Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ESG: Share Buyback Are Likely Due to Reduction of Shares in Retirement Benefit Trusts and Policy Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Share Buyback Are Likely Due to Reduction of Shares in Retirement Benefit Trusts and Policy Holdings


Share Buyback Are Likely Due to Reduction of Shares in Retirement Benefit Trusts and Policy Holdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s difficult to justify the low ROE based on criteria for judging reasonableness of NSK’s policy-shareholdings: “NSK will reduce policy-shareholdings that aren’t rationale for increasing corporate value over mid-to-long term.
  • For NSK with a market capitalization of just under 500 billion yen, 50.1 billion yen in policy stockholdings plus 128.3 billion yen in retirement benefit trust shares is too much.
  • Based on past performance trends, the ROE is not expected to rise all at once as profits recover, but the company may continue to raise shareholder returns through share repurchases.

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Daily Brief Utilities: NSK Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Share Buyback Are Likely Due to Reduction of Shares in Retirement Benefit Trusts and Policy Holdings


Share Buyback Are Likely Due to Reduction of Shares in Retirement Benefit Trusts and Policy Holdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s difficult to justify the low ROE based on criteria for judging reasonableness of NSK’s policy-shareholdings: “NSK will reduce policy-shareholdings that aren’t rationale for increasing corporate value over mid-to-long term.
  • For NSK with a market capitalization of just under 500 billion yen, 50.1 billion yen in policy stockholdings plus 128.3 billion yen in retirement benefit trust shares is too much.
  • Based on past performance trends, the ROE is not expected to rise all at once as profits recover, but the company may continue to raise shareholder returns through share repurchases.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 21st): China Vanke and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 21st): China Vanke, New China Life, BYD, CMOC, Asymchem, Huaneng
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 21st): Tencent, HSBC
  • Northbound Flows (Jul 21st): ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 21st): China Vanke, New China Life, BYD, CMOC, Asymchem, Huaneng

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.2% as of Jul 21st.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -1.8ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, information technology and offset by real estate, utilities.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Vanke, New China Life, BYD, CMOC, Asymchem, Huaneng, China Longyuan.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 21st): Tencent, HSBC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 21st.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We estimate the inflows to be USD 2.1billion and highlight flows for Tencent, Hsbc.

Northbound Flows (Jul 21st): ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 21st.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,012.2 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services, real estate.
  • We highlight flows for ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL.

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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, JSW Steel Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | NIFTY Index WEEKLY: Topping (In The) Tails
  • Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries


EQD | NIFTY Index WEEKLY: Topping (In The) Tails

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index has been in a strong rally since early April 2023, returning almost +17% as of last Friday’s Close. The MRM tool shows the index is OVERBOUGHT WEEKLY .
  • The NIFTY Index has reached a “Tails” area of the current pattern: forecasts in these price areas are less reliable, but the MRM tool indicates the index is topping.
  • SHORT trades can be implemented at prices > Last Close (19745). Higher prices are possible, it could take +1/+2 weeks for the index to complete its topping process.

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief South Korea: LG Energy Solution, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) – Potential Float Increase Coming Up
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY: Rising After a Brief Pullback


LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) – Potential Float Increase Coming Up

By Brian Freitas

  • Selling from the ESOP program in the first quarter could result in an increase in LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)‘s float in local and global indices.
  • The largest buying from passive trackers could take place next month with over 3% of the real float needing to be bought.
  • Short interest has increased in the last month and short covering could take the stock higher ahead of the passive buying.

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY: Rising After a Brief Pullback

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) last week closed the week down (CC=-1) after a strong rise the previous week. Could be getting ready to rise higher.
  • The index last week tested supports in the Market Reversal Matrix’s Q2/Median support area (around 335).
  • Valid support levels for the coming week (if CC=-2) are between 333 (Q2) and 324 (Q3).

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Daily Brief Australia: Fortescue Metals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Fortescue: Twiggy’s Share Separation


Fortescue: Twiggy’s Share Separation

By David Blennerhassett

  • Prior to recent developments, Andrew Forrest held a 36.25% stake in Fortescue Metals (FMG AU).
  • An ASIC shareholder disclosure into the giant iron-ore miner earlier this year fuelled speculation, culminating in an ASX notice Andrew was separating from his wife after 31 years of marriage. 
  • A private statement assures there will be no impact on the control of FMG. But that won’t put a stop to the rumour mill.

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: 111 Inc, Hainan Meilan International Airport, Edding Group, SATP Holding Inc, AP Moeller – Maersk A/S, JSW Steel Ltd, Black Sesame Technologies and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 111 (YI US): The Privatisation Offer Gets a Reboot
  • Meilan Airport (357 HK): Mixed Takeaways from Conversations with the Company
  • Pre-IPO Edding Group – CSO Model Is Hard to Sustain, but Business Transformation Faces Challenges
  • SATP Holding IPO Preview: Bringing SaaS And Automation To 50M+ SMBs In China
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Depressed, Stable | Worst of ‘Storm’ Passed (July 2023)
  • Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries
  • Black Sesame Pre-IPO – The Positives – Catering to a Growing Demand for Automotive Automation


111 (YI US): The Privatisation Offer Gets a Reboot

By Arun George

  • 111 Inc (YI US), China’s largest virtual pharmacy network, amended an SC 13D filing on 13 July, which belatedly updated the consortium’s privatisation offer of US$3.66 per ADS. 
  • The consortium has been revamped such that the lead investors (Dr Gang Yu, Dr Junling Liu and Shanghai Guosheng Capital Management) are joined with 13 additional investors.
  • The development facilitates the signing of a definite agreement. The consortium represents 95.27% of the voting power, which ensures a successful vote. At last close, the gross spread is 9.6%.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Mixed Takeaways from Conversations with the Company

By Eric Chen

  • We had a chance talking to the company about key topics about outlook of passenger traffic, recovery of duty-free sales and details about the arbitration.
  • The takeaway is mixed as we see both positives and negatives relative to our expectations.
  • We cut our forecast of 2023 net profit from RMB400 million to RMB300 million and expect the earnings to be back-end loaded.

Pre-IPO Edding Group – CSO Model Is Hard to Sustain, but Business Transformation Faces Challenges

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Vancocin/Ceclor/FPN are currently the “cash cow” for Edding, but they’re facing the challenges of generics, VBP and increasing competition. Their current market leading position may be lost in the future.
  • Edding seeks business transformation as its CSO model doesn’t work under domestic negative policies. But peak sales of three innovative drugs Vascepa/Mulpleta/EDP 125 may not reach the level of Vancocin/Ceclor.
  • Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. Its R&D capabilities have always been questioned. It’s unsure whether the market would give high valuation to a company without core competitiveness.

SATP Holding IPO Preview: Bringing SaaS And Automation To 50M+ SMBs In China

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SATP Holding, a leading China-based SMB finance and taxation solution provider, filed to go public in Hong Kong. The company is led by visionary Founder and CEO Shugang Zhang.
  • SATP Holding offers scalable SaaS-based bookkeeping and taxation solutions to SMBs in China. The proprietary SaaS system (SATP) automates tax filings and financial statement submissions.
  • According to Pitchbook and the company’s IPO prospectus, the founder-led software provider has raised ~$226M in funding across nine funding rounds.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Depressed, Stable | Worst of ‘Storm’ Passed (July 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Rates remain depressed but stable, and easier Y/Y comps will arrive in late Summer
  • Fuel costs should be a tailwind in Q2 results; Danish giant Maersk reports on August 4th
  • We expect Q2/H1 results to support our view that the worst of the storm has passed

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Black Sesame Pre-IPO – The Positives – Catering to a Growing Demand for Automotive Automation

By Clarence Chu

  • Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Japan: JSR Corp, Rakuten Group , NSK Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (24 Jul) – JSR, 111, Estia, Newcrest, InvoCare, Origin, Golden Eagle, Dali Foods
  • Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jul) – Rakuten Securities, Tryt, EbixCash, Lalatech, 111, Newcrest, Origin
  • Share Buyback Are Likely Due to Reduction of Shares in Retirement Benefit Trusts and Policy Holdings



Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jul) – Rakuten Securities, Tryt, EbixCash, Lalatech, 111, Newcrest, Origin

By Arun George


Share Buyback Are Likely Due to Reduction of Shares in Retirement Benefit Trusts and Policy Holdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s difficult to justify the low ROE based on criteria for judging reasonableness of NSK’s policy-shareholdings: “NSK will reduce policy-shareholdings that aren’t rationale for increasing corporate value over mid-to-long term.
  • For NSK with a market capitalization of just under 500 billion yen, 50.1 billion yen in policy stockholdings plus 128.3 billion yen in retirement benefit trust shares is too much.
  • Based on past performance trends, the ROE is not expected to rise all at once as profits recover, but the company may continue to raise shareholder returns through share repurchases.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JSR Corp, Fortescue Metals, JSW Steel Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (24 Jul) – JSR, 111, Estia, Newcrest, InvoCare, Origin, Golden Eagle, Dali Foods
  • Fortescue: Twiggy’s Share Separation
  • Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries



Fortescue: Twiggy’s Share Separation

By David Blennerhassett

  • Prior to recent developments, Andrew Forrest held a 36.25% stake in Fortescue Metals (FMG AU).
  • An ASIC shareholder disclosure into the giant iron-ore miner earlier this year fuelled speculation, culminating in an ASX notice Andrew was separating from his wife after 31 years of marriage. 
  • A private statement assures there will be no impact on the control of FMG. But that won’t put a stop to the rumour mill.

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief TMT/Internet: 111 Inc, SATP Holding Inc, Black Sesame Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • 111 (YI US): The Privatisation Offer Gets a Reboot
  • SATP Holding IPO Preview: Bringing SaaS And Automation To 50M+ SMBs In China
  • Black Sesame Pre-IPO – The Positives – Catering to a Growing Demand for Automotive Automation


111 (YI US): The Privatisation Offer Gets a Reboot

By Arun George

  • 111 Inc (YI US), China’s largest virtual pharmacy network, amended an SC 13D filing on 13 July, which belatedly updated the consortium’s privatisation offer of US$3.66 per ADS. 
  • The consortium has been revamped such that the lead investors (Dr Gang Yu, Dr Junling Liu and Shanghai Guosheng Capital Management) are joined with 13 additional investors.
  • The development facilitates the signing of a definite agreement. The consortium represents 95.27% of the voting power, which ensures a successful vote. At last close, the gross spread is 9.6%.

SATP Holding IPO Preview: Bringing SaaS And Automation To 50M+ SMBs In China

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SATP Holding, a leading China-based SMB finance and taxation solution provider, filed to go public in Hong Kong. The company is led by visionary Founder and CEO Shugang Zhang.
  • SATP Holding offers scalable SaaS-based bookkeeping and taxation solutions to SMBs in China. The proprietary SaaS system (SATP) automates tax filings and financial statement submissions.
  • According to Pitchbook and the company’s IPO prospectus, the founder-led software provider has raised ~$226M in funding across nine funding rounds.

Black Sesame Pre-IPO – The Positives – Catering to a Growing Demand for Automotive Automation

By Clarence Chu

  • Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars