Daily Briefs

• SilverCape has increased its tender offer price for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) by 2.9% to JPY2,450 and raised the minimum tendering condition to 6.8 million shares (36.61% ownership ratio).
• The SilverCape hostile offer faces twin challenges: preventing completion of the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) offer and gaining the Board’s support/stopping the implementation of countermeasures.
• SilverCape’s revised terms are unlikely to address these challenges. While Hakuhodo may (again) revise its offer, I expect the bump to be marginal (less than 5%). 

• Today late in the afternoon session, the Nikkei reported that the MBO price would be bumped by “about 30%”. The stock popped 4.6%. 
• Post-Close, the deal is bumped from ¥1,960 to ¥2,520 (+29%). Activist holders Murakami Group with 21.4% and Hibiki Path Advisors with 5.5% have agreed to tender. 
• With the two main activists publicly engaged now agreed to tender, this looks like a done deal.

• Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP). 
• SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo’s ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed here).
• Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby nearly ensuring their success. HOWEVER…. SilverCape’s CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But…

• Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has disclosed that the CVC-sponsored MBO price has increased by 28.6% from JPY1,960 to JPY2,520.
• The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its proceeds into the offeror’s parent entity.
• The revised terms are attractive, and this is a done deal. The offer closes on 18 December, with payment from 25 December.

• I see Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) trading around all-time highs – both the implied stub (net of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)) and on a simple ratio (WYNN/1280). 
• Preceding my comments on Wynn are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• In this insight, we discuss about various aspects of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) ‘s H1 FY2026 financial performance. It discusses about divergent performance by region and product.
• Details in this note include why dark clouds are looming over the stock price of this counter and why the valuation multiple could decline.
• Finally, we conclude discuss on valuation and how this will impact the stock price.

• India’s Nifty50 index reached an all-time high yesterday. However, many Indian stocks are near their 52-week lows. Many among them have strong forecast earnings growth, good balance sheets, attractive valuations.
• We screen 17 stocks with double digit forecast EPS growth, PEG < 1.4x, net debt to equity less than 50%. They are spread across construction, chemicals, healthcare, industrials and technology.
• The largest five are Deepak Nitrite (DN IN), Cohance Lifesciences, BASF India Ltd (BASF IN), Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN), Clean Science and Technology (CLEAN IN).

• Context: The Toyota Motor (7203 JP) vs. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Toyota and short Suzuki targets a 7% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Cordelia Cruises, India’s only domestic cruise operator, is going public through an IPO of Rs. 7.27 billion. It plans to triple its fleet by 2028, expanding its passenger capacity significantly.
• The Indian cruise market remains under-penetrated with a CAGR forecast of 35-40% from FY2025-2030, creating a prime opportunity for growth, especially for domestic players like Cordelia.
• The IPO is a crucial step for Cordelia to expand its fleet, cater to increasing demand, and capitalize on the underpenetrated Indian cruise market.

Dentsu Group’s better-than-expected Q325 profit performance, which was driven by Japan, and the phasing of restructuring costs and investment have enabled management to upgrade underlying profit guidance for the year. The regional revenue trends remain consistent with prior quarters, with Japan leading the charge and outperforming management’s expectations, while international markets remain weak with trends quite mixed. Relative to its peers, Dentsu’s organic growth position is broadly in the middle of the pack. Although the upgrade is encouraging, there is uncertainty due to management’s ongoing search for strategic partnerships for its international business and regarding the FY25 dividend.