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• In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap. 
• On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
• The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.

• There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
• The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

• On 27 August, Metaplanet (3350 JP) announced a large overseas offering in line with a pause in the 20th Warrant Issuance program it had outstanding. The goal? Buy more bitcoin.
• Shares had been ¥890 on the 27th, trading higher through the 29th. The offering priced at ¥553. Down 38%. Ouch. But it meant index upweight due to higher share count.
• Friday post-close, global index provider M _ _ _ announced a consultation on digital asset treasury companies, suspending the upweight for Metaplanet. Watch out MSTR!

• There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.

• More than eight years have passed since Chairman Chey first filed for a divorce from this wife Roh So-young in July 2017.
• This divorce case has finally reached the Supreme Court of Korea. Although the final outcome still remains unknown, it appears that this divorce case is finally coming to an end. 
• We also provide an NAV analysis of SK Inc. Our NAV valuation of SK Inc suggests implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won which is 42% higher than current levels.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
• On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.

• Centurion Accomodation REIT (CAREIT SP) (CAREIT) plans to raise around US$600m in its Singapore listing.
• CAREIT plans to invest directly or indirectly, in a portfolio of purpose-built worker accommodation (PBWA), purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) or other accommodation, located globally (excluding Malaysia).
• In this note, we look at the REIT’s portfolio and performance.

• Friday post-close the MarketVector™️ Global Gold Miners Index announced its rebalance changes and as a result, the flows for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF are known.
• As per the expectations of our Quiddity Index PS, the MVGDX added only Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) resulting in 8 ADDs and 24 DELs for the VanEck benchmark change.
• The significant move in gold prices the last month have more than doubled the deletion/capping flow total to $12.6bn. There are some REALLY big flows here. 

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$3bn.  
• I previously discussed the IPO and outlined my investment thesis in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case. 
• In this note, I take a look at the new information from the PHIP. The 1H25 results and latest developments underscore my previous bullish thesis. 

• The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
• In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the September 2025 index rebal event.
• Separately, we expect at least two index changes during the next index review in December 2025.

• Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS) will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.
• The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.
• Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.

• There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index while there are no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.
• Encore Energy (EU US) will replace Boss Energy (BOE AU) in the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index. 
• The round-trip trade across both indices is US$445m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

• There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
• The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

• On 12 September, Kyodo News reported that Effissimo Capital Management will launch a competing tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, 66.3% higher than the JPY2,465 MBO offer.
• The Effissimo offer structure has been designed to shine an unflattering spotlight on the MBO low-ball offer and to prevent management from privatising Soft99.  
• The management has several options to respond. The initial play will likely be to lean on the special committee to question the feasibility of the Effissimo bid. 

• There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell. 
• There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading. 
• SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap. 
• On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
• The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.

• FPT Corp,Vietnam Airlines Jsc, Sacombank and Gelex Electricity Jsc will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 19 September.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 9.5% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$112m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
• The largest passive inflow will be in Masan Group (MSN VN) following a large increase in the free float for the stock.

• There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.

• KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX). It’s popular.
• Inside, we look at the names likely to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2025. We see up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs.
• There are 1.5 pairs I like here even though we have weeks left. One is “surer” than the other, but they both work fundamentally.

For our next Corporate Webinar, engageIR by Smartkarma is glad to welcome StarHub Ltd (STH SP)’s CEO, Mr. Nikhil Eapen.

In the upcoming webinar, Nikhil will share a short company presentation after which he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Alec Tseung. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 17 September 2025, 17:00 SGT.

About StarHub

StarHub is a leading homegrown Singapore company that delivers world-class communications,
entertainment, and digital services. With their extensive fibre and wireless infrastructure and
global partnerships, they bring to people, homes and enterprises quality mobile and fixed
services, a broad suite of premium content, and a diverse range of communication solutions. They develop and deliver solutions incorporating artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, data analytics, Internet of Things, and robotics for corporate and government clients.

StarHub is committed to conducting their business sustainably and responsibly. StarHub is named among TIME’s World’s Most Sustainable Companies 2025 and ranked as the world’s most
sustainable wireless telecommunication provider on the Corporate Knights Global 100 (2025).
StarHub also ranks 187 on the FORTUNE Southeast Asia 500 in 2025. Listed on the Singapore
Exchange mainboard, StarHub is a component stock of the SGX iEdge Singapore Low Carbon
Index, iEdge-OCBC Singapore Low Carbon Select 50 Capped Index; as well as the FTSE4Good
Index series.

For more information on StarHub, please visit https://ir.starhub.com/

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
• The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
• The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.

• On 11 Sep 2025 after the close, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) announced a takeunder of Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) in MBO form. 
• Two major holders with 37% roll their stakes into new ownership in Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) and another 17+% probably just fall in line.
• Foreigners hold a lot. They may not like the takeunder. It is not clear who would buy this if Hakuhodo does not, or whether it is worth the hassle.

• Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS) will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.
• The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.
• Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.

• There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index while there are no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.
• Encore Energy (EU US) will replace Boss Energy (BOE AU) in the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index. 
• The round-trip trade across both indices is US$445m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

• There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell. 
• There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the next two weeks (12 to 26 September 2025).
• Our top 10 picks were up on average 7.4% from 29 August to 12 September, outperforming KOSPI which was up 6.6% in the same period.
• Top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include KCC Corp, Nongshim Holdings, KT&G, Paradise, Samsung Life Insurance, Hana Financial, SK Inc, CJ Corp, Lg Chem, and Lotte Tour Development.

• Lee slammed NPS’s logic, questioning its local equity cuts; Friday, the fund responded with ₩186.3bn net KOSPI buys — biggest since his inauguration.
• NPS sat out September’s rally, so Friday’s ₩186bn KOSPI buy looks like a reactive pivot to Lee’s comments, sparking local desks’ chatter and weekend buzz.
• KOSPI mid-caps with big NPS stakes (~5%+) could see short-term buying, as reactive flows follow Presidential Office chatter, with mid-caps below KRW 5tn offering the biggest price impact.

• Mitsubishi Electric’s $1 billion acquisition of Nozomi Networks is a strategic move to continue its transition from hardware manufacturing to a leading solutions provider in the expanding industrial cybersecurity market.
• This significant deal is expected to create growth and synergy by combining complementary strengths in operational technology (OT) security.
• The acquisition represents a major commitment to digital transformation, which is anticipated to have a positive impact on Mitsubishi Electric’s stock performance in the 5-10 year horizon.

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Mandom Corp (4917 JP) and Digital Holdings (2389 JP). Also, Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
• Key updates/news took place on PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK), Topcon Corp (7732 JP), and Furukawa Battery (6937 JP).

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
• The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
• The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.

• 12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.
• The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.
• Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm…

• NIO (9866 HK) / NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.
• The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. NIO (NIO US) closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect NIO (9866 HK) to open around HK$44.55/share.
• There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) trackers is more nuanced.

• On 10 September, the founding Nishimura family, the PE Firm CVC, and Mandom Corp (4917 JP) agreed that the first two could take over the latter at 4.9x Mar28 EBITDA.
• A cocktail napkin calculation of expected leverage suggests the equity check is buying this at 5x average Mar27-28 free cash flow. That’s cheap for a growing company.
• The register is open enough to cause problems but not open enough to allow a clean hostile bid by a strategic. But still open enough for someone to have fun.

• Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.
• Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.
• Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.

• In Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK): Offer Expected As Parent (Likely) Exits., I speculated on the outcome of Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) (EPS)’s suspension due to the Takeovers Code. 
• EPS has now announced that the liquidators for Evergrande (3333 HK) have been fielding non-binding Offers for Evergrande’s 51.016% stake in EPS. Final proposals are expected to be submitted by November.
• With a view to maximizing proceeds, the liquidators will ideally seek a sole bidder, leading to a change of control. And an unconditional MGO.  Shares resume trading this morning.

• On 11 Sep 2025 after the close, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) announced a takeunder of Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) in MBO form. 
• Two major holders with 37% roll their stakes into new ownership in Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) and another 17+% probably just fall in line.
• Foreigners hold a lot. They may not like the takeunder. It is not clear who would buy this if Hakuhodo does not, or whether it is worth the hassle.

• Kiri Industries has signed a deal to sell its 37.6% stake in DyStar Global to Zhejiang Longsheng for US$697 million (~INR 5,800 crore), concluding a decade-long Singapore court battle.
• The payout is multiple times Kiri’s current market cap and marks one of the strongest minority shareholder wins globally.
• The DyStar exit removes litigation overhang and hands Kiri a war chest. Now, execution of the copper and fertilizer project will define the future of the company.

• Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) made headlines in the market after approving share buyback worth INR 180 bn at INR 1800 per share.
• The buyback is the largest in company’s history and represents 2.4% of the paid up capital. 
• However, from the shareholders lens, the buyback would be tax-inefficient, after the regulatory changes which came in effect from Oct 2024.

• Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK) (CJ), which is principally engaged in the distribution of consumer electronic products, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
• Sichuan Changhong Electric Co, Ltd. (600839 CH) holds ~60.13% of the shares outstanding. And 100% of the preference shares (76.7% of shares out). 
• This week, a final judgement, concerning monies owed, was ruled in CJ’s favour. The sum involved is ~30% of CJ’s market cap. 

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
• The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
• The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.

• NIO (9866 HK) / NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.
• The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. NIO (NIO US) closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect NIO (9866 HK) to open around HK$44.55/share.
• There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) trackers is more nuanced.

• In Feb 2024, I wrote Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting. 
• Today, the company announced another offering where Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) is selling 10.575mm shares in an overseas offering priced likely tomorrow. 
• It is not as interesting as I had expected. But it means the NEXT offering could be more interesting. But there is index buying long-term anyway. 

• The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect one index change for the HSTECH index in December 2025 based on the latest available data.

• On 10 September, the founding Nishimura family, the PE Firm CVC, and Mandom Corp (4917 JP) agreed that the first two could take over the latter at 4.9x Mar28 EBITDA.
• A cocktail napkin calculation of expected leverage suggests the equity check is buying this at 5x average Mar27-28 free cash flow. That’s cheap for a growing company.
• The register is open enough to cause problems but not open enough to allow a clean hostile bid by a strategic. But still open enough for someone to have fun.

• The BoE’s annual Quantitative Tightening announcement in September should see it prune the targeted size, we expect by £20bn to £80bn, concentrated in the long-end.
• Fewer maturities in the year ahead would otherwise put too much pressure on active sales into a market that lacks appetite, especially with LDI demand disappearing.
• Pruning the size and duration delays costs crystallising by several billion a year, which the Chancellor will welcome, yet QT’s poor design remains an expensive fiscal disaster.

• The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
• In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
• At present, we see three changes based on the latest data but the rankings can change until 30th September 2025.

• Property management play Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) (EPS) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
• Evergrande (3333 HK) controls 51.71%. This suspension is either a precursor to a Scheme; or (more likely) cash-strapped Evergrande is exiting, potentially triggering an unconditional MGO. 
• Evergrande, currently in liquidation, was delisted from the HKEx on the 25th August 2025 after failing to fulfil HKEx resumption guidance. The delisting was arguably symbolic, but remains a milestone.

• Back on the 3rd July 2025, Jilin Province Trust must a voluntary Offer at HK$0.70/share (~0.23x P/B!!) for troubled rural commercial bank Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK). 
• Shares have been suspended since 12th March. Jilin Jiutai have yet to publish their 2024 annual results. It’s doubtful shares will resume trading. Ever. 
• The Composite Doc Booklet is now out, with a H-share class meeting on the 24th October, the same day as the first close. The IFA (Gram) says “fair & reasonable“.

• Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.
• Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.
• Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.

• The Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) (now called Sony Financial Group Inc (“SFGI”)) spinoff approaches. It will start trading 20 days from now.
• Yesterday, the TSE confirmed approval (outline, Securities Report (J), Corporate Governance Report (J). The company provided details of a possible ToSTNeT-3 buyback on Day 2 pre-open. That complicates things.
• The introduction of that type of buyback flexibility indicates that supply overhang may be managed better than buyers would hope. Means other strategies may be necessary.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
• The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
• The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.

• There are 3 constituent changes for the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
• The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
• The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

• NIO (9866 HK) / NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.
• The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. NIO (NIO US) closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect NIO (9866 HK) to open around HK$44.55/share.
• There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) trackers is more nuanced.

• Toei Animation (4816 JP) ’s shareholder, Fuji Media, is looking to raise around US$210m from a secondary placement.
• The deal is a large one to digest, representing 41.7 days of the stock’s three month ADV and 4.9% of the shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• President Trump’s current preference for rate cuts is not unconditional. Higher-order logic suggests this would not override fundamental resilience or fairly prove “TACO”.
• Political pressure is state-dependent, with the messenger mattering more than the objective truth beneath any message. Trump’s Chair will have a stronger hand.
• Brazil suffered President Lula’s pressure, but he still supported his “Golden Boy’s” turn from dovish dissent to forceful rate hikes. Fed pricing ignores the potential for change.

• NIO (NIO US), a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. 
• The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.
• While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  

• The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect one index change for the HSTECH index in December 2025 based on the latest available data.

• After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch’s son Lachlan is set to take control of News Corp (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).
• Preceding my comments on News Corp and 62%-held REA Group Ltd (REA AU) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• On the 29th August, Mixi (2121 JP) cleared 50% of the voting power in PointsBet (PBH AU). It’s Offer was automatically extended, and will now close on the 12th September.
• Mixi has 51.59%. betr Entertainment (BBT AU) said it holds 20.45%, plus 6.5% in the IAF, the instructions for which can be withdrawn. betr said it won’t accept Mixi’s Offer.
• Mixi adds betr will have no PBH board representation “either now or in the future”; and betr will continue to be a clear competitor. Additionally, PBH questions betr’s buyback funding,

• Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
• The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.

• Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
• That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
• It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!

• Shift Inc (3697 JP) will replace Citizen Watch (7762 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) after the close of trading on 30 September.
• BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) will be deleted from the NKY INDEX following the spin-off from Sony Corp (6758 JP). 
• The index committee has decided not to add Kokusai Electric to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of Citizen Watch points to sector balance.

• The Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) (now called Sony Financial Group Inc (“SFGI”)) spinoff approaches. It will start trading 20 days from now.
• Yesterday, the TSE confirmed approval (outline, Securities Report (J), Corporate Governance Report (J). The company provided details of a possible ToSTNeT-3 buyback on Day 2 pre-open. That complicates things.
• The introduction of that type of buyback flexibility indicates that supply overhang may be managed better than buyers would hope. Means other strategies may be necessary.

• Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close. 
• Shift Inc (3697 JP) is IN. Citizen Watch (7762 JP) is OUT. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)? MIA. 
• In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years. 

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is seeking to raise US$3 billion.  
• Zijin Gold hold interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.
• The investment case is bullish due to a diversified mine portfolio, strong growth, an attractive margin profile, robust cash generation, and modest leverage.

• KRX BBIG Sept review: Mother index BBIG, four kids. Only Bio (adds: Peptron, PharmaResearch; deletes: Hanmi Pharm, SK Bioscience) and Game saw changes. Battery, Internet unchanged.
• Game’s tiny AUM won’t move flows; Bio may see meaningful passive impact. Index AUM ~20B KRW: additions ~0.2x DTV inflow, deletions ~0.3–0.4x DTV outflow.
• Clean trade setup: index flying under radar, seemingly no pre-positioning. PharmaResearch seems to have moved solo. Thursday likely sees strong ETF-driven price action; enter late morning pullback, exit before close.

• On 5 September, Shenge increased its minimum scheme consideration for Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) to A$0.443, a 23% premium to the previous minimum cash consideration.
• The IE considers the offer fair and reasonable. The key conditions are approval from the Fair Competition Commission of Tanzania and shareholder approval (vote scheduled for 16 September).
• This is a done deal, as Tanzania approval and the vote are low-risk. At the last close and for a 30 September payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.5%/147%.  

• Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
• Our long-term TOPIX Inclusion pre-event candidate Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) has experienced a sharp price decline and has moved further away from the required thresholds for Section Transfers.
• Separately, Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) has announced a potential move to the Prime market which could result in a TOPIX inclusion in late-October 2025.

• Back in April 2022, around six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I touched on the disruption to the uranium supply chain in Uranium: Fuelling Fears. 
• The war spurred renewed interest in nuclear energy as a source of domestic power. Uranium prices have tripled since the invasion. 
• A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, together with a material output drop from mines “as deposits are exhausted”.

• For each share of Sony Corp (6758 JP), shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.
• The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the Nikkei225 and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.
• There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.

• There is 1 change for the S&P/ASX50 Index, 3 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 9 changes for the S&P/ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) and 17 adds/ 12 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index.
• Some of the index changes will also have same way flows from trackers of other global and sector indices on the same day.
• The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices and performance has been especially strong for the S&P/ASX100 Index and S&P/ASX300 Index changes.

• Shift Inc (3697 JP) will replace Citizen Watch (7762 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) after the close of trading on 30 September.
• BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) will be deleted from the NKY INDEX following the spin-off from Sony Corp (6758 JP). 
• The index committee has decided not to add Kokusai Electric to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of Citizen Watch points to sector balance.

• Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
• That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
• It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!

• Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close. 
• Shift Inc (3697 JP) is IN. Citizen Watch (7762 JP) is OUT. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)? MIA. 
• In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years. 

• Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
• The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  
• Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH’s peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. 

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is seeking to raise US$3 billion.  
• Zijin Gold hold interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.
• The investment case is bullish due to a diversified mine portfolio, strong growth, an attractive margin profile, robust cash generation, and modest leverage.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front,  a few US$1bn+ IPOs are said to be looking to launch later this month, across regions.
• On the placements front, deals continue to flow through as the market remains receptive. 

• In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s valuation using Peter Lynch’s PEGY ratio.
• If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.
• WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART’S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.

• Activist-Ish-Y investor Effissimo reported Friday they had a 6.68% stake as of the end of August. 
• Their average price is ¥2,253 which is 10% through the price the family Bidco was bidding (¥2,050). 
• As this hasn’t traded below terms at any point since announcement, an extension was likely. This morning, we got one. We’ll get another one before it’s done, BUT…

• The biggest potential M&A event right now in Korea is the potential acquisition of HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) by POSCO Holdings (005490 KS).
• Overall, we believe there is a higher probability of POSCO backing out of this potential acquisition of HMM, rather than POSCO completing this M&A deal.
• Although POSCO claims that it spends about 3 trillion won annually on logistics, the actual synergies among these three businesses (steel, rechargeable battery, and logistics) remain murky.

• Caliway Biopharmaceuticals (6919 TT) and King Slide Works (2059 TT) replace Taiwan Cement (1101 TT) and Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September.
• Caliway Biopharmaceuticals (6919 TT) and King Slide Works (2059 TT) were added to a global index in August and that resulted in a large percentage of float being bought.
• Caliway Biopharmaceuticals (6919 TT) will be added to another global index in September and that will further reduce the real float of the stock.

• KRX dropped its September sector rejig post-close: only Semis (₩0.96T), Autos (₩0.51T), and Healthcare (₩0.31T) matter. Lineup below.
• AUM-Wise, Semis was key. September TMI reshuffle saw light additions, heavy deletions; otherwise, results largely matched earlier forecasts.
• TMI reshuffle flew under the radar with little pre-positioning; ETF rebalances next Thursday could trigger notable price moves — consider long/short baskets on high-impact names.

• There is 1 change for the S&P/ASX50 Index, 3 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 9 changes for the S&P/ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) and 17 adds/ 12 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index.
• Some of the index changes will also have same way flows from trackers of other global and sector indices on the same day.
• The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices and performance has been especially strong for the S&P/ASX100 Index and S&P/ASX300 Index changes.

• Six names stood out with simultaneous volume spikes and sharp pops last Friday; all Semis and Autos additions with big passive impact, while all others showed no tape action.
• Results likely leaked early, prompting front-running on Semis and Autos adds—high passive impact names—causing Friday’s sharp volume and price spikes.
• Early movers are mostly priced in; Thursday momentum plays still work, but Monday–Thursday morning requires caution. Focus on volume-driven flows before loading positions, long-short basket viable for other passive-impact names.

• Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH), a Chinese automobile manufacturer, has secured HKEx listing approval for a US$1.5-2.0 billion IPO.
• Chery is the second largest Chinese domestic brand passenger vehicle company, and the 11th largest passenger vehicle company globally. 
• The bull case rests on market share gains, encouraging NEV segmental performance, good margin profile and cash generation.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

• Context: The Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) vs. Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) and short Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) targets a 9% return, with the long position supported by cheaper valuations.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• I tally 45 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) and Yutaka Giken (7229 JP). 
• Key updates/news took place on Johns Lyng (JLG AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), and Pacific Industrial (7250 JP).

• Last evening, Hang Seng announced a methodology change for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) with implementation in two phases.
• The capping methodology will be updated at the September rebalance and the turnover and sector requirements will be updated at the December rebalance.
• The updated capping scheme increases turnover and flow in September, while there could be one constituent change for the index at the December rebalance.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
• The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
• The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.

• There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.
• We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
• On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.

• In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.
• The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.
• Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.

• China Telecom (H) (728 HK), JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn (US$1.44bn). The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 2 September.
• At 88 constituents, we near the 100-index member target. The target is likely to be reached by early-2027 – maybe 2026 given mainland companies listing of H-shares on the HKEX.

• DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) will be deleted.
• Estimated passive buying in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) is US$32m while the passive selling in HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) is estimated to be US$7m.
• Shorts have increased in both stocks. There could be short covering in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT followed by new shorts, while shorts could look to cover HealthCo REIT as passives sell.

• TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
• 216 new CGRs filed in Aug-2025 (after 783 in July, 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input name, see changes.
• The JPX Council of Experts met on 2 Sep (and 9 July before that). The parent-sub changes are slow to come. 2 Sep docs may be worth reading in parts.

• The biggest potential M&A event right now in Korea is the potential acquisition of HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) by POSCO Holdings (005490 KS).
• Overall, we believe there is a higher probability of POSCO backing out of this potential acquisition of HMM, rather than POSCO completing this M&A deal.
• Although POSCO claims that it spends about 3 trillion won annually on logistics, the actual synergies among these three businesses (steel, rechargeable battery, and logistics) remain murky.

• KRX dropped its September sector rejig post-close: only Semis (₩0.96T), Autos (₩0.51T), and Healthcare (₩0.31T) matter. Lineup below.
• AUM-Wise, Semis was key. September TMI reshuffle saw light additions, heavy deletions; otherwise, results largely matched earlier forecasts.
• TMI reshuffle flew under the radar with little pre-positioning; ETF rebalances next Thursday could trigger notable price moves — consider long/short baskets on high-impact names.

• DISCO is the global leader in wafer dicing and grinding, holding ~70–80% market share in critical back-end semiconductor tools.
• Anagement is expanding capacity via the Gohara Plant (FY2028) and upgrading innovation at the Haneda R&D Center (FY2025–27) to secure its edge in hybrid bonding, PLP, and stealth dicing.
• Revenues are projected to grow ~11% CAGR to FY2028, with EPS potentially reaching ¥1,500, but the stock trades at a premium ~33x FY26E P/E.