Category

Daily Briefs

Jul 27
0

Daily Brief Financials: Hana Financial, Marsh & Mclennan, Bitcoin Pro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • GEM Banks; Focus on Value Attributes and Returns Recovery Potential
  • Marsh & McLennan Companies: Can They Develop A Competitive Edge Through Analytics? – Major Drivers
  • Dog Days of Summer

GEM Banks; Focus on Value Attributes and Returns Recovery Potential

By Victor Galliano

  • Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick five longs and two shorts as our conviction calls; we add country-based equity risk premia to our screening process
  • Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, CIMB Group from Malaysia, Bradesco from Brazil and CCB from China; four of these are value picks
  • Our sells are Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank from India, both richly valued larger cap banks that have benefited from past economic and political tailwinds with headwinds now emerging

Marsh & McLennan Companies: Can They Develop A Competitive Edge Through Analytics? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marsh McLennan, a global professional services firm reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2024.
  • The results demonstrated the company’s ability to deliver growth in the short term while simultaneously investing for long-term sustainability.
  • Marsh McLennan posted a 6% increase in underlying revenue growth on top of 11% in the same period last year, reflecting strong execution across Risk and Insurance Services (RIS) and Consulting.

Dog Days of Summer

By Delphi Digital

  • Market consolidation signals opportunity, not the end: we’re just in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the crypto cycle.
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs bring unprecedented demand, setting the stage for significant market movements.
  • Solana’s on-chain activity and retail adoption make it the standout trade of this cycle.

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Jul 27
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Intuitive Surgical, Novartis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution
  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO: Subscribe on Favorable Industry Tailwind and Reasonable Pricing
  • Intuitive Surgical Inc.: Expansion of da Vinci 5 (dV5) Products & Services & Other Major Drivers
  • Novartis AG (NVS): Acquisition of Mariana Oncology for Expansion of Oncology Portfolio

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) is looking to raise up to US$222m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

By Joe Jasper

  • Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.
  • Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
  • The S&P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan’s TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO: Subscribe on Favorable Industry Tailwind and Reasonable Pricing

By Tina Banerjee

  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals, the largest India-focused CDMO, has set price band of Rs 646–679/share for its upcoming IPO. The company has blue chip and sticky clientele.
  • The Indian domestic CDMO market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% during FY24–28, nearly doubling its historical growth rate.
  • Akums seeks a P/E valuation of 28.7–30.2x, which seems to be reasonable compared with listed peers.

Intuitive Surgical Inc.: Expansion of da Vinci 5 (dV5) Products & Services & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intuitive Surgical experienced healthy performance in the second quarter of 2024, with strong capital placements and solid procedure growth.
  • Several advancements were made, with the rollout of da Vinci 5, stability of Ion supply, and expanding da Vinci SP installs in Europe among the highlights.
  • The company also faced some headwinds related to multiport procedures.

Novartis AG (NVS): Acquisition of Mariana Oncology for Expansion of Oncology Portfolio

By Baptista Research

  • Novartis’s second quarter 2024 earnings were decent and revealed a company strongly positioned and confident of its continued growth trajectory.
  • From a financial standpoint, the Swiss multinational pharmaceutical firm posted a solid performance with 11% quarter-on-quarter growth in sales, profits expanding 19%, and a core margin of 39.6%.
  • The robustness in financials was driven by commendable productivity as well as sustained sales growth.

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Jul 26
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 19th): Fortescue and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 19th): Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Brambles

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 19th): Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Brambles

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 19th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.2bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Bluescope Steel, Brambles.

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Jul 26
0

Daily Brief ESG: Although the Cost of Capital for CBs Should Be Considered Much Higher than for SBs and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Although the Cost of Capital for CBs Should Be Considered Much Higher than for SBs

Although the Cost of Capital for CBs Should Be Considered Much Higher than for SBs

By Aki Matsumoto

  • We need to watch carefully to see whether cash flow will subsequently increase in the projects that the CB issuers have invested their proceeds in.
  • Share prices of companies that announce equity financings, including CBs, usually decline. Besides the dilution, another aspect is the effect of the company’s announcement of the sale of its shares.
  • In the case of CBs, the company should keep in mind that it sold the conversion rights of its shares for less than their actual call option value.

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Jul 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique
  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Mixed; Tech Losses Deepen
  • Intraday Trading in India: A Deep Dive into SEBI’s Insights and the Changing Landscape
  • China to Be Top National Market for Aircraft in the Coming Two Decades, Boeing Predicts
  • GLP-1s – Update 1
  • # 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL
  • Mat-Chem Notes – Between a Rock and a Hard Place – 2H24 Outlook
  • Demand for AI Chips Might Cut Huawei’s Smartphone Semiconductor Short

The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

By Andy Fu

  • We call the communique courageous because it pressed ahead on three fundamental, long standing issues of Chinese economy: fiscal revenue, social security and over-capacity;
  • But we question its timing as well as the wisdom of staunch refusal to print money to revive consumption. In our view, such measure doesn’t run counter to the communique;
  • We believe the likelihood points to prolonged slow recovery in consumption, investment, job market and eventually manufacturing. But we see positive momentum in healthcare, infrastructure and eventually consumption.

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Mixed; Tech Losses Deepen

By Mark Chadwick

  • US economy grew at a faster-than-expected 2.8% in the second quarter.  
  • Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.95% on Thursday, extending losses as investors sold off leading 2024 tech stocks
  • Canon forecasts a 27% increase in net profit to 335 billion yen for fiscal year 2024, reaching a 17-year high

Intraday Trading in India: A Deep Dive into SEBI’s Insights and the Changing Landscape

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Intraday trading surged from 1.5 million traders in FY19 to 6.9 million in FY23, driven by accessibility and financial literacy.
  • Despite rising participation, 71% of intraday traders incurred losses in FY23, highlighting the risks and need for careful trading.
  • The high losses among new traders emphasize the importance of experience, risk management, and informed decision-making in intraday trading.

China to Be Top National Market for Aircraft in the Coming Two Decades, Boeing Predicts

By Caixin Global

  • China is expected to be the largest national market for commercial airplane deliveries through 2043, Boeing Co. said, as the U.S. company resumed deliveries of its cash-cow 737 Max jets to Chinese airlines after a two-month pause.
  • Boeing predicts 43,975 new commercial airplanes will be delivered globally over the next 20 years, according to its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook released Friday. That’s up from last year’s forecast of 42,595 aircraft.
  • The manufacturer raised its forecast because it believes that air travel will have fully recovered from its pandemic-era slump by then, with demand even surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to a press release about the Outlook.

GLP-1s – Update 1

By Avien Pillay

  • The GLP-1 market is evolving at a rapid pace, and we have quickly moved onto the development of a triple agonist drug.
  • First mover advantage is expected to lose steam as more effective GLP-1s are launched.
  • Scary side effects; challenged patents and strong competition will favour the cost-effective producers.

# 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates to 7.35% and 7.40% for specific tenors.
  • Adani Green Energy starts 250 MW wind project, boosting total capacity to 2,250 MW.
  • EQT exits RBL Bank with Rs 1,100 crore stake sale; shares drop 3%.

Mat-Chem Notes – Between a Rock and a Hard Place – 2H24 Outlook

By Water Tower Research

  • Heavy lithium. Halfway through the year, the S&P 500 has appreciated 15.4% YTD, driven by the strong performance of the Magnificent Seven, even as the remaining 490+ companies saw their stock prices move more in line with the Russell 2000, which itself posted an 7.8% gain YTD.
  • Over the same timeframe, the WTR-CMI Index delivered a disappointing 4.4% gain under the weight of lithium and graphite companies losing 36-62% of their value due to collapsing lithium and synthetic graphite prices, driven by slower growth of EVs and steel production and liquidation of excess inventories by customers, built over the course of 2022-23.

  • Sticky costs remain as pricing power wanes. Over the course of 2022-23, many companies experiencing a rapid rise in raw material costs, driven by higher petrochemical prices and rising costs of transportation and logistics aggressively raised prices in an attempt to preserve profits, if not profit margins. 

Demand for AI Chips Might Cut Huawei’s Smartphone Semiconductor Short

By Robert McKay

  • US semiconductor restrictions are limiting China’s access to advanced AI accelerators, causing a widening gap in AI compute. The US will expand its lead over China to ~7x by 2025.
  • Although China has domestic alternatives, bottlenecks due to separate US restrictions on semiconductor equipment are hindering yields and capacity expansions, effectively limiting China’s capacity to train state-of-the-art AI models.
  • To maximize AI compute, Huawei will likely curtail smartphone semiconductors in favor of AI accelerators. We expect manufacturers offering mid-end Android devices like Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) to benefit first.

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Jul 26
0

Daily Brief ECM: CONFIRMED: Bellevue raising and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CONFIRMED: Bellevue raising

CONFIRMED: Bellevue raising

By Money of Mine

  • Bellevue is raising capital through a placement and share purchase plan at a discount to the last close
  • The purpose of the capital raise is to pay off debt and fund future growth, with operational pressure and hedges in place
  • The company is shifting to a long-term growth story, with guidance for increased production and costs going forward

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Jul 26
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Sands China, Vedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Sands China, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jul 26
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Overall Assessment of the Value-Up Policy-Related Aspects of the Tax Reform Plan Released Today and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Overall Assessment of the Value-Up Policy-Related Aspects of the Tax Reform Plan Released Today
  • StubWorld: Legend (LEGN US) Offer Or Not, Genscript (1548 HK) Is Attractive
  • Arvida (ARV NZ): Stonepeak’s Offer
  • Canvest (1381 HK): Trading Wide To Grandblue’s Offer
  • Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade
  • Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Stonepeak’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.70
  • Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Could Zomato’s Share Price Rally Become a Problem?
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes
  • Jeisys Medical (287410 KS): Archimed Reloads Delisting Offer
  • STOXX 50: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

Overall Assessment of the Value-Up Policy-Related Aspects of the Tax Reform Plan Released Today

By Sanghyun Park

  • The highest dividend tax rate drops from 49.5% to 25%, leading the local capital market to view the reform as more shareholder-focused than company-focused.
  • The top inheritance tax rate drops from the 60% range to 40%, a meaningful reduction for conglomerates like Hyundai and Hanwha, though below initial expectations.
  • Tax incentives in the reform are less aggressive than expected, with modest corporate and inheritance tax cuts. However, this compromise increases the likelihood of its passage, boosting short-term market expectations.

StubWorld: Legend (LEGN US) Offer Or Not, Genscript (1548 HK) Is Attractive

By David Blennerhassett

  • Biotech play Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) and ~48%-held Legend Biotech (LEGN US) popped recently on a reported tilt for Legend.  Neither Genscript nor Legend made exchange announcements supporting the claim. 
  • Preceding my comments on Genscript/Legend are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Arvida (ARV NZ): Stonepeak’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Arvida (ARV NZ), a leading retirement living and aged care service provider in New Zealand, announced a Scheme from PE-outfit Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed. 
  • The Offer has unanimous board support. ~18% of shares out are supportive. Standard Scheme voting applies. Consent from NZ’s Overseas Investment Office also required. 
  • A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in 4Q24 with implementation in the same quarter. Optics are a tad opportunistic; but this looks priced to complete. 

Canvest (1381 HK): Trading Wide To Grandblue’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 22 July, waste-to-energy play Canvest Environmental Protection  (1381 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer from Grandblue Environment (600323 CH) at $4.90/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
  • Terms mirror that announced on the 7th July. Best Approach (54.75% of shares out) is seeking to roll over 7.23%. Pre-cons include the usual regulators: MoC, NDRC, SAMR and SAFE.
  • Any new dividends paid will be netted. 4.478% blocking stake. Pre-IPO investor AEP Green Power, has 5.67%. Best Approach is required to abstain from voting on the Scheme and rollover.

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.
  • Oklo Inc (OKLO US) and Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp (WUC CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.
  • There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we’d watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.

Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Stonepeak’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.70

By Arun George

  • On 22 July, Arvida (ARV NZ) entered a scheme implementation agreement with Stonepeak at NZ$1.70, a 65.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors’ consent and shareholder approval. The Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.
  • The offer is attractive, and shareholders representing 18% of outstanding shares are supportive. At the last close and for a November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.9%/14.2%.  

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Could Zomato’s Share Price Rally Become a Problem?

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • At present, 3 changes for the BSE 100 index and 7 changes for the BSE 200 index.
  • The BSE 100 handling rules for names without futures and options (F&O) sometimes punish companies that have enjoyed good share price rallies and Zomato could get into such a trap.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

Jeisys Medical (287410 KS): Archimed Reloads Delisting Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last month, aesthetic laser maker Jeisys Medical (287410 KS) announced French PE outfit Archimed SAS was seeking to delist the company.
  • Via a Tender Offer, Archimed sought to acquire 72% of Jeisys at ₩13,000. Archimed also inked agreements with founders/directors for 26.44%, taking its possible % holding to 98.44%.
  • The Tender Offer closed on the 22nd July with Archimed holding 81.39% (including the aforementioned agreements). Archimed has now reloaded, on the same terms. There is no minimum acceptance condition. 

STOXX 50: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

By Dimitris Ioannidis

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Jul 26
0

Daily Brief Macro: South Korea Plans To Lower Inheritance Taxes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • South Korea Plans To Lower Inheritance Taxes
  • EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space
  • [ETP 30/2024] Oil Reels Under Macroeconomic Headwinds; Nat-Gas Sheds Gains to Oversupply Concerns
  • Positioning Watch – There was no “rotation” from large to small caps
  • Actinver – Macro Daily: Inflation: 1h-Jul
  • Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?
  • Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets

South Korea Plans To Lower Inheritance Taxes

By Douglas Kim

  • On 25 July, the South Korean government announced that it plans to lower highest bracket inheritance taxes from 50% to 40%. 
  • This is a significant move since excessively high inheritance taxes has been one of the key reasons for poor corporate governance in Korea. 
  • A reduction in the highest bracket inheritance taxes from 50% to 40-45% is likely sometime in 4Q24 to 2025 which should help to improve corporate governance in Korea.

EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.
  • The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.
  • The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.

[ETP 30/2024] Oil Reels Under Macroeconomic Headwinds; Nat-Gas Sheds Gains to Oversupply Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • US crude inventories fell for the fourth straight week, with a 3.7 mb drawdown. Gasoline stocks dropped by 5.6 mb, the largest decline since March.
  • As of 19/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 16.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • TotalEnergies’ Q2 revenue fell 5.2% YoY, missing estimates by 7.3%. EPS dropped 7.5% YoY and missed estimates by 7.2%.

Positioning Watch – There was no “rotation” from large to small caps

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome back to our weekly positioning update.
  • It’s hard not to touch upon the recent moves in equities once again, with markets trying to digest whether it was the beginning of a broader outflow from large cap / tech into small cap stocks and indices like Russell 2000, or if it was simply a hiccup due to extended positioning and a profound fear that the cutting cycle was already fully priced in, leaving tiny room for extensive gains in large cap stocks, which were up >20% YTD before the CPI report.
  • We provide 3 reasons as to why it was not a rotation below.

Actinver – Macro Daily: Inflation: 1h-Jul

By Actinver

  • The inflation rate for the first half of July stood at 0.71%, driven by increases in the prices of agricultural and energy products.
  • However, core inflation continued its downward trend in annual terms, approaching 4.0%.
  • This reinforces the expectation that the Board of Governors of Banxico will opt for a 25 basis points cut in the reference rate, in a decision that we anticipate will be divided.

Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?

By Andreas Steno

  • The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices.
  • Norges Bank is in contrast to other central banks extremely structured/mechanical around their rate decisions and the upcoming policy bias can hence be tracked with a decent precision in real time.
  • Here is a brief summary of the current status of the (semi)-mechanical adjustments to the rate path from June, given recent development.

Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets.
  • The RTY rotation story is not all rosy. Momentum suggests that we are not as concentrated in equity markets as we think
  • Three weeks ago, when the dovish CPI print landed, the immediate reaction was a sell-off in large caps followed by an influx into small caps, with RTY rising >10% over the week following the release.

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Jul 26
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #36 – Give the Ethereum ETFs a Week and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #36 – Give the Ethereum ETFs a Week, Then It Is Up Only

Crypto Moves #36 – Give the Ethereum ETFs a Week, Then It Is Up Only

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The U.S.-based Ethereum spot ETFs were launched on Tuesday, concluding their second trading session yesterday.
  • Since the launch, Ethereum has declined slightly both in dollar terms and relative to Bitcoin.
  • Despite this situation, there is nothing to fear – in fact, quite the opposite, as we will demonstrate in today’s Crypto Moves.

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