Daily Briefs

Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs).
Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

By Rahul Jain

NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)

For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative
We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data — not surprising
New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust

Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

FY24 revenue growth of 19% solid, but mostly driven by one operating segment
Gross margin in FY24 fell on mix, but platform monetization down, too
Sharp growth in FY24 working capital requires investors’ close attention

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Apr 21

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Shibaura Electronics, DISCO Corp, Swiggy, Hang Seng Index, Intel Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)
Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia
DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025
Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data
HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold
Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC’s Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia.
U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&D competitors will struggle to match.
Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.

Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) lock-up expiry; DN Solutions (298440 KS) and LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPOS.
Event-Driven developments: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Topcon Corp (7732 JP), Jamco Corp (7408 JP), TRYT (9164 JP), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK).

DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive

By Nicolas Baratte

DISCO Mar-25 results beat Consensus by ~12%. Jun-25 guidance is very weak but DISCO always under-guides egregiously. But it’s weak.
Consensus has revised down its Jun-25 revenue forecast from 12% YoY growth to 6% but left Sept-Dec-25 unchanged at ~10% YoY growth. The odds are that Consensus is too high.
The stock is down -39% since end Dec-24 but still trading at 20x EPS in the face of downside risks to Consensus. Not appealing.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: 16.5% Premium; Short Interest Remains Near Historical Highs for ADR and Local
ASE: +2.2% Premium; Wait for Closer to Par Before Going Long; Short Interest in Local Shares at Highs
ChipMOS: +1.1% Premium; Short Interest in Local Shares Hits New Highs

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging.
AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds.
Faraday and UMC results ahead this week — Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.

HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

By John Ley

A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.
Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

By Patrick Liao

After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?

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Apr 21

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Suzhou Kematek, Iron Ore and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.
Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).

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Apr 21

Daily Brief Industrials: Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Evergreen Marine Corp, Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

*NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)
Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

NEW USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance

Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs).
Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.

Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility

By Rahul Jain

NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)

For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative
We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data — not surprising
New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust

Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

FY24 revenue growth of 19% solid, but mostly driven by one operating segment
Gross margin in FY24 fell on mix, but platform monetization down, too
Sharp growth in FY24 working capital requires investors’ close attention

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Apr 21

Daily Brief Consumer: Zomato, Alibaba Group Holding , Chagee Holdings, Aeon Co Ltd, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold
Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook
Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth
HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Key Strike Rejected, Volatility Recalibrates

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.
Gross and net flows this week subsided quite substantially compared to previous weeks.
We are in a post-tariff breather as the US says the ball is in China’s court and China looks like it will wait things out. Port volumes are telling.

Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.
If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.
If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.

Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

By Michael Causton

Aeon will turn Aeon Mall and its facilities management business, Aeon Delight, into subsidiaries.
The move is part of plans to rationalise and inject new momentum into its shopping building business, including new types of neighbourhood mall.
It will also use Aeon Mall’s overseas network to scout for promising tenants for its malls and GMS stores.

HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Key Strike Rejected, Volatility Recalibrates

By John Ley

A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
Volatility pulled back but may have simply entered a holding pattern—parallels to stimulus induced rise and fall are explored.
Volumes dropped sharply from last week’s Call induced surge, as the market approached—but failed to clear—a key strike.

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Apr 21

Daily Brief Financials: Guolian Securities Co Ltd H, Hut 8 Mining, Philippine Stock Exchange and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025): AH Premia Fall in Low Volume
Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO
Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025): AH Premia Fall in Low Volume

AH Premia fall small. Spread curve torsion is mild but present, with narrow AH Premia widening, and wide premia narrowing.
For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. I think the trend is still to widening but torsion.
The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from wider spreads coming in, narrow spreads widening, and liquidity dropping.

Art of the Deal : Value Destruction for a Listed Company, and a Weak Coming IPO

By J Capital Research

American Data Centers, after a one-month stint as a joint venture between bush league broker Dominari Holdings (NASDAQ: DOMH) and Eric and Donald Trump Jr., is now becoming a bitcoin miner and hoping for a Nasdaq IPO.
ADC is doing this in tandem with a public company that already failed at mining. We strongly doubt that either ADC, in its shape shift to miner, or its public sponsor will be a good bet for investors.
On March 31, 2025, Eric Trump announced plans for a joint venture bitcoin mining company with Hut 8 Corp (NASDAQ: HUT).

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – April 2025

By Sameer Taneja

We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% year-over-year, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
We add ICTSI (ICT PM) and Asian Terminals (ATI PM) to our Philippines high-conviction list, which we will be initiating coverage on shortly.

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Apr 21

Most Read: PDD Holdings, Northern Star Resources, Makino Milling Machine Co, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, NIFTY Index, TRYT , Zomato, Suzhou Kematek and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings
TSMC. Full Steam Ahead Despite Tariff Threats & China Bans. For Now.
*NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls
Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK).
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows.
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.

Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) bid ¥11,000 for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April.
A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in “legally binding bids.” No news on those yet, but we have a month.
Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec’s bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .

TSMC. Full Steam Ahead Despite Tariff Threats & China Bans. For Now.

By William Keating

TSMC offered a surprisingly robust outlook for the current quarter with revenues expected to rise 13% QoQ to $28.8 billion at the midpoint, their highest ever quarterly revenue.
No change to the previous full year 2025 guidance of mid-20% growth in US$ terms
It’s likely too early to see the full impact of tariffs and further China restrictions in TSMC’s outlook, but the second half will likely be a different story

NEW USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance

Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs).
Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti

The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

Tryt (9164 JP): Take Profits as Takeover Speculation Swirls

By Arun George

TRYT (9164 JP) shares were up 38.5% over the last two days based on a report that EQT, the controlling shareholder, had made progress in identifying bidders for its stake.
The exploration of the privatisation process is unsurprising, as Tryt was pre-rumour trading 69% below its JPY1,200 IPO price.
The upside is limited, as the last close already reflects a significant takeover premium, and a binding proposal that satisfies EQT’s price aspirations will be challenging.

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks