Daily Briefs

We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 18th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Alcoa.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Anta Sports, Pop Mart, Baba, Trip.Com, HSBC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 17th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Anta Sports, Pop Mart, Baba, Trip.Com, HSBC.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets
New Trading Angle for Korean Market Re-Rating: Flow Gap from English IR Materials
Japan Banks – Net Interest Income, Credit Cost, Trading Gains, All Support Profit
Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today
#137 India Insight: India’s Export Edge, Reliance’s Haier Play, and 2.4x Surge in Quick Orders
Fertilizing Self-Reliance: India’s Fertiliser Industry Set to Double Capacity in 2025-26
Thematic Report: Tariffs, Global Conflicts and Earnings Effect on the Indian Market
Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?
Monday Delight: 28/04/25
[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/MNSO US/601933 CH/1211 HK/1519 HK/Macro Update

Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets

By Sudarshan Bhandari

The Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 25, 2025 caused a brief market correction, with the Nifty 50 falling by 0.86% which was in line with past trends.
Historically, geopolitical shocks like the Kargil War (1999) and Pulwama attack (2019) caused minimal corrections, with the Sensex rebounding by 33% post-Kargil and 400 points in two sessions after 26/11.
The market’s swift recovery, with the Nifty gaining 1.20% on April 28, 2025. Experts project a mild 5-10% correction if tensions escalate, followed by a return to fundamentals.

New Trading Angle for Korean Market Re-Rating: Flow Gap from English IR Materials

The main issue with IFRS 18 is that it counts non-regular items like asset sales or FX gains as operating profit, potentially misleading investors about a company’s actual business performance.
As the Korean market might re-rate, companies with solid English IR materials could attract more global attention, creating trading opportunities, while others might face a significant flow gap.
As Blue Orca’s Soren Aandahl noted, small- and mid-cap stocks, especially those with English IR updates, could drive trading flows as the 2027 IFRS 18 rollout approaches.

Japan Banks – Net Interest Income, Credit Cost, Trading Gains, All Support Profit

By Daniel Tabbush

The story for Japan’s banks is multifaceted with several line items working in tandem to support profit and profit delta
Net interest income strength that we see with MUFG, SMFG, Chiba and SBI Sumishin Net Bank can continue, given outlook on loans and pricing
Delta in credit costs is generally benign, allowing good flow through, with a recurring nature of equity trading gains – a unique feature in Japan banking

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today

By Andrew Jackson

Expect weakness after poor SMCI numbers sends AI related plays lower in late trading including NVDA and DELL.
Qorvo bucking the trend with a better-then-expected outlook despite Apple uncertainty in China.
Sony looking to spin off its semiconductor solutions business a watershed for unlocking shareholder value.

#137 India Insight: India’s Export Edge, Reliance’s Haier Play, and 2.4x Surge in Quick Orders

By Sudarshan Bhandari

As US-China tariffs surge, Indian exporters, particularly in hand tools, electronics, and home appliances, gain a unique opportunity to fulfill US orders, bolstering Indian manufacturing and export growth.
Reliance Industries (RIL IN) acquisition push for Haier India strengthens its electronics sector presence, signaling a strategic move to compete with market leaders and diversify its consumer portfolio amid geopolitical tensions.
Reliance Industries (RIL IN) rapid expansion of dark stores aims to enhance delivery speeds, reinforcing its position in India’s quick commerce sector with sub-30-minute delivery times and no hidden fee.

Fertilizing Self-Reliance: India’s Fertiliser Industry Set to Double Capacity in 2025-26

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Industry to add 1,298 thousand tonnes capacity in 2025-26, doubling previous year’s additions to reduce imports
Production expected to rise 2% in 2025-26, with revival in urea output and continued growth in non-urea segment
Revenues rise after six quarters of decline; operating profit surged 55.8% with margin expansion to 7% in Q3 2024-25

Thematic Report: Tariffs, Global Conflicts and Earnings Effect on the Indian Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

The market rebound reflects optimism regarding global growth and domestic earnings, despite high uncertainty around global GDP, tariffs, and the US dollar.
There is increased uncertainty in global markets due to the shifting economic order. Indian exports, especially in automobiles and IT services, may face long-term risks from higher tariffs
The outlook for sectors like automobiles, IT services, and consumer consumption needs to be revised due to global trade tensions and weakened demand.

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI’s ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.
JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN) expects surge in PAT upto 700%.

Monday Delight: 28/04/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention.
These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/MNSO US/601933 CH/1211 HK/1519 HK/Macro Update

By Eric Wen

Macro Update: NDRC Reiterates Incremental Policies Are in Preparation (+)
LI US: Li Auto Announces Free Charging and Road Rescue Services for May Holiday(-)
MNSO US/601933 CH:Yonghui Superstores 1Q25 Revenue and Net Profit Decline 19% and 80% YoY(-/-)

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Apr 30

Daily Brief ECM: Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity
Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago
Sichuan Biokin A/H Listing: Good Time for Listing
Eco-Shop IPO: Peers Have Shined Through Turmoil, Eco Still Cheaper
Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation
Golden Sovereign Mines
PegBio 派格生物 Pre-IPO: R&D Deceleration
American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.

Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago

By Sumeet Singh

Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH) plans to raise up to US$234m via its A/H listing.
HDNET is a specialized manufacturer of PV cells which are used in making PV modules.
In this note, we look at the company’s recent performance and other deal dynamics, as well as valuations.

Sichuan Biokin A/H Listing: Good Time for Listing

Sichuan Biokin reported 2024 results, with a large chunk of revenue from its product licensing to BMS.
We analyzed its key products’ current clinical trials and upcoming milestones. We also look at peer performance.
Overall, we are of the view that many factors bode well for Biokin’s H-share listing

Eco-Shop IPO: Peers Have Shined Through Turmoil, Eco Still Cheaper

By Nicholas Tan

Eco-Shop Marketing (ECO MY) is looking to raise up to US$241m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.
It is the largest dollar chain in Malaysia, as per the number of stores it operates, as of 31 October 2024.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it.
The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.
The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation

By IPO Boutique

A total of 11.0mm shares are being offered with the entirety being offloaded by the sponsor, Apollo Global Securities.
This company was acquired by private-equity titan Apollo Global in a transaction announced in August 2018 and closing in February 2019.
For the three months ended March 31, 2025, Aspen Insurance had gross written premiums of $1.287b vs. $1.231b in the same period in 2024 for an increase of 4.5%.

Golden Sovereign Mines

By Optimo Capital

Golden Sovereign Mines (GSM) is a pre-IPO opportunity to invest in a gold consolidation vehicle focused on the toll treatment of ore, mined by African artisanal miners.
The company is adopting a proven business model that has been well-tested in Africa.
The rollout of GSM’s strategy is well-timed as many African nations are creating national action plans to transform the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) gold sector.

PegBio 派格生物 Pre-IPO: R&D Deceleration

PegBio is looking at raising up to USD 100m to list in Hong Kong.
We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and a brief valuation.
We also took a look at changes to its prospectus. The company filed an updated version. We are taking a close look.

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII US) was one of two insurance companies to set terms for an IPO on Tuesday morning for a debut next week.
Gross premiums written increased 43.9% to $212.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $147.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.
The underwriting lineup on this sector, led by Keefe Bruyette & Woods, has a strong track record of pricing and placing transactions in this sector.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Nickel Industries
The US equity market rebounded overnight to erase earlier losses in the day. The S&P 500 was up for a fifth straight day (its longest streak since November 2024), albeit at just 0.1%.
In the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index plunged to negative 35.8 (-14.1 e / -16.3 p) in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020. The survey showed executives describing the situation as “chaos” and “insanity”.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)
Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look
Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)
Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom
United Microelectronics: Heavy Exodus
Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Assuringly Diverse Protein Provider
ICBC: Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning
Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech
Asia Real Estate Tracker (29-Apr-2025): Link Points Tokyo expansion with Nuveen executive hire
[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

By Nicolas Baratte

Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage. Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks – 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists – mostly from Japanese property.

Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

By Nicolas Baratte

China was ahead of the US in AI semiconductor and applications in 2015-20. Huawei had a complete AI processor and software platform. Losing access to TSMC froze Huawei’s progress.
Most likely, Huawei new AI processor Ascend 910C is made by SMIC on 6nm. Power Efficiency of Ascend 910C is poor versus the latest Nvidia GPU, but similar to N-2.
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) 7-6nm and access to HBM memory are major limiting factor to the chip volumes and performance.

Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has dropped to the bottom of its 10-year range.
The percentage of global funds invested has fallen from 32.6% to 23.5% over the past 12-months.
Key Growth investors from Schroders to Templeton exit the stock, leaving an investor base largely comprised of Value oriented funds.

United Microelectronics: Heavy Exodus

Collapse in EM fund positioning as ownership levels approach record lows.
Over the past six months, there has been a heavy sell-side bias, with Fisher, BNP, and Quilter among those exiting the stock.
UMC falls to the 13th most widely owned company in the Semiconductor sector.

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Assuringly Diverse Protein Provider

By Angus Mackintosh

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) booked a strong start to the year, with sales growing +12% YoY, but dairy was down while premium foods drove higher revenues.
The company continues to drive growth through general trade and Miss Cimory, with plans to continue increasing its reach through more affordable products in both dairy and premium consumer foods.
Cisarua Mountain Dairy‘s strategy to shift the emphasis toward home consumption for consumer foods and an increasing emphasis on affordable products will help to underpin long-term sustainable growth. Valuations attractive.

ICBC: Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning

Consistent declines in fund ownership in ICBC finally hit a floor.
Over the past six-months, 8 new positions — led by Goldman Sachs and Heptagon — have outpaced 3 closures, with 29 buyers versus 18 sellers.
ICBC is the 6th most widely owned stock in the China & HK Financials sector, ahead of Bank Of China Ltd but behind China Merchants and China Construction Bank.

Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

By Rahul Jain

FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (29-Apr-2025): Link Points Tokyo expansion with Nuveen executive hire

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Link has appointed a former Nuveen executive to lead its expansion into Japan, signaling the company’s commitment to growing its presence in the region.
Amara Chairman is spearheading a $392 million bid to privatize a Singapore hotel group, demonstrating a growing trend of investments in the hospitality industry.
ANREV reports a significant decline of over 50% in global real estate capital raising from its peak in 2022, highlighting challenges in the current market environment.

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

By Suhas Reddy

BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash
Fujitsu General (6755) – Deal Starts Early, Trades Tight – Done Deal
Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): 23rd May Vote On Founder’s Offer
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions
Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean
Fonterra (FCG NZ)’s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles
Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer
A Wealth of Moves: Mediobanca Bets on Banca Generali Strength to Outflank BMPS

Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better

Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share.
The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable

On the 26th Feb 2025, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi (2121 JP) at A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
PointsBet rebuffed key (smaller) rival Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s (previously known as BlueBet) ostensibly higher non-binding cash/scrip; and refuted Betr’s claim that it’s Offer was fully funded.
Betr has returned with, what appears to be, an all cash offer of A$1.20/share, fully-funded/underwritten. Betr’s Offer still requires confirmatory due diligence. Importantly, Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash

By Arun George

Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) disclosed a Bermuda scheme offer from the controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) at HK$7.20, a 50.6% premium to the last close price.
The offer is final. While the offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below net cash.
No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and retail seems supportive (lowering the risk of the headcount test). The offer, while light, will likely succeed.

Fujitsu General (6755) – Deal Starts Early, Trades Tight – Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

The Paloma-Rheem Tender Offer for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) was expected to start in early July but is starting 10 weeks earlier. Big win for arbs.
This was going to be a done deal. It didn’t trade rich to terms and it’s tough to see why activists would push when they haven’t pushed for years.
The deal is now trading tight. Long arbs should probably re-allocate. Those hiding their beta here should hide their beta elsewhere.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): 23rd May Vote On Founder’s Offer

On the 7th March, small-cap property developer Soundwill (878 HK) announced an Offer from Grace Foo (ED) and her family, controlling 74.97% of shares out, by way of a Scheme.
The Offer Price of $8.50/share, including a $1.00/share dividend, was a 62.84% premium to undisturbed. But a 87.66% discount to the (then) most recent NAV. Terms were final.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 23rd May, and payment on or before the 11th June. The IFA (Altus Capital) says “fair & reasonable”.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions

By Arun George

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has returned with a non-binding proposal for PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), which it claims is worth A$1.20 to A$1.50+ per PBH share.
Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s A$1.06 scheme offer. Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation.
Betr has secured over A$260 million in cash funding. Mixi can either let the scheme fail or switch to an off-market takeover offer.

Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean

By Douglas Kim

Korea Development Bank (KDB) is capitalizing on the huge share price appreciation of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) to sell some of its stake in the company through block deal sales.
KDB plans to sell its 19.5% stake in Hanwha Ocean. However, the initial block deal sale will be for about 13 million shares (4.3% of outstanding shares).
Hanwha Ocean’s lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares, this could cause further overhang on its shares over the next 3-6 months.

Fonterra (FCG NZ)’s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles

On the 16th May 2024, dairy co-operative Fonterra (FCG NZ) announced a possible partial/full divestment of its global Consumer business, in addition to its Oceania and Sri Lanka integrated businesses.
Last November, Fonterra said it would proceed with the sale process of these business, via a trade dale or IPO. Market valuations were upward of NZ$4bn for the “Mainland Group”.
However, the spin-off hit a snag after a NSW court ruled Fonterra may need to renegotiate a long-term branding agreement with Bega Cheese (BGA AU) should the divestment proceed.

Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Sidara’s proposal, Board support, and advanced due diligence underpin a credible path to deal completion, despite market volatility and suspension risks temporarily depressing Wood Group’s trading price.
Investors entering at distressed levels around 17.89p enjoy a highly favorable risk-reward skew, with potential upside of 95% against manageable downside risks if the transaction ultimately collapses.
Existing holders at 26.1p face a more binary outcome, but strategic intent, historical precedents, and Sidara’s prior investment case suggest maintaining exposure through the critical May 15 decision point.

A Wealth of Moves: Mediobanca Bets on Banca Generali Strength to Outflank BMPS

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Mediobanca’s €6.3bn all-share offer for Banca Generali transforms its strategic profile, shifting focus to wealth management while creating a strong industrial partnership with Generali through a stake divestment.
The deal offers a 4.6% gross spread and an estimated 9.4% annualized return over a six-month timeline, underpinned by €660 million synergies that exceed the acquisition premium.
Shareholder approval remains uncertain due to opposition from major investors Delfin and Caltagirone, making institutional support critical as Mediobanca fends off BMPS’s competing, state-aligned hostile bid.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Macro: EA: Easing Stagflationary Noise and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

EA: Easing Stagflationary Noise
US Bear Market: THE TIDE GOES OUT BEFORE THE TSUNAMI HITS THE SHORE!
Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder
Sentiment Signal in Gold
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
Water Wars: India’s Economic Trump Card in Kashmir Crisis
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand
Brazil Financials: Losing Ground Amid Global Financials Rotation
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

EA: Easing Stagflationary Noise

By Phil Rush

Hard economic data must match gloomy sentiment to justify ECB rate cuts reaching a stimulative setting. The little evidence available so far doesn’t show much of a shock.
Bank lending growth kept rising for companies and households in March as monetary conditions appear to be loosening, not tightening, due to the initial tariff shock.
Activity surveys only softened slightly in services, while inflation expectations are broadly high. Failure to see much more stagflation eases the likelihood that it occurs.

US Bear Market: THE TIDE GOES OUT BEFORE THE TSUNAMI HITS THE SHORE!

By David Mudd

It is the calm before the storm as US markets move up in a bear market rally.
China/US container ship sailings are at a standstill. Tariff effects will start to be felt in US retailers within weeks. Temu and Shein pass tariffs costs to the US consumer.
According to a Deutsche Bank report, foreign buyers of US assets are pulling back quickly. The virtuous cycle turns into a vicious spiral.

Proliferating Political Risks A Feature, Not A Bug, Of The New World Disorder

By Manu Bhaskaran

The past weeks have seen multiple geopolitical flashpoints emerge in Asia as various state and non-state actors take increasingly brazen steps to pursue their respective agendas.
The aftermath of the Kashmir terrorist attack has seen New Delhi and Islamabad ramp up retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Beijing is seizing Sandy Clay and intensifying coercive tactics against Taiwan.
An inward-looking Washington and an unready China mean that there are no “adults in the room” who can moderate geopolitical risks, making such flashpoints more dangerous.

Sentiment Signal in Gold

By The Commodity Report

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.

Water Wars: India’s Economic Trump Card in Kashmir Crisis

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

A limited conflict in Kashmir would have minimal economic impact, as the region is a small part of both economies.
India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty poses a bigger threat to Pakistan’s agriculture and water supply.
India may seek to isolate Pakistan internationally, possibly affecting Pakistan’s IMF bailout and global support.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand

By Pranay Yadav

PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist.
China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.
Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.

Brazil Financials: Losing Ground Amid Global Financials Rotation

Rotation is underway in the EM Financial sector, with selling in Brazil Financials funding rotation in to Greece, UAE and Argentinian financials.
Brazil Financials remain an overweight for the majority of EM funds, but conviction is falling, with selling in key names Banco Bradesco and Banco BTG Pactual.
Itau Unibanco Holding remains the flagship holding, owned by 43.7% of funds, though remains well below its 2010 ownership peak.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

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Apr 30

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Laopu Gold, Hanwha Ocean , Toyota Motor, Horizon Robotics, Hanwha Aerospace, Dickson Concepts Intl, PointsBet Holdings , Samsung SDI and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing
Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable
Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

By Travis Lundy

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV.
Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

KDB sells 4.3% of total shares, offloading about one fifth of its holdings. The price range was 81,265–81,710 won, at an 8.51–9.00% discount, totaling 1.056–1.062 trillion won.
With more float and passive buying (KOSPI 200) potential, plus shipbuilding momentum, the stock’s pullback likely won’t exceed today’s discount — it might be worth taking a swing.
There’s buzz KDB might sell its HMM stake through block trades, like Hanwha Ocean. However, with HMM’s cash reserves, a tender offer seems more likely to drive stock action instead.

Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors

By Nico Rosti

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
Bloomberg reported Friday that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring Toyota Industries (6201 JP) in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.
The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better

Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share.
The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable

On the 26th Feb 2025, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi (2121 JP) at A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
PointsBet rebuffed key (smaller) rival Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s (previously known as BlueBet) ostensibly higher non-binding cash/scrip; and refuted Betr’s claim that it’s Offer was fully funded.
Betr has returned with, what appears to be, an all cash offer of A$1.20/share, fully-funded/underwritten. Betr’s Offer still requires confirmatory due diligence. Importantly, Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake.

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung SDI, Hanwha Ocean , Samsung Electronics, Krafton , S Oil Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity
Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean
Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom
Krafton: Acquisition of Controlling Stake in Neptune from Kakao Games
S-Oil: Q1 Base Oils Profit Falls

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.

Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean

By Douglas Kim

Korea Development Bank (KDB) is capitalizing on the huge share price appreciation of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) to sell some of its stake in the company through block deal sales.
KDB plans to sell its 19.5% stake in Hanwha Ocean. However, the initial block deal sale will be for about 13 million shares (4.3% of outstanding shares).
Hanwha Ocean’s lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares, this could cause further overhang on its shares over the next 3-6 months.

Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has dropped to the bottom of its 10-year range.
The percentage of global funds invested has fallen from 32.6% to 23.5% over the past 12-months.
Key Growth investors from Schroders to Templeton exit the stock, leaving an investor base largely comprised of Value oriented funds.

Krafton: Acquisition of Controlling Stake in Neptune from Kakao Games

By Douglas Kim

On 29 April, Krafton announced that it plans to acquire a 39.37% controlling stake in Neptune Company from Kakao Games for 165 billion won ($114.9 million).
Prior to this deal, Krafton owned a 3.2% stake in Neptune. After this deal is completed, Krafton will own a 42.53% stake (19.86 million shares) of Neptune.
Krafton reported excellent results in 1Q 2025. The company beat its sales, operating profit, and net profit by 10.1%, 18.3%, and 13.8%, respectively in 1Q 2025.

S-Oil: Q1 Base Oils Profit Falls

By Iain Pocock

Base oils unit’s Q1 profit falls to lowest in more than four years
Profit margin slides as Group III prices slump faster than feedstock costs
Base oil unit’s Q1 profit contrasts with loss for refining and petchem units

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Australia: PointsBet Holdings , Iron Ore, Novonix and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions
[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand
NVX: CEO Transition Expected to be Smooth

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable