In today’s briefing:
- HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion
- IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks
- Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index
- HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June
- Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index
- International Paper/DS Smith: Spread
HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion
- In RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming – This Changes AH Relationships, Travis Lundy discussed the forthcoming inclusion of RMB dual counters in the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs.
- This is but one of the five capital market cooperation measures announced by the CSRC last Friday.
- The other four measures include ETFs, improving mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong, and the inclusion of REITs. This insight discusses the latter.
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks
- There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
- The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ).
- With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.
Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
- I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.
- M&A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June
- There were only 12 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the year. More than half the listings were in March.
- Of those stocks, we only see Robosense Technology (2498 HK) having a chance of being added to the HSCI in June and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
- There is a big lock-up expiry for Robosense Technology (2498 HK) in July and that should keep the stock under pressure.
Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
- I see two regular changes for the F100 index during the June 2024 review. There are more names very close to triggering F100 index changes.
- I see eight other changes for F250 in the run up to the June 2024 review including three intra-review changes. One of those intra-review changes will be confirmed later today.
International Paper/DS Smith: Spread
- Following the withdrawal of Mondi PLC (MNDI LN) from the contest to acquire DS Smith PLC (SMDS LN), the gross spread to the deal turned negative (from >10%).
- At the median 7.07x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA (within the range of former transactions), the implied equity value of DS Smith would be 388.4p. (vs. an IBES consensus TP of 395p).
- IP is giving away most of the synergies. Spread is 1.91%/2.86% (gross, annualized assuming settlement by Y/E). I would wait for the spread to widen, before setting it up.
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