Category

Daily Briefs

Apr 21
0

Daily Brief ECM: Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook
  • Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.
  • If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.
  • If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.

Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

By Daniel Hellberg

  • FY24 revenue growth of 19% solid, but mostly driven by one operating segment
  • Gross margin in FY24 fell on mix, but platform monetization down, too
  • Sharp growth in FY24 working capital requires investors’ close attention

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage
  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Rally as Trade Tensions Ease and Hopes Rise for Bilateral Deal
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Federal Reserve will feature prominently this week, with speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials amid rising political pressure from President Trump.
  • The market is set for significant swings as key earnings announcements from major companies expected. FANUC, Nidec, and KEYENCE will announce their fiscal year 2025 results
  • Nintendo will start accepting reservations for its new Switch 2 game console in the US on the 24th, after postponing from the 9th to assess the impact of tariffs.

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Rally as Trade Tensions Ease and Hopes Rise for Bilateral Deal

By Mark Chadwick

  • The stock market ended on a strong note, with both the Nikkei 225 (+3.4%) and the  Topix (+3.7%) indices posting substantial weekly gains amid ongoing U.S.-Japan trade negotiations
  • Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa’s meeting with President Trump on Thursday proved pivotal, with Trump reportedly identifying a deal with Japan as a “top priority.”
  • Auto stocks posted impressive gains Tuesday after reports that Trump was considering pausing his 25% levies on auto imports, with Mazda (+8%) leading the sector for the week.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS
  • DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)
  • Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO
  • Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility
  • Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)
  • Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth
  • Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025

What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia. 
  • U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&D competitors will struggle to match. 
  • Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 16.5% Premium; Short Interest Remains Near Historical Highs for ADR and Local
  • ASE: +2.2% Premium; Wait for Closer to Par Before Going Long; Short Interest in Local Shares at Highs
  • ChipMOS: +1.1% Premium; Short Interest in Local Shares Hits New Highs

DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive

By Nicolas Baratte

  • DISCO Mar-25 results beat Consensus by ~12%. Jun-25 guidance is very weak but DISCO always under-guides egregiously. But it’s weak.
  • Consensus has revised down its Jun-25 revenue forecast from 12% YoY growth to 6% but left Sept-Dec-25 unchanged at ~10% YoY growth. The odds are that Consensus is too high.
  • The stock is down -39% since end Dec-24 but still trading at 20x EPS in the face of downside risks to Consensus. Not appealing.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging. 
  • AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds. 
  • Faraday and UMC results ahead this week — Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative
  • We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data — not surprising
  • New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust

Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO

By J Capital Research

  • American Data Centers, after a one-month stint as a joint venture between bush league broker Dominari Holdings (NASDAQ: DOMH) and Eric and Donald Trump Jr., is now becoming a bitcoin miner and hoping for a Nasdaq IPO.
  • ADC is doing this in tandem with a public company that already failed at mining. We strongly doubt that either ADC, in its shape shift to miner, or its public sponsor will be a good bet for investors. 
  • On March 31, 2025, Eric Trump announced plans for a joint venture bitcoin mining company with Hut 8 Corp (NASDAQ: HUT).

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

By Rahul Jain

  • NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
  • FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
  • Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

By Patrick Liao

  • After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
  • Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
  • Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?  

Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

By Michael Causton

  • Aeon will turn Aeon Mall and its facilities management business, Aeon Delight, into subsidiaries.
  • The move is part of plans to rationalise and inject new momentum into its shopping building business, including new types of neighbourhood mall.
  • It will also use Aeon Mall’s overseas network to scout for promising tenants for its malls and GMS stores.

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025

By Sameer Taneja

  • We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
  • We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% year-over-year, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
  • We add ICTSI (ICT PM)  and Asian Terminals (ATI PM) to our Philippines high-conviction list, which we will be initiating coverage on shortly. 

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: *NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • *NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
  • Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
  • Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025):  AH Premia Fall in Low Volume
  • Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

*NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance

By Travis Lundy

  • Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
  • In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs). 
  • Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

  • Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
  • Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
  • The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon

By Arun George

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025):  AH Premia Fall in Low Volume

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia fall small. Spread curve torsion is mild but present, with narrow AH Premia widening, and wide premia narrowing.
  • For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. I think the trend is still to widening but torsion. 
  • The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from wider spreads coming in, narrow spreads widening, and liquidity dropping.

Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia

By Arun George

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.
  • Gross and net flows this week subsided quite substantially compared to previous weeks. 
  • We are in a post-tariff breather as the US says the ball is in China’s court and China looks like it will wait things out. Port volumes are telling.

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Macro: Populism Meets Productivity: The Economic Roadmap of Trump’s Second Term and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Populism Meets Productivity: The Economic Roadmap of Trump’s Second Term
  • Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns
  • The 60/40 in an Era of American Unexceptionalism
  • Complex Anatomy of the Tariff Crisis Presents Financial Markets With Multiple Permutations
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

Populism Meets Productivity: The Economic Roadmap of Trump’s Second Term

By Albert Maass

  • Trump’s economic agenda faces structural realities in manufacturing, immigration, and energy that challenge populist solutions and require targeted approaches.
  • Successful policy implementation demands balancing protectionist promises with market dynamics through strategic industrial policy and graduated enforcement.
  • A pragmatic roadmap includes sector-specific interventions, workforce development, and new success metrics beyond traditional economic indicators.

Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns

By Cam Hui

  • Trump’s main objective in his trade war is to erect a trade wall around China, but it’s unclear how successful he will be as his allies are wavering.
  • The U.S. economy is weakening. At a minimum, the markets will undergo a growth scare, though an actual recession isn’t a certainty.
  • The challenge in the long term is the continuation of American Exceptionalism, consisting of long U.S. market leadership, long multi-nationals and a buy-the-dip mentality

The 60/40 in an Era of American Unexceptionalism

By Cam Hui

  • Markets are increasingly concerned about the USD and Treasury assets as a safe haven.
  • Investors can consider diversifying into a basket of non-U.S. sovereign bonds, but at the price of a lower coupon rate and a history of underperformance.
  • The current combination of technical, sentiment and fundamental conditions indicate the stock market is ripe for a short-term relief rally, with a substantial risk of a much deeper downdraft.

Complex Anatomy of the Tariff Crisis Presents Financial Markets With Multiple Permutations

By Said Desaque

  • US financial markets are currently in the aftershocks phase that always follows a crisis triggering event. Markets are often divorced from reality during these periods and pricing becomes irrational.   
  • Tariffs will negatively affect US economic growth, but the long-term impact depends on corporations’ capital allocation response to a new trading environment. Future distribution of national income will become important.
  • Tariffs will adversely impact the equity risk premium, while Fed policy conduct will also play a role. Corporate profit expectations for 2025 have been lowered. Long-term growth estimates remain intact.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.
  • Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.
  • Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief India: Zomato, Swiggy, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
  • Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025
  • Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

  • Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
  • Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
  • The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.
  • Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.
  • Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

By Rahul Jain

  • NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
  • FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
  • Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief United States: Chagee Holdings, Intel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook
  • Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.
  • If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.
  • If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

By Patrick Liao

  • After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
  • Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
  • Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?  

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Japan: Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, Shibaura Electronics, DISCO Corp, Aeon Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • *NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
  • Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia
  • DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive
  • Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

*NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance

By Travis Lundy

  • Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
  • In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs). 
  • Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.

Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia

By Arun George

DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive

By Nicolas Baratte

  • DISCO Mar-25 results beat Consensus by ~12%. Jun-25 guidance is very weak but DISCO always under-guides egregiously. But it’s weak.
  • Consensus has revised down its Jun-25 revenue forecast from 12% YoY growth to 6% but left Sept-Dec-25 unchanged at ~10% YoY growth. The odds are that Consensus is too high.
  • The stock is down -39% since end Dec-24 but still trading at 20x EPS in the face of downside risks to Consensus. Not appealing.

Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

By Michael Causton

  • Aeon will turn Aeon Mall and its facilities management business, Aeon Delight, into subsidiaries.
  • The move is part of plans to rationalise and inject new momentum into its shopping building business, including new types of neighbourhood mall.
  • It will also use Aeon Mall’s overseas network to scout for promising tenants for its malls and GMS stores.

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief China: Suzhou Kematek, ENN Energy, Guolian Securities Co Ltd H, Alibaba Group Holding , Hang Seng Index, Iron Ore, Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
  • Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025):  AH Premia Fall in Low Volume
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold
  • HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist
  • Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions
  • HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Key Strike Rejected, Volatility Recalibrates

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
  • We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
  • There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon

By Arun George

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025):  AH Premia Fall in Low Volume

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia fall small. Spread curve torsion is mild but present, with narrow AH Premia widening, and wide premia narrowing.
  • For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. I think the trend is still to widening but torsion. 
  • The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from wider spreads coming in, narrow spreads widening, and liquidity dropping.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.
  • Gross and net flows this week subsided quite substantially compared to previous weeks. 
  • We are in a post-tariff breather as the US says the ball is in China’s court and China looks like it will wait things out. Port volumes are telling.

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

By John Ley

  • A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
  • The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.
  • Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.
  • Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.
  • Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).

Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

By Daniel Hellberg

  • FY24 revenue growth of 19% solid, but mostly driven by one operating segment
  • Gross margin in FY24 fell on mix, but platform monetization down, too
  • Sharp growth in FY24 working capital requires investors’ close attention

HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Key Strike Rejected, Volatility Recalibrates

By John Ley

  • A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
  • Volatility pulled back but may have simply entered a holding pattern—parallels to stimulus induced rise and fall are explored.
  • Volumes dropped sharply from last week’s Call induced surge, as the market approached—but failed to clear—a key strike.

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Utilities: ENN Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon

By Arun George

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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