Most Read

Softbank Group (9984 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
Nearly half of Softbank Group‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.
Softbank Group has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: 2 ADDs Expected; US$1.8bn One-Way Flows

The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally. Last month the index inorganically gained significant tracking AUM.
This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event are presented here.
We expect 2 high-conviction ADDs for December 2025, with one-way flow of US$1.85bn. Healthy start for this new-ish index.

Credit Cockroaches Incubating

Write-downs at two regional banks follow the cockroaches of First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies, and should not be dismissed as isolated idiosyncratic events.
Overly accommodative monetary conditions are stimulating markets to incubate cockroach eggs that may spawn as private credit malinvestment in the next recession.
It is too early for these eggs to hatch, aided by the warm support of further Fed rate cuts. So, risk assets will probably keep on rising in the void of economic data releases.

Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop

After a huge upward move earlier this year, Remegen (9995 HK)‘s stock has started to drop as the sector starts to give back some of its gains.
Despite the recent correction, Remegen (9995 HK) should be added to a global index in November and that could help the stock outperform its peers.
There appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.

Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout

Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.

Pony AI Secondary HK Offering – Stock Has Been Volatile, a Look at Possible Trading Setup

Pony AI (PONY US) plans to raise around US$1bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 17th October 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec25 Rebal: Capping Flow Expectations Limited

The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$186mm for December 2025 due to capping/re-capping.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals

In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.
The US and Australia will each “provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months“
Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including Arafura Resources (ARU AU).

Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop

By John Ley

Gold’s rally shows signs of overextension but the volatility footprint differs from prior rallies.
We exam major bull markets over the past 50 years to assess how the current move stacks up.
Fund flows and the sources of buying pressure are analyzed to gauge the rally’s sustainability.

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Oct 21

Most Read: Kioxia Holdings , Barito Renewables Energy, Sany Heavy Industry, Digital Holdings Inc, Softbank Group, Tekscend Photomask, Kakaopay , Remegen and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion
[Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible
Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer
ECM Weekly (20 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, JST, Fibocom, Tekscend, FineToday, LG India, DIY, Duality
Sany Heavy Industries A/H IPO Pricing – Thoughts on Valuations
Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout
Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)‘s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.

Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion

Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) could raise up to HK$16.35bn (US$2.1bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 24 November following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible

Today, in something of a surprise but not a complete surprise, Silvercape came out with its own bid for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at +20% from the Hakuhodo bid.
They make it clear that the original bid does not protect minority shareholders or give them sufficient value. This one would. Which means that is Hakuhodo’s bogey.
It would not be impossible for Silvercape to get to its minimum hurdle, but despite being lower than Hakuhodo’s it’s not a gimme.

Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap

Softbank Group (9984 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
Nearly half of Softbank Group‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.
Softbank Group has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer.
The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
The situation shares similarities with Soft99’s contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances.

ECM Weekly (20 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, JST, Fibocom, Tekscend, FineToday, LG India, DIY, Duality

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, India saw a host of listing, while HK is gearing up a busy year end.
On the placements front, we had a look at some of the IPO lockups. There weren’t any large placements this week.

Sany Heavy Industries A/H IPO Pricing – Thoughts on Valuations

Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) aims to raise around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing.
Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout

Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.

Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop

After a huge upward move earlier this year, Remegen (9995 HK)‘s stock has started to drop as the sector starts to give back some of its gains.
Despite the recent correction, Remegen (9995 HK) should be added to a global index in November and that could help the stock outperform its peers.
There appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.

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Oct 20

Most Read: Ganfeng Lithium, Mandarin Oriental International, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Kioxia Holdings , Samsung Electronics, Barito Renewables Energy, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, ENN Energy, Sany Heavy Industry and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer
Final Samsung Electronics Stake Sale: Overhang Risk, Control Optics, & Clean Pref Reversion Trade
Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
Block Deal Sale of 1.7 Trillion Won Worth of Samsung Electronics
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)
Zijin Mining – Structural Re-Rate Underway; Q3 Results Validate Copper–Gold Flywheel + Spin Unlock
Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer
Merger Arb Mondays (20 Oct) – ENN Energy, Joy City, Kangji, Mandarin, Soft99, Mandom, Makino
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) disclosed a privatisation offer from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at US$3.35 (US$2.75 cash + US$0.60 special dividend), a 39.6% premium to the last close.
The special dividend represents the majority of the proceeds from the sale of the top thirteen floors of One Causeway Bay (OCB) to Alibaba and Ant Group for US$925 million.
The offer is final. The scheme is conditional on the completion of the OCB sale and Mandarin shareholder approval. This is a done deal due to an attractive offer.

Final Samsung Electronics Stake Sale: Overhang Risk, Control Optics, & Clean Pref Reversion Trade

Near‑term flow looks muted: Shinhan likely drips ~0.3% SO stake into liquid tape, not a block. With ₩2tn daily turnover, market easily absorbs without price shock.
Top‑holder stake dips 20.14→19.84% post‑sale, but ₩10tn buyback cancels ~1.5ppt float, restoring 20.14%. The 0.3% selldown’s pre‑calculated; no real trading juice, flow impact minimal.
Inheritance‑tax overhang done, buyback cycle fading. Gov’t pressure plus family’s last selldown point to dividend ramp. Prefs at 23% discount vs 10% target set up clean reversion trade.

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

Block Deal Sale of 1.7 Trillion Won Worth of Samsung Electronics

It was reported that Hong Ra-hee, Lee Boo-jin, and Lee Seo-hyun will be selling a combined 1.7 trillion won worth of Samsung Electronics to pay for inheritance taxes.
This stake sale by the Lee family will represent 0.3% of Samsung Electronics outstanding shares.
Samsung Electronics still trade at low multiples and its valuations remain attractive. Its recent strategic partnership with OpenAI regarding the Stargate project also remain a major positive catalyst.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)‘s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.

Zijin Mining – Structural Re-Rate Underway; Q3 Results Validate Copper–Gold Flywheel + Spin Unlock

By Rahul Jain

Earnings momentum accelerating driven by gold volume +20% and mine margin expansion to 60.6%, supported by disciplined cost control and strong operating cash flow.
Copper–gold dual exposure provides structural upside with spot torque to Cu ~US$10,800/t and Au ~US$4,200/oz, reinforcing earnings visibility into FY26–27.
Zijin Gold spin-off unlocks value via clean asset separation, improved capital efficiency, and SOTP rerating potential to HK$41–42/sh under spot scenario.

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer

A sale – partial or otherwise – of Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)‘s One Causeway Bay (OCB) was always on the cards. But I didn’t see an Offer coming.
Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba (9988 HK), Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to take out MAND’s minorities at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
That’s a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Unlike the 2021 Jardine Strategic (JS SP) Offer, Matheson is required to abstain from voting on this takeover.

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Oct) – ENN Energy, Joy City, Kangji, Mandarin, Soft99, Mandom, Makino

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion

Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) could raise up to HK$16.35bn (US$2.1bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 24 November following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

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Oct 19

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Advantest Corp, Lynas Corp Ltd, Ganfeng Lithium, China Gold International Resources, Soft99 Corp, Mandarin Oriental International, Samsung Electronics, Shiseido Company, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Could the MBO Revised Offer Get the Job Done?
Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer
Block Deal Sale of 1.7 Trillion Won Worth of Samsung Electronics
Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock
Final Samsung Electronics Stake Sale: Overhang Risk, Control Optics, & Clean Pref Reversion Trade

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.
Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Could the MBO Revised Offer Get the Job Done?

The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) MBO offer price has been increased by 8.7% to JPY2,680, an 18.8% discount to the last close and a 34.6% discount to the Effissimo offer.
Ostensibly, the offer was revised based on requests from some shareholders to increase the offer price and for it to exceed the book value of JPY2,653 (implying P/B of 1.01x).
The latest update points to modest withdrawals of non-KeePer acceptances. Effissimo continues to face an uphill task, and the revised MBO offer increases the odds of success.

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) disclosed a privatisation offer from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at US$3.35 (US$2.75 cash + US$0.60 special dividend), a 39.6% premium to the last close.
The special dividend represents the majority of the proceeds from the sale of the top thirteen floors of One Causeway Bay (OCB) to Alibaba and Ant Group for US$925 million.
The offer is final. The scheme is conditional on the completion of the OCB sale and Mandarin shareholder approval. This is a done deal due to an attractive offer.

Block Deal Sale of 1.7 Trillion Won Worth of Samsung Electronics

It was reported that Hong Ra-hee, Lee Boo-jin, and Lee Seo-hyun will be selling a combined 1.7 trillion won worth of Samsung Electronics to pay for inheritance taxes.
This stake sale by the Lee family will represent 0.3% of Samsung Electronics outstanding shares.
Samsung Electronics still trade at low multiples and its valuations remain attractive. Its recent strategic partnership with OpenAI regarding the Stargate project also remain a major positive catalyst.

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

By Michael Allen

Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?
In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure.
Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.

Final Samsung Electronics Stake Sale: Overhang Risk, Control Optics, & Clean Pref Reversion Trade

Near‑term flow looks muted: Shinhan likely drips ~0.3% SO stake into liquid tape, not a block. With ₩2tn daily turnover, market easily absorbs without price shock.
Top‑holder stake dips 20.14→19.84% post‑sale, but ₩10tn buyback cancels ~1.5ppt float, restoring 20.14%. The 0.3% selldown’s pre‑calculated; no real trading juice, flow impact minimal.
Inheritance‑tax overhang done, buyback cycle fading. Gov’t pressure plus family’s last selldown point to dividend ramp. Prefs at 23% discount vs 10% target set up clean reversion trade.

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Oct 18

Most Read: Zijin Gold, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Tsuruha Holdings, Ganfeng Lithium, Lynas Corp Ltd, Elite UK REIT, Soft99 Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths
Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite UK REIT: Counter Cyclical Portfolio, Attractive Yields
UK: Unseasonably Resilient In Q3
EA: Inflation Rises Briefly In The Fall
HEW: Cockroaches Startle Pricing
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Could the MBO Revised Offer Get the Job Done?

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher

The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events.
After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up.
Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths

As discussed in my April note Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths – to all countries.
Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.
The US recently struck a deal MP Materials (MP US) on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite UK REIT: Counter Cyclical Portfolio, Attractive Yields

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, engageIR by Smartkarma is glad to welcome Elite UK REIT (ELITE SP)’s team to Smartkarma. We will be joined by their Chief Executive Officer, Joshua Liaw, Chief Investment Officer, Jonathan Edmunds, and Chief Financial Officer, Michael Tong, along with Smartkarma Insight Provider Garreth Elston.

In the upcoming webinar, the Elite UK REIT team will share a short company presentation after which they will engage in a fireside chat with Garreth. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 11 November 2025, 18:00 SGT.

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About Elite UK REIT

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UK: Unseasonably Resilient In Q3

Slight growth in August sustains an above trend level of activity and is tracking to a 0.2% q-o-q pace for Q3, matching our forecast and the consensus, but disappointing the BoE.
The ongoing slowdown in service sector activity repeats residual seasonality that would leave a trough in two months, but there is slightly more resilience this year.
Policymakers shouldn’t react to statistical noise, and are unlikely to amid ongoing excesses in underlying inflation that a stabilising labour market wouldn’t break.

EA: Inflation Rises Briefly In The Fall

Inflation’s rise to a high 2.3% in September was confirmed in the final print, although some payback remains likely in October. We doubt it goes fully back to the target then.
Underlying inflation metrics were broadly stable again at about 2.5%, with little progress in most statistical measures for over a year.
There is little cause for alarm at this stage, so the ECB can keep waiting in a good place, but we still see a greater risk of hikes than cuts in 2026.

HEW: Cockroaches Startle Pricing

Losses on bad and fraudulent US loans raise the risk that more cockroaches will emerge, nourished by monetary policy stimulating asset prices outside of recessionary regimes.
Market rates fell on this, while macro data didn’t offer direction as UK Q3 GDP kept tracking 0.2%, EA inflation was confirmed, and UK labour market data were mixed.
Next week’s UK inflation data should reveal a rise, with the CPI reaching 4%. Delayed US CPI data will provide a rare signal more relevant to the Fed’s likely decision to cut.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Could the MBO Revised Offer Get the Job Done?

The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) MBO offer price has been increased by 8.7% to JPY2,680, an 18.8% discount to the last close and a 34.6% discount to the Effissimo offer.
Ostensibly, the offer was revised based on requests from some shareholders to increase the offer price and for it to exceed the book value of JPY2,653 (implying P/B of 1.01x).
The latest update points to modest withdrawals of non-KeePer acceptances. Effissimo continues to face an uphill task, and the revised MBO offer increases the odds of success.

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Oct 17

Most Read: Zijin Gold, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Tsuruha Holdings, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Ganfeng Lithium, Mayne Pharma, Mandom Corp, HKT Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, SK Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add
The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today
Supreme Court Overturns a Lower Court Ruling for the Divorce Case Chey Tae-Won and Roh So-Young

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher

The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events.
After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up.
Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.

Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor

Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk

In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns.

Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add

Murakami has amassed an 18.85% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,157.78 per share is 10.1% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
Murakami’s ongoing stake building likely suggests that any potential discussions with CVC and the founding family to reinvest into BidCo have hit an impasse.
CVC/Founding family can buy time by extending the 10 November close and disclosing additional irrevocables. Nevertheless, an offer bump remains more likely than not.

The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT

First it was the Li family’s, via CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.
Now the U.S.’s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” – i.e. HKT Ltd (6823 HK) – from the US telecommunication network.
The FCC order cites HKT’s affiliation with black-listed China Unicom (762 HK). Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in PCCW (8 HK), HKT’s parent. A stake it acquired twenty years ago.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Set Up Opportunity During Taiwan Sesssion Ahead of Results Today

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +27.3% Premium; Opportunity to Set Up ADR Spread Short During Taiwan Session
UMC: +2.0% Premium; Wait for Slightly Higher Premium Before Opening Spread Short
ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Swing Before Going Long or Short

Supreme Court Overturns a Lower Court Ruling for the Divorce Case Chey Tae-Won and Roh So-Young

The long-standing divorce case between SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and his estranged wife Roh So-young refuses to end.
Rather, the Supreme Court of Korea overturned a lower court ruling that ordered Chey Tae-won to pay 1.38 trillion won ($973 million) to Ro So-young.
Our NAV valuation of SK Inc suggests implied market cap of 25.8 trillion won or target price of 355,918 won per share, which is 63% higher than current levels.

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Oct 16

Most Read: Ebara Corp, Tekscend Photomask, Genting Bhd, China Nonferrous Mining Corp, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, SK Inc, Mayne Pharma, Ganfeng Lithium, Seibu Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading – Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap
StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble
China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears
Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.

Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading – Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.
TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble

Genting (GENT MK)‘s Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) is further evidence of the gaming group’s move for even greater U.S. exposure.
Preceding my comments on GENT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears

The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.

Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor

Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.

Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves

Supreme Court divorce ruling for Chairman Chey (17.9% owner) hits tomorrow 10 a.m., likely driving intraday swings.
Chey’s wealth is mainly SK Inc (17.8%) and SK Siltron (29.6%). With half SK Inc shares tied, only SK Siltron offers liquidity, but it still falls short of his needs.
If the Supreme Court surprises, Chey may act on SK Inc shares, fueling a management/control narrative. Payments are due immediately, so SK Inc could see bigger intraday swings than expected.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling

The NSW court has dismissed all Cosette claims relating to terminating its scheme implementation deed with Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
While Cosette can appeal, the chances that the judgment will be overturned are low due to the comprehensive judgment.
The ruling will provide more certainty regarding the interpretation of MACs. The scheme is subject to FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming. At the last close, the spread was 30.7%.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion

The recent rally has taken Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)‘ stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.
While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk

In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns.

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Oct 15

Most Read: Hang Seng Bank, Genting Malaysia, Bullish US, China Gold International Resources, JX Advanced Metals, Ebara Corp, Duality Biotherapeutics, Hanwha Ocean , Samsung Electronics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
Duality Bio IPO Lockup – US$2.7bn Lockup Release, with Lots of CCASS Movement
Hanwha Ocean: Negative Impact from Chinese Government’s Efforts to Crack Down on U.S. Subsidiaries
An Update of Our 2025 High Conviction Pick: Samsung Electronics

Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits

Since announcing HSBC (5 HK)‘s Offer, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has traded tight-ish to terms, at a ~3.9% gross spread (including dividends). Or ~10% annualised if a five month offramp.
Annualised spreads for clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, do tend to widen after day 1. Meaning, the gross spread remains roughly static as investors hit their full quota early on.
HSBC shareholders are questioning the deal merits. For Hang Seng minorities, this is a great exit. Inside this report, I take a deeper dive into Hong Kong bank takeover precedents.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update.
They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too.

China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.

UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market

Most narratives can find some support in the latest labour market report, preserving uncertainty that should keep the BoE on hold at least until some clarity emerges.
Unemployment has increased (LFS) or stabilised (payrolls), while pay is shockingly resurgent (inc-bonuses), slowing as expected (ex-bonus) or stagnating (private pay).
Weakness isn’t as clear as the consensus and press sometimes make out, but concerns aren’t invalidated. We still expect resilience to preserve excess inflation hawkishly.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.

Duality Bio IPO Lockup – US$2.7bn Lockup Release, with Lots of CCASS Movement

Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK)‘ s raised around US$200m in its Hong Kong listing in April 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone and pre-IPO investors is set to expire today.
Duality is a biopharma company focused primarily on the independent discovery and development of antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) assets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Hanwha Ocean: Negative Impact from Chinese Government’s Efforts to Crack Down on U.S. Subsidiaries

Chinese government’s efforts to ban Hanwha Ocean’s five U.S. subsidiaries from conducting any transactions with organizations or individuals in China is likely to have material Negative impact on Hanwha Ocean.
If Hanwha’s U.S. subsidiaries are banned from Chinese suppliers, they’ll need to source alternatives (Japan, Europe, or domestic U.S. firms), that could involve 20–50% higher costs with longer lead times.
Basically, what’s going on is that the Chinese government wants to slow down the United States’ efforts to rebuild its shipbuilding sector with the help of Korean shipbuilders.

An Update of Our 2025 High Conviction Pick: Samsung Electronics

Back on 6 November 2024, we published an insight called 2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics. In this insight, we provide an update of Samsung Electronics.
Samsung Electronics reported operating profit of 12.1 trillion won (up 31.8% YoY and 18.7% higher than consensus) in 3Q 2025.
The final installment of the 12 trillion won+ inheritance tax is due in April 2026.

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Oct 14

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Lynas Corp Ltd, Zijin Gold, AAC Technologies Holdings, Bullish US, RPMGlobal Holdings Limited, Genting Malaysia, China Gold International Resources, JX Advanced Metals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer
Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way
[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.
Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.
Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
We expect one index change and roughly US$1.7bn in one-way index flows in December 2025.

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update.
They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a Scheme with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
Caterpillar, which currently holds no shares in RPMGlobal, is offering A$5/share (the same as in the NBIO), a 32.8% premium to undisturbed. Terms have not been declared final.
FIRB and ACCC approvals are conditions. FIRB won’t be an issue. The key ACCC question is whether the combo has significant direct market overlap that triggers substantial competition concerns.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Genting Bhd (GENT MK) at RM2.35, a 9.8% premium to the last close price of RM2.14.
The 50% minimum acceptance condition is easily met as Genting is the largest shareholder, representing 49.36% of outstanding shares.
Genting’s preferred endgame is to delist GENM, thereby fully benefiting if GENM successfully bids for a downstate New York casino licence. Therefore, there is a good chance of a bump.

China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) at A$5.00 per share, a 32.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The key scheme conditions are RPM shareholder, FIRB and ACCC approval. RPM’s benign shareholder structure facilitates completion.
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.7%/7.8%.

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Oct 13

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Alibaba, SIMMTECH Co Ltd, Dongfeng Motor, Hanon Systems, Lynas Corp Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, BYD Electronics, Zijin Gold, AAC Technologies Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks
Hunting Trades in Korea Semis Materials & Equip ETF Ahead of the Dec Rebalance
Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng, Hang Seng, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Pacific Ind, Mandom
Hanon Systems Rights Deal Suddenly Heating Up for CJ CGV–Style Arb as Hahn & Co Confirms Sitting Out
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Expected ADDs Strongly Outperforming Expected DELs
Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.
Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.

Hunting Trades in Korea Semis Materials & Equip ETF Ahead of the Dec Rebalance

Next rebalance is Dec 12; Simmtech (222800 KS) looks set to replace Philoptics, with a KRW 0.8T market cap gap making it a high-conviction front-runner.
Dongjin Semicam and Daeduck clear market cap but face keyword-score risk; PSK Holdings vs S&S Tech is tight — final screening will decide, so front-running carries caution.
December rebalance AUM doubled; Simmtech and Philoptics could see ~1x DTV passive flows, likely triggering an even stronger passive price impact than last cycle.

Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng, Hang Seng, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Pacific Ind, Mandom

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU).

Hanon Systems Rights Deal Suddenly Heating Up for CJ CGV–Style Arb as Hahn & Co Confirms Sitting Out

Hahn & Co, holding 21.63% of Hanon, won’t join the rights issue, raising the odds of a CJ CGV–style stock rights dump hitting the market.
Hanon’s rights float mirrors CJ CGV (~17% post-ESOP), with Hahn & Co likely to sell, limited local demand, and potential follow-on selling pressure.
Hanon’s 50% rights at 15% discount offer smaller float than CJ CGV, but larger deal size and weak EV sentiment create a potential CJ CGV–style arb, with SSF tradability.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.

By Patrick Liao

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on China.
Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.
Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Expected ADDs Strongly Outperforming Expected DELs

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
In this insight, we take a look at the December 2025 index capping flows.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2026.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.
Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.
Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way