Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: AppLovin , Cisco Systems, Blackrock Inc, Wynn Resorts, Ecolab Inc, IDEXX Laboratories, Illumina Inc, The Walt Disney Co, Aflac Inc, Home Depot Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • AppLovin Corporation: A Laser-Focused Strategy That Is Paying Off Big Time! – Major Drivers
  • Cisco Systems Inc.: Acquisition Of Oort & Other Major Developments
  • BlackRock Inc.: Why Are They Successfully Winning Over Investment Clients? – Key Drivers
  • Wynn Resorts: The Strategic Partnership With Preferred Hotels & Resorts Expected To Be A Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers
  • Ecolab Inc.: Does It Have Any Kind Of Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
  • IDEXX Laboratories Inc.: Expansion Of The Renal Testing Portfolio & Other Major Drivers
  • Illumina Inc.: Unveiling the Growth Strategies That Spiked Clinical Sequencing! – Major Drivers
  • The Walt Disney Company: Radical Changes That Turned Disney Into an Entertainment Powerhouse! – Major Drivers
  • Aflac Incorporated: Strategic Alliances That Are Set to Propel Their Future! – Major Drivers
  • The Home Depot: Can The Acquisition Of Temco Logistics Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers


AppLovin Corporation: A Laser-Focused Strategy That Is Paying Off Big Time! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AppLovin Corporation managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The Software Platform sector achieved significant revenue of $406 million, which reflects an increase of 28% over the previous year.
  • With $334 million in sales from apps and $61 million in adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter, the company had an 18% margin.

Cisco Systems Inc.: Acquisition Of Oort & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Cisco Systems delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, accomplishing the company’s financial and operational goals.
  • Additionally, Cisco produced solid margins, a significant operational cash flow, and solid shareholder value, returning $10.6 billion through share repurchases and rising cash dividends.
  • Cisco Systems generated approximately $57 billion in sales, up 11% from the previous year and the fastest annual revenue growth rate in more than ten years.

BlackRock Inc.: Why Are They Successfully Winning Over Investment Clients? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BlackRock delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • BlackRock achieved $190 billion in total net inflows, indicating favorable flows from wealth and institutional customers across regions.
  • BlackRock generated $48 billion in net inflows during the quarter, taking the leading market share of ETF industry flows.

Wynn Resorts: The Strategic Partnership With Preferred Hotels & Resorts Expected To Be A Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Wynn Resorts delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • During the quarter, Wynn Las Vegas generated $224.1 million in adjusted property EBITDA on $578.1 million in operating revenue, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 38.8%.
  • Additionally, Wynn Resorts had strong hotel occupancy and excellent tenant retail sales in July.

Ecolab Inc.: Does It Have Any Kind Of Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ecolab delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • The company’s effective execution and easing inflationary pressures contributed to reaching the upper end of its projected Q2 earnings growth range.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

IDEXX Laboratories Inc.: Expansion Of The Renal Testing Portfolio & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • IDEXX Laboratories surpassed Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations, showcasing strong growth and financial performance.
  • The company achieved a 10% organic increase in overall revenues, driven by remarkable growth in CAG Diagnostics’ recurring payments.
  • IDEXX’s solid performance was particularly evident in the significant placements of premium instruments, sustained new business gains, and strong growth in recurring veterinary software revenues.

Illumina Inc.: Unveiling the Growth Strategies That Spiked Clinical Sequencing! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Illumina managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Illumina exceeded its expectations, with approximately $1.18 billion in revenue and diluted non-GAAP EPS of $0.32.
  • In the quarter, the company sold 109 NovaSeq X instruments, and their team plans to offer more than 390 instruments over the entire year.

The Walt Disney Company: Radical Changes That Turned Disney Into an Entertainment Powerhouse! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Walt Disney Company delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations, but managed an earnings beat.
  • The company made significant management adjustments and productivity enhancements to develop a more economical, coordinated, and streamlined approach to operations.
  • Disney+ core subscribers increased during the quarter, with foreign growth more than balancing small domestic net losses.

Aflac Incorporated: Strategic Alliances That Are Set to Propel Their Future! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Aflac managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue and earnings.
  • The company’s diligent efforts and strategic initiatives in the United States and Japan have yielded strong results, positioning Aflac for future growth.
  • In Japan, the rollout of new products like WINGS cancer insurance and refreshed policies have contributed to significant sales growth, particularly in the cancer insurance segment.

The Home Depot: Can The Acquisition Of Temco Logistics Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Home Depot delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, with sales of $42.9 billion.
  • Comp sales for the entire firm, as well as for the company’s US locations, fell in the quarter.
  • The second quarter’s pro sales performance was slightly worse than the DIY customer’s performance.

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Daily Brief Japan: Rakuten Bank , Daiwa House Reit Investment, Lixil Group, Sony Corp, Honda Motor Co Ltd (Adr) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank (5838) – 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks
  • Daiwa House REIT Placement – Sponsor Cutting Stake, Would Likely Need a Wider Correction
  • Lixil (5938 JP): Levered Business Facing Cyclical & Secular Headwinds & Continued Mkt Share Pressure
  • Sony Group Corporation: 3 Must-Know Drivers Responsible For Its Growth! – Financial Forecasts
  • Honda Motor Co Ltd: Unveiling the 5 Factors That Will Propel Honda’s Momentum in Coming Quarters! – Major Drivers


Rakuten Bank (5838) – 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks

By Travis Lundy

  • Four months ago, Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) was IPOed too low, then the price went up. It would appear foreign active ownership is relatively high.
  • Rakuten Bank stands out with high ROE and earnings growth. Banks stand out because, well, they’re going up. 
  • Given expected 5yr earnings growth, Rakuten Bank at current price is probably “wrong.” But it has much less “bankness” than most banks, so you have to think about it differently.

Daiwa House REIT Placement – Sponsor Cutting Stake, Would Likely Need a Wider Correction

By Clarence Chu

  • Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP) is looking to raise US$175m from trimming a portion of its stake in Daiwa House Reit Investment (8984 JP).
  • Given that a selldown in the REIT hadn’t been explicitly guided, we would thus argue that the deal here isn’t particularly well flagged.
  • Overall, the base deal would represent 4.09% of the REIT’s total outstanding shares, representing 20 days of three month ADV.

Lixil (5938 JP): Levered Business Facing Cyclical & Secular Headwinds & Continued Mkt Share Pressure

By Robert C Prather Jr

  • 2/3 of sales face secular decline in housing demand/shrinking population and the other 1/3 facing weak housing environment due to rising rates
  • Competition from private label and weak trends and ratios exist
  • The valuation does not seem to reflect the risks highlighted

Sony Group Corporation: 3 Must-Know Drivers Responsible For Its Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Sony Group Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
  • However, consolidated operating income fell because the Financial Services segment’s operating income fell.
  • Software sales for the quarter increased mostly due to the launching of the enticing third-party software and increased PS5 penetration.

Honda Motor Co Ltd: Unveiling the 5 Factors That Will Propel Honda’s Momentum in Coming Quarters! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Honda Motor delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but surpassed the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • Unit sales for Power Products operations fell to 5.645 million units, mostly because of a fall in North America.
  • The supply conditions for semiconductors gradually improved throughout the quarter, which led to greater unit sales in the United States year over year.

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Most Read: Jio Financial Services, Digital Core REIT, Ichigo Inc, Rakuten Bank , Kakao Games , Daiwa House Reit Investment, Doosan Robotics, Auckland Intl Airport, Abacus Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN): Upcoming Passive Selling & Timing
  • REIT Pair Trade: Long DCREIT SP/ Short KDCREIT SP
  • Ichigo (2337) Buyback – History and Shareholder Structure Give an Edge
  • Rakuten Bank (5838) – 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 49 Companies in Korea in September 2023
  • Daiwa House REIT Placement – Sponsor Cutting Stake, Would Likely Need a Wider Correction
  • Doosan Robotics IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst
  • Auckland Airport Placement – Well Flagged, LO Support but Still a Bit Tricky
  • Doosan Robotics IPO: Valuation Insights
  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: Abacus Group Could Be Deleted


Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN): Upcoming Passive Selling & Timing

By Brian Freitas


REIT Pair Trade: Long DCREIT SP/ Short KDCREIT SP

By Brian Freitas


Ichigo (2337) Buyback – History and Shareholder Structure Give an Edge

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Ichigo Inc (2337 JP) announced a stock buyback to go through the next 6 months. It is ¥3bn, which is not huge, but not nothing.
  • It seems like a constant refrain, but shareholder structure matters. 
  • Ichigo has a history of doing buybacks (10% of shares out are in treasury), and the historical patterns are interesting when comparing announced intention and actual result. 

Rakuten Bank (5838) – 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks

By Travis Lundy

  • Four months ago, Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) was IPOed too low, then the price went up. It would appear foreign active ownership is relatively high.
  • Rakuten Bank stands out with high ROE and earnings growth. Banks stand out because, well, they’re going up. 
  • Given expected 5yr earnings growth, Rakuten Bank at current price is probably “wrong.” But it has much less “bankness” than most banks, so you have to think about it differently.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 49 Companies in Korea in September 2023

By Douglas Kim


Daiwa House REIT Placement – Sponsor Cutting Stake, Would Likely Need a Wider Correction

By Clarence Chu

  • Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP) is looking to raise US$175m from trimming a portion of its stake in Daiwa House Reit Investment (8984 JP).
  • Given that a selldown in the REIT hadn’t been explicitly guided, we would thus argue that the deal here isn’t particularly well flagged.
  • Overall, the base deal would represent 4.09% of the REIT’s total outstanding shares, representing 20 days of three month ADV.

Doosan Robotics IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst

By Ethan Aw

  • Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. 
  • Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module. 
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.

Auckland Airport Placement – Well Flagged, LO Support but Still a Bit Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • Auckland City Council plans to sell around 4.5% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.
  • The deal is very well flagged with Auckland City Council having publicly stated their intention to sell 7% of the stock in Jun 2023.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Doosan Robotics IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: Abacus Group Could Be Deleted

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be one deletion from the index and a bunch of capping changes.
  • The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade of A$21m. There are two stocks with over A$5m to trade.
  • Short interest has increased on a few REITs recently while decreasing on most of the other names.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Antler Joins SaaS Insurtech Platform CHOYS’s US$1.1M Seed Round and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Antler Joins SaaS Insurtech Platform CHOYS’s US$1.1M Seed Round
  • Northstar, AppWorks Join Latest Round of Indonesian Healthtech Firm PrimaKu
  • Indonesia Agri-Fintech Startup PasarMIKRO Nets Investment from DEG, Ceniarth


Antler Joins SaaS Insurtech Platform CHOYS’s US$1.1M Seed Round

By e27

  • CHOYS, a SaaS insurtech platform for corporate employees in Southeast Asia, has closed a US$1.1 million seed funding round with investors, including Wing Vasiksiri, Foremast, Antler, and Fintech Nation Fund. 
  • The company will use the money for its go-to-market strategy across Southeast Asia and to bolster its product development initiatives.
  • Founded by Sharon Li and Vanessa Chen, CHOYS aims to make work life more meaningful and humanised.

Northstar, AppWorks Join Latest Round of Indonesian Healthtech Firm PrimaKu

By Tech in Asia

  • PrimaKu was born in 2017 out of a vision to overcome childhood stunting problems in Indonesia, according to Muhammad Aditriya Indraputra, its co-founder and CEO.
  • Six years later, it has evolved into a full-stack digital platform for all parenting needs. The startup has just secured an undisclosed amount in pre-series A funding round led by Northstar Group and AppWorks.
  • Other participating investors include BRI Ventures and BIG Ventures.

Indonesia Agri-Fintech Startup PasarMIKRO Nets Investment from DEG, Ceniarth

By e27

  • PasarMIKRO, a fintech company focussing on smallholder farmers, fishermen, and traders in Indonesia, has raised an undisclosed amount in funding from German finance company DEG and Ceniarth, a single-family office dedicated to impact-first investing.
  • This funding comes off the back of the startup’s seed round in November 2022, led by Trihill Capital, with participation from 1982 Ventures, Genting Ventures, Resolution Ventures, Gayo Capital, and Rabo Foundation.
  • It will utilise the investment to expand its trade and trade finance service offerings and strengthen its network of smallholder farmers, fishermen, and traders.

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Daily Brief ESG: Higher P/E Is Driver for This Stock Rally. Profit Growth Is Necessary for Further Stock Rally and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Higher P/E Is Driver for This Stock Rally. Profit Growth Is Necessary for Further Stock Rally


Higher P/E Is Driver for This Stock Rally. Profit Growth Is Necessary for Further Stock Rally

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Despite disclosing “improvement measures,” many companies have yet to see their stock prices rise sufficiently, which is one reason why an increasing number of companies announce enhanced shareholder returns.
  • 2003 and 2013 were the starting point for monetary easing and excess liquidity helped raise P/B. Whether BOJ will head for the exit or continue easing is a major factor.
  • Since this stock price rally was brought about by an increase in P/E multiples, further stock price appreciation will require continued profit growth, i.e., an increase in ROE.

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Daily Brief ECM: Doosan Robotics IPO: The Bear Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Robotics IPO: The Bear Case
  • VNG IPO: Scaling Up
  • Malo Medical Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Doosan Robotics IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is a global industrial and collaborative robotics leader. It has opened the books on an up to US$318 million IPO.  
  • In Doosan Robotics IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on business plan forecasts based on shaky assumptions, high cash burn, rising cash collection cycle and deteriorating balance sheet strength.

VNG IPO: Scaling Up

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Vietnamese tech start-up VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) has filed for an IPO in the US and according to news media outlets, the company plans to raise proceeds of around US$300-400m.
  • VNG’s business model resembles that of China’s Tencent (700 HK) with games accounting for most of VNG’s revenues. Other business segments are in early stages of monetisation.
  • Our analysis suggests that VNG’s businesses have strong potential and the company could further reduce its operating losses with scale and further financial discipline.

Malo Medical Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Sumeet Singh

  • Malo Medical Management (MMM HK) (MMM) is looking to raise around US$100m (estimated) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Haitong.
  • MMM is a dental service provider in China. It ranked ninth among all private dental service providers and second among all premium dental service providers, as per F&S.
  • MMM provides dental services to patients through a widespread network of Malo Clinic-branded specialty dental clinics. As of Apr 2023, it owned 29 dental clinics in 13 cities in China.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|”Past Peak Rate” View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Reach Record High and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|”Past Peak Rate” View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Reach Record High
  • US Banks – Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further
  • China TMT Update-Douyin/Baba/JD/3690.HK/9699.HK-Meituan’s Cooperation with SF Intra-City
  • China TMT Update-Zlab/BILI/Tencent/NetEase-The Latest Batch of Game Code/Umamusume: Pretty Derby
  • [Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: NetEase Has Better Pipeline in Gamescom-Cologne
  • 10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation
  • China Property – The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023


Ohayo Japan|”Past Peak Rate” View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Reach Record High

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Past Peak Rates – Equities continue upward trajectory;  9/11 SPX sectors  up as Tech leads; Yields down post weaker than expected ADP Employment; More China Measures for Economy
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member: BOJ May normalize in 2024; Govt Extends Gasoline Subsidy Program
  • JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Break Decades-Old Records, being fueled foreign buying spurred by weaker yen. Potential Boon for Tokyo Focused Developers-IF they can secure labor and keep GPM

US Banks – Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Weekly data to 23 July in the US shows 30 year fixed mortgage rates hitting new highs at 7.23%
  • The past two weeks show mortgage rate increases accelerating, and up 45bps from 20 July data
  • Mortgage loan volume index is approaching 1990, weekly purchases index continues downward

China TMT Update-Douyin/Baba/JD/3690.HK/9699.HK-Meituan’s Cooperation with SF Intra-City

By Shawn Yang

  • ” EastBuy 东方甄选 ” is conducting live broadcasts on Taobao.
  • JD.com officially launches the upgraded ” Spring Dawn Plan “
  • 3690.HK/9699.HK/JD: Meituan announces cooperation with SF Intra-city and others (+/+/-)

China TMT Update-Zlab/BILI/Tencent/NetEase-The Latest Batch of Game Code/Umamusume: Pretty Derby

By Shawn Yang

  • Novecure’s TTF Phase III trial failed to reach end point, negative for ZLAB (-)
  • “Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby” launched by Bilibili on August 29
  • NPPA recently released the latest batch of August approvals of game license

[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: NetEase Has Better Pipeline in Gamescom-Cologne

By Shawn Yang

  • At the recent Gamescom-Cologne event, both Tencent and NetEase showcased their latest games. We believe that NetEase has a stronger game pipeline compared to Tencent.
  • According to our estimates, the total annual gross billings from all the games showcased by Tencent should be around RMB 9-12 bn, while NetEase’s should be 10-13 bn. 
  • This accounts for approximately 6.3% and 15.6% of their respective gaming revenues in 2024. We maintain a buy rating for both companies, but NetEase remains our top pick.

10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

By Tina Banerjee

  • On August 29, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services unveiled list of 10 drugs, which will come for the first round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • From June 2022 to May 2023, more than 8 million people covered by Medicare used these 10 drugs, which accounted for more than $50B spending in Medicare Part D.
  • The negotiated price will be effective on January 1, 2026. Most of the companies will not be significantly impacted by the drug price negotiation.

China Property – The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • China housing metrics for July and August remained weak, in line with our forecast from December data, but watch out for some major data twists
  • The new wave of policy easing responds to the re-weakening of the market since April, though the impact may not show quickly, as the Zhengzhou example illustrates
  • Cities are quick to implement the new rules, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Guangzhou in the past few days 

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Daily Brief Credit: Hopson Development – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hopson Development – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Fosun International


Hopson Development – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Hopson’s H1/23 results were strong as expected, and will likely outperform those of many other POE developers. The top line grew 14% y-o-y to HKD 15.1 bn. Gross profit surged 75% to HKD 5.4 bn, with the gross margin rising by 12 ppts to 36%.

The company also managed to cut net debt by HKD 5 bn. We expect Hopson’s contracted sales and cash collection to be supported in the next 1-2 years by its high-quality land bank and CNY 47 bn of saleable resources. In addition, we believe the company faces low near-term repayment risk, given the limited ST bond maturities.

Our Credit Bias on Hopson is “Stable”. That said, we believe the bond price could be volatile amid the weak market sentiment and poor technicals. We maintain our “Hold” recommendation on the HPDLF curve.


Morning Views Asia: Fosun International

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: STAR CM (6698 HK): Grave Accusations and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR CM (6698 HK): Grave Accusations
  • Ichigo (2337) Buyback – History and Shareholder Structure Give an Edge
  • REIT Pair Trade: Long DCREIT SP/ Short KDCREIT SP
  • GS AM Consortium/​ Kahoot!: Extension of Acceptance Period, Spread


STAR CM (6698 HK): Grave Accusations

By David Blennerhassett

  • STAR CM Holdings (6698 HK), a variety program intellectual property creator and operator, was listed last December and promptly gained 475% by early August. All good so far.
  • Shares cratered on the 18 August (-23.4%) and are currently 76% adrift from its recent high. The reason? A viral clip from late pop diva Coco Lee discussing unfair treatment.
  • The music competition show, in which Coco appeared, pushed back on any impropriety; however, its broadcaster has temporarily suspended the program. This is no easy fix.

Ichigo (2337) Buyback – History and Shareholder Structure Give an Edge

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Ichigo Inc (2337 JP) announced a stock buyback to go through the next 6 months. It is ¥3bn, which is not huge, but not nothing.
  • It seems like a constant refrain, but shareholder structure matters. 
  • Ichigo has a history of doing buybacks (10% of shares out are in treasury), and the historical patterns are interesting when comparing announced intention and actual result. 

REIT Pair Trade: Long DCREIT SP/ Short KDCREIT SP

By Brian Freitas


GS AM Consortium/​ Kahoot!: Extension of Acceptance Period, Spread

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • It may take some time before shareholders can see how Kahoot’s significant investments in market share and business growth pay off in a positive bottom line.
  • GS AM already has c.59% and the current extension lasts until 8 September. Spread is 2.9%/15.4% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 13 November).
  • Taking a NOK 31.2 break, the last closing share price implies just 74% probability of deal completion, however I believe the spread will close following. I’d be long the shares.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: NYKAA IN | Nykaa Fashion Appears to Be Mismanaged and in Need of a Change and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • NYKAA IN | Nykaa Fashion Appears to Be Mismanaged and in Need of a Change
  • Pinduoduo (PDD US): Don’t Fight with PDD
  • Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) – Ring My Digital Bell
  • PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) – Painting by Numbers
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: New Huawei Phone Works Around U.S. Restrictions?; Taiwan AI Stocks Surging Again
  • Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC, ASE Technology, and ChipMOS Opportunities
  • Yageo: Company Visit — Improving Revenue Quality & Cashed-Up Actively Looking For Acquisitions
  • Ping An Insurance – Weak Results, Net Asset Growth 5% From 9%, Profit Delta -Ve In Many Divisions
  • Greentown China (3900 HK):  Disciplined Market Share Gainer Amid Chaos
  • Keep (3650): Mixed H123 and Slow Post-Pandemic Recovery. Will Growth Story Come To an End?


NYKAA IN | Nykaa Fashion Appears to Be Mismanaged and in Need of a Change

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • As part of our Narrative and Numbers themed Annual Report insights, we shift our focus to FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN).
  • We focus on Nykaa Fashion due to its financial significance in spite of not being a material subsidiary warranting the need for board review on materiality policy.
  • Notable issues demanding scrutiny include (1) Declining Financials, (2) Inconsistent Reporting, (3) Misleading Narrative, and (4) Elevated Executive Compensation.

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Don’t Fight with PDD

By Eric Chen

  • PDD reported blowout 2Q results with bottom line beating consensus by 40% thanks to stronger domestic marketplaces business, narrower losses incurred by TEMU and higher other income.
  • 2Q results cleared much of our concern around PDD’s bottom line growth and we now see 2Q as the low point of earnings growth in FY23.
  • We believe the company will report $9 billion net profit for FY23 and expect rounds of earnings revision by the street will further lift share price. US $120 price target.

Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) – Ring My Digital Bell

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ)‘s 1H2023 results looked solid but drilling down 2Q2023 looked a lot more encouraging in terms of growth and higher ARPUs for Telkomsel.  
  • Ongoing digital initiatives are yielding positive results and Indihome continues to register positive results, with its merger with Telkomsel underlining convergence strategy. Data centre consolidation looks like a future spin-off. 
  • Telkom continues to enrich its digital ecosystem with services and make it more accessible to less affluent subscribers. Valuations remain attractive at less than 5.0x forward EV/EBITDA

PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) – Painting by Numbers

By Angus Mackintosh

  • PT Avia Avian is Indonesia’s leading integrated paint manufacturing company with around 20% market share. It is undergoing a strong recovery in margins as raw material inputs have stabilised. 
  • The company continues to expand both its distribution centres and the range of products it offers, with a strong emphasis on below-the-line marketing, reaching 54,000 retail outlets.
  • PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) is an interesting proxy for the strong recovery in Indonesia’s economy and property market, with the added tailwind of lower input costs. Valuations are attractive. 

Taiwan Tech Weekly: New Huawei Phone Works Around U.S. Restrictions?; Taiwan AI Stocks Surging Again

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Huawei’s new Mate 60 Pro phone has made many wonder if it has worked around U.S. technology restrictions to produce a 5G-capable chip domestically.
  • Nvidia hits new all-time highs… Taiwan AI-supply chain stocks are surging again.
  • Dell will report earnings — Look for PC upgrade cycle color and AI PC comments. SEMICON Taiwan is coming soon, we will attend.

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC, ASE Technology, and ChipMOS Opportunities

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 9.2% premium — Trending down, can consider shorting the ADR vs. the local.
  • ASE: 10.5% premium is historically high — Short the ADR vs. the local.
  • ChipMOS: -0.4% discount, ADRs have lagged Taiwan shares — Long ADR vs. local.

Yageo: Company Visit — Improving Revenue Quality & Cashed-Up Actively Looking For Acquisitions

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • We visited Yageo’s headquarters to learn more about the business and strategy. We expect revenue quality to improve, margins to rise through 2025E, and possible accretive acquisitions.
  • The company is a heavily shorted stock based on our short model — This implies short squeeze potential we believe. The company has over US$1.5bn of dry powder for acquisitions.
  • We rate Yageo as a Structural Long with a NT$690 target price. Potential upside catalysts outnumber downside catalysts in our view.

Ping An Insurance – Weak Results, Net Asset Growth 5% From 9%, Profit Delta -Ve In Many Divisions

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Weak results at Ping An Insurance across many divisions, with banking most important
  • Life and Health negative insurance revenue delta, not offset by insurance cost delta
  • Net asset growth is now at 5% YoY, from 9% YoY last year, from ~29% avg for years

Greentown China (3900 HK):  Disciplined Market Share Gainer Amid Chaos

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Greentown China (3900 HK) is a high quality China property developer that is unfairly suppressed given the extreme pessimism of the sector. 
  • Even though the overall sales of China property industry will likely continue to decline, the market is large enough that some developers could stand to gain massive market share. 
  • The company trades at 2.5x 2024E PE, and 71% discount to NAV, with expected growth in net profit in 2023 and 2024. 

Keep (3650): Mixed H123 and Slow Post-Pandemic Recovery. Will Growth Story Come To an End?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Keep Inc (3650 HK) , the largest online fitness platform in China, announced interim results for the six months ended Jun-23. The overall revenue growth is slowing down. 
  • The company completed its Hong Kong IPO of ~10.8M shares at HK$28.92 (bottom of the range) and raised ~HK$192M (~$25M) of net proceeds. CICC led the offering.
  • Keep appears well capitalized to outperform despite China’s temporary slowdown in fitness activities. I remain cautious on Keep stock after a downsized IPO, but I like the long-term fitness story. 

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