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• 2wks ago I said “a deal could be announced near-term.” 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful. 
• But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won’t. 
• The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.

• Toyota Industries (6201 JP) disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.
• While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation. 
• The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings. 

• There are 16 adds and 6 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$12.4bn.
• The ETF has started trading the stocks and are expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days. In reality, the process could drag on for some stocks.
• The index committee appears to have a little discretion in choosing the inclusions with one expected add not being added and one lower ranked stock being added to the index.

• The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
• The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

• There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
• If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
• Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.

• Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US). 
• Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
• There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).   

• Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette served a scheme termination notice. Mayne maintains that a material adverse clause was not breached and considers the termination notice invalid.
• The Cosette MAC breach claims likely hinge on establishing that forecasts provided during due diligence are materially lower than the unaudited management accounts. Precedents do not favour Mayne. 
• While the last close price (A$4.48) is below the undisturbed price (HK$5.41), there remains downside. My estimated deal break valuation range is A$3.26-A$4.00.

• Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
• Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
• The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.

• Section 899 is generally understood to be about leverage and deterrence.
• It is unlikely to be fully implemented due to the potential harm it could cause to the US.
• There are concerns about what could happen if the EU challenges this approach or if it is partially intended as a method to raise revenue.

• Now that Lee Jae-Myung has become new South Korean President, the uncertainty revolving who will lead South Korea in the next five years is now over.
• In this insight, we discuss four investment themes (related to Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President) that could outperform the market for the remainder of 2025.
• The four investment themes include Korean Holdcos/Quasi Holdcos, Korean Cultural Contents, Securities, and SK Group Companies.

• On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP). 
• The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies. 
• ¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

• The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 363bn (US$12.1bn).
• Following a change in methodology, there could be 16 adds and 6 deletes in June with an estimated one-way turnover of 39% and a round-trip trade of US$9bn.
• We expect the adds to outperform the deletes over the next few days, following which reversion could set in.

• Pasona Group (2168 JP) is a “value stock.” It has loads of cash (but less than you think) and significant ongoing governance issues, but they are doing a TINY buyback. 
• Several weeks ago we got an announcement which was odd. Not completely odd, just odd. Now in the past week we have market activity/announcements which make one wonder. 
• This piece attempts to interpret some of the recent data/info points. One is odd. Another is odd but meaningful (but different than people think). A third is just technical. 

• Toyota Industries (6201 JP) disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.
• While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation. 
• The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings. 

• 2wks ago I said “a deal could be announced near-term.” 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful. 
• But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won’t. 
• The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.

• The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
• The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

• There is 1 change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
• Passive trackers are estimated to buy 2.7x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) and sell 1.5x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH). 
• The delete has outperformed the inclusion this year. With 8 days left to implementation of the changes and decent impact, there could be a short-term reversal.

• There are 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.
• We correctly forecast 7/8 and 8/8 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 4/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
• Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 9.55bn (US$1.33bn).

• 0.052x P/B! That’s New World Development (17 HK)‘s current trailing  P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.
• What’s new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.
• NWD’s 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.

• Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from MBK Partners at JPY11,751, a 4.8% premium to last close and a 6.8% premium to Nidec’s withdrawn JPY11,000 offer.
• The offer is broadly in line with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The tender offer is expected to commence in early December.
• Despite the offer resulting from an auction, there remains a medium probability that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) or a spurned white knight bidder (Candidate A) emerges with a higher offer.

• Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) have executed a binding Combination Deed to implement an A$14bn merger that simplifies the company structure by eliminating crossholdings.
• The merger ratio is a good one for Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) shareholders and the benefits to both sets of shareholders should see the merger approved.
• There will be large passive buying in Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) from global and local index trackers and that could lead to short covering.

• The June rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 13 June.
• HealthyWay (2587 HK) will be added to the ETF while East Buy Holding (1797 HK) will be deleted. The passive trading will offer an opportunity to exit positions.
• There is a huge lock-up expiry in HealthyWay (2587 HK) on 30 June and the stock could drop ahead of that. Then it could drop some more after lock-up expiry.

• Today, I was the first analyst to gain access to ESR (1821 HK)‘s lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports under s329 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
• This is the same register discussed in Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM and L’Occitane (973 HK): Who Owns What, And When
• It is also used by proxy solicitors. My takeaway, still, is that this Offer is a done deal. But yes; there are a few shareholder activists lurking in the register. 

• The cross-shareholding between Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) (Soul Patts) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) was established in 1969 to defend the companies from corporate raiders.
• Perpetual pursued a case in the Federal Court of Australia, alleging that the cross-shareholding was oppressive to minority shareholders; however the claim was dismissed in 2017.
• Today, via inter-conditional Schemes, the circularity is set to be unwound through a merger. Soul Patts currently owns 43.3% in Brickworks, and Brickworks 26% in Soul Patts. 

• Buybacks in Japan are becoming a much greater driver of shareholder return than in previous years. The total amount of buybacks announced just during the March-end earnings season cleared ¥7trln.
• Quiddity has developed a buyback tool which tracks Japanese buybacks and the buyback history for any given company. Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) announced a big post-Offering buyback this week.
• Want to see how Isuzu has executed buybacks the past decade? Daily data? % volume? You can check here for any of the 21 companies which announced buybacks this week. 

• There are 7 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 June.
• There are 240 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$12bn.
• The adds have outperformed the deletes for the CSI 300 Index and the CSI 1000 Index but underperformed for the CSI 500 Index.

• Pasona Group (2168 JP) is a “value stock.” It has loads of cash (but less than you think) and significant ongoing governance issues, but they are doing a TINY buyback. 
• Several weeks ago we got an announcement which was odd. Not completely odd, just odd. Now in the past week we have market activity/announcements which make one wonder. 
• This piece attempts to interpret some of the recent data/info points. One is odd. Another is odd but meaningful (but different than people think). A third is just technical. 

• The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 363bn (US$12.1bn).
• Following a change in methodology, there could be 16 adds and 6 deletes in June with an estimated one-way turnover of 39% and a round-trip trade of US$9bn.
• We expect the adds to outperform the deletes over the next few days, following which reversion could set in.

• There has been an increasing speculation of HD Hyundai increasing its stake in HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) in 2025. 
• There are two main reasons why HD Hyundai could increase its stake in HD KSOE. 
• They include HD KSOE contributing higher percentage of dividend income and continued full-fledged recovery of the operating profits of the HD HHI and HD Hyundai Mipo. 

• There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June.
• There will be capping inflows for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), capping outflows for SK Hynix (000660 KS) and funding outflows for the other index constituents.
• A long adds/ short deletes trade has performed well historically for the FnGuide Top 10 Index with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

• There is one constituent change for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in June with AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) replacing Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH).
• Passive trackers will need to buy 0.15x ADV in AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) and sell 0.4x ADV in Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH). 
• AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) is a CSI 500 Index to CSI 300 Index migration in June, so there will be more buying in the stock.

• Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) had a giant oopsie in 2018-2021 where they lost ¥180bn over three years because of defective construction requiring repairs. 
• Murakami and others got involved. Leopalace got financing from FIG (shares/SARs/loan), Murakami bailed. Eventually Hikari Tsushin got in. Leopalace got FIG out of their loan, doing a refi through Mizuho.
• Cash was up, cashflow is strong. Business is changed/revived. Now Leopalace is buying back SARs it sold to FIG. FIG will still own 26%. The future is potentially interesting. Still. 

• There are 4 changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) and 18 changes for the SSE180 Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
• The SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) deletes were in line with forecasts, and the index committee has used some discretion while picking the index inclusions.
• The SSE50 Index adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be a further move higher in the ‘surprise’ adds to the index.

• CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 30 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
• There are 6 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.7-2.4x ADV in the adds and passive selling of between 1-4.7x ADV in the deletes.
• There will be capping inflows for Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH) and capping outflows for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH). 

• Buybacks in Japan are becoming a much greater driver of shareholder return than in previous years. The total amount of buybacks announced just during the March-end earnings season cleared ¥7trln.
• Quiddity has developed a buyback tool which tracks Japanese buybacks and the buyback history for any given company. Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) announced a big post-Offering buyback this week.
• Want to see how Isuzu has executed buybacks the past decade? Daily data? % volume? You can check here for any of the 21 companies which announced buybacks this week. 

• The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 30 May and will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
• Northeast Securities (000686 CH) will be added to the index while Harbin Hatou Investment Co, Ltd. (600864 CH) will be deleted.
• There is over 2.5x ADV to trade in both stocks and much smaller impact of funding/capping flows on the other index constituents.

• The June rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 13 June.
• HealthyWay (2587 HK) will be added to the ETF while East Buy Holding (1797 HK) will be deleted. The passive trading will offer an opportunity to exit positions.
• There is a huge lock-up expiry in HealthyWay (2587 HK) on 30 June and the stock could drop ahead of that. Then it could drop some more after lock-up expiry.

• Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) have executed a binding Combination Deed to implement an A$14bn merger that simplifies the company structure by eliminating crossholdings.
• The merger ratio is a good one for Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) shareholders and the benefits to both sets of shareholders should see the merger approved.
• There will be large passive buying in Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) from global and local index trackers and that could lead to short covering.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Smart Share Global (EM US). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Dada Nexus (DADA US), Spartan Resources (SPR AU), Nissin Corp (9066 JP), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), Nippon Road (1884 JP).    

• There are 3 adds and 4 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June. There are changes driven by changes to the sector classification for stocks.
• Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.2-0.65x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.15-1.75x ADV in the deletes.
• The deletes have outperformed the adds over the last few months and some of that could dissipate over the next couple of weeks.

• To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
• The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
• The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.

• There could be 18 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the June rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 1.7% and the round-trip trade is around US$1bn.
• The index was launched in September 2024, and the passive trackers have taken in a chunk of money since then. The flows to the stocks add to other index flows.
• A long add/short deletes trade has been stable over the last few months. The forecast adds could outperform following announcement of the index changes on Friday.

• There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
• The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.

• There is one constituent change for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in June with AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) replacing Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH).
• Passive trackers will need to buy 0.15x ADV in AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) and sell 0.4x ADV in Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH). 
• AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co (302132 CH) is a CSI 500 Index to CSI 300 Index migration in June, so there will be more buying in the stock.

• CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 30 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
• There are 6 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.7-2.4x ADV in the adds and passive selling of between 1-4.7x ADV in the deletes.
• There will be capping inflows for Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH) and capping outflows for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH). 

• CATL’s options debut in Hong Kong has been active, with strong Call interest and rising open interest suggesting early investor enthusiasm.
• Implied vols are holding firm post-listing and appear rich —potentially justifiable given the trading dynamics and catalysts.
• We recommend a tactical hedge structure that skews return favourably, targeting recent highs and protecting against downside drift.

• With a 5-week rally China Mobile (941 HK) is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.
• Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.
• This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.

• The June 2025 index review results for China’s SSE 50 and SSE 180 indices were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
• There will be 4 ADDs/DELs for SSE 50 and 18 ADDs/DELs for SSE 180.
• The SSE 50 and SSE 180 index rebal events could trigger US$1.3bn and US$210mn in one-way flows, respectively.

• TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
• 286 new CGRs filed since 1-May-25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
• The JPX Council of Experts met on 22 April. Mgmt Conscious updates came this month. Parent-sub follow-ups in Fall/Winter 2025. Slow. ‘Going Private’ policy is under public comment now.

• In this insight, we provide 3 major fundamental criteria for screening major Korean F&B companies. 
• Three major criteria include 3 years CAGR revenue growth of 5% or more, increase in net margin in 2024, and overseas sales more than 10% of total sales.
• Of the 30 Korean F&B companies mentioned in this insight, only six companies meet these criteria including Samyang Foods, Orion Corp, Hitejinro, Lotte Wellfood, Daesang Corporation, and Pulmuone.

• There could be 3 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are some fairly large capping changes for some stocks.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$5.4bn (US$694m). The impact on the deletes will be a lot larger than the impact on the adds.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the near-term, though the trade has been quite volatile over the medium term.

• In my stub monitor flagged in StubWorld: Toyota Industries/Motors, GMO Internet, I see Melco International Development (200 HK) is trading “cheap” to Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US).
• Last month, Melco proposed one new rights share for two existing shares at a subscription price of HK$1.0286/share, a 72.93% discount to undisturbed, and a 64.28% discount to the TERP.
• Lawrence Ho will backstop ~54% of the rights, if need be. Depending on the level of support for the rights, expect Lawrence to further chip away against minorities.

• There could be 18 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the June rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 1.7% and the round-trip trade is around US$1bn.
• The index was launched in September 2024, and the passive trackers have taken in a chunk of money since then. The flows to the stocks add to other index flows.
• A long add/short deletes trade has been stable over the last few months. The forecast adds could outperform following announcement of the index changes on Friday.

• To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
• The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
• The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.

• There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
• The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.

• There are 9 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) in June. Most of the adds and all of the deletes were forecast.
• The index committee have used their discretion and kept Fadu (440110 KS) and Snh Inc (051980 KS) out of the index for yet another rebalance – no reason provided.
• There’s been little movement in the relative performance of the adds/deletes the last few months. The announcement of the changes could see the stocks move over the next few weeks.

• There will be 8 additions and 8 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 June.
• The inclusion of Korea District Heating (071320 KS) is a surprise and leads to an extra deletion – all the other adds are exactly in line with forecasts.
• The list of adds has been stable for the last few months and the stocks have outperformed the deletes and the KOSPI2 INDEX since the start of the review period.

• Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Austria’s Novomatic, Ainsworth’s largest shareholder (52.9%). A from Offer has been long rumoured.
• Novomatic is offering A$1.00/share (best & final), a 35% premium to last close. The Offer does NOT require FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards.
• Expect shareholder pushback. The Offer consideration is 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.

• There could be 1 constituent change (maybe 2) for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in June. The announcement of the potential change will be made after market close on Friday.
• Anker Innovations Technology could replace Suzhou Maxwell Technologies in the index. If AVIC Chengdu Aircraft is added to the index, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment could be deleted.
• Anker Innovations Technology could have opposite flow and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies could have same way flow from passive trackers of other indices on the same day.

• June’s rebalance brings rare moves in key sector indices: HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) joins Heavy Industry, while Cosmo AM&T (005070 KS) exits IT.
• TIGER flows on June 12 may hit KRW 6B (HD Marine) and KRW 4B (Cosmo), implying 0.3–0.6x DTV impact — notable given both names’ low liquidity.
• KOSPI 200 flows may fade early, but TIGER sector flows remain stealthy, raising odds of flow-driven price action on June 12 — a potential long-short day trade setup.

• The buying in Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) over the last couple of days has dragged Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) higher as the arbs trade the AH spread.
• The Fast Entry into a global index could keep CATL (3750 HK) supported over the next few trading days, but reality will take hold pretty soon.
• Short CATL (3750 HK) / long CATL (300750 CH) offers great risk/reward, while an outright CATL (3750 HK) short offers higher return albeit at a much higher level of risk.

• Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) has an interesting background, embroiled in a separate activist event via its equity affiliate sponsor Dic Corp (4631 JP), and recently an activist target itself. 
• Today a Bloomberg article said KKR and one other PE fund had made acquisition proposals via TOB. Taiyo confirmed, establishing a Special Committee. A deal is months away, at earliest.
• Shares shot up to limit up, opened briefly, then resumed at limit up. The question here and now is valuation. 

• Late Nov-2024, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) was trading ¥2,900, weekly mag Bunshun scooped a possible NTT Docomo deal. The stock popped, I was skeptical. It popped more.
• At Q3 earnings, NTT seemed to downplay the possibility saying they wouldn’t overpay. SBI Sumshin fell. Then fell some more. 
• Today we get a deal whereby NTT buys out SBI Holdings (8473 JP)‘s 34% stake, and minorities, and partners with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust. Then a side deal with SBI. 

• Today after the close, GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) subsidiary GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP) announced its subsidiary GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP) would move to TSE Prime 5 June.
• That means it moves to TOPIX at the close of trading 30 July 2025.
• This growth stock appears to have “de-growthed” somewhat in stock price terms – trading near its IPO price from covid era, so it is worth a look.

• There could be 1 constituent change (maybe 2) for the STAR&CHINEXT 50 Index in June. The announcement of the potential change will be made after market close on Friday.
• Anker Innovations Technology could replace Suzhou Maxwell Technologies in the index. If AVIC Chengdu Aircraft is added to the index, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment could be deleted.
• Anker Innovations Technology could have opposite flow and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies could have same way flow from passive trackers of other indices on the same day.

• In line with the trend of financial institutions led by non-life insurers selling out of their cross-holdings, today we get an offering of shares held in Isuzu Motors (7202 JP). 
• Today we got an announcement of 29.28mm shares being offered by a dozen financial institutions and a greenshoe for 15% more. At a 10% discount from here it’s ¥57bn/US$400mm.
• It is 16 days of ADV, which is big, but the company also announced a ¥50bn buyback from Pricing+6 to end of March 2026. That should stabilise things.

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Sasseur REIT’s CFO, Mr. Xie Jianfeng, Head of Asset Management, Mr. Cheng Hsing Yuen, and Head of Investor Relations & Capital Markets, Ms. Helen Qiu.

In the upcoming webinar, the Sasseur REIT team will share a short company presentation after which, they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Garreth Elston. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 June 2025, 16:30 SGT.

About Sasseur REIT

Sasseur REIT is the first retail outlet mall REIT listed in Asia. Sasseur REIT offers investors
the unique opportunity to invest in the fast-growing retail outlet mall sector in China through
its initial portfolio of four quality retail outlet mall assets strategically located in fast-growing
Chinese cities such as Chongqing, Kunming and Hefei, with a combined net lettable area of
310,241 square metres.

Sasseur REIT is established with the investment strategy to invest principally, directly or
indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for
retail outlet mall purposes, as well as real estate-related assets in relation to the foregoing,
with an initial focus on Asia.

You can view their latest factsheet here.

For more information on Sasseur REIT, please visit http://www.sasseurreit.com/

• KRX sector indices use TMI as their universe, while KOSPI cap-tier indices use all KOSPI-listed stocks, creating a key difference in universe selection.
• KRX sector indices rebalance annually after September expiry, using September TMI (reviewed end-July) as their universe—not the June version, despite common confusion.
• Pre-Positioning is uncertain; market likely waits for August’s September TMI results before building positions. KOSPI cap indices use August review date, with similar flow patterns starting six weeks prior.

• A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$380m via selling around 4% of Isuzu Motors (7202 JP).
• Being another cross-shareholding unwind in Japan, it shouldn’t carry much negative connotations, in our view.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
• The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
• The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.

• There should be 5 changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. Most changes are due to missing dividend forecasts for constituent stocks.
• Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.6% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 157bn (US$5.2bn).
• There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan dividend yield weighted indices and presents some interesting trading opportunities.

• There could be 3 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are some fairly large capping changes for some stocks.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$5.4bn (US$694m). The impact on the deletes will be a lot larger than the impact on the adds.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the near-term, though the trade has been quite volatile over the medium term.

• In December, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) made an unsolicited bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Makino wanted more time. Nidec wanted to squeeze.  Makino proposed a poison pill.
• Makino appeared to act slowly but white knight bidders were mooted in the media. Nidec launched, but apparently approvals may have been hard. They withdrew. Makino cancelled the poison pill. 
• Shares fell sharply. Yesterday, they rose because it appears Effissimo owns 3%. Today, we got news post-close that MBK may be close to making an ¥11,000+ bid.

• AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
• It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) has an interesting background, embroiled in a separate activist event via its equity affiliate sponsor Dic Corp (4631 JP), and recently an activist target itself. 
• Today a Bloomberg article said KKR and one other PE fund had made acquisition proposals via TOB. Taiyo confirmed, establishing a Special Committee. A deal is months away, at earliest.
• Shares shot up to limit up, opened briefly, then resumed at limit up. The question here and now is valuation. 

• Hong Kong’s IPO market has gathered momentum lately, especially with the overwhelming response to CATL (3750 HK). Consumer IPOs are the next ones to gather interest. 
• Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Co (FHF HK) is the most imminent one, potentially seeking up to US$1bn. Without significant peers in Hong Kong, it should attract good attention.
• The other interesting ones include Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH), Three Squirrels (TRS HK), and Eastroc Beverage Group (EBG HK). 

• Dual-Listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Johannesburg-based Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
• Harmony is offering A$18.93/share (US$12.25/share), a 20.7% premium to last close, or a A$1.6bn/US$1.03bn value. The A$ consideration pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate. The Offer requires FIRB signing off. 
• The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards, and also has the backing from shareholders holding 20.1% of shares out. Implementation is October/November. This may need more gruel.

• Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) shares were up 19.1% based on a Bloomberg report that it received privatisation proposals from KKR and Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko. 
• Taiyo confirmed that it has received privatisation offers. The Board would view privatisation as a solution to rid itself of Oasis, which has recently waged an activist campaign. 
• At the last close price of JPY6,230, Oasis would be up 45.9% on its highest price of JPY4,720. My analysis suggests that an offer around JPY7,000 can be justified.

• CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR SP)  is looking to raise at least S$500M in a private placement, to fund the acquisition of some valuable properties. 
• These acquisitions will expand the firm’s portfolio exposure to Singapore and data centers.
• In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Nufarm (NUF AU), an agricultural chemical company , is down ~40% since it announced a 39.5% decline in 1H25 profit. The share price is at the lowest level since Covid. 
• Concurrent with this results, Nufarm announced a review of its seed technology ops. Reportedly Advanta, BP – amongst others- are vying for the est. A$900mn business.   
• Elsewhere, it is being reported that key shareholders recommend the Nufarm board explore a full takeover. 

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. Then there will be passive buying at the close on 20 June.
• The lock up expiry in April will result in large buying from trackers of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and HSIII Index in September.
• The stock will also be added to another large global index, though the timing on inclusion is not certain at the moment.

• There should be 5 changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. Most changes are due to missing dividend forecasts for constituent stocks.
• Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.6% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 157bn (US$5.2bn).
• There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan dividend yield weighted indices and presents some interesting trading opportunities.

• There could be 18 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the June rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 1.7% and the round-trip trade is around US$1bn.
• The index was launched in September 2024, and the passive trackers have taken in a chunk of money since then. The flows to the stocks add to other index flows.
• A long add/short deletes trade has been stable over the last few months. The forecast adds could outperform following announcement of the index changes on Friday.

• In December, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) made an unsolicited bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Makino wanted more time. Nidec wanted to squeeze.  Makino proposed a poison pill.
• Makino appeared to act slowly but white knight bidders were mooted in the media. Nidec launched, but apparently approvals may have been hard. They withdrew. Makino cancelled the poison pill. 
• Shares fell sharply. Yesterday, they rose because it appears Effissimo owns 3%. Today, we got news post-close that MBK may be close to making an ¥11,000+ bid.

• There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
• The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.

• Ursula von der Leyen had a call with Donald Trump on 25 May.
• The call can be interpreted as a ‘win’ for Trump as he had threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU from 1 June.
• Another perspective could be that Trump’s reversion is a new manifestation of the TACO principle.

• There could be 3 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are some fairly large capping changes for some stocks.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$5.4bn (US$694m). The impact on the deletes will be a lot larger than the impact on the adds.
• The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the near-term, though the trade has been quite volatile over the medium term.

• Via 49.9%-held MPIC, First Pacific Co (142 HK) is spinning off Maynilad, a provider of water and wastewater services in the Greater Manila Area, on the Philippine Stock Exchange
• Maynilad will tentatively have a market cap of US$2.7bn. Other key investors include DMCI Holdings (DMC PM) and Marubeni Corp (8002 JP). Listing is expected in July.
• I see First Pac’s discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade. 

• In response to a Nikkei article, Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) confirmed it had received a legally binding acquisition proposal from MBK Partners. 
• The price is expected to exceed Nidec Corp (6594 JP) JPY11,000 hostile offer. On 8 May, Nidec withdrew its offer due to the Board’s proposed countermeasures. 
• My analysis suggests that MBK’s white knight bid could be JPY11,677 per share, 13.7% higher than the last close price of JPY10,270.

• June rebal results are mostly in line, but Korea District Heating’s add and PI Advanced Materials’s drop surprised; Fadu missed KQ150 likely on KRX’s qual screen.
• As for Value-up Index, KRX avoided bold calls like cutting Samsung Electronics or Hanwha Aerospace, favoring stability over surprises—though this may further blur the Value-up Index’s purpose and spark criticism.
• June’s KRX rebalance flow looks muted amid macro noise and politics; expect punchier post-announcement trading but watch for momentum to fade about a week before June 13.

• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. Then there will be passive buying at the close on 20 June.
• The lock up expiry in April will result in large buying from trackers of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and HSIII Index in September.
• The stock will also be added to another large global index, though the timing on inclusion is not certain at the moment.

• Following shareholder approval of the proposal to reduce the Foreign Ownership Limit from 100% to 49.5%, NSDL has updated the FOL. This starts the process of passive selling in Zomato.
• Passives will sell US$350m at the close on Tuesday. There is a low probability of more selling later in the week. There will be bigger selling in August.
• The size of the selling in August and beyond will depend on what foreign investors do in the stock till the end of June. Watch the red flag/ breach list.

• Elite Material (2383 TT)‘s stock price has soared recently and is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in June, replacing Unimicron Technology (3037 TT). 
• Passive trackers will have 1 day of ADV to buy in Elite Material (2383 TT) and over 1 day of ADV to sell in Unimicron Technology (3037 TT). 
• However, Elite Material is at risk of deletion from another ETF where the impact of passive selling is a lot bigger. Tricky interplay between the two ETFs.

• This morning the Nikkei reported shareholders of Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) approved their Merger. Activists opposed but it was going to be close at best.
• As expected, Welcia shares popped, and the spread converged to 2% with Tsuruha falling back to just below ¥11,400. Some of this is unwind of speculative interest in Tsuruha.  
• The new yuhos are out, which shows roughly where we stand (as of end-Feb, and some updates). Now the trade is NEWCO vs Aeon’s interest and NEWCO vs World.

• There could be 1 change each for the STAR Chip Index and CNI Semiconductor Chips Index, and 3 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index in June.
• There are a few stocks that will have same-way flow from passive trackers of the STAR50 INDEX, STAR 100 Index, CSI 500 Index, CSI 1000 Index and CSI A500 Index. 
• The round-trip trade across the indices is CNY 2.9bn (US$400m) and will add to the impact across the other China indices that rebalance on the same day.

• Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) has for years been “undervalued” and owned by value-oriented actively-managed fund managers. Under-used real estate and IP assets. Lack of governance regarding capital. 
• A Shukan Bunshun article in Dec-2024 reported a former boy band SMAP member and Fuji TV regular made a big payment to an unidentified woman after a June 2023 “incident.”
• Fuji TV hemmed and hawed about its involvement. Advertisers bolted. Activists activisted. The chairman resigned. Now Major Activist Dalton has a director slate for the AGM. What Next?

• There should be 5 changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. Most changes are due to missing dividend forecasts for constituent stocks.
• Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.6% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 157bn (US$5.2bn).
• There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan dividend yield weighted indices and presents some interesting trading opportunities.

• After Goldlion (533 HK)‘s spectacular Scheme fail, Soundwill  (878 HK) appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.
• Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill’s Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.
• Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. 

• There could be 18 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the June rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 1.7% and the round-trip trade is around US$1bn.
• The index was launched in September 2024, and the passive trackers have taken in a chunk of money since then. The flows to the stocks add to other index flows.
• A long add/short deletes trade has been stable over the last few months. The forecast adds could outperform following announcement of the index changes on Friday.

• The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
• Today is the base date for the final ranks and we see five ADDs and five DELs.
• We estimate one-way flow to be around US$2.55bn with multiple expected ADDs having 10x ADV or more to trade.