Most Read

Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.
Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.

[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting – A VERY BIG DEAL

In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October.

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR’s lockup would expire about now in [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?
Today post-close, Applied Materials (AMAT US) announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%.
This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR’s last bit. Perhaps to come soon?

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in Dec, Big DELTA Capping

With a third of the review period yet to go, we forecast 2 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in December.
Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
The forecast adds have moved higher and outperformed the index while the forecast deletes have drifted lower over the last 6 months.

[Quiddity Index] Predictions for the Global Index Provider Rebal in November 2025

A global index provider will announce its quarterly review on 5 November 2025. The rebalance will take place on 24 November 2025.
We make predictions every week for the following index rebalance and publish them along with predictions for 100 other indices.
This insight shows our whole set of predictions across 47 countries for the next rebalance. Most of these names are unchanged since our early September predictions.

SCSK Corp (9719 JP): Sumitomo (8053 JP)’s Attractive Tender Offer at JPY5,700

In response to the Nikkei report, Scsk Corp (9719 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) at JPY5,700, a 31.5% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions, is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and represents an all-time high.
An attractive offer facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 30 October to 12 December, with payment commencing from 19 December.

ANE (9956 HK): Centurium/Temasek’s Clean Offer

After ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, an Offer from PE outfit Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, was expected.
And this is what unfolded. Centurium, together with Temasek and Singapore-based asset manager True Light, are offering HK$12.18/share (best & final) via a Scheme, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed.
A scrip alternative is present (mix & match). This is a pre-conditional Offer: it requires SAMR signing off. The FA is JPM. This should help smooth over the reg process.

Sanil Electric Poised for Pop on Nov 20 KOSPI200 Ad‑Hoc (HD Hyundai Merger)

HD Hyundai merger: both legs in index, Mipo delists, slot opens — one new name gets added to KOSPI200 via ad‑hoc.
Sanil Electric (062040 KS) to replace HD Mipo pre‑Dec review. If DTV settles back into the 500–600k range, then KS200 ETFs will need to scoop ~0.3–0.4x DTV on Nov 26.
Better to front‑run KRX; with AI power trade still hot, Nov 20 announcement likely sparks outsized price action vs waiting for rebalance print.

AUB Group (AUB AU) Opens Books To EQT’s NBIO

AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), which operates a network of insurance “matchmakers”, has announced a NBIO, via a Scheme, from EQT @ A$45/share, a ~40% premium to undisturbed.
That indicative price is up from $43/share proposed on the 13th September (but not made public).
AUB’s board has opted to open its books to EQT, on an exclusive basis, for six weeks. Tentatively, that expires on or around the 9th December.

SK Square: Selling Its Stake in 11st to SK Planet

On 29 October, SK Square announced that it is selling its stake in 11st to SK Planet. This is likely to have a slightly negative impact on SK Square.
Given SK Planet’s limited financial resources, it is likely that SK Square will provide funding to SK Planet through a capital increase.
However, the biggest factor driving SK Square’s share price right now is the continued surge in SK Hynix’s share price.

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Oct 29

Most Read: Nidec Corp, Ibiden Co Ltd, Kasumigaseki Capital, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Nikkei 225, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Digital Holdings Inc, AUB Group Limited, Hanmi Semiconductor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: 🚨Ibiden (4062 JP) To Replace Nidec (6594 JP) 🚨
[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting – A VERY BIG DEAL
[Japan Offering] Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) – BIG Primary for Big Plans
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Plenty of Change with 4 Days to Trade
Nikkei 225 (NKY) Outlook After Surprise Nov 5 Rebalance
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Near Fresh Spread Short Level; ChipMOS Rare Discount
A Special Cross Asset Morning Update: Nidec, Ibiden, and BoJ This Week
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape’s Hostile Competing Bid Is Met with Countermeasures
AUB Group (AUB AU): EQT’s NBIO at A$45.00
Introducing the Unusual Policy Narrative Now Pushed: Korea–Japan Economic Integration

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: 🚨Ibiden (4062 JP) To Replace Nidec (6594 JP) 🚨

The JPX has designated Nidec Corp (6594 JP) as a ‘Security on Special Alert’ due to a disclaimer of opinion in the annual report (among other issues).
Nikkei has announced the deletion of Nidec Corp (6594 JP) from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) will be added to the index.
Nidec Corp (6594 JP) should also be deleted from the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX). Both index deletions should take the stock a lot lower from here.

[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting – A VERY BIG DEAL

In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October.

[Japan Offering] Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) – BIG Primary for Big Plans

On Friday, Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Aug-25 earnings and a combination ¥45-50bn primary+secondary offering worth 5.3mm shares, 6x ADV, and a float increase of 37%. Shares fell 15% today.
2yrs ago they did a large offering. It went well. They’d had a ridiculous plan to grow OP 6x from ¥3.5bn to ¥20bn in 2yrs to Aug-26. Then by Aug-25.
They got to ¥8.5bn in Aug-24 and now ¥18.9bn in Aug-25 and now guide to ¥26.5bn in Aug-26 (the original plan having been ¥20bn).

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Plenty of Change with 4 Days to Trade

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, 5 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 October.
The largest passive flows are expected in Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Bank Central Asia, Bank Mandiri, Emtek, Bumi Resources, Bank Syariah Indonesia, XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera and Medikaloka Hermina.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Outlook After Surprise Nov 5 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

As reported by Brian Freitas, the JPX on Oct 27 suddenly announced that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) would be deleted from the Nikkei 225 and replaced by Ibiden (4062 JP).
The date of replacement is November 5, the Nikkei will experience passive flows, in this insight we want to have a look at the possible moves caused by this catalyst.
At the moment the index is overbought, according to our models.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Near Fresh Spread Short Level; ChipMOS Rare Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Near Levels to Open Fresh ADR Spread Short
ASE: +0.3% Premium; Good Level to Long the ADR Spread
ChipMOS: -7.5% Discount; Local Shares Rally Makes ADR Deeply Discounted

A Special Cross Asset Morning Update: Nidec, Ibiden, and BoJ This Week

By Jay Cameron

Japanese markets are seeing significant developments, including Nikkei 225 rebalancing with Nidec’s removal due to alert and Ibiden’s addition, impacting tracking funds, delta one trading strategies, and investors with position.
The BoJ’s cautious normalization path continues to shape the JGB curve, with a notable steepening in the long end affecting asset-liability management.
We detail the trades and execution of the trade idea, which may require special attention this week especially on the rebalance.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape’s Hostile Competing Bid Is Met with Countermeasures

The Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) Board has responded to SilverCape’s hostile offer by proposing countermeasures ostensibly to protect the interests of minorities.
The precedent Makino countermeasures against Nidec’s hostile offer were intended to buy time for a higher white-knight offer. In this case, it is being done to facilitate a lower offer.
The countermeasures will severely dent SilverCape’s chances of succeeding. Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)’s irrevocables and insiders should be sufficient to pass the shareholder vote to implement the countermeasures.

AUB Group (AUB AU): EQT’s NBIO at A$45.00

In response to an AFR article, AUB Group Limited (AUB AU) confirmed that on 26 September, it received a non-binding proposal from EQT (EQT SS) at A$45.00.
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is arguably light compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. EQT’s history of unsuccessful ASX tilts warrants some caution.
The Board has granted a six-week exclusive due diligence period, which ends on 20 November. The shareholder structure reduces the vote risk.

Introducing the Unusual Policy Narrative Now Pushed: Korea–Japan Economic Integration

Chey Tae‑won’s Korea–Japan integration push is fresh tape—unpriced and unconsumed—unlike the exhausted dividend tax story, making it the real policy‑momentum trade to watch.
Korea’s export model is fading, but a $6T Korea–Japan bloc plus CPTPP buzz offers a fresh policy‑momentum catalyst, with AI/data angles luring incremental global flows.
Korea–Japan cooperation isn’t a real bloc yet, but it trades like a policy theme—Chey’s 3PRO push makes it a headline‑driven short‑term play ripe for desks.

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Oct 28

Most Read: Nidec Corp, Tsuruha Holdings, Ibiden Co Ltd, Rio Tinto , Seres Group , Kasumigaseki Capital, Ashimori Industry, Lenskart Solutions, LG Chem Ltd, Hyundai Motor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: 🚨Ibiden (4062 JP) To Replace Nidec (6594 JP) 🚨
Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting – A VERY BIG DEAL
Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Capping Changes
Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares
[Japan Offering] Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) – BIG Primary for Big Plans
[Japan M&A/Activism] Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) Minimum Lower, May Be a Tough Call
Lenskart IPO: Earliest Index Inclusion in June
LG Chem (051910 KS): Palliser Targets Steep NAV Discount
Running Through the Context Behind Chatter of HMC Rolling Out a Pref‑tilted First‑leg Buyback

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: 🚨Ibiden (4062 JP) To Replace Nidec (6594 JP) 🚨

The JPX has designated Nidec Corp (6594 JP) as a ‘Security on Special Alert’ due to a disclaimer of opinion in the annual report (among other issues).
Nikkei has announced the deletion of Nidec Corp (6594 JP) from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) will be added to the index.
Nidec Corp (6594 JP) should also be deleted from the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX). Both index deletions should take the stock a lot lower from here.

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting – A VERY BIG DEAL

In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October.

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Capping Changes

Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are two additions for the index and there will also be capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.3% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$813m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The index has broken out of the secular downtrend, but investors continue to redeem units from the ETFs tracking the index.

Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares

Seres Group (601127 CH) could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

[Japan Offering] Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) – BIG Primary for Big Plans

On Friday, Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Aug-25 earnings and a combination ¥45-50bn primary+secondary offering worth 5.3mm shares, 6x ADV, and a float increase of 37%. Shares fell 15% today.
2yrs ago they did a large offering. It went well. They’d had a ridiculous plan to grow OP 6x from ¥3.5bn to ¥20bn in 2yrs to Aug-26. Then by Aug-25.
They got to ¥8.5bn in Aug-24 and now ¥18.9bn in Aug-25 and now guide to ¥26.5bn in Aug-26 (the original plan having been ¥20bn).

[Japan M&A/Activism] Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) Minimum Lower, May Be a Tough Call

In August, Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) announced a deal for Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at 1.000x book value after writedowns. That was not a coincidence.
The takeover is cheap for what it is. No synergies were counted. But it wasn’t truly offensive. MURAKAMI Takateru aimed an activist broadside, bought 19.73% across four entities. Then stopped.
The Bidder lowered the Tender Offer Minimum from 2.3081mm shares (38.29%) to 1.8001mm shares (29.86%). Shares dropped. As of 24-Sep, 2,111,226 shares had been tendered. This looks done. Maybe.

Lenskart IPO: Earliest Index Inclusion in June

Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 181.05m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$829m at a valuation of US$7.95bn.
The price band has been set at INR 382-402/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

LG Chem (051910 KS): Palliser Targets Steep NAV Discount

Last week, London-based activist Palliser Capital tapped LG Chem (051910 KS) to remedy its NAV market discount. Palliser also said it now holds a little over 1% in LG Chem.
LG Chem’s large NAV discount is well known. It has been present since ~82%-held LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) was listed in January 2022.
An obvious solution is to pare down the LGES stake, and buy back shares. Yet the discount remains as the market views management as being (stubbornly) set in their ways.

Running Through the Context Behind Chatter of HMC Rolling Out a Pref‑tilted First‑leg Buyback

HMC buyback ~₩0.8–1.0tn (~1.5% SO). Street focus is ord/pref split, with prefs at ~25% discount. Mgmt urgency: lift equity value as K‑market rallies.
Narrowing the pref gap seen as the cleanest lever—shareholder‑friendly signal, draws real money/offshore flows, de‑risks policy optics—so locals expect the first buyback leg skewed to prefs.
Street sees HMC aiming mid‑teens pref discount via year‑end pref‑heavy buyback and dividend tax reform. Catalysts make narrowing trend look achievable.

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Oct 27

Most Read: Kioxia Holdings , Tsuruha Holdings, Rio Tinto , Soft99 Corp, CRH , Isuzu Motors, NOF, Dongfeng Motor, Seres Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Capping Changes
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Precedent Set but Still a Fluid Outcome
[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Dec25 Rebal: 2 Regular ADDs/DELs + Multiple Intra-Review Changes Coming
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Oct)
Shorting NOF (4403) Just Now Is Probably a Very Bad Idea
Merger Arb Mondays (27 Oct) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Minmetals, Soft99, Ashimori, Pacific Ind
Japan Activism Briefs: Yamaha Motor, Tamron, NPC
Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Two Adds and Capping Changes

Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are two additions for the index and there will also be capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.3% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$813m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The index has broken out of the secular downtrend, but investors continue to redeem units from the ETFs tracking the index.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Precedent Set but Still a Fluid Outcome

KeePer Technical Laboratory (6036 JP) has switched its allegiance from the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) MBO by agreeing to accept the higher Effissimo offer.
KeePer’s change of heart sets a huge precedent and signals that irrevocables are unenforceable and fiduciary duty outweighs a promise to tender.
Nevertheless, the outcome is still not set in stone. Effissimo’s chances of success have increased, but the MBO still retains a long-shot chance of success.

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Dec25 Rebal: 2 Regular ADDs/DELs + Multiple Intra-Review Changes Coming

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We now expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A and special situation events likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Oct)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Shorting NOF (4403) Just Now Is Probably a Very Bad Idea

By Michael Allen

Japan’s defense budget may be set to surge by about 50%, making NOF’s ammunition business a hot theme.
Be careful though. NOF’s munitions segment faces production limits and slow capacity expansion, capping near-term profit growth even with new defense spending.
We think NOF is overvalued, even as we acknowledge consensus forecasts are probably too low. But shorting now would probably just be fighting the tape. Save this idea for later.

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Oct) – Dongfeng, ENN, Joy City, Minmetals, Soft99, Ashimori, Pacific Ind

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Larvotto Resources (LRV AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).

Japan Activism Briefs: Yamaha Motor, Tamron, NPC

By Mark Chadwick

Yamaha Motor (7272) | Silchester raised stake to 8.8%; shares down 20% despite core motorcycles/marine generating 20-30% ROIC, undermined by ¥62bn losses in RVs/Robotics.
Tamron (7740) | Effissimo increased holding to 13%; company trades at 6x EBIT with 20%+ margins, expanding from camera lenses into automotive ADAS and industrial optics.
NPC (6255) | LIM acquired 6% stake in solar equipment maker down 20% year-to-date, betting on perovskite cycle recovery despite withdrawn guidance and customer weakness.

Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares

Seres Group (601127 CH) could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

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Oct 26

Most Read: Kioxia Holdings , Northern Star Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, Ebara Corp, Seibu Holdings, China Nonferrous Mining Corp, Barito Renewables Energy, Yakult Honsha, UBTech Robotics, Nanjing Leads Biolabs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade
Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion
China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)
Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov
UBTech Robotics (9880 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely in November
Nanjing Leads Biolabs (NLB HK): Bags Outlicensing Deal for Pre-Clinical Drug Candidate

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.

Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion

The recent rally has taken Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)‘ stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.
While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.

China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears

The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)‘s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.

Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov

Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s stock price has continued to slide, and the stock is now trading 53% lower than its highs from 18 months ago.
The lower market cap should result in the stock being deleted from a global index in November. The stock has underperformed peers but still trades at higher valuations.
There has been increased positioning over the last few weeks. Short interest is higher since end-August but there has been covering in the last couple of weeks.

UBTech Robotics (9880 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely in November

The increase in the stock price over the last 3 months could result in UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) being added to a global index in November.
There is a fair amount to buy in the stock and cumulative excess volume has picked up since July. Short interest has dropped over the same period.
The recent drop in the stock price provides a better entry point for a short-term trade as positioning builds up ahead of the potential passive buying.

Nanjing Leads Biolabs (NLB HK): Bags Outlicensing Deal for Pre-Clinical Drug Candidate

By Tina Banerjee

Nanjing Leads Biolabs (NLB HK) entered into an exclusive global license agreement with Dianthus Therapeutics to jointly advance LBL-047, a first and potentially best-in-class pre-clinical asset.
Leads Biolabs will receive upfront and potential near-term milestone payments up to $38M and an additional $962M in total development and regulatory approval milestones and sales-based milestones across multiple indications.
Promising autoimmune drug candidate and sufficient cash runway make Dianthus a suitable outlicensing partner for Leads Biolabs. Since LBL-047 is a pre-clinical asset, the upfront payment seems competitive.

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Oct 25

Most Read: Kioxia Holdings , Northern Star Resources, Soft99 Corp, Taiwan Mobile, Pacific Industrial, Yakult Honsha, Doosan Corp, Minmetals Land, Joy City Property and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: ~US$3bn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations; New Ideas
[Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)
Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov
Fresh Policy Momentum Hitting Korea Tape: Trade Is Lining up Around 13 Holdcos with CVC Exposure
Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please
Joy City (207 HK): 17th November Vote On COFCO’s Offer
Joy City Property (207 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 17 November Scheme Vote

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response

Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.
But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: ~US$3bn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations; New Ideas

The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect at least six index changes for the TDIV index. On top of that, there will be capping flows too.

[Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)

When the Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) deal was announced in late July, I said it needed to be done 20-40% higher. I hadn’t expected someone to push so hard.
But Effissimo pushed. They bought 12.5% of shares out, and 13+% of votes at an average price of ¥2,365/share – 15% through terms.
Three months later after multiple extensions, Bidco bid up. +42.4%, to 1.002x March 2025 BVPS. A raging win for activists and minority investors. I’m genuinely surprised by the quantum.

Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov

Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s stock price has continued to slide, and the stock is now trading 53% lower than its highs from 18 months ago.
The lower market cap should result in the stock being deleted from a global index in November. The stock has underperformed peers but still trades at higher valuations.
There has been increased positioning over the last few weeks. Short interest is higher since end-August but there has been covering in the last couple of weeks.

Fresh Policy Momentum Hitting Korea Tape: Trade Is Lining up Around 13 Holdcos with CVC Exposure

Gov’t likely to ease CVC rules; street chatter sees high odds. Tied to KRW150tn Growth Fund push, with corporates lobbying—cleanest path to juice capital flow.
Holdcos at center of CVC‑easing; scrapping disclosure rule unlocks external capital. Street read: fast flip from control towers to re‑rating plays as real investment shops with growth portfolios.
KFTC flags 177 holdcos, 14 with CVCs (13 listed). Street sees momentum flows hitting these 13 names; play via basket/overweight, with Doosan, Hyosung, LX as preferred plays.

Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please

After suspending shares on the 30th September, SOE-Backed, Chinese property play Minmetals Land (230 HK), has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme buyback, from parent China Minmetals.
The Offer Price of HK$1/share, declared final, is a punchy 185.71% premium to last close. And also a 179% premium over the 30th June 2025 NAV. Optically, looks solid also.
Disinterested shareholders hold 38.12%. They should be happy with terms. This should wrap up (perhaps) late February 2026.

Joy City (207 HK): 17th November Vote On COFCO’s Offer

On the 31sr July, Chinese property play Joy City (207 HK) announced a Scheme buyback, @ $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but arguably a 158% premium to undisturbed.
Yes, this was a ~70% discount to NAV. However, Joy City had traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe.
The Scheme Document’s now out, with a Court Meeting on the 17th November and expected payment around the 4th December. The IFA (Somerley) says “fair & reasonable”. It probably is.

Joy City Property (207 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 17 November Scheme Vote

Joy City Property (207 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback by way of a scheme at HK$0.62 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 17 November.
While the offer implies a P/B of 0.29x, it is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
Nevertheless, there remains vote risk and caution is warranted. At the current price and for a 4 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 8.8%/103.6%.

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Oct 24

Most Read: Kioxia Holdings , Northern Star Resources, Yakult Honsha, Pacific Industrial, Taiwan Mobile, Horizon Robotics, The Shanghai Commerical & Sa, Idt International, Gold and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov
[Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: ~US$3bn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations; New Ideas
Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups, Large Pre-IPO Investors Still Holding On
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec25: High-Impact Passive Sell-Off for Shanghai Commercial (5876)
IDT (167 HK): Expect Long-Dated MGO As Major Shareholder Placed In Receivership
Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market
A Sharp Increase in Short Selling Balance in the Korean Stock Market Past Seven Months

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.

Yakult Honsha (2267 JP): Underperformance & Global Index Deletion in Nov

Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s stock price has continued to slide, and the stock is now trading 53% lower than its highs from 18 months ago.
The lower market cap should result in the stock being deleted from a global index in November. The stock has underperformed peers but still trades at higher valuations.
There has been increased positioning over the last few weeks. Short interest is higher since end-August but there has been covering in the last couple of weeks.

[Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)

When the Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) deal was announced in late July, I said it needed to be done 20-40% higher. I hadn’t expected someone to push so hard.
But Effissimo pushed. They bought 12.5% of shares out, and 13+% of votes at an average price of ¥2,365/share – 15% through terms.
Three months later after multiple extensions, Bidco bid up. +42.4%, to 1.002x March 2025 BVPS. A raging win for activists and minority investors. I’m genuinely surprised by the quantum.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec25: ~US$3bn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations; New Ideas

The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect at least six index changes for the TDIV index. On top of that, there will be capping flows too.

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups, Large Pre-IPO Investors Still Holding On

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. Its first set of lockups expired in April 2025. The next one is due soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec25: High-Impact Passive Sell-Off for Shanghai Commercial (5876)

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
We currently see three changes for T50 and three other changes for T100 in December 2025.

IDT (167 HK): Expect Long-Dated MGO As Major Shareholder Placed In Receivership

Consumer electronics play IDT International (167 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. But don’t expect your usual Offer to unfold.
On the 2nd October, IDT announced that Tiger Energy Technology, which holds 72.1% of share out, has been placed into receivership. Tiger Energy is 50% owned by Tiger Chen (ED).
IDT was recently suspended for 581 days after failing to publish its annual results. Upon resumption of trading, predicated on a re-organisation, the major shareholder promptly exited. Without telling anyone.

Gold Part 2: Implied Volatility Dynamics Offer Insight into the Tone of This Bull Market

By John Ley

Gold’s latest surge shows rising implied volatility but little sign of market stress, suggesting limited parallels with the explosive 1980 bull market.
Tuesday’s correction was the largest selloff in 12 years and marked the end of a series of successively larger positive moves.
Rising implied vols and strong Call demand reveal active trading but not the manic levels typically seen near a major blowoff.

A Sharp Increase in Short Selling Balance in the Korean Stock Market Past Seven Months

The net short selling balance in KOSPI reached 12.6 trillion won as of 20 October. This is the largest amount ever.
The top 5 companies in KOSPI with highest short selling balance/market cap ratio include Kakaopay, L&F, Hanmi Semiconductor, Cosmax, and LG H&H.
Net short position In KOSDAQ as a percentage of total KOSDAQ market cap more than doubled from 0.5% as of 31 March to 1.1% as of 21 October 2025.

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✓ Company Analytics and News
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Oct 23

Most Read: Northern Star Resources, Mandarin Oriental International, LG Chem Ltd, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, UBTech Robotics, Sany Heavy Industry, WeRide, Cig Shanghai and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer
UK CPI Trips Into The Fall
Palliser Capital Goes Activist on LG Chem
Korea’s Next Policy Play: NAV Discount Squeeze on Low‑Float Large Caps
SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing (6031 HK): Valuation Insights
UBTech Robotics (9880 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely in November
Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis
WeRide Secondary HK Offering – Is Relatively Cheaper but Lacks Momentum
CIG Shanghai A/H Listing: Smaller A/H Premium than Larger Peers, Expensive

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Matheson’s Full Offer

A sale – partial or otherwise – of Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)‘s One Causeway Bay (OCB) was always on the cards. But I didn’t see an Offer coming.
Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba (9988 HK), Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to take out MAND’s minorities at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
That’s a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Unlike the 2021 Jardine Strategic (JS SP) Offer, Matheson is required to abstain from voting on this takeover.

UK CPI Trips Into The Fall

By Phil Rush

UK inflation’s march higher ended early as expectations tripped over a drop in airfares to slow slightly in September, ahead of slightly falling back through the Fall seasonal.
Weakness elsewhere cut the annualised median rate below 2% for the first time since March. That is likely to be a small soft spot relative to the worrying cumulative upside.
Our forecasts remain close to or below the consensus until June, after other forecasts rose in last month’s survey. We still see wages stoking an excessive underlying trend.

Palliser Capital Goes Activist on LG Chem

Palliser Capital started to go activist on LG Chem. According to Palliser Capital, LG Chem’s share price is trading at a 74% discount to its NAV.
Palliser Capital proposed improving the composition of the board of directors, restructuring the executive compensation system to align with shareholder interests, and higher share buybacks.
Our updated NAV analysis of LG Chem suggests implied price of 613,438 won per share, which represents a 57% higher levels than current levels.

Korea’s Next Policy Play: NAV Discount Squeeze on Low‑Float Large Caps

Market sniffing policy push; low-float names flagged as junk risk with skewed control. Desks circling, Palliser hit early—LG Chem trade popped, timing spot on.
Trade setup: screen >₩1tn caps with low float, parent stakes 60–80%. Policy push likely forces stake cuts, driving float higher and squeezing NAV discounts—LG Chem shows the play.
Screening >₩1tn caps flags 11 names: parents hold 60–80%. All potential stake-sale plays to boost float, squeeze NAV discount.

SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing (6031 HK): Valuation Insights

Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), the world’s third-largest construction machinery company, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.6 billion.
I discussed the H Share listing in SANY Heavy Industry H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
The proposed AH discount of 17.2% to 13.1% (based on the 17 October A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.

UBTech Robotics (9880 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely in November

The increase in the stock price over the last 3 months could result in UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) being added to a global index in November.
There is a fair amount to buy in the stock and cumulative excess volume has picked up since July. Short interest has dropped over the same period.
The recent drop in the stock price provides a better entry point for a short-term trade as positioning builds up ahead of the potential passive buying.

Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Sany Heavy Industry is target price of CNY21.1 per share. This represents 7.6% lower than current price of CNY22.83 per share.
IPO price of Sany Heavy is expected to be set between HKD20.30 and HKD21.30. Our valuation analysis suggests lack of a meaningful upside for Sany Heavy Industry listing in HK.
There are still lack of a major turnaround of the property market in China and this could continue to negatively impact the overall construction equipment market in China.

WeRide Secondary HK Offering – Is Relatively Cheaper but Lacks Momentum

WeRide (WRD US) plans to raise around US$350m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 19th October 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.

CIG Shanghai A/H Listing: Smaller A/H Premium than Larger Peers, Expensive

By Nicholas Tan

Cig Shanghai (603083 CH), telecommunications equipment company, is looking to raise up to US$594m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a provider of critical infrastructure components for the development of AI.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

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Oct 22

Most Read: Softbank Group, Alamos Gold Inc, Remegen , Kakaopay , Pony AI, Pan American Silver, Lynas Corp Ltd, Gold and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: 2 ADDs Expected; US$1.8bn One-Way Flows
Credit Cockroaches Incubating
Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop
Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout
Pony AI Secondary HK Offering – Stock Has Been Volatile, a Look at Possible Trading Setup
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec25 Rebal: Capping Flow Expectations Limited
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible
The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals
Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop

Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap

Softbank Group (9984 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
Nearly half of Softbank Group‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.
Softbank Group has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: 2 ADDs Expected; US$1.8bn One-Way Flows

The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally. Last month the index inorganically gained significant tracking AUM.
This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event are presented here.
We expect 2 high-conviction ADDs for December 2025, with one-way flow of US$1.85bn. Healthy start for this new-ish index.

Credit Cockroaches Incubating

By Phil Rush

Write-downs at two regional banks follow the cockroaches of First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies, and should not be dismissed as isolated idiosyncratic events.
Overly accommodative monetary conditions are stimulating markets to incubate cockroach eggs that may spawn as private credit malinvestment in the next recession.
It is too early for these eggs to hatch, aided by the warm support of further Fed rate cuts. So, risk assets will probably keep on rising in the void of economic data releases.

Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop

After a huge upward move earlier this year, Remegen (9995 HK)‘s stock has started to drop as the sector starts to give back some of its gains.
Despite the recent correction, Remegen (9995 HK) should be added to a global index in November and that could help the stock outperform its peers.
There appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar trend across stocks in the industry.

Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout

Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.

Pony AI Secondary HK Offering – Stock Has Been Volatile, a Look at Possible Trading Setup

Pony AI (PONY US) plans to raise around US$1bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
The company won HK listing approval and filed its PHIP on 17th October 2025. It will look to launch its secondary offering soon.
In this note, we’ll take a look at the deal and talk about the impact of the raising.

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec25 Rebal: Capping Flow Expectations Limited

The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$186mm for December 2025 due to capping/re-capping.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals

In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.
The US and Australia will each “provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months“
Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including Arafura Resources (ARU AU).

Gold: Reviewing Five Decades of Bull Markets Against an Overextended Backdrop

By John Ley

Gold’s rally shows signs of overextension but the volatility footprint differs from prior rallies.
We exam major bull markets over the past 50 years to assess how the current move stacks up.
Fund flows and the sources of buying pressure are analyzed to gauge the rally’s sustainability.

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Oct 21

Most Read: Kioxia Holdings , Barito Renewables Energy, Sany Heavy Industry, Digital Holdings Inc, Softbank Group, Tekscend Photomask, Kakaopay , Remegen and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang
Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion
[Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible
Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer
ECM Weekly (20 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, JST, Fibocom, Tekscend, FineToday, LG India, DIY, Duality
Sany Heavy Industries A/H IPO Pricing – Thoughts on Valuations
Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout
Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)‘s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.

Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion

Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) could raise up to HK$16.35bn (US$2.1bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 24 November following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Digital HD (2389 JP) Gets a Counter + 20% – Tough But Not Impossible

Today, in something of a surprise but not a complete surprise, Silvercape came out with its own bid for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at +20% from the Hakuhodo bid.
They make it clear that the original bid does not protect minority shareholders or give them sufficient value. This one would. Which means that is Hakuhodo’s bogey.
It would not be impossible for Silvercape to get to its minimum hurdle, but despite being lower than Hakuhodo’s it’s not a gimme.

Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap

Softbank Group (9984 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
Nearly half of Softbank Group‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.
Softbank Group has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer.
The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
The situation shares similarities with Soft99’s contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances.

ECM Weekly (20 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, JST, Fibocom, Tekscend, FineToday, LG India, DIY, Duality

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, India saw a host of listing, while HK is gearing up a busy year end.
On the placements front, we had a look at some of the IPO lockups. There weren’t any large placements this week.

Sany Heavy Industries A/H IPO Pricing – Thoughts on Valuations

Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) aims to raise around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing.
Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Dec KS200 Review: Kakao Pay Poised for Breakout

Names with the biggest float bumps relative to their old float saw the sharpest moves — Hanwha Ocean and Ecopro Materials were the standout examples.
Kakao Pay looks set for Dec review spotlight: float likely jumping from 21% to 34% (+13ppt, 60%+ surge), even bigger than Hanwha Ocean/Ecopro last round.
Kakao Pay’s 13ppt float hike implies ~0.7–1.0x DTV passive inflows; with little pre‑positioning, flows may hit raw and drive outsized intraday impact.

Remegen (9995 HK): Index Inclusion as Sector Starts to Drop