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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, JSW Steel Ltd, Shell , Crude Oil, Newmarket Corp, Sm Energy Co, Targa Resources, Amerigo Resources , Valvoline , Boise Cascade Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Cambodia Reaps Impressive Rubber Export Returns In 2025 Start
  • JSW Steel: Low Cost Capacity Expansion Underpin Premium Valuations
  • Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns
  • [ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather
  • NewMarket Corporation Struggles With Slipping Sales Despite Profit Surge – What’s Behind The Petroleum Additives Underperformance?
  • SM Energy: Can It Capitalize On The Exploration and Development Opportunities In The Uinta Basin?
  • Targa Resources: An Insight Into Its Permian Basin Expansion & Major Growth Catalysts!
  • ARG: Highlights from Our MVC Site Visit
  • Valvoline Is Winning Big Through High-Margin Premium Products & Rapid Customer Growth – But How Long Will This Last?
  • Boise Cascade Is Revamping Oakdale—Could This Bold Move Help Improve Margins?


Cambodia Reaps Impressive Rubber Export Returns In 2025 Start

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Jan-Feb 2025 returns from rubber exports up 24% year-on-year  
  • Cambodia focusing on high-yielding CRRI 12 and CRRI 19 clones  
  • ANRPC economist says strengthening processing sector key

JSW Steel: Low Cost Capacity Expansion Underpin Premium Valuations

By Rahul Jain

  • JSW Steel has grown its domestic steelmaking capacity at CAGR of 14% over the last 2 decades (2x industry) and at 25% lower costs
  • Gradual capacity ramp-up at recently completed expansion at Vijayanagar (5m) and actively pursuing 10-15mt of new capacity additions over the next 3-5 years
  • Valuations: JSW Steel trades at premium to its 5yr average EV/EBITDA likely due to a) impending imposition of a 12% safeguard duty b) superior capital allocation etc.

Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

By Suhas Reddy

  • Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.
  • As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets
  • Shell aims to save USD 5 – 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 – 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.

[ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.2m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.2k fall), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories rose by 29 Bcf for the week ending 28/Mar, exceeding analyst expectations of a 27 Bcf build. Inventories are 4.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Chevron sold its Texas gas assets for USD 525 million, while Exxon, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Aramco had their price targets cut.

NewMarket Corporation Struggles With Slipping Sales Despite Profit Surge – What’s Behind The Petroleum Additives Underperformance?

By Baptista Research

  • NewMarket Corporation has demonstrated notable financial performance in the fiscal year 2024, showing an increase in net income to $462 million or $48.22 per share, up from $389 million or $40.44 per share in the previous year.
  • The fourth quarter alone saw net income rise from $80 million to $111 million.
  • This growth can be attributed to various strategic decisions and operational efficiencies, although the company faced challenges related to sales and the broader inflationary environment.

SM Energy: Can It Capitalize On The Exploration and Development Opportunities In The Uinta Basin?

By Baptista Research

  • SM Energy Company’s latest earnings call highlights several critical aspects related to its 2024 financial performance and plans for 2025.
  • The company presented both opportunities and challenges that its investors might consider for devising an informed investment thesis.
  • On the positive side, SM Energy forecasts a 40% increase in free cash flow for 2025, supported by a 30% growth in oil production.

Targa Resources: An Insight Into Its Permian Basin Expansion & Major Growth Catalysts!

By Baptista Research

  • Targa Resources Corp has reported strong financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the full year, showcasing a period of significant growth and robust operational metrics.
  • The company achieved record volumes, particularly from its assets in the Permian Basin, which drove the record levels of NGL transportation, fractionation, and export volumes, exceeding initial forecasts.
  • This robust performance resulted in a 17% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, reaching $4.1 billion, and an adjusted free cash flow generation that facilitated a 50% increase in common dividends and substantial share repurchases.

ARG: Highlights from Our MVC Site Visit

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • We visited Amerigo’s MVC processing facility in Rancagua, Chile and were highly impressed with the site and plant, as well as the scale of the operation.
  • • The copper price increased substantially after Q4, positioning the Company for even stronger cash flow in Q1/25.
  • • For more information on ARG, you can find all our research on our website here and an interview we hosted with CEO Aurora Davidson, here.

Valvoline Is Winning Big Through High-Margin Premium Products & Rapid Customer Growth – But How Long Will This Last?

By Baptista Research

  • Valvoline Inc. reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 that were substantially in line with internal expectations, driven by a balanced mix of transaction and ticket growth.
  • Net sales for the quarter reached $414 million, representing an 11% increase year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $103 million.
  • Systemwide same-store sales grew 8%, supported by non-oil change revenue service penetration and improved customer retention.

Boise Cascade Is Revamping Oakdale—Could This Bold Move Help Improve Margins?

By Baptista Research

  • Boise Cascade’s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results reflect a mix of achievements and challenges.
  • For the full year, Boise Cascade recorded a net income of $376.4 million or $9.57 per diluted share.
  • This performance was supported by growth initiatives in their distribution business, notable capital investments aimed at bolstering their Engineered Wood Products (EWP) growth strategy, and significant capital returns to shareholders.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Xiaomi Corp, BigCommerce Holdings, Carta Holdings, Inc., Commvault Systems, SolarEdge Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • BigCommerce’s Targeted B2B Expansion Plan & 5 Factors That Are Changing The Game!
  • Carta Holdings (3688 JP) – A Year Focused on Strengthening Organizational Capabilities
  • Commvault Systems Powers Toward $1 Billion ARR With Bold Moves in Cybersecurity & Subscription Expansion!
  • SolarEdge Technologies: Will Its European Market Strategy & Competitive Positioning Help Alter The Playing Field?


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In the US, the ISM services index declined to 50.8 (52.9 e / 53.5 p) in March 2025, the lowest level since June 2024, albeit remaining in expansion territory for the ninth consecutive month.
  • Meanwhile, the March 2025 final S&P services PMI climbed to 54.4 (54.2 e / 51.0 p), but was stable compared to the preliminary reading of 54.3.
  • The composite PMI rose to 53.5 (53.5 e / 51.6 p). Separately, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 122.7 bn (USD 123.5 bn e / USD 130.7 bn revised p) in February. 

BigCommerce’s Targeted B2B Expansion Plan & 5 Factors That Are Changing The Game!

By Baptista Research

  • BigCommerce’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 earnings announcement revealed a mixed financial performance as the company navigates its transformational strategy towards more efficient and profitable operations.
  • The company’s non-GAAP operating income showed a remarkable improvement, surpassing $19 million, which is nearly double the original forecast, while operating cash flow reached $26 million, marking a $50 million increase from 2023.
  • These outcomes underscore BigCommerce’s effective cost management, attributed to decreased ineffective sales and marketing expenditure and a 10% headcount reduction.

Carta Holdings (3688 JP) – A Year Focused on Strengthening Organizational Capabilities

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In FY2024/12, CARTA HOLDINGS reported operating profit of JPY 2,139 mn (+64.4% YoY).
  • Given the achievement of securing an operating profit of JPY 4,973 mn in FY2021/12, the absolute level remains insufficient.
  • However, amid a challenging business environment where the transaction volume of high-margin reservation-based ads declined YoY for 11 consecutive quarters up to the April-June 2024 period, the Company achieved a V-shaped recovery as a result of structural reforms, including the withdrawal from unprofitable businesses and the implementation of a voluntary retirement program. 

Commvault Systems Powers Toward $1 Billion ARR With Bold Moves in Cybersecurity & Subscription Expansion!

By Baptista Research

  • Commvault Systems, Inc.’s third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results demonstrate a strong performance with some notable achievements and areas for consideration in the company’s path forward.
  • The company reported total revenue of $263 million, marking a 21% year-over-year growth.
  • Notably, subscription revenue grew by 39% to $158 million, highlighting increased momentum in SaaS services.

SolarEdge Technologies: Will Its European Market Strategy & Competitive Positioning Help Alter The Playing Field?

By Baptista Research

  • SolarEdge Technologies Inc. presented its operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024, while setting priorities for 2025.
  • The company has faced challenges, particularly in European markets, but has a clear strategic plan focusing on innovation, market share regaining, and operational efficiency.
  • The company reported disappointing financial results for the quarter, which reflected significant impairments and write-downs.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Regencell Bioscience Holdings, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt, Dogwood Therapeutics, Ensign Group, Fresenius Medical Care & , Immix Biopharma Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Is This Chinese Biotech Going Out of Business?
  • Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Guidance Reaffirmed, But Sluggishness To Stay Amid Falling Margins
  • CTSO: CytoSorbents reports 4th quarter and 2024 financial results which showed impressive product revenue growth that was above our expectations.
  • CTSO: CytoSorbents reports 4th quarter and 2024 financial results which showed impressive product revenue growth that was above our expectations.
  • DWTX: Interim Data for Phase 2b Trial in 4Q25
  • DWTX: Interim Data for Phase 2b Trial in 4Q25
  • The Ensign Group: An Insight Into Its Growth Through Acquisitions & Market Expansion!
  • Fresenius Medical Care’s Game-Changing HDF Treatment Slashes Mortality by 23%—Will the U.S. Catch Up?
  • Immix Biopharma — All eyes on NEXICART-2
  • Immix Biopharma — All eyes on NEXICART-2


Is This Chinese Biotech Going Out of Business?

By J Capital Research

  • This Nasdaq-listed, Hong Kong-based company hopes to apply Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) to significant illnesses like ADHD, but that seems unlikely. The company is a family affair, with all research provided by the CEO’s father, so one wonders how objective scientific assessment can be.
  • The stock surged by more than 700% in a month without patent approval, a buyout offer, or other notable news. The CEO funded a share buyback, but rather than demonstrating faith in the company, the repurchase looked suspiciously like a way to inflate the short-term share price, possibly for an equity issue or insider self- enrichment since the CEO’s compensation is tied to market capitalization.
  • This is a highly speculative business run by a family team from Hong Kong, thus little trusted in the U.S. and very volatile.

Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Guidance Reaffirmed, But Sluggishness To Stay Amid Falling Margins

By Tina Banerjee

  • During 9MFY25, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) reported 3% YoY revenue growth to ¥75B, mainly driven by the nursing care businesses.
  • Due to higher SG&A expenses, operating profit decreased 15% YoY to ¥7.2B and net profit was down 11% YoY to ¥5.9B.
  • Paramount Bed has reiterated FY25 guidance, which calls for 2% YoY revenue growth, while higher SG&A is expected to erode operating profit by almost 6% YoY.

CTSO: CytoSorbents reports 4th quarter and 2024 financial results which showed impressive product revenue growth that was above our expectations.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • CytoSorbents is commercializing its E.U. approved CytoSorb blood purification technology to treat life-threatening conditions in the intensive care unit and cardiac surgery.
  • The company also seeks U.S. and Canadian approval of a second product, DrugSorb-ATR, to reduce perioperative bleeding risk in patients on blood thinners during cardiac surgery.
  • Based on the results of its pivotal U.S. and Canadian STAR-T trial, the company submitted for FDA De Novo approval on September 27, 2024, and Health Canada on November 1, 2024, with regulatory decisions expected in 2025.

CTSO: CytoSorbents reports 4th quarter and 2024 financial results which showed impressive product revenue growth that was above our expectations.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • CytoSorbents is commercializing its E.U. approved CytoSorb blood purification technology to treat life-threatening conditions in the intensive care unit and cardiac surgery.
  • The company also seeks U.S. and Canadian approval of a second product, DrugSorb-ATR, to reduce perioperative bleeding risk in patients on blood thinners during cardiac surgery.
  • Based on the results of its pivotal U.S. and Canadian STAR-T trial, the company submitted for FDA De Novo approval on September 27, 2024, and Health Canada on November 1, 2024, with regulatory decisions expected in 2025.

DWTX: Interim Data for Phase 2b Trial in 4Q25

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On March 31, 2025, Dogwood Therapeutics, Inc. announced financial results for 2024 and provided a business update.
  • The company recently dosed the first patient in the Halneuron Chemotherapy Induced Neuropathic Pain (CINP) Phase 2b trial.
  • We anticipate interim data in the fourth quarter of 2025.

DWTX: Interim Data for Phase 2b Trial in 4Q25

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On March 31, 2025, Dogwood Therapeutics, Inc. announced financial results for 2024 and provided a business update.
  • The company recently dosed the first patient in the Halneuron Chemotherapy Induced Neuropathic Pain (CINP) Phase 2b trial.
  • We anticipate interim data in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Ensign Group: An Insight Into Its Growth Through Acquisitions & Market Expansion!

By Baptista Research

  • The Ensign Group’s recent quarterly earnings presents a comprehensive picture of the company’s operational and financial performance, accompanied by strategic insights for future growth.
  • Here’s an investment thesis and results summary reflecting both the positive aspects and potential challenges.
  • The company’s performance highlights strong operational momentum characterized by record clinical and financial results.

Fresenius Medical Care’s Game-Changing HDF Treatment Slashes Mortality by 23%—Will the U.S. Catch Up?

By Baptista Research

  • Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) reported its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, showcasing both achievements and areas needing attention as the company continues its strategic transformation.
  • The results reflect a period of organizational change and progress, with tangible financial improvements but also challenges that persist.
  • Beginning with the positives, FMC reported a notable 7.4% organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by both its Care Delivery and Care Enablement segments.

Immix Biopharma — All eyes on NEXICART-2

By Edison Investment Research

Immix’s FY24 results summarize a period of focus on its lead CAR-T asset, NXC-201, which is being developed for amyloid light chain amyloidosis. Recent newsflow reflects heightened clinical activity for the candidate as it progresses through the US-based Phase Ib/II NEXICART-2 clinical trial. Notably, following completion of the six-patient safety run-in portion of the study, the pace of enrolment has picked up for participants to be treated at the higher of the two tested doses; we expect the next interim data update in mid-2025. NXC-201 was granted regenerative medicine advanced therapy (RMAT) designation by the FDA, which may streamline its clinical development and subsequent approval process. We expect period-end net cash of $17.7m to provide a runaway into Q425, past interim readouts for NXC-201. Our valuation is largely unchanged at $126.3m or $4.6/share.


Immix Biopharma — All eyes on NEXICART-2

By Edison Investment Research

Immix’s FY24 results summarize a period of focus on its lead CAR-T asset, NXC-201, which is being developed for amyloid light chain amyloidosis. Recent newsflow reflects heightened clinical activity for the candidate as it progresses through the US-based Phase Ib/II NEXICART-2 clinical trial. Notably, following completion of the six-patient safety run-in portion of the study, the pace of enrolment has picked up for participants to be treated at the higher of the two tested doses; we expect the next interim data update in mid-2025. NXC-201 was granted regenerative medicine advanced therapy (RMAT) designation by the FDA, which may streamline its clinical development and subsequent approval process. We expect period-end net cash of $17.7m to provide a runaway into Q425, past interim readouts for NXC-201. Our valuation is largely unchanged at $126.3m or $4.6/share.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Makino Milling Machine Co, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., Pace Digitek Ltd, Griffon Corp, Siteone Landscape Supply, ATS , Southwest Airlines Co, Gibraltar Industries, GMS Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings
  • Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale
  • Pace Digitek Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Griffon Corporation: What Is Their Global Sourcing & Tariff Playbook That Could Help Them Stay Ahead of The Competition?
  • SiteOne Landscape Supply Ignites Growth With Aggressive Acquisition Spree in Key Markets!
  • ATS Corporation Gears Up for Margin Breakthrough—Here’s How It’s Turning Transportation Woes Into Wins!
  • Southwest Airlines Is Facing Turbulence: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Disrupting Its Turnaround Plan!
  • Gibraltar Industries: Expansion & Modernization in AgTech Business to Safeguard Competitiveness…
  • GMS Inc.: How Are They Dealing With Challenge of Declining Wallboard Volumes?


Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

By Travis Lundy

  • Nidec Corp (6594 JP) bid ¥11,000 for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April. 
  • A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in “legally binding bids.” No news on those yet, but we have a month.
  • Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec’s bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale

By Travis Lundy

  • There was a Nikkei article in December about the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) selling its interests in Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)
  • The stock popped. Then popped some more. It was not expensive yet, but no longer dirt cheap. Now the stock is falling as Trump Tariffs threaten to throttle exports.
  • The reasons why this takeout price could be “high” are unchanged. Tariffs meant to drive US-manufacturing don’t reduce need for forklifts. Logisnext is not badly placed.

Pace Digitek Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Pace Digitek Ltd (0180382D IN)  (PDL) is planning to raise about US$105m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunner for the deal is Unistone.
  • PDL provides multi-disciplinary solutions in telecom passive infrastructure, offering turnkey services across India, Myanmar, and Africa. Initially manufacturing passive equipment, it expanded into products, projects, O&M, and service solutions.
  • PDL transitioned from manufacturing passive telecom equipment to providing multi-disciplinary solutions, including telecom, energy, and ICT products, services, and turnkey projects, with a focus on O&M, renewables, and infrastructure development.

Griffon Corporation: What Is Their Global Sourcing & Tariff Playbook That Could Help Them Stay Ahead of The Competition?

By Baptista Research

  • Griffon Corporation’s fiscal first quarter of 2025 reveals a complex financial landscape, demonstrating both strengths and challenges.
  • The company reported robust free cash flow of $143 million, indicating a strong start to the fiscal year.
  • Griffon’s Home & Building Products (HBP) segment maintained revenue consistent with the previous year and achieved a 2% increase in EBITDA.

SiteOne Landscape Supply Ignites Growth With Aggressive Acquisition Spree in Key Markets!

By Baptista Research

  • SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting both challenges and strategic advancements.
  • The company concluded the year with a 6% increase in net sales, reaching $4.54 billion.
  • However, the year saw a 1% decline in organic daily sales, counteracted by a 7% boost from acquisitions.

ATS Corporation Gears Up for Margin Breakthrough—Here’s How It’s Turning Transportation Woes Into Wins!

By Baptista Research

  • ATS Corporation reported its third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing several positive and negative aspects of performance.
  • Positively, ATS experienced its second-highest bookings quarter in history, marking a 32% increase over the same quarter last year, driven by strong organic growth and acquisitions across various market verticals.
  • This has resulted in a significant backlog of approximately $2.1 billion, which offers good visibility for future revenue streams.

Southwest Airlines Is Facing Turbulence: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Disrupting Its Turnaround Plan!

By Baptista Research

  • The outlook for Southwest Airlines has become significantly murkier in recent weeks.
  • The low-cost carrier, once renowned for its no-frills reliability and customer-friendly policies, is now in the midst of the most aggressive transformation in its 53-year history.
  • From the sudden introduction of bag fees and basic economy to sweeping cost-cutting measures and a major executive reshuffling, Southwest is making a full pivot to stay competitive in a challenging environment.

Gibraltar Industries: Expansion & Modernization in AgTech Business to Safeguard Competitiveness…

By Baptista Research

  • Gibraltar Industries, Inc. recently announced its financial results and performance for 2024, providing a detailed analysis of its various business segments and future outlook.
  • The company’s results highlight both achievements and challenges, presenting a complex picture for potential investors.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2024, Gibraltar’s net sales dropped by 7.9%, primarily due to issues in the renewables market.

GMS Inc.: How Are They Dealing With Challenge of Declining Wallboard Volumes?

By Baptista Research

  • GMS Inc. demonstrated mixed performance in its fiscal third quarter of 2025 amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The company faced significant headwinds, which included deteriorating demand conditions, weather related disruptions, and tight lending environments, leading to project delays across its end markets.
  • As a result, GMS reported net sales of $1.3 billion, roughly flat year-over-year, which consisted of a 6.7% organic sales decline despite the contributions from recent acquisitions.

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Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, S&P 500 INDEX, NIFTY Index, Intercontinental Exchange, Equitable Holdings , DLocal, Ares Management and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Yoon’s Impeachment Confirmed: Key Timeline & Regime Change Trade
  • Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different and What It Signals
  • Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?
  • SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987
  • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): A Closer Look At Its Energy Sector Expansion & Innovation!
  • Equitable Holdings Is Looking To Reshape Wealth & Retirement—But Can It Truly Become A Major Financial Powerhouse?
  • DLocal Unlocks New Growth Avenues Through Emerging Market Penetration & Innovation in Payment Orchestration!
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Apr-2025): JD Property buying Brisbane estate for $153M.


Yoon’s Impeachment Confirmed: Key Timeline & Regime Change Trade

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Constitutional Court approved President Yoon’s impeachment. The PM steps in as interim president, with a new election expected by May 28, 2025, before June 3.
  • The Democratic Party is the frontrunner, and if they win, expect a “regime change trade” with policy shifts toward green energy, welfare, public stimulus, and SME-focused initiatives.
  • Big-Cap builders, nuclear stocks, and major financials may struggle if the new regime focuses on public housing, anti-nuclear policies, and pro-SME, labor-friendly initiatives.

Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different and What It Signals

By John Ley

  • The SP500 and DXY both dropped yesterday—historically an unusual development.
  • We examine the SP500-DXY relationship alongside long-term shifts in capital flow and what this could mean for global markets vs SP500.
  • A distinct performance trend that began in 2009 may now be in the process of reversing.

Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

By Nico Rosti

  • Analysis of the NIFTY, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI 200, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout?
  • As explained in this insight, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can’t predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes.
  • What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal.

SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987

By John Ley

  • Drops greater than 5% on a Friday are rare, we examine historical returns after such events.
  • We revisit 1987 price action and reconstructed VIX levels to add historical context.
  • With circuit breakers now in place and political volatility elevated, we assess what today’s sell-off might mean for the next trading day.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): A Closer Look At Its Energy Sector Expansion & Innovation!

By Baptista Research

  • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) delivered a record-breaking performance in 2024, marked by robust financial results and strategic progress across its diverse business segments.
  • For the full year, the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.07, representing an 8% increase year-over-year, with net revenues reaching an unprecedented $9.3 billion.
  • This growth was partly fuelled by the strategic acquisition of Black Knight, which contributed to a 6% pro forma revenue increase versus the prior year.

Equitable Holdings Is Looking To Reshape Wealth & Retirement—But Can It Truly Become A Major Financial Powerhouse?

By Baptista Research

  • Equitable Holdings reported strong financial results for the year 2024, driven by the integrated business model across its Retirement, Asset Management, and Wealth Management segments.
  • Full-year non-GAAP operating earnings reached $2 billion, or $5.93 per share, reflecting a 29% increase from the previous year on a per-share basis.
  • Adjusted non-GAAP operating EPS was $6.18, which exceeded annual growth expectations of 12% to 15%, showing a 20% growth.

DLocal Unlocks New Growth Avenues Through Emerging Market Penetration & Innovation in Payment Orchestration!

By Baptista Research

  • dLocal, an emerging markets-focused payments company, recently reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating strong performance and strategic positioning in the digital payments industry.
  • The company achieved a record Total Payment Volume (TPV) of $26 billion for the year, reflecting a 45% increase compared to the previous year, with significant contributions from key markets such as Argentina, Egypt, and other regions in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
  • This growth highlights dLocal’s successful expansion into frontier markets and its ability to adapt to the evolving needs of global merchants.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Apr-2025): JD Property buying Brisbane estate for $153M.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • JD Property is acquiring Brisbane estate from ESR JV for $153M, expanding their real estate portfolio in Australia.
  • M&G and Nuveen have appointed new global real estate heads, signaling strategic leadership changes within their respective companies.
  • GLP completes a $360M China data center fund, highlighting their continued investment in the growing data center market in China. Warburg Pincus acquires Tokyo office building through Life Sciences JV with Eastgate, further expanding their real estate holdings in Asia.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Tata Motors Ltd, Steven Madden, Reynolds Consumer Products I, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Century Communities, Dorman Products, Guess? Inc, Lgi Homes Inc, Albertsons Cos , Pepsico Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Can Tata Motors Withstand the 25% U.S. Auto Tariffs Or It Will Collapse Further?
  • Steven Madden Just Acquired Kurt Geiger—Is This The Start Of A Fashion Empire?
  • Reynolds Consumer Products Reveals A New Strategy To Capture Retail Shelves Nationwide!
  • It’s Not a Lack of Analyst Coverage that Is Causing the Lack of Trading…..
  • Century Communities: The 5 Critical Challenges Lying Ahead in 2025!
  • Dorman Products: Strengthening the Supply Chain and Market Channels To Up Their Game!
  • GES: 4Q Review: Being Offensive & Defensive to Drive Returns; Reiterate Buy
  • LGI Homes Shatters Records With Explosive Community Expansion Across the U.S.!
  • Albertsons Companies: How Are They Managing Growth in Pharmacy and E-commerce Despite Solid Competition?
  • PepsiCo’s Great Beverage Meltdown: Is It Too Late for Its Soda Empire?


Can Tata Motors Withstand the 25% U.S. Auto Tariffs Or It Will Collapse Further?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The US imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports, affecting Tata Motors’ JLR unit, where the US accounts for 22% of sales.
  • This could shave off 200–300 bps from JLR’s EBITDA margin or weaken US volumes if costs are passed on to consumers.  
  • Tata Motors’ FY25 EBIT margin guidance of ≥8.5% looks ambitious; a realistic range may shift to 6.5–7.5% without swift demand or cost-side offsets.

Steven Madden Just Acquired Kurt Geiger—Is This The Start Of A Fashion Empire?

By Baptista Research

  • Steven Madden, Ltd. reported solid financial results for the full year 2024, with revenue increasing 15.2% year over-year to $2.3 billion and diluted earnings per share rising 9% to $2.67.
  • The company emphasized four key business drivers: international expansion, category diversification beyond footwear, growth in direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, and reinforcement of its U.S. wholesale footwear business.
  • International revenue rose 12%, with notable growth in the EMEA region (18%), including Europe, the Middle East, and South Africa.

Reynolds Consumer Products Reveals A New Strategy To Capture Retail Shelves Nationwide!

By Baptista Research

  • Reynolds Consumer Products, Inc. reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.
  • The company experienced a modest volumetric growth of 1% in the fourth quarter across its business units, which include Reynolds Cooking & Baking, Hefty Waste & Storage, Presto, and Hefty Tableware.
  • Despite navigating a challenging market environment, the company achieved its strongest profitability since the COVID 19 surge in 2020, highlighted by expanded margins and earnings surpassing initial projections.

It’s Not a Lack of Analyst Coverage that Is Causing the Lack of Trading…..

By Aki Matsumoto

  • 70% of Tokyo market is traded by overseas investors, so even companies with smaller market capitalization need to catch the attention of overseas investors by increasing their return on capital.
  • It is possible that the difference in stock valuations over the past few years has been due to a greater difference in return on capital between large-cap and small-cap stocks.
  • Skillful IR alone is not enough to raise stock price valuations. The IR department must have management who can execute management strategies and personnel who can formulate persuasive plans.

Century Communities: The 5 Critical Challenges Lying Ahead in 2025!

By Baptista Research

  • Century Communities reported a record-breaking performance for both the fourth quarter and full year 2024, highlighted by increased deliveries and community expansion.
  • The company delivered 11,007 homes in 2024, a 15% increase year-over-year, and expanded its community count by 28% to 322.
  • This growth was robust despite fluctuating mortgage rates, which were offset by strategic incentives to drive sales.

Dorman Products: Strengthening the Supply Chain and Market Channels To Up Their Game!

By Baptista Research

  • Dorman Products, Inc. reported its fourth quarter and 2024 fiscal year results, showing robust growth and strategic alignment.
  • The company surpassed the $2 billion annual sales mark for the first time, with net sales for the year growing by 4.1% year-over-year.
  • The growth was largely driven by strong demand and new product introductions in the Light Duty segment, despite market pressures affecting other segments.

GES: 4Q Review: Being Offensive & Defensive to Drive Returns; Reiterate Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $23 price target, lowering our FY26 EPS projections and rolling out a somewhat belated return to EPS growth in FY27 after the company announced solid 4QFY25 (January) results, with top and bottom line upside driven by rag and bone and European results.
  • With management focused on returning domestic stores to positive comps (via closures and upgrades) and continuing to fund growth opportunities for rag and bone, Guess Jeans and international, we expect FY26 to set the stage for FY27 (and beyond) top and bottom line growth.
  • Further, with Guess?’ highly material international operations and licensed businesses, we believe tariffs are not as material an issue as investors perceive.

LGI Homes Shatters Records With Explosive Community Expansion Across the U.S.!

By Baptista Research

  • LGI Homes, a leader in the homebuilding sector focusing on entry-level housing, presented mixed results for the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The year was marked by heightened economic challenges, arising primarily from an unexpected rise in mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve’s policy adjustments, which exacerbated affordability issues and increased input costs due to inflation.
  • On the positive side, LGI Homes met several strategic goals for 2024.

Albertsons Companies: How Are They Managing Growth in Pharmacy and E-commerce Despite Solid Competition?

By Baptista Research

  • Albertsons Companies’ third quarter 2024 results showcase a strategically mixed performance with several growth initiatives balanced by ongoing challenges.
  • Despite the termination of the merger, the company continues to execute its Customers for Life strategy, focusing on digital transformation, customer loyalty, and enhancing the overall value proposition.
  • Financially, Albertsons reported a 2% increase in identical sales, driven notably by a 13% rise in pharmacy sales and 23% growth in digital sales.

PepsiCo’s Great Beverage Meltdown: Is It Too Late for Its Soda Empire?

By Baptista Research

  • PepsiCo, once a formidable rival to Coca-Cola in the global soda market, is now facing one of its most challenging periods in decades.
  • Its flagship cola brand recently slipped to the No. 3 position in the U.S., behind Coca-Cola and Dr Pepper, highlighting the severity of the erosion in its core beverage business.
  • Ram Krishnan, the CEO of PepsiCo Beverages North America, is spearheading a turnaround mission with aggressive in-store visits, a refreshed marketing strategy, and operational restructuring.

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Cambodia Reaps Impressive Rubber Export Returns In 2025 Start


Cambodia Reaps Impressive Rubber Export Returns In 2025 Start

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Jan-Feb 2025 returns from rubber exports up 24% year-on-year  
  • Cambodia focusing on high-yielding CRRI 12 and CRRI 19 clones  
  • ANRPC economist says strengthening processing sector key

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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Yoon’s Impeachment Confirmed: Key Timeline & Regime Change Trade


Yoon’s Impeachment Confirmed: Key Timeline & Regime Change Trade

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Constitutional Court approved President Yoon’s impeachment. The PM steps in as interim president, with a new election expected by May 28, 2025, before June 3.
  • The Democratic Party is the frontrunner, and if they win, expect a “regime change trade” with policy shifts toward green energy, welfare, public stimulus, and SME-focused initiatives.
  • Big-Cap builders, nuclear stocks, and major financials may struggle if the new regime focuses on public housing, anti-nuclear policies, and pro-SME, labor-friendly initiatives.

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Daily Brief United States: S&P 500 INDEX, Shell , Crude Oil, Reynolds Consumer Products I, Steven Madden, Century Communities, Bright Horizons Family Solutions, BigCommerce Holdings, CytoSorbents and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different and What It Signals
  • Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns
  • [ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather
  • SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987
  • Reynolds Consumer Products Reveals A New Strategy To Capture Retail Shelves Nationwide!
  • Steven Madden Just Acquired Kurt Geiger—Is This The Start Of A Fashion Empire?
  • Century Communities: The 5 Critical Challenges Lying Ahead in 2025!
  • Bright Horizons’ Backup Care Boom: $600 Million Powerhouse Reshaping the Future of Childcare!
  • BigCommerce’s Targeted B2B Expansion Plan & 5 Factors That Are Changing The Game!
  • CTSO: CytoSorbents reports 4th quarter and 2024 financial results which showed impressive product revenue growth that was above our expectations.


Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different and What It Signals

By John Ley

  • The SP500 and DXY both dropped yesterday—historically an unusual development.
  • We examine the SP500-DXY relationship alongside long-term shifts in capital flow and what this could mean for global markets vs SP500.
  • A distinct performance trend that began in 2009 may now be in the process of reversing.

Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

By Suhas Reddy

  • Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.
  • As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets
  • Shell aims to save USD 5 – 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 – 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.

[ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.2m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.2k fall), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories rose by 29 Bcf for the week ending 28/Mar, exceeding analyst expectations of a 27 Bcf build. Inventories are 4.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Chevron sold its Texas gas assets for USD 525 million, while Exxon, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Aramco had their price targets cut.

SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987

By John Ley

  • Drops greater than 5% on a Friday are rare, we examine historical returns after such events.
  • We revisit 1987 price action and reconstructed VIX levels to add historical context.
  • With circuit breakers now in place and political volatility elevated, we assess what today’s sell-off might mean for the next trading day.

Reynolds Consumer Products Reveals A New Strategy To Capture Retail Shelves Nationwide!

By Baptista Research

  • Reynolds Consumer Products, Inc. reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.
  • The company experienced a modest volumetric growth of 1% in the fourth quarter across its business units, which include Reynolds Cooking & Baking, Hefty Waste & Storage, Presto, and Hefty Tableware.
  • Despite navigating a challenging market environment, the company achieved its strongest profitability since the COVID 19 surge in 2020, highlighted by expanded margins and earnings surpassing initial projections.

Steven Madden Just Acquired Kurt Geiger—Is This The Start Of A Fashion Empire?

By Baptista Research

  • Steven Madden, Ltd. reported solid financial results for the full year 2024, with revenue increasing 15.2% year over-year to $2.3 billion and diluted earnings per share rising 9% to $2.67.
  • The company emphasized four key business drivers: international expansion, category diversification beyond footwear, growth in direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, and reinforcement of its U.S. wholesale footwear business.
  • International revenue rose 12%, with notable growth in the EMEA region (18%), including Europe, the Middle East, and South Africa.

Century Communities: The 5 Critical Challenges Lying Ahead in 2025!

By Baptista Research

  • Century Communities reported a record-breaking performance for both the fourth quarter and full year 2024, highlighted by increased deliveries and community expansion.
  • The company delivered 11,007 homes in 2024, a 15% increase year-over-year, and expanded its community count by 28% to 322.
  • This growth was robust despite fluctuating mortgage rates, which were offset by strategic incentives to drive sales.

Bright Horizons’ Backup Care Boom: $600 Million Powerhouse Reshaping the Future of Childcare!

By Baptista Research

  • Bright Horizons Family Solutions concluded its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 with notable financial results, reflecting significant revenue and earnings growth.
  • For the year, the company reported an 11% increase in total revenue and a remarkable 22% growth in adjusted EPS, surpassing initial projections.
  • A key contributor to this performance was the back-up care segment, which exceeded expectations on revenue and operating income, thereby strengthening the company’s overall business mix.

BigCommerce’s Targeted B2B Expansion Plan & 5 Factors That Are Changing The Game!

By Baptista Research

  • BigCommerce’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 earnings announcement revealed a mixed financial performance as the company navigates its transformational strategy towards more efficient and profitable operations.
  • The company’s non-GAAP operating income showed a remarkable improvement, surpassing $19 million, which is nearly double the original forecast, while operating cash flow reached $26 million, marking a $50 million increase from 2023.
  • These outcomes underscore BigCommerce’s effective cost management, attributed to decreased ineffective sales and marketing expenditure and a 10% headcount reduction.

CTSO: CytoSorbents reports 4th quarter and 2024 financial results which showed impressive product revenue growth that was above our expectations.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • CytoSorbents is commercializing its E.U. approved CytoSorb blood purification technology to treat life-threatening conditions in the intensive care unit and cardiac surgery.
  • The company also seeks U.S. and Canadian approval of a second product, DrugSorb-ATR, to reduce perioperative bleeding risk in patients on blood thinners during cardiac surgery.
  • Based on the results of its pivotal U.S. and Canadian STAR-T trial, the company submitted for FDA De Novo approval on September 27, 2024, and Health Canada on November 1, 2024, with regulatory decisions expected in 2025.

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Daily Brief China: Regencell Bioscience Holdings, Xiaomi Corp, Ares Management and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Is This Chinese Biotech Going Out of Business?
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Apr-2025): JD Property buying Brisbane estate for $153M.


Is This Chinese Biotech Going Out of Business?

By J Capital Research

  • This Nasdaq-listed, Hong Kong-based company hopes to apply Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) to significant illnesses like ADHD, but that seems unlikely. The company is a family affair, with all research provided by the CEO’s father, so one wonders how objective scientific assessment can be.
  • The stock surged by more than 700% in a month without patent approval, a buyout offer, or other notable news. The CEO funded a share buyback, but rather than demonstrating faith in the company, the repurchase looked suspiciously like a way to inflate the short-term share price, possibly for an equity issue or insider self- enrichment since the CEO’s compensation is tied to market capitalization.
  • This is a highly speculative business run by a family team from Hong Kong, thus little trusted in the U.S. and very volatile.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In the US, the ISM services index declined to 50.8 (52.9 e / 53.5 p) in March 2025, the lowest level since June 2024, albeit remaining in expansion territory for the ninth consecutive month.
  • Meanwhile, the March 2025 final S&P services PMI climbed to 54.4 (54.2 e / 51.0 p), but was stable compared to the preliminary reading of 54.3.
  • The composite PMI rose to 53.5 (53.5 e / 51.6 p). Separately, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 122.7 bn (USD 123.5 bn e / USD 130.7 bn revised p) in February. 

Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Apr-2025): JD Property buying Brisbane estate for $153M.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • JD Property is acquiring Brisbane estate from ESR JV for $153M, expanding their real estate portfolio in Australia.
  • M&G and Nuveen have appointed new global real estate heads, signaling strategic leadership changes within their respective companies.
  • GLP completes a $360M China data center fund, highlighting their continued investment in the growing data center market in China. Warburg Pincus acquires Tokyo office building through Life Sciences JV with Eastgate, further expanding their real estate holdings in Asia.

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