Equity Capital Markets

NIO (9866 HK) is looking to raise around US$450m via a primary placement in Hong Kong.
The shares haven’t done much this year or ever since they were listed.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

2. The Hidden Play in Hanwha’s Noisy Stake Reshuffling: Hanwha Corp’s Rights Issue

Hanwha Corp’s chances of raising 1T KRW without a capital call are slim, likely channeling Hanwha Energy’s 1.3T KRW into Hanwha Corp intead of Hanwha Aero.
A shareholder-allotted rights issue from Hanwha Corp looks likely, and with short-selling resumption, it sets up a clean arbitrage play with low risk before the official announcement.
Timing is key—Hanwha’s using debt for now, but likely won’t delay long. Expect Hanwha Corp’s rights issue to follow Hanwha Aero’s, probably between June and July.

3. Revisiting Korea’s Local Rights Issue Arb Setup

Korea’s rights issues offer a clean arb setup—track stock rights vs. spot price, with first price as a cap, and lock in predictable entry vs. exit costs.
Aggressive locals skip hedging, betting the discount holds between final pricing and listing. History backs it, but it’s a case-by-case call—not a blanket recommendation.
Samsung SDI and Hanwha Aerospace’s KRW 5.5T raise is massive, likely flooding stock rights into the market—prime setup for arb plays.

4. Xiaomi US$5.3bn Placement – Relatively Small, Strong Momentum but Is Expensive

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.3bn via selling 3% additional shares.
The shares have done exceedingly well this year and are now trading at their all time highs.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

5. Ecopro Materials: Announces A Capital Raise Worth 389 Billion Won

EcoPro Materials announced a capital raise worth 389 billion won. The company plans to issue 5.12 million new shares, representing 7.3% of its current outstanding shares (69.74 million).
This capital raise is in the form of redeemable convertible preferred shares (RCPS). Conversion price of this RCPS is 75,974 won which is 9.9% higher than current price.
Ecopro Materials’ share price is down 27% from 27 February 2025. We continue to remain negative on Ecopro Materials.

6. LG Electronics India IPO: It’s A Big Deal. Potential Pricing and Valuation Preview

By Devi Subhakesan, Investory

LG Electronics India has secured regulatory approval for its IPO, expected to raise between USD 1 to 1.5 billion.
However, it remains unclear whether the company will delay the launch until market sentiment shows further improvement.
LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPO is a 100% offer for sale by parent and hence the entire proceeds from the IPO will accrue to LG Electronics (066570 KS).

7. A/H Premiums and past A/H Listings Performance Data – Mixed Results but Size Matters

Given the slew of A/H offerings in the Hong Kong IPO pipeline, in this note, we talk about the overall A/H premiums currently.
We also had a quick look at the past A/H listing performance, including subscription rates and A/H premiums at the time of listing.
Overall, most of the A/H listings haven’t done much in the near term, with a few exceptions.

8. Gigabyte GDR Early Look – Benefitting from the AI Server Wave, Further Scale-Up Underway

Gigabyte Technology (2376 TT) is looking to raise up to US$395m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
On 14th Mar 2025, Gigabyte announced that it received its board’s approval to sell upto 50m common shares via a GDR offering. The proceeds will be used for business development.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.

9. Lotte Global Logistics IPO Preview

Lotte Global Logistics is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in May 2025. IPO price range is from 11,500 won and 13,500 won.
At the high end of the IPO price range, the expected public offering amount is 202 billion won.
According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap after the IPO is 479 billion won to 562 billion won.

10. DN Solutions IPO: Valuation Insights

DN Solutions (298440 KS), the third-largest machining centre/turning centre machine tool manufacturer, seeks to raise US$1.1 billion in a KRX IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in DN Solutions IPO: The Bull Case and DN Solutions IPO: The Bear Case.
I examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. My analysis suggests that DN Solutions is palatable in the low end of the IPO price range.

Mar 23

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Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Mar 23, 2025

By Smartkarma Content | Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles

Market sees this as an M&A play, not just de-leveraging. Sentiment’s split, and despite a tight discount, uncertainty on take-up could spark major dislocations in stock and rights.
Hanwha’s ₩3.6T raise drops just a week after Samsung SDI’s ₩2T—₩5.5T back-to-back. Absorption looks brutal, setting up serious volatility and prime trading opps if liquidity tightens.
The FSC fast-tracked this, flagging it instantly but also hinting approval. With regulator risk off, any cash market snapback tomorrow should stay in check.

2. JX Advance Metals IPO Trading – Demand Wasn’t Great

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

3. Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won (US$2.5 billion), which is the largest ever rights offering capital raise in Korea.
We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher concerns about shares dilution at Hanwha Aerospace and negatively impact its share price.
It is also likely to have a significant negative impact on the entire Korean defense stocks, as it signals a top on this sector.

4. JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) priced its IPO at JPY820 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.5 billion. The shares will start trading on 19 March.
Relevant notes: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair.
Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the price is fair.

5. JX Advanced Metals IPO Trading

JX Advanced Metals raised 438.6 billion yen (US$3 billion) on its IPO offering after pricing the IPO at 820 yen per share, valuing the company at 761.3 billion yen.
Our base case valuation of JX Advanced Metals is price per share of 863 yen, based on P/E of 9.9x using our estimated net profit of 81 billion yen (2026E).
Therefore, we would sell into strength if the share price of JX Advanced Metals rises to the 863 yen to 1,044 yen per share.

6. CoreWeave (CRWV): Valuation, Cash Raise Lighter than Expected as Company Pushes Ahead with IPO

CoreWeave (CRWV US) officially set terms for an IPO on Thursday morning coming in with a valuation and cash raise that was much lower than previously reported.
Furthermore, the underwriters placed a wider-than-normal spread on the range, $47-$55. This insinuates a negotiation process between the buy-side.
The valuation coming in lower than anticipated will allow investors to put money to work at a more attractive risk-reward profile.

7. DN Solutions IPO: OC’s Out, but the Hit-And-Run Setup Post-Listing Is Still in Play

Wild card here is the FSS—they’re eyeing a shadow listing risk for DN Automotive (007340 KS). If they push for a revision, a 2-week delay busts the 135-day limit.
14x PE looks cheap, but comps are shaky—LS Electric’s AI play, Fanuc’s scale advantage, and DMG MORI’s automation pivot all make direct comparisons a stretch.
DN Solutions is a pure-play machine tool name, making comps shaky. This IPO’s shaping up like an LG CNS rerun—solid numbers, fair valuation, but a weak growth story.

8. Judo Capital Placement – Clean up but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

Bain and GIC looking to raise US$130m by selling their remaining stake in Judo Capital (JDO AU).
The deal will be a large one to digest at 30.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 9.2% of its shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

9. DN Solutions Pre-IPO – The Positives – Growing Market Share

DN Solutions (298440 KS) (DNS) aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its Korea IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
DNS is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine tools and the business of automation solutions and services related thereto.
In this note, we talk about the company’s past performance.

10. Nanshan Aluminium IPO: Orphaned Security with Margin Risk

Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK) is looking to raise up to US$358m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
NA is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia. The firm sources bauxite domestically in Indonesia and utilizes low-temperature Bayer process.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

Mar 16

0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Mar 16, 2025

By Smartkarma Content | Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Samsung SDI Capital Raise: A Mega Deal Rarely Seen in the Local Market

The discount’s tight, but this near-2-trillion-won raise is a rare mega-deal in Korea, despite the issuance ratio below 20%.
Samsung Electronics is in for 150 billion won, but plenty of supply remains. A smooth clearance? Unlikely. This could drive stock rights costs lower as price discovery unfolds.
The optimal approach is to wait for a decline in rights prices and assess hedge costs through single stock futures (or TRS, if doable), given the shorting restrictions.

2. ECM Weekly (10th Mar 2025) – BYD, Japan Post, Mixue, Sanhua, Chifeng, Nanshan, Goertek, Travel Food

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Mixue Group (2097 HK) provided some much needed relief to the HK tea chains, Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) might not do the same this week.
On the placements front, BYD (1211 HK)‘s jumbo offering has been doing well, while Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) hasn’t been correcting much.

3. Recruit Holdings Placement – Relatively Small US$520m Deal but Momentum Is Weak

An undisclosed seller is looking to raise around US$520m via selling 0.5% of its stake in Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) .
We have covered a number of placements in the stock over the past few years, most of which have ended up doing well.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

4. MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE’s IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.
However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.
We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.

5. Initial Thoughts on the Hanwha Energy IPO

Hanwha Energy, which is 100% owned by the Hanwha Group owner family members, has started the process of going public. Hanwha Energy could complete its IPO in 2025/2026.
One of the scenarios involving Hanwa Energy is that once it completes its IPO, it could merge with Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS).
Hanwha Energy generated revenue of 4.7 trillion won (up 20% YoY) and operating profit of 215 billion won (up 306.5% YoY).

6. AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing – Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.
As of FY24, AP had over 25,000 customers who rely on its Confidence Platform to prepare, secure, and optimize their critical data across environments.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

7. Chifeng Jilong A/H Trading – Weak Institutional Demand and Probably Close to Fair Value

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH) , a gold mining company in China, raised around US$363m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
It operates six gold mines in Asia and Africa and has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2004.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

8. Austal Placement: Thematically Hot, Relatively Low Valuation

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is looking to raise US$157m, with US$125m from a primary placement and the remainder, a secondary placement contingent on the primary being fully subscribed.
The deal will be a large one to digest at 58 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 15.3% of its shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

9. Anjoy Foods Group A/H Listing – A Leader in a Fragmented Industry

Anjoy Foods Group (603345 CH), a quick-frozen food company in China, aims to raise around US$300m in its H-share listing.
AFG was the largest quick-frozen food company in China in terms of revenue in 2023, with a market share of 6.2%, according to the Frost & Sullivan report.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

10. DN Solutions IPO Preview

DN Solutions is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in May 2025. The IPO price range is from 65,000 won to 89,700 won.
The book building for the institutional investors will last from 22 to 28 April. The expected IPO offering amount is from 1.14 trillion won to 1.57 trillion won.
The IPO price range is based on DN Solutions’ net profit of 317.4 billion won, P/E of 25.2x, and IPO discount rates of 29.1% to 48.6%.

Mar 09

0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Mar 9, 2025

By Smartkarma Content | Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size, past Deals Have Done Well

BYD (1211 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.2bn via selling 4% additional shares.
The company has undertaken a few deals before and they have ended up performing well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

2. Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders

This 40% rule will distort bookbuilding, force down-pricing, choke float post-listing, and amplify volatility.
Offshore investors like us benefit most—cheap IPO pricing with no lock-up. Local brokers see this as a giveaway to foreign funds and pushed back hard last Friday.
FSS won’t budge—40% lock-up is happening. If issues arise post-implementation, they might adjust later.

3. Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about updates and look at discounts vs performance for past secondary deals.

4. JX Advance Metals IPO – Digestable, but Not Really Attractive

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

5. JX Advanced Metals IPO Preview

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is seeking to raise about ¥460 billion in the upcoming IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The indicative IPO price is ¥862 per share.
The final IPO pricing will be on 10 March. JX Advanced Metals will be listed on 19 March. Eneos is selling as many as 534.9 million shares in the IPO.
The company has a strong customer base. It is a key supplier to TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron for sputtering targets and high-purity metals.

6. Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings

The Offering of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is not taking place the way “the right pattern” would suggest, but last time was kind of special. This time is different.
Last time was a “second IPO” and coincided with a US regional bank crisis. This time the offering is smaller outright, and much smaller as a portion of float.
Pricing is Monday. It hasn’t moved much vs JPH. It needs to move more to be attractive. And there is still a bit of overhang to come.

7. Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

Since the offer announcement, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.
To understand JPB’s trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)/JPI’s 2019 offering, and Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering.
JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.

8. Chifeng Jilong A/H Listing: Why Not Own International Peers Instead?

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH) , a gold mining company in China, is now looking to raise up to US$419m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
It operates six gold mines in Asia and Africa and has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2004.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

9. JX Advanced Metals IPO Valuation Analysis

On 3 March, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) announced that the IPO will be offered at ¥810 to ¥820 per share (down from the initial indicative price of ¥862 per share).
Our base case valuation per share is ¥863 which is 5.8% higher than the mid-point of the expected IPO price range of ¥810 to ¥820 per share.
Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative view of this JX Advanced Metal IPO.

10. JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has announced an IPO price range of JPY810-820 per share, which is 6.0%-4.9% below the IPO reference price range of JPY862.
Relevant notes – JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights.
My SoTP valuation of JPY860 is modestly above the IPO price range, suggesting that the price range is fair.

Mar 02

0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Mar 2, 2025

By Smartkarma Content | Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Japan Post Bank (7182) – Report of ¥600bn Offer Would Lead to Index Flows, and a New Future

On 22-February-2023 a Reuters suggested JPH (6178) had “started talks” to sell a big stake in JP Bank (7182). Five days later they announced a complicated deal discussed here.
Today, an article suggests Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will sell ¥600bn in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) to get ownership below 50% (as with JPI). A buyback might appear.
JPB has issued a “there’s smoke” release. Like last time. Expected unwind of known overhang means minimal surprise here. The question is whether they could surprise (big buyback? capital plan?).

2. Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang

The Offering comes in lighter than expected. The buyback is smaller than expected. The resultant overhang is larger than expected.
The index flows around the delivery date are well-understood. They are what they are.
Shareholder structure is such that this is not quite a new IPO but needs a lot of new shareholders. BUT… there is one redeeming feature one should not ignore.

3. Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 416.1 million shares (including overallotment), worth around US$4.2 billion.
The offering includes a ToSTNeT-3 and an on-market buyback. Including the overallotment, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will reduce its stake from 61.50% to 50.00% of voting rights.
Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH’s past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10 March.

4. We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO

By Andrei Zakharov

We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.

5. Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

6. Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holding (6178 JP)’s Rumoured Offering

Reuters reports that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) is planning to sell shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), which could total some JPY600 billion (US$4.0 billion).
The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025.
The potential offering is relatively smaller than JPB’s 2023 offering. Compared to its peers, JPB’s valuation remains undemanding.

7. Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA, LightStream Research

With this new rule, the FSS is flagging shaky rights offerings early, signaling a likely correction request—and often, the first step toward the deal getting axed.
Spot the red flags early and use the window before the FSS drops the hammer to position for a reversal play.
The FSS’s early notice makes a reversal likely as traders bet on the deal getting nuked after the initial disclosure drop.

8. JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway

JX Advance Metals, a unit of Japanese oil giant ENEOS plans to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. ENEOS will sell down a part of its stake and raise US$3.0bn.
Having split from the parent ENEOS, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality.
The company’s earnings declined in FY03/2024, however, 9MFY03/2025 results show that earnings are on a recovery driven by improving demand coupled with structural reforms undertaken by the company.

9. Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains

Premier Energies raised around US$337m after pricing the deal at the top end of the range in Sep 2024. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
Premier Energies is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

10. Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – The IPO Is Attractively Priced

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers such as Guming and Baicha Baidao Industrial. A comfortable valuation range is 18-20 P/E, higher than peers. So, the IPO pricing is attractive.
2024 full-year net profit is HK$4.8 billion.Net profit could reach HK$5.7 billion (up 19% YoY), HK$6.6 billion (up 16% YoY), HK$7.6 billion (up 15% YoY) in 2025, 2026, 2027, respectively.
Since Nongfu Spring’s revenue scale/net profit margin is higher than MIXUE, MIXUE’s valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. Investors need to be alert to the post-IPO performance growth pressure.

Feb 23

0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Feb 23, 2025

By Smartkarma Content | Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…

After a minor “disaster” in a secondary placement in December, this morning industrial/infrastructure (including data centres) REIT/etc Goodman Group (GMG AU) announced results and an A$4bn primary offering.
The large offering comes at a 6.9% discount, and For a combination of reasons, there is a LOT of buying to do with index tracking over the next short while.
But that too has complications. Some is immediate. Some a little delayed. A bunch may be supplied by short sellers. There is one easy trade. A few more complicated.

2. Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block – AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support

SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) does a business in AI Cloud&Consulting for the real estate, finance, and Life & Healthcare business. Sony Corp (6758 JP) is selling a stake.
The offering is for about US$50mm assuming a 10% discount today’s close. It is not clear how much this was expected but there is a decent-sized short position.
The stock has its ups and downs, and recently decided it liked Q3 earnings and guidance. That bodes well for the offering.

3. JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Positives – Transforming

JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

4. Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting

Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

5. JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Isn’t There Yet

JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

6. JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
JXAM is a wholly owned subsidiary of ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP). After the listing, it is expected to become an equity-method affiliate of ENEOS.
The bull case rests on its leading market position, focus businesses’ improving performance, improving profitability, shift to cash generation, and low leverage.

7. MIXUE Group IPO: The Leading Player that Justifies a Premium

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group (MIX HK) has a whopping market share of 32.7% in 2023, based on number of cups sold. It also has the highest profit in the sector.
With a strong profit record and net cash, it is a leader that captures industry growth. Its extensive network targets low-tier cities’ potential and the franchise model drives expansion.
It justifies trading on a premium to sector average PER of 19.6x for FY25. If aligning P/B with ROE on the best-fit line, it should be priced at 5.1x pre-money.

8. Sotetsu Holdings (9003) – Crossholders Sell Down – Big ADV Multiple, Low Earnings Multiple, Boring

Sotetsu Holdings (9003 JP) today announced a large-ish secondary equity offering – 10% of shares out and 20% of Max Real World Float.
This is crossholders selling down roughly 30% of what they own. Sotetsu announced a buyback for a quarter of the offering over the next six months.
The shareholder structure and distribution within Max Real World Float tells you all you need to know.

9. Tsumura (4540 JP) Equity Offering – Easy To Swallow, and Not Expensive

Tsumura & Co (4540 JP) shocked everyone a year ago when they announced an immediate large price hike across the board for its kampo medicines. The stock was +35% immediately.
It did not fall back. Now the stock is up 60% from a year ago and earnings are too. It’s still <10x PER. Now we get a ¥10bn secondary offering.
It’s 12 days of ADV but not super heavy, and there is a buyback on the back end.

10. Hexaware Technologies IPO Trading – Very Strong Anchor, Very Poor Overall

Hexaware Technologies raised around US$1bn in its India IPO, while its anchor book was strong, overall coverage was not.
Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Feb 16

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Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Feb 16, 2025

By Smartkarma Content | Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA has had Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) on his watchlist. He wrote on 6 Feb 2025 in his TOPIX Who Is Ready piece he expected Q1 inclusion.
He also noted that an equity offering might be required. Monday, we got a forecast revision (upward) for the year ended 31 January, an equity offering, and TOPIX inclusion.
The equity offering proposed is large enough one could consider it a “Second IPO”. This matters in terms of absorption and in thinking about the TOPIX Inclusion event.

2. CATL IPO Listing in Hong Kong Preview

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong exchange. CATL is expected to raise at least US$5 billion.
CATL maintained its 36.8% share in the global EV battery market in 2023 and January to November 2024. CATL has excellent fundamentals and improving profit margins.
Major risk factors include additional tariffs by the US, recent addition to Pentagon’s blacklist, declining sales in 2024, and lower government subsidies for EVs globally.

3. CATL A/H Listing – IPO Filing Updates

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about updates from its most recent filings.

4. Takasago Thermal Engineering Offering (1969) – Small Start to Larger Unwind

Takasago Thermal Engineering (1969 JP) reported Q3 earnings today. Revs up tiny yoy over 9m. OP +13%, Net +18.2%. Progression a bit behind guidance for full-year (but guidance unchanged)
Orders received and carried forward a record high. Margins up. DX/etc investments up. Crossholdings down but still HUGE outbound/in-bound. Goal is to shrink from 20% of net assets to 15%.
Today the company announced some crossholders would sell ~5% of shares out, and the company would launch a buyback for half that. Meh…

5. Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small

Mizuho Bank is looking to raise US$151m from selling some of its stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP).
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

6. MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins

Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we talk about updates from its recent filings.

7. Hexaware Technologies IPO – Not Cheap on Its Own, but Peers Are Trading a Lot Higher

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) is looking to raise US$1bn from its India IPO.
Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
In this note, we discuss its RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

8. Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
We previously discussed the IPO in Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case and Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs674-708 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

9. Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

10. ECM Weekly (10th Feb 2025) – Haitian, Guming, LG CNS, Dr Agarwal, Ola, Brainbees, Kaynes, Whirlpool

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, neither of the two listings performed last week, while more are lining up to list across the region.
On the placements front, given the ongoing earnings season there weren’t any deals. We did look at lockups and other possible upcoming deals.

Feb 09

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Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Feb 9, 2025

By Smartkarma Content | Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Guming Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.

2. LG CNS IPO: Trading Debut

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) priced its IPO at KRW61,900 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$820 million. The shares will start trading on 5 February.
We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case, LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case and LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights.
Since the prospectus’s release, the peers have marginally re-rated. The valuation remains undemanding at the IPO price, and bullish grey market prices suggest a strong debut.

3. Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case and Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

4. LG CNS IPO Trading – Demand Aided by Domestics, Limited Lockup Undertaking

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) raised around US$825m in its Korea IPO. LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company.
LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

5. LG CNS: First Day Trading Strategy Post IPO

In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of LG CNS which starts trading on 5 February.
On the first day of trading, we believe LG CNS’s shares could trade at higher levels, overshooting its intrinsic valuations.
We recommend investors to take some profits off the table if the share price shoots higher by 30% to 50%+ from the IPO price on the first day.

6. Guming IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Is It Time to Sip or Skip?

By Devi Subhakesan, Investory

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is offering 158.6 million shares in a price range of HK$8.68 to HK$9.94 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$1.58 Bn.
Despite outperforming peers in revenue and profit growth, Guming is grappling with a bleak macro environment, operational slowdowns, and intensified competition.
Guming Holdings (GUM HK) ‘s faltering operating metrics for last reporting period cast doubt on its near-term growth and profitability outlook—leaving investors to ask: Sip or skip?

7. ECM Weekly (3rd Feb 2025) – Seoul Guarantee, Dr Agarwal’s, Ather Energy, Hexaware, Visen Pharma

By Daniel Hellberg, Tracking Traffic

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we had a look at the valuations for Dr. Agarwal’s Eye Hospital and Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS).
On the placements front, given the holiday shortened week, there were no placements this week.

8. Trump Admin’s Tariff Headlines Obscure Suspension Of “De Minimis” Rule | Big Impact on SHEIN, Temu

By executive order, President Trump suspended section 321 (“de minimis“) imports on Feb 4th
Direct-To-Consumer imports valued at < US$800 may no longer enter the US duty-free
Added cost and new paperwork burden (both borne by US consumers) to hit SHEIN, Temu

9. Whirlpool of India OFS Early Look – Another Large Selldown by Parent

Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) is looking to raise about INR 46bn (US$530m) from selling a stake of about 31% in Whirlpool of India Limited (WHIRL).
In an announcement released on Jan 30, 2025, the firm mentioned its ultimate parent’s intention to sell down its interest in WHIRL from 51% to 20% by mid-to-late 2025.
In this note, we talk about the past deal performance and other deal dynamics.

10. Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO Preview

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) (Good Me) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong Exchange in February.
At the high end of the IPO price range, the listing will raise about HK$1.58 billion (US$220 million).
Guming is a ready-to-drink beverage company specializing in freshly made tea beverages.

Feb 02

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Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Feb 2, 2025

By Smartkarma Content | Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) is looking to raise about US$350m in its India IPO. The deal is downsized from an earlier reported size of around US$480m.
Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
Previously, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.

2. Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO

While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut.
Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds.

3. SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26

By Andrei Zakharov

SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.

4. Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors

The company is performing an abbreviated four-day roadshow and has gained momentum with interest from sector-dedicated investors.
According to our sources, the deal was considered oversubscribed at launch from a mix of new and existing investors.
Typically, the biotech IPOs that are eager to come out of the gates in January have fared overwhelmingly better than those that trickle out later in the year.

5. SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC’s lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024.
Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO.

6. ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we had a look at the possible A/H listing for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), along with a few large IPOs in India .
On the placements front, while there weren’t any large deals launched, we did look at the lockup expiry for Timee Inc (215A JP) and Sanil Electric (062040 KS).

7. Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO

Sources have stated that the deal is experiencing “pushback” from the buy-side on the price.
Fresh on the mind of IPO investors is the underperforming energy deal, Venture Global (VG)
Price sensitivity in the deal is a stark signal to exercise caution on this IPO at this time

8. Doosan Enerbility: Thoughts on the IPO of Doosan Skoda Power

Doosan Skoda Power is getting ready to complete an IPO on the Prague Stock Exchange. The IPO is aiming to gather up to 2.53 billion crowns, or about US$105.5 million.
Post IPO, Doosan Power System plans to maintain a 67% ownership. Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) owns a 100% stake in Doosan Power Systems.
If Doosan Skoda Power is valued at 8.3 billion crowns and if we annualize the company’s net profit to 473 billion in 2024, this would suggest a P/E of 17.5x.

9. Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue

The company priced a downsized transaction of 26.08mm shares (down from 34.8mm) at $20.00 (original range $23-$27) and opened at $21.05 for a gain of 5.3% at first trade.
A broken IPO usually hurts the psyche of the IPO market in the short term.
The healthcare space will be looking to give IPOs a boost during the second half of the week with much stronger deals set to debut.

10. Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut

The GLP-1 market has experienced a recent boom and Metsera is capitalizing on this with a well-times IPO.
According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with the books closing Wednesday at 4pm for a Friday debut.
The company is seeking a mega valuation of$1.8b if priced at the high-end of the range. An IPO valuation at these levels would put the company in “rare-company”.

Jan 26

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Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jan 26, 2025

By Smartkarma Content | Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Korea’s Financial Regs Drop New IPO Allocation and Delisting Rules: What It Means and What to Expect

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM, Aequitas Research

We might see a liquidity crunch post-listing, with tighter regulations and mandatory holding drying up liquidity, causing more volatile price swings.
Big local players with heavy lock-ups will take a large allocation, creating significant overhang risk at the six-month mark. Stronger IPO eligibility boosts costs, pushing funds toward riskier trades.
Overall, this feels like a quick fix. Rather than focusing on long-term market improvements, we should focus on the new pricing patterns likely to emerge in the short term.

2. HKEx Consultation Paper – What Matters for ECM Investors

Stock Exchange of Hong Kong issued a consultation paper titled Proposals to Optimise IPO Price Discovery and Open Market Requirements with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
In this note, we summarize key points for ECM investors and analyze the impact from a historical perspective the impact for ECM investors.
We are of the view that overall the changes will benefit ECM investors by reallocating a portion of the profits from cornerstone investors.

3. Smithfield Foods (SFD): Terms Set for WH Group’s Spin-Off

Spin-Off of WH Group’s could raise up to $939 million if priced at the high-end of the range
The IPO is set to price on Monday January 27th for a Tuesday, January 28th debut
Flash numbers revealed sales for the three months ended December 29, 2024 will range from $3,873 million to $3,953 million (prev. year $3,998 million)

4. Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea

The FSC announced the details of its new IPO system improvement measures in Korea on 21 January.
New rules will discourage the rampant first day trading of Korean IPOs. In 74 out of 77 IPOs in 2024, institutional investors were “net sellers” on the listing date.
Rather, the new rules will encourage the investors to take more longer term approach to investing in Korean IPOs.

5. Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal

The company reduced the range from $40-$46 to $23-$27 and increased the amount of shares offered by the company from 50.0mm shares –> 70.0mm shares.
It is highly unusual that the underwriting lineup, company and buy-side was so misaligned on valuation leading to this massive slashing of the deal.
The deal is considered “oversubscribed” with several significant anchor orders placed following the reworking of terms.

6. Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM, Aequitas Research

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports.
Guming is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand and the second largest freshly-made brand across all price ranges, regarding GMV in 2023.
The bull case rests on a rising market share, strong franchisee profitability, top-tier revenue growth, high margins, cash generation and a strong balance sheet.

7. Sichuan Biokin (百利天恒) H-Listing: Impressive Clinical Results so Far

Sichuan Biokin is looking at a A-H listing and is looking to raise up to USD 500 million.
In this note we look at the company’s fundamentals briefly including its heavyweight product BL-B01D1. We also examine its deal with BMS.
The stock has performed well on Shanghai STAR board since its A share listing.

8. Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Due to intense competition, freshly-made beverage market has shown signs of saturation after rapid growth in previous years. Guming is currently in a bottleneck period. Future performance growth will decline.
Due to a decrease in consumption, we have seen the price war in this industry. We think Guming’s profit margin performance will decline in the future if it reduces prices.
Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) and Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) due to larger revenue scale/higher net profit margin, but lower than MIXUE.

9. HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping