Category

TMT/Internet

TMT: Jaymart PCL, Baker Hughes Co, Abbvie Inc, Asana, Ambarella Inc, Deutsche Post AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low
  • The Sound Shore Fund Q1 2022 Letter To Shareholders
  • Carillon Eagle Growth & Income Fund Q1 2022 Commentary
  • Carillon Eagle Small Cap Growth Fund Q1 2022 Commentary
  • Carillon Scout Small Cap Fund Q1 2022 Commentary
  • Carillon Clarivest International Stock Fund Q1 2022 Commentary
  • Carillon Clarivest International Fund Q1 2022 Commentary
  • Carillon Clarivest Capital Appreciation Fund Q1 2022 Commentary
  • Carillon Eagle Mid Cap Growth Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low

By Brian Freitas


The Sound Shore Fund Q1 2022 Letter To Shareholders

By Fund Newsletters

  • Sound Shore Fund, Inc. is registered as a diversified, open-end management investment company. The investment objective of the Fund is growth of capital.
  • The Sound Shore Fund Investor Class (SSHFX) and Institutional Class (SSHVX) declined 0.97% and 0.91%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2022.
  • The current environment is providing a remarkably robust set of opportunities that we have not seen in some time.

Carillon Eagle Growth & Income Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • The Carillon Family of Funds spans a range of investment objectives and asset classes designed for long-term investors.
  • Along with the spike in oil prices, energy stocks performed best during the quarter, followed by more defensive and countercyclical sectors like utilities and consumer staples.
  • As we look toward the rest of 2022, we continue to see a somewhat balanced outlook for equity markets returns.

Carillon Eagle Small Cap Growth Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • The Carillon Family of Funds spans a range of investment objectives and asset classes designed for long-term investors.
  • Small-cap stocks overall posted rather lackluster returns in the first quarter of 2022.
  • Inflation and sharply higher gasoline prices have taken a chunk out of the consumer’s pocketbook.

Carillon Scout Small Cap Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • The Carillon Family of Funds spans a range of investment objectives and asset classes designed for long-term investors.
  • Inflation concerns and accelerating expectations of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve sent equity markets in a downward spiral to start the new year.
  • Investors continued to favor value stocks over growth stocks as small-cap value outperformed small-cap growth by more than 10% during the quarter.

Carillon Clarivest International Stock Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • The Carillon Family of Funds spans a range of investment objectives and asset classes designed for long-term investors.
  • The U.S. stock and bond markets appear to be conveying different assessments of the outlook, leaving investors to decide which view will prevail.
  • The situation could favor U.S. stocks, as they are more insulated than their European counterparts from energy price spikes and the direct impacts of the war and its economic ramifications.

Carillon Clarivest International Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • The Carillon Family of Funds spans a range of investment objectives and asset classes designed for long-term investors.
  • The U.S. stock and bond markets appear to be conveying different assessments of the outlook, leaving investors to decide which view will prevail.
  • Focusing on how it affects markets, the war also is a concern for global growth and a source of volatility as the highly uncertain situation evolves.

Carillon Clarivest Capital Appreciation Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • The Carillon Family of Funds spans a range of investment objectives and asset classes designed for long-term investors.
  • Q1 2022 was marred by tragedy on a global scale and investors encountered three months of volatile trading induced by persistently high inflation, rising rates, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • Over the last 12 months many investors anchored to the long-term growth trends while discounting value’s recent strength, and more importantly the reasons behind it.

Carillon Eagle Mid Cap Growth Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • The Carillon Family of Funds spans a range of investment objectives and asset classes designed for long-term investors.
  • Mid-cap stocks overall posted rather disappointing returns in the first quarter of 2022.
  • The outlook for the cyclical areas of the stock market appears mixed against a backdrop of higher commodity prices, rising interest rates, and geopolitical unrest.
  • On a more positive note, strong pent-up demand for travel should help to bolster securities.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Mercari Inc, Renesas Electronics, GoTo, Tencent, iQIYI Inc, TRIPLE-1, Pagseguro Digital Ltd, AKM Industrial, Aon Plc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Mercari (4385 JP): Section Transfer Means TOPIX & FTSE Inclusion
  • Mercari (4385) TOPIX Inclusion, Finally… And It’s Bigger Than It Looks
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & Potential Changes
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Ploughing a Path to Profitability
  • Tencent: Is Tencent Trying to Cope with Revenue Slowdown?
  • IQiyi – Generates Profits for the First Time; Can It Maintain Its Profitability?
  • TRIPLE-1 – Power Efficient ASICS
  • Payment Companies Screens – More Constructive Market Signals or a Bear Market Rally?
  • AKM’s Scheme Document, Court Meeting on 22 June, IFA Opinion
  • Weitz Investment Management Value Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

Mercari (4385 JP): Section Transfer Means TOPIX & FTSE Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Mercari Inc (4385 JP) was deleted from the MSCI Japan at the close today. Then the company announced that it would move to the Prime Market on 7 June.
  • Transfer to Prime Market will require passive TPX INDEX trackers to buy stock end July and FTSE All-World trackers to buy in September – around 19% of free float together.
  • Short interest is over 13% of free float. Some of the shorts would have covered against the passive MSCI selling today but the remaining shorts could look to cover.

Mercari (4385) TOPIX Inclusion, Finally… And It’s Bigger Than It Looks

By Travis Lundy


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & Potential Changes

By Brian Freitas


GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Ploughing a Path to Profitability

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo announced its much-anticipated FY2021 and 1Q2022 results, which did not disappoint, with improvements in a number of different metrics across its main verticals.  
  • 1Q2022 saw a QoQ increase for on-demand, e-commerce, and fintech versus a seasonally strong 4Q plus the group improved take rates and contribution margin in 1Q2022 versus 4Q2021.
  • GoTo‘s guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to improve profitability and growth.

Tencent: Is Tencent Trying to Cope with Revenue Slowdown?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent reported lowest YoY increase in revenue in 1Q2022. Subsequent to this, Tencent mentioned during earnings call that it continues to scale back on loss-making activities across its business segments.
  • Recent scale back of operation is in its cloud-services segment that includes loss-making activities such as projects with high proportion of sub-contractors and deeply discounted-contracts for CVM and CDN capacity.
  • Layoffs have become prevalent as a cost cutting measure and Tencent is in the process of reducing headcount at gaming and fintech businesses.  

IQiyi – Generates Profits for the First Time; Can It Maintain Its Profitability?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • IQiyi reported 1Q2022 results last week. Revenue fell 8.7% YoY to RMB 7.3bn (vs consensus RMB 7.22bn) and reported an OP of RMB 93.4m (vs consensus loss of RMB 297m).
  • Growth in ARM helped offset decline in the number of subscribers for membership revenue. However, online advertising and content distribution both declined due to lack of content and macroeconomic weaknesses.  
  • IQiyi’s shares have gained 11.2% since its earnings announcement as the company reported an OPM for the first time.

TRIPLE-1 – Power Efficient ASICS

By Mio Kato

  • TRIPLE-1 was established in 2016 and got its start designing highly power efficient ASICs used for cryptocurrency mining, partnering with TSMC to use its leading-edge nodes. 
  • Since then the company has moved on to develop ASICs specialised in AI applications as well as for 5G base stations. 
  • In all cases the company emphasises power efficiency and with significant gearing into local 5G networks the domestic focus could be a positive rather than a negative.

Payment Companies Screens – More Constructive Market Signals or a Bear Market Rally?

By Victor Galliano

  • Since our March-end report, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay – worked better than our longs, given the continuing turbulent conditions; Santander’s offer for Getnet minorities signals a specific opportunity
  • We still favour Mastercard in the megacaps, and we stick with PagSeguro and Nexi despite both having disappointed; Cielo has been a strong performer, but we would not chase it
  • Among our shorts, we remain negative on DLocal, given its very demanding valuations, and we still see Kakao Pay to be fundamentally over-valued; we reintroduce Paytm to the shorts list

AKM’s Scheme Document, Court Meeting on 22 June, IFA Opinion

By Arun George

  • The AKM Industrial (1639 HK) scheme document is out with the court and EGM meeting on 22 June. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. 
  • The key condition is the scheme approval by at least 75% and rejection by <10% of disinterested shareholders. Shareholders who hold blocking stakes have provided irrevocables.
  • At last close and for a 4 August payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.1% and 6.2%, respectively. This is a done deal.

Weitz Investment Management Value Fund Q1 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • Founded by value investor Wally Weitz in 1983, Weitz Investment Management, Inc. is a boutique, employee-owned asset management firm headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
  • The Value Fund’s Institutional Class returned -7.96% for the first quarter.
  • Our companies are generally reporting solid financial results, at least so far, and they are adapting fluidly to rapidly evolving conditions.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Bilibili, AKM Industrial, Electronic Arts, Activision Blizzard, Apple, Ebay Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Bilibili (9626 HK) Pre-Earnings: Layoff Will Slow Down Minor Biz, But More Importantly Cut Loss
  • AKM (1639 HK): 22nd June Scheme Meeting. IFA Says Fair
  • Harding Loevner International Small Companies Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter
  • Harding Loevner Global Small Companies Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter
  • Harding Loevner International Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter
  • Sporting Crypto – May 30th 2022: eBay Skate to where the puck is going

Bilibili (9626 HK) Pre-Earnings: Layoff Will Slow Down Minor Biz, But More Importantly Cut Loss

By Ming Lu

  • BILI dismissed employees in game, e-commerce, and video in May.
  • We believe the growth rates of minor businesses will slow down significantly in 1Q22.
  • However, the operating margin will improve in 2022 and 2023.

AKM (1639 HK): 22nd June Scheme Meeting. IFA Says Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Scheme Document Document for AKM Industrial (1639 HK), a flexible printed board player, has been despatched.  The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 22nd June. 
  • The Offer Price is HK$1.82/share. It will not be increased. No further dividends will be added, 
  • Trading tight at a gross/annualised spread of 1.1%/6.4%, assuming payment in early August.

Harding Loevner International Small Companies Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Harding Loevner has been investing globally in high-quality, growing businesses based on disciplined industry research since 1989.
  • Stock markets fell in the quarter, as the world watched in horror Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • While we are optimistic that China will maintain its neutrality in the war, we can’t dismiss the possibility we are wrong.
  • With the volatility of stock prices thisquarter, portfolio activitypicked up as a handfulof high-quality growth companies we had long admired, but regarded as too expensive, saw their valuations fall into range.

Harding Loevner Global Small Companies Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Harding Loevner has been investing globally in high-quality, growing businesses based on disciplined industry research since 1989.
  • Stock markets fell in the quarter, as the world watched in horror Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • While we are optimistic that China will maintain its neutrality in the war, we can’t dismiss the possibility we are wrong. In that case, we’d need to parse which companies will be hurt and helped, relatively, from a further receding of globalization.
  • With the volatility of stock prices this quarter, portfolio activity picked up as a handful of high-quality growth companies we had long admired, but regarded astoo expensive, saw their valuations fall into range.

Harding Loevner International Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Harding Loevner has been investing globally in high-quality, growing businesses based on disciplined industry research since 1989.
  • Stock markets fell in the quarter, as the world watched in horror Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • While we are optimistic that China will maintain its neutrality in the war, we can’t dismiss the possibility we are wrong.
  • In recent years, as growth investors chased speculative and expensive“disruptive innovators” up, and more recently down, we have maintained a steady commitment to quality growth at steady premiums to the market over time.

Sporting Crypto – May 30th 2022: eBay Skate to where the puck is going

By Sporting Crypto

  • eBay have made their first foray into NFTs by launching Wayne Gretzky collectibles, starting as low as $10 for their ‘Green’ tier, ensuring affordability for the everyday fan.
  • They’ve partnered with OneOf, who help lifestyle and sports brands drop NFTs – as well as having their own marketplace for resale purposes.
  • Buyers were able to purchase in fiat and were then taken to a landing page to mint the NFT for free.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Splunk Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • 1QFY23 Revenue Growth Accelerated As Cloud-Driven Transformation Goes Well

1QFY23 Revenue Growth Accelerated As Cloud-Driven Transformation Goes Well

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Splunk Inc (SPLK US) , a leading American provider of machine-generated data platform and established software vendor, announced strong 1QFY23 earnings results. 
  • Total revenues grew to $674M, up 34% YoY, the highest revenue growth rate for the last 3 years. Cloud revenues jumped by 66%, reflecting customer adoption of the cloud platform.
  • WSJ reported that Cisco made a $20B+ takeover offer for Splunk. However, no deal was on the table, but if talks resume, Cisco could pay $20B+, according to The NYT.   

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Endava PLC, Apple Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Argosy Investors Q1 2022 Letter
  • Harding Loevner Global Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter

Argosy Investors Q1 2022 Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Argosy Investors is a fee-only investment adviser seeking to earn above-average returns through a risk-conscious approach that allows us to maintain significant amounts of cash if the conditions warrant, and to deploy capital quickly and aggressively when opportunities are more plentiful.
  • 2022 first quarter performance was -15.1% in select accounts.
  • Analyzing many businesses can be challenging, and could require a greater degree of conservatism in assessing likely sales and/or margin potential.

Harding Loevner Global Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Harding Loevner has been investing globally in high-quality, growing businesses based on disciplined industry research since 1989.
  • Stock markets fell in the quarter, as the world watched in horror Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • China-based WuXi Biologics illustrates the perfect storm of macro issues pressuring the share prices of our rapidly growing companies.
  • As questions mount whether globalization has reached a tipping point, companies are taking full advantage of the many advances occurring across the industrial automation landscape— propelling leadingp roviders of “Industry 4.0” solutions onto favorable growth paths.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Infomedia Ltd, Synnex Thailand, AIA Group Ltd, Lenovo and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Infomedia (IFM AU): Battery Ventures Sneaks In Above TA’s Proposal
  • Infomedia Receives a Competing A$1.75 Offer from Battery Ventures
  • SYNEX: Maintain Healthy 22E Growth Despite Uncertainties
  • Harding Loevner Emerging Markets Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter
  • Weekly Wrap – 27 May 2022

Infomedia (IFM AU): Battery Ventures Sneaks In Above TA’s Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Online auto parts and service provider Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU) has received a second non-binding proposal  – by way of a Scheme – this one from PE outfit Battery Ventures. 
  • The Offer price is A$1.75/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, and a A$0.05/share premium to TA/Viburnum’s proposal earlier this month. 
  • As with TA, Battery has been granted limited due diligence. With a 19.4% stake, TA remains very much in the driver’s seat.

Infomedia Receives a Competing A$1.75 Offer from Battery Ventures

By Arun George

  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU) disclosed an indicative non-binding proposal from Battery Ventures at A$1.75 a share, a 2.9% premium to TA/Viburnum’s offer of A$1.70 per share.
  • Infomedia is in preliminary discussions with several other interested parties. The other interested party is rumoured to be the auto software business OEConnection.
  • The situation is reminiscent of the ongoing bidding war for Virtus Health (VRT AU) between CapVest and BGH Capital. Expect at least another round of bids. 

SYNEX: Maintain Healthy 22E Growth Despite Uncertainties

By Pi Research

  • Maintain our BUY recommendation with TP of Bt29.75,derived from 27.0xPE’22 (+2SD of average 10-yr trading). Yesterday’s analyst meeting came out with neutral tone. While we are cautious of the inflationa
  • Management affirms that weakening consumer demand, shortages caused by China lockdowns and Russo-Ukrainian War, and weakening Baht will not impact SYNEX’s 2022 performance.
  • Management maintains their guidance of +15% revenue growth YoY in 2022, but admits post-2022 top-line growth will not match the levels seen during Covid period (2020-21).

Harding Loevner Emerging Markets Equity Fund Q1 2022 Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Harding Loevner has been investing globally in high-quality, growing businesses based on disciplined industry research since 1989.
  • Emerging Markets (EMs) declined sharply, primarily due to the collapse in Russian equities brought about by economic sanctions against Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine, as well as poor performance in China.
  • The EM landscape is currently fogged by an exceptional confluence of risks: armed conflict in Ukraine, inflation, rising interest rates, volatile commodity prices, and concerns about food and energy security.
  • Although we made only a handful of transactions this quarter, the portfolio’s profile changed significantly because of the write-down of our Russian holdings and the outsized returns of stocks benefiting from commodity price inflation.

Weekly Wrap – 27 May 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
  2. Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H
  3. Vedanta Resources
  4. Indika Energy
  5. Pakuwon Jati

and more…


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Renesas Electronics, Tencent, Appen Ltd, Mediatek Inc, Yanolja, Netflix Inc, Apple Inc, Snowflake Inc, Lenovo and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Methodology Change. Again. This Time Better But Still Not Good Enough
  • Hang Seng Index Constituents
  • Appen (APX AU): Telus’ Indicative Offer
  • Telus Revokes It’s A$9.50 Bid for Appen
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): The Smartphone Demand Could Further Decrease in 2022.
  • Launch Of Unlisted Korean Companies ETFs in 2023 & How Our Smartkarma Research Would Change
  • Tidefall Capital Management Q1 2022 Letter
  • Wedgewood Partners Large Cap Focused Growth Fund Q1 2022 Client Letter
  • Snowflake 1Q22 Earnings: 2029 Looks Good
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Bharti Airtel, Lenovo, Vedanta Resources

Nikkei 225 Methodology Change. Again. This Time Better But Still Not Good Enough

By Travis Lundy

  • The Nikkei Index Team has suggested a methodology change to the Nikkei 225 Average.
  • It involves capping stocks, creating a method for re-weighting once capped then stocks fall, and they recommend changing to a semi-annual Periodic Review – twice a year rather than once.
  • More interestingly, they also change the “High Liquidity” definition to be related to traded value not volume, which starts to favour higher-market cap stocks with more shares out.

Hang Seng Index Constituents

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The Hang Seng index constituents have moved away from just local Hong Kong shares to being dominated by China H and China-centric shares
  • Focusing on these constituents adds much value, especially with shifting liquidity away from US-listed ADS to HKEX listed shares.
  • It brings together a more diverse investor base ranging from local Hong Kong, mainland China and the rest of the world.

Appen (APX AU): Telus’ Indicative Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • AI data service provider Appen (APX AU) has announced an unsolicited, conditional, and non-binding indicative proposal from Canada’s Telus International, by way of a Scheme of Arrangement, at A$9.50/share.  
  • That’s around a 48% premium. Appen’s board is seeking an improvement in terms through offering a limited course of due diligence.
  • The Offer backs out an equity value of A$1.2bn, significantly down from Appen’s 2020 pandemic peak of A$5.4bn.

Telus Revokes It’s A$9.50 Bid for Appen

By Arun George

  • In response to media reports, Appen Ltd (APX AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from Telus International (TIXT US) at A$9.50, a 48.4% premium to the undisturbed price of A$6.40.
  • Appen also announced a weak trading update. The 1HFY22 EBITDA is expected to be materially lower than the comparable period due to the lower revenue and the ongoing investment. 
  • Subsequently, Appen noted that Telus revoked its indicative proposal. No reason was given for the decision. Nevertheless, Appen’s depressed share price will continue to attract suitors. 

MediaTek (2454.TT): The Smartphone Demand Could Further Decrease in 2022.

By Patrick Liao

  • MediaTek’s revised downward forecast for 650-680nm smartphone delivery in 1Q22 earnings conference, but we think that number could be revised down again by the end of July.
  • MediaTek announced new WiFi products, Filogic 880 and 380, in COMPUTEX2022 on May 24-27. Besides, MediaTek invests in new opportunities for AI in the US.
  • The mainland China fights fiercely against COVID-19 and stays at the Zero Policy. 

Launch Of Unlisted Korean Companies ETFs in 2023 & How Our Smartkarma Research Would Change

By Douglas Kim

  • There is a strong possibility of the launch of corporate growth fund private companies ETFs in Korea in 2023. 
  • Once government gives final approval to launch the unlisted Korean companies ETFs in 2023, there is likely to be much greater interest in investing and researching in private Korean companies.
  • Starting next year, there is a strong probability that we will spend a lot more time on researching and writing about these promising, private companies in Korea. 

Tidefall Capital Management Q1 2022 Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Tidefall is a concentrated, unconstrained investment fund that attempts to compound its capital at an attractive rate of return. Our investment advantage comes from our in-depth research, long-term time horizon and appreciation of biases.
  • With Netflix stock down by more than 50% since its high in November (and 10% below Reed Hastings’ $20m purchase in January) we re-entered the position in April.
  • We believe the current price of Netflix shares creates a compelling long term investment opportunity.

Wedgewood Partners Large Cap Focused Growth Fund Q1 2022 Client Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Wedgewood Partners is a money manager founded in 1988 with the goal of providing investors with a superior approach to managing investment portfolios.
  • For the first quarter 2022, our Composite (net)i declined -10.6%.
  • We expect to be busy this year as all financial markets come to grips with the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented task of reigning in 40-year highs in inflation with two monetary tightening tools.

Snowflake 1Q22 Earnings: 2029 Looks Good

By Aaron Gabin

  • Ignore the slight macro weakness from consumer facing internet companies in April. It is irrelevant for the LT model. 
  • Snowflake upped its LT (FY2029) targets: $10B in revenues, growing 30%, 78% product margins, 20% operating margins, and 25% adjusted FCF margins.
  • At 12x forward revenues, Snowflake’s valuation is…dare we say… cheap?

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Bharti Airtel, Lenovo, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Appen Ltd, NetEase Inc, United Microelectronics Corp, Iljin Materials, Pushpay Holdings, DFNN Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Appen (APX AU): Telus’ 48% Premium; 10% Short Interest; Potential ASX200 Deletion
  • NetEase (9999 HK): Steady Without New Games in 1Q22 and New Games in Pipeline, Buy
  • UMC (UMC.US; 2303.TT): 3Q22 Order Is Full- The Demand from Asia Is Turning Weak, but US Is Stronger
  • Iljin Materials: Is the Potential Change in Compulsory Tender Offer Forcing Owner to Speed Up Sale?
  • BGH and Sixth Street to Lob an Offer for Pushpay?
  • Penny Stock Philippine Tech Gambling Company DFNN Has First Mover Position in Fast Recovering Market

Appen (APX AU): Telus’ 48% Premium; 10% Short Interest; Potential ASX200 Deletion

By Brian Freitas

  • Telus International (TIXT US) has made an unsolicited, conditional and non-binding indicative proposal to acquire 100% of Appen Ltd (APX AU) at A$9.5/share, valuing the company at A$1.17bn.
  • The offer is a 48% premium to the last close but a discount to longer-term VWAPs. It should require a bump for the Appen Board to unanimously recommend to shareholders.
  • Appen Ltd (APX AU) is a potential deletion from the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the June rebalance. Short interest is 10% of shares out. There will be covering.

NetEase (9999 HK): Steady Without New Games in 1Q22 and New Games in Pipeline, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue grew by 15% YoY and operating margin improved YoY in 1Q22.
  • The authorities began to grant licenses and new games will be launched in China and overseas.
  • We set an upside of 25% and a price target at US$120. Buy.

UMC (UMC.US; 2303.TT): 3Q22 Order Is Full- The Demand from Asia Is Turning Weak, but US Is Stronger

By Patrick Liao

  • We believe UMC’s 3Q22 order is full, but the growth could be within 3% QoQ.
  • Asian clients are turning weak, and US clients are getting stronger.
  • The mainland China demand could be making an impact because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Iljin Materials: Is the Potential Change in Compulsory Tender Offer Forcing Owner to Speed Up Sale?

By Douglas Kim

  • Heo Jae-Myeong, the CEO of Iljin Materials, is planning to sell his 53.3% stake in the company.
  • Potential buyers of Iljin Materials include Lotte, SK, LG, and POSCO.
  • The CEO Heo Jae-Myung could potentially receive greater amounts of money if he sells the company now, rather than waiting when the compulsory tender offer could be made into law.

BGH and Sixth Street to Lob an Offer for Pushpay?

By Arun George

  • Sixth Street and BGH Capital entered into a cooperation agreement with the aim to acquire Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) through a scheme of arrangement. They have a combined 20.3% stake. 
  • In addition to Sixth Street/BGH, Pushpay also noted expressions of interest from multiple parties. The high recurring revenue, profitability and cash generation make it a target. 
  • As the Australian takeover premium ranges from 20% to 40%, we think that a bid of at least A$1.46 (30% takeover premium) will be necessary for due diligence access. 

Penny Stock Philippine Tech Gambling Company DFNN Has First Mover Position in Fast Recovering Market

By Howard J Klein

  • Launched in late 2020, inPlay.ph is the first pure play online real money gambling platform aimed at attacking revenue of illegal sites.
  • DFNN is also licensed for electronic gaming machines, a sports betting exchange and pari-mutuel betting for the government run Pagcor sector.
  • Income from interactive tech platforms including the online gaming unit increased 116.6% for the quarter to 229.3m php.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Grab, Snap Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr, Hana Micron Inc, Webzen Inc, Kuaishou Technology, Samsung Electronics, Freshworks and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab (GRAB US) – Rolling Recovery in Motion
  • Snapchat Guidedown: Overdone, But Buy FB/AMZN First
  • Smartkarma Webinar | 2022 Semiconductor Outlook
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: A Dozen Changes in June
  • Grab IPO Lock-Up – Over 60% of the Stock Worth Nearly US$8bn Comes Free
  • KOSDAQ 150 Rebalancing Results: Passive Flows & Basket Trading Candidates
  • Kuaishou – Continued Drop in Operating Losses with Upside Potential
  • Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q22, Strong Revenue and Shrinking Loss, 19% Upside
  • 3 Major Reasons Why Samsung and KOSPI Are Outperforming Other Global Peers & Country Equity Indices
  • Freshworks: Solid 1Q and Strong Outlook Despite Delays With Closing Deals in Europe

Grab (GRAB US) – Rolling Recovery in Motion

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab‘s latest results sent a mixed message and if looked at YoY the picture looks gloomy but there is a strong sequential recovery with declining incentives for deliveries.
  • Mobility is seeing recovery with higher incentives to bring on drivers and consumers but these should start to decline in 2H2022, with company guidance for revenues reflecting this. 
  • Grab continues to build its financial services offering through digital payments coupled with BNPL, and growing a digital banking footprint. Valuations are attractive and it has US$8.2bn in cash liquidity.

Snapchat Guidedown: Overdone, But Buy FB/AMZN First

By Aaron Gabin

  • Snapchat’s guidedown resulting in a 30% drawdown is fantastical.  6x sales is now 4x sales, near alltime lows.
  • Was guide down worth 30% drawdown given already valuation compression and  volatility of Snap guidance? Sour grapes here.
  • Of course macro deteriorated. Who is doing Snap’s forecasting? We think forecasting easier to fix than LT competitive moat. We’d buy SNAP…but buy FB first!

Smartkarma Webinar | 2022 Semiconductor Outlook

By Smartkarma Research

In our next Webinar, we welcome Analyst Patrick Liao, who will go over his picks among Greater China semiconductor companies, exploring the outlook for the rest of 2022 and beyond.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 1 June 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Patrick Liao is a Senior Analyst focusing on technology and the Greater China semiconductor industry. He was an Asia Semiconductor Analyst for IDC and spent almost a decade on the sell-side at firms like JP Morgan, Nomura, and Macquarie. Before that, he worked at Taiwan-based semiconductor companies for around 11 years, having filed several US patents during his time in the industry.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: A Dozen Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 12 inclusions and 12 exclusions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance to be implemented at the close on 9 June.
  • Most of the inclusions were expected, but there are quite a few surprises among the deletions. The impact on the deletions will be higher than that on the inclusions.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been another leg up in the last couple of weeks. Expect the trend to continue till implementation week.

Grab IPO Lock-Up – Over 60% of the Stock Worth Nearly US$8bn Comes Free

By Sumeet Singh

  • Grab raised around US$4.5bn in its de-SPAC listing in Dec 2021. The shares are now trading around 68% below the listing price.
  • At the time of listing, all of its top investors were locked up for six months. The lock-up expires on 30th May 2022.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

KOSDAQ 150 Rebalancing Results: Passive Flows & Basket Trading Candidates

By Sanghyun Park

  • The additions are primarily in line with the predictions. But, the deletions contain many surprises. Webzen is the biggest surprise. Echo Marketing should also surprise a lot of fund trackers.
  • Creas F&C will face the most substantial passive inflow at 4.08x ADTV, closely followed by Unitest. But factoring in liquidity, WYSIWYG Studios will likely draw the most attention
  • JNTC will suffer the most among the deletions. However, Webzen will likely be in the limelight as its outflow is by far the largest at ₩8.6B, equivalent to 3.84x ADTV.

Kuaishou – Continued Drop in Operating Losses with Upside Potential

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Kuaishou reported 1Q2022 results on Tuesday. Revenue grew 23.8% YoY to RMB21.1bn while reported operating losses declined to RMB5.6bn (27% of revenue) from RMB7.3bn (43% of revenues) in 1Q2021.
  • Adjusted operating losses for the quarter further dropped to 24% of revenues from 48% of revenues in 1Q2021 despite drop in livestreaming ARPPU in 1Q2022.
  • Kuaishou’s shares have lost almost 80% since its IPO in February last year due to the regulatory crackdown.

Kuaishou (1024 HK): 1Q22, Strong Revenue and Shrinking Loss, 19% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • Revenue increased by 24% YoY with online marketing, the main business, up 33% YoY.
  • KS operating loss decreased to RMB5.1 bn in 1Q22 from RMB8.2 bn.
  • We set an upside of 19% and a price target of HK$75.00. Buy.

3 Major Reasons Why Samsung and KOSPI Are Outperforming Other Global Peers & Country Equity Indices

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the curious share price movements this year has been the outperformance of Samsung Electronics versus other global tech peers including Apple, TSMC, Intel, and Xiaomi.
  • Three reasons why Samsung is outperforming global peers such as Apple and TSMC may due to a potential war in Taiwan, COVID lockdown in Shanghai, and new pro-business Korean President.
  • Caution is warranted on playing long/short on Samsung, Apple, and TSMC in the coming months as their tides appear to be driven too much by the whims of global politics. 

Freshworks: Solid 1Q and Strong Outlook Despite Delays With Closing Deals in Europe

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Freshworks (FRSH US)  upgraded its revenue guidance to ~$502M at the top end for FY22 and reported a 42% year-over-year revenue growth rate in 1QFY22. 
  • We were impressed with subscription revenue growth, lower-than-expected loss, customer expansion, and efficient SaaS metrics. 
  • We analyzed multiples of 50 publicly listed software companies with various growth profiles and split SaaS/Fintech companies into four growth groups.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Bitcoin, Sunny Optical, Delhivery, Next Chip, Intel Corp, Mindtree Ltd, Hana Microelectronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Biweekly – After UST, Is USDT Next to Fall?
  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds, Deletes & Capping Changes
  • Delhivery IPO Trading – Anchor Book Was Good but Overall Demand Was Still Tepid
  • Next Chip IPO Preview
  • Long Intel/Short AMD; Analysis of Technical Publications Suggests TSMC Will Play a Critical Role
  • S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022
  • HANA: Robust EV Demand Will Offset Global Smartphone Decline

Crypto Biweekly – After UST, Is USDT Next to Fall?

By Josh Du

  • The collapse of UST/LUNA wiped out nearly USD50bn of market capitalization last week due to a poorly structured stable-coin design and threw the crypto markets into chaos
  • A potentially bigger risk looms on the horizon as USDT’s collateral is questioned as market test its ability to meet redemption requests
  • USDT is a USD70bn stablecoin, 5x as large as UST, and underpins the entire crypto infrastructure. This is the critical space to watch for the future of crypto. 

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds, Deletes & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas


Delhivery IPO Trading – Anchor Book Was Good but Overall Demand Was Still Tepid

By Sumeet Singh

  • Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.
  • Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics. 

Next Chip IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Next Chip (396270 KS) is getting ready for an IPO in Korea in June. The IPO price range is from 9,900 won to 11,600 won.
  • Next Chip is a Korean system semiconductor company for automobiles and autonomous vehicles. Next Chip was split from NC& Co Ltd (092600 KS) in January 2019.
  • The bankers used four companies including Abov Semiconductor (102120 KS), MCNEX Co Ltd (097520 KS), Chips & Media, and Telechips as comps for Next Chip Co.

Long Intel/Short AMD; Analysis of Technical Publications Suggests TSMC Will Play a Critical Role

By Pyari Menon

  • Relative underperformance of Intel Corp (INTC US)  versus Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)  over the last decade should reverse.  We discuss what it would take in the note.
  • Intel leads in number and quality of innovations versus AMD in core areas of Design and Manufacturing, but AMD’s use of TSMC has been a huge part of AMD’s outperformance
  • If Intel adapts to new realities and uses TSMC (2330 TT)  for next-gen products, outperformance versus AMD is highly likely otherwise given TSMC’s very significant lead in manufacturing very doubtful. 

S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • After market close on Friday 20th May 2022, the constituency changes for S&P BSE 100, SENSEX 50, and SENSEX Next 50 Indices were announced. 
  • There will be no changes for S&P BSE SENSEX and S&P BSE BANKEX Indices in the June 2022 Rebalance. 
  • These changes will become effective at the open of Monday 20th June 2022. Below is a closer look at each of the names involved in the June 2022 Rebalance.

HANA: Robust EV Demand Will Offset Global Smartphone Decline

By Pi Research

  • Analyst meeting came out with negative tone. We maintain BUY rating at Bt57.50, based on 21.3xPE’22 (+1SD of 10-yr trading average). Our TP and 22E downwards earnings revisal by 6% 
  • 2Q22 should be lowest of the year due to declining sales from decrease by 25% in output in Chinese factories.Recommend accumulating shares,due to attractive valuations, prior to 2H22 earnings recovery.
  • 2H22 earnings will recover from GPM expansion from revenue contribution from new SiC segment (consistently gross loss until now)and better product mix in IC Thai factory.Sales should also grow moderately 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma