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Weekly Top Ten

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Nov 26, 2023

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance

1. JSR (4185) – Time To Fight The FUD

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Many months ago I suggested the JIC Tender Offer JSR Corp (4185 JP) was not overwhelmingly high-priced, but that it would be “heavy” for months to come. 
  • FUD and Flows would widen the spread. And they did.
  • Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.

2. Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 18% One-Way Turnover & US$2.74bn Trade

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Using data from the close on 20 November, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
  • There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.8% and a one-way trade of US$1.37bn.
  • There are 16 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1-day ADV to trade.

3. Understanding Extreme SSF Spreads in Korea & Trading Approaches

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Futures backwardation resulting from the short selling ban will persist. Also, the contraction of market making will lead to more widespread and frequent occurrences of extreme spreads.
  • The straightforward sell arbitrage (reverse cash and carry) is no longer viable. We must pay attention to the emergence of new price and trading patterns driven by these market conditions.
  • One potential pattern is the possibility of spot buying centered around those that exhibited extreme spreads at expiration. This has already been observed to some extent in this month’s expiration.

4. EOFlow (Further) Tests Investor Patience

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Back on the 25 May, when Medtronic Plc (MDT US) enter into a SPA with EOFlow (294090 KS)‘s CEO, with a follow-on Tender Offer, the whole construct looked pretty clean.
  • Then in August Insulet Corp (PODD US) launched its lawsuit, which in hindsight, should have been expected. Then earlier this month, news surfaced concerning a stock-backed loan to the CEO.
  • Now the CEO is selling, presumably to repay his collateralized loan. Shares are down 38% since the resumption of trading, and are now at a whopping 122% spread to terms. 

5. What Should We Do About the Futures Basis Spread Caused by Hanwha Ocean’s Rights Offering?

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • The day the basis spread disappears is this Friday, the 24th of November. This mirrors a comparable pattern observed during Korean Air’s rights offering in 2020.
  • If the spot price does not fall below the futures price of our entry until this Friday, we could potentially be in a profitable range.
  • There has been a notable pattern where the spread continues to exist until just before the moment when new share selling becomes feasible.

6. HSCI Index Rebalance: Keep (3650 HK) & TUHU Car (9690 HK) Added

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Keep Inc (3650 HK) and Tuhu Car (9690 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) after the close of trading on 1 December.
  • Keep (3650 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 4 December while Tuhu Car (9690 HK) will only be added to Stock Connect in April.
  • There are lock-up expiries on both stocks, prior to or after inclusion in Stock Connect, and trading strategies will need to take that into account.

7. Origin Energy (ORG AU): State of Play

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • The Origin Energy (ORG AU) scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.
  • With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.
  • If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.

8. Tata Technologies IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Existing Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) shareholders are looking to sell 60.85m shares and raise between INR 28.9-30.4bn (US$347-365m) giving the company a market cap of between US$2.31-2.44bn.
  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) will have a float of around 10% at the time of listing and that will increase close to 30% after the pre-IPO lock-up ends.
  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN) could be added to global indices in May and June, but inclusion in local indices with meaningful tracking assets will take longer.

9. Daito Trust (1878) Doing a ToSTNeT Buyback Which Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback…  Unless It Is.

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors


10. S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • There could be 3 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December. There are unlikely to be any changes for indices higher up the hierarchy.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 7-11 days of ADV in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will be larger at between 11-23 days of ADV.
  • Short interest has decreased on the potential inclusions and increased on the potential deletions. There is significant pre-positioning on some of the stocks.

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance

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Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Nov 26, 2023

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

1. As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

By Andrew Lu

  • Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
  • Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
  • In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.

2. NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, up 34% QoQ and up a staggering 206% from the year ago period. It was also ~$2 billion higher than the guided number
  • NVIDIA’s current quarter forecast was for a further revenue raise of almost $2 billion with gross margins staying roughly flat at 74.5%
  • Share price reaction was negative, closing down 2.5% the following day. But why?

3. A Turnaround Story for Intel by Accelerating 3nm Outsourcing to TSMC?

By Andrew Lu

  • By offering 15k and 30k/m 3nm capacity by 4Q24/4Q25 to Intel, TSMC will see Intel becoming one of its top 3 customers by accounting for 12% of TSMC 2025 sales
  • By leveraging 3nm outsourcing, Intel will have incremental sales/capacity growth of 19-20% per year by accounting for 28%/44% of sales in 2024/2025, beating consensus’ 14%/9% y/y sales growth for 2024/2025.
  • We estimate 30-35% 5 years EPS CAGR for Intel, driven by TSMC’s 2/3nm foundry support, lower cost and process R&D, lower capex and depreciation cost, and AI PC CPU launch.

4. Nvidia Still Cheap: Enterprise AI Next Driver to Kick-In; Adjusting Our Taiwan AI Plays Short Hedge

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Nvidia’s street-beating results indicate strong growth to continue; Generative AI demand will next expand from startups, consumer internet, and cloud service providers increasingly to enterprise AI-linked demand.
  • Nvidia is not expensive despite recent market concerns. We believe Nvidia can meet or even beat its current calendar year 2024 earnings expectations and forward PE is cheap.
  • Short a basket of Taiwan AI concept stocks vs. a core Nvidia long position rather than take profits in Nvidia. We have swapped one Taiwan stock in our short basket.

5. OpenAI Boardroom Battle: Safety First

By Douglas O’Laughlin, Fabricated Knowledge

  • OpenAI was founded in 2015 by investors, including Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel, AWS, and YC Research.
  • The goal was to pursue Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) safely for the benefit of humanity.
  • There was an initial pledge of $1 billion, but the money that came in was $100 million from Elon Musk and $30 million from Open Philanthropy.

6. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): N2 Technology Is Scheduled in 2025F.

By Patrick Liao

  • TSMC’s N2 technology is currently undergoing verification for a 256Mb SRAM, and it will be implemented in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
  • The TSMC N3 technology capacity was 65kwpm in 3Q23, and the current version is N3B, which were adopted by Apple for the iPhone 15 this year.
  • Both N3E and N2 only have 20 layers EUV masks.

7. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time — Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.
  • Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.
  • Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.

8. Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Slumps; CHT & ChipMOS at Rare Opportunity Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: 7.4% Premium — Previous Short Has Worked, Now Wait For Better Levels
  • ChipMOS: -2.0% Discount — Good Level to Go Long the Spread
  • CHT: -1.2% Discount — Good Level to Go Long the Spread

9. Q323 Memory Segment Review, Outlook

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Q323 DRAM revenues amounted to $13.210 billion, up a robust 19.25% QoQ, but still down 27% from the year-ago period.
  • In the case of NAND, Q323 revenues amounted to $9.3 billion, up 4% QoQ but down 31.7% YoY.
  • All memory players remain loss making. We don’t anticipate a return to black until Q224.

10. What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

By Andrew Lu

  • SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.
  • WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.
  • We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

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Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Nov 26, 2023

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

1. Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.
  • The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.
  • Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?

2. KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Additions and Deletions Announced (December 2023)

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Exchange announced KOSPI 200 rebalance additions and deletions today. There were 14 new additions and deletions (7 each).
  • Some surprises in KOSPI 200 rebalance included addition of Seah Besteel and deletion of HDC Hyundai Development. 
  • There were a lot more additions and deletions in KOSDAQ 150 (34 total additions and deletions). Among the KOSDAQ 150 additions included Neowiz, JNTC, Lunit, and Jeio.

3. The Land of Swaying Yen: Will The BoJ Intervene? How Will Yen Respond?

By Pranay Yadav, Mint Finance

  • Japan faces a raft of economic headwinds which shows up in Yen’s underperformance. BoJ’s job is not one to be envied given near-term issues plus structural challenges.
  • Since the start of Sep, the Yen has underperformed the most among currency majors declining to a 33-year low relative to the USD.
  • A frail outlook warrants continued loose monetary policy. However, that creates other problems forcing BoJ intervention to support the Yen.

4. Charting Beyond the Euro Area Headlines

By Thomas Lam

  • Available data through October implies that prevailing GDP growth is possibly tracking weaker than the prior quarter
  • A proxy of household saving propensity seems to be hovering around elevated levels partly because of greater uncertainty
  • Notwithstanding the recent disinflationary prints, the most persistent category of HICP inflation appears to be sticky at roughly twice the pre-pandemic average level

5. Fed’s Policy Rate Benchmark Under Scrutiny: Goodbye to the Federal Funds Rate?

By Said Desaque, DeSaque Macro Research

  • The poor results from the US Treasury’s latest 30-year bond auction highlights limited private investor appetite. Pressure on the Treasury to persist with high levels of short-term borrowing has increased.
  • Aggressive quantitative easing and interest on reserves have significantly lowered trading in the federal funds market by US banks, while Federal Home Loan Banks currently dominate lending.
  • The Fed’s policy rate could shift to the Secured Overnight Funding Rate. Functionality could be impacted by shifting perceptions about the collateral quality of Treasury securities due to high borrowing.   

6. Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now

By Manu Bhaskaran, Centennial Asia Advisors

  • The Biden-Xi meeting signals a positive phase for lower geopolitical risks in the Asia Pacific. Beijing and Washington are prioritising handling its domestic challenges over ratcheting up competitive activity.
  • Taiwan’s presidential polls also motivate China’s “wait-and-see” approach as the Sinoskeptic DPP faces headwinds in maintaining its grip on power. 
  • Japan’s more nuanced strategy has gained it traction with Asian nations. It is why it is emerging as a real winner in the geo-political game in Asia.

7. How Far Can This Rally Run?

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • The U.S. equity rally off the bottom in late October is characterized by strong price momentum and shows a high degree of upside potential.
  • Point and figure charting signifies measured objectives indicating percentage gains in the high teens or low 20s.
  • We also offer a series of sell signal triggers that indicate possible inflection points in risk/reward potential.

8. 5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.
  • This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.
  • This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within Global macro: IFO, US Rates, Earnings revisions, The USD, Gasoline.

9. Energy Cable #47: Price Always Leads Narrative

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Monday to everybody from a cold and rainy Copenhagen.
  • We are now long crude oil again as we find the narrative too bearish given the fundamentals.
  • Before we start to talk about our crude oil case, we would like to highlight the volatility in post covid energy markets and how these have benefitted sellers in the futures markets more than buyers keeping storage costs constant.

10. Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers

By Steven Holden, Copley Fund Research

  • The percentage of Global funds invested in Taiwan hits an all-time high of 57.8%.
  • Taiwan has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation alongside India, Argentina and South Korea over the last 6-months.
  • TSMC is the dominant stock holding, with 49.8% of funds holding a position and has hit record ownership among Global funds.

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

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Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Nov 19, 2023

By | Equity Capital Markets

1. Asahi Group Placement – Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns

By Clarence Chu, Aequitas Research

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) via an extended secondary follow-on.
  • The deal would represent 23 days of Asahi’s three month ADV. Its latest extended large primary deal has done very well.
  • While the deal isn’t particularly well flagged, it is an extended one allowing the market to price in the impact of the share sale. 

2. Zeekr Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Been Growing Very Fast While Meeting Its Targets

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Zeekr, a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK) , aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
  • Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

3. Zeekr Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Remains Highly Dependent on Geely

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • ZEEKR, a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
  • Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

4. Ajinomoto Placement – Share Buyback Should Aid Group Selling

By Clarence Chu, Aequitas Research

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$444m by trimming their respective stakes in Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP) via an extended secondary follow-on.
  • While the selldown doesn’t seem particularly well flagged, it won’t be a very large one to digest at just eight days of three month ADV. 
  • In a bid to cushion the selldown, Ajinomoto plans to buyback its stock to the tune of 10m shares, which would amount to 80% of the base shares on offer. 

5. WuXi XDC Cayman IPO Trading – Strong Subscription Rates Heading into Listing

By Clarence Chu, Aequitas Research

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) raised US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

6. Steadfast Group Placement – While Accretion Here Is Limited, Past Deals Have Done Well

By Clarence Chu, Aequitas Research

  • Steadfast (SDF AU) is looking to raise around A$280m (US$180m) to fund the acquisition of Sure Insurance, and provide headroom for potentially additional acquisitions over the year.
  • SDF has undertaken a number of capital raises in the past to similarly fund its active acquisition strategy. Overall, the firm’s past deal record has been strong.
  • In this note, we will talk about the acquisition and run the deal through our ECM framework.

7. Wuxi XDC: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA, LightStream Research

  • Wuxi XDC priced its IPO at HK$20.60 per share (upper-end of range), and raised HK$3.5bn (US$417m) at a market capitalisation of HK$24.3bn and post-money EV of HK$20.4bn.
  • Both HK offering and the international offering of the company were significantly oversubscribed by 49.96x and 19.6x respectively.
  • Our DCF value per share is still at a significant premium to the final IPO price, and we expect Wuxi XDC’s IPO to have a strong debut.

8. WuXi XDC IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd


9. Ecopro Materials IPO Trading – One of the Weakest Subscription Rates of the Year

By Ethan Aw, Aequitas Research

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) raised around US$320m, after downsizing the deal and pricing its IPO at the low end of the range at KRW36,200/share.
  • Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

10. ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.
  • ZEEKR has launched three models – the luxury shooting brake coupe ZEEKR 001, the luxury pure electric MPV – ZEEKR 009 and the new luxury versatile SUV – ZEEKR X.
  • The bull case rests on bestselling premium BEVs, rapid vehicle sales growth, rising gross margin, debt-free balance sheet and a favourable cash conversion cycle.

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets

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Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Nov 19, 2023

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance

1. Big M3 (2413) Partial TOB As Pasona Sells Control of Benefit One (2412): Really Interesting Dynamics

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Today after the close with Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) reporting earnings, M3 Inc (2413 JP) announced a Partial Tender Offer to buy 81.21-83.31mm shares of Benefit One at ¥1600/share.
  • That cleans out Pasona, which owns 81.21mm shares. Or does it… Shareholder structure dynamics and the problems they cause later bear some detailed examination. 
  • This one is going to be a fun special sit.

2. FRTIB Switches Benchmarks: +EM/-DM; US$56bn Trade as Asia EM Benefits & HK Loses Out

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • The FRTIB has decided to switch its benchmark for the International Stock Index Investment Fund from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index.
  • With around US$68bn invested in the I Fund, this will set off churn among the constituent stocks in 2024. One-way trade is around US$28bn with DM outflows and EM inflows.
  • The benchmark shift could be done over a 4 month period with higher trading during periods where liquidity opportunities arise.

3. I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors


4. Pasona: The Wrong Price

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • As discussed here in a piece about the Partial Tender Offer, Pasona Group (2168) has agreed to sell its controlling stake in Benefit One (2412) to M3 (2413).
  • That will leave Pasona Group with a fair chunk of cash and possibly a residual stake in Benefit One, depending on the results.
  • Though we don’t know what the future holds, Pasona now is the wrong price for its future. 

5. Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting*** Stocks

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics


6. CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • With the review period for the December rebalance of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) complete, there could be 13 changes for the index.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.94% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.98bn. There are a lot of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
  • Over the last 6 months, the potential adds and potential deletes have tracked each other and underperformed the index. Positioning has led to outperformance in the last week.

7. STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • With the review period complete, we expect one change for the STAR50 INDEX in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.
  • With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.
  • SMIC (688981 CH) will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.

8. Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) Rights Offering – The Dynamics May Be Interesting

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Last week, Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) announced its rights offering on both its H-Shares and its A-Shares, previously mooted on 23 May, and the Circular on 26 June.
  • The company applied, got CSRC approval on 5 Nov, announced the issuance on 6 Nov, and shares went ex- on 10 November. It’s probably unneeded, but it’s there. 
  • The stock is cheap. The company will boost its payout ratio. And it isn’t that “heavy” a deal. The Rights Trading Dynamics may be interesting.

9. Benefit One (2412 JP): M3’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) announced a partial tender offer from M3 Inc (2413 JP) at JPY1,600 per share, a 40.0% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The transaction facilitates Pasona Group (2168 JP)‘s exit. The offer is for a minimum of 81.2 million shares (51.16% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 87.3 million shares (55.00%). 
  • Irrevocables from Pasona represent a 51.16% ownership ratio, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is light vs. historical multiples and share prices. 

10. Key Points We Should Know Regarding the Current Status of EOFlow

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • It can be considered that the suspension of EOFlow’s trading and, furthermore, the risk of delisting have been completely eliminated at this point.
  • EOFlow emphasizes the possibility of circumventing sales of EOPatch by supplying EOPump to a JV in China. The key factors that initially sparked Medtronic’s interest in EOFlow are still valid.
  • If CEO Kim fails to repay a stock collateral loan of ₩20B or secure additional loans, approximately 4% of the total issued shares could be sold in the market.

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance

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Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Nov 19, 2023

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

1. Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread at Decent Short Level; UMC ADR Short Interest Soaring

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC’s ADR premium is 10.4%, this is a decent level to short it based on the historical trading range.
  • UMC’s ADR premium is near a good level to short the spread but one should wait for it to rise above 1.5% in our view.
  • UMC ADR short interest continues to trend higher; TSMC ADR short interest continues to fall.

2. Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

By Andrew Lu

  • Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;
  • More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies’ share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;
  • Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026.

3. Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 13/11/23

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • TSMC Reported October revenues of NT$243.20 billion, an increase of 34.8% QoQ and an increase of 15.7% YoY.
  • According to IDC, worldwide smartphone shipments amounted to 302.8 million units in Q323, still down 0.1% YoY, but up ~14.1% sequentially.
  • Silicon wafer area shipments for Q323 amounted to 3,010 MSI, down 19.5% YoY & down 10% QoQ. Why are wafer shipments declining when key end markets are in recovery mode?

4. Silicon Wafers. SUMCO Sounds The Alarm As Inventory Continues To Climb

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Global silicon wafer area shipments declined 10% QoQ in Q323 but customer inventory remains at historical highs and is showing no signs of declining
  • SUMCO’s Operating Profit forecasted to fall by ¥8.6 billion QoQ in Q423 
  • The company vowed to make “substantial” production cuts in a bid to bring their inventory situation under control. 

5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Names Rally But Nvidia Long/Short Still Working; Hon Hai & Asustek Take-Aways

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Earnings season wrapping up — Hon Hai & Asustek recently reported… Some AI names rallied hard but our Nvidia L/S trade still working
  • Hon Hai’s margin expansion story is finally starting to be realized. Stock’s perceived political risk could be an opportunity.
  • How Asustek plans to take the lead globally in AI PCs; Gaming PCs will be the first key battleground. MSI could be an interesting play on Asustek’s recent strong performance.

6. Screen Holdings (7735 JP): FY Guidance Up, 2H Guidance Down

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

  • The share price has risen by more than 20% in the past month as 1H results beat guidance, FY guidance was raised and the yen weakened.
  • The 2-for-1 stock split may also have attracted retail investors. But the new FY guidance implies lower 2H guidance. 
  • The outlook is for higher but volatile sales and profits. Valuations are reasonable but not compelling. Wait for a pullback.

7. Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs

By Douglas O’Laughlin, Fabricated Knowledge

  • This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. 
  • I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.
  • We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.

8. How Asustek Plans to Take the Lead Globally in AI PCs; Gaming PCs First Key Battleground

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Asustek reported results on November 13th that beat analyst expectations thanks to a major margin rebound. The stock soared post results.
  • Asus plans to be the first company globally to release an AI PC, leveraging extensive AI R&D across different devices as well as its leading market share in gaming PCs.
  • However, gaming PC competitor MSI is already moving fast; Shows how gaming PCs are likely to be the first AI PC battleground. Long Asustek, remains preferred over Acer.

9. Silergy (6415.TT): Silergy Expect to Grow Slightly in 4Q23F.

By Patrick Liao

  • The inventory adjustment of consumer electronics products is nearing completion and industrial products will end later.
  • Silergy Corp (6415 TT)‘s short-term growth momentum comes from the demand of new smartphone, while its long-term growth momentum comes from the automotive, new energy and high-performance computing area.
  • In 1H24, the pro forma gross profit margin can be maintained at around 50%.

10. Hon Hai’s Margin Expansion Story Finally Starting to Be Realized? Results Imply Yes

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Hon Hai beat expectations yesterday when it reported thanks to higher than expected margins. Gross margin rose to its highest level since 2018, hitting 6.7%.
  • The company has maintained its 2025E 10% gross margin target and implied that 2024 will see significant margin improvement as new higher margin businesses ramp up revenue contribution.
  • Two key market concerns: News of Chinese government investigation and political risk given Mr. Gou running for president. Company said operations continue as normal. Hon Hai remains a Structural Long.

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

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Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy – Nov 19, 2023

By | Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

1. Increase in Trading of Inverse ETFs in Korea Post Temporary Ban on Stocks Short Selling

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increase in trading of inverse ETFs in Korea post the temporary ban on stock short selling.
  • From 6th to 14th November, individual investors made net purchases of 46 inverse ETFs worth 3.7 trillion won. Local institutions also made net purchases of 1.6 trillion won. 
  • On the other hand, foreigners net sold 5.8 trillion won worth of inverse ETFs. 

2. Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
  • Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
  • Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.

3. EUR Watch: Damned if You Do Until You Are Damned if You Don’t

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.
  • The EUR (and EUR assets) have suffered from a damned if you do, damned if you don’t a scenario in recent years as the scarcity of energy has taken center stage in the pricing of everything from the EUR, to EUR discount rates and EUR risk assets.
  • Low volatility in energy prices allows energy-sensitive industrials to brighten up the outlook, which is initially good for the EUR, but the problem is just that there is a potential negative embedded feedback loop in that journey.

4. Positioning Watch – The Cocktail of Heavy Logs in Both Equities and Bonds

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which due to delays in the CFTC data has been postponed to today (data was available yesterday evening).
  • Almost as usual, markets find themselves in an odd position, as they await the next big event to move price action after Powell’s latest shocker a couple of weeks ago coupled with a severe sell-off in bonds in recent weeks.
  • Today’s CPI report will likely not change a whole lot, but equity markets may continue their run upward if we are right in our prediction from yesterday (more on that here).

5. Energy Watch: Time to Buy Oil Again?

By Ulrik Simmelholt, Steno Research

  • Conclusions up front: – We agree with OPEC that the demand side seems to be doing decent; paper markets are net short oil again.
  • Our model is approaching the buy zone despite the recent weakness seen in Oil.
  • The big risk to our model is a supply increase from an exhausted Saudi Arabian one-man-army.

6. USD CPI Watch: The tricky path to 2% despite a soft report

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Another CPI report, another preparation piece, where we as always share our thoughts on the coming report, what to expect next, and how far the Fed is from their all-important mandate of 2% inflation.
  • Main conclusions/notes upfront: 1) The path to 2% is tricky or almost impossible for the next 6 months.
  • CPI needs to average 0% MoM, which does not seem feasible.

7. Five Bullish Risk Reversals You May Have Missed

By Cam Hui, Pennock Idea Hub

  • We’re old enough to remember how the market was panicked about a U.S. recession and a rising term premium in the Treasury market.
  • Since then, a series of positive technical, macro and fundamental reversals have occurred to alleviate those concerns.
  • These reversals of an extremely bearish psychology are bullish for risk assets.

8. UK CPI Watch: No Path to 2% Unless Inflation Deflates on a Monthly Basis

By Andreas Steno, Steno Research

  • Welcome to our short and chart-packed preview of UK inflation out tomorrow morning.
  • Extreme base effects are at play in October due to energy price revisions in October 2022
  • Housing and household services are about to turn negative year over year 

9. US Inflation: First Take!

By Jeroen Blokland, True Insights

  • Disinflation Lives! US consumer prices were unchanged in October. As a result, headline inflation dropped to 3.2%. Core inflation declined to 4.0%, the lowest level in two years.
  • However, like last month, the underlying data look less upbeat. The 3-month annualized Core Services excluding Housing CPI has risen for four(!) consecutive months and reached 4.9% in October.
  • The disinflation narrative remains intact, opening the door for the Fed to proactively lower interest rates. But it remains doubtful whether Powell & Co. are truly inclined to do so.

10. 5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

By Ulrik Simmelholt, Steno Research

  • This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.
  • President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.
  • The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.

Weekly Top Ten Macro and Cross Asset Strategy

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Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Nov 12, 2023

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

1. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan company results supported their views as well.
  • Looking ahead, Novatek, Asustek, and Himax are set to release in Taiwan. Combined with NXP abroad, this will provide color on display demand, automotive, and servers/PCs.
  • A new Chinese memory chip maker just received major government investment, with an IPO of its related company planned.

2. UMC. Automotive Weakness Prolongs Downturn

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Q323 revenues of NT$57 billion, up 1.4% QoQ but down 24.3% YoY. For 2023 YTD, revenues have amounted to NT$167,575 billion, down 20.5% YoY.
  • Net income was NT$15.97, essentially flat QoQ. Gross margin came in at 35.9%, also flat QoQ. Utilisation for the quarter was 67%, down from 71% in the prior quarter.
  • Utilization set to further decline to low 60% levels in Q423, the lowest since the downturn began.

3. GlobalFoundries Pops On Q323 Earnings. But Why?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Q323 revenues of $1.85 billion, flat sequentially but down 11% YoY. Net income was $249 million, up 5% sequentially but down 26% YoY.
  • At a midpoint of $1.85 billion, forward guidance is once again flat sequentially. Overall it was a solid report with guidance slightly better than UMC delivered last week.
  • Despite the solid quarter, the company’s outlook for 2024 was bleak with a 50% CapEx cut, LTAs under mounting pressure & ominous-sounding LTA “True Up” on the horizon. 

4. HHGrace. Yikes! Things Just Got Really Ugly

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Revenues of US$568.5 million, down 10% sequentially and down 9.7% YoY, at the bottom of the previously guided range.
  • Net loss of $25.8 million compared to a profit of $7.8 million in the previous quarter and $65.5 million in the year ago period.
  • With current quarter gross margins in the 2-5% range, HHGrace has flipped from best in class in H123 to the worst in class now.

5. SMIC (SEHK: 00981; SSE Star Market: 688981): Back to Reality

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

  • Reports emphasizing that SMIC fell short of 3Q expectations don’t make much sense. The real test starts this quarter with 7nm smart phone processors for Huawei in mass production.
  • Profits are under pressure from low capacity utilization, rising depreciation and continued high investment. Cash flow is adequate. The balance sheet is sound.
  • The share price dropped 6.8% on Friday after rising 44% from late August to early November. 4Q guidance points to near-zero operating and net profit. Recovery will take time.

6. SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.

By Patrick Liao

  • Based on the some judgments, SMIC consider it will be relatively flat demand in 2024F.
  • SMIC took into consideration geopolitical instability and allowed equipment vendors to submit orders in advance. 
  • Currently, only a few manufacturers are stockpiling smartphones in response to this wave. The overall industry remains relatively stable.

7. Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

By Andrew Lu

  • Takeaways post model updated: 1. most foundries miss 4Q23 but y/y decline to decelerate; 2. y/y sales passed the trough but utilization later; 3. wafer shipment down 18-20% in 2023;
  • More takeaways: 4. different mix with different price; 5. some are defensive this year, some might have larger upside for 2024; 6. gross margin still falling and capex cut needed.
  • Automotive/Industrial lags only not beginning of the fall: Smartphone, pc, consumer/IOT foundry orders might recover earlier than automotive/industrial for 2-3 quarters, resulting fablesses in these area to outperform.

8. Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

By Andrew Lu

  • Shortage/Oversupply, price hike/cut, automotive/industrial demand and inventory corrections are still cyclical. Gross margin should double from 22-24% now once utilization returning to 100% and no more free wafer by 2025.
  • LCD driver foundry is facing a structural competition as China panel customers are building a local supply chain.
  • Attractive below NT$70 as: 1. inventory correction should be done by 2Q24; 2. global 8″ foundry sales y/y improvement began 3Q23; 3. closing to cyclical low P/BV of 2.5x.

9. With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

By Andrew Lu

  • Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).
  • The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management.
  • We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive. 

10. What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales

By Andrew Lu

  • More y/y improvement (or decline deceleration) for PC/server, power management IC (PMIC), CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF/VCSEL, gaming GPU card, memory, and foundry vendors
  • GaAs RF/VCSEL and gaming GPU card vendors saw very impressive sales growth, driven by new phones introduction and rush orders to use NVIDIA RTX 4090 gaming card for AI training.
  • Stronger than expected Oct for TSMC and Gigabyte might drive 4Q sales and near term share price upside; Visera, Andes Tech, and AP Memory might see sales and price downside.

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

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Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Nov 12, 2023

By | Equity Capital Markets

1. Renesas Electronics Placement – Well Flagged US$1.8bn Deal, Accelerated but Index Flows Should Help

By Ethan Aw, Aequitas Research

  • INCJ aims to raise around US$1.8bn via a secondary sell-down in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). This will be a clean-up trade as INCJ has been paring down its stake. 
  • The deal is a slightly large one to digest at 12 days of three month ADV and around 6% of current mcap.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

2. WuXi XDC Cayman IPO – Decent Upside from IPO Range, Bulk of the Deal Taken up by Marquee Investors

By Clarence Chu, Aequitas Research

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is looking to raise US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and share our final thoughts on valuation.

3. Will Semiconductor GDR Listing – Well Flagged and Short Interest Has Been on the Rise

By Clarence Chu, Aequitas Research

  • Will Semiconductor Shan (603501 CH) is looking to raise US$450m in its Switzerland GDR listing. The bookrunners on the deal are UBS and JP Morgan. 
  • In its base deal, the firm is offering 31m GDRs (1 GDR to 1 ordinary A-share) for sale, at a 5.4-17.2% discount to last close on its A-share leg. 
  • The base deal would be a relatively small one for the firm to digest, representing just 3.8 days of three month ADV on its A-share leg.

4. WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation First-Look

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd


5. WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK), a leading contract research, development and manufacturing organization (CRDMO), has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$470 million.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in WuXi XDC IPO: The Bull Case and WuXi XDC IPO: The Bear Case.
  • Blue-Chip cornerstones will purchase US$300 million of the offer. Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$22.84 per share, 12.8% above the midpoint of the IPO price range.

6. Bajaj Finance QIP – Very Well Flagged US$1bn Raising, past Deals Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) , one of India’s largest NBFCs, aims to raise around US$1bn via a QIP.
  • Bajaj Finance is an NBFC offering auto, consumer and home loans, along with other products as well.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.

7. Trading Strategy of Ecopro Materials IPO Post Book Building Results and Short Selling Ban

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecopro Materials reported disappointing IPO book building results. IPO price has been finalized at 36,200 won, which is at the low end of the IPO price range.
  • The demand ratio was 17.2 to 1 which was low. Total IPO offering amount was 419 billion won. Ecopro Materials will start trading on 17 November. 
  • Our base case valuation of Ecopro Materials is target price of 37,436 won per share, which is 3.4% higher than the IPO price. We remain negative on this IPO.

8. WuXi XDC IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiples Reflect 100%+ Top-Line Growth

By Andrei Zakharov

  • WuXi XDC set terms for an upcoming IPO: the fast-growing CRDMO offers 178.4M shares at the price range of HK$19.90-HK$20.60, implying a market cap of ~HK$23.9B (~$3B) at the midpoint. 
  • Cornerstone investors agreed to subscribe and buy ~116M shares, assuming the IPO price of HK$20.25 at the midpoint. WuXi XDC shares will begin trading on Friday, November 17. 
  • My PT of HK$25.57 implies a ~26% upside to the IPO price at the midpoint. WuXi XDC’s premium multiples reflect 100%+ top-line growth and the company’s leadership position. 

9. WuXi XDC Cayman IPO: Robust Top Line Growth but Margins Remain Under Pressure

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA, LightStream Research

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is a leading contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody-drug conjugate (“ADC”) and broader bioconjugate market.
  • The company has announced the terms for its HKEx IPO and plans to raise proceeds of around US$470m through the IPO.
  • Wuxi XDC’s revenues have seen robust growth during the last 3-years driven by growth in ADC market while margins have continued to decline.

10. Hybe Placement- Another Block Incoming

By Ethan Aw, Aequitas Research

  • HYBE (352820 KS)‘s second-largest shareholder, Netmarble, seeks to raise approximately US$408m through a secondary block deal, selling approximately 2.5m shares (6% of TSO). 
  • The deal is a slightly large one to digest at 10.9 days of three month ADV and 5.5% of current mcap.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets

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Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Nov 10, 2023

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance

1. Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
  • News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
  • There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.

2. Full Transcript of Korea FSC Briefing on Sudden Short-Selling Ban, Including Key Trading Insights

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • There seems to be no immediate requirement to close existing contracts. However, even the chairman of the Financial Services Commission was unable to offer a definitive answer.
  • The comprehensive investigation and prohibition of the customary naked short selling could lead to a rapid decline in overall market liquidity.
  • The first is the short-term view, focusing on futures backwardation, and the second is the medium to long-term perspective, examining how the overall market liquidity decline will affect market flows.

3. Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Tencent (700 HK) announced in-specie dividends of JD.com (9618 HK) (US$15bn+) in 2021 and Meituan (3690 HK) (US$20bn) in 2022.
  • With the Tencent (700 HK) Board meeting on 15 November to approve Q3 results and considering the payment of a dividend, the pattern could repeat this year.
  • Tencent (700 HK) owns stakes of US$1bn+ in 10 listed companies. We take a look at the stocks that could be next in line to be paid as in-specie dividends.

4. Trading Opportunities from Korea’s Sudden Short Selling Ban & Resulting Futures Backwardation

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • We should consider the complete prohibition of short selling for the next six months as practically finalized.
  • Following the individual stock short selling ban, both position hedging and short demand will inevitably shift to the futures market, consequently inducing unavoidable immediate backwardation.
  • We should design a setup that not only actively seizes sell arbitrage opportunities but also effectively capitalizes on the downward price pressure stemming from spot selling.

5. Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Descente Ltd (8114 JP) saw Itochu report it had continued its streak of consecutive days of buying, extending it to 115. Now they own 44.1% of voting rights.
  • ANTA gave hints to the progress of Descente China in the Interim Results, and Q3 Operational Update. Descente analysts are 20% ahead of guidance, but they’re probably low still. 
  • Descente reports Q2 tomorrow. I expect the numbers and presentation to surprise at the Net Profit level. I expect a forecast revision. 

6. Trading Opportunities Targeting Potential ADR Discount Increases from Korea’s Short-Selling Ban

By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

  • Given Korea’s blanket ban on short-selling, we should concentrate on the likelihood of these ADRs being significantly discounted compared to their underlying shares.
  • It should persist for an extended period, highlighting the importance of continuously monitoring ADR spreads over the next 2-3 months to seize the opportune entry timing.
  • Since all these carry single-stock futures, a flexible setup targeting this spread can be designed, ideally incorporating currency hedges.

7. Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
  • A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
  • Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.

8. Lee Family to Sell 2.6 Trillion Won in Samsung Companies to Pay for Inheritance Taxes

By Douglas Kim

  • Lee family plans to sell additional 2.6 trillion won worth of Samsung Group companies as part of their fourth installment of inheritance taxes. 
  • This inheritance tax share sale is likely to have a negative impact on Samsung Electronics, Samsung C&T, Samsung SDS, and Samsung Life Insurance. 
  • This may be just a coincidence but the regulators announced today a temporary ban on stock short selling which should help the Lee family to unload their shares. 

9. Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): INCJ Clean Up; Index Buying Smaller than Expected

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics


10. SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes; Hygon Stands Out

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • With the review period complete, we see 9 stocks in inclusion zone and 10 in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.7% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.86bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
  • Apart from being added to the SSE50 Index, Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH) could also be added to other local/global indices over the next few weeks and months.

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance

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