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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: BeiGene , Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) – 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns
  • Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Recent Portfolio Strengthening Initiatives to Accelerate Long-Term Growth


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) – 2023 Results Preview and Undervaluation Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Since Imbruvica’s sales continued to decline and Calquence hadn’t shown much growth in US since 23Q2, either Zanubrutinib gained more market share or the entire BTK inhibitors market is shrinking. 
  • BeiGene’s recent sluggish share price could be related to geopolitical conflicts/weak market sentiment.However, innovative drugs don’t involve supply chain security issues. There’s no need for US to sanction China’s biotech.
  • We are relatively optimistic about BeiGene’s 23Q4 sales growth. In our view, BeiGene’s reasonable market value is at least about US$18 billion. BeiGene (6160 HK) is undervalued.   

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Recent Portfolio Strengthening Initiatives to Accelerate Long-Term Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) has announced partnership with Bridgebio Pharma Inc (BBIO US) for an exclusive license on infigratinib for achondroplasia, hypochondroplasia, and other skeletal dysplasias in Japan.
  • This month, Kyowa Kirin has enrolled first patient in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating tivozanib eye drops (KHK4951) in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME).
  • The company’s top selling drug Crysvita is growing steadily since launch. Crysvita led to better-than-expected result in 2023. However, higher R&D expenses will negatively impact 2024 operating profit.

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Daily Brief Industrials: UBTech Robotics, Outsourcing Inc, Citic Ltd, Sixt SE, Keystone Law Group , Keisei Electric Railway Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance: 25 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect
  • Merger Arb Mondays (19 Feb) – Outsourcing, JSR, Shinko, YSK, Vinda, Altium, Azure, Ansarada
  • Citic Limited – A Deeply Discounted Conglomerate in the Hang Seng Index
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report
  • Keystone Law Group: A Law Firm with Structural Advantages, Primed for Shareholder Returns
  • Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher


HSCI Index Rebalance: 25 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 25 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 514.
  • We expect 21 of the 25 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Since the start of the year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 22 of the 29 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the weeks ahead.


Citic Limited – A Deeply Discounted Conglomerate in the Hang Seng Index

By Rikki Malik

  • Citic Ltd (267 HK) is a well-managed conglomerate trading at a big discount to its constituent parts
  • Earnings should move up from here and pays a decent dividend while you wait.
  • A member of both the the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)  and the HSCCI and will attract inflows once institutional money returns

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.

Keystone Law Group: A Law Firm with Structural Advantages, Primed for Shareholder Returns

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Keystone Law Group (KEYS) is a UK-based law firm utilizing a freelance-lawyer platform model.

  • Its “pay-when-paid” policy and “work-from-anywhere” culture result in minimal invested capital, yielding high returns on capital and a structural competitive advantage over traditional equity-based law firms.

  • With a 2023E free cash flow yield of approximately 6.8%, the shares are deemed fairly to slightly overvalued.


Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

By Henry Soediarko

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) share price has increased but not run ahead of its fundamentals.
  • Weak Yen, COVID rebound, friendlier visa policy by the Japanese government, and the potential for more Chinese tourists visiting Japan are tailwinds for Keisei.
  • Valuation may look expensive, but with the high growth rate, investors should consider to use PEG rather than PER or PBR.

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Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Arthur J Gallagher & Co, Bell Financial, Marsh & Mclennan, Mfa Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • What We’ve Gathered Thus Far Regarding KOREA PREMIUM INDEX: Schedule, Methodology, & NPS
  • Arthur J Gallagher &Amp; Co (AJG) – Sunday, Nov 19, 2023
  • Bell Financial Group Ltd – Well Positioned for FY24
  • Well positioned for FY24
  • Marsh &Amp; Mclennan Cos (MMC) – Sunday, Nov 19, 2023
  • Mfa Financial Inc (MFA.PC) – Sunday, Nov 19, 2023


What We’ve Gathered Thus Far Regarding KOREA PREMIUM INDEX: Schedule, Methodology, & NPS

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Feb 26th announcement introduces the Corporate Value Up Program and unveils the Korea Premium Index direction. Methodology finalization expected by mid-March; ETFs launch by mid-May.
  • Similar to JPX Prime 150, KRX aims to target enhancing equity spread and PBR trends (+1.0x) while also integrating dividend growth rate. KOSDAQ stocks may be omitted.
  • NPS’s role is vital for the Korea Premium Index, yet aligning its passive strategy with this index faces challenges. Ongoing discussions aim to adjust regulations for this index investment.

Arthur J Gallagher &Amp; Co (AJG) – Sunday, Nov 19, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Arthur J Gallagher is a strong player in the U.S. SME broking market trading at fair value with potential upside
  • Estimated 5-year returns are 10% IRR / 1.5x MOIC, with possibility of higher returns with EBITDA growth and multiple expansion
  • Insurance brokers benefiting from firm P&C pricing cycle and market conditions, providing downside protection and potential for sustained organic growth, investor focus on growth trend maintenance

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Bell Financial Group Ltd – Well Positioned for FY24

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Bell Financial Group Ltd (ASX:BFG) is a diversified provider of financial products and software solutions within, and increasingly outside, its traditional full-service stockbroking business.
  • BFG reported FY23 NPAT of $24.3m, 5% below FY22 and 10% below RaaS estimates.
  • A H2 FY23 miss in Technology & Platforms (down 8% against a H1 result +100%) was the major difference to RaaS estimates, with all other divisions trading in-line with generally challenging but improving trading conditions. 

Well positioned for FY24

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Bell Financial Group Ltd (ASX:BFG) is a diversified provider of financial products and software solutions within, and increasingly outside, its traditional full-service stockbroking business.
  • BFG reported FY23 NPAT of $24.3m, 5% below FY22 and 10% below RaaS estimates.
  • A H2 FY23 miss in Technology & Platforms (down 8% against a H1 result +100%) was the major difference to RaaS estimates, with all other divisions trading in-line with generally challenging but improving trading conditions.

Marsh &Amp; Mclennan Cos (MMC) – Sunday, Nov 19, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Marsh McLennan is the largest insurance broker globally, with strong organic growth driven by its consulting business
  • Current valuation at $198 with an EV/2024E EBITDA of 16.0x is considered fair, offering potential 5-year returns of 12% IRR / 1.7x MOIC
  • Predicted returns could increase to 16% IRR / 2.1x MOIC with a 13% EBITDA growth rate and a multiple expansion to 17.0x, with a favorable market backdrop for insurance brokers helping to drive growth trends

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Mfa Financial Inc (MFA.PC) – Sunday, Nov 19, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • MFA Financial’s Series C preferred stock offers a 25% IRR and 40% total return over 18 months
  • Favorable entry point for investors due to current interest rate environment and preferred instruments being out of favor
  • MFA’s position in the face of LIBOR transition challenges sets it apart, making it a strong choice for short-duration fixed income investing

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Tongcheng Travel Holdings , Snow Peak Inc, East Buy Holding , Shiseido Company, Emperador, Sony Corp, Trip.com and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn
  • Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & One Big Surprise
  • Shiseido (4911 JP):  Japan On Track While China Was Weak
  • STTF Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change in March
  • ECM Weekly (19th Feb 2024) – Toei Ani, KB Fin, IIF, Trial, Juniper, Bharti Hexacom, Octillion Energy
  • China Consumption Weekly (19 Feb 2024): Ant Group, Great Wall Motor, JD.com, Baidu, Autohome


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

By Brian Freitas


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei reports that Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “in the range of 1,200 yen per share.
  • Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.
  • The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. 

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & One Big Surprise

By Brian Freitas

  • There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the March rebalance. There are some surprises.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.26bn (US$416m). 6 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
  • There is huge short interest on East Buy Holding (1797 HK) and there could be some short covering ahead of the inclusion of the stock in the index.

Shiseido (4911 JP):  Japan On Track While China Was Weak

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Shiseido Company (4911 JP) reported 4Q23 results last week.  Overall, operating profit of Y40bn in FY23 was Y5bn higher than previous company guidance of Y35bn.
  • However, Shiseido’s China business weakened materially in 4Q23, and 2024/25 guidance seems a bit light. 
  • I believe FY24 should not be used as a base for valuation because the nuclear wastewater impact is likely to linger a while longer during FY24. 

STTF Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change in March

By Brian Freitas


ECM Weekly (19th Feb 2024) – Toei Ani, KB Fin, IIF, Trial, Juniper, Bharti Hexacom, Octillion Energy

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, Trial Holdings (5882 JP) was back in the market, a year after ditching its previous attempt, while Juniper Hotels is trying to ride the India wave.
  • For placements, more signs of REIT coming back to life, this time in Japan. A relatively large deal in Toei Animation (4816 JP) as well was launched.

China Consumption Weekly (19 Feb 2024): Ant Group, Great Wall Motor, JD.com, Baidu, Autohome

By Ming Lu

  • Overseas traveling revenue recovered strongly in China during the Chinese New Year.
  • Great Wall Motor’s vehicle deliveries increased by 69% in January 2024.
  • JD.com plans to raise the salaries for customer service employees by 30% in 2024.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 16th): SK Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 16th): SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, KB Financial Group, Samsung C&T


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 16th): SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, KB Financial Group, Samsung C&T

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of Feb 16th which has an aggregated holding worth USD510.6bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,177mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instistutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, KB Financial Group, Samsung C&T, Samsung Electronics.

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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (19th Feb 2024) – Toei Ani and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (19th Feb 2024) – Toei Ani, KB Fin, IIF, Trial, Juniper, Bharti Hexacom, Octillion Energy


ECM Weekly (19th Feb 2024) – Toei Ani, KB Fin, IIF, Trial, Juniper, Bharti Hexacom, Octillion Energy

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, Trial Holdings (5882 JP) was back in the market, a year after ditching its previous attempt, while Juniper Hotels is trying to ride the India wave.
  • For placements, more signs of REIT coming back to life, this time in Japan. A relatively large deal in Toei Animation (4816 JP) as well was launched.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Super Micro Has Gamestop Moment; Eyes on Nvidia This Week and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Super Micro Has Gamestop Moment; Eyes on Nvidia This Week
  • China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY
  • Japanese Reforms Slowly Kicking In


Ohayo Japan | Super Micro Has Gamestop Moment; Eyes on Nvidia This Week

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks concluded the week on a downward trend as concerns over inflation persisted, diminishing hopes for interest rate cuts.
  • In the upcoming holiday-shortened week, investors await insights from the Federal Reserve minutes on monetary policy direction; NVIDIA’s results
  • Son-San looking to raise $100 billion to fund an AI chip making venture. 

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Various statistics suggested that China’s tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.
  • While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.
  • We like OTAs including Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) stays as the top pick.

Japanese Reforms Slowly Kicking In

By Altay Capital

  • Generated with AI While Japanese stocks have had a banner 2023 and are off to a good start in 2024, the opportunity in Japan remains compelling.
  • Especially in the dirt cheap small cap space.
  • You can still buy net-nets with 20 years of net income profitability for under 9x earnings , Nichia Steel (TYO 5658) remains a double net-net , and even non net-nets like Nissin (TYO 9066) which announced a big buyback (18% of outstanding shares) trade at 0.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd


Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • What We’ve Gathered Thus Far Regarding KOREA PREMIUM INDEX: Schedule, Methodology, & NPS


What We’ve Gathered Thus Far Regarding KOREA PREMIUM INDEX: Schedule, Methodology, & NPS

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Feb 26th announcement introduces the Corporate Value Up Program and unveils the Korea Premium Index direction. Methodology finalization expected by mid-March; ETFs launch by mid-May.
  • Similar to JPX Prime 150, KRX aims to target enhancing equity spread and PBR trends (+1.0x) while also integrating dividend growth rate. KOSDAQ stocks may be omitted.
  • NPS’s role is vital for the Korea Premium Index, yet aligning its passive strategy with this index faces challenges. Ongoing discussions aim to adjust regulations for this index investment.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: HSCI Index Rebalance: 25 Adds and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance: 25 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn
  • Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200
  • What We’ve Gathered Thus Far Regarding KOREA PREMIUM INDEX: Schedule, Methodology, & NPS
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & One Big Surprise
  • Merger Arb Mondays (19 Feb) – Outsourcing, JSR, Shinko, YSK, Vinda, Altium, Azure, Ansarada
  • STTF Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change in March
  • Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Best & Final Offer
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report


HSCI Index Rebalance: 25 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 25 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 514.
  • We expect 21 of the 25 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Since the start of the year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 22 of the 29 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the weeks ahead.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

By Brian Freitas


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei reports that Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “in the range of 1,200 yen per share.
  • Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.
  • The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. 

What We’ve Gathered Thus Far Regarding KOREA PREMIUM INDEX: Schedule, Methodology, & NPS

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Feb 26th announcement introduces the Corporate Value Up Program and unveils the Korea Premium Index direction. Methodology finalization expected by mid-March; ETFs launch by mid-May.
  • Similar to JPX Prime 150, KRX aims to target enhancing equity spread and PBR trends (+1.0x) while also integrating dividend growth rate. KOSDAQ stocks may be omitted.
  • NPS’s role is vital for the Korea Premium Index, yet aligning its passive strategy with this index faces challenges. Ongoing discussions aim to adjust regulations for this index investment.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & One Big Surprise

By Brian Freitas

  • There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the March rebalance. There are some surprises.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.26bn (US$416m). 6 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
  • There is huge short interest on East Buy Holding (1797 HK) and there could be some short covering ahead of the inclusion of the stock in the index.


STTF Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change in March

By Brian Freitas


Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Best & Final Offer

By Brian Freitas

  • Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) holds 71.59% in Boral Ltd (BLD AU) and is looking to acquire the remaining shares at A$6.05/share via a mix of SVW stock and cash.
  • The offer consideration ratchets higher to A$6.15/share if SVW’s aggregate shareholding reaches 80% and to A$6.25/share if SVW’s aggregate shareholding reaches 90.6%.
  • Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) is an addition to a global index at the end of the month and a drop in the stock post inclusion will affect Boral Ltd.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.

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