This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E
- OpenAI Joins the AI Chip Race — Partnering with TSMC and Broadcom to Reduce Nvidia Reliance
- TSMC January Revenue Rises 35.9% — But Reduces 1Q25E Expectations Due to Quake Impact
- Hon Hai Guides for 1Q25E Growth to Be Above Average and ‘Strong’
2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Extremes; ChipMOS Still High
- TSMC: +24.7% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Spread At Current Level
- ASE: +2.6% Premium; Wait for Closer to Parity Before Going Long Again
- ChipMOS: +1.8% Premium; Can Continue to Consider Shorting at Current Level
3. SMIC (981.HK): Revenue Growth Decelerated in 4Q24, and Growth Momentum to Be Regained in 1Q25.
- SMIC’s 1Q25 guidance is for revenue to increase by 6% to 8% QoQ, and the gross margin to range from 19% to 21%.
- Client revenue contribution from China/Europe/US has changed from 80.8%/15.7%/3.5% in 4Q23 to 89.1%/8.9%/2% in 4Q24. These numbers indicate that SMIC is gradually becoming independent from Europe and the US.
- SMIC’s guidance for the year 2025 is that revenue growth is expected to be higher than the industry average in the same markets.
4. SMIC (SEHK: 00981, SSE STAR MARKET: 688981): Risky to Chase Strength
- Media reports of a sharp decline in profit linked to trade tensions are not correct. Gross, operating and total net profit all increased from 1Q to 4Q of 2024.
- Management’s guidance for 1Q of 2025 has sales growth accelerating to 6% to 8% and the gross margin remaining relatively high at 19% to 21%. This looks reasonable.
- But the shares are near their all-time high and too expensive to chase given the potential negative impact of President Trump’s trade policy. Take profits.
5. Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record High Of $627.6 Billion in 2024. Where To Now?
- Global semiconductor sales reached a all time record high of $627.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 19.1% YoY, details here:
- As anticipated, semi sales eased off in December 2024, reaching $57.0 billion, a decrease of 1.2% MoM but still up 17% YoY.
- WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward to >15%
6. ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): A Seasonal Decline in 1Q25, But US BIS Policy Will Help ASEH Business.
- 4Q24 IC ATM sales recorded NT$162bn, up 1% QoQ, GM: 16.4%, down 0.1% QoQ. EMS sales were NT$74.9bn, down 1% QoQ mainly due to seasonality.
- 1Q25 EMS sales will decline slightly YoY, and OPM is down 0.13ppts YoY. IC-ATM sales will decline mid-single-digits QoQ and GM is down slightly more than 1% QoQ.
- Believes it will bring upside from new US BIS policy to ban non-listed OSAT vendors (especially China vendors) to produce US-related chip, but can’t quantify at this moment.
7. Novatek (3034.TT): The Outlook 1Q25 Is Showing Surprising Upside Due to the China Subsidy Program.
- US-China trade war has led to tariff uncertainties. China’s subsidy program has stimulated pre-purchasing by customers in 1Q25, resulting in increased demand for televisions, tablets, phones, and IT products.
- All three major product lines have shown seasonal growth. which LDDI has shown the largest growth, SoC follows closely, and SMDDI has lower growth.
- DeepSeek will accelerate the implementation and popularization of AI applications, benefiting the company.
8. Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China’s Electronics
- The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.
- Factors such as increased demand related to Apple (AAPL US) iPhone production and subsidies for China’s electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek’s output in 1Q25.
- US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan’s increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion
- Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA has had Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) on his watchlist. He wrote on 6 Feb 2025 in his TOPIX Who Is Ready piece he expected Q1 inclusion.
- He also noted that an equity offering might be required. Monday, we got a forecast revision (upward) for the year ended 31 January, an equity offering, and TOPIX inclusion.
- The equity offering proposed is large enough one could consider it a “Second IPO”. This matters in terms of absorption and in thinking about the TOPIX Inclusion event.
2. CATL IPO Listing in Hong Kong Preview
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong exchange. CATL is expected to raise at least US$5 billion.
- CATL maintained its 36.8% share in the global EV battery market in 2023 and January to November 2024. CATL has excellent fundamentals and improving profit margins.
- Major risk factors include additional tariffs by the US, recent addition to Pentagon’s blacklist, declining sales in 2024, and lower government subsidies for EVs globally.
3. CATL A/H Listing – IPO Filing Updates
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
- CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about updates from its most recent filings.
4. Takasago Thermal Engineering Offering (1969) – Small Start to Larger Unwind
- Takasago Thermal Engineering (1969 JP) reported Q3 earnings today. Revs up tiny yoy over 9m. OP +13%, Net +18.2%. Progression a bit behind guidance for full-year (but guidance unchanged)
- Orders received and carried forward a record high. Margins up. DX/etc investments up. Crossholdings down but still HUGE outbound/in-bound. Goal is to shrink from 20% of net assets to 15%.
- Today the company announced some crossholders would sell ~5% of shares out, and the company would launch a buyback for half that. Meh…
5. Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small
- Mizuho Bank is looking to raise US$151m from selling some of its stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP).
- While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
6. MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins
- Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
- In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we talk about updates from its recent filings.
7. Hexaware Technologies IPO – Not Cheap on Its Own, but Peers Are Trading a Lot Higher
- Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) is looking to raise US$1bn from its India IPO.
- Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
- In this note, we discuss its RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.
8. Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights
- Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case and Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case.
- Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs674-708 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.
9. Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche
- Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
- Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
- We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.
10. ECM Weekly (10th Feb 2025) – Haitian, Guming, LG CNS, Dr Agarwal, Ola, Brainbees, Kaynes, Whirlpool
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, neither of the two listings performed last week, while more are lining up to list across the region.
- On the placements front, given the ongoing earnings season there weren’t any deals. We did look at lockups and other possible upcoming deals.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. 7&I (3382) – In Limbo, Dipping, But Stories Coming Together
- In the past month we have seen Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) earnings, confirmation of the York Holdings timeline, stories about Apollo, KKR, and CP Group providing MBO financing.
- We’ve also seen Itochu confirm the financing request from the Ito family, and two American banks tapped to provide LBO financing.
- York Holdings itself gets created this month, and a buyer decided “in spring” with a Group Buyer/Outcome possibly decided by the May AGM. Looks skewed to me.
2. Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
- There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
- Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
- The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.
3. China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month
- There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
- The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).
- Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.
4. Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
- There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks.
- If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.
- The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.
5. NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March
- With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
- Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
- With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.
6. Kaonavi (4435 JP) – Small HR Software Co Gets 121% Premium LBO from Carlyle
- Another Japanese smallcap takeover at a huge premium. Must be a day ending in “y.” It is a thing recently.
- Interestingly, this is NOT an MBO. It is an LBO. Carlyle is buying out Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) at ¥4,380/share which is 19x book and 89x EBIT. Nice price.
- I expect this gets done easily because the co-CEO with 28.7% and Recruit with 20.6% are putting in. There’s another easy 9.7%. One more holder and this is done.
7. S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
- There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
- The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
- A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.
8. Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Eva Air (2618 TT) Winging Its Way In
- Eva Airways (2618 TT) is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March, replacing Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326 TT).
- Passive trackers will have 1 day of ADV to buy in Eva Airways (2618 TT) and over 3 days of ADV to sell in Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326 TT).
- Positioning on Eva Airways (2618 TT) does not appear excessive while Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326 TT) seems to be oversold.
9. SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163) – Oops! NTT Docomo May Not Be There As a Buyer
- On Friday, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) fell 12.5% in the last 90 minutes of trading. This was not due to their Q3 earnings release (out 30 January).
- It seemed due to investor disappointment in the content of the NTT earnings call. As discussed in the forked insight, there had been speculation NTT would buy SBI Sumishin.
- Investors had thought NTT would pay more than 28x earnings and a ¥600bn premium to book to buy the business. At 23.7x Mar25e EPS and 4.1x book, it’s still expensive.
10. Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech
- Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) could replace L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.
- L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) will also be excluded from the F&O segment at the close on 27 March, so there could be some interesting dynamics at play.
- Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stock. The impact in terms of delivery volume increases to 1.6-2.2x.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Steno Signals #184 – Here is the roadmap for the business cycle in 2025
- Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we aim to paint a medium-term picture of liquidity, growth, and inflation—and how these factors will impact your allocation.
- It seems The Donald has a penchant for late Friday tariff announcements, keeping markets on edge for a second consecutive Monday open.
- This pattern is starting to take shape, though we likely need a third occurrence before drawing statistical conclusions.
2. The Economic Impact of Tariffs
- Recent announcements of tariffs by the Trump administration have caused global tensions and retaliatory measures
- The tariffs are aimed at countries like Mexico, Canada, and China, with potential impacts on US companies and global supply chains
- The situation is evolving, with negotiations and potential escalations to watch for in the coming days
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
3. The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves
- Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation. China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.
- DeepSeek’s announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.
- Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump’s hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market.
4. Korea Exchange Announces 8 Major Incentives for Selected Excellent Value-Up Companies
- On 11 February, the Korea Exchange announced eight major incentives for selected excellent Corporate Value Up companies every May starting this year.
- Some of the major incentives include preferential tax treatment and preferential inclusion in the Korea Value Up index.
- The Korea Exchange plans to select and announce 10 companies that will be included as Excellent Value Up Companies for the first time in May 2025.
5. Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)
- Hong Kong’s secular bull market gained after DeepSeek’s announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.
- Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm. Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.
- BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.
6. The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?
- All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order.
- For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday.
- This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.
7. Impact of Nextrade Alternative Trading System Going Live on the Korean Stock Market on 4 March
- Nextrade (NXT) is an alternative trading system (ATS) in Korea which will start to go live on 4 March.
- Nextrade provided a list of 10 stocks including Lotte Shopping, Cheil Worldwide, Kolon Industries, LG Uplus, and S Oil that will start to trade on NXT starting 4 March.
- Most of these 10 stocks tend to be lower beta stocks with relatively low amounts of share volatility. These 10 stocks are up on average 2.8% YTD, underperforming KOSPI.
8. The Rise of Quant Investing in Crypto w/ Truvius CEO Connor Farley | The New Barbarians #007
- The podcast is called New Barbarians and focuses on digital assets and opportunities in the market
- The special guest, Connor Farley, is the CEO and co-founder of Truvias, an SEC registered investment advisor specializing in digital asset portfolio management
- The current market trends include rising inflation concerns, increasing interest in gold, and the potential for Bitcoin to act as digital gold, according to the hosts and guest.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
9. Advancements in Portfolio Construction & Optimization | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #001
- The podcast discusses advanced portfolio optimization techniques in the world of digital assets
- Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a key concept in investing, but newer models and techniques like Black Litterman and shrinkage estimators are being used to address limitations
- Thematic model grouping and consolidated alpha optimization are two key approaches to portfolio construction discussed in the episode.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
10. Early Days of New Trump Administration
- The early days of the Trump administration has seen lots of volatility around the tariffs with Canada and Mexico, but the more stable U.S. Treasury market helps provide an anchor.
- U.S. Treasuries have shift towards the view that the 10yr budget bill will be delayed until H2 and likely be only modestly stimulative in 2026.
- Combined with the Fed still leaving the door open to rate cuts this has helped avoid major directional movements.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?
- Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
- AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
- H125 is a reset period for AMD’s Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn’t mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.
2. Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?
- Rapidus Corporation — The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
- How Rapidus Compares to TSMC — Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
- Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC — Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.
3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?
- TSMC Expands 2nm & Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm “GIGAFAB” in the South — Despite U.S. Tariff Risks
- Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.
- Apple Supply Chain Monitor — Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory
4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity
- TSMC: +20.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level vs. Relative Range; Comments from Morris Chang on Premium
- ASE: +0.5% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
- ChipMOS: 1.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting Premium at Current Level
5. MediaTek (2454.TT): A Good Start in 1Q25; D9500 Launched After About 1H25; China Subsidy.
- The upcoming 1Q25 could be relatively flat or slightly higher than 4Q24, which represents a better start than usual due to seasonal effects.
- The Dimistry 8400/9400 models have been successful sellers, and a new Dimistry 9500 is expected to be launched after the first half of 2025. (link)
- The China electronic household subsidy program, including smartphone, has resulted in over 8 million sales in shipments within 4 days on Jan 25.
6. MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q25 Guidance Beats Consensus; Providing N2 Solution Starting from 2026.
- 1Q25 outlook is NT$140.8-151.8 billion, up 2-10% QoQ and up 6-14% YoY, with a GM of 47% ± 1.5%, beating consensuses.
- Smartphone sales are +59% from 4Q24, increasing 14% QoQ but decreasing 1% YoY, attributed to the successful launch of the D9400, with healthy demand for smartphones and subsidy stimulation from China.
- GAI will continue to drive innovative changes in the industry, while MediaTek is evaluating the phenomenon’s effect on resource allocation.
7. Qualcomm Q125. Firing On All Cylinders & An Ace Up Their Sleeve…
- Q125 revenues of $11.7 billion, up 18% YoY, up 15% QoQ and marginally above the high end of the guided range. This represented the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
- In December, Snapdragon X Series had more than 10% share of the greater than $800 Windows laptops in U.S. retail.
- A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit
8. PC Monitor: Latest Qualcomm & Mediatek Results Show ARM-Based Chips Disrupting the PC Market
- Growing Signs That ARM-Based Chips Are Set to Disrupt the PC Market
- Qualcomm’s Earnings Call Insights — Snapdragon’s ARM-Based Push into PCs Successfully Taking Significant Market Share
- Mediatek Earnings Call Highlights — Reiterates ARM-Based Entry into PC Market with AI Supercomputer CPU in Collaboration with NVIDIA
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Guming Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
- Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
- In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.
2. LG CNS IPO: Trading Debut
- LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) priced its IPO at KRW61,900 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$820 million. The shares will start trading on 5 February.
- We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case, LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case and LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights.
- Since the prospectus’s release, the peers have marginally re-rated. The valuation remains undemanding at the IPO price, and bullish grey market prices suggest a strong debut.
3. Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case and Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case.
- There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.
4. LG CNS IPO Trading – Demand Aided by Domestics, Limited Lockup Undertaking
- LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) raised around US$825m in its Korea IPO. LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company.
- LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
- In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.
5. LG CNS: First Day Trading Strategy Post IPO
- In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of LG CNS which starts trading on 5 February.
- On the first day of trading, we believe LG CNS’s shares could trade at higher levels, overshooting its intrinsic valuations.
- We recommend investors to take some profits off the table if the share price shoots higher by 30% to 50%+ from the IPO price on the first day.
6. Guming IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Is It Time to Sip or Skip?
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is offering 158.6 million shares in a price range of HK$8.68 to HK$9.94 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$1.58 Bn.
- Despite outperforming peers in revenue and profit growth, Guming is grappling with a bleak macro environment, operational slowdowns, and intensified competition.
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) ‘s faltering operating metrics for last reporting period cast doubt on its near-term growth and profitability outlook—leaving investors to ask: Sip or skip?
7. ECM Weekly (3rd Feb 2025) – Seoul Guarantee, Dr Agarwal’s, Ather Energy, Hexaware, Visen Pharma
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, we had a look at the valuations for Dr. Agarwal’s Eye Hospital and Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS).
- On the placements front, given the holiday shortened week, there were no placements this week.
8. Trump Admin’s Tariff Headlines Obscure Suspension Of “De Minimis” Rule | Big Impact on SHEIN, Temu
- By executive order, President Trump suspended section 321 (“de minimis“) imports on Feb 4th
- Direct-To-Consumer imports valued at < US$800 may no longer enter the US duty-free
- Added cost and new paperwork burden (both borne by US consumers) to hit SHEIN, Temu
9. Whirlpool of India OFS Early Look – Another Large Selldown by Parent
- Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) is looking to raise about INR 46bn (US$530m) from selling a stake of about 31% in Whirlpool of India Limited (WHIRL).
- In an announcement released on Jan 30, 2025, the firm mentioned its ultimate parent’s intention to sell down its interest in WHIRL from 51% to 20% by mid-to-late 2025.
- In this note, we talk about the past deal performance and other deal dynamics.
10. Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO Preview
- Guming Holdings (1364 HK) (Good Me) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong Exchange in February.
- At the high end of the IPO price range, the listing will raise about HK$1.58 billion (US$220 million).
- Guming is a ready-to-drink beverage company specializing in freshly made tea beverages.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February
- Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-June.
- The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
- Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 13 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in February.
2. FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake
- There could be 1/2 changes to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March. Then there will be more changes as large Chinese companies list H-shares on the HKEX.
- Fast Entries and regular inclusion of newly listed H-shares will change the characteristics of the FXI and there could be further deviations from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
- That will provide opportunities for index rebalance traders as well as volatility traders that are active on the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) options.
3. Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿
- Today, Taiwanese passive components maker Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced its Board had approved the launching of a Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
- It turns out YAGEO approached them in October, Shibaura stonewalled for 3mos, required an NDA to meet, and refused to budge. METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines were likely ignored.
- This could set off a flurry of activity including competition, an auction, promises of dividends, and who knows what. It will be exciting but it’s not C&F.
4. Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month
- Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
- With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
- The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.
5. STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍
- With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index. There are a few migrations between the indices.
- We estimate turnover of 3.8% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated net round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.8bn).
- The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have underperformed the forecast deletes. For the STAR100 Index outright changes, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a lot.
6. Kyocera (6971) – Changes Policies – Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares
- Today, in conjunction with the release of Q3 earnings, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) announced a change in its Corporate Governance Code doc, a change in Cross-holding Policy, and Buyback Policy.
- Full-Year earnings guidance revision was non-salutary. Revs -1%, OP -69%, Net Profit -72% vs previous predictions from 30 October (those were -1.5%, -38.2%, -36.6% vs April guidance at the time).
- Based on this disappointment, they announced they would speed up the sale of crossholdings and buy back shares this year and over the following three years.
7. KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That
- Halfway through the review period, there could be 6 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in June. The LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) listing could increase that number.
- The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 2.1-26 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 5-11 days of ADV.
- The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months and the performance gap is near its widest point.
8. KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Smaller Deal Than Usual
- The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced first week of March and implemented at the close of trading on 13 March.
- We forecast two changes for the Bio Index and one change for the Internet Index. Plus there will be capping changes for all indices.
- The largest flows will be in Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, POSCO Holdings, Alteogen, Naver Corp, Legochem Biosciences, Netmarble and Celltrion Inc.
9. Osaka Steel (5449) Large Buyback At a Discount Ruins Fun For Activists
- Osaka Steel (5449 JP) is 65% owned by Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP). They make a relatively simple set of steel products used by shipbuilders, construction companies, and warehouse builders.
- Activist Effissimo Capital went over 5% in October 2016 and is still a top holder. Activist Strategic Capital went over 5% in December 2023 and now owns 10+% of votes.
- The “hope” had been that Nippon Steel buy out minorities and Osaka Steel would be rescued from mediocre capital returns. That was not to be. Activists are disappointed.
10. Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February
- There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
- With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.
- With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks
- Recent tech stock sell-off causing market volatility
- Limited contagion to broader market, some stocks even up
- Potential for more impact as uncertainty around DeepSeek continues
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
2. Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside
- Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.
- Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.
- I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.
3. The Tariff Effect: Economic Uncertainty Unpacked | The New Barbarians #006
- Equities opened down, with futures showing a decline across various markets
- January saw significant gains in gold and Bitcoin, outperforming equities
- European stocks surged 8.2% in a month, surprising many investors and challenging traditional market outlooks
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
4. The Tariff Announcement That Shocked Financial Markets
- Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% tariffs on oil and China
- Tariffs are paid by US consumers at the point of entry, not fully equating to a 25% price increase
- Uncertainty about impact of tariffs on prices of goods like maple syrup and avocados
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
5. Can the Stock Market Vigilantes Save the Bull?
- The current environment suggests that traders should adopt a strategy of “buy the dip and sell the rips”.
- The combination of negative surprises during earnings season and potential bearish policy announcements when the market is overbought will put downward pressure on stock prices.
- On the other hand, investors should trust the stock market vigilantes to activate the Trump Put in the event of a market downdraft.
6. China-U.S. Trade War Next To Talks?
- Negotiating will likely start in spring, but negotiating will be tough as the U.S. wants a phase 2 deal with new objectives to boost U.S. exports and penalties
- China will likely be quick to make concessions on needed agricultural imports and illegal Fentanyl from China, but slow to concede on the idea of penalties.
- It will be a volatile road to an eventual deal in late H1 or early H2.
7. A Long-Term Sell Signal?
- Breadth indicators are flashing early cautionary signals for U.S. equities, but these signals can often be early in calling a major market top.
- A review of other indicators on different investing dimensions are either benign or cautious.
- We interpret this as the warning of a possible major market top in Q1 or Q2. Investors should monitor risk appetite indicators for tactical signs to turn cautious.
8. The Drill – Oil down and precious metals UP.. The short USD trade in Geopolitics
- Welcome to this week’s The Drill, which I will be authoring by myself moving forward.
- This means a continued focus on commodities and energy, but also an increased dosage of geopolitics as many of you have wished for.
- Each week, we’ll cover a couple of key topics as well as provide you with a sneak peak into our data models and what they have to say on commodities.
9. Global FX & Equities: Dollar/ equity linkages and the upcoming tariff announcement
- Concerns about the end of US equity exceptionalism could lead to potential weakness in the dollar
- Deepseek model challenges US exceptionalism in tech and could impact equity markets
- Despite volatility, US equity market still strong, but potential for more bouts of volatility ahead
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
10. The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Alfamart’s Guidance, Indonesia’s Pragmatism, and Thai Banks
- The past week saw insights on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ, SLB Development (SLB SP), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Hyphens Pharma International (HYP SP), and Bund Center Investment (BTE SP).
- There was also a macro insight on Singapore, an Indonesia Strategy Insight, and a bank screener looking at Thai Banks from Victor Galliano.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. DeepSeek R1. Ahem, This Is Awkward..
- DeepSeek’s R1 is a game changer that’s taken the world by storm. It’s a fantastic accomplishment by a Chinese team and a huge endorsement of the open source approach
- US competitors have egg on their faces now, but they will adapt. Competition is always a good thing & the future of AI just got a whole lot brighter
- Last night’s selloff was a Chinese New Year gift. Just accept it. Happy CNY to all!
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium
- PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
- Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth?
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US.
3. Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth?
- SK Hynix Expects 100% HBM Revenue Growth in 2025E After a Massive 2024 — Which Means Traditional DRAM Doesn’t Matter as Much Anymore
- DeepSeek Market Fears — A Problem for HBM & Enterprise SSD Memory?
- AI Industry Opportunities Are Not a Fixed Size Pie — Will DeepSeek Impact HBM DRAM TAM? Why We Don’t Think So
4. PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
- Recent U.S. Market Weakness Appears to Have Been More Focused on Falling Sentiment for Server Businesses, Not PCs
- CES 2025 Showed Qualcomm Chips Gaining Momentum in PCs, While AMD Continued Aggressive Competition — Intel Under Pressure
- PC Maker Universe to Experience Decent Revenue Growth in 2025E — Structural Long Asustek & Dell
5. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Dramatic Spreads Open Up After DeepSeek Rout & Taiwan Market Closure
- TSMC: 10.8% Premium; Taiwanese Investors Likely to Be Less Shocked by DeepSeek News?
- UMC: -7.3% Discount; The Latest Extreme Discount Cannot Be Sustained
- ASE: -10.2% Discount; This Extreme Discount Also Cannot Be Sustained
6. ASML. Strong Finish For 24, Robust Outlook For 25 With AI As Key Growth Driver
- ASML reported Q424 revenues of €9.3 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 24% QoQ and up 28.5% YoY.
- Full year 2024 revenue amounted to €28.3 billion, up 2.7% YoY and a modest improvement on the previously forecasted zero growth
- Guided full year 2025 revenues to be in the $30-$35 billion range, representing a 15% YoY increase at the midpoint.
7. Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Latest AAPL Results — Taiwan Suppliers Well Placed for Monday Re-Open
- Apple 1Q25 Results — Overall Price-Supportive for Taiwan Supplier Share Prices When the Taiwan Market Re-Opens Monday
- Why Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT) and Kinsus Interconnect Tech (3189 TT) Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory
- Increasingly sophisticated Apple products require significantly more complex PCBs & interconnect solutions, especially as advanced packaging has become a key enabler of high-performance computing.
8. Semiconductor’s Over-Dependency on AI
- A new AI platform named DeepSeek threatens today’s Large Language Model status quo
- Certain chip companies have become over-dependent on AI, including Nvidia, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, and their stock has tumbled
- It’s too early to tell what will occur over the long term
9. Intel Q424. It’s A Journey, Not A Destination
- Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.
- Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ
- Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
- Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) is looking to raise about US$350m in its India IPO. The deal is downsized from an earlier reported size of around US$480m.
- Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
- Previously, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.
2. Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO
- While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
- Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut.
- Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds.
3. SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26
- SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
- The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
- I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.
4. Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors
- The company is performing an abbreviated four-day roadshow and has gained momentum with interest from sector-dedicated investors.
- According to our sources, the deal was considered oversubscribed at launch from a mix of new and existing investors.
- Typically, the biotech IPOs that are eager to come out of the gates in January have fared overwhelmingly better than those that trickle out later in the year.
5. SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis
- Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
- All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC’s lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024.
- Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO.
6. ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, we had a look at the possible A/H listing for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), along with a few large IPOs in India .
- On the placements front, while there weren’t any large deals launched, we did look at the lockup expiry for Timee Inc (215A JP) and Sanil Electric (062040 KS).
7. Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO
- Sources have stated that the deal is experiencing “pushback” from the buy-side on the price.
- Fresh on the mind of IPO investors is the underperforming energy deal, Venture Global (VG)
- Price sensitivity in the deal is a stark signal to exercise caution on this IPO at this time
8. Doosan Enerbility: Thoughts on the IPO of Doosan Skoda Power
- Doosan Skoda Power is getting ready to complete an IPO on the Prague Stock Exchange. The IPO is aiming to gather up to 2.53 billion crowns, or about US$105.5 million.
- Post IPO, Doosan Power System plans to maintain a 67% ownership. Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) owns a 100% stake in Doosan Power Systems.
- If Doosan Skoda Power is valued at 8.3 billion crowns and if we annualize the company’s net profit to 473 billion in 2024, this would suggest a P/E of 17.5x.
9. Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue
- The company priced a downsized transaction of 26.08mm shares (down from 34.8mm) at $20.00 (original range $23-$27) and opened at $21.05 for a gain of 5.3% at first trade.
- A broken IPO usually hurts the psyche of the IPO market in the short term.
- The healthcare space will be looking to give IPOs a boost during the second half of the week with much stronger deals set to debut.
10. Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut
- The GLP-1 market has experienced a recent boom and Metsera is capitalizing on this with a well-times IPO.
- According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with the books closing Wednesday at 4pm for a Friday debut.
- The company is seeking a mega valuation of$1.8b if priced at the high-end of the range. An IPO valuation at these levels would put the company in “rare-company”.