Category

Daily Briefs

Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Credit: Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen

Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen

By Leandro Gubler

  • We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.
  • Suzano posted strong 4Q24 results. Supported by the Pulp segment outperforming despite pricing headwinds. EBITDA reached R$6.5 billion, down a modest 0.6% QoQ but 5.3% above expectations
  • From a credit perspective. Suzano’s results showed improved LTM EBITDA and positive net free cash flow, but net leverage rose slightly to 3.3x due to FX-driven debt increases.

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Feb 15
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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Cloudflare Inc.: Can Its Enhanced Utilization in AI and Agents Help Catalyze Top-Line Growth? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Cloudflare Inc.: Can Its Enhanced Utilization in AI and Agents Help Catalyze Top-Line Growth?
  • Yum! Brands: The Digital Surge Is Real—But Will It Be Enough to Fend Off Competition?
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Feb-2025): China smartphone market, 4Q ’24
  • Fortinet: Can Its Unified SASE Approach Help Capture A Larger Chunk Of The Market!
  • Hilton Worldwide: The Luxury Expansion That Could Send Shares to New Highs!
  • JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Reaffirming Long-Term Vision
  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Differentiated Portfolio Drives Solid Q3FY25 Performance; Momentum to Continue
  • GENOVA (9341 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Harley-Davidson: Can “The Hardwire” Strategy Save This Iconic Brand from Market Share Collapse?
  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – Increasingly Healthy Recovery

Cloudflare Inc.: Can Its Enhanced Utilization in AI and Agents Help Catalyze Top-Line Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Cloudflare Inc. concluded 2024 with a robust performance, reporting notable financial and operational achievements for the fourth quarter.
  • Revenue reached $459.9 million, marking a 27% increase compared to the previous year.
  • The company reported significant growth in its large customer segment—those contributing over $100,000 annually—with a year-over-year uptick of 27% in this segment, representing 69% of total revenue, up from 66% the previous year.

Yum! Brands: The Digital Surge Is Real—But Will It Be Enough to Fend Off Competition?

By Baptista Research

  • Yum!
  • Brands’ recent earnings presentation offers insights into the company’s performance and strategic trajectory, highlighting both strengths and challenges.
  • The company, encompassing renowned brands like KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, presented a mixed set of results for the latest financial year, characterized by robust digital growth, strategic expansions, and cost management, contrasted by varied performance across different market segments.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Feb-2025): China smartphone market, 4Q ’24

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • China smartphone market in 4Q 2024 expected to see growth, intensifying competition among top brands.
  • GlobalWafers remains stable despite uncertainty around US CHIPS Act funding.
  • Yageo surprises with Shibaura Electronics takeover bid, Foxconn proposes partnership with Nissan, Forces Mos wins patent case against Asus.

Fortinet: Can Its Unified SASE Approach Help Capture A Larger Chunk Of The Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Fortinet Inc.’s fiscal results for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2024 demonstrate both strengths and challenges within the company.
  • Positively, Fortinet achieved a total revenue growth of 17% for the quarter, marking a significant upturn, especially in product revenue, which attained an 18% increase—the best in six quarters.
  • The company’s strategic focus on secure networking, particularly in Unified SASE, resulted in a growth of 13% for this segment, making up 23% of the company’s business.

Hilton Worldwide: The Luxury Expansion That Could Send Shares to New Highs!

By Baptista Research

  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. provided a comprehensive overview of its performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, demonstrating robust growth and strategic expansion across its hotel portfolio.
  • The company reported strong financial results, including record unit growth, significant increases in revenue per available room (RevPAR), and notable expansion in strategic partnerships and brand diversity.
  • For 2024, Hilton achieved a system-wide RevPAR increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year, showing growth across all segments and major regions.

JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Reaffirming Long-Term Vision

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2 FY6/25 results showed the core Optical business experienced sales growth and generated segmental profits, which was positive.
  • Focusing on developing the Life Science & Equipment segment involving upfront investment resulted in flattish operating losses YoY overall.
  • FY company guidance has been maintained, implying an earnings recovery HoH driven by the Optical segment experiencing order visibility and new customer acquisition. 

Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Differentiated Portfolio Drives Solid Q3FY25 Performance; Momentum to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN) has reported solid set of numbers for Q3FY23, with revenue increasing 11% YoY, EBITDA growing 32% YoY, and net profit improving 39% YoY.
  • North America revenue increased 12% YoY and 8% QoQ to record high of INR21B. Strong momentum in complex portfolio and continued cost optimization are driving consistent profitable growth in U.S.
  • Complex generics are expected to contribute 50%+ of revenue in the next couple of years. This calls for accelerated growth and better margin.

GENOVA (9341 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 24.7% YoY to JPY7.6bn, with operating profit rising 10.6% YoY to JPY1.6bn.
  • Medical Platform business achieved 18.9% YoY revenue growth, with average contract unit price at JPY1.4mn (-0.2% YoY).
  • Smart Clinic business saw 45.1% YoY revenue growth, with hardware and software services contributing 64.0% and 36.0% respectively.

Harley-Davidson: Can “The Hardwire” Strategy Save This Iconic Brand from Market Share Collapse?

By Baptista Research

  • Harley-Davidson’s recent performance reflects a mixed bag of operational and strategic shifts amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The company’s 2024 fourth-quarter results exhibited a significant decline, with consolidated revenue decreasing by 35% compared to the previous year.
  • This decline was primarily driven by the Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) segment, which saw revenue drop by 47% as a result of a 53% decrease in wholesale shipments.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – Increasingly Healthy Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) booked an impressive set of FY2024 results, booking healthy growth driven by pharmaceuticals, distribution & Logistics, and consumer health, with slower growth from its nutritionals segment. 
  • The company continues to pursue growth in oncology and biologic drugs in its pharmaceutical segment, whilst pursuing strategic collaborations and pursuing National Health exposure. 
  • Kalbe Farma is pursuing wellness products in consumer health and repositioning toward more affordable products in the nutritional space. Valuations are attractive on 17x FY2025E PER. 

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Macro: Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (14 Februray 2025) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (14 Februray 2025)
  • Actinver Research – Walmex 4Q24: In line with our estimates (Quick View)
  • HEW: Hawkish Canaries and Sick Doves

Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (14 Februray 2025)

By Alex Ng

  • Hong Kong Hang Seng was up over 6% in the past five days as key component stocks rallied due to the Deepseek effect.
  • Compared to Chinese stocks, US market was more dormant though S&P was up 1.13%.
  • Gold was up 2.09% over worries of heightened US inflation and the prospect of rate cuts.

Actinver Research – Walmex 4Q24: In line with our estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Revenues of P$274.7bn were 8.3% higher YoY, in line with our estimates and consensus, with SSS in Mexico of 4.3% (vs our 4.0% estimates), driven by ticket growth of 4.5%, as traffic declined for another quarter (0.2%).
  • In CAM, SSS of 3.1% were again below our estimates and a further deceleration from the 3Q24 figure, with positive ticket and traffic performance of 0.8% and 2.3%, respectively.
  • Margins were in line with our estimates starting at the gross margin level.

HEW: Hawkish Canaries and Sick Doves

By Phil Rush

  • Resurgent US inflation and UK GDP growth sicken dovish arguments, even if the turn is exaggerated by residual seasonality in H1. We now see the Fed’s next move as a hike. Uruguay joined Brazil as another hawkish canary by hiking, while BSP didn’t cut.
  • It’s the RBA and RBNZ’s turn next week, where cuts are expected, but they are lagging behind the global policy cycle, not leading it. UK inflation, unemployment and wage data will be the highlights for us, along with FOMC minutes and flash PMIs.
  • Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to [email protected]).

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Zenrock: Paving the Path in DMPC and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Zenrock: Paving the Path in DMPC

Zenrock: Paving the Path in DMPC

By Delphi Digital

  • Zenrock addresses critical blockchain interoperability challenges through its distributed Multi-Party Computation (dMPC) technology.
  • While existing cross-chain solutions handle significant volumes, they remain vulnerable to security breaches, as evidenced by recent attacks resulting in losses over $965 million.
  • Built on zrChain and zrSign, Zenrock’s dMPC network offers a decentralized, trust-minimized solution for cross-chain communication.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Australia: Healius and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?

By David Blennerhassett

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung E&A, Hugel Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (17 February 2025)
  • Hugel Inc (145020 KS): Record High Performance in 2024; Continued Global Expansion to Drive Growth

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (17 February 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 17 February.
  • The top 10 stock picks (bi-weekly) include Hyundai G.F. Holding, Binggrae, Cheil Worldwide, Hana Tour, Samsung Electronics (pref), Samsung E&A, Hyundai Elevator, KT Corp, Orion Corp, and Samsung Life Insurance. 
  • We started to incorporate top negative catalysts along with positive catalysts in our top stock picks bi-weekly. Top negative catalyst is tariffs. We tried to exclude companies exposed to tariffs.

Hugel Inc (145020 KS): Record High Performance in 2024; Continued Global Expansion to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hugel Inc (145020 KS) reported record high sales, operating profit, and net profit in 2024, with the strong performance of botulinum toxin and fillers backed by the company’s global expansion.
  • Hugel aims to launch botulinum toxin in the U.S. within 1H25. The company aims for a 10% U.S. market share for aesthetic purposes within three years from the product release.
  • Hugel aims to expand its presence in more than 80 toxin markets (from 67 now), 70 dermal filler markets (current 52), and more than 10 cosmetics markets by 2028.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Kalbe Farma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – Increasingly Healthy Recovery

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – Increasingly Healthy Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) booked an impressive set of FY2024 results, booking healthy growth driven by pharmaceuticals, distribution & Logistics, and consumer health, with slower growth from its nutritionals segment. 
  • The company continues to pursue growth in oncology and biologic drugs in its pharmaceutical segment, whilst pursuing strategic collaborations and pursuing National Health exposure. 
  • Kalbe Farma is pursuing wellness products in consumer health and repositioning toward more affordable products in the nutritional space. Valuations are attractive on 17x FY2025E PER. 

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief India: Lupin Ltd, Ajax Engineering Limited, WeWork India Management Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Differentiated Portfolio Drives Solid Q3FY25 Performance; Momentum to Continue
  • Ajax Engineering IPO Trading – Decent Insti Coverage but Subdued Retail Demand
  • WeWork India IPO: A Homegrown Success Story Amid Global Turmoil

Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Differentiated Portfolio Drives Solid Q3FY25 Performance; Momentum to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN) has reported solid set of numbers for Q3FY23, with revenue increasing 11% YoY, EBITDA growing 32% YoY, and net profit improving 39% YoY.
  • North America revenue increased 12% YoY and 8% QoQ to record high of INR21B. Strong momentum in complex portfolio and continued cost optimization are driving consistent profitable growth in U.S.
  • Complex generics are expected to contribute 50%+ of revenue in the next couple of years. This calls for accelerated growth and better margin.

Ajax Engineering IPO Trading – Decent Insti Coverage but Subdued Retail Demand

By Akshat Shah

  • Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN) raised around US$145m in its India IPO.
  • Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

WeWork India IPO: A Homegrown Success Story Amid Global Turmoil

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • WeWork India Management Ltd (1690124D IN), operating independently, has turned profitable and is preparing for an IPO via an OFS, diverging from its troubled global parent.
  • The OFS structure, driven by a revenue-sharing model and a focus on enterprise clients, demonstrates strong operational resilience and an asset-light business model.
  • Investors can re-assess risk and growth potential as WeWork India’s strategic shift, improved governance, and profitability offer a compelling alternative to its global counterpart as well as other competitor.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief United States: Cloudflare , Yum! Brands Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings , Fortinet Inc, Aardvark Therapeutics, Karman Holdings, Iqvia Holdings, Intercontinental Exchange, Harley Davidson, Becton Dickinson and Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Cloudflare Inc.: Can Its Enhanced Utilization in AI and Agents Help Catalyze Top-Line Growth?
  • Yum! Brands: The Digital Surge Is Real—But Will It Be Enough to Fend Off Competition?
  • Hilton Worldwide: The Luxury Expansion That Could Send Shares to New Highs!
  • Fortinet: Can Its Unified SASE Approach Help Capture A Larger Chunk Of The Market!
  • Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red
  • Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Space and Defense IPO Blasts Off, High Hit Rate in Roadshow
  • IQVIA Holdings: Mergers & Acquisitions Strategy Is a Significant Needle Mover!
  • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): Mortgage Industry Digitization For A Positive Long-Term Trajectory!
  • Harley-Davidson: Can “The Hardwire” Strategy Save This Iconic Brand from Market Share Collapse?
  • Becton Dickinson: 85% Recurring Revenue—Is This Stock an Untouchable Healthcare Powerhouse?

Cloudflare Inc.: Can Its Enhanced Utilization in AI and Agents Help Catalyze Top-Line Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Cloudflare Inc. concluded 2024 with a robust performance, reporting notable financial and operational achievements for the fourth quarter.
  • Revenue reached $459.9 million, marking a 27% increase compared to the previous year.
  • The company reported significant growth in its large customer segment—those contributing over $100,000 annually—with a year-over-year uptick of 27% in this segment, representing 69% of total revenue, up from 66% the previous year.

Yum! Brands: The Digital Surge Is Real—But Will It Be Enough to Fend Off Competition?

By Baptista Research

  • Yum!
  • Brands’ recent earnings presentation offers insights into the company’s performance and strategic trajectory, highlighting both strengths and challenges.
  • The company, encompassing renowned brands like KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, presented a mixed set of results for the latest financial year, characterized by robust digital growth, strategic expansions, and cost management, contrasted by varied performance across different market segments.

Hilton Worldwide: The Luxury Expansion That Could Send Shares to New Highs!

By Baptista Research

  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. provided a comprehensive overview of its performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, demonstrating robust growth and strategic expansion across its hotel portfolio.
  • The company reported strong financial results, including record unit growth, significant increases in revenue per available room (RevPAR), and notable expansion in strategic partnerships and brand diversity.
  • For 2024, Hilton achieved a system-wide RevPAR increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year, showing growth across all segments and major regions.

Fortinet: Can Its Unified SASE Approach Help Capture A Larger Chunk Of The Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Fortinet Inc.’s fiscal results for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2024 demonstrate both strengths and challenges within the company.
  • Positively, Fortinet achieved a total revenue growth of 17% for the quarter, marking a significant upturn, especially in product revenue, which attained an 18% increase—the best in six quarters.
  • The company’s strategic focus on secure networking, particularly in Unified SASE, resulted in a growth of 13% for this segment, making up 23% of the company’s business.

Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red

By IPO Boutique

  • Aardvark Therapeutics priced a full size deal of 5.88mm shares at the low end of the range, $16.00, and opened at $15.18 for a loss of 5.1% at first trade.
  • The volume on day one was just 1.7 million shares or less than 30% of the float. 
  • As the company progresses through its trials and more readouts and data becomes available, this biotech may find a better footing.

Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Space and Defense IPO Blasts Off, High Hit Rate in Roadshow

By IPO Boutique

  • The Trive Capital (private equity) backed company priced 23.0mm shares (upsized from 21.05mm) at $22.00 ($2 Above Range) and opened at $30.00 for a 36.3% gain at first trade. 
  • The deal finished roughly 17-times oversubscribed with the top ten percent of the deal receiving 50% of the offerings and top 25% of the transaction receiving 75% of the allocations.
  • Given the success of the IPO on day one, we will be upwardly-revising our 30-day forecast on this IPO.

IQVIA Holdings: Mergers & Acquisitions Strategy Is a Significant Needle Mover!

By Baptista Research

  • IQVIA Holdings Inc. has reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings, showcasing a mixed but overall resilient financial performance in a challenging landscape.
  • Despite facing hindrances such as the Inflation Reduction Act impacts, geopolitical unrest, high interest rates, and inflation, the company has displayed significant achievements and noticeable resilience.
  • On the positive side, IQVIA has recorded a full-year revenue growth of 5.5% at constant currency excluding COVID-related declines, with adjusted diluted earnings per share rising by over 9%.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): Mortgage Industry Digitization For A Positive Long-Term Trajectory!

By Baptista Research

  • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported a record-setting financial performance in 2024, marked by notable increases in revenue, profit, and cash flows, despite various economic and market challenges.
  • The company’s adjusted earnings per share reached $6.07, representing an 8% year-over-year increase, while total net revenue climbed to $9.3 billion, reflecting a 6% growth when adjusted for its acquisition impact of Black Knight.
  • This acquisition contributed to pushing operating income to $5.5 billion, marking a 10% rise.

Harley-Davidson: Can “The Hardwire” Strategy Save This Iconic Brand from Market Share Collapse?

By Baptista Research

  • Harley-Davidson’s recent performance reflects a mixed bag of operational and strategic shifts amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The company’s 2024 fourth-quarter results exhibited a significant decline, with consolidated revenue decreasing by 35% compared to the previous year.
  • This decline was primarily driven by the Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) segment, which saw revenue drop by 47% as a result of a 53% decrease in wholesale shipments.

Becton Dickinson: 85% Recurring Revenue—Is This Stock an Untouchable Healthcare Powerhouse?

By Baptista Research

  • Becton, Dickinson and Company (BD) recently held its first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings presentation, announcing strong financial performance and strategic decisions that could significantly reshape the company’s future.
  • The most critical updates included the impressive results from its existing business units, plans to separate its Biosciences and Diagnostic Solutions segment, and supporting market prospects driven by ongoing innovation.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief China: Blackstone , Cathay Pacific Airways, Will Semiconductor Shan and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Bain Capital buys worker housing from Blackstone for $555M.
  • A Bullish Case for Cathay Pacific (CX)
  • More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Bain Capital buys worker housing from Blackstone for $555M.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Bain Capital acquires worker housing in Singapore for $555M from Blackstone, expanding their real estate portfolio in the region.
  • Standard Chartered Marketing Shanghai Office Blocks due to BlackRock default, highlighting the impact of financial decisions on commercial real estate.
  • PAG successfully raises $4B for APAC real estate fund, demonstrating investor confidence in the region’s property market despite economic uncertainties.

A Bullish Case for Cathay Pacific (CX)

By Alex Ng

  • Cathay Pacific carried a total of 2,248,950 passengers in December 2024, an increase of 26.4% compared with December 2023.
  • The month’s revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) increased 27.9% year on year.
  • Passenger load factor increased by 3.6 percentage points to 84.8%, while available seat kilometres (ASKs) increased by 22.5% year on year. 

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
  • $116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
  • DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials

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