Most Read

In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. The recommendations have to be implemented by 3 November.
There is a high probability that NSE Indices implements the changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the September rebalance. Nothing has been announced yet though.
If implemented in September, Yes Bank and Union Bank Of India could be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.35% and the round-trip trade is INR 149bn (US$1.7bn).

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Increasing Foreign Room & Passive Buying

Foreign room in SK Telecom (017670 KS) is over 21% now and increasing as foreign investors sell stock.
Further foreign selling could take foreign room past 25% and that will result in passive inflows for the stock. Timing is dependent on when the 25% threshold is crossed.
SK Telecom has underperformed its peers over the last 3 months and that has shrunk its valuation premium. Watch for a further increase in foreign room for an entry point.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Passive Buying in the Next 6 Weeks

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) listed in March and did not get Fast Entry to global indices since a large part of the IPO was allotted to domestic retail investors.
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will be added to one global index this month and could be added to the other global index in September.
The stock is trading higher following the better than forecast results announced last week. The index inclusions could take the stock higher in the short-term.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.

LG Chem: Flurry of Asset Sales Raises the Probability of A Partial Sale of LG Energy Solution

By Douglas Kim

In the past three months, LG Chem has announced two asset sales worth 1.6 trillion won including dermal filler and water filter businesses.
Due to worsening balance sheet and need to raise additional capital, there is an increasing probability of LG Chem selling a partial stake in LGES in the next 6-12 months.
Our NAV valuation of LG Chem suggests implied NAV per share of 414,325 won, which is 49% higher than current levels.

US Inflation Skips Several Months

By Phil Rush

July’s US inflation print reversed all of the increase built in from tariffs over the past several months, despite matching expectations prevailing into the release.
Core goods inflation eased slightly, suggesting ongoing corporate success in avoiding the tariff shock. But service inflation is stuck too high to be consistent with the target.
Anti-avoidance measures and belated pass-through will drive further rises. We doubt they will be as severe as many fear, yet still not create much space to cut rates.

Stealthy Long-Short Flow Playing Out Via Local KOSPI 200 Covered Call ETFs

Covered call ETFs ramped up KOSPI 200 weekly call selling, pushing premiums unusually low despite modest overall volume—likely a key driver behind the premium compression.
KOSPI 100 outperformed KOSPI 200 small-mid caps by 3.7%p last month, probably boosted by call-selling ETFs’ delta-hedge buying concentrated in large caps.
Watch for hedge buy flows ramping up before big events. Timing short-term longs in large caps and shorts in smaller KOSPI 200 names around these windows can yield solid alpha.

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in September

Nearing the end of the review period for the September rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK).
WuXi AppTec, Zhongji Innolight and BeiGene could replace China United Network, NARI Technology and China National Nuclear Power in the ETF at the close on 19 September.
Passives will need to trade 0.1-0.7x ADV in the forecast changes. The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Consortium’s Light Preconditional Scheme Offer

By Arun George

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK) disclosed a preconditional privatisation from a consortium at HK$9.25, a 9.9% premium to last close and a 21.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The key condition will be approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection). The offer is final.
The scheme vote risk is medium-to-high due to an unattractive offer, a blocking stake below the substantial disclosure threshold, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.

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Aug 12

Most Read: HDFC Bank, Horizon Robotics, Consun Pharmaceutical, SK Hynix, Toyo Construction, SK Square , Toyota Motor, SK Telecom, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Ashimori Industry and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes
Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions
Yeouido Views Grow: Hynix’s Contract Risks & Samsung Supply Push Drive Long-Short Play Through 1H26
[Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends
Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup
Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook After $10B Profit Cut on Tariff Impact
SK Telecom (017670 KS): Increasing Foreign Room & Passive Buying
Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades
[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book

NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change

In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. The recommendations have to be implemented by 3 November.
There is a high probability that NSE Indices implements the changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the September rebalance. Nothing has been announced yet though.
If implemented in September, Yes Bank and Union Bank Of India could be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.35% and the round-trip trade is INR 149bn (US$1.7bn).

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions

A methodology change for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) will result in 20 deletions at the close of trading on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 9.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.3bn (US$162m). Passive trackers need to sell between 0.05-1x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the other index constituents since the start of the year but there has been little movement since the announcement of the methodology change.

Yeouido Views Grow: Hynix’s Contract Risks & Samsung Supply Push Drive Long-Short Play Through 1H26

Street chatter says Hynix’s HBM4 hike tops ~20%, not covering costs — and Nvidia’s pushing similar cuts on its flagship 12-Hi HBM3E.
Yeouido’s watching “Blind” posts from Samsung engineers saying 1c 12-Hi HBM4 yields look strong — fueling bets Samsung will cut prices, ramp HBM3E now, and challenge Hynix in HBM4.
In Yeouido, the Samsung long/Hynix short theme is seen as a structural trade through 1H next year amid Hynix’s contract uncertainty and Samsung’s supply entry potential.

[Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends

In March 2022, Infroneer bid ¥770. The Board said “too low” but then accepted. A month later, YFO offered ¥1,000. Too high, bad owner, not accepted.
Summer 2023 after a year of palm to the face for YFO, the Board was partly spilled. YFO bid ¥1,255/share and the Board said the premium was too low.
Now, the Board has accepted a bid from Taisei at a roughly similar premium. But the price is ¥1,750/share. Infroneer and YFO have agreed to sell. Minorities win… -ish

Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup

Hunting the reversion point for Square-Hynix price ratio amid local buzz: need clear pro-business tax signals and Hynix’s downtrend to continue despite today’s bounce.
Tax tweak likely turns neutral despite gov’s cautious tone today. Hynix’s bounce faces headwinds from supply ramp and yield issues, so fresh rally odds remain slim.
Focus on hunting SK Square vs. Hynix price ratio reversion, pairing it with Samsung Long/Hynix Short for a strong short-term trade setup to ride the trend.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook After $10B Profit Cut on Tariff Impact

By Nico Rosti

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) on Thursday announced it expected a profit hit of nearly $10 billion from US tariffs on cars imported into the USA.
Toyota cut its full-year profit forecast by 16%, citing rising US tariffs on cars, parts, steel, aluminum, uncertainty in market outlook and supplier impacts.
Our model does not see an overbought state at the moment and the stock was rallying on Friday, the forecast is: higher prices next week.

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Increasing Foreign Room & Passive Buying

Foreign room in SK Telecom (017670 KS) is over 21% now and increasing as foreign investors sell stock.
Further foreign selling could take foreign room past 25% and that will result in passive inflows for the stock. Timing is dependent on when the 25% threshold is crossed.
SK Telecom has underperformed its peers over the last 3 months and that has shrunk its valuation premium. Watch for a further increase in foreign room for an entry point.

Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades

KCMC 2025 will likely reveal fresh, unpriced stimulus details, potentially sparking a price rally like last year’s 2% KOSPI 200 jump on the value-up ETF rollout.
The key wildcard at KCMC 2025 is dividends—shifting from Yoon’s Japan-style ROE grind to a Taiwan-style push for bigger shareholder payouts.
With Sept 29 approaching, dividend policy buzz may drive price moves—smart to prep dividend momentum trades to front-run this catalyst.

[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is buying out its own equity affiliate Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at a near-all-time high price of ¥4,140/share.
It’s not a great price, but it is just over 1x book after writedowns this past quarter. It basically requires cross-holders and half a retail to tender.
But this autoparts business is a strong grower, and has no EV risk. And its non-autoparts business is more interesting. The “fair” multiples are low. But it’ll get done.

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Aug 11

Most Read: Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Horizon Robotics, HDFC Bank, DigiPlus Interactive , Consun Pharmaceutical, Shinhan Financial, S&P/ASX 200, Toyo Construction and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!
Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes
NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change
PCOMP Index Rebalance: PLUS to Replace BLOOM as Regulatory Concerns Hit Stock
Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions
Korea Local Banks: New Dividend Tax Effectively Locks in a De Facto Minimum Yield Play
S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut
[Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.
The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.
Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.

Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up

The fall in Hisense Home Appliances Group (921 HK)‘s stock price over the last year puts it at risk of deletion from a global index in August.
Short interest and positioning have picked up in the stock over the last couple of weeks and there should be short covering against the passive selling.
The AH premium for Hisense Home Appliances Group could increase over the near-term as positioning continues ahead of the passive selling.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).

NIFTY Bank Index: Big Flows & The Upcoming Methodology Change

In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. The recommendations have to be implemented by 3 November.
There is a high probability that NSE Indices implements the changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the September rebalance. Nothing has been announced yet though.
If implemented in September, Yes Bank and Union Bank Of India could be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.35% and the round-trip trade is INR 149bn (US$1.7bn).

PCOMP Index Rebalance: PLUS to Replace BLOOM as Regulatory Concerns Hit Stock

As forecast, DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) will replace Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) at the close of trading on 15 August.
DigiPlus Interactive has traded lower following the filing of the Online Gambling Regulatory bill that aims to enhance responsible gaming standards and strengthen regulatory oversight in the sector.
DigiPlus Interactive is in the early stages of a buyback and is looking to launch in Brazil and South Africa. The index inclusion could provide some respite in the short-term.

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance Preview: Methodology Change Leads to 20 Deletions

A methodology change for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) will result in 20 deletions at the close of trading on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 9.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.3bn (US$162m). Passive trackers need to sell between 0.05-1x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the other index constituents since the start of the year but there has been little movement since the announcement of the methodology change.

Korea Local Banks: New Dividend Tax Effectively Locks in a De Facto Minimum Yield Play

We’ve got a locked-in floor on ’26 DPS and clear upside, providing a solid dividend yield baseline—ideal for leaning into aggressive trade setups.
We can lean into spot longs with covered calls, but yields (especially KB, Shinhan) aren’t yet compelling. A pullback before the ’26 dividend run is a prime entry window.
Plus, a bank long-short: long KB/Shinhan, short Hana/Woori. KB and Shinhan face payout increases, with ’26 guidance in 4Q25 earnings as the catalyst.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut

By Gaudenz Schneider

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.
Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty.

[Japan M&A] Taisei Corp To Take Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Private – Governance Torture Ends

In March 2022, Infroneer bid ¥770. The Board said “too low” but then accepted. A month later, YFO offered ¥1,000. Too high, bad owner, not accepted.
Summer 2023 after a year of palm to the face for YFO, the Board was partly spilled. YFO bid ¥1,255/share and the Board said the premium was too low.
Now, the Board has accepted a bid from Taisei at a roughly similar premium. But the price is ¥1,850/share. Infroneer and YFO have agreed to sell. Minorities win… -ish

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✓ Company Analytics and News
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Aug 10

Most Read: Horizon Robotics, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, Laopu Gold, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, King Slide Works, Lg Innotek, Dentsu Inc, Hoshizaki Corporation, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Softbank Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices
Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!
King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index
Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch
Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely
Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August
Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up
JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) missed global index inclusion in May following completion of full circulation. The primary placement in May then improved chances of index inclusion in August.
The stock rose nearly 60% in the 2 months following the placement and has lost more than a third of its value from the peak in the last month.
The stock could be added to both global indices with one inclusion at the end of August and one in mid-September. That could provide short-term support for the stock.

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.
The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.
Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.

King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index

King Slide Works (2059 TT)‘s stock price has more than doubled over the last 4 months and that should result in global index inclusion in August.
King Slide Works (2059 TT) has outperformed its peer group over the last few months and now trades at a big valuation premium.
There has been a lot of short covering, and positioning in the stock appears to be smaller than the estimated passive buying.

Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch

There are 3 stocks in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in August and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
Short interest has increased in all 3 stocks since the resumption of short selling. Cumulative excess volume is higher in all stocks over the last couple of months.
Given the increase in shorts and positioning, there could be short covering in two of the three stocks. The third could still drop over the next couple of weeks.

Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely

The drop in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last year and trades cheaper than the average of its Advertising peers.
There is positioning in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP), though it is likely to be smaller than the estimated passive selling. A relative selloff could be used to enter the stock.

Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August

Hoshizaki Corporation (6465 JP)‘s stock price has dropped over the last 3 months, and the lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August.
An early cutoff in the review period could result in the stock staying on in the index but that puts it at risk of deletion in November.
There has been an increase in short interest and cumulative excess volume over the last couple of months and that indicates positioning in the stock.

Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up

The fall in Hisense Home Appliances Group (921 HK)‘s stock price over the last year puts it at risk of deletion from a global index in August.
Short interest and positioning have picked up in the stock over the last couple of weeks and there should be short covering against the passive selling.
The AH premium for Hisense Home Appliances Group could increase over the near-term as positioning continues ahead of the passive selling.

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.

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Aug 09

Most Read: Horizon Robotics, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Dentsu Inc, Technopro Holdings, Furukawa Battery, Softbank Group, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Kolon Mobility Group, Iress Ltd, PointsBet Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!
Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely
[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…
JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up
[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy
Tender Offer and Delisting of Kolon Mobility Group by Kolon Corp
Iress (IRE AU): Nothing Firm As Blackstone And Thoma Bravo Circle
PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps and Declares Offer Unconditional

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.
The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.
Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.

Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely

The drop in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last year and trades cheaper than the average of its Advertising peers.
There is positioning in Dentsu Inc (4324 JP), though it is likely to be smaller than the estimated passive selling. A relative selloff could be used to enter the stock.

[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities

This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…

54 weeks ago Advantage Partners and Furukawa Electric announced a deal to take Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) sub Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) private. The acquisition price was LOW.
Minorities got more – more than book. But the deal included a payment delay allowing BVPS to rise 8.8% from the announcement date. No synergies.
Furukawa Electric gets to buy back in at a price below book. And because there are cash and securities and lots of net receivables, the operating assets are well below.

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2025 – maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

Tender Offer and Delisting of Kolon Mobility Group by Kolon Corp

By Douglas Kim

Kolon Corp (002020 KS) announced that it is conducting a tender offer and delisting of Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS).
The tender offer prices are 4,000 won per common share (20.3% higher than current price) and 5,950 won per preferred share (25.3% higher than current price) for Kolon Mobility Group.
The tender offer prices and stock swap ratios are especially attractive for Kolon Mobility Group shareholders.

Iress (IRE AU): Nothing Firm As Blackstone And Thoma Bravo Circle

Back in 2021, Swedish PE outfit EQT and Iress Ltd (IRE AU) were unable to firm a transaction. This was discussed in Iress (IRE AU) Accepts EQT’s Latest Proposal.
EQT was granted due diligence after bumping indictive terms to $15.91/share, up from an initial pitch of A$14.80/share. Its been crickets since EQT walked.
Now Blackstone has approached Iress, a trading and wealth management software provider. An indicative A$10.50/share cash Offer was tabled, but since withdrawn. Negotiations with Blackstone and Thoma Bravo are ongoing.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps and Declares Offer Unconditional

After betr Entertainment (BBT AU) bumped scrip terms for PointsBet (PBH AU), a logical course of action for Mixi (2121 JP) was to declare its Offer unconditional.
Now Mixi has bumped terms to A$1.25/share, from A$1.20/share; and declared its Offer unconditional. FIRB gave its nod on the 5th August.
Mixi has 28.2% of shares out, including 1.93% in the acceptance facility. “MIXI reserves the right to increase the offer price if it acquires more than 50% of PointsBet shares“.

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Aug 08

Most Read: Horizon Robotics, Lg Innotek, Artemis Gold , Technopro Holdings, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Core Concept Technologies Inc, Furukawa Battery, Softbank Group, Iress Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch
[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal – $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade
[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2025)
[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…
JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up
Iress (IRE AU): Blackstone Mulling a Privatisation Bid
BoE Cut Proves Finely Balanced

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch

There are 3 stocks in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in August and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
Short interest has increased in all 3 stocks since the resumption of short selling. Cumulative excess volume is higher in all stocks over the last couple of months.
Given the increase in shorts and positioning, there could be short covering in two of the three stocks. The third could still drop over the next couple of weeks.

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal – $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly. For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.
There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It’s a big deal.

[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities

This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2025 – maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP), Azoom (3496 JP) and Kitazato (368A JP) (recent IPO) were included in the TOPIX index at the end of July 2025.
Our long-term pre-event candidate Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) is getting close to meeting the key Section Transfer requirements.

[Japan M&A] Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) Take Private – Ugly Then, Ugly Still, But Now It’s On…

54 weeks ago Advantage Partners and Furukawa Electric announced a deal to take Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) sub Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) private. The acquisition price was LOW.
Minorities got more – more than book. But the deal included a payment delay allowing BVPS to rise 8.8% from the announcement date. No synergies.
Furukawa Electric gets to buy back in at a price below book. And because there are cash and securities and lots of net receivables, the operating assets are well below.

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.

Iress (IRE AU): Blackstone Mulling a Privatisation Bid

By Arun George

The AFR reports that Blackstone (BX US) is considering a privatisation bid which could value Iress Ltd (IRE AU) at about A$1.9 billion (more than A$10 per share).
Iress is no stranger to privatisation interest. In 2021, EQT (EQT SS) bid against itself thrice to offer A$15.91, before failing to table a binding proposal.
The shareholder structure facilitates an offer. The rumoured offer is a good starting point, but it is far from a knockout bid.

BoE Cut Proves Finely Balanced

By Phil Rush

Four MPC members refused to back the rate cut in August, and only one favoured a 50bp cut, but he was forced to vote for a 25bp cut to break the balanced 4:4 split.
The group favouring a slower pace of easing may have expanded from 5:4 to 6:3, raising the hurdle to another cut. Four don’t even support the prevailing level.
Inflation forecast revisions keep trending the profile higher. Rolling resilience in the broader data should keep the BoE on hold in November and beyond, like the ECB.

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Aug 07

Most Read: CG Power and Industrial Solutions, Horizon Robotics, Genting Bhd, Alibaba, Lg Innotek, Technopro Holdings, Soft99 Corp, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Infomedia Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August
Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch
[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
[Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough
Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up
A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks
Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.

Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

By Sumeet Singh

2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.

Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch

There are 3 stocks in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in August and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
Short interest has increased in all 3 stocks since the resumption of short selling. Cumulative excess volume is higher in all stocks over the last couple of months.
Given the increase in shorts and positioning, there could be short covering in two of the three stocks. The third could still drop over the next couple of weeks.

[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities

This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

[Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) is the owner/operator of a set of ubiquitous brands in aftermarket autocare. Anything to do with washing, cleaning, etc.
The company was founded 70 years ago, and the CEO is 54yrs old. Smells like succession planning.
This deal is a nice premium, but it is too light. The operating assets with consistent growth and 20% OPMs are being sold at <0.9x book. That’s bad.

Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up

The fall in Hisense Home Appliances Group (921 HK)‘s stock price over the last year puts it at risk of deletion from a global index in August.
Short interest and positioning have picked up in the stock over the last couple of weeks and there should be short covering against the passive selling.
The AH premium for Hisense Home Appliances Group could increase over the near-term as positioning continues ahead of the passive selling.

A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks

With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.
If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.
This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.

Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal

Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), a automotive software firm, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PE-outfit TPG.
TPG is offering A$1.72/share, a 30% premium to last close. The transaction requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of Infomedia’s boards.
As discussed in Infomedia (IFM AU): Now A Three-Way Hunt, Infomedia fielded various indicative Offers (including TA Associates/Viburnum, Battery Ventures, and Solera) in 2022, none of which went the distance.

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Aug 06

Most Read: BASE Inc, BayCurrent Consulting , Royal Gold Inc, Horizon Robotics, King Slide Works, Hoshizaki Corporation, Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, Technopro Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Genting Bhd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index
Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August
Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund
[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”
HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors
Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation

Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary.
This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn’t replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way

The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index

King Slide Works (2059 TT)‘s stock price has more than doubled over the last 4 months and that should result in global index inclusion in August.
King Slide Works (2059 TT) has outperformed its peer group over the last few months and now trades at a big valuation premium.
There has been a lot of short covering, and positioning in the stock appears to be smaller than the estimated passive buying.

Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August

Hoshizaki Corporation (6465 JP)‘s stock price has dropped over the last 3 months, and the lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August.
An early cutoff in the review period could result in the stock staying on in the index but that puts it at risk of deletion in November.
There has been an increase in short interest and cumulative excess volume over the last couple of months and that indicates positioning in the stock.

Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund

From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.
Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).
Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”

There was an article in mid-May saying Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) might be privatised. It is an appropriate candidate. The stock popped 20% immediately, and has since risen another 20%.
Today’s article follows one which came out ~2 weeks ago with non-sourced editorial content suggesting the price might be 20x EBITDA (i.e. a lot higher).
Today, an article says Blackstone will buy the firm for “Roughly ¥500bn” which would be 3% down from yesterday. Beware the Nikkei. Beware expectations.

HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The SEHK recently issued an update in response to its consultation paper in December 2025, with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
In this note, we summarize the conclusion by HKEx and the rules to be implemented.
We are of the view that overall, the changes will benefit ECM investors with greater certainty in allocations.

Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.

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Aug 05

Most Read: CG Power and Industrial Solutions, Laopu Gold, BayCurrent Consulting , Fujitec Co Ltd, Royal Gold Inc, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Softbank Group, Hoshizaki Corporation, Qi An Xin Technology Group , Thai Union Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings
[Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way
A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up
Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights
Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Final Expectations; New Pair Trades
Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) missed global index inclusion in May following completion of full circulation. The primary placement in May then improved chances of index inclusion in August.
The stock rose nearly 60% in the 2 months following the placement and has lost more than a third of its value from the peak in the last month.
The stock could be added to both global indices with one inclusion at the end of August and one in mid-September. That could provide short-term support for the stock.

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn’t replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.

[Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat

On 30 July, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) and Swedish PE Firm EQT announced a deal to acquire the company with the Uchiyama family. Two activists signed tender agreements.
The deal is not expensive IF you underwrite strong profitability growth and assume the large net receivables position can be better addressed.
But the stock is trading tight to terms and there are 6+ months until you get your money.

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way

The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up

AH premia up, erasing the previous week’s gains for Hs. “Beautiful Skew” continues in negative overall performance.
Last week I said “This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable.” This week it unwound some.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Softbank Group (9984 JP) Results on 7 Aug: Expected Move and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

SoftBank Group (9984 JP) reports Q1 FY2025 earnings on 7 August at 15:30 JST, with a conference call at 16:30 JST.
Highlights: SoftBank’s post-earnings moves are often sharp and unpredictable — with outliers above ±12%. Options markets flag the results day as a high-volatility event to watch.
Why Read: Essential for investors or options traders focused on Japan: Understand how timing, historic patterns and current volatility pricing shape both opportunity and risk around SoftBank earnings.

Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August

Hoshizaki Corporation (6465 JP)‘s stock price has dropped over the last 3 months, and the lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August.
An early cutoff in the review period could result in the stock staying on in the index but that puts it at risk of deletion in November.
There has been an increase in short interest and cumulative excess volume over the last couple of months and that indicates positioning in the stock.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Final Expectations; New Pair Trades

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we have presented our final predictions for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

Thai Union (TU TB): Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s Partial Tender

Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), currently holding 6.19% in Thai Union Group (TU TB), a global seafood leader, is seeking to lift its stake to 20% via a Partial Offer.
Mitsubishi is offering THB12.50/share for 532.27mn shares in Thai Union, or 13.81% of shares out (excluding treasuries), an outlay of ~US$200mn. If <13.81% tender, the Offer lapses.
Last month Mitsubishi expanded its salmon farming by acquiring additional businesses in Norway and Canada for ~US$1bn.

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Aug 04

Most Read: Ricoh Company Ltd, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, KT&G Corporation, Laopu Gold, SK Hynix, HKBN Ltd, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Cor, Krosaki Harima, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Dentsu Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August
India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices
Inside Samsung’s HBM3E Chicken Game
HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)
Krosaki Harima (5352 JP): Nippon Steel’s Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,200
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount
Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely

Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August

The slide in Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last couple of months and trades cheaper than the average of its peers.
There are indications of positioning in the stock. However, positioning is likely smaller than the estimated passive selling and there could be more downside for the stock near-term.

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.

60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets

Revisions to the draft are almost certain, but near-term flows will still trade off the current framework—so screening now helps front-run likely winners before the final version lands.
Out of 386 stocks with FY1/FY2 consensus data, 60 names screen in based on FY2: payout ≥40% or ≥25% with DPS up 5%+ vs. 3Y avg.
This tax reform will still drive near-term KOSPI flow—these screened names are core policy plays worth building setups around.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Potential Inclusion in Both Global Indices

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) missed global index inclusion in May following completion of full circulation. The primary placement in May then improved chances of index inclusion in August.
The stock rose nearly 60% in the 2 months following the placement and has lost more than a third of its value from the peak in the last month.
The stock could be added to both global indices with one inclusion at the end of August and one in mid-September. That could provide short-term support for the stock.

Inside Samsung’s HBM3E Chicken Game

Samsung’s playing its old game—sacrificing margins to shake rivals—aiming to disrupt DRAM and win HBM4, assuming it clears NVIDIA’s HBM3E qual test soon.
Local intel says no official word from Samsung yet, but the street thinks qual’s done—hence Samsung’s bold HBM3E tone and oversupply warning on the call.
There’s urgency—Samsung’s undercutting Hynix now to stop them from reinvesting cash into DRAM fab expansion, a playbook Samsung once dominated with.

HKBN (1310 HK): Pre-Cons Satisfied. Offer To Open Shortly

Almost exactly eight months after HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer, China Mobile (941 HK) has now satisfied all pre-cons.
The Offer Doc will be dispatched on or around the 12th August, at which time the Offer will be open for acceptances.
This could turn unconditional early September. Trading tight at a gross spread of 1.5%. Keep in mind a basket of peers are up 23% since the Offer was announced.

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Krosaki Harima (5352 JP): Nippon Steel’s Preconditional Tender Offer at JPY4,200

By Arun George

Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) has recommended a preconditional tender offer from Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP), the parent, at JPY4,200, a 21.7% premium to the last close price of JPY3,450.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the mid-point of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range.
The precondition relates to regulatory approvals in Japan and India. The tender offer is expected to start in early February 2026. This is a done deal.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Continued Opportunity to Short the ADR Premium
UMC: -0.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
ASE: -1.5% Discount; Historically Rare Discount Presents Opportunity to Long the ADR Spread

Dentsu Group (4324 JP): Global Index Deletion Likely