Most Read

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week

Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes for a few stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$208m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The index has been in a secular downtrend over the last few years and there have been big redemptions from ETFs tracking the index.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank Tabungan Negara Persero, Adaro Energy and Bukalapak.com PT Tbk.
There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.

Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool 🥳

Fujitsu Earnings. Revenues +2.1%, OP +77.5%, Pretax +65.1%, Net -13.0% (basis effect from FY23 one-offs). Forecast? Revs -2.8%, OP/adj +35.8%/+17.2%, Net/adj +77.4%/+3.7%. All guided measures shy vs the Street consensus.
The company presented a progress update on its Medium-Term Management Plan. Core profits are better. Things are improving.
The company also announced a big 11-month ¥170bn buyback. Last year’s was ¥180bn (completed 24 March). Worth checking out the details (and our brand-new buyback tool)

[Quiddity Index Apr25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: 6 ADDs and 6 DELETEs

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
We expect six ADDs and six DELs for the KOSPI 200 index during this index rebal event based on the latest available data.

YAGEO and Shibaura Still Fighting, Minebea Likely to Bid Up, The Question Is Another YAGEO Overbid

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) bid ¥4,300 for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) overbid at ¥4,500. YAGEO overbid Minebea at ¥5,400 on 17 April (expected to start 7-May)
Apparently, YAGEO was a bit upset by the public comments by Shibaura regarding custom/mass-market/online different ways of doing business. YAGEO responded with receipts. Shibaura will respond later.
On the 22nd, Minebea noted they would delay their intended 23rd start date. Now they have more irrevocables. In the end, I expect YAGEO’s, not Minebea’s, top price defines this.

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) Recycles Nine Floors Of One Exchange Square

In a rare move, Jardine Matheson (JM SP)-controlled Hongkong Land (HKL SP) has sold nine floors (147,025 square feet) of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK) for HK$6.3bn (US$810mn).
HKL plans to use the proceeds to provide enhancements to the property sold, the reduction of net debt; and for a share buyback. Shares are up 9% as I type.
HKL is focussed on divesting US$4bn to US$6bn of its balance sheet assets in the next three years. HKL’s CEO Michael Smith: “Recycling capital is our top priority right now“.

HLB Merger Arb Setup: How Cancellation Risk Could Lead to Extra Profits

We go long on HLB LS, short on HLB Inc, and close the short once HLB LS converts. If the deal falls through, there’s potential for extra profits.
The view that the merger’s worse for HLB LS is gaining support, making it likely the spread could go negative, though there’s risk, the chances are pretty high.
The 4% spread is the floor for arb profit, and cancellation risk could add extra gains. This angle deserves serious consideration right now.

SK Telecom’s Block Deal Sale of 10.8 Million Shares of Kakao Corp

Prior to market open on 25 April, SK Telecom announced that it plans to sell 10.8 million shares of Kakao, representing 2.4% of outstanding shares in a block deal sale.
The sale of Kakao Corp shares and using the proceeds to further acquire shares in SK Broadband and invest in AI businesses is a solid move by SK Telecom.
We believe that this trading down gap of Kakao Corp is likely to be covered soon in the next several days/weeks so it represents a short term buying opportunity.

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Apr 25

Most Read: Panasonic Corp, Evolution Mining, Samsung C&T, Pop Mart International Group L, Fujitsu Ltd, Kakao Corp, DN Solutions, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Gunma Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week
Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies
Korea Dems’ Surprise Proposal: Separate Tax for Dividends Over 35% Payout
Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults?
Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool 🥳
Kakao Corp Placement – Momentum Isn’t Great but It Is a Small Deal
DN Solutions IPO – Tariffs, Peer Correction Don’t Help
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes
Gunma Bank (8334 JP): Daishi Hokuetsu (7327 JP) Share Exchange to Establish a Top Regional Bank
DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week

Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes for a few stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$208m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The index has been in a secular downtrend over the last few years and there have been big redemptions from ETFs tracking the index.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

Korea Dems’ Surprise Proposal: Separate Tax for Dividends Over 35% Payout

The bill submitted by the Democratic Party today highlights that separate taxation on dividend income applies only to dividends from companies with a 35% payout ratio or higher.
We might see re-rating on dividend stocks with solid cash flow but below 35%, especially banks over telcos. Holdcos like Samsung C&T, LG, and Hyundai Glovis could attract attention too.
Dark horses like NAVER, with earnings potential, and Samsung Electronics, currently at 25%, could attract attention if they increase payouts to 35%.

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Eye-Popping Growth. Is It the Next Pokémon for Kidults?

By Devi Subhakesan

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) ’s stock has nearly doubled in three months, fueled by surging revenue and the breakout popularity of its Labubu dolls.
Driven by strong international expansion and solid omni-channel demand in its home market, Pop Mart reported over 165% revenue growth in 1Q2025 compared to the same period last year.
Investors remain split on whether Pop Mart’s unconventional products and marketing are driven by lasting fandom or just a passing trend.

Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool 🥳

Fujitsu Earnings. Revenues +2.1%, OP +77.5%, Pretax +65.1%, Net -13.0% (basis effect from FY23 one-offs). Forecast? Revs -2.8%, OP/adj +35.8%/+17.2%, Net/adj +77.4%/+3.7%. All guided measures shy vs the Street consensus.
The company presented a progress update on its Medium-Term Management Plan. Core profits are better. Things are improving.
The company also announced a big 11-month ¥170bn buyback. Last year’s was ¥180bn (completed 24 March). Worth checking out the details (and our brand-new buyback tool)

Kakao Corp Placement – Momentum Isn’t Great but It Is a Small Deal

By Sumeet Singh

SK Telecom (017670 KS) plans to raise around US$280m via selling its 2%+ stake in Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
Kakao’s recent performance hasn’t been particularly great and the stock has been suffering even since the Kakao Pay management scandal in 2021.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

DN Solutions IPO – Tariffs, Peer Correction Don’t Help

By Sumeet Singh

DN Solutions (298440 KS) (DNS) aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its Korea IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
DNS is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine tools and the business of automation solutions and services related thereto.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank Tabungan Negara Persero, Adaro Energy and Bukalapak.com PT Tbk.
There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.

Gunma Bank (8334 JP): Daishi Hokuetsu (7327 JP) Share Exchange to Establish a Top Regional Bank

Gunma Bank (8334 JP) and Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)/DHFG have announced an MoU to establish one of the largest regional banks in Japan by 1 April 2027.
The transaction involves delisting Gunma through a share exchange with DHFG. A definitive agreement is expected around March 2026.
The plan is long-dated. The lack of a controlling shareholder necessitates a “fair” exchange ratio. My estimated Gunma/DHFG exchange ratio range is 0.38-0.39x.

DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience

By Phil Rush

President Trump is restructuring the US state through tariff funding and efficiency savings. The former dominates focus, but we also see no evidence of problematic cuts.
Jobless claims are low and stable, including among federal workers and in states with the highest federal workforce shares. Government job openings haven’t even fallen.
DOGE cuts are often multi-year and in grants to others. It may have helped the deficit, and the efficiency is fundamentally desirable. Concerns about it still seem overblown.

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Apr 24

Most Read: Northern Star Resources, IHI Corp, LG Energy Solution, Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering, GMO Internet, KC Tech, Jafco Co Ltd, Evolution Mining, Panasonic Corp, Trent Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
Trading LG Chem’s Large-Scale EB Issuance Backed by LG Energy Shares
CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June
StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Will Be Squeezy. Until It’s Not.
A Tender Offer of 6.2% Stake in KC Tech by KC Co
JAFCO (8595) Good Results, Higher Div, Buyback, More Plans; Not Quite There, But Maybe Will Be Later
Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies
Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week
Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: Pair Trade Delivers Strong Alpha; More Pair Trade Ideas

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI Corp (7013 JP) has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.
IHI Corp (7013 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.
The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.

Trading LG Chem’s Large-Scale EB Issuance Backed by LG Energy Shares

With a $2B deal expected, LG Chem will likely issue before end June as the 2023 EB’s put date nears and redemption pressure builds amid strained financials.
Two years ago, hedge shorting spiked post-issuance and post-exchange start, but price impact was mild—only 3% and 6% drops—likely due to strong sector sentiment then.
Sector sentiment’s turned sharply, so more aggressive price action is likely post-EB announcement. Timing is tricky, but the setup’s worth watching closely.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes in June

The review period ends on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 0.5-2x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.7-3.8x ADV in the deletes.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months and there could be outperformance as we near the end of the review period and announcement.

StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Will Be Squeezy. Until It’s Not.

Negligible float, 150x+ forward earnings – yes, investors can afford NOT to have GMO Internet (4784 JP) in their portfolio.
Preceding my comments on the GMO group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

A Tender Offer of 6.2% Stake in KC Tech by KC Co

After the market close today, it was reported that KC Co (029460 KS) plans to conduct a tender offer 35 billion won worth of KC Tech (281820 KS) shares.
KC Co plans to conduct a tender offer of 1.283 million shares (6.2% stake) of KC Tech shares for 20 days from 23 April to 12 May.
The tender offer price for KC Tech is 27,100 won, which is 13.4% higher than the closing price on 22 April.

JAFCO (8595) Good Results, Higher Div, Buyback, More Plans; Not Quite There, But Maybe Will Be Later

At noon today, Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) announced full year (to March 2025) results. Revenues were up 21.4% this year, OP +49.7%, and Net Income +27.8%.
The company announced a ¥5bn buyback, and also announced a new dividend policy of 6% DOE or 50% payout ratio. As it is a markets business, there is no guidance.
The stock popped significantly in the PM session, but the market zeitgeist is a tailwind. And there is supportive new news.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

Evolution Mining‘s stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.
Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week

Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes for a few stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$208m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The index has been in a secular downtrend over the last few years and there have been big redemptions from ETFs tracking the index.

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun25: Pair Trade Delivers Strong Alpha; More Pair Trade Ideas

In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
There could be three ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and eight ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.

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Apr 23

Most Read: Northern Star Resources, Sanrio, GMO Internet, Hanwha Aerospace, Swiggy, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Electronics, LG Energy Solution, IHI Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float
Hanwha Aero: Base Case Is the Raise Goes Through
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This Is A Buy
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Secures Further Irrevocables as It Ponders a Revised Offer
Trading LG Chem’s Large-Scale EB Issuance Backed by LG Energy Shares
IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s stock price dropped following the placement announcement in November. Then there was a rally in the stock amid increased volatility.
The placement resulted in an increase in free float and the move higher in the stock could lead to Sanrio (8136 JP) being added to a global index in May.
There is positioning in the stock but a lot of that appears to have been taken off in the last month. The stock could move higher depending on global cues.

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float

Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP) has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the “internet infrastructure business” of GMO Internet (9449 JP).
It was a kind of reverse takeover – a backdoor listing – and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.
The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.

Hanwha Aero: Base Case Is the Raise Goes Through

FSS has quietly greenlit Hanwha Aero’s raise — current pushback is just optics, with defense being too strategic for regulators to risk sending the wrong signal.
Hanwha Aero’s second updated filing should check the FSS box, and Hanwha Energy swapping cash for equity gives regulators cover to bless the deal without catching heat.
Base case is the raise goes through — trade the window between the amended filing and effective date, and shorts can still join the deal if they cover in time.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This Is A Buy

On the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne’s two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.
Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Secures Further Irrevocables as It Ponders a Revised Offer

In response to Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s revised JPY5,400 offer, Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) has asked Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) if it intends to revise its terms.
Minebea is reviewing its offer and has disclosed additional irrevocables from the founder’s family and MUFG. Total irrevocables represent a 15.83% ownership ratio.
On April 22, Yageo issued a public letter to change the narrative regarding the Board’s concerns. There is an increasing likelihood that Minebea will return with a revised offer.

Trading LG Chem’s Large-Scale EB Issuance Backed by LG Energy Shares

With a $2B deal expected, LG Chem will likely issue before end June as the 2023 EB’s put date nears and redemption pressure builds amid strained financials.
Two years ago, hedge shorting spiked post-issuance and post-exchange start, but price impact was mild—only 3% and 6% drops—likely due to strong sector sentiment then.
Sector sentiment’s turned sharply, so more aggressive price action is likely post-EB announcement. Timing is tricky, but the setup’s worth watching closely.

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI Corp (7013 JP) has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.
IHI Corp (7013 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.
The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.

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Apr 22

Most Read: BYD, Zomato, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, GMO Internet, ENN Energy, Suzhou Kematek, Sanrio, LS Corp, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Kakao Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion
Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
*NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float
Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon
CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
Lee Jae-Myung’s Camp Just Dropped Their Latest Market Stimulus Play
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
Big Crypto Money Move in Korea – Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

BYD (1211 HK) raised US$5.6bn in a secondary offering a few weeks ago and the stock is trading a lot higher than the placement price.
Buying from global index trackers is done, but there will be more passive buying from Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) trackers later this month.
With the release of the God’s Eye advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS), the stock could be added to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June, bringing more passive inflows.

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

NEW USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance

Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs).
Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float

Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP) has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the “internet infrastructure business” of GMO Internet (9449 JP).
It was a kind of reverse takeover – a backdoor listing – and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.
The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Domain Holdings.
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP), Aeon Delight (9787 JP), Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP).

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.

Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s stock price dropped following the placement announcement in November. Then there was a rally in the stock amid increased volatility.
The placement resulted in an increase in free float and the move higher in the stock could lead to Sanrio (8136 JP) being added to a global index in May.
There is positioning in the stock but a lot of that appears to have been taken off in the last month. The stock could move higher depending on global cues.

Lee Jae-Myung’s Camp Just Dropped Their Latest Market Stimulus Play

They’re making it easier to spot stocks benefiting from policy shifts. Lee Jae-myung’s camp is giving more detail upfront, with a focus on FuriosaAI and related listed stocks.
If cumulative voting passes, expect a pop in stocks with governance issues, activist interest, or large NPS stakes, like Hyosung affiliates, Doosan, HL Mando, and POSCO Holdings.
They also aim to give parent shareholders first crack at spun-off subsidiaries going public and require buyback cancellations, likely benefiting SK and LS Group affiliates, Samsung Electronics, and POSCO Holdings.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.

Big Crypto Money Move in Korea – Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies

There has been a big crypto money move in Korea. Market cap of crypto currencies held in crypto exchanges in Korea nearly doubled from October to November 2024.
We discuss 8 major listed companies in Korea that are major beneficiaries (directly and indirectly) of this big move into crypto currencies in Korea.
Some of the major beneficiaries include Kakao Corp, KT Corp, Hanwha Securities, Woori Technology Investment, and Vidente.

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Apr 21

Most Read: PDD Holdings, Northern Star Resources, Makino Milling Machine Co, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, NIFTY Index, TRYT , Zomato, Suzhou Kematek and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings
TSMC. Full Steam Ahead Despite Tariff Threats & China Bans. For Now.
*NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls
Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK).
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) bid ¥11,000 for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April.
A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in “legally binding bids.” No news on those yet, but we have a month.
Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec’s bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .

TSMC. Full Steam Ahead Despite Tariff Threats & China Bans. For Now.

By William Keating

TSMC offered a surprisingly robust outlook for the current quarter with revenues expected to rise 13% QoQ to $28.8 billion at the midpoint, their highest ever quarterly revenue.
No change to the previous full year 2025 guidance of mid-20% growth in US$ terms
It’s likely too early to see the full impact of tariffs and further China restrictions in TSMC’s outlook, but the second half will likely be a different story

NEW USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance

Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs).
Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti

The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

TRYT (9164 JP) shares were up 38.5% over the last two days based on a report that EQT, the controlling shareholder, had made progress in identifying bidders for its stake.
The exploration of the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Tryt was pre-rumour trading 69% below its JPY1,200 IPO price.
The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price aspirations will be challenging.

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.

Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage

By Mark Chadwick

The Federal Reserve will feature prominently this week, with speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials amid rising political pressure from President Trump.
The market is set for significant swings as key earnings announcements from major companies expected. FANUC, Nidec, and KEYENCE will announce their fiscal year 2025 results
Nintendo will start accepting reservations for its new Switch 2 game console in the US on the 24th, after postponing from the 9th to assess the impact of tariffs.

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Apr 20

Most Read: PDD Holdings, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Northern Star Resources, Suzhou Kematek, Chagee Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, Topcon Corp, TRYT , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying
De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow
Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400
[Japan Activism] – ValueAct Agrees to Tender to KKR Topcon (7732) Tender and Join As Buyer
TRYT (9164) – Limit Up On Report of Round 2 Bidding; A Growth Multiple Gets You a High Price
The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns
Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK).
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.
Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.

Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400

In February Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share after getting the cold shoulder for months.
Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) was asked to bid, and they did a week ago, bidding ¥4,500/share. Yesterday the Shibaura CEO was in an article saying an overbid would be considered.
Mid-Day, I boomeranged my piece, saying I thought Yageo would overbid. Today after the close, Yageo has overbid with a whopping ¥5,400/share bid, with unchanged start date of 7 May.

[Japan Activism] – ValueAct Agrees to Tender to KKR Topcon (7732) Tender and Join As Buyer

Last night, Topcon Corp (7732 JP) announced that KKR had agreed a deal with ValueAct Capital who owns 14.62% of Topcon to have VAC tender shares and invest in Bidco.
Topcon’s Special Committee saw nothing wrong with this in terms of fairness. I think that argument needs to be investigated at a broader level.
If Bidder wants 50.1% control and expects passive to agree, and Bidder gets 50.1% to join Bidco at terms, obviously, majority of minority disappears. This is an unintended loophole.

TRYT (9164) – Limit Up On Report of Round 2 Bidding; A Growth Multiple Gets You a High Price

TRYT (9164 JP) was bought by EQT years ago and IPOed on TSE Growth in July 2023 at ¥1,200/share. The shares tanked on Day 1, almost reached ¥1,000 days later.
Then they fell, and fell some more, reaching the ¥370s early in Q1, then again post Trump tariff announcement. EQT still holds ~60%. Shares closed at ¥374 on 16 April.
In February, there were noises about EQT putting the business up for sale, reportedly seeking an offer close to ¥1,200/share. Now there are noises of a Second Round.

The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns

By Aki Matsumoto

A benefit of inflation was expected to shift from management that accumulates cash to management that proactively uses cash. However, it’s been used for shareholder returns but less for apex.
Hitachi is one of few companies that manage business in disciplined manner and execute the necessary growth investments. This is more result of overseas investor engagement than corporate governance reform.
The key to Japanese equities outperformance is whether management can change to mindset that investors want to see “positive investment and the ability to implement measures to expand corporate value.”

Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

TRYT (9164 JP) shares were up 38.5% over the last two days based on a report that EQT, the controlling shareholder, had made progress in identifying bidders for its stake.
The exploration of the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Tryt was pre-rumour trading 69% below its JPY1,200 IPO price.
The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price aspirations will be challenging.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Company Analytics and News
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Apr 19

Most Read: PDD Holdings, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Northern Star Resources, Fast Retailing, Suzhou Kematek, Nexchip Semiconductor , Chagee Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, SHEIN and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying
De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)
CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June
Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer
Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025
Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK).
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.
Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF in September, there is a possibility of Fast Retailing being capped again in March 2026.
The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of Fast Retailing (9983 JP) outperformance versus the other index constituents.

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.
Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) replacing Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH) in June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor and sell 0.8x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai. There will be buying in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) due to capping.
The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has revised its hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY5,400, representing a 20.0% premium to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s JPY4,500 offer.
All the other terms remain unchanged. In response to the revised Yageo offer, the Board will commence a sincere review to determine if the Yageo offer will enhance corporate value.
There is a 50/50 chance that Minebea walks or revises its offer. Yageo’s revised offer is marginally above the midpoint of Minebea IFA’s DCF range, potentially justifying a higher offer.

Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Manishi Raychaudhuri.

The ASEAN region is expected to witness positive economic growth in the coming years, driven by robust domestic demand, increasing foreign investments, and government initiatives to boost economic activities.
However, challenges like trade turmoil, poor consumer confidence, and potential deflation need to be addressed to sustain and enhance the markets’ attractiveness.

Join us as Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri shares his outlook on capital markets across ASEAN, including timely insights on sector trends, policy shifts, and future risks shaping investment opportunities in the ASEAN-6.

The webinar will be hosted on Monday, 28 April 2025, 16:30 SGT/HKT.

Register for the Webinar here

Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri possesses nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan. Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients.

Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation

In the past week, Reuters reported that Shein has received approval from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for its IPO in London.
In February 2025, Reuters reported Shein could cut its valuation in a potential listing to around $50 billion, which would be 24% lower than the previous private market funding round.
Tariff war and ending de minimis for shipments from China to US are likely to result in further reduction in the valuation of Shein, much lower than $50 billion.

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✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 18

Most Read: Northern Star Resources, Chagee Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, Topcon Corp, Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Bestechnic Shanghai , TRYT , SK Innovation, Sonoscape Medical Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400
[Japan Activism] – ValueAct Agrees to Tender to KKR Topcon (7732) Tender and Join As Buyer
Canvest (1381 HK): 12th May Vote On Grandblue’s Offer
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Jun25: Rare Sector-Neutral ADDs Vs DELs Trade with Positive Momentum
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer
TRYT (9164) – Limit Up On Report of Round 2 Bidding; A Growth Multiple Gets You a High Price
Explaining the Whole SK Enmove IPO Delay Situation This Morning: SK Innovation Rights Issue Likely
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: Some New Expectations; Try Sector-Neutral Pairs

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.

Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400

In February Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share after getting the cold shoulder for months.
Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) was asked to bid, and they did a week ago, bidding ¥4,500/share. Yesterday the Shibaura CEO was in an article saying an overbid would be considered.
Mid-Day, I boomeranged my piece, saying I thought Yageo would overbid. Today after the close, Yageo has overbid with a whopping ¥5,400/share bid, with unchanged start date of 7 May.

[Japan Activism] – ValueAct Agrees to Tender to KKR Topcon (7732) Tender and Join As Buyer

Last night, Topcon Corp (7732 JP) announced that KKR had agreed a deal with ValueAct Capital who owns 14.62% of Topcon to have VAC tender shares and invest in Bidco.
Topcon’s Special Committee saw nothing wrong with this in terms of fairness. I think that argument needs to be investigated at a broader level.
If Bidder wants 50.1% control and expects passive to agree, and Bidder gets 50.1% to join Bidco at terms, obviously, majority of minority disappears. This is an unintended loophole.

Canvest (1381 HK): 12th May Vote On Grandblue’s Offer

On the 22 July 2024, waste-to-energy play Canvest Environmental (1381 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer from Grandblue Environment (600323 CH) at $4.90/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
On the 17th March 2025, all pre-conditions were (finally) satisfied.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 12th May, with payment on or before the 10th June. The IFA (Somerley) says “fair & reasonable“.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Jun25: Rare Sector-Neutral ADDs Vs DELs Trade with Positive Momentum

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the June 2025 index rebal event.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has revised its hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY5,400, representing a 20.0% premium to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s JPY4,500 offer.
All the other terms remain unchanged. In response to the revised Yageo offer, the Board will commence a sincere review to determine if the Yageo offer will enhance corporate value.
There is a 50/50 chance that Minebea walks or revises its offer. Yageo’s revised offer is marginally above the midpoint of Minebea IFA’s DCF range, potentially justifying a higher offer.

TRYT (9164) – Limit Up On Report of Round 2 Bidding; A Growth Multiple Gets You a High Price

TRYT (9164 JP) was bought by EQT years ago and IPOed on TSE Growth in July 2023 at ¥1,200/share. The shares tanked on Day 1, almost reached ¥1,000 days later.
Then they fell, and fell some more, reaching the ¥370s early in Q1, then again post Trump tariff announcement. EQT still holds ~60%. Shares closed at ¥374 on 16 April.
In February, there were noises about EQT putting the business up for sale, reportedly seeking an offer close to ¥1,200/share. Now there are noises of a Second Round.

Explaining the Whole SK Enmove IPO Delay Situation This Morning: SK Innovation Rights Issue Likely

KRX’s move on SK Enmove this morning ramps up the odds of an SKI rights issue.
Timing’s again the key — unlike POSCO Future M, this isn’t a clean setup. Word is SK may wait for H2 rate cuts and a more risk-on market backdrop.
So, doesn’t look near-term — likely post-June once local tape firms up. Watch quirky local hot money flows that front-run moves like this.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: Some New Expectations; Try Sector-Neutral Pairs

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 10 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 17

Most Read: Shibaura Electronics, Nick Scali Ltd, Midea Group, Fast Retailing, Nexchip Semiconductor , Horizon Robotics, Northern Star Resources, Air China Ltd (A), Chagee Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows
Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June
UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation
Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement
De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun25: End of Reference Period Soon; ~US$6bn Total One-Way
Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)

In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

Northern Star Resources (NST AU)‘s acquisition of De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is expected to complete in the next 3 weeks.
There will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from a bunch of trackers of different indices.
The acquisition brings Northern Star Resources (NST AU) close to inclusion in the S&P/ASX 20 Index, but it’s not there yet.

Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows

Midea Group listed in September 2024 by selling 650.85m shares (including the overallotment option) and raising HK$35.7bn (US$4.6bn). A large part of the offering was allocated to cornerstone investors.
Given the large company market cap and a free float that met the inclusion threshold, Midea Group (300 HK) was added to global indices via Fast Entry.
The lock-up expiry on cornerstone investors will increase the float for the stock in the global indices and Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) over the next two months.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.
Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF in September, there is a possibility of Fast Retailing being capped again in March 2026.
The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of Fast Retailing (9983 JP) outperformance versus the other index constituents.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) replacing Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH) in June.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor and sell 0.8x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai. There will be buying in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) due to capping.
The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.

UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation

By Phil Rush

A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.
Repeating 2008’s experience would drive a game price rebound, but the food effect is more likely to persist. The median inflationary impulse should also rebound soon.
Unit wage costs remain inconsistent with the target, while energy and water utility bills will drive a massive jump in April. We still forecast a final 25bp BoE rate cut in May.

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

By Sumeet Singh

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun25: End of Reference Period Soon; ~US$6bn Total One-Way

CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline