Category

Daily Briefs

Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 18th): AIA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 18th): AIA, Yum China, Cimc
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 11th): Santos, Northern Star Resources, Technology One, Orora

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 18th): AIA, Yum China, Cimc

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 18th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Yum China (9987 HK), Cimc (2039 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 11th): Santos, Northern Star Resources, Technology One, Orora

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 11th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD25.3bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Santos, Northern Star Resources, Technology One, Orora.

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Jul 19
0

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Lg Innotek, Seven & I Holdings, Mitsui Matsushima, Ryohin Keikaku, CoreWeave, Douzone Bizon, Nanjing Leads Biolabs, Vivendi SE and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
  • KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows
  • 7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
  • [Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications
  • Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
  • CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition
  • Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
  • Nanjing Leads Biolabs IPO: Lead Asset Targets Niche Market; Path to Success Still Long
  • HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom
  • Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go

By Brian Freitas

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) could raise up to US$5.1bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
  • There is a huge allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That significantly reduces float and the probability of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
  • CATL (3750 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 16 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
  • Nearing halfway in the review period, we forecast 53 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
  • Two potential downward migrations could be deleted from a global index in August. The new listing that is a potential LargeCap add could be added to a globalindex in September.

7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb

By Travis Lundy

  • Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
  • The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
  • The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share. 
  • Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share. 
  • The Tender Offer Buyback was “successful” in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

By Brian Freitas

  • Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
  • Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
  • There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.

CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • The acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) has been completed today, 17 July and Ansys is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100.
  • CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to Nasdaq100 as the replacement because it is the highest ranked eligible non-constituent following its recent listing on 28 March 2025.
  • Top addition candidate for the December 2025 annual review is now Kimberly Clark (KMB US) following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 30 May 2025.

Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?

By Sanghyun Park

  • Founder Kim reportedly looking to offload his 21.5% stake, with EQT eyeing a ~30% control block including Shinhan’s. No succession plans, deal said to be under serious review.
  • Kim’s control premium ask could trigger Korea’s first test case of expanded fiduciary duty, with minority holders potentially suing if tender terms aren’t seen as fair under new rules.
  • Buyer likely prepping a Q3 tender offer; key watch is how minority premium stacks vs control block — could be Korea’s first de facto test case of mandatory tender mechanics.

Nanjing Leads Biolabs IPO: Lead Asset Targets Niche Market; Path to Success Still Long

By Tina Banerjee

  • Nanjing Leads Biolabs has launched HK$1.1B IPO to fund its ongoing and planned clinical development and regulatory affairs of pipeline assets. The company has fetched cornerstone investment of ~HK$ 542M.
  • Lead product candidate, LBL-024 is being evaluated for extra-pulmonary neuroendocrine carcinoma. Leads Biolabs expects to file the first BLA for LBL-024 by 3Q26 and anticipate obtaining conditional approval by 2Q27.
  • Positive investor sentiment toward Chinese biotech companies and near-term catalyst being Phase 3 data readout for LBL-024 in early 2026 are the main reasons to subscribe.

HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom

By Phil Rush

  • Persistent upside inflation surprises and sticky wage growth are lifting hawkish market narratives, defying central bank and consensus hopes for a quick return to target.
  • UK inflation jumped well above forecast in June, strengthening the hawkish case, while US core inflation shows tariffs adding to excessive underlying price pressures.
  • Next week, attention turns to the ECB decision, July flash PMIs, and UK public finances, as markets weigh central banks’ willingness to ignore resurgent inflation.

Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
  • The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi’s simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
  • With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief ESG: Companies Seem Reluctant to Hold Online AGMs with Online Attendance and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Companies Seem Reluctant to Hold Online AGMs with Online Attendance

Companies Seem Reluctant to Hold Online AGMs with Online Attendance

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Online AGMs using Internet account for 18%. More than 90% of these meetings are limited to broadcasting the meeting, without allowing shareholders to exercise their voting rights during the meeting.
  • Technical issues are cited as the reason why online shareholder meetings are not increasing, and the Ministry of Justice’s advisory board is discussing legal reforms.
  • For companies whose goal is to pass company proposals at AGMs and end quickly, even if the resolution of issues is included in legal revision, it will have little effect.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief China: Iron Ore, Hang Seng Index, Longfor Properties and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [IO Technicals 2025/29] Near Term Bullish Trend to Persist
  • Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 14 – 18): HSI at Fresh Highs But Option Volumes Lag
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

[IO Technicals 2025/29] Near Term Bullish Trend to Persist

By Umang Agrawal

  • Iron ore prices topped $100/ton as Beijing’s push on steel overcapacity and hopes of property support lifted sentiment, alongside tighter inventories fuelling restocking expectations.
  • Rio Tinto’s early Simandou shipments from November sparked fresh interest, though RBC sees output reaching just 12 million tons by 2026, ramping up slowly.
  • Prices are holding firm above key moving averages, pointing to continued upward momentum, while the MACD above its signal line reinforces the bullish trend.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 14 – 18): HSI at Fresh Highs But Option Volumes Lag

By John Ley

  • HSI continued its rally, breaking out to the highest level since early 2022.
  • Breadth was solid and all sectors finished the week higher, led by standout moves in Health Care.
  • Call volumes were underwhelming given the breakout to new highs.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Longfor Group, Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy
  • UST yields were broadly stable yesterday. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.91%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.45%. Equities rallied, following the release of strong retail sales data. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to a new high of 6,297, while the Nasdaq was up 0.7% at 20,886.
  • Several Fed officials spoke yesterday. New York Fed President John Williams said it is “entirely appropriate” to maintain the current modestly restrictive monetary policy stance, as he expects inflation to increase in the coming months. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said that he still supports holding interest rates steady, stating that inflation may be at an “inflection point” after several months of soft price increases.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Japan: Alinco Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Yoshinoya Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Alinco Inc (5933 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Companies Seem Reluctant to Hold Online AGMs with Online Attendance
  • Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update

Alinco Inc (5933 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/26 revenue rose 6.1% YoY to JPY15.4bn; operating profit increased 16.9% YoY to JPY644mn.
  • Recurring profit fell 20.5% YoY to JPY614mn; net income attributable to owners dropped 40.4% YoY to JPY399mn.
  • Construction demand and rental shifts impacted segment revenues and profits, with mixed YoY results across business areas.

Companies Seem Reluctant to Hold Online AGMs with Online Attendance

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Online AGMs using Internet account for 18%. More than 90% of these meetings are limited to broadcasting the meeting, without allowing shareholders to exercise their voting rights during the meeting.
  • Technical issues are cited as the reason why online shareholder meetings are not increasing, and the Ministry of Justice’s advisory board is discussing legal reforms.
  • For companies whose goal is to pass company proposals at AGMs and end quickly, even if the resolution of issues is included in legal revision, it will have little effect.

Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company achieved FY02/25 sales of JPY205.0bn, surpassing the JPY180.0bn target, driven by agile menu pricing.
  • Operating profit for FY02/25 reached JPY7.3bn, exceeding the JPY7.0bn target, despite rising raw material and labor costs.
  • The company maintained a strong operating margin of 6.3% in FY02/25, supported by cost control and efficiency improvements.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief ECM: Anthem Biosciences IPO Trading – Robust Insti Coverage Drives Overall Demand and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Anthem Biosciences IPO Trading – Robust Insti Coverage Drives Overall Demand
  • Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI): Peeking at the Prospectus of Another MedTech IPO

Anthem Biosciences IPO Trading – Robust Insti Coverage Drives Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

  • Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) raised about US$397m in its India IPO.
  • Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the peer comp and IPO valuations.

Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI): Peeking at the Prospectus of Another MedTech IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • They are a commercial stage medical technology company that currently offers advanced implant systems for shoulder arthroplasty.
  • They generated net revenue of $31.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to net revenue of $19.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2023 (64% growth).
  • This IPO could set terms as early as next week for a late July or early August debut. 

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): If Fed Chair Is Dismissed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • If Fed Chair Is Dismissed, Then How Will Gold React?
  • Japan Strategy | Modest Gains Amid Mounting Uncertainty
  • Thematic Report: Can Tariffs Undermine India’s Pharma Advantage?
  • Charted Insights: NBFCs Continue to Outpace Industry Credit Growth — Stronger, Faster, Deeper
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 18/07/2025
  • Hong Kong’s IPO Boom Breathes Life Into Office Sector, but Rents Still Under Pressure

If Fed Chair Is Dismissed, Then How Will Gold React?

By Amrutha Raj

  • The potential dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has created uncertainty in the markets. In the short term, this situation is favorable for gold for multiple reasons.
  • A declining U.S. dollar and increasing inflation expectations, fueled by worries regarding the independence of central banks, are expected to elevate gold prices.
  • In spite of increasing prices and a rise in call options, the implied volatility for gold has continued to decrease, notwithstanding a mild uptick observed recently.

Japan Strategy | Modest Gains Amid Mounting Uncertainty

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nikkei 225 rose 0.6% last week, a measured gain underpinned by strength in technology and defensives, despite intensifying headwinds from U.S. trade policy, domestic political fragility, and currency volatility.
  • The JPY weakened 0.8% vs USD, closing at 148.67. Japanese bonds came under pressure, with 10Y JGBs +3bps to 1.53%, reflecting nerves ahead of this weekend’s Upper House elections
  • Seven & i shares fell 13% this week after Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT) withdrew its ¥2,600 acquisition offer

Thematic Report: Can Tariffs Undermine India’s Pharma Advantage?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India is the largest exporter of generic medicines, contributing 20% to global supply, and accounts for 6% of the world’s API production.
  • India’s pharma sector offers up to 75% savings in R&D and 55% in manufacturing versus the US, making it essential despite tariff threats.
  • India’s CRDMO sector is expanding rapidly, with a projected market size of USD 14 billion by 2028, driven by increased demand for biologics and integrated manufacturing solutions.

Charted Insights: NBFCs Continue to Outpace Industry Credit Growth — Stronger, Faster, Deeper

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • NBFCs are consistently delivering higher credit growth than the overall lending industry across most asset classes—driven by demand from underserved segments and enabled by tech-led agility.
  • From FY20–25, NBFCs saw higher CAGR in 5 of the 7 loan segments, and this trend is projected to continue through FY26—reinforcing their systemic importance in India’s credit landscape.
  • NBFCs are no longer niche lenders. With higher market share in fast-growing segments like personal loans, MSME, microfinance, and consumer durables, they are outgrowing the systemic pace—indicating stronger tailwinds

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 18/07/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: AB wells deliver flow rates above expectations – Current production ranges between 4,600 and 4,800 bbl/d driven by strong performance from two new horizontal wells at Alberta Llanos (AB).
  • AB-HZ5, onstream for ~2 weeks, is producing 1,790 bbl/d (895 bbl/d net to Arrow), while AB-HZ4, online for over a month, continues to produce 880 bbl/d (440 bbl/d net).
  • Both wells are outperforming expectations in terms of flow rates and pressure, which may positively impact reserves estimates.

Hong Kong’s IPO Boom Breathes Life Into Office Sector, but Rents Still Under Pressure

By Caixin Global

  • Hong Kong’s booming IPO market is fueling a partial rebound in the city’s beleaguered office sector, with Central’s premium business district leading the recovery.
  • However, persistently high vacancy rates citywide mean rents are expected to keep falling throughout 2025, according to a report released Monday by CBRE, the real estate services company.
  • The report shows Hong Kong’s office net absorption — the net change in leased space accounting for new leases, expansions and vacancies — turned positive in the second quarter of 2025. The market recorded 147,700 square feet (13,700 square meters) of net take-up, breaking a two-quarter streak of negative figures and signaling an improvement in leasing activity.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
  • Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside
  • Clearing a Common Misconception — No Pre-Cover Needed in Hanil Stock-For-Stock Swap
  • Next Science Asset Sale to Demetra Holdings: Potential 13% Upside with Capital Return and Strategic Acquisition

Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?

By Sanghyun Park

  • Founder Kim reportedly looking to offload his 21.5% stake, with EQT eyeing a ~30% control block including Shinhan’s. No succession plans, deal said to be under serious review.
  • Kim’s control premium ask could trigger Korea’s first test case of expanded fiduciary duty, with minority holders potentially suing if tender terms aren’t seen as fair under new rules.
  • Buyer likely prepping a Q3 tender offer; key watch is how minority premium stacks vs control block — could be Korea’s first de facto test case of mandatory tender mechanics.

Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
  • The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi’s simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
  • With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.

Clearing a Common Misconception — No Pre-Cover Needed in Hanil Stock-For-Stock Swap

By Sanghyun Park

  • Some still think we must close the borrow pre-settlement in a stock-for-stock merger. But KSD handles it fine — no need to pre-cover if shares stay lendable post-swap.
  • Spread flipped negative — rare setup in Korea. Tight float on both sides (insider-heavy) is killing liquidity and borrow, leading to this reverse arb play.
  • Deal break risk is minimal, new share listing is relatively soon, and the negative spread may widen—making this a compelling setup for a reverse arb play.

Next Science Asset Sale to Demetra Holdings: Potential 13% Upside with Capital Return and Strategic Acquisition

By Special Situation Investments

  • Next Science plans to distribute net proceeds of US$30m from asset sale to shareholders, equating to A$0.158/share.
  • The asset sale requires shareholder approval, with major stakeholders like the Walker family likely supporting the transaction.
  • Uncertainties include FDA compliance issues, tax treatment of distribution, and potential changes in net proceeds estimate.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Alinco Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Alinco Inc (5933 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

Alinco Inc (5933 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/26 revenue rose 6.1% YoY to JPY15.4bn; operating profit increased 16.9% YoY to JPY644mn.
  • Recurring profit fell 20.5% YoY to JPY614mn; net income attributable to owners dropped 40.4% YoY to JPY399mn.
  • Construction demand and rental shifts impacted segment revenues and profits, with mixed YoY results across business areas.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Singapore Emerges as the Stablecoin Safehouse and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore Emerges as the Stablecoin Safehouse

Singapore Emerges as the Stablecoin Safehouse

By GEMS Research – Aletheia Capital

  • Singapore has emerged as one of the earliest jurisdictions to establish a comprehensive regulatory regime for fiat-referenced stablecoins.
  • The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has adopted the Single-Currency Stablecoin (SCS) Framework.
  • The adoption is mainly in institutional trials and crypto-native payment flows, but the potential is immense.

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