Most Read

After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.

Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading – Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.
TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble

Genting (GENT MK)‘s Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) is further evidence of the gaming group’s move for even greater U.S. exposure.
Preceding my comments on GENT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK): Volatility Increases as Global Index Inclusion Nears

The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.

Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor

Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.

Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves

Supreme Court divorce ruling for Chairman Chey (17.9% owner) hits tomorrow 10 a.m., likely driving intraday swings.
Chey’s wealth is mainly SK Inc (17.8%) and SK Siltron (29.6%). With half SK Inc shares tied, only SK Siltron offers liquidity, but it still falls short of his needs.
If the Supreme Court surprises, Chey may act on SK Inc shares, fueling a management/control narrative. Payments are due immediately, so SK Inc could see bigger intraday swings than expected.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling

The NSW court has dismissed all Cosette claims relating to terminating its scheme implementation deed with Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
While Cosette can appeal, the chances that the judgment will be overturned are low due to the comprehensive judgment.
The ruling will provide more certainty regarding the interpretation of MACs. The scheme is subject to FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming. At the last close, the spread was 30.7%.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): Global Index Inclusion, Outperformance & The A/H Trade

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)‘s stock price has surged over the last 6 months, and the higher free float market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) has outperformed its peers and is trading at higher valuations on most metrics. Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) is trading a lot cheaper.
The Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (002460 CH) / Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) premium has drifted lower and there could be a move higher as we near index inclusion.

Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion

The recent rally has taken Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)‘ stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.
Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.
While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk

In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns.

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Oct 15

Most Read: Hang Seng Bank, Genting Malaysia, Bullish US, China Gold International Resources, JX Advanced Metals, Ebara Corp, Duality Biotherapeutics, Hanwha Ocean , Samsung Electronics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning
Duality Bio IPO Lockup – US$2.7bn Lockup Release, with Lots of CCASS Movement
Hanwha Ocean: Negative Impact from Chinese Government’s Efforts to Crack Down on U.S. Subsidiaries
An Update of Our 2025 High Conviction Pick: Samsung Electronics

Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Offer: HSBC Investors Are Not Sold On The Strategic Benefits

Since announcing HSBC (5 HK)‘s Offer, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has traded tight-ish to terms, at a ~3.9% gross spread (including dividends). Or ~10% annualised if a five month offramp.
Annualised spreads for clean liquid deals in Asia-Pac, do tend to widen after day 1. Meaning, the gross spread remains roughly static as investors hit their full quota early on.
HSBC shareholders are questioning the deal merits. For Hang Seng minorities, this is a great exit. Inside this report, I take a deeper dive into Hong Kong bank takeover precedents.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update.
They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too.

China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.

UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market

Most narratives can find some support in the latest labour market report, preserving uncertainty that should keep the BoE on hold at least until some clarity emerges.
Unemployment has increased (LFS) or stabilised (payrolls), while pay is shockingly resurgent (inc-bonuses), slowing as expected (ex-bonus) or stagnating (private pay).
Weakness isn’t as clear as the consensus and press sometimes make out, but concerns aren’t invalidated. We still expect resilience to preserve excess inflation hawkishly.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)‘s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.

Duality Bio IPO Lockup – US$2.7bn Lockup Release, with Lots of CCASS Movement

Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK)‘ s raised around US$200m in its Hong Kong listing in April 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone and pre-IPO investors is set to expire today.
Duality is a biopharma company focused primarily on the independent discovery and development of antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) assets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Hanwha Ocean: Negative Impact from Chinese Government’s Efforts to Crack Down on U.S. Subsidiaries

By Douglas Kim

Chinese government’s efforts to ban Hanwha Ocean’s five U.S. subsidiaries from conducting any transactions with organizations or individuals in China is likely to have material Negative impact on Hanwha Ocean.
If Hanwha’s U.S. subsidiaries are banned from Chinese suppliers, they’ll need to source alternatives (Japan, Europe, or domestic U.S. firms), that could involve 20–50% higher costs with longer lead times.
Basically, what’s going on is that the Chinese government wants to slow down the United States’ efforts to rebuild its shipbuilding sector with the help of Korean shipbuilders.

An Update of Our 2025 High Conviction Pick: Samsung Electronics

By Douglas Kim

Back on 6 November 2024, we published an insight called 2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics. In this insight, we provide an update of Samsung Electronics.
Samsung Electronics reported operating profit of 12.1 trillion won (up 31.8% YoY and 18.7% higher than consensus) in 3Q 2025.
The final installment of the 12 trillion won+ inheritance tax is due in April 2026.

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Oct 14

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Lynas Corp Ltd, Zijin Gold, AAC Technologies Holdings, Bullish US, RPMGlobal Holdings Limited, Genting Malaysia, China Gold International Resources, JX Advanced Metals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer
Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way
[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock
RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.
Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.
Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
We expect one index change and roughly US$1.7bn in one-way index flows in December 2025.

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation Anncmt Suggests The Big M Will Delete 1 LargeCap, 5 Small.

Global Index Provider M _ _ _ announced an index consultation on Digital Asset Treausry Companies on 27 August. Friday, they extended til year-end, but gave a clear proposal update.
They propose to exclude companies where digital asset holdings represent >50% of assets. They seek input. They also seek input on whether a company self-defines as a DAT…
And also look at stated reasons for capital raising. A preliminary list suggests Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (3350 JP) are obvious targets. Others will be too.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar Firms A$5/Share Offer

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a Scheme with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
Caterpillar, which currently holds no shares in RPMGlobal, is offering A$5/share (the same as in the NBIO), a 32.8% premium to undisturbed. Terms have not been declared final.
FIRB and ACCC approvals are conditions. FIRB won’t be an issue. The key ACCC question is whether the combo has significant direct market overlap that triggers substantial competition concerns.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Genting Bhd (GENT MK) at RM2.35, a 9.8% premium to the last close price of RM2.14.
The 50% minimum acceptance condition is easily met as Genting is the largest shareholder, representing 49.36% of outstanding shares.
Genting’s preferred endgame is to delist GENM, thereby fully benefiting if GENM successfully bids for a downstate New York casino licence. Therefore, there is a good chance of a bump.

China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.

RPMGlobal (RUL AU): Caterpillar’s Binding Proposal at A$5.00

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) at A$5.00 per share, a 32.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The key scheme conditions are RPM shareholder, FIRB and ACCC approval. RPM’s benign shareholder structure facilitates completion.
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.7%/7.8%.

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Oct 13

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Alibaba, SIMMTECH Co Ltd, Dongfeng Motor, Hanon Systems, Lynas Corp Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, BYD Electronics, Zijin Gold, AAC Technologies Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks
Hunting Trades in Korea Semis Materials & Equip ETF Ahead of the Dec Rebalance
Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng, Hang Seng, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Pacific Ind, Mandom
Hanon Systems Rights Deal Suddenly Heating Up for CJ CGV–Style Arb as Hahn & Co Confirms Sitting Out
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Expected ADDs Strongly Outperforming Expected DELs
Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.
Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.

Hunting Trades in Korea Semis Materials & Equip ETF Ahead of the Dec Rebalance

Next rebalance is Dec 12; Simmtech (222800 KS) looks set to replace Philoptics, with a KRW 0.8T market cap gap making it a high-conviction front-runner.
Dongjin Semicam and Daeduck clear market cap but face keyword-score risk; PSK Holdings vs S&S Tech is tight — final screening will decide, so front-running carries caution.
December rebalance AUM doubled; Simmtech and Philoptics could see ~1x DTV passive flows, likely triggering an even stronger passive price impact than last cycle.

Merger Arb Mondays (13 Oct) – Dongfeng, Hang Seng, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Pacific Ind, Mandom

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU).

Hanon Systems Rights Deal Suddenly Heating Up for CJ CGV–Style Arb as Hahn & Co Confirms Sitting Out

Hahn & Co, holding 21.63% of Hanon, won’t join the rights issue, raising the odds of a CJ CGV–style stock rights dump hitting the market.
Hanon’s rights float mirrors CJ CGV (~17% post-ESOP), with Hahn & Co likely to sell, limited local demand, and potential follow-on selling pressure.
Hanon’s 50% rights at 15% discount offer smaller float than CJ CGV, but larger deal size and weak EV sentiment create a potential CJ CGV–style arb, with SSF tradability.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): U.S. Stocks Plunged on October 10 Under Heavy Selling Pressure.

By Patrick Liao

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on China.
Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.
Facing the escalation of the U.S.–China tariff war, U.S. stocks plunged on October 10 under heavy selling pressure.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Expected ADDs Strongly Outperforming Expected DELs

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
In this insight, we take a look at the December 2025 index capping flows.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2026.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.
Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.
Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: Final Ranks; US$1.7bn One-Way

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
We expect one index change and roughly US$1.7bn in one-way index flows in December 2025.

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Oct 12

Most Read: Chery Automobile, Ramelius Resources, Tata Motors, Zijin Gold, Advantest Corp, Vingroup Jsc, Alibaba, Hang Seng Index, ReNew Energy Global , Hang Seng Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December
Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks
Market Sell-Off (Oct 10): How Asian Index ETFs Responded to Market Slide
ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO
Weekly Deals Digest (12 Oct) – Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Infomedia, Tekscend

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.
NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December

In a pick-up in primary market activity, there have been 25 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in Q3.
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) will be added to the HSCI after market close on 15 October and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 27 October.
There could be 4 (maybe 5) additions to the HSCI Index in December and 3 of those stocks will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open 8 December.

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.
Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.
Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.

Market Sell-Off (Oct 10): How Asian Index ETFs Responded to Market Slide

By John Ley

A renewed tariff threat from Trump sparked a sharp, sell-off across North American Equity markets.
The sell off was broad based and accordingly we look at the performance of Asian Index ETF’s that trade in North America to help prepare for Monday’s price action.
Implied volatility, price and option volume are displayed for each symbol.

ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO

Back on the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.
The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
ReNew’s Special Committee will provide “public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025“.

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Oct) – Hang Seng Bank, Soft99, Toyota Industries, Infomedia, Tekscend

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: FineToday Holdings (420A JP), Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN), LG Electronics India (123D IN), JST Group (1703609D CH) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU).

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Oct 11

Most Read: Hang Seng Bank, Vingroup Jsc, Soft99 Corp, FineToday Holdings, BeiGene , iFAST, Yum China Holdings , Maynilad Water Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSBC (5 HK)’s Clean Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities
Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response
FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case
Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec25: BeOne, Innovent, & Other Potential Surprises
Asian Equities: A Few Singapore Small and Mid-Cap Jewels
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Final Ranks; Three ADDs/DELs Likely
UK: Poor Productivity Paradigms
Maynilad Water Services IPO – Recent Updates, Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

HSBC (5 HK)’s Clean Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has announced an Offer from controlling parent (63.3551%), HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme, in a HK$106bn (US$13.6bn) deal.
The Scheme Consideration is HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price is final. A “third interim dividend” will be added. Optically, the price is bang on.
The long stop for conditions is the 30th September 2026. I think this transaction can be wrapped up in around five months.

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response

Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.
But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.
The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage.

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from HSBC Holdings (5 HK) at HK$155, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
Based on an estimated 2025 third dividend of HK$1.3 per share, the total consideration is HK$156.30 per share. The offer price is final.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/6.2%.

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec25: BeOne, Innovent, & Other Potential Surprises

The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in December 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 21st November 2025.

Asian Equities: A Few Singapore Small and Mid-Cap Jewels

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

Singapore’s stellar performance has been propelled primarily by large caps. We think investors should focus on SMID now, as MAS’s S$5bn EQDP incentivizes fund managers to look outside index stocks.
We screen SMID stocks in SGX with above-market forecast earnings growth, EPS estimate upgrades over past 6 months, low leverage and reasonable growth adjusted valuations (PEG<1.4x).
Eight SMID stocks come up on our screen, spread across various sectors, but tilted towards Energy and Minerals and Mining. Most are net cash companies with ROEs higher than COEs.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Final Ranks; Three ADDs/DELs Likely

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2025.
We expect three ADDs and three DELs for December 2025. We also estimate there to be US$303mn in one-way flows.

UK: Poor Productivity Paradigms

The OBR looks likely to trim its productivity trend assumption to 1%, which would still be a bullish break from the current stagnation. Trends rarely break outside recessions.
High taxes are squeezing the most productive and being transferred to the inactive. It should not be surprising that the UK’s political choices have stalled productivity.
We see no reason to think the UK will pull off an internationally exceptional jobs-light boom from here. Ongoing stagnation would extend the UK’s rule for fiscal slippage.

Maynilad Water Services IPO – Recent Updates, Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.
MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing

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Oct 10

Most Read: Hang Seng Bank, Sony Financial Group, Vingroup Jsc, Kokusai Electric , Sun Corp, Soft99 Corp, BeiGene , InnoScience Suzhou Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSBC (5 HK)’s Fair Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities
[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market
Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown
[Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736) Gets ANOTHER Public Activist – ValueAct Reports 7.9%
Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Potential Outcomes as the Board Responds to Effissimo Allegations
[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec25: BeOne, Innovent, & Other Potential Surprises
Innoscience Suzhou Tech Placement – Selling Ahead of Lockup Expiry, Relatively Small

HSBC (5 HK)’s Fair Offer for Hang Seng (11 HK)’s Minorities

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) has announced an Offer from controlling parent (63.3551%), HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme, in a HK$106bn (US$13.6bn) deal.
The Scheme Consideration is HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price is final. A “third interim dividend” will be added. Optically, the price is bang on.
The long stop for conditions is the 30th September 2026. I think this transaction can be wrapped up in around five months.

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) started ToSTNeT-3 buybacks last week and did one this week to jumpstart the buyback, cushioning the Nikkei 225 deletion on 29 Sep and subsequent overhang.
In three ToSTNeT-3 buybacks in 6 trading days spending ¥28.9bn, the company bought back 177.513mm shares or 2.5% of shares out, or about 6.2% of Max Real World Float (MRWF).
With ¥71.1bn left, at last that’s 460mm shares, or 16.2% of MRWF. Over 10mos that is 1.62%/month. That will boost Mar26 DPS, Mar27 DPS projections, EPS, etc.

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR’s lockup would expire about now in [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?
Today post-close, Applied Materials (AMAT US) announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%.
This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR’s last bit. Perhaps to come soon?

[Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736) Gets ANOTHER Public Activist – ValueAct Reports 7.9%

Today after the close, Value Act reported that it owned 7.87% of shares outstanding in Sun Corp (6736 JP) and it may make proposals to management.
This has been trading cheaply (and I pointed it out on 13 Aug and 12 Sep). Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) is up 35% in those 8 weeks. Sun Corp +50%.
ValueAct had owned 4.9+% for at least a few months before, but now it has gone public. They were likely in already under a different name in March, now public.

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from HSBC Holdings (5 HK) at HK$155, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
Based on an estimated 2025 third dividend of HK$1.3 per share, the total consideration is HK$156.30 per share. The offer price is final.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/6.2%.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Potential Outcomes as the Board Responds to Effissimo Allegations

The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has responded to Effissimo’s allegations. As expected, the Board accuses Effissimo of stating half-truths.
The Board’s missive indirectly suggests that incremental acceptances since October 1 have been tepid, KeePer has not tendered, and the MBO is struggling to meet the minimum tendering condition.
The two likeliest outcomes are 1) the MBO succeeds at current terms with KeePer likely joining BidCo, and 2) both offers fail. The risk/reward is unattractive at the last close.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Rebuts Effissimo’s Rebuttal. Still An Awful “Fiduciary” Response

Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.
But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec25: BeOne, Innovent, & Other Potential Surprises

The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in December 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 21st November 2025.

Innoscience Suzhou Tech Placement – Selling Ahead of Lockup Expiry, Relatively Small

InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) aims to raise around US$200m in its Hong Kong placement.
Innoscience was only listed in Dec 2024 and it undertook another primary raising in July 2025, the lockup for which has yet to expire.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Oct 09

Most Read: Quanta Computer, Taekwang Industrial, Kokusai Electric , Japan Post Bank, Sony Financial Group, Johns Lyng, Vingroup Jsc, Advantest Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade
Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics
[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown
The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal – $35bn of Flows To Trade
[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market
Johns Lyng (JLG AU): 8th October Vote On PEP’s Offer
Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
[Quiddity Index] HUGE Rally Brings Advantest to Nikkei Capping Territory
Kokusai Electric Placement – Unexpected Seller but Relatively Small Deal
US Shutdown: A Means To An End

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.
There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.

Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics

KRX may preemptively adjust KOSPI 200 screening, switching from full market cap to market cap excluding treasury shares for index inclusion.
With treasury-share cancellation likely this quarter, KRX may act before June ’26. For December KOSPI 200, we should run both full-cap and ex-treasury screens; flows could behave unusually.
Focusing on Hanssem (009240 KS) and Taekwang (003240 KS); borderline, high treasury shares, potential KOSPI 200 exclusion, making them key flow-sensitive setups for December reshuffle.

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR’s lockup would expire about now in [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?
Today post-close, Applied Materials (AMAT US) announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%.
This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR’s last bit. Perhaps to come soon?

The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal – $35bn of Flows To Trade

Once every quarter the TSE reassesses free float weights for a set of companies whose fiscal years ended 7-10 months prior. Calendar Q1 is the biggie so October is too.
This year, as companies have made dramatic changes in their shareholder registries through crossholder sales, activist acquisitions, and other, there are some big changes and big dollar changes.
We see nearly 600 FFW changes up and down, and then nearly 1,100 stocks which see a significant (average 0.5x ADV) funding trade. $35bn in total.

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) started ToSTNeT-3 buybacks last week and did one this week to jumpstart the buyback, cushioning the Nikkei 225 deletion on 29 Sep and subsequent overhang.
In three ToSTNeT-3 buybacks in 6 trading days spending ¥28.9bn, the company bought back 177.513mm shares or 2.5% of shares out, or about 6.2% of Max Real World Float (MRWF).
With ¥71.1bn left, at last that’s 460mm shares, or 16.2% of MRWF. Over 10mos that is 1.62%/month. That will boost Mar26 DPS, Mar27 DPS projections, EPS, etc.

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): 8th October Vote On PEP’s Offer

On the 11th July, PEP offered A$4/share for integrated building services provider Johns Lyng (JLG AU), a 77% premium to undisturbed. CEO Scott Didier, JLG’s largest shareholder (17.62%), was supportive.
Pricing is okay. The absence of a final year fully franked dividend, which was teased at the onset, was ostensibly disappointing.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 8th October, and expected implementation on or before the 23rd October. The IE (Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.

[Quiddity Index] HUGE Rally Brings Advantest to Nikkei Capping Territory

Monday’s huge post-election move in Nikkei 225 and Advantest Corp (6857 JP) caused Advantest to clear 10.00% realtime at day-end. Assuming nothing changes til end-Jan-2026, Advantest gets capped at end-Mar-2026
As of today, that would be roughly 1.6x ADV and US$2.75bn but it would be 10% of Max Real World Float.
This is far off but should stay on the radar. Softbank Group (9984 JP) is close behind at 8.7%. 15+% outperformance would put it in capping territory too.

Kokusai Electric Placement – Unexpected Seller but Relatively Small Deal

Applied Materials (AMAT US) is looking to raise approximately US$330m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 4.5% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) stock.
KE had seen two selldown earlier, from KKR, with mixed results. KKR just came out of its last lockup.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

US Shutdown: A Means To An End

By Alastair Newton

The Democrats opted for a US government shutdown despite the Administration being well prepared for what it sees as an opportunity to promote its longer-term agenda.
While they hold out, the president’s ‘grim reaper’, OMB Director Russell Vought, will have a free hand to cut the size of government and pursue his unitary executive vision.
Some of his actions will undoubtedly be challenged in the courts, but the signs are that the Supreme Court will continue to side firmly with the Administration.

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Oct 08

Most Read: Sony Financial Group, Advantest Corp, Dongfeng Motor, Zijin Gold, Orion Breweries, Quanta Computer, FineToday Holdings, Taekwang Industrial, Tekscend Photomask and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over, Company Buys Back, ADR Selldown Awaits?
Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials
Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2025)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade
FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case
Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics
Tekscend Photomask IPO: Market Leader with Strong Prospects Ahead
US: Steady As She Shuts

[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over, Company Buys Back, ADR Selldown Awaits?

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) listed on Monday with a “Reference Price of ¥150. It opened at ¥205, quickly running to ¥210, then fell to ¥198 by lunch. Close? ¥173.8.
That got a big ToSTNeT-3 buyback at ¥173.8. It traded lower on Day 2, closing at ¥164. Then lower still on Weds with another TN-3 buyback now ¥159.4.
Neither buyback was full. SFGI has bought back 124mm shares. But the stock has fallen hard. ADRs/ADSs start trading Tuesday. That could see more selling.

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.
Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials

On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

By Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.
Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.
For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2025)

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Section-Transfer name Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) is expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of October 2025.
New listings Orion Breweries (409A JP) and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) are expected to be included in TOPIX at the end of October 2025 and November 2025 respectively.

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade

The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.
There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.
The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage.

Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

KRX may preemptively adjust KOSPI 200 screening, switching from full market cap to market cap excluding treasury shares for index inclusion.
With treasury-share cancellation likely this quarter, KRX may act before June ’26. For December KOSPI 200, we should run both full-cap and ex-treasury screens; flows could behave unusually.
Focusing on Hanssem (009240 KS) and Taekwang (003240 KS); borderline, high treasury shares, potential KOSPI 200 exclusion, making them key flow-sensitive setups for December reshuffle.

Tekscend Photomask IPO: Market Leader with Strong Prospects Ahead

Established in 2022, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) (previously Toppan Photomask) is the world’s leading semiconductor photomask supplier, holding a global market share of 38.9%.
Tekscend provides a diverse portfolio of high-precision photomasks for semiconductors, displays, MEMS, and R&D, including cutting-edge EUV masks, leveraging its expertise in microfabrication.
The company is planning for a listing on TSE on 16th October and plans to raise proceeds of around US$800m through a combination of existing and new share issues.

US: Steady As She Shuts

The US government shutdown causes vital economic data to go dark, leaving the Fed facing market pressure to blindly cut rates as priced, creating risks of policy error.
Both parties see strategic value in prolonging the shutdown, risking disruption that lasts well beyond historical norms. But levels will rebound when it inevitably ends.
In the interim, private surveys signal weakness, and this picture is unlikely to improve significantly enough to block cuts in 2025, but that won’t drive more Fed cuts in 2026.

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Oct 07

Most Read: Tata Motors, Pacific Industrial, Zijin Gold, Advantest Corp, Dongfeng Motor, Mandom Corp, Sanil Electric, Predictive Discovery and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications
Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside
[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December
Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials
[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Sees Murakami Pushing Harder, Now at 16.59%
HEM: Oct-25 Views & Challenges
[Quiddity Index] Oct25 KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: Still 6+6, New 1.5 Pairs to Trade
Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.
NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside

On 22 August, Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative.
Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85.

[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms

Activist-Ish-Y investor Effissimo reported Friday they had a 6.68% stake as of the end of August.
Their average price is ¥2,253 which is 10% through the price the family Bidco was bidding (¥2,050).
As this hasn’t traded below terms at any point since announcement, an extension was likely. This morning, we got one. We’ll get another one before it’s done, BUT…

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in December

In a pick-up in primary market activity, there have been 25 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in Q3.
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) will be added to the HSCI after market close on 15 October and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 27 October.
There could be 4 (maybe 5) additions to the HSCI Index in December and 3 of those stocks will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open 8 December.

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.
Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials

On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.

[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Sees Murakami Pushing Harder, Now at 16.59%

Four weeks ago, CVC announced a family-led MBO of hair care and cosmetics company Mandom Corp (4917 JP) at a price which was decidedly too light, well below company plans.
One activist wrote a letter clearly calling them out for accepting a low-ball price well below the Medium Term Management Plan target. Another bought a lot of shares.
On 25 September, Murakami-san and affiliates reported an 8.39% position. Seven trading days later it is 16.59% and the shares are up small from my last piece + 1.

HEM: Oct-25 Views & Challenges

Hawkish inflation and policy rate pricing shifts toward our UK/EA view did not stop US rates frontloading more cuts.
We still see markets overpricing easing, with UK inflation expectations stuck above target, and neutral rates high.
A break in activity data, especially unemployment, and underlying price/wage inflation, would threaten our view.

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: Still 6+6, New 1.5 Pairs to Trade

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX). It’s popular.
87% of the reference period for the December 2025 rebal is complete. We see up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs. Obvious ADD vs Downweight trades have not worked recently.
Of the “1.5 pairs” I liked last time which worked fundamentally, both are down hard. Trades here are rotated.

Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals