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Daily Brief Consumer: Capri Holdings , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Ama Group Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024
  • Challenge Is to Raise Governance and Return on Capital for More Companies Beyond Matching Numbers
  • Ama Group (AMA ) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024


Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Tapestry is acquiring Capri, which owns Michael Kors, Versace, and Jimmy Choo
  • FTC is scrutinizing the merger due to antitrust concerns in the affordable luxury market
  • Capri’s deteriorating fundamentals may lead to a break price of $25 per share, with uncertain success of the acquisition

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Challenge Is to Raise Governance and Return on Capital for More Companies Beyond Matching Numbers

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The “30% female board member goal” appears to be more about matching numbers with results rather than discussing the positive impact of diversity on the board.
  • Over the past year, corporate governance improved only modestly for all listed companies, but few that improved their corporate governance raised the percentages of female board members and independent directors.
  • Given the strong influence between improvements in governance and return on capital and foreign ownership, it’s difficult for a company to transform itself without the reach of overseas investor engagement.

Ama Group (AMA ) – Sunday, Mar 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • AMA Group is positioned as the dominant player in the Australian vehicle repair industry
  • The company offers opportunities for revenue and cost synergies similar to Boyd’s success in North America
  • Mimval’s 2022 write-up on AMA reflects optimism for the company’s growth potential and ability to capitalize on opportunities in the market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Meituan, Jardine Cycle & Carriage and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$156) TP Change]: Counting on Execution to Navigate the Uncertainties
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, “Name & Shame”, Asia Cement, Northern Minerals


[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$156) TP Change]: Counting on Execution to Navigate the Uncertainties

By Ying Pan

  • Meituan reported C1Q24 revenue 6.0%/6.2% higher our estimate/consensus, and adjusted net income 19%/29% higher than our estimate/consensus. The stock fell on lower takeout order and in-store revenue guidance for C2Q24;
  • The stock has two uncertainties:(1)Strategic moves by Douyin and Eleme,(2)success of overseas expansion. There are no easy answers to these two questions but we believe the corner has been turned
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to HK$156/share to factor in the improvement in profitability.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, “Name & Shame”, Asia Cement, Northern Minerals

By David Blennerhassett

  • A new tool highlights which TSE companies have disclosed a policy/consideration; sometimes referred to as the “name and shame” list. In practice, more “name” than “shame”. 
  • Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) is trading rich to its NAV. And the simple ratio (JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ)) is the highest level outside the 2008 GFC. 
  • This is a rubbish Offer for Asia Cement China (743 HK). Given how shareholders voted at last year’s AGM, expect this Scheme to be voted down. Avoid.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Fonterra Shareholders Fund, Best Buy Co Inc, Gap Inc/The, Guess? Inc, BurgerFi International Inc, Burlington Stores, Hormel Foods, Kohl’s Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Ulta Beauty and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Fonterra Shareholders Fund
  • Best Buy Co.: How Are Strategically Using AI In The Business! – Major Drivers
  • The Gap Inc.: How Is Their Strategic Pivot In The Digital Era Yielding Results? – Major Drivers
  • Guess? Inc.: The Rag & Bone Acquisition Can Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • BurgerFi International: What Value Can It Extract If It Gets Acquired & What Makes It A Good Target? – Major Drivers
  • Burlington Stores Inc.: Growing Brand Mix & Elevated Assortments Catalyzing Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Hormel Foods Corporation: Growth In Foodservice & International Performance Warrants A Bullish Rating? – Major Drivers
  • Kohl’s Corporation: A Story Of Enhancing Gross Margins through Inventory Management! – Major Drivers
  • Higher Valuations Require Increased Return on Capital to Attract the Attention of Overseas Investors
  • Ulta Beauty Inc.: What Results Will The Gross Margin Management Efforts Yield In 2024


Asian Dividend Gems: Fonterra Shareholders Fund

By Douglas Kim

  • Fonterra Shareholders Fund’s dividend yield was 14.2% in 2023. Its dividend yield averaged 8.7% in the past three years. 
  • Fonterra Co-Operative Group, is a New Zealand based multinational dairy cooperative. Outside investors who are not allowed to hold shares in Fonterra Co-Operative Group can invest in Fonterra Shareholders Fund. 
  • In May 2024, Fonterra announced that it plans to sell off its consumer products businesses and concentrate on business to business sales as a dairy ingredients supplier.

Best Buy Co.: How Are Strategically Using AI In The Business! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings by Best Buy Co., Inc. demonstrated some mixed results.
  • On the positive side, it highlighted that the company had better-than-expected Q1 profitability through strong execution and preparation for future growth.
  • The company has been driving improvements in its priorities and its operational metrics.

The Gap Inc.: How Is Their Strategic Pivot In The Digital Era Yielding Results? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Gap Inc. reported strong first quarter results, exceeding expectations across key metrics, with market share gains and positive comparable sales across all brands.
  • The company’s first quarter performance reflected continued focus on its financial and operational priorities.
  • Comparable sales for the company grew by 3%, with positive comps for all brands.

Guess? Inc.: The Rag & Bone Acquisition Can Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Guess?, Inc.’s Q1 fiscal 2025 showed a strong start to the year, with significant progress on operational, strategic, and financial objectives.
  • The company reported results for the first quarter exceeding expectations in revenues, operating earnings, and per share results.
  • Sales growth was recorded in each of their segments and gross margins expanded favorably impacting the bottom line.

BurgerFi International: What Value Can It Extract If It Gets Acquired & What Makes It A Good Target? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BurgerFi International is currently examining a strategic decision involving the possible sale of the company.
  • This review comes in the wake of their reported financial outcomes for the first quarter of 2024.
  • Analyzing the financial data and strategic initiatives articulated during the earnings discussion can provide insights into the potential advantages and challenges related to such an acquisition.

Burlington Stores Inc.: Growing Brand Mix & Elevated Assortments Catalyzing Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In its recent earnings, Burlington Stores reported revenues and earnings growth for the first quarter of 2024.
  • Total sales grew by 11% compared to the same quarter in the previous year, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth.
  • The company opened 14 new stores during the quarter, expanding the total count to 1,021 stores.

Hormel Foods Corporation: Growth In Foodservice & International Performance Warrants A Bullish Rating? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hormel Foods Corporation, a multinational manufacturer of food and meat products, delivered solid performance in the first half of the year, with consecutive quarters of better-than-expected earnings, a major improvement in operating cash flows, and strength in the food services segment.
  • The company has seen a recovery in its international business, achieved stability in overall volumes, and made progress on its strategic initiatives aimed at propelling long-term growth and shareholder returns.
  • The corporation, best known for its SPAM, Hormel, and Black Label foods, is on track to meet its three-year improvement targets.

Kohl’s Corporation: A Story Of Enhancing Gross Margins through Inventory Management! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kohl’s Corporation announced its first-quarter 2024 earnings, delivering results that fell short of the company’s expectations.
  • The company faced a difficult comparison with last year’s profits due to last year’s elevated clearance activity, which generated a significant drag on comparative sales in Q1.
  • While clearance is generally a headwind for the business, the level going into 2023 was described as unique and unlikely to be repeated.

Higher Valuations Require Increased Return on Capital to Attract the Attention of Overseas Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even with the 9% increase in share repurchases, the high level of cash on hand will likely be further built up, given the increase in cash flow.
  • Companies that have increased their valuations over the past year have further increased their valuations by growing their traditionally high valuations and ROE and ROA.
  • Cash allocation is a major challenge for all companies. Many companies have a payout ratio of 30%, and they have too much cash on hand relative to sales.

Ulta Beauty Inc.: What Results Will The Gross Margin Management Efforts Yield In 2024

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings of Ulta Beauty show that in Q1 2024, the company reported a 3.5% rise in net sales to $2.7 billion, and 1.6% growth in comp sales.
  • Also, the diluted earnings per share were $6.47.
  • However, amid a rapidly shifting marketplace, the company has adjusted its expectations for the rest of the year.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, Meituan, Water Oasis, Guzman Y Gomez, Saizeriya, Lock&Lock, IDP Education, Lululemon Athletica and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201) – TMC’s Sale of TI Shares Is Innocuous, TI’s Valuation Remains Uncompelling
  • Meituan Is the Biggest Beneficiary of China’s Domestic Travel Recovery
  • MT/ Meituan (3690 HK): 1Q24, Total Revenue Up by 25% and Initiatives Loss Down by 45%
  • Water Oasis (1161 HK): Dividend Cut As Company Gets Conservative
  • Guzman Y Gomez IPO – The Positives – Network Growing, Sales Have Outpaced Network Growth
  • Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Buy On Any Weakness On A More Profitable Japan And Continued Strength In China
  • Affinity Equity Partners Seeking Delisting of Lock & Lock Through Comprehensive Stock Exchange
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Close Deletions in June
  • Guzman Y Gomez IPO – The Negatives – Lawsuits and Management Churn
  • Lululemon 1Q’24 Update


Toyota Industries (6201) – TMC’s Sale of TI Shares Is Innocuous, TI’s Valuation Remains Uncompelling

By Travis Lundy

  • Last September, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group affiliate Aisin (7259 JP) said they would get rid of ALL their cross-holdings. That signalled a future sea change in Toyota intra-group relations.
  • It meant all Toyota group companies could do that. The big moves started with a multi-party offering of Denso Corp (6902 JP) shares – Toyota, Toyota Industries, and Aisin sold.
  • Then others. Then in March, Denso announced a 2.5yr selldown of ~¥460bn of Toyota Industries shares. That meant a TI buyback was likely. We got one. Now we have details.

Meituan Is the Biggest Beneficiary of China’s Domestic Travel Recovery

By Andy Fu

  • During the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival, both flight and railway traffic seems sluggish, indicating a cooled-down enthusiasm for long-distance trips due to budget constraints.
  • Data points to booming short-distance travel with self-driving as the major means, helped by lower price;
  • Benefiting from hotel booking and catering, Meituan is the biggest beneficiary of such consumption downgrade.

MT/ Meituan (3690 HK): 1Q24, Total Revenue Up by 25% and Initiatives Loss Down by 45%

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue increased by 25% YoY and all business lines grew strongly.
  • In 1Q24, the operating losses from new initiatives decreased by 45% YoY, but new initiatives revenue still grow.
  • We conclude that the price target can be double of the market price.

Water Oasis (1161 HK): Dividend Cut As Company Gets Conservative

By Sameer Taneja

  • Water Oasis (1161 HK) reported profits down 30% YoY (ex-one-off profits down 9% YoY only), but commentary cited headwinds in the business due to muted HK economic sentiment.
  • Anticipating these headwinds, the company cut its semi-annual dividend by 50% to only 3.5 cents (implying a 7% yield on the current share price) despite a massive cash buildup.
  • Net cash at 396 mn HKD is now 58% of the market cap. Given the current economic backdrop, we see a conservative approach to dividend payment in the medium term. 

Guzman Y Gomez IPO – The Positives – Network Growing, Sales Have Outpaced Network Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guzman Y Gomez plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO.
  • GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s prior performance and future prospects.

Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Buy On Any Weakness On A More Profitable Japan And Continued Strength In China

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • After a strong 68% increase in share price in 2023, Saizeriya (7581 JP) has been trading range bound, and up 8% year-to-date in 2024. 
  • Continued weakness in Japan on the profitability front in 1HFY24 offset continued strong performance in China.
  • Japan’s operating profit is set to improve in the second half of the current fiscal year (ending August), and China’s strength will continue on the back of accelerating store openings. 

Affinity Equity Partners Seeking Delisting of Lock & Lock Through Comprehensive Stock Exchange

By Douglas Kim

  • On 5 June, Affinity Equity Partners (AEP) announced that it is seeking a delisting of Lock&Lock (115390 KS) shares through a comprehensive stock exchange. 
  • It has been reported that the second tender offer failed. Only 1.5% of the outstanding shares participated in the second tender offer, falling short of the 9.5% participation required.
  • Affinity plans to transfer the shares of Lock&Lock held by an overseas corporation to a domestic corporation (investment-in-kind) and then go through a comprehensive stock exchange procedure.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Close Deletions in June

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, there are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion zone and could be removed from the index at the June rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.6% and a one-way trade of A$83m.
  • There are 6 stocks with over A$5m to trade from passive trackers but the impact on the stocks is not very high.

Guzman Y Gomez IPO – The Negatives – Lawsuits and Management Churn

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guzman Y Gomez plans to raise around US$160m in its Australian IPO.
  • GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Lululemon 1Q’24 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Lululemon was facing some really thorny questions from Mr. Market ever since 4Q’23 earnings. Today’s earnings should help calm some nerves.
  • Here are my highlights from tonight’s call. Sales Growth by Region At first glance, one may find confirmation to plenty of concerns for LULU. US sales, which was ~61% of overall sales this quarter, grew by only 2%.
  • Growth momentum in international markets, especially in China helped mask the weakness in the US.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Hyundai Motor, Webtoon Entertainment, Alibaba Group Holding , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Midea Group Co Ltd A, CP Axtra , Vera Bradley and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Value-Up Tax Support Revealed by End of June: Local Market Eyes Corporate Tax Cut Beneficiaries
  • Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – The Positives – Just Turned Profitable
  • China E-Commerce: Stabilizing Property Market Matters a Lot
  • Companies with High Corporate Governance Practices Have High ROE, but Not Vice Versa
  • Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Even in the Face of Challenges, There Is Still Investment Value
  • CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) – Symbiotic Alliance
  • VRA: 1Q Preview: Looking Forward to the New Day; Reiterate Buy, $10 PT
  • Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Korea Revenue Declined, JP Acquisition to the Rescue


Value-Up Tax Support Revealed by End of June: Local Market Eyes Corporate Tax Cut Beneficiaries

By Sanghyun Park

  • A high-ranking official from the local financial regulatory authority has confirmed to several local media outlets that the tax benefits for the value-up program will be unveiled this month.
  • Corporate tax cuts and separate taxation on dividend income will be included. The short-term impact at the time of the announcement will likely be more significant for corporate tax cuts.
  • Local market is focused on screening large companies within the KOSPI 200 that have substantial pre-tax profits in anticipation of the corporate tax cut momentum to be announced this month.

Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – The Positives – Just Turned Profitable

By Ethan Aw

  • Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its US IPO.
  • Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content. 
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

China E-Commerce: Stabilizing Property Market Matters a Lot

By Eric Chen

  • A stabilizing property market matters more than other factors such as industry rivalry and shareholder return policies for the performance of leading China e-commerce players in our view.
  • China’s worst property market downturn is probably behind us. This will gradually help restore consumer confidence and lift consumer propensity to spend, improving growth outlook for China e-commerce sector.
  • We believe China e-commerce players will in general benefit from a stabilizing housing market. Alibaba remains the most attractive play in the space. 

Companies with High Corporate Governance Practices Have High ROE, but Not Vice Versa

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies in the 0% to 8% ROE group have low stock valuations and are in trouble because they are unable to step into value-creating management.
  • Companies in this group, which includes many prime market listed companies, have done what is required by Corporate Governance Code, but could not take action to increase their ROE.
  • The lack of significant differences in corporate governance practices for group with ROEs above 10% is due to foreign ownership not being significantly differentiated from other groups.

Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Even in the Face of Challenges, There Is Still Investment Value

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although Midea’s performance keeps growing, it is difficult for the home appliance industry to return to rapidly growing incremental market as it was during the robust development of real estate.
  • As Midea’s To C business encounters growth bottleneck, To B business has become new performance driver and second growth curve, but several new businesses are facing challenges in 24Q1.
  • For mature leading enterprises in home appliance industry, a valuation of 10-20x PE is reasonable, which means market value of RMB370-740 billion, assuming 2024 net profit would reach RMB37 billion.

CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) – Symbiotic Alliance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) is a merger upon a merger combining the Makro wholesale business and the Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses, along with a hybrid mall operation. 
  • The combined entity continues to realise operational synergies in sourcing and logistics, with a strong B2B element. Omnichannel makes up more than 16% of sales and is growing rapidly.
  • CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) provides an alternative retail exposure to its parent CP ALL (CPALL TB) with ongoing restructuring benefits still to be realised. Valuations look attractive relative to growth.  

VRA: 1Q Preview: Looking Forward to the New Day; Reiterate Buy, $10 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $10 price target and projections for Vera Bradley with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results before the open on Wednesday.
  • We believe, more than the 1Q results, which we expect to reflect the company’s desire to reduce inventory and start afresh, will be management commentary on their new relaunch of the Vera Bradley brand.
  • We expect the “New Day,” which will launch on July 11th, to focus on core styles/categories, a new store look and expanding the appeal of Vera Bradley to a wider range of customers.

Webtoon Entertainment Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Korea Revenue Declined, JP Acquisition to the Rescue

By Ethan Aw

  • Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its US IPO.
  • Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Consumer: JD.com , Pop Mart International Group L, GS Retail, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Carnival Corp, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, OPAP SA and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)
  • Pop Mart (9992 HK):  Accelerating Momentum Internationally; Raising My Estimates
  • GS Retail: Equity Spin Off of Parnas Hotel and Freshmeat Subsidiaries
  • Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?
  • Carnival Corporation &Amp; Plc (CCL) – Tuesday, Mar 5, 2024
  • BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Tough Comps Not an Issue; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT
  • OPAP – Steady progress towards FY24 guidance


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

By Brian Freitas


Pop Mart (9992 HK):  Accelerating Momentum Internationally; Raising My Estimates

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • In 1Q24, Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)‘s international sales grew around 250% yoy, and made up around one quarter of sales (vs. 17% of sales in 2023). 
  • I now expect 39% sales growth in 2024, driven by 140% yoy growth in the international business and 18% growth in domestic China business. 
  • I further expect a 50% yoy growth in net profit growth in 2024 driven by a 0.8ppt increase in gross margin and 0.5ppt in operating leverage. 

GS Retail: Equity Spin Off of Parnas Hotel and Freshmeat Subsidiaries

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 June, GS Retail (007070 KS) announced that it will spin off Parnas Hotel and Freshmeat subsidiaries to simplify its business structure and enhance shareholder value.
  • The company plans to create a new entity tentatively called Parnas Holdings which will include Parnas hotel and Freshmeat (a meat processing company). 
  • We have a positive view of GS Retail’s decision to conduct this equity spin off which simplifies the business structures and it could raise the valuation multiples of GS Retail. 

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The market’s assumption of no special dividends in Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)‘s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. 
  • Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. 
  • A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF’s share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.

Carnival Corporation &Amp; Plc (CCL) – Tuesday, Mar 5, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Carnival Corporation is the world’s largest cruise ship operator with a large fleet and significant market share
  • The company was severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, halting service for 15 months and taking on substantial debt
  • Since resuming cruises in July 2021, Carnival has seen a rebound in revenues driven by strong demand for post-COVID travel, but still faces challenges with cashflow and debt sustainability

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Tough Comps Not an Issue; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the June catalog.
  • Despite the return of normalized comparisons, as supply chain issues began to normalize last year, June was another solid month for Betterware, as the catalog registered further SKU growth, continued higher levels of newness, and lower discounting.
  • Further, these results were achieved despite the company pulling back from prior categories (Better Kids and Pets), making the YoY gains even more impressive.

OPAP – Steady progress towards FY24 guidance

By Edison Investment Research

OPAP delivered good revenue growth in Q124 while profitability declined, mainly due to the upfront investment to support a major new product launch, which should boost revenue as the year progresses and provide better leverage on the higher cost base. The broad message is of strong online growth with resilience in its land-based activities, which gives management confidence to reiterate its guidance for the year.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Webtoon Entertainment, Nagatanien Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , Trip.com, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Golf Digest Online, Garrett Motion and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Webtoon Entertainment IPO Preview
  • Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP): Marunouchi Capital-Sponsored MBO at JPY3,100
  • Another Day Ending in Y, Another MBO Done Too Cheap. Today? Nagatanien (2899 JP).
  • China Consumption Weekly (3 Jun 2024): Alibaba, Alibaba Pictures, Li Auto, JD.com, JD Health
  • Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50
  • Only Seriousness of Shareholder Return Can Judge Change in Management in 1 Year After TSE’s Request
  • Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – 1Q FY24/12 Profits Down YoY Is Temporary
  • GTX: Ice Unfrozen


Webtoon Entertainment IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Webtoon Entertainment is getting ready to complete its IPO on the NASDAQ exchange in 2H 2024. Webtoon Entertainment is a subsidiary of Naver Corp (035420 KS).
  • Webtoon is seeking to raise as much of US$500 million at a valuation of US$3 billion to US$4 billion.
  • Webtoon Entertainment is one of the largest Korean company related IPOs in 2024. 

Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP): Marunouchi Capital-Sponsored MBO at JPY3,100

By Arun George

  • Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP) recommended a Marunouchi Capital-sponsored MBO at JPY3,100, a 38.4% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The offer period is from 4 June to 16 July.
  • While not a knockout bid, the offer represents a five-year high and requires a 58% minority acceptance rate. This is a done deal with payment commencing from 23 July.  

Another Day Ending in Y, Another MBO Done Too Cheap. Today? Nagatanien (2899 JP).

By Travis Lundy

  • MitCorp – the largest shareholder – and the Nagatani family – today announced an MBO where they will buy a classic ubiquitous brand at an Adjusted EV of 5.4x EBITDA.
  • The equity check appears to buy at ~2.5x Mar27-29 average FCF but they probably have 50% of the shares in the bag. Retail, or who they sell to, matter.
  • There is room for a noisy activist to get involved here and disrupt the retail ownership. But there are very few of those around. And none in it now.

China Consumption Weekly (3 Jun 2024): Alibaba, Alibaba Pictures, Li Auto, JD.com, JD Health

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba Pictures’ revenue increased by 44% YoY and EBTIDA increased by 61% in the March quarter.
  • Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics network, plans to purchase fresh food from the places of origin.
  • Li Auto finished a round of layoff, in which headcount was reduced to 22,000 from 30,000.

Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins
  • We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing
  • After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view

Only Seriousness of Shareholder Return Can Judge Change in Management in 1 Year After TSE’s Request

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since companies with higher foreign ownership have better profitability and corporate governance practices, it can be inferred that the overseas investor engagement has improved the company’s profitability and corporate governance.
  • If the company’s management has changed to value-creating management through the overseas investor’s engagement, the company isn’t expected to change to value-creating management in just one year after “TSE’s request”.
  • Many companies that do not receive overseas investor engagement have more room for improvement in aspects of management strategy execution and will be evaluated over time for improvements in profitability.

Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – 1Q FY24/12 Profits Down YoY Is Temporary

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Numerical targets for FY24/12 initial guidance are shown in the exhibit below.
  • Despite initial guidance for consolidated OP of ¥800mn, an increase of ¥420mn (+110.3% YoY), the Company cites conservatively forecasting non-operating and extraordinary items such as interest expenses, restructuring costs, and exchange rate fluctuations for initial guidance for ordinary profit break-even and a net loss of (¥600mn) for profit attributable to owners of parent (see P2).
  • Key initiatives and expectations for 2024 include: 1) in Japan, aim to provide more data-oriented and efficient services (online golf equipment sales GPM improving after 4Q inventory adjustment), 2) GOLFTEC golf lesson cash sales set to improve on coach issue addressed and marketing campaigns such as “7 shots better,” and 3) expand SkyTrak sales distribution channels. 

GTX: Ice Unfrozen

By Hamed Khorsand

  • In the month since GTX reported first quarter results, there have been more industry news pointing towards automobile models benefiting GTX. 
  • Automakers are indicating to using ICE and hybrid for longer than expected, which should contribute to GTX’s ability to generate free cash flow beyond the next couple of years.
  • We continue to expect 2024 sales to skew to the second half of the year, but GTX should generate adequate free cash flow to repurchase shares and reduce debt. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Star Entertainment Group, SHEIN, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Deckers Outdoor, Aisin , Vf Corp, Ralph Lauren, elf Beauty Inc, Target Corp, BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – The May Basket (April Basket +2.3 to +6.3% Rtn)
  • SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter ‘de Minimis’ Rules
  • Engagement Keeps Widening the Profitability Gap Between the Top and Bottom Companies in Market Cap
  • Deckers Outdoor Corporation: These Are The 5 Fundamental Factors Driving Its Performance! – Financial Forecasts
  • Aisin – 141% Profit Growth, With Future to Have More Sales for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
  • V.F. Corporation: Expansion of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel & Other Major Drivers
  • Ralph Lauren Corporation: Will Its Focus on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel Growth Especially In Asia Pay Off? – Major Drivers
  • e.l.f. Beauty Inc.: Will The Strong Growth in Sales and Market Share Last? – Major Drivers
  • Target Corporation: How Is The Continuing Growth In Private Labels Expected To Impact The Top-Line? – Major Drivers
  • BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings: Expanding Locations & Membership Base & Other Major Drivers


Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – The May Basket (April Basket +2.3 to +6.3% Rtn)

By Travis Lundy

  • I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article from June 2022 shows.
  • The general gist: retail investors in Australia will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.
  • The portfolio worked well in April. Now we let April ride and add the May basket.

SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter ‘de Minimis’ Rules

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Several US customs brokers have been suspended under new, tighter rules
  • The new rules could make ‘de minimis’ imports slightly more difficult
  • Whether it lists in London or NYC, additional rule changes could threaten SHEIN

Engagement Keeps Widening the Profitability Gap Between the Top and Bottom Companies in Market Cap

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with larger market capitalizations tend to have higher profitability and valuations, and those companies have higher foreign ownership.
  • Given that board practices improved and that valuations, highly correlated with foreign ownership, are higher for companies with larger market capitalizations, this can be due to engagement of overseas investors.
  • If this hypothesis is correct, the gap between the top and bottom market capitalization companies will widen further as it takes a certain time for engagement to pay off.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation: These Are The 5 Fundamental Factors Driving Its Performance! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • In the fourth quarter fiscal of 2024, Deckers Brands achieved record revenue growth of 18% compared to the previous year, almost reaching $4.3 billion of annual revenue.
  • Gross margin increased by a considerable 530 basis points from last year to 55.6%, and earnings per share rose by 51% to $29.16.
  • These results reflect Deckers’ successful long-term strategies and the hard work of its employees.

Aisin – 141% Profit Growth, With Future to Have More Sales for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Aisin is already achieving strong growth, across many markets, and this should continue with more sales into EV and HEV markets
  • Financial strength is improving, with gearing moving lower, and debt/ebitda moving lower
  • Balance sheet clean up can lead to some volatility, but overall a general positive, as is the focus on capital management

V.F. Corporation: Expansion of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • From the Q4 2024 Earnings of VF Corporation, it can be inferred that the company is working on a transformation strategy named Reinvent to return to long-term growth.
  • The company seems to be undergoing significant changes both structurally and operationally.
  • Reinvent’s primary focus is on restructuring the U.S. business, cost base adjustment, and balance sheet enhancement.

Ralph Lauren Corporation: Will Its Focus on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel Growth Especially In Asia Pay Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Based on the recent earnings, Ralph Lauren Corporation demonstrated credible fiscal performance despite the ongoing uncertainties of the global business climate.
  • The company remained resilient with the successful execution of its Next Great Chapter Accelerate plan.
  • On a positive note, President and CEO, Patrice Louvet, highlighted the progress made on several fronts.

e.l.f. Beauty Inc.: Will The Strong Growth in Sales and Market Share Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • e.l.f. Beauty reported a solid 2024 fiscal fourth quarter, hitting a significant milestone of over $1 billion in net sales.
  • The company grew net sales by 77%, exceeding expectations.
  • Q4 marked the 21st consecutive quarter of both net sales growth and market share gains.

Target Corporation: How Is The Continuing Growth In Private Labels Expected To Impact The Top-Line? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Target Corporation reported its Q1 2024 financial results that were largely in line with its own expectations, while outlining various strategies and initiatives aimed at bolstering growth and profitability.
  • Despite the challenging economic environment and volatility in consumer spending patterns, Target remains resilient, with its profitability continuing to benefit from prudent cost management and ongoing investments in strategic growth initiatives.
  • However, softer trends in discretionary categories, particularly Home and Hardlines, may continue to pressure sales in the near term.

BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings: Expanding Locations & Membership Base & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., an American wholesale club chain reported its first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2024.
  • The results from the call were mixed, with continued strong growth in membership fees and market share, supported by robust traffic and unit growth.
  • However, the team cautioned that the first quarter’s robust projections could be challenging given the previous year’s inflation dynamics.

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Daily Brief Consumer: MINISO Group Holding and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 31 May 2024); Private Tech, Energy/Financial SOEs See BIG Net Buys


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 31 May 2024); Private Tech, Energy/Financial SOEs See BIG Net Buys

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$29.7bn on small two-way volumes. Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) dropped to #4 this week but SOE buying dominated.
  • It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, and the KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, but it continues.
  • Valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows – national team and otherwise.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Mitsubishi Motors, Bloks Group, PDD Holdings, Modine Manufacturing Co, Guess? Inc, Dixon Technologies India Ltd, Urban Outfitters, Global-e Online , Lowe’s Companies Inc, Skyline Champion and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-May 2024 Estimates
  • Bloks Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • PDD Holdings: Will The Focus On Agricultural Strategy Convert Into Positive Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Modine Manufacturing Company: Will The Recovery in Heating
  • GES: 1Q Review; Creating a Powerful Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT
  • Dixon Technologies- Forensic Analysis (Update)
  • Urban Outfitters: Impact Of New Facility On Their Logistics & Profitability & Other Major Drivers
  • Global-e Online Ltd.: Expanding Merchant Base and Launch Plans! – Major Drivers
  • Lowe’s Companies: Front-End Transformation and Investment in Technology! – Major Drivers
  • Skyline Champion Corporation: Can The Acquisition of Regional Homes Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-May 2024 Estimates

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • In this insight, we take a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index rebal event to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-May 2024.

Bloks Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs, and Huatai International.
  • Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character toys. Its portfolio contains both self-developed and renowned licensed intellectual property (IPs).
  • According to F&S, Bloks was China’s largest player in the assembly character toy segment with an approximate gross merchandise value (GMV) of RMB1.8bn in 2023.

PDD Holdings: Will The Focus On Agricultural Strategy Convert Into Positive Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PDD Holdings Inc., an innovative online retail company based in China, seems to show a strong future trajectory based on its first quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
  • The company surpassed its year-on-year growth with total revenue reaching RMB 86.8 billion, marking a 131% increase.
  • This impressive growth serves as a testament to PDD Holdings’s efforts to deepen its access and widely influence the consumer market.

Modine Manufacturing Company: Will The Recovery in Heating

By Baptista Research

  • Modine Manufacturing Company (Modine) reported upbeat performance for its fiscal 2024 with record sales and adjusted EBITDA being noted for the second consecutive year.
  • Sales increased by 5% to reach $2.4 billion while adjusted EBITDA surged by 48% to $314 million; a significant margin improvement indicating the company’s effective commitment to its 80/20 principle.
  • Modine successfully shifted its business to targeted markets with growth potential where its innovative solutions are well-regarded, leading to sustainable margins.

GES: 1Q Review; Creating a Powerful Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $37 price target for Guess?
  • and tweaking and further back-end loading our FY25 and FY26 projections after Guess?
  • announced 1QFY25 top and bottom line upside, driven by Europe and Domestic wholesale results, as the rag & bone acquisition proved to be a key positive and the company continues to take share in Europe.

Dixon Technologies- Forensic Analysis (Update)

By Nitin Mangal

  • Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN) growth is driven by mobile and EMS segment; majority of other businesses are muted in the last two years.  
  • The company is able to convert earnings to cash quickly but cash yield is close to zero.
  • The company has reported significant amount of refund liability, but is silent on its accounting policy. Other forensics takeaways include non-reconciliation of asset disposals, high forex risk, etc.

Urban Outfitters: Impact Of New Facility On Their Logistics & Profitability & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Urban Outfitters, Inc. had an exceptional first quarter for fiscal 2025, performing better than expected with four out of five brands posting record revenues leading to an overall revenue of $1.2 billion.
  • Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, and Nuuly all experienced double-digit growth, with record operating incomes reported for 3 of their brands.
  • These strong results, however, were somewhat tempered by continuous weak performance at the Urban Outfitters brand.

Global-e Online Ltd.: Expanding Merchant Base and Launch Plans! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q1 2024 earnings, Global-E Online Ltd reaffirmed its strong growth trajectory and bullish outlook for the rest of the year.
  • For Q1, the company reported growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV), revenues, and adjusted EBITDA, surpassing the forecasted range for the quarter.
  • GMV grew 32% YoY, revenues grew 24%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 47%.

Lowe’s Companies: Front-End Transformation and Investment in Technology! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lowe’s Companies reported its recent earnings and maintained the company’s expectations for fiscal 2024.
  • Their first quarter sales were $21.4 billion, with comparable sales down 4.1% from the same period last year.
  • Despite the continued pressure in DIY big ticket discretionary spending, the company delivered better-than-expected spring seasonal sales.

Skyline Champion Corporation: Can The Acquisition of Regional Homes Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In Fiscal 2024, Skyline Champion Corporation prioritized investments to offer integrated turnkey solutions for retail, financial services, and home completion.
  • They experienced some decrease year over-year in their unit volume.
  • However, the company reported over $2 billion in top-line revenue, indicating a solid financial year nonetheless.

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