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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 29
0

Daily Brief Australia: Ainsworth Game Technology and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
  • The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.   
  • Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Delta Electronics Thailand and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand’s rally looks sentiment-driven, not fundamental: 1Q25 results were decent but not a major beat.
  • Valuation gap widened to unjustifiable levels: Delta Thailand trades at 52x trailing PER vs. Delta Taiwan at 25x.
  • Delta Taiwan remains the structurally stronger,cheaper exposure to the group’s long-term growth themes.

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Inc, Hanwha Ocean , WYSIWYG Studios, LG CNS and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation
  • Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky
  • Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
  • KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing
  • Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market
  • LG CNS: Better Than Expected Results in 1Q 2025 Led by Cloud & AI Unit

Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local traders are betting SK Inc will preemptively announce a treasury share cancellation before the June election, positioning it as the center of the regime change momentum play.
  • From a trading perspective, SK Inc could rally as a “buyback stock” and offer NAV gap trading opportunities.
  • Another option could be an event-driven hedge strategy: go long on SK and short index futures post-election. If Lee Jae-myung wins, SK could outperform, but the broader market may drop.

Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • Korea Development Bank (KDB) plans to raise around US$740m via selling around 5%+ stake in Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS).
  • HO’s shares have nearly tripled since the start of the year, and the company reported its results today.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

By Brian Freitas

  • Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. 
  • Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
  • There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

By Sanghyun Park

  • KDB sells 4.3% of total shares, offloading about one fifth of its holdings. The price range was 81,265–81,710 won, at an 8.51–9.00% discount, totaling 1.056–1.062 trillion won.
  • With more float and passive buying (KOSPI 200) potential, plus shipbuilding momentum, the stock’s pullback likely won’t exceed today’s discount — it might be worth taking a swing.
  • There’s buzz KDB might sell its HMM stake through block trades, like Hanwha Ocean. However, with HMM’s cash reserves, a tender offer seems more likely to drive stock action instead.

Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the indirect beneficiaries of the global hit movie “King of Kings” in the Korean stock market. 
  • The King of Kings is a 3D animation movie produced by a Korean company called Mofac Studio (unlisted). This film made $45mn in N. American box office in 10 days.
  • Dexter Studios, Wysiwyg Studios, and GiantStep (listed competitors to Mofac Studios) are up on average 17% in the past one month. 

LG CNS: Better Than Expected Results in 1Q 2025 Led by Cloud & AI Unit

By Douglas Kim

  • LG CNS reported better than expected results in 1Q 2025 with sales of 1.2 trillion won (up 13.2% YoY) and operating profit of 78.9 billion won (up 144.3% YoY).
  • The company’s sales, operating profit, and net profit were 5.5%, 16.5%, and 36.4% better than the consensus estimates, respectively in 1Q 2025. 
  • The company’s Cloud & AI unit had sales of 717.3 billion won (up 30.1% YoY) in 1Q 2025.

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Amara Holdings, Sinarmas Land, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Suntec REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share
  • Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair
  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895
  • Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb
  • REIT Watch – S-REITs rebound from early April sell-off

Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP), a property/hotel play, has announced a best-and-final conditional S$0.895/share cash Offer, a 27% to undisturbed and a lifetime high, from the controlling Teo family.
  • If Amara sounds familiar, in November 2023, the family launched  a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share as discussed in Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer.
  • This new Offer has a 90% acceptance condition. Irrevocables tally 90.58%. Done and done. 

Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
  • Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.
  • The IFA agreed and said “Not Fair but Reasonable”, with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895

By Arun George

  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from a three-member consortium at S$0.895 per share, a 27.0% premium to the last close price. 
  • Irrevocables, including from the 2023 VGO offeror, represent 90.58% of the outstanding shares, ensuring that the 90% minimum acceptance condition will be satisfied and the offer will be declared unconditional. 
  • The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high, and is 49.2% above the 2023 VGO price. 

Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Rubber products exports to the US falls 4.99% MoM in Feb  
  •  Product exports to China surge by 143.22% MoM in Feb  
  •  Rubber exports value in Feb soar to US$225.71 million  

REIT Watch – S-REITs rebound from early April sell-off

By Geoff Howie

  • From April 14 to 24, top 10 iEdge S-REIT index performers received S$23.3 million in net institutional inflows.
  • Institutional investors net sold S$36.6 million in S-REITs from April 14 to 24, totaling S$465.1 million in outflows year-to-date.
  • Retail investors net sold S$64.4 million in S-REITs from April 14 to 24, with year-to-date net inflows of S$261.9 million.

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: PT Metrodata Electronics, AKR Corporindo, Bank Central Asia, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) – Cybersecurity and AI to Be Future Drivers
  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – A New Chapter Begins
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Thriving Through Transactions
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) – Cybersecurity and AI to Be Future Drivers

By Angus Mackintosh

  • PT Metrodata Electronics finished FY2024 on a high note, booking a record net profit, driven by growth in its ICT distribution business and increased profitability in Solutions & Consulting.
  • The distribution segment was driven by rapid growth from telco products, especially the Infinix brand, as well as networking and storage hardware for the corporate segment.
  • Solutions&Consulting saw strong performance from financial services, and with 52% of revenues coming from recurrent income from areas like cloud services and software. AI and Cybersecurity are becoming key drivers.

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – A New Chapter Begins

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) released a solid set of results driven by its trading & distribution segment, retail gas stations, and very strong utilities earnings from its JIIPE industrial estate. 
  • The company booked a record gross profit despite a lack of land sales in 1Q2025, but it remains positive on the outlook with 20 hectares to be booked in 2Q2025.
  • AKRA is also upbeat on prospects for trading & distribution and utility earnings this year as anchor tenants ramp up production at JIIPE. Valuations remain compelling. 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Thriving Through Transactions

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia booked a strong set of numbers in 1Q2025, driven by strong loan growth and healthy growth in CASA and despite an increase in provisions. 
  • The bank booked loan growth across its key segments, with corporate, SME, and consumer lending driving growth, with its transactional banking continuing to grow as it expands its customer base.
  • Bank Central Asia‘s digital offerings continue to be a core driver for both business and consumer banking, as well as for onboarding new customers. Valuations are attractive versus history. 

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Greenko Energy, Vedanta Resources, Reliance Industries
  • Last Friday, US Treasuries tightened by 5-8 bps across the curve. US equities continued to recover, albeit at a slow pace, with the S&P 500 up by 0.7% and Nasdaq rising 1.3%.
  • The US economy is projected to register a weak 0.4% annualised growth rate in Q1/25, according to the US government’s initial estimate, with a large trade deficit and consumer fatigue contributing to the slowdown, even before the tariff-related upheaval.

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief United States: International Business Machines, Lam Research, Lionsgate Studios, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Texas Instruments, Theratechnologies, Servicenow Inc, Netflix Inc, Base Oil, Newmont Mining and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!
  • Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?
  • Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill Revolutionizes Speed, Quality, & Sales With Next-Level Kitchen Innovations!
  • Texas Instruments: Expansion of Industrial And Automotive Markets & Key Forces Driving Growth!
  • Potential Takeovers, Legal Battles, and Strategic Reviews: Key Updates on THTX, SWTX, LQDA and More
  • ServiceNow Inc.: Government Transformation Suite Expansion & Key Growth Catalysts!
  • Netflix EXPANDS In The Gaming Arena: Is This High-Stakes Gamble Enough to Overcome Its Underperformance?
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April
  • Newmont’s $1.3 Billion Bet: Can Strategic Capital Allocation Spark a New Era of Growth?

Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!

By Baptista Research

  • International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) delivered solid performance in its first-quarter 2025 results, exhibiting a combination of strengths and challenges as it continues to pursue its strategic focus on hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence (AI).
  • IBM reported a total revenue of $14.5 billion for the quarter, marking a 2% increase at constant currency from the previous year.
  • This growth was primarily driven by robust performance in the Software segment which rose by 9% thanks to advancements across Red Hat, Automation, Data, and Transaction Processing.

Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?

By Baptista Research

  • Lam Research reported a strong performance in the March 2025 quarter, exceeding the midpoint of guidance across key financial metrics such as revenue, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS.
  • The company achieved record foundry revenues, attributing much of this success to robust execution and strategic investments in manufacturing and operations, leading to improved gross margins post-Novellus merger.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Lionsgate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) recently approved the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). The spin-off should happen within a few weeks.

  • Lionsgate Studio has carved out a niche as a lean, franchise-focused independent studio that thrives in the mid-budget, IP-driven segment of the entertainment industry.

  • It punches above its weight by targeting profitable genre films, franchise extensions, and strategic licensing — while avoiding the financial risk of mega-budget blockbusters.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Revolutionizes Speed, Quality, & Sales With Next-Level Kitchen Innovations!

By Baptista Research

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill’s first quarter fiscal 2025 results illustrate a complex interplay of growth initiatives and external headwinds.
  • The company reported a 6% increase in total sales, reaching $2.9 billion; however, there was a slight decline in comparable sales by 0.4%.
  • Digital sales accounted for 35.4% of total sales, reflecting the ongoing importance of digital channels.

Texas Instruments: Expansion of Industrial And Automotive Markets & Key Forces Driving Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Texas Instruments (TI) reported its first-quarter 2025 results, showcasing a moderate revenue growth trajectory, yet in an environment fraught with external challenges.
  • Revenue for the quarter was $4.1 billion, marking a 2% sequential increase and an 11% increase year-over-year.
  • This growth was primarily driven by a 13% year-overyear increase in Analog revenue, while Embedded Processing remained relatively unchanged.

Potential Takeovers, Legal Battles, and Strategic Reviews: Key Updates on THTX, SWTX, LQDA and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Theratechnologies (THTX) received a non-binding takeover offer from Future Pak, with a potential 62% upside including CVR.
  • Merck KGaA is nearing a $47/share acquisition of SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX), with no competing bidders reported.
  • Liquidia (LQDA) and UTHR are engaged in legal battles over patent infringement and Yutrepia’s approval, affecting market valuations.

ServiceNow Inc.: Government Transformation Suite Expansion & Key Growth Catalysts!

By Baptista Research

  • ServiceNow reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing substantial growth in key performance indicators while also navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment.
  • The company’s focus on expanding its artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities and deepening customer relationships were major highlights.
  • Subscription revenue increased by 20% year-over-year in constant currency, slightly surpassing guidance.

Netflix EXPANDS In The Gaming Arena: Is This High-Stakes Gamble Enough to Overcome Its Underperformance?

By Baptista Research

  • Netflix’s first-quarter 2025 earnings reaffirmed its strong positioning in the media and entertainment landscape, bolstered by strategic shifts over the past few years.
  • The company reported adjusted earnings of $6.61 per share on revenue of $10.54 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $5.67 per share on $10.5 billion revenue.
  • Netflix did not update its subscriber count this quarter after posting a record net gain of 18.9 million paid subscriptions last quarter, instead highlighting higher than-expected operating income and ad revenue as key performance drivers.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could wane as expectations of improving supply and more muted end-user consumption incentivize blenders to keep low stocks.
  • High base oils margins could add to buyers’ preference to hold back amid concern about disconnect between high margins and prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
  • More muted regional demand would speed up recovery in supply as more plant maintenance draws to a close in coming weeks.

Newmont’s $1.3 Billion Bet: Can Strategic Capital Allocation Spark a New Era of Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Newmont Corporation’s recent quarterly results reveal a solid start to 2025, driven by strong operational performance and favorable market conditions, particularly the high gold prices.
  • The company produced 1.5 million ounces of gold and 35,000 tonnes of copper in the first quarter, aligning with annual guidance.
  • These figures have supported record first-quarter cash flows, with operating cash flows at $2 billion and free cash flow at $1.2 billion.

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief India: Hyundai Motor India , Ramkrishna Forgings , Ather Energy, Reliance Industries, Maruti Suzuki India, Mahindra & Mahindra, CARE Ratings, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
  • Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot
  • Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
  • Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits
  • Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy
  • Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results
  • Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV
  • The Beat Ideas: CARE Ratings- India’s Only Homegrown CRA Reclaims Its Edge
  • Ather Energy IPO: A High-Risk Ride in a Crowded E2W Market
  • NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Option Markets Remain in High Vol-Regime

IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India is set to witness INR 4.02 trillion worth of Pre-IPO shares becoming tradeable by June 2025, lead to huge selling pressure among various IPO stocks.
  • We identified 6 Companies where lock-in is about to expire and analyzed their current status in terms of their business and industry environment.
  • Some fundamentally good companies also provide opportunities at a good price due to a fall because of selling pressure in these companies after lock-in expiry.

Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot

By Nitin Mangal

  • On April 26, 2025, Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (RKFL) disclosed that during the annual physical verification of inventory for the financial year ending March 31, 2025, there were discrepancies observed.
  • The company has appointed independent external agencies to dig-out the findings, but the fact that management expects a 4-5% erosion of net-worth has caught the attention of many.
  • While this exposes the accounting and governance, the bigger picture is that it also exposes a big audit blind spot relating to inventory discrepancy threshold of 10%.

Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind

By Nitin Mangal

  • Ather Energy (1207922D IN) kickstarts its INR 29.8 bn worth IPO this week, comprising of fresh issue worth INR 26.3 bn and 11.1 mn OFS valued at INR 3.5 bn. 
  • Ather, a pioneer, was the first entity to launch a smart scooter back in 2018. The company currently is 4th largest EV player with a market share of 10.7%. 
  • Although it shows strong R&D profile and a positive warranty trend, Ather continues its heavy cash burn and has exorbitant wages, loss of market share, increased discounting, etc.

Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Ather Energy (1207922D IN) IPO opened today (April 28, 2025) with a price band of Rs 304-321 per share, and will remain open until April 30, 2025. 
  • This insight focuses on our takeaways from visiting various Ather Showroom and Service Centers across the Country. 
  • The product quality, service feedback and product positioning is relatively better than competition. The product is good, business probably not. 

Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy

By Rahul Jain

  • Reliance plans to invest Rs40,000–45,000 crore (30% of total capex) into its New Energy business over FY25–FY28.
  • Solar PV manufacturing (10 GW), Green Hydrogen (electrolyzers + hydrogen production), Energy Storage (30 GWh batteries), Biogas (CBG plants), and Carbon Capture initiatives.
  • New Energy could contribute 8–10% of Reliance’s total EBITDA over the next 10 years as projects mature and commercial operations ramp up.

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)’s  Q4 FY25 results missed estimates, with revenue up 6.4% YoY but PAT down 4.3% YoY, impacted by higher costs from new launches and EV investments.
  • Management guides for 1–2% industry growth in FY26 but expects to outperform, led by new SUV launches and strong export growth (+20% targeted).
  • Valuation at ~25x trailing EPS appears fair relative to historical average; near-term upside looks capped given muted demand and margin pressures.

Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) is acquiring a 58.96% stake in SML Isuzu through SPAs with Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) and Isuzu Motors (7202 JP), along with open offer.
  • The acquisition aims to significantly strengthen M&M’s position in the >3.5T commercial vehicle segment, doubling its market share initially and targeting further growth.  
  • This strategic move signals M&M’s clear intent to become a full-range player in commercial vehicles, leveraging synergies in product, network, and manufacturing. 

The Beat Ideas: CARE Ratings- India’s Only Homegrown CRA Reclaims Its Edge

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • CARE Ratings has emerged stronger post-IL&FS through board reconstitution, governance reforms, and renewed focus on ESG-linked services.
  • With India’s credit market entering a capex-led upcycle and ESG regulations tightening, CRAs like CARE are structurally well-placed to benefit.
  • Despite lagging CRISIL and ICRA in tech-enabled analytics, CARE’s high share of rating revenue (~90%) and clean balance sheet provide room for re-rating, supported by industry tailwinds.

Ather Energy IPO: A High-Risk Ride in a Crowded E2W Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Ather Energy is launching an IPO to raise INR 2,626 crore for capacity expansion, R&D, and marketing, and OFS of INR 350 Crore.
  • Despite strong technological positioning, Ather faces rising competitive pressure, high cash burn, low capacity utilization, and growing risks from policy and supplier dependencies.
  • While Ather’s innovation strength is intact, its financial instability and fierce competition make the IPO a high-risk, cautious-watch opportunity rather than a straightforward growth bet.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Option Markets Remain in High Vol-Regime

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs rise as markets return from holiday-truncated week, moving from 14.2% to 15.8%. Monthly contracts benefit most as they capture multiple tier-1 event risks.
  • “High & Up” vol-state persists. Though there is a high probability of switching to “High & Down” with slight IV stabilization.
  • TACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Avoid negative Gamma/ Smile/ Vega exposure. Wait for vol-regime shift before initiating new risk-premia harvesting structures

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief China: Geely Auto, Tencent, Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management, Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial, ZTO Express Cayman and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25
  • Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Strategic Opportunities in Options Trading
  • Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
  • Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25

By Ming Lu

  • Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.
  • The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.
  • We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.

Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Strategic Opportunities in Options Trading

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for Tencent (700 HK) has declined from recent peaks, aligning near its 3-year median, indicating a potential stabilization in market expectations.
  • Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The term structure is largely flat with a slight uplift due to the upcoming earnings on 14 May 2025. A pronounced volatility smile favors spreads.
  • Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in near-term (April, May) and quarterly expiries, with call open interest slightly outweighing puts (48-60%).

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (GXNCM) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CMBI and CLSA.
  • It’s a leading Chinese noodle restaurants operator in China, operating under the Xiao Noodles brand, offering value-for-money cuisines.
  • Under its dual model of corporate-owned and franchising, it focuses on corporate-owned restaurants in first-tier & new first-tier cities in China.

Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 70% of all strategies. With a bias towards bullish views, Bull Call Spreads outnumber Bear Put Spreads by 2:1.
  • Lottery Trades: following observations of such strategies in other stocks, a lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. Trade size tends to be sizable.

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.
  • Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.
  • Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to Baicha Baidao.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24
  • Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies
  • But express “story” generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief Japan: Toyota Industries, Toyota Motor, Astellas Pharma, Sodick Co Ltd, Chori Co Ltd, Financial Products Group Co, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns
  • Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors
  • Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strong FY25 Result; Cost Optimization to Boost FY26 Profit on Flat Sales
  • Sodick (6143) – From Turnaround to Transformation Towards Growth
  • Chori Co Ltd (8014 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
  • Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
  • Hurdles to Shareholder Proposal Passage Are Still High, but the Announcement Effect Is Significant

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns

By Arun George

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP) shares were set to hit the daily upper limit of JPY16,225 due to press reports of a privatisation bid valuing it at JPY6 trillion. 
  • Toyota Industries confirmed receiving a going-private proposal from a special purpose company, while Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said it is considering all possibilities, including a partial investment. 
  • There are still several unknowns, including the price, the identity of the offeror, potential irrevocable commitments, the financing structure, and the timeline. 

Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors

By Nico Rosti

  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
  • Bloomberg reported Friday that Toyota Motor (7203 JP)  Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring Toyota Industries (6201 JP)  in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.
  • The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strong FY25 Result; Cost Optimization to Boost FY26 Profit on Flat Sales

By Tina Banerjee

  • Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) has announced strong FY25 performance, with all key parameters surpassing guidance, while FY26 guidance is a mix of positives and negatives.
  • Astellas has guided for FY26 revenue of ¥1,930B, up 1% YoY. While strategic brands are expected to grow by double and triple-digit, Xtandi is expected to report 5% revenue decline.
  • FY26 core operating profit is guided at ¥410B, up 5% YoY, driven by cost optimization effort. Core net profit for FY26 is expected to increase 3% YoY to ¥304B.

Sodick (6143) – From Turnaround to Transformation Towards Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • It has been an active 12 months for Sodick as it delivered a strong turnaround in FY12/24 driven by structural reform, appointed new President and CEO Yuji Akutsu, and affirmed growth prospects on both the Food Machinery segment and new products such as laser processing machines, metal 3D printers, and ultra-high-precision machining centers.
  • Ongoing structural reforms focus on reducing reliance on China, enhancing profitability through business and product selection based on market dynamics, and rebuilding global production and sales systems to adapt to yen depreciation and evolving customer demand.
  • Overseas expansion and providing “turnkey” solutions remain high priorities to build sustainable growth.

Chori Co Ltd (8014 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In FY03/25, sales rose 1.3% YoY to JPY311.5bn, with net income reaching a record JPY11.7bn.
  • Operating profit declined 3.6% YoY due to increased SG&A expenses, while pre-tax profit rose 11.0% YoY.
  • For FY03/26, sales are projected to increase by JPY18.5bn, with a slight decrease in pre-tax profit expected.

Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In 1H FY09/25, revenues increased by 25.2% YoY, while operating profit decreased by 3.6% YoY.
  • The Leasing Fund Business saw a 7.1% YoY revenue decline, with a segment profit margin decrease of 5.3pp YoY.
  • The International Real Estate Fund Business achieved a 134.6% YoY revenue increase, with a gross profit margin rise of 6.5pp YoY.

Hurdles to Shareholder Proposal Passage Are Still High, but the Announcement Effect Is Significant

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There’re signs, with domestic institutional investors gradually becoming more willing to consider shareholder proposals. However, the hurdle to passage is still high, as shareholder proposals weren’t approved at March AGMs.
  • Regarding proposals that are easy for domestic institutional investors to mechanically approve/disapprove, such as the number of independent directors and female directors, companies are expected to raise the level formally.
  • Since the announcement effect of shareholder proposals is significant, it is expected that companies that did not pass shareholder proposals this time will launch initiatives to strengthen shareholder returns.

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Apr 29
0

Daily Brief Financials: Sinarmas Land, Bank Central Asia, CARE Ratings, Aspen Insurance Holdings, NIFTY Index, Financial Products Group Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Thriving Through Transactions
  • The Beat Ideas: CARE Ratings- India’s Only Homegrown CRA Reclaims Its Edge
  • Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Another Insurance IPO Possibility on the Horizon
  • NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Option Markets Remain in High Vol-Regime
  • Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update

Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
  • Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.
  • The IFA agreed and said “Not Fair but Reasonable”, with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Thriving Through Transactions

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia booked a strong set of numbers in 1Q2025, driven by strong loan growth and healthy growth in CASA and despite an increase in provisions. 
  • The bank booked loan growth across its key segments, with corporate, SME, and consumer lending driving growth, with its transactional banking continuing to grow as it expands its customer base.
  • Bank Central Asia‘s digital offerings continue to be a core driver for both business and consumer banking, as well as for onboarding new customers. Valuations are attractive versus history. 

The Beat Ideas: CARE Ratings- India’s Only Homegrown CRA Reclaims Its Edge

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • CARE Ratings has emerged stronger post-IL&FS through board reconstitution, governance reforms, and renewed focus on ESG-linked services.
  • With India’s credit market entering a capex-led upcycle and ESG regulations tightening, CRAs like CARE are structurally well-placed to benefit.
  • Despite lagging CRISIL and ICRA in tech-enabled analytics, CARE’s high share of rating revenue (~90%) and clean balance sheet provide room for re-rating, supported by industry tailwinds.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Another Insurance IPO Possibility on the Horizon

By IPO Boutique

  • Aspen Insurance Holdings filed for its IPO in December 2023 and saw its filing refreshed in December 2024 and once again on March 20th, 2025.
  • This company was acquired by private-equity titan Apollo Global in a transaction announced in August 2018 and closing in February 2019. 
  • For the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, they wrote $4,609 million in gross written premiums marking a 16.2% increase from the same period in 2023. 

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Option Markets Remain in High Vol-Regime

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs rise as markets return from holiday-truncated week, moving from 14.2% to 15.8%. Monthly contracts benefit most as they capture multiple tier-1 event risks.
  • “High & Up” vol-state persists. Though there is a high probability of switching to “High & Down” with slight IV stabilization.
  • TACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Avoid negative Gamma/ Smile/ Vega exposure. Wait for vol-regime shift before initiating new risk-premia harvesting structures

Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In 1H FY09/25, revenues increased by 25.2% YoY, while operating profit decreased by 3.6% YoY.
  • The Leasing Fund Business saw a 7.1% YoY revenue decline, with a segment profit margin decrease of 5.3pp YoY.
  • The International Real Estate Fund Business achieved a 134.6% YoY revenue increase, with a gross profit margin rise of 6.5pp YoY.

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