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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Taihan Electric Wire, Evergreen Marine Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offering of 50% of Outstanding Shares
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)


Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offering of 50% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Last week, Taihan Electric Wire announced a rights offering of 50% of its outstanding shares.  The company is expected to raise 526 billion won. 
  • Taihan Electric Wire is expected to use the rights offering proceeds to mostly expand its submarine cable production.
  • With the share price falling 21% since the announcement of the rights offering last week, Taihan Electric Wire looks more attractive.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • As we begin lapping easy comps, our momentum index looks “less bad”
  • Red Sea re-routes, interest rate moves, fuel all helped lift shares recently
  • We think lots of bad news has been priced into shares at current levels

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Daily Brief Health Care: Pacific Smiles and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU) Frowns On Genesis’ Offer


Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU) Frowns On Genesis’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), an operator of dental centers, has announced – and immediately rejected – a non-binding proposal from Genesis Capital Manager.
  • Genesis, holder of 18.75% of shares out, has offered A$1.40/share, by way of a Scheme. That’s a less-than-inspiring 17.1% premium to last close. 
  • PSQ calls the Offer “opportunistically timed”. That has merit, after the share price recently touched a multi-year low.  Separately, PSQ is seeking a new CEO after Mckenzie resigned in August.

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Daily Brief Consumer: NIO , NIFTY Index, Easy Trip Planners , Culp Inc, Jade Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Consumption Weekly: East Buy, NIO, Tencent, PDD, Alibaba, JD.com
  • EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Pullback: Where to Re-Enter LONG?
  • [Week 14] Namaste India 🙏 | EASEMYTR IN | Easy Trip’s Ghost Franchise?
  • Culp, Inc. – Introducing Updated Model; FY24 Estimates Unchanged
  • Jade Hopes for Growth Through Reebok as Locondo Slows


China Consumption Weekly: East Buy, NIO, Tencent, PDD, Alibaba, JD.com

By Ming Lu

  • East Buy’s stock price plunged after a conflict broke out between the top broadcaster and the management team.
  • NIO will launch another brand for low price products, following BYD’s low price and Li Auto’s price reduction.
  • Tencent will move its unimportant assets to China Literature again.

EQD | NIFTY WEEKLY Pullback: Where to Re-Enter LONG?

By Nico Rosti

  • 7 weeks up in a row and very overbought, the NIFTY Index could pullback from its highs this week and/or the next.
  • A pullback to the 21008-20542 support area could be an occasion to enter LONG, profitable if the index rebounds from there and continues to rally into January.
  • The potential pullback appears to be a short-lived retracement down, based on MRM pattern readings.

[Week 14] Namaste India 🙏 | EASEMYTR IN | Easy Trip’s Ghost Franchise?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • The Indian Market (~$4 trillion) has now overtaken Hong Kong as the 4th most-valued stock market after the US, China, and Japan. 
  • We recently concluded an exploratory trip to Patna, the capital, and also the largest city of the state of Bihar, Summarized thoughts on companies focused in this insight. 
  • Multiple stocks covered in the Insight. The future of Easy Trip Planners (EASEMYTR IN), especially if it’s banking on franchisee expansion, could go the other way around.

Culp, Inc. – Introducing Updated Model; FY24 Estimates Unchanged

By Water Tower Research

  • After inputting data from the Culp 2QFY24 Form 10Q filing, FY24 estimates are unchanged. We moderated FY25 and FY26 revenue and profit expectations.
  • This note incorporates that filing and introduces our reformatted earnings model. We hope the revised model and reformatting will be easier to read and understand.
  • As is our custom, our working excel models are available to our readers on request. 

Jade Hopes for Growth Through Reebok as Locondo Slows

By Michael Causton

  • Gaining sufficient scale to get out of the shadow of the Big 3 online malls in Japan is providing tough for Jade Group (3558 JP)’s Locondo.
  • The number of active users on Locondo has fallen in recent quarters, causing concern for merchants and investors alike. 
  • Jade Group, is hoping that sales of major brands like Reebok will attract more users while also bringing higher levels of growth.

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Daily Brief Financials: Muthoot Microfin, Shinhan Financial, S&U PLC, Custodian REIT, Longfor Properties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Muthoot Microfin IPO – RHP Updates, Quick Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation
  • Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates
  • S&U – Maintaining cautious approach
  • Custodian Property Income REIT – Occupier demand continues to drive income
  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan


Muthoot Microfin IPO – RHP Updates, Quick Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Muthoot Microfin (1363943D IN) is looking to raise up to US$116m in its Indian IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$163m.
  • Muthoot Microfin (MMF) is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s performance. In this note, we talk about the company’s RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comp and valuation.

Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

By Sanghyun Park

  • The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures’ spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.
  • Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures’ calendar spread trading.
  • Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.

S&U – Maintaining cautious approach

By Edison Investment Research

In its update for the August to December period, S&U posted good growth in its net receivables balances in both Advantage and Aspen. Advantage reported a drop in live collections to 91% (H123: 94%), but bad debts and voluntary terminations remain below budget. Aspen continues to experience good volume with transactions improving in the quarter, while repayments remain above budget. Additionally, group borrowings reached £209m as S&U continues to fund its growth initiatives. Management announced that following a review by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), it has appointed a Skilled Person to help further align Advantage Finance’s processes with the FCA’s standards including the new Consumer Duty requirements.


Custodian Property Income REIT – Occupier demand continues to drive income

By Edison Investment Research

In H124, Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) continued to benefit from robust occupier demand, underpinning earnings and dividends. Rents continued to grow and occupancy increased, with further near-term progress in sight, reflected in our increased EPRA earnings forecast. Asset management is also supporting capital values, although overall, following market trends, these continue to drift and NAV is modestly lower.


Morning Views Asia: Meituan

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Australia: Allkem Ltd, Link Administration, Adbri, Pacific Smiles and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?
  • Link Admin (LNK AU): Mitsubishi UFJ’s Bittersweet Scheme
  • Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer
  • Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Non-Binding A$3.20 Offer
  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU) Frowns On Genesis’ Offer


Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

By Travis Lundy

  • The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. 
  • It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is “good risk arb risk”
  • But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details here.

Link Admin (LNK AU): Mitsubishi UFJ’s Bittersweet Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Link Administration (LNK AU), the largest provider of services in Australia’s superannuation administration industry, has entered into a Scheme with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.
  • MUFJ is offering long-suffering Link shareholders A$2.10/share (in cash) plus a A$0.16/share dividend (25% franked), or a 32.9% premium, all-in, to the undisturbed price. It has not been declared final. 
  • The Offer has the board’s backing. A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in May with possible completion in June 2024. 

Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer

By Arun George

  • Link Administration (LNK AU) has entered a SID with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) at A$2.26 (A$2.10 scheme consideration + A$0.16 dividend), a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The presence of several substantial shareholders, lack of irrevocables, a light offer, recent derisking of the business and a long-dated offer pose a challenge for the scheme to get up. 
  • MUFG’s offer could spark a rival offer, but Link’s long-suffering shareholders have endured a history of failed bids. At the last close, the risk/reward is unfavourable.

Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Non-Binding A$3.20 Offer

By Arun George

  • Adbri (ABC AU) has disclosed a non-binding proposal from CRH (CRH LN) and Barro at A$3.20 per share, a 41.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.27 (13 December).
  • The offer is the best and final offer. The Board has granted an exclusive due diligence period, which ends on 28 February 2024. 
  • The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal. The offer requires FIRB approval (ACCC approval is not mentioned). The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges.  

Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU) Frowns On Genesis’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), an operator of dental centers, has announced – and immediately rejected – a non-binding proposal from Genesis Capital Manager.
  • Genesis, holder of 18.75% of shares out, has offered A$1.40/share, by way of a Scheme. That’s a less-than-inspiring 17.1% premium to last close. 
  • PSQ calls the Offer “opportunistically timed”. That has merit, after the share price recently touched a multi-year low.  Separately, PSQ is seeking a new CEO after Mckenzie resigned in August.

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Daily Brief South Korea: LG Display, Shinhan Financial, Taihan Electric Wire and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Display: Announces a Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.36 Trillion Won
  • Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates
  • Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offering of 50% of Outstanding Shares


LG Display: Announces a Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.36 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • LG Display announced today that it will conduct a rights offering capital raise worth 1.36 trillion won. 
  • The rights offering capital raise involves 142 million shares, which represent 39.7% of its existing outstanding shares. 
  • We believe this rights offering will have a negative impact on LG Display’s share price as it will significantly dilute existing shareholders. 

Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

By Sanghyun Park

  • The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures’ spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.
  • Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures’ calendar spread trading.
  • Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.

Taihan Electric Wire: Rights Offering of 50% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Last week, Taihan Electric Wire announced a rights offering of 50% of its outstanding shares.  The company is expected to raise 526 billion won. 
  • Taihan Electric Wire is expected to use the rights offering proceeds to mostly expand its submarine cable production.
  • With the share price falling 21% since the announcement of the rights offering last week, Taihan Electric Wire looks more attractive.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Indo Tambangraya Megah and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • ITMG IJ: A Healthy 15% Yield Despite the Coal Price Correction, With >50% Mkt Cap In Cash


ITMG IJ: A Healthy 15% Yield Despite the Coal Price Correction, With >50% Mkt Cap In Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • Newcastle coal prices have normalized from the highs of USD 450/ton (in September 2022) to current levels of USD 145/ton (a 68% correction from the peak). 
  • From profits of 100 mn USD/month, we are now down to 90-100 mn USD/quarter. Despite this, the stock trades at 4.5x PE with a 15% dividend yield. 
  • An added buffer of 850 mn USD of net cash represents 50% of the market capitalization. 

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Most Read: Allkem Ltd, Walsin Lihwa, Tongcheng Travel Holdings , NIO , WuXi AppTec, Hankook & Company, Link Administration, LG Display and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO
  • China Consumption Weekly: East Buy, NIO, Tencent, PDD, Alibaba, JD.com
  • WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) – How Bad Things Could Be?
  • Hankook & Company (000240 KS): MBK Raises Partial Offer to KRW24,000
  • Link Admin (LNK AU): Mitsubishi UFJ’s Bittersweet Scheme
  • LG Display: Announces a Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.36 Trillion Won
  • Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer
  • Ohayo Japan | Nippon Steel Forges Ahead with Deal for U.S. Steel


Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

By Travis Lundy

  • The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. 
  • It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is “good risk arb risk”
  • But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details here.

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves

By Brian Freitas

  • The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
  • Stocks with buy flows dropped 0.51% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows dropped 0.92%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -0.21% vs -0.75%.
  • Since the start of November, the adds have outperformed the deletes and the TWSE INDEX. There has been significant outperformance in just the last week.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

By Brian Freitas

  • It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
  • The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
  • There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.

China Consumption Weekly: East Buy, NIO, Tencent, PDD, Alibaba, JD.com

By Ming Lu

  • East Buy’s stock price plunged after a conflict broke out between the top broadcaster and the management team.
  • NIO will launch another brand for low price products, following BYD’s low price and Li Auto’s price reduction.
  • Tencent will move its unimportant assets to China Literature again.

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) – How Bad Things Could Be?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Recent business updates of WuXi Bio led to a decline in WuXi AppTec’s share price and changed investors’ expectations for CXO. Now is the time to adjust forecasts.
  • We analyzed the growth rate of various business of WuXi AppTec in 2024. In a neutral scenario, growth next year could fall short of management’s guidance.Reversal in 2025 is uncertain.
  • If WuXi AppTec “unexpectedly” receives blockbuster orders, which are large enough to hedge against the downward trend of WuXi AppTec’s other businesses, then it will help to change performance expectations.

Hankook & Company (000240 KS): MBK Raises Partial Offer to KRW24,000

By Arun George

  • MBK Partners has increased its Hankook & Company (000240 KS) partial tender offer to KRW24,000 per share, 20.0% and 51.4% above its previous offer and the last close, respectively.
  • While the offer is attractive, we estimate that the minimum acceptance condition of 19.3 million shares (20.35% of outstanding shares) requires an 84.3% minority acceptance rate. 
  • The minority acceptance rate is challenging unless MBK can secure a ruling preventing share purchases from Cho Yang-rai, who disclosed a 2.72% stake on 14 December and opposes the tender. 

Link Admin (LNK AU): Mitsubishi UFJ’s Bittersweet Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Link Administration (LNK AU), the largest provider of services in Australia’s superannuation administration industry, has entered into a Scheme with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.
  • MUFJ is offering long-suffering Link shareholders A$2.10/share (in cash) plus a A$0.16/share dividend (25% franked), or a 32.9% premium, all-in, to the undisturbed price. It has not been declared final. 
  • The Offer has the board’s backing. A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in May with possible completion in June 2024. 

LG Display: Announces a Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.36 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • LG Display announced today that it will conduct a rights offering capital raise worth 1.36 trillion won. 
  • The rights offering capital raise involves 142 million shares, which represent 39.7% of its existing outstanding shares. 
  • We believe this rights offering will have a negative impact on LG Display’s share price as it will significantly dilute existing shareholders. 

Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer

By Arun George

  • Link Administration (LNK AU) has entered a SID with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) at A$2.26 (A$2.10 scheme consideration + A$0.16 dividend), a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The presence of several substantial shareholders, lack of irrevocables, a light offer, recent derisking of the business and a long-dated offer pose a challenge for the scheme to get up. 
  • MUFG’s offer could spark a rival offer, but Link’s long-suffering shareholders have endured a history of failed bids. At the last close, the risk/reward is unfavourable.

Ohayo Japan | Nippon Steel Forges Ahead with Deal for U.S. Steel

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.5%, M&A action drives market higher. Fed talks down interest rate cuts.
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.1% v cash. JPY 142.9; Japan’s FSA wants to overhaul tender offer rules; Mit Elec to step up cross-share unwind
  • Japan: Nippon Steel’s $15bn acquisition of U.S. Steel is a bold move; it secures a top-three global position & substantial share in the EV e-steel market.

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Daily Brief ESG: Klockner Pentaplast – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Klockner Pentaplast – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Klockner Pentaplast – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Klockner Pentaplast’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


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Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, Culp Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Energy Cable #50: Oil Back in Fashion
  • Culp, Inc. – Introducing Updated Model; FY24 Estimates Unchanged


Energy Cable #50: Oil Back in Fashion

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Welcome to this week’s Energy Cable.
  • We finally got stopped out of our crude oil trade at the beginning of last week, only to see crude rally at the end of the week on the back of the FOMC meeting and again today due to the supply chain.
  • We also entered a long in utilities as advertised last week and we are already enjoying a healthy plus, also as a consequence of the FOMC.

Culp, Inc. – Introducing Updated Model; FY24 Estimates Unchanged

By Water Tower Research

  • After inputting data from the Culp 2QFY24 Form 10Q filing, FY24 estimates are unchanged. We moderated FY25 and FY26 revenue and profit expectations.
  • This note incorporates that filing and introduces our reformatted earnings model. We hope the revised model and reformatting will be easier to read and understand.
  • As is our custom, our working excel models are available to our readers on request. 

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