cloud and enterprise digitalization
• DLR’s focus on pricing, development pipeline and balance sheet enables it to achieve long-term sustainable growth, delivering a mid single digit FFO growth
• We also think DLR has maintained a strong balance sheet.  DLR is still in the process of de-leveraging with healthy credit metrics

• Deposit growth has been decent and exceeded loan growth, allowing HDFCB to bring down its credit-deposit ratio. Average deposits grew 15%+ YoY, while loans grew at 7%+ YoY in Q3FY25.
• Despite tough macro environment, HDFCB was able to gain market share in deposits. Despite headwinds from tight liquidity leading to competitive pricing, HDFCB was able to maintain its NIM.
• HDFCB is benefitting from its productivity and technology-led enhancements with costs growing at just 7% YoY. Despite weak macro-economic environment, HDFCB’s asset quality has remained pristine, barring seasonality in Agri-loans.

• Global capital flowing into Australian logistics market as it reaches turning point, attracting investments.
• Japan REIT makes deals in Tokyo, buying Tokyo Tower for $120M and selling office block for $62M.
• CapitaLand India Trust acquires Bengaluru offices for $170M after project funding, expanding its portfolio.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• Greentown China
• UPL Ltd

• PROFILE SOFTWARE S.A. (the group or the company) offers innovative, award-winning and flexible software solutions developed with high quality standards for the banking and investment management industry.
• Continuous R&D invest- ments and close contact with clients and associates around the world allows the company to keep innovating and meet the growing market needs.
• The company’s vision and goal is to provide innovative software solutions that enable finan- cial institutions and corporations across the world to deliver their full potential to their clients. 

• The push for MSCI DM inclusion drove Korea’s full short-selling resumption, clearing the KRX index rights issue, allowing MSCI to roll out derivatives, making full short selling the final step.
• With full short-selling back, traders are watching for large-scale quant funds to return, potentially boosting liquidity across the market alongside the ATS launch, after years of individual large-cap setups.
• The market is watching how full short-selling resumption narrows bid-ask spreads and impacts sector rotation, prompting traders to prepare setups for the broader market shift.

• European peace optimism driving continental asset prices, especially equities, while Chinese tech stocks sizzle hot in Asia
• US real yields impacting global risky asset markets, with Fed’s dovish reaction function leading to plummeting real yields
• Dollar likely to stay soggy in short term until potential FOMC hawkishness or tariff-related events reignite Trump trades and boost dollar bullishness, while yen strength may not be sustainable due to BOJ policy and yield spread factors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the near term, with a majority of participants pointing to a still restrictive policy stance
• Front end treasury yields are anchored by Fed’s current stance, leading to low range volatility and ongoing support for the treasury market
• Discussion on balance sheet policy suggests QT may end earlier than expected, with reinvestment of MBS proceeds likely to be in T bills, potentially impacting term premium and yield curve dynamics

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Manappuram Finance is a leading Indian NBFC specializing in gold loans, offering financial services to lower socio-economic backgrounds with 5,286 branches across India.
• The RBI had barred the microfinance arm Aashirwad Micro Finance from sanctioning and disbursing loans due to non-compliance.  Company is planning for  IPO and intended to raise INR 1500 Crore.
• Manappuram is committed to growing its secured lending portfolio, including gold loans and other secured assets and anticipates overall growth of 15%-18% in the consolidated loan book.

• Keppel is an asset manager and operator with business in infrastructure, real estate and connectivity
• The company is undergoing transformation from an asset-heavy conglomerate to an asset light manager with strong recurring income
• We also like the strong capital management and its focus on total shareholder returns, valuation is not demanding

• After eight consecutive days of gains, the Kospi rally paused in the last two sessions, closing just above 350.
• The 350 area aligns with several key levels from the past three years.
• For those looking to hedge recent gains, we recommend two preferred hedge strategies.

• As expected, Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) replaces East Buy Holding (1797 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March.
• In a surprise, Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) will be added and ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C (6060 HK) will be deleted.
• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is also an inclusion to the HSIII Index and HSCI Index and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect in May.

• In April 2024, we published a few notes on Japan REITs on the back of interest rate cut cycle and weaker Asian currencies
• Today, the macro environment has shifted, Japan has started a rate hike cycle. 
• Japan Hotel REITs will suffer due to negative impact on tourism and higher cap rate assumptions

• The 150 level on USD/JPY seems to be an area of heightened interest. We see potential for greater disparity of Nikkei returns below this level.
• Nikkei 1-month implied vol is at the 17th percentile; while not currently monetizing, caution is warranted on short vol positions as USD/JPY vol trends higher.
• Call volume dropped sharply vs total volume, with Puts outpacing Calls every day this week.

• Coinbase Global, Inc. reported substantial growth in its 2024 financial results, showing significant strategic progress and adaptability in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
• The company achieved over $6.6 billion in total revenue, more than doubling from the previous year, along with $3.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA.
• This affirmative financial trajectory marks two consecutive years of positive adjusted EBITDA, reinforcing its transition into a resilient company that performs in diverse market conditions.

• Nifty’s prolonged downtrend continues, making it the worst-performing market year-to-date.
• Low volatility dominated price action, with 1-week historic vol at just 3.54 ranking in the 4th percentile since 2021. Possible precursor to a break from here.
• Traders may consider letting deltas run, as daily delta hedging offers little benefit in this low vol environment.

• Siam Commercial Bank stands out from its peers for its focus on its new-generation businesses, which have started to bear fruit, whilst the bank provides a solid base.  
• The bank’s key focus is improving efficiency and asset quality, with the meaningful deployment of AI across the group, while targeting stable growth in its core banking business.
• Siam Commercial Bank also expects growing contributions from its 2nd generation businesses including Cardd X and Auto X. Valuations are attractive given the bank’s relatively high ROE and future prospects.

• Moody’s Corporation reported highly commendable financial results for the fourth quarter and the full-year 2024, highlighting robust revenue growth and profitability across its major business segments.
• Moody’s achieved total revenue growth of 20% for the year, surpassing $7 billion, significantly driven by the Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) and Moody’s Analytics (MA) divisions.
• The company managed to expand its adjusted operating margin by over 400 basis points, translating into a 26% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS).

• Currency Exchange International (CURN) exits Canadian operations, incurring discontinuation costs, but expects $5-$6m profit tailwind by 2026.
• SPAR Group (SGRP) faces a third financing delay, suggesting Highwire Capital’s potential funding issues or hesitance.
• Embracer Group’s (EMBRAC-B:ST) valuation update post-Asmodee spin-off indicates potential 20%-80% upside if market recognizes Asmodee stake.

• I want to use my introduction to provide some comments on Howard Hughes (HHH).

• Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management has disclosed a new offer related to Howard Hughes.

• The proposal is that Pershing Square Capital Management purchases 10 million newly issued shares at $90 each, totaling $900 million, which would increase Pershing Square’s stake from 37.6% to 48%.

• RaaS has published an update report on diversified financials company Bell Financial Group (ASX:BFG) following the release of its FY24 audited results which demonstrated H2 CY24 acceleration in NPAT relative to H1 in the key recurring revenue businesses of Technology & Platforms (+18% vs. +2%) and Products & Services (+9% vs. +3%) as scale benefits continue.
• The Retail & Institutional business benefited from improved ECM activity and equity volumes, with H1 FY24 NPAT growth ~290% and H2 FY24 +6% off a strong base.
• Products & Services delivered 10% NPAT growth in CY24, with H2 growth accelerating to 16% following 3% growth in H1 as scale benefits kicked in.

• We continue to be led down the garden path – no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in March means we remain at 83 members.
• Despite having an opportunity to add stocks to the index without increasing turnover, the index committee have done nothing. Which begs the question – what exactly are they waiting for?
• Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.8% and the resulting round-trip trade is HK$16.7bn (US$2.15bn).

• We think Keppel DC REIT is an interesting play to look at for the AI revolution.  The markets are supported by strong fundamentals
• With a strong balance sheet and low leverage, the Company has ample headroom to do more M&As to drive DPU growth
• The stock has corrected post Deepseek incident.  We think valuation is attractive and presents an interesting opportunity.