Category

Daily Briefs

Jun 29
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Gemvax & Kael and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely

KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely

By Sanghyun Park

  • 67 semi names screen into TMI Large-Mid; with stable churn, they’re a solid base for the Sept rebalance. Filter by ADTV and mkt cap to get likely basket.
  • Last year’s Sept rebalance saw wild moves, especially in the week prior, driven by low visibility from the non-public BMI universe, which amped up uncertainty and volatility.
  • This year’s TMI-based rebalance may see more front-loading and smoother flows, but with low market awareness and no playbook yet, chunky moves are still on the table.

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief Industrials: DH Shipbuilding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • DH Shipbuilding IPO Valuation Analysis

DH Shipbuilding IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of DH Shipbuilding IPO is target price of 67,576 won per share, which represents a 35% upside to the high end of the IPO price range.
  • Given the solid upside, we have a Positive view of this IPO. Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a market cap range of 2.3 trillion won to 2.9 trillion won. 
  • Our target valuation multiple of 5.7x is 20% premium to the comps’ P/B valuation multiple which is justified due to the company’s higher ROE, operating margins and stronger balance sheet.

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Innovent Biologics Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) – Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent’s Placement

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) – Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent’s Placement

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies is about to burst as some founders/shareholders have started to reduce their holdings and cash out. We recommend investors to be rational.
  • Domestic innovative drugs market size would be about RMB600 billion by 2035. It is estimated the whole innovative drug industry’s CAGR would be about 15% for the next decade.
  • Innovent announced Placement with the Placing price of HK$78.36/share. However, valuation is clearly at a high level. A more suitable option is to take profits rather than buy.

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm

Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post

By David Blennerhassett

  • Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is a pretty straightforward short term trade. Basically the second largest shareholder, Prakitchaiwattana, got margin called, and shares fell limit down. Twice.
  • South Korean private equity firm VIG Partners tables an Offer for beauty device company VIOL (335890 KS), whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.
  • Melco (200 HK)‘s 11.9% gain on the 26th June – on serious volume – was predicated on a short squeeze, just eight days after the fully-paid rights shares commenced trading.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, PointsBet, New World Resources, SmartPay, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Humm

By David Blennerhassett

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Hang Seng Index, Crizac and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) Top Trades: Recent Option Flow Reveals Strategic Positioning
  • CRIZAC IN: Upcoming IPO – Niche B2B Educational Platform: Should You Subscribe?

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) Top Trades: Recent Option Flow Reveals Strategic Positioning

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Over the past five trading days, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Highlights: Yield-extracting strategies prove more popular in the index than in single stocks. Two such examples, a Ratio Put Spread and an Iron Condor, are presented.
  • Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

CRIZAC IN: Upcoming IPO – Niche B2B Educational Platform: Should You Subscribe?

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Crizac is a play on growth of overseas education. Its network of agents help candidates file University applications, which are then processed by Crizac before passing it to the universities
  • Universities are increasingly outsourcing application and assessment processes to tap inbound students from emerging markets like India/China. 7mn people study abroad today, off which 3+mn are from India and China.
  • IPO is priced attractively at TTM PE of 28x. We estimate FY27 EPS of 11-13 and potential multiple of 30x implying an upside of 35-60% from IPO price of 245

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief Financials: FWD Group Holdings, Krungthai Card and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (29 Jun) – FWD, HDB, Santos, PointsBet, New World, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Jun) – FWD, HDB, Santos, PointsBet, New World, Dickson, HKBN, OneConnect

By Arun George

Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post

By David Blennerhassett

  • Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is a pretty straightforward short term trade. Basically the second largest shareholder, Prakitchaiwattana, got margin called, and shares fell limit down. Twice.
  • South Korean private equity firm VIG Partners tables an Offer for beauty device company VIOL (335890 KS), whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.
  • Melco (200 HK)‘s 11.9% gain on the 26th June – on serious volume – was predicated on a short squeeze, just eight days after the fully-paid rights shares commenced trading.

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: New Hope (NHC AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Statistical Spread Hits Trigger Zone in Aussie Coal Pair and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • New Hope (NHC AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Statistical Spread Hits Trigger Zone in Aussie Coal Pair
  • CRIZAC IN: Upcoming IPO – Niche B2B Educational Platform: Should You Subscribe?

New Hope (NHC AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Statistical Spread Hits Trigger Zone in Aussie Coal Pair

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The New Hope Corp (NHC AU) vs. Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Going long New Hope Corp (NHC AU) and short Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) targets a significant return to the statistical mean reversion level.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

CRIZAC IN: Upcoming IPO – Niche B2B Educational Platform: Should You Subscribe?

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Crizac is a play on growth of overseas education. Its network of agents help candidates file University applications, which are then processed by Crizac before passing it to the universities
  • Universities are increasingly outsourcing application and assessment processes to tap inbound students from emerging markets like India/China. 7mn people study abroad today, off which 3+mn are from India and China.
  • IPO is priced attractively at TTM PE of 28x. We estimate FY27 EPS of 11-13 and potential multiple of 30x implying an upside of 35-60% from IPO price of 245

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Jun 29
0

Most Read: GQG Partners , Amman Mineral Internasional, Greatland Gold, VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA, Thakral Corp, Contact Energy, FWD Group Holdings, BioPharma Credit PLC Fund, Gemvax & Kael, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
  • Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update
  • Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
  • Curator’s Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan
  • Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year
  • Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion
  • FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25 Results: Methodology Change Could Result in a Surprise Addition
  • KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely
  • Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April

S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

By Brian Freitas

  • S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
  • The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
  • We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update

By Brian Freitas

  • The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
  • The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
  • The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

By Brian Freitas

Curator’s Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan

By Pranav Rao

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
  • In this cut, we spotlight building materials corporate actions, gold miners’ benchmark shifts, and semaglutide’s prospects in India and Japan
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year

By Brian Freitas

  • Gemlife (GLF AU) is looking to raise A$750m in a primary offering, valuing the company at A$1.58bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 3 July.
  • The Puljich family and Thakral Corp (THK SP) are escrowed on their shares till mid 2026 at the earliest. 
  • Gemlife (GLF AU) could be added to global indexes in November and December this year, but S&P/ASX 300 Index inclusion could take place only in March 2026.

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

By Brian Freitas

FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
  • Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
  • FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Sep25 Results: Methodology Change Could Result in a Surprise Addition

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
  • We see three M&A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the September 2025 review (one announced later today) and then two more shortly after the rebal event. 
  • Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F250 index during the September 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.

KRX Semicon Index Sep Rebalance — Watch Closely

By Sanghyun Park

  • 67 semi names screen into TMI Large-Mid; with stable churn, they’re a solid base for the Sept rebalance. Filter by ADTV and mkt cap to get likely basket.
  • Last year’s Sept rebalance saw wild moves, especially in the week prior, driven by low visibility from the non-public BMI universe, which amped up uncertainty and volatility.
  • This year’s TMI-based rebalance may see more front-loading and smoother flows, but with low market awareness and no playbook yet, chunky moves are still on the table.

Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Thailand’s rubber export value dips 18.58% MoM in April 2025   
  • Staggering 43.6% fall in Thai rubber imports value to China  
  • Rubber producers can now use trees as collateral for loans  

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Jun 28
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Corporation, Kakaopay , Taekwang Industrial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection
  • Payment Companies – Introducing the Sector Scorecard
  • Taekwang Industrial: Issuing EB Worth 319 Billion Won Based on Its Treasury Shares [Poor Governance]

Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection

By Douglas Kim

  • Minority shareholders of Hanwha Corp preferred shares are demanding better protection (such as converting preferred shares into common shares) and are criticizing the potential delisting of its shares. 
  • We provide four major scenarios that could occur for Hanwha Corp preferred shares (000885 KS) in the coming weeks. 
  • The fact that Hanwha Group companies are on such positive momentum, it would be in the best interest for Hanwha to improve shareholder value of the Hanwha Corp’s preferred shares.

Payment Companies – Introducing the Sector Scorecard

By Victor Galliano

  • We introduce our payments scorecard in this report, in which we apply weightings to our metrics of valuation, margins, EBITDA growth estimates and valuation-to-growth to deliver rankings
  • We keep PagSeguro and Nexi on the buy list, both of these are in the top three in the scorecard; we add PayPal to the buys, replacing the mega-cap Visa
  • We remove our sell rating on Affirm, replacing it with Kakao Pay; Kakao Pay stock has rallied hard on stablecoin speculation, but our concern is that investors under-estimate regulatory risk

Taekwang Industrial: Issuing EB Worth 319 Billion Won Based on Its Treasury Shares [Poor Governance]

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 June, Taekwang Industrial (003240 KS) announced that it is issuing an exchangeable bond (EB) worth 319 billion won based on its treasury shares.
  • Taekwang Industrial announced it will issue EBs with the 271,769 treasury stocks representing 24.41% of the issued shares. This is poor corporate governance and not shareholder friendly. 
  • Going forward, we believe its shares are likely to underperform the market in the next 1-2 years.

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Jun 28
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Krungthai Card, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call
  • Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call

By David Blennerhassett

Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Thailand’s rubber export value dips 18.58% MoM in April 2025   
  • Staggering 43.6% fall in Thai rubber imports value to China  
  • Rubber producers can now use trees as collateral for loans  

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