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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Renewi, IMCD Group NV, Innodata and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Macquarie’s £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 13 December [IMCD | NX Filtration]
  • INOD: Growth Pathway in 2025


Macquarie’s £8.7/share Bid for Renewi Supported by Key Shareholders Amid 9% Spread and Due Diligence Completion

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Macquarie Asset Management’s final bid for Renewi is £8.7/share, with a current spread of 9% and a downside risk of 25%.
  • Three shareholders holding 15.1% of Renewi have signed irrevocable support agreements; confirmatory due diligence is ongoing.
  • Macquarie’s offer values Renewi at 6.7x TTM adj. EBITDA, aligning with European peers’ valuations, considering the control premium.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 13 December [IMCD | NX Filtration]

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • IMCD | acquires Daoqin in China • NX Filtration | revises FY24 revenue outlook strongly downwards

INOD: Growth Pathway in 2025

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The risk to INOD experiencing a sequential decline in spending activity in the near-term could have been alleviated from the continued spending in artificial intelligence (“A.I.”).   
  • AMZN and GOOGL have their internally developed processors ready for high performance deep learning. The new chips suggest A.I. training is not going anywhere and could expand in 2025.   
  • INOD’s revenue growth has been predominantly from one customer. This should begin to change in 2025. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Oji Paper (3861 JP) – Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Oji Paper (3861 JP) – Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register
  • NEC Networks (1973 JP) Final Showdown II – Synergies Not Included, So Fair Value Not Offered
  • Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?
  • VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Makes His Move?
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Contemplating a Privatisation Bid
  • Lufax (6623 HK): On Ping An’s Stake Increases
  • FSS Puts a Break on Hyundai Motor Securities Rights Offering
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain’s Indicative Proposal a Tad Light
  • EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special
  • Grifols: Activism and Debt Refinancing


Oji Paper (3861 JP) – Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

By Travis Lundy

  • Paper manufacturer Oji Holdings (3861 JP) has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn’t exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.
  • But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. 
  • The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.

NEC Networks (1973 JP) Final Showdown II – Synergies Not Included, So Fair Value Not Offered

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, NEC Corp (6701 JP) extended its Tender Offer to buy controlled subsidiary Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP) for another 10 days. It did not have enough shares.
  • As discussed here 4wks ago, then here yesterday, NEC might not get enough shares unless it offers a higher price. There’s a reason. It is not a high enough price. 
  • METI Fair M&A Guidelines and Guidelines for Corporate Takeovers define fair. Guarantees of a floor price and a fair allocation of synergies. One is questionable. The other is not there.

Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

By Arun George

  • Vesync (2148 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
  • The Yang family is likely seeking to privatise Vesync through a Cayman scheme. The shares are trading 24% below the HK$5.52 IPO price.
  • We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71, a 59.8% premium to last close.

VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Makes His Move?

By David Blennerhassett

  • VCredit Holdings Ltd (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, was listed on the 21st June 2018 at HK$20/share. Shares are currently down 90%.
  • Ma Ting Hung, VCredit’s chairman, held 35.6% at the time of listing, and currently holds 39.85%.  
  • VCredit was suspended this morning pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Now might be the time for Ma to take VCredit back into the fold. 

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Contemplating a Privatisation Bid

By Arun George

  • IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) shares rose 11% in the final minutes of trade, fueled by media reports suggesting that Bain was in the advanced stages of making a buyout offer.
  • The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates an attractive takeover premium. Takeover interest is unsurprising as Insignia trades at a material discount to peers.
  • We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer, which suggests a price range of A$3.44-5.50 per share, with an average of A$4.67, a 37.4% premium to the last close.

Lufax (6623 HK): On Ping An’s Stake Increases

By David Blennerhassett

  • As discussed in PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) – The Arb Is To Take The Stock, Ping An increased its stake in Lufax (6623 HK) to 56.82% via a scrip dividend.
  • This triggered a zero-premium MGO, which closed on the 28 October 2024 with negligible tendering.
  • Via an amendment to a tri-party agreement, Ping An subsequently lifted its stake to 66.85%. It’s worth understanding how Ping An has taken its stake >50% and beyond. 

FSS Puts a Break on Hyundai Motor Securities Rights Offering

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 12 December, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) put a break on Hyundai Motor Securities’ rights offering worth 200 billion won.
  • The proposed rights offering included issuing 30.1 million new shares, representing 95% of its current outstanding shares (31.7 million).
  • We would try to capitalize on the short term bullish upside on its shares of Hyundai Motor Securities and sell into strength.  

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain’s Indicative Proposal a Tad Light

By Brian Freitas

  • IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) has received an indicative proposal from Bain Capital to acquire all of its shares at A$4/share in cash.
  • The offer takes advantage of IOOF Holdings (IFL AU)‘s underperformance over the last couple of years and there could be competing offers from other investment managers. 
  • Short interest in IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) is around 2% of shares out and 2.5% of float. There could be short covering in the next few days.

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today’s opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin
  • Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.
  • Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President’s crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.

Grifols: Activism and Debt Refinancing

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Debt Refinancing Achieved: Grifols issued €1.3 billion in bonds and extended its revolving credit facility, significantly improving liquidity to €1.7 billion proforma for Q3 2024 while addressing 2025 maturities.
  • Activist Shareholder Pressure: Hedge funds, including Flat Footed, continue to push for governance reforms, citing conflicts of interest and value destruction involving the Grifols family and board member Tomás Dagá.
  • Valuation Opportunity: Grifols trades at a high discount to peers, with upside potential based on its strong market position in plasma therapies, EBITDA recovery, and margin expansion post-COVID.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 6th): Apa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 6th): Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 6th): Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.9bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Apa, Champion Iron, Pro Medicus, BHP, National Australia Bank, Goodman.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: ReNew Energy
  • In the US, inflation data was benign and supported expectations for a Fed interest rate cut this month. The CPI inflation came in at 2.7% y-o-y in November (2.7% e / 2.6% p), while the core CPI inflation stood at 3.3% (3.3% e / 3.3% p).
  • US Treasury sold off across the curve, with the yields gaining 4-6 bps. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.8% and 1.8%, respectively.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Inflation Jitters Drag Down Tech Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Inflation Jitters Drag Down Tech Stocks
  • What Trump’s presidency means for banking
  • Singapore Market Roundup (12-Dec-2024): Morningstar Boosts SGX’s Value
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/TSLA US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211 HK/300750 CH/BEKE US/1810 HK/LKNCY US
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Black Friday; Furniture Demand Still Weak
  • Biopharma Week in Review – December 9, 2024


Ohayo Japan | Inflation Jitters Drag Down Tech Stocks

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks declined, dragged down by a hotter-than-expected producer price index report that increased wholesale prices by 0.4%
  • Marubeni plans to accelerate asset sales, targeting at least ¥160 billion annually from FY2026, a 30% increase from the previous three-year average
  • Oji Holdings will undertake a share buyback program, purchasing up to 100 million shares (10.1% of total issued shares) for as much as ¥50 billion

What Trump’s presidency means for banking

By Behind the Money

  • Uncertainty around Trump administration’s policies, including deregulation and potential impacts on banking and the economy, may create challenges and opportunities for the banking sector in the next four years
  • The US banking sector is expected to remain strong and dominant, with potential growth for top banks like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.
  • The future of banking may see a divide between larger, stronger banks and fewer smaller institutions, with potential changes in the private credit sector.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Singapore Market Roundup (12-Dec-2024): Morningstar Boosts SGX’s Value

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Morningstar’s positive assessment of SGX boosts the company’s value, attracting optimism from major financial institutions like Citi, Morgan Stanley, and RHB.
  • Maybank’s decision to maintain a ‘buy’ rating on Sembcorp and raise its target price follows the company’s deal to import renewable energy from Malaysia, indicating confidence in its future prospects.
  • DBS sells off 54,600 CLINT units for $61,152, suggesting the bank may be reallocating its investment portfolio or adjusting its positions in certain assets.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/TSLA US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211 HK/300750 CH/BEKE US/1810 HK/LKNCY US

By Eric Wen

  • LI US/TSLA US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211 HK:In the 49th week of 2024, LI and Tesla hedged against the slowdown in industry sales by increasing subsidies (/////////)
  • 300750 CH: CATL announces a battery Factory plan in Spain, marking its third overseas plant (+)
  • BEKE US: Second week of December sees abnormal surge in existing home sales, while new home sales maintain steady growth (+)

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Black Friday; Furniture Demand Still Weak

By Water Tower Research

  • The market was of two minds the past week, with big caps outperforming small caps and furniture and furnishings retailers outperforming manufacturers.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was down 2.6% and the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was down 0.2%, while the Home Goods Retailers Index was up 2.9% and the Mass Retailers Index was up 5.4%.
  • The S&P 500 and DJ30 were both up 0.7%, while the R2K fell 1.2%.

Biopharma Week in Review – December 9, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
  • Last week, BIOA discontinued its lead obesity study, while JANX had impressive prostate cancer data, which also lifted VIR.
  • MRUS gained from earlier HNSCC abstract data but may give it back after its weekend presentation. 

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Michael Green and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Michael Green, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management


Michael Green, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management

By Alpha Exchange

  • Mike Green explains how leveraged products on MSTR resemble a short straddle in their rebalancing requirements
  • The two times leveraged long products, MSTU and MSTX, are unique due to their large size and underlying asset volatility, creating potential volume amplifying feedback loops
  • The leveraged complex has contributed to the large premium of MSTR to the value of its bitcoin holdings, impacting ETFs forced to use options market due to limited leverage from swap providers

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Daily Brief ECM: IGI (India) IPO – Unique Exposure but Questionable Acquisition and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • IGI (India) IPO – Unique Exposure but Questionable Acquisition, and 4x Returns for PE in 18 Months
  • Sai Life Sciences IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • LG CNS Pre-IPO – Post-COVID Beneficiary
  • Star Agriwarehousing and Collateral Management Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


IGI (India) IPO – Unique Exposure but Questionable Acquisition, and 4x Returns for PE in 18 Months

By Sumeet Singh

  • International Gemmological Institute (India) Limited (IGII) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
  • In this note, we will look at the company’s past performance and talk about the IPO valuations.

Sai Life Sciences IPO – Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN) is looking to raise up to US$360m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Sai Life Sciences is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation providing end-to-end services across drug discovery, development and manufacturing value-chain, for small to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

LG CNS Pre-IPO – Post-COVID Beneficiary

By Clarence Chu

  • LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise around US$850m in its upcoming Korea IPO. 
  • LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Star Agriwarehousing and Collateral Management Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Star Agriwarehousing and Collateral Management Ltd (0207140D IN) (SACM) is planning to raise about US$100m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are JMFin, Ambit, Equirius.
  • SACM is a technology-led integrated agricultural value-chain services platform that provides services such as procurement, trade facilitation, warehousing, collateral management, financing solutions, a digital marketplace, and data services.
  • According to the F&S report, the company was the largest by revenue and the most profitable technology-led integrated value chain services platform during the FY22 to FY24. 

Pre-IPO Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The financial data for 2024 has already shown investors weak growth signal.After IPO, Xiaocaiyuan may face stricter scrutiny from investors and the market in terms of its sustainable performance growth.
  • It’s not easy for Xiaocaiyuan to find new growth points. Catering companies commonly face problems such as performance fluctuations and uncertain profitability, which has left their share price underperforming.
  • Post investment valuation has already reached RMB10 billion, which far exceeds the market value of A-share peers. Due to concerns on the outlook, valuation performance after IPO could be lower-than-expected.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Delphi’s Markets Year Ahead 2025 and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Delphi’s Markets Year Ahead 2025


Delphi’s Markets Year Ahead 2025

By The Delphi Podcast

  • Discussion on the performance and outlook of various assets, including Solana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin
  • Analysis of market trends and potential factors that could drive asset valuations in the future
  • Debate on the future dominance and valuation of different L1 networks such as Solana and Ethereum
  • Speculation on the potential for an L1 network to surpass the market cap of Bitcoin and gold
  • Mention of upcoming report release and the importance of becoming a subscriber for detailed insights

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Coupang Inc.: Its Efforts Towards International Expansion & Market Penetration & Other Major Drivers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Coupang Inc.: Its Efforts Towards International Expansion & Market Penetration & Other Major Drivers
  • Novanta Inc.: An Insight Into Its Strategic Market Positioning in Robotics…
  • BlackLine’s Game-Changing Product Innovations: Discover How the Accounting Studio Is Redefining Financial Automation! – Major Drivers
  • Mediatek: Apple Watch Win Highlights Smartwatch Market Opportunity; Apple Supply Chain Breakthrough
  • Michael Dell: Building a Tech Empire, Bold Business Moves and The Key To Winning
  • International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF).: Global Expansion
  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Refining Utilization & Operational Excellence To Redefine the Industry! – Major Drivers
  • NVIDIA Faces Mounting Challenges Amid China Probe and Tech War Escalation!
  • Accolade Inc.: Diversified Demand Channels Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers
  • GlobalFoundries Inc.: Automotive & Industrial IoT Integration As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers


Coupang Inc.: Its Efforts Towards International Expansion & Market Penetration & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Chevron Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 financial results demonstrated a mixture of positive operational achievements and financial headwinds.
  • The company reported earnings of $4.5 billion or $2.48 per share, with adjusted earnings similarly at $4.5 billion or $2.51 per share.
  • Despite these substantial earnings, this marked a decrease from the prior year largely due to lower liquids realizations and increased depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A), particularly at the Tengizchevroil (TCO) project in Kazakhstan.

Novanta Inc.: An Insight Into Its Strategic Market Positioning in Robotics…

By Baptista Research

  • Novanta Inc.’s third quarter of 2024 results reflect a mixed performance driven by a challenging macroeconomic environment, customer-related timing issues, and some positive business developments.
  • The company reported revenue of $244 million, an increase of 10% year-over-year, though organic growth was flat.
  • Adjusted gross margins were 46%, a slight decline from the previous year due to the dilution from the Motion Solutions acquisition, although core business margins improved by 70 basis points.

BlackLine’s Game-Changing Product Innovations: Discover How the Accounting Studio Is Redefining Financial Automation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BlackLine’s recent quarterly performance showcases a mix of both robust achievements and ongoing strategic challenges.
  • The company, co-led by Owen Ryan and Therese Tucker, has demonstrated its ability to exceed revenue and profitability targets, reflecting effective strategic execution.
  • A significant achievement this quarter was the record free cash flow generation, indicating strong financial health and potential for reinvestment in growth initiatives.

Mediatek: Apple Watch Win Highlights Smartwatch Market Opportunity; Apple Supply Chain Breakthrough

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Mediatek’s Apple Watch Win Highlights Smartwatch Market Opportunity; Breakthrough Into Apple’s Supply Chain
  • MediaTek’s Role in Apple Watch Connectivity; Mediatek’s TSMC Relationship to Provide a Lasting Advantage
  • Mediatek Rallied But Remains Below Highs; Significant Upside Remains — Maintain Structural Long

Michael Dell: Building a Tech Empire, Bold Business Moves and The Key To Winning

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • Interview with Michael Dell, founder of Dell Technologies, discussing his journey and insights in the tech industry
  • Dell started his tech career at a young age, working in a Chinese restaurant and later upgrading computers
  • Dell shares his thoughts on entrepreneurship, technology development, and the future impact of AI in various industries

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF).: Global Expansion

By Baptista Research

  • International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) exhibited robust financial performance in its third quarter of 2024, showcasing a significant upward trend across its business units.
  • IFF achieved a notable growth in revenue, surpassing $2.9 billion, reflecting a 9% increase on a comparable, currency-neutral basis.
  • This growth was driven by high single-digit to double-digit volume improvements across various segments, notably in the Nourish, Health & Biosciences, Scent, and Pharma Solutions units.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Refining Utilization & Operational Excellence To Redefine the Industry! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported third quarter earnings per share of $1.87 with a refining utilization rate of 94%.
  • The company continues to deliver solid performance in its refining and marketing (R&M) segment, boasting a 96% capture rate, a 2% improvement quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong commercial performance.
  • The refining operating costs were at $5.30 per barrel, a slight increase primarily due to decreased throughputs and higher project expenses linked to intensified turnaround activity.

NVIDIA Faces Mounting Challenges Amid China Probe and Tech War Escalation!

By Baptista Research

  • NVIDIA Corporation, the global AI and semiconductor powerhouse, has found itself in the crosshairs of China’s antitrust regulators.
  • Amid an escalating tech war between the U.S. and China, Beijing’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an investigation into NVIDIA’s compliance with antimonopoly laws concerning its $6.9 billion acquisition of Mellanox Technologies in 2020.
  • This probe comes on the heels of the U.S. imposing stricter export controls on advanced semiconductor technologies, further intensifying the global tech rivalry.

Accolade Inc.: Diversified Demand Channels Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Accolade’s recent earnings disclosure offers a comprehensive perspective on its current market positioning and performance, highlighting several important facets relevant to understanding its investment potential.
  • The company, which focuses on healthcare advocacy and personalized solutions, detailed its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, underscoring both areas of confidence and concern for investors.
  • Accolade reported quarterly revenue of $106.4 million, exceeding its guided range.

GlobalFoundries Inc.: Automotive & Industrial IoT Integration As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • GlobalFoundries’ third-quarter fiscal year 2024 results provide a comprehensive overview of its financial performance and strategic initiatives.
  • The company reported revenue of $1.739 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 7% sequential growth, albeit a 6% decline year-over-year.
  • This revenue growth is commendable given the challenging industry conditions with lower factory utilization levels around mid-70s.

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Daily Brief Macro: The US Dollar and the Only Chart that Matters! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The US Dollar and the Only Chart that Matters!
  • Geopolitical Flash Update: See you later Scholz!
  • South Korean President Yoon’s Address to the Nation: Focus on Election Integrity and Election Fraud
  • CX Daily: Share Cancellation Key to Ensuring PBOC’s Relending Tool Stabilizes Stock Market
  • ECB: Removing Restrictiveness
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 Dec 2024
  • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?
  • How India’s ethanol boom is transforming the country’s corn trade flow
  • SNB: 50bp Rate Cut To 0.5% (Consensus 0.75%) in Dec-24


The US Dollar and the Only Chart that Matters!

By David Mudd

  • The US Net International Investment Position (NIIP) as a debtor country has ballooned since the GFC, attracting global demand for US assets, which feeds demand for the dollar.
  • Historically high dollar demand has allowed the US to enjoy the benefits of low interest rates and created a historic bull market in US equities.
  • As the US continues to use its currency for geopolitical purposes, countries have begun to question dollar hegemony.  The US fights against any country that tries to weaken the dollar

Geopolitical Flash Update: See you later Scholz!

By Anne Sandager

  • On Dec. 4, Michel Barnier became only the second Prime Minister in French history to be ousted by a no-confidence vote.

  • Precisely one week later, the other major EU economy, Germany, submitted a motion of no-confidence of its own to be held on Dec. 16. What the heck is going on in Europe?!

  • The political chaos in France and Germany has the same root cause: a sluggish economy and insurmountable debt levels.


South Korean President Yoon’s Address to the Nation: Focus on Election Integrity and Election Fraud

By Douglas Kim

  • The biggest takeaway from President Yoon’s address to the nation today was his focus on election integrity and election fraud.
  • He was basically implying that the biggest reason for declaring a martial law was due to severe concerns about security breach issues at the National Election Commission.
  • One of the clear beneficiaries of President Yoon’s speech today will be the cybersecurity sector.

CX Daily: Share Cancellation Key to Ensuring PBOC’s Relending Tool Stabilizes Stock Market

By Caixin Global

  • Relending / Share cancellation key to ensuring PBOC’s relending tool stabilizes stock market, insiders say
  • Chips /In Depth: Chasing chip talent to keep the boom alive
  • Preview /Commentary: CEWC will endorse stronger policy support to counter headwinds

ECB: Removing Restrictiveness

By Phil Rush

  • The ECB matched our expectations by cutting its deposit rate by 25bp to 3%. Dovish hopes for a 50bp punch were disappointed, albeit mostly faded in recent weeks.
  • Removing the reference to sufficiently restrictive policy was reasonable before reaching neutral, with the appropriate determination language being similar.
  • 25bp cuts in January and March would take rates to the upper end of last year’s staff estimates for neutral, which may have risen, justifying not much easing beyond that.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 Dec 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • US Inflation Debate: Mixed CPI trends suggest interest rate cuts are market-driven, with asset price inflation overlooked.
  • Japan’s Economic Struggles: Soft GDP growth and rising wage costs raise doubts over premature interest rate hikes.
  • China and Philippines Outlook: China favors sustainable growth, while the Philippines faces deepening trade deficits and an overvalued peso.

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

By Sameer Taneja

  • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. 
  • We should not assign a high probability to the asset’s resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.
  • The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama’s optionality makes it attractive.

How India’s ethanol boom is transforming the country’s corn trade flow

By Commodities Focus

  • India’s ethanol policy is driving increasing corn demand both locally and for imports
  • India’s corn production is estimated to be around 38 million for the next year
  • India primarily imports non-GMO corn from Myanmar and Ukraine for their ethanol industry, facing challenges in meeting the demand due to feedstock tightness and high import duties

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


SNB: 50bp Rate Cut To 0.5% (Consensus 0.75%) in Dec-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The SNB cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 0.5%, surprising consensus expectations for a lesser reduction because of lower-than-expected inflation and subdued economic conditions.
  • Inflation projections remain well within the price stability range, with medium-term forecasts reflecting subdued second-round effects, though heightened global and domestic uncertainties may influence future rate decisions.
  • The SNB is flexibly prepared to keep easing if inflationary pressures weaken further while maintaining readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to manage franc appreciation.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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