Consumer Archives | Page 58 of 122 | Smartkarma

• We do not forecast any constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June but there could be capping changes for 7 stocks.
• Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 7.6% leading to a round-trip trade of US$2.4bn. 17 stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• Li Auto (2015 HK) will have the largest inflow while there will be big outflows from Meituan (3690 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), JD.com (9618 HK) and Tencent (700 HK). 

• ZEEKR, a rapidly growing premium EV maker, has successfully completed its IPO and raised ~$441M. The offering was priced at the top of the range at $21 per share.
• The company sold a total of 21M ADSs, up from the initial target of 17.5M shares. ZEEKR’s stock soared more than 30% following its strong debut on NYSE on Friday.
• Geely Auto, Mobileye and CATL have acquired ~14.3M ADSs and overall investor sentiment was positive. I believe ZEEKR may succeed as a high-volume EV maker worldwide.

• We summarize our gleanings from the conference call with Dream International (1126 HK) to better understand growth opportunities and future expansion plans.
• The company is expanding in Indonesia to increase its capacity by 30 million USD ( over 830 million USD). (capacity utilization for FY23:83%).
• Trading at 4x FY24e PE, with an 11.4% dividend yield and a 15-year average ROE of 20%, this is a stock worth exploring. 

• On 10 May, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
• The company plans to convene an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on 29 August to finalize on the switching of Cosmecca Korea listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
• Cosmecca Korea is one of the leading Korean ODM manufacturers of cosmetic products.

• The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
• Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 4.8bn of A-shares on high gross low net volume in the two days. NORTHBOUND bought Kweichow Moutai, banks, Haier Smarthome, etc.
• HUGE week in H vs A (since the 30 April close). This may be colouring foreigner activity in As quite a bit. 

• Most large companies initially estimate sales and profits conservatively, and CapEx, which is often planned more than a year in advance, isn’t often above plan.
• Companies have a cautious earnings outlook, but the market consensus still expects profit growth in FY2024. CapEx growth in the BOJ Tankan is expected to be slightly higher than profits.
• Assuming an 8.5% increase in CapEx for large manufacturing companies and a low single-digit growth in the recurring profit outlook, the level of cash on hand is unlikely to decrease.

• Lear Corporation’s record-setting first quarter revenues of $6 billion show an increase of 3%.
• Core operating earnings were up 6% at $280 million, while adjusted earnings per share rose 14% to $3.18.
• Operating cash flow matched that of the same period the previous year.

• SiriusXM Holdings Inc. delivered a strong financial performance for its first quarter of 2024, with an encouraging 7% year-over-year increase in advertising revenue to over $400 million.
• This growth in ad revenue, driven by a growing addressable advertising audience and a strengthening ad market, helped offset a slight 1% drop in subscription revenue.
• The firm’s adjusted EBITDA was up 4% year over-year and delivered a margin of 30%, up 1 percentage point from the previous year.

• The latest earnings from Molson Coors Beverage Company indicates a strong performance in their first quarter, with substantial growth in top and bottom lines and consistent achievement of their acceleration plan.
• The company’s net sales revenue surged by over 10%, while its underlying pretax income increased by nearly 69%, underpinned by significant margin improvement.
• Additionally, the company reaffirmed its guidance for the full year.

• The Clorox Company’s third-quarter financial results suggest a continuing recovery from the August cyberattack that affected its operations.
• Despite lower sales and significant investments in its brands, the company’s adjusted earnings per share exceeded its own expectations in the said quarter.
• Adjusting for the effects of the cyberattack, the company reported that Q3 sales performance was, for the most part, in line with the management’s expectations.

• Sysco Corporation reported a sequential improvement in restaurant foot traffic over Q3 2024, starting with a tough January and improving throughout the quarter.
• The company noted that traffic, not same-store sales, drives distributor case volume shipments, with Sysco’s 2.9% case growth enabling profitable market share increase for the quarter.
• The company delivered strong earnings growth in a challenging volume environment, delivering adjusted operating income growth of 8.4% while anticipating future improvements in local case volume.

• In its first quarter 2024, Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported adjusted earnings per share of USD1.46, and an adjusted segment operating profit of USD1.3bn, representing an on-year decrease of 24%.
• ADM also achieved a trailing 4-quarter average of 11.2% for its adjusted Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) during the same quarter, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and healthy cash flows.
• Although the global grain and oilseed supply is expected to increase throughout the year amid an anticipated improvement in weather conditions, ADM proactively managed the risk of falling margins by driving the structural earnings, ROIC, and cash flow generation, enabling the company to continue investing in its business and returning cash to its shareholders.

• Mondelez International had robust Q1 2024 with solid top line results, strong earnings, and free cash flow generation.
• The performance was buoyed by momentum in emerging markets where consumer confidence is high and categories are resilient.
• The company faced challenges such as disruption with European clients and boycott of Western products in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

• Starbucks’ second quarter fiscal year 2024 results reflect the challenges and opportunities the company faces in a changing marketplace.
• While global comparable store sales declined by 4% year-over-year and the company’s total revenue dipped by 1% to $8.6 billion, a decline in foot traffic in North America and a hefty decline of 11% in China being a few of the contributing factors.
• The company was also affected by severe weather conditions, causing a nearly 3% impact on both US and total company comp during the quarter.

• ADM’s stock has dropped by 22% due to an investigation into its Nutrition segment’s accounting practices
• Executives may have had incentives to inflate the segment’s profitability, potentially leading to a scandal
• While the situation presents a buying opportunity, the issue is unlikely to be as pervasive as Enron’s scandal and the underlying business is expected to survive.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $0.25 price target for Starco Brands with the company reporting 1Q24 (March) results after the close on Wednesday.
• We believe 1Q saw continued progress on multiple levels, with Whipshots rolling out new flavors and now in almost all 50 states, Soylent expanding their protein offerings, Art of Sport beginning its soft launch on Amazon and Skylar expanding new product categories and fragrances.
• As such, and with management remaining focused on driving cost savings and leveraging their relationship and knowledge of the aerosol-driven manufacturing segment, we remain focused on both top line and margin opportunities at STCB. We reiterate our Buy rating and $0.25 price target.

• 3QFY24 EPS was $0.21 versus a depressed $0.08 in 3QFY23 and above our $0.16 estimate.
• 3QFY24 EBITDA of $5.1 million beat our $4.6 million estimate and was up sharply from $3.3 million a year ago.
• EBITDA margin of 10.5% exceeded our 8.7% estimate, driven primarily by lower commissions and incentives as a percentage of sales than we expected (210 bps), as well as lower SG&A (70 bps).

• Stellantis has reported strong results in its Full Year 2023 Results, demonstrating the company’s high resilience even amid challenges.
• Stellantis’ CEO, Carlos Tavares reflected on the record net revenues, net profit, and free cash flow for the year, showing an increase of 6%, 11%, and 19% respectively.
• The CEO noted that Stellantis’ strategy is all about profitable growth.

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include Melco International Development (200 HK), Sino Land Co (83 HK), and ZJLD Group (6979 HK).

• Hotel rooms in China decreased by 5.4% compared to the previous year
• H World has maintained its position as a leading hotel operator in China with a diverse portfolio of brands
• Founder Qi Ji’s strong track record in the hospitality industry has contributed to H World’s success in navigating challenges and growing its presence in the industry.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) had a poor Q2-Q3 numbers, and investors sold off. 
• The recent uptick is driven by revenue growth and cost cutting exercises (mainly in wages) that improve margins.  
• Productivity may not stay at the same level thus Q2 24 numbers are key. Take your win first. 

• Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
• CCV released a solid Q3 FY24 unaudited trading update with revenue growth of 19% over the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $93.0m.
• The gross loan book has grown 9% to $292m, which is all the more impressive as the business transitions away from Small Amount Credit Contract (SACC) products due to regulatory change, more than offset by growth in other products, domestically and internationally.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, raising our pice target to $25 (from $14), and upping our projections for a.k.a. Brands after the company registered better-than-expected revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for 1Q24 and raised 2024 guidance, driven by strong domestic results, as all the company’s concepts continue to gain market share in the United States via new stores, expanding digital marketplace relationships and the “test and repeat” method driving newness and fashion excitement.
• Further, we believe the Australian operations, especially Culture Kings, are setting up for a 2H24 turn, with leaner inventories and better product mix.
• As such, even after raising our projections, we believe upside remains in 2H24 and 2025 and are confident raising our price target to $25 and reiterating our Buy rating on AKA.

• Profit margins boosted by cuts in personnel, R&D, CapEx, and corporate tax rates. Much of the improved free cash flow went onto the balance sheet instead of being invested.
• OP Margin’s sluggish growth indicates that the cost-cutting model is no longer working. Investments are needed to create products with higher gross margins.
• While the limitations of the cost-cutting model can be seen, ROE, which indicates the achievement of the management goal of increasing medium-to-long-term shareholder returns, is sluggish in many companies.

• Business Breakdowns podcast covers British American Tobacco with guest Evan Tindall
• British American Tobacco primarily sells tobacco, with significant presence in the US, Europe, and Asia
• Company’s profits are more weighted towards the US market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• IPAR reported first quarter results detailing how consumer demand for fragrances has yet to wane even in a difficult to compare period
• In a change of strategy than prior years, IPAR is spending more in the early parts of the year to build awareness for its lineup of products 
• With one quarter past, we believe Lacoste and Roberto Cavalli are additive to the investment story and not the year’s only topic

• I am long shares of Kambi (“Kambi” or the “Company”) because I believe the Company is worth over 170 – 200 SEK / share today – This represents a 20% – 32% margin of safety to the current share price of ~136 SEK
• If I am wrong about this, I think Kambi is its growing intrinsic value and will still be worth at least 200 SEK / share (likely closer to 250 SEK / share) over the next 2 – 4 years, which would generate a mid-teens IRR or higher from the current share price
• Several free options / catalysts (some of which I believe are inevitable) are not priced into the stock and could drive returns substantially higher (20%+ IRR). Multiple expansion is also a lever that could drive further returns.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We feel consensus overstates margin pressure for Alibaba’s March quarter results. We expect its group adjusted EBITA to deliver single-digit growth vs. investors’ concern about earnings retreat.
• March quarter should mark start of an earnings recovery cycle in our view, as improving China macro and well-executed business revamp plan put Alibaba back on growth track.
• This also means an end to its multiple contraction which lasted for five quarters. We see 50% upside on double-digit earnings growth and multiple expansion over next 12 months.

• Swiggy aims to raise US$1.25bn in its upcoming India IPO. The company has filed confidentially for its IPO, which is likely to be launched towards the end of the year.
• Swiggy, along with Zomato, operates a duopoly that has come to dominate the food delivery market in India. In 1H24, Swiggy serviced over 274,000 restaurants via its 370,000 delivery partners.
• In this note, we will take an early look at the company based on the publicly available financials. 

• IMAX Corp, listed on the NYSE, is a 71% shareholder of IMAX China, a HKEX listed subsidiary – in charge of the release of IMAX films in Greater China.

• IMAX HK is rather illiquid – 7.15 HK is a mere $0.93 USD – with no investor presentations, no earnings calls – again, as is common with ideas in this blog, we are dealing with a company that is more or less “unownable” for most, flies under the radar, and therefore sports a, for a lack of a better word, shite valuation.

• Whilst IMAX Corp, the parent company, trades at ~8x EBITDA, the “backwater” subsidiary IMAX HK, trades at a mere ~5x EBITDA, despite margins being more than 10 pts higher.

• Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) reported yet another high-quality quarter with 11%/18% YoY revenue/net profit growth on a flat YoY(%) volume quarter driven by mix improvement.
• Although there seems to be earnings upside, and the street was literally searching for it in the concall, management stuck to their 6.5%/9% revenue/net profit growth guidance for FY24.
• Trading at 50x FY24, the stock seems expensive, but the strong branding and order book implies very visible earnings growth into the future.  

• As we progress in earnings season in line with our previous Playbook, this one focuses on select consumer names. 
• Names discussed include Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN) , Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN) & Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN).  
• Most names expect a soft Q1, and SHOP is targeting the most aggressive expansion.

• The first quarter 2024 results of ADT Inc. highlight the company’s positive growth and future investment opportunities.
• The company continues to focus on its consumer-oriented core security and smart home business, serving a vast market.
• Being an industry leader, ADT benefits from its trusted brand, national footprints, and the ability to tap stable and predictable cash flows to service and reduce its debt obligations.

• Columbia Sportswear demonstrated solid management of its inventory and its operational costs.
• The company reported a 37% year-over-year reduction in inventory and the implementation of an inventory reduction plan that has reaped substantial benefits.
• Columbia Sportswear’s strong balance sheet supports its maneuvers to tackle the impact of coronavirus-induced disruptions and realign inventory.

• Harley-Davidson had a mixed performance in the recent result.
• The company delivered in line with expectations, reporting a 6% growth in North America, the most important region.
• However, this growth was offset by soft performances in Europe and the Asia Pacific primarily due to regional macroeconomic conditions.

• Colgate-Palmolive’s Q1 2024 earnings reveal a positive start to the year, with balanced top-line growth and consistent earnings per share growth.
• The company recorded organic sales growth across all four of its categories and all six of its divisions, as well as volume and pricing growth on a total company basis.
• This balanced growth enabled a 6% net sales growth, despite a nearly 4% headwind from foreign exchange.

• Mohawk Industries’ Q1 2024 earnings call detailed a challenging period marked by economic headwinds and mixed performance.
• The company’s net sales for the first quarter were $2.7 billion, a drop of 4.5% compared to the previous year.
• However, the adjusted earnings per share increased by 6% year-over-year to $1.86.

• The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in July. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.
• Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 5-16x ADV (10.1%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 4-42x ADV on the deletions.
• Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will be capped to 10% of the index weight while Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) is also close to the 10% cap.

• We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. 
• The upcoming autonomous driving (ADS) revolution has deep and fundamental implications in permanently cutting Meituan’s logistic cost;
• We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and raise TP to HK$150/share

• Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN) sells its Nepal casino business to Ability Games amidst allegations of connections to illegal betting and money laundering.
• The ED’s investigations into Mahadev Online Book reveal a Rs 3,916 crore scam, freezing of Rs 580.78 crore assets, and involvement of companies like Ability Games.
• CEO of Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN)mentioned in ED statement that they have agreed for 10Crs over and above the transaction value.

• Despite a slightly flatter revenue/margin trajectory outlook, we remain optimistic that ATRenew’s differentiated pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China will continue to drive outsized growth in transaction volumes, sales, fees, and profits over the long run.
• While RERE has meaningfully outperformed recently, we believe current levels for the stock still provide investors with an attractive entry point, as awareness and appreciation of the company’s business model, growth prospects, competitive positioning, and valuation disconnect increasingly take hold.
• Despite what we believe to be conservative inputs/assumptions, our DCF model suggests a wide disconnect between ATRenew’s fundamentals and the stock’s current price.

• The reason why the approval for the shareholder proposal on profit appropriation exceeded 40% is that the proposal was easy to understand and easy to get approval from other shareholders.
• Although domestic institutional investors don’t currently vote against a low ROE when it comes to improvement measures, they may take a more aggressive stance if ISS raises its ROE criteria.
• The trend of top management being reappointed even with continued low ROE is likely to continue for a while longer, but the time frame is definitely getting smaller.

• Cake Box PLC is a UK-based franchisor of specialist cake shops with over 200 franchise stores
• Strong financial foundation with high return on equity and owner-led management team
• Focus on egg-free cakes in off-high street locations has led to successful growth and plans for further expansion.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Café de Coral faced challenges during COVID-19 but is now showing signs of recovery with the removal of restrictions and return of tourists
• If revenues and operating margin return to pre-pandemic levels, the stock could trade at a favorable P/E ratio and dividend yield
• Strong shareholder confidence through additional share purchases indicates Café de Coral is poised for success in the post-pandemic market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• LEEF Brands (CSE: LEEF, OTCQX: LEEEF) is a scaled, vertically integrated operator in California.
• It holds the largest cultivation permit in Santa Barbara County, owns LEEF Labs, one of the state’s largest manufacturing companies, and has The Leaf dispensary in Palm Springs.
• The company recently successfully restructured its debt. 

• CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Huatai, ABC International, and GF Securities.
• CaoCao Inc (CaoCao) is a ride-hailing firm incubated by the Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (Geely).
• According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm has consistently ranked as the top three ride hailing platforms in China based on gross transaction value (GTV) between 2021-2023.

• Manufacturers utilize NXQ’s graphical interfaces and touchscreens to enhance user experience and operational efficiency in machinery.
• Nexteq PLC has introduced a new range of gaming cabinets with advanced features and enhanced performance.
• The company remains committed to delivering innovative solutions in multiple industries, prioritizing improved user experiences and operational efficiency through their technology.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Concurrent with its HK$34/share VGO, L’Occitane (973 HK)‘s disinterested shareholders may be entitled to a share scrip alternative. IF afforded, up to 5% of shares out can participate.
• The big unknown is whether you receive shares of the levered-up Bidco, at some as yet undetermined scrip ratio; or keep shares of L’Occitane as-is.
• To trigger the rollover option, 10% of disinterested shareholders need to express interest by the 15th May (a Hong Kong holiday btw). A deadline without details. 

• We believe revenue will grow by 6% YoY in 4Q24, but by 11% for FY2026 (roughly 2025 calendar year).
• We believe Alibaba has been actively raising its revenue growth, but this the effect cannot be seen in the short run.
• We conclude the stock has an upside of 46% and a price target of US$120.

• The HK$34/share offer price is final, which exceeds all-time high closing price of HK$33.60/share since IPO in 2010. EUR6 billion is equivalent to a PE of 52.17x, higher than peers.
• Deploying China’s sinking market is “a good story full of imagination”. However, it may fail to bring expected profits considering increasing competition/potential price war, leading to uncertain future performance growth.
• For minority shareholders, this privatization provides an attractive opportunity to monetise their investments at a premium over market price. We don’t think the current “technical bull market” to be lasting. 

• China after-school tutoring remains one of the most attractive and visible sectors in the next 2-3 years time frame. 
• Even though New Oriental Education & Techn (EDU US) had some hiccups in FY3Q24 results, they were mainly due to factors not related to the core after-school tutoring business.
• My sector top pick is China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK), as valuation is lower and growth is higher, though it has a much smaller market cap..

• Royal Caribbean Group has made impressive strides in reshaping the business in the first quarter of 2024.
• The company described its Q1 2024 as robust and experiencing an upward trajectory in business operations, bolstered by the consumers’ demand for vacation experiences.
• The results of Q1 2024 were significantly better than anticipated, with the company’s brands being stronger than ever and demand for vacation experiences showing consistent acceleration.

• -30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the fallout of severe supply shortages.
• “It’s important to underscore that the recent downturn in cocoa prices is primarily a result of trading maneuvers, not a realignment of market fundamentals,” analysts at Fitch Solutions’ BMI unit said in a note, adding they expect volatility to persist.
• Volatility spiked as bigger margin requirements spurred traders to close out positions, helping to drive aggregate open interest in cocoa futures to the lowest in more than a decade.

• Investment thesis for going long on Porch Group Senior Secured Convert in the mid 50s, with a 22.5% Yield to Maturity and potential for a 75% one-year return
• Option for higher risk tolerance investors to target the 2026 Notes in the 30s for more upside
• Capital structure and background information on Porch Group’s decline in the macro environment for housing, extreme weather-related losses, and involvement in a reinsurance fraud scandal with Vesttoo highlighted

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
• Pureprofile has reported a 6% increase in Q3 FY24 revenue to $10.9m and 49% decline in Q3 EBITDA to $0.5m.
• Q3 is seasonally the weakest quarter for PPL and EBITDA was affected, in part, by the change in executive remuneration policy to cash-based payments.

• Pool Corporation reported its latest Q1 earnings, posting $1.1 billion in net sales.
• Though a dip of 7% from the previous year, the figure is up 6% from the same period in 2021.
• The quarter’s performance marks the company’s fourth successive year of meeting or exceeding the $1 billion threshold in a comparatively slow seasonal quarter.

• Primo Water Corporation specializes in consumer drinking water products and services, focusing on the North American market
• Market leader in the water industry with strong growth potential and resilience in economic downturns
• Company undergoing operational improvements, attractive valuation, and compelling ESG story following the sale of its European business

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Macro trends for restaurant chains are all negative: Food prices rising faster than restaurant unit prices, part-time wages rising faster than full-time.
• Toridoll’s same store sales resuming long-term underperformance trend that was broken only briefly during the pandemic.
• Stock trades at 3x the market average PBR, despite merely average RoE. Technical support has broken down.

• Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) is a monopoly in the gin business in the Philippines with a 97% marketshare trading at 7x PE FY24 ( 10-Yr Revenue CAGR 15% YoY).
• After its Q1 results, it has 32% of the market cap in net cash and investments, a dividend yield of>7%, and a 5/10 Yr average ROCE of 37%/22%.
• We summarize what we learned from the annual report released on April 15th. We saw a long-term trend of increasing prices, consistent margin growth, balance sheet improvement, etc. 

• In addition to too much cash on hand to begin with, ROE is expected to continue to grow at a sluggish pace, as shareholder returns are less than profit growth.
• Given that we expect more companies to have stock price, P/B, and ROE on the agenda for the June AGM, more companies are expected to announce increases in shareholder returns.
• However, ROE is unlikely to increase significantly. Shareholder returns are certainly too small, but a more serious problem is the inability to find growth investment opportunities.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) and ZEEKR (ZK US) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: L’Occitane (973 HK), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Austal Ltd (ASB AU). 

• Tally 47 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
• One new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: L’Occitane (973 HK)‘s VGO from major shareholder, Reinold Geiger. A deal for KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP) is apparently imminent. 
• Key updates took place on: CSR Ltd (CSR AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK), and Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP).

• Geely-Backed ZEEKR set terms for U.S. IPO: EV maker offers 17.5M American depositary shares (ADSs) at the price range of $18-$21, implying a market cap of ~$4.8B at the midpoint.
• Geely Auto, Mobileye and CATL have indicated a non-binding interest in subscribing for an aggregate of up to ~$349M worth of the ADSs being offered in this offering.
• I have a positive view of ZEEKR IPO as the offering will be priced significantly below last round valuation of ~$13B.  

• Altria Group recent 2024 first quarter earnings highlighted numerous key insights into the company’s performance and future prospects.
• Altria’s CEO, Billy Gifford, highlighted that the company made significant progress despite the challenging business environment.
• The company is also committed to investment returns, as demonstrated by its sale of a portion of its investment in ABI and the subsequent expansion of its share repurchase program.

• Comcast Corporation reported Q1 earnings recently highlighted by a strategic execution where the company maintained dominance in a competitive and evolving market.
• The company’s resilient capital allocation strategy and strong balance sheet place it in a favorable position, allowing it to invest aggressively in its six diverse growth businesses- Residential Broadband, Wireless, Business Services, Theme Parks, Studios, and Streaming.
• These sectors made up more than 55% of the company’s total revenue in Q1, and this proportion is set to grow.

• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) has performed well in the first quarter of 2024, with solid consolidated sales growth and double-digit earnings per share (EPS) growth.
• Key drivers of this performance include healthy momentum in its U.S. refreshment beverages and international segments, alongside a significant sequential recovery in U.S. Coffee results.
• This strong start to the year has enhanced the visibility of KDP’s unchanged growth outlook for 2024.

• In mid-January, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
• The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We are weeks ahead of the TSE and we have all the links.
• We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links to every document, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.

• Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) showed a weak print, with sales down 10% YoY and profitability flat for Q1 FY24. Consumption was weak locally despite strong Bali tourism. 
• On the positive side, the company improved its net cash position to substantially to 900 bn Rph ( or 6% of Mkt Cap) and expanded margins by 400 bps YoY. 
• Trading at 13x FY23 PE (with a 7% dividend yield assuming a 100% payout), there is great value in this market leader (60% Mkt share) of beer consumption in Indonesia.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Lippo Karawaci
• Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
• MGM China Holdings
• SK Hynix

• Hilton has reported its first-quarter results for 2024, which the company states have continued to demonstrate the strength of Hilton’s business along with its development story.
• Although the company’s RevPAR growth found itself at the lower end of its guidance, both adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS exceeded predictions significantly.
• Some of Hilton’s newly announced partnerships and portfolio additions have solidified its confidence in future growth.

• Tempur Sealy International (TPX) is the industry leader in the mattress market, consistently gaining market share and outperforming competitors
• Despite a cyclical downturn in the mattress industry post-COVID, TPX is experiencing secular share gains and margin improvements
• TPX’s pending acquisition of Mattress Firm presents an attractive opportunity for investors due to its reasonable valuation and potential for growth in the years ahead

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• In the first quarter of 2024, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc., had a 3.4% comparable store sales growth, which was primarily driven by mid-single-digit comps in Professional.
• This marked continuous strong top line sales results and was a testament to consistent execution across all 6,200+ stores.
• The company noted that its store volumes continued to grow despite the company’s size and market share gains over the years.

• Criteria for IPOs aren’t a major issue. TSE is concerned that many companies will be in jeopardy of being delisted if the criteria for maintaining listing are raised.
• TSE will likely make “request” to Growth Market listed companies to increase their market capitalization if the criteria for maintaining listing are not raised.
• From 2025, delisting and subsequent re-listing through M&A and MBOs is expected to increase, which will lead to more investment opportunities.

• The NIFTY Index kept rising for the past few months but has stalled its advance since March. It may be about to pullback and lose some gains, in May.
• The index is currently up 2 weeks in a row, not yet strongly overbought but our model say that from a time perspective it could start to pullback next week.
• If the index does not start to pullback soon, it could rally for another 2-3 weeks.

• We are initiating coverage of Webuy Global (WBUY) with a $0.85 target valuation.
• Webuy Global is a community-based buying group platform that sells groceries, fresh produce, and packaged travel tours through its app in Indonesia and Singapore.
• The company is attempting to leverage its customer relationships to expand into additional markets where group buying has shown promise, like insurance.

• Fourlis Group sales in 2023 increased by 10% on a comparable basis, excluding Intersport Turkey and The Athlete’s Foot sales, reaching €521.3m.
• There was a significant increase in EBITDA by 21.8%, reaching €48.2m in 2023, compared to €39.6m in the previous year, due to the rationalization of operating costs and an increase in operating leverage.
• The group’s retail business showed robust performance, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth.