Daily Briefs

• ADR odds are tiny. Both Samsung and Hynix have thin control stakes, making governance risk too high. Neither is willing to chase a valuation pop at the expense of stability.
• Still can’t ignore it, since the ADR chatter is meaningfully swinging the pair trades. Samsung pref spread and Hynix/Square are both getting pushed around.
• ADR noise cooled today, but it can easily resurface and skew the setup. Treat as noise, but be ready to hit aggressive reversion trades when it pops again.

• Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)’s pre-conditional tender offer from MBK Partners is at JPY11,751 per share. The gross spread has increased to 9.9% due to several concerns.
• The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the precondition, the fallout from the Homeplus saga and breaching the long stop date (16 January 2026).
• While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable as the upside (9.9% spread) exceeds the downside (6.3% to my estimated deal break price). 

• ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)‘s Offer, by way of a Scheme from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, in tandem with Temasek, has displayed some unique (unusual?) firsts. 
• There is the 9%+ stake held by CDH – another pre-IPO investor – a shareholder that fails to appear in subsequent annual/interim reports; or even Hong Kong disclosure announcements.
• Then late last week, the Offeror opted not to raise the cap on the scrip option alternative, despite shareholders expressing interest. 

• Okuma Corp (6103 JP) today announced a secondary offering of 5.0mm shares (including greenshoe) from a relatively large number of financial crossholders. 
• That takes out about a third of them and not quite a quarter of the crossholders. There’s more to go. And the register remains “blocked”. 
• It looks headed to retail but this stock is very low volatility and is likely to remain that way. A large buyback to start in January offsets the overhang here.

• Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, MUFG and others are looking to sell around US$104m of Okuma Corp (6103 JP) stock.
• This is a slightly large deal to digest, representing 13.2 days of three month ADV and 6.4% of outstanding stock.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Worthington’s due diligence introduces a credible takeout path, with Kloeckner trading on event probability rather than fundamentals. Concentrated ownership means pricing must satisfy the 41% anchor shareholder to advance discussions.
• Standalone equity value sits near €7.05 per share once full balance-sheet obligations are incorporated. Identifiable synergies of €60–85m annually support a realistic takeover corridor of €8.25–9.78 per share.
• Worthington has ample balance-sheet capacity to fund the acquisition. Pro forma leverage of 2.7–3.2× under a standard mixed-financing structure is comfortably financeable, making the transaction large but feasible.

• CiDi Inc. is a high-growth, market-leading provider of autonomous driving solutions for commercial vehicles in China, with a dominant position in the niche but rapidly expanding autonomous mining truck sector.
• The company has demonstrated explosive revenue growth, driven by its core autonomous driving segment. However, this growth is accompanied by significant operating losses, negative cash flow, and worsening liquidity, making its upcoming Hong Kong IPO critical for funding future operations and expansion.
• Key risks for investors include high customer and supplier concentration, intense competition in the autonomous vehicle space, and execution risk associated with its ambitious international expansion plans.

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• In June 2025, Beijing Geekplus completed an initial public offering at fixed IPO offer price of HK$16.80, raising ~HK$2.8B of net proceeds in Hong Kong.
• A Beijing-based AMRs company announced interim results for the six months ended Jun-25 and posted strong revenue growth of ~31% y/y coupled with improving profitability. 
• The stock peaked at HK$33.90 (~14x FY25 P/S) in October and fell ~38% over the next month. The company’s cornerstone lockup will expire on January 8, 2026.

• Makino is a globally recognized manufacturer of high-precision, high-quality metal-cutting and electrical discharge machines (EDM), serving demanding industries like aerospace, automotive, and medical.
• The company is currently a subject of M&A speculation, with a tender offer from MBK Partners on the table after a hostile bid from Nidec was withdrawn, creating potential for further bids and stock volatility.
• Financially, Makino has demonstrated revenue growth, but profitability and free cash flow have been inconsistent, reflecting the cyclical nature of the machine tool industry and recent supply chain pressures.

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• Ashok Leyland (AL IN) enters 2026 with strong momentum. This insight discusses the various factors that benefit the company and what will drive the margins ahead.
• Also discussed in this note are details about company’s R&D initiatives to reduce cyclicality and strengthen earnings quality. 
• Finally, we discuss about valuation and the potential upside from its core business and soon to be listed – Hinduja Leyland Finance.