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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 25
0

Daily Brief China: Guangzhou Automobile Group, Tencent, International Housewares Retail and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As
  • China Consumption Weekly (25 Dec 2023): Tencent, NetEase, NIO, Xpeng, Alibaba, Meituan, Douyin
  • International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

By Travis Lundy

  • The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished.
  • STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.

China Consumption Weekly (25 Dec 2023): Tencent, NetEase, NIO, Xpeng, Alibaba, Meituan, Douyin

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and NetEase’s stock prices plunged after the release of the new law about online game.
  • China Passenger Car Association expects NEV will grow by 37% for 2023.
  • NIO got US2.2 billion investment from CYVN Holdings based in Abu Dahbi.

International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start

By Sameer Taneja

  • H1 FY24 (May-Oct 2023) was off to a sluggish start for the company, with a 4.7%/35% decline in revenue/adjusted NPAT. 
  • The company cited soft demand, loss of business days due to inclement weather, one-offs in relocation or warehouses to efficient locations, and increased staff costs for poor profits.
  • Post the correction, the stock trades at a trailing PE of 11x and dividend yield of 8%, but we will have to wait further out as business conditions are worse. 

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | 8 Weeks of Wins; Dear Santa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | 8 Weeks of Wins; Dear Santa
  • Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

Ohayo Japan | 8 Weeks of Wins; Dear Santa

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.2%; PCE 3.2% v 3.3% exp; Nike -12% on job cuts, tough macro
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.3% v cash. JPY142; Japan approves fiscal budget; Nexon ADR steadies after China game rout
  • Japan: Dalton’s Xmas greetings to management & three shareholder proposals: effective capital allocation, strong alignment of interest, and a board with high independence and diversity

Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

By Daniel Hellberg

  • For segments we cover — express, containers, tourism — 2023 was challenging
  • In this note we highlight each segment’s key trends and themes from 2023
  • We conclude with a look at 2023 share performance and a peak into 2024

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150
  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) – JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power
  • KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

By Travis Lundy

  • The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished.
  • STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150

By Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) – JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power

By Arun George

KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • Fast entry is now permissible for KOSDAQ 150. Within 15 trading days post-listing, the average daily total market cap must rank among the top 30 ordinary stocks on KOSDAQ.
  • KOSDAQ 150 will also allow newly established entities in corporate spin-offs, following KOSPI 200’s model. Inclusion is granted if the subsidiary ranks within KOSDAQ 150’s top 160 (80%).
  • The ₩1.5T cutoff for KOSDAQ 150 fast entry suggests potential candidates nearing this threshold, like Oasis, Kurly (and maybe Kakao Entertainment).

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Year Ahead for Markets 2024 and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Year Ahead for Markets 2024

Year Ahead for Markets 2024

By Gerryl Pay

  • Surprising a pessimistic market, global liquidity rebounded, prompting expectations of increased buying pressure in the new year, as the Fed appears to remain on hold.
  • The crypto market is expected to benefit from a structural shift, with Bitcoin (BTC) emerging as a frontrunner after breaking out of a prolonged bear market consolidation.
  • Solana is anticipated to outperform in the coming year, driven by mean reversion, market share normalization, and narrative developments.

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves
  • 2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation
  • China Consumption Weekly (25 Dec 2023): Tencent, NetEase, NIO, Xpeng, Alibaba, Meituan, Douyin
  • Quantum Solutions (2338 JP): Look Again at Small Cap Play on AI Servers and Web-3.0 Gaming
  • International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start

Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nike’s Q2 results lead to a 12% drop in its shares, affecting sector peers Onon, Skechers, and Asics with significant declines.
  • Challenging trading conditions in China and Europe, coupled with a subdued digital traffic outlook from Nike, raise broader concerns for the sector.
  • Asics stock declines 20% post-Nike’s fall, presenting an attractive buying opportunity with an estimated 20% upside, positioning Asics as a cost-effective play in the global performance running market.

2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Despite being a hated stock among the Super Sevens, Apple shares are up >51% YTD this year. Apple has had little to claim for within captivating AI hype.
  • Apple is not a first mover. Its reputation is of a late comer. But its superior products with mind bending experiences blows competition out of the water.
  • Outperformance of iPhone 15, deepening services penetration, and roll out of AI-features will propel Apple to a USD 4 trillion market cap in 2024.

China Consumption Weekly (25 Dec 2023): Tencent, NetEase, NIO, Xpeng, Alibaba, Meituan, Douyin

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and NetEase’s stock prices plunged after the release of the new law about online game.
  • China Passenger Car Association expects NEV will grow by 37% for 2023.
  • NIO got US2.2 billion investment from CYVN Holdings based in Abu Dahbi.

Quantum Solutions (2338 JP): Look Again at Small Cap Play on AI Servers and Web-3.0 Gaming

By Scott Foster

  • Quantum Solutions has given up 63% of its recent gain but has more NVIDIA GPU related orders in the pipeline. Keep an eye on the stock and the news flow.
  • The recent upward revision to sales and profit guidance has been followed by the announcement of a capital and business tie-up with Hajime Tabata’s JP Games.
  • The addition of Web-3.0 gaming to distribution of AI servers and Arm-based edge computing hardware could change the nature of the investment.

International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start

By Sameer Taneja

  • H1 FY24 (May-Oct 2023) was off to a sluggish start for the company, with a 4.7%/35% decline in revenue/adjusted NPAT. 
  • The company cited soft demand, loss of business days due to inclement weather, one-offs in relocation or warehouses to efficient locations, and increased staff costs for poor profits.
  • Post the correction, the stock trades at a trailing PE of 11x and dividend yield of 8%, but we will have to wait further out as business conditions are worse. 

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Newmont , Livent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
  • We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won’t be obvious to everyone. 
  • There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

By David Blennerhassett

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Benefit One Inc, MillerKnoll and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem
  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail
  • Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 2.2bn of A-shares on sharply lighter activity. Quieter all week.
  • Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

By David Blennerhassett

  • Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 
  • Hankook & Company (000240 KS)‘s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
  • If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

By Water Tower Research

  • Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.
  • The increase is the result of higher margin assumptions on a lower revenue forecast.
  • We are also reviewing and lowering our revenue assumptions for the remainder of FY24 and FY25. 

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

By Arun George

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22Dec23); CNOOC/Energy To The Buy Side; Tencent Heavily Sold, Again.

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies still. Hs up vs As only slightly. Liquid Hs were down vs As. 
  • SOUTHBOUND saw HK$144bn of net INflows on the week to 22 Dec, which was HK$4bn of Tencent net sales and net buying of a bunch of ETFs.
  • Some banks and energy names were top net inflows as a percentage of ADV. This week was heavy for SOUTHBOUND, quiet for foreigners, next week may be quiet for both.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Benefit One Inc, MillerKnoll and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem
  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail
  • Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 2.2bn of A-shares on sharply lighter activity. Quieter all week.
  • Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

By David Blennerhassett

  • Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 
  • Hankook & Company (000240 KS)‘s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
  • If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

By Water Tower Research

  • Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.
  • The increase is the result of higher margin assumptions on a lower revenue forecast.
  • We are also reviewing and lowering our revenue assumptions for the remainder of FY24 and FY25. 

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

By Arun George

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Financials: Embassy Office Parks REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (24th Dec 2023) – Embassy REIT, Muthoot Microfin, India Shelter, Inox, UBTech

ECM Weekly (24th Dec 2023) – Embassy REIT, Muthoot Microfin, India Shelter, Inox, UBTech

By Ethan Aw

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, things started to cool down into the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year ends.
  • On the placement front, most of the action continued to come from India. 

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