Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Equity-Funded Bitcoin accumulation stalls, as Metaplanet’s share price and mNAV collapse, closing the window for reflexive BTC yield growth
• BIG trading desk delivers outsized returns, but sustainability remains uncertain amid falling Bitcoin volatility and rising funding obligations.
• Phase II pivots toward platform ambitions, signalling a shift from accumulation to architecture, and potentially, from treasury to Bitcoin bank.

• JIP and MitHeavy have announced a takeunder to buy out MitHeavy sub Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) at a weighted average price 42% lower than Target Advisor DCF range midpoint.
• No/Minimal transparency. A sales process interrupted by Trump tariffs, leaving one low-ball bidder. And the sellers goes ahead with it BUT gets to reinvest on the back end. You don’t.
• The Board “supports” the Tender Offer, but leaves it to the opinion of the shareholders as to whether they tender. MitHeavy has 64.4% already so that basically gets done. But…

• JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
• The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
• Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2026 based on trading data as of end-September 2025.

• Macbee Planet is a high-growth marketing technology company specializing in data-driven LTV (Lifetime Value) marketing, a niche that offers significant upside within Japan’s large internet advertising market.
• The company has demonstrated an exceptional track record of revenue and net income growth, driven by its performance-based consulting and proprietary technology platforms. However, this growth has been accompanied by significant cash flow volatility and recent margin compression.
• Key risks include a high dependency on a few key industries, particularly finance and wellness, increasing competition, and the challenge of maintaining profitability while scaling. The recent negative operating cash flow is a primary concern for investors.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• ODK Solutions Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the “Company”) reported net sales of JPY 1,008 mn (-4.6% YoY) in Q1 FY2026/3.
• Despite the sales contribution from NINJAPAN, which became a consolidated subsidiary in the previous fiscal year, the decline in development projects in medical- related services and securities services weighed on earnings.
• Promotional expenses for new services also added to the burden, resulting in an operating loss of JPY 210 mn, an ordinary loss of JPY 186 mn, and a quarterly net loss of JPY 146 mn, with all losses widening year-on-year. 

Key points (machine generated)

• F-Code, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under code 9211, has completed 19 M&A transactions and expects significant sales growth of 15 times in four years.
• The company aims for a 14-fold increase in operating profit and EBITDA, focusing on digital transformation in marketing using AI and system development.
• Operating as a holding company with 15 specialized firms, F-Code maintains a federal system that respects subsidiary independence while offering integrated services.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• Agent IG Holdings reported an operating loss for the interim period ending December 2025 but expects to meet full-year objectives.
• The company offers a wide range of property and life insurance services and is pursuing mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position.
• Since January 2016, Agent IG Holdings has acquired 636 insurance agencies, including the notable acquisition of Financial Japan Co., Ltd. in April 2024.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• Kichiri Holdings, listed as 3082 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, anticipates double-digit revenue and profit growth by June 2026.
• The company operates various dining formats, including urban and suburban restaurants, and is involved in recruitment and regional revitalization.
• As of June 2025, Kichiri Holdings had 139 stores and reported a 9.5% revenue increase to 15,056 million yen, but a 25.9% decline in operating profit to 581 million yen.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• Agent IG Holdings is experiencing an interim operating loss but expects to meet full-year financial goals through business expansion.
• The company provides a wide range of property and life insurance services, utilizing a unique platform to support M&A and business succession.
• Since 2016, Agent IG Holdings has acquired 636 insurance agencies, including Financial Japan Co., Ltd. in April 2024.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• Axis is a Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed IT company established in 1991, specializing in digital transformation services.
• The company has achieved 34 consecutive profitable periods, demonstrating effective project management and expertise in the financial sector.
• Axis reported a 7% increase in sales for the interim results of the fiscal year ending December 2025, aiming to become a leading IT consulting firm.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
• The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
• While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal. 

• Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
• 93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
• It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.

• Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 16 October.
• At the top end of the IPO range at JPY 3000/share, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) will be valued at JPY 298bn (US$2bn).
• The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 27 November while inclusion in global indices should take place in February and June.

• Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.
• Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.
• Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.

• Dominant Market Position with Strong Growth Engine: KeePer Technical Laboratory is a market leader in Japan’s car coating industry, demonstrating a robust growth trajectory. This is driven by the continuous expansion of its dual-format network: company-owned ‘KeePer LABO’ stores and franchised ‘KeePer PROSHOP’ locations. The company has a proven track record of double-digit revenue and profit growth, supported by strong same-store sales and new openings.
• Vertically Integrated Business Model Creates Synergies: The company’s integrated model, which spans from the development and manufacturing of proprietary coating chemicals to the direct provision of services, creates significant competitive advantages. This ensures high-quality, standardized service across its network, reinforces its brand, and allows the KeePer LABO (B2C) stores to provide direct market feedback for the Products (B2B) segment.
• Attractive Financial Profile with Shareholder Returns: KeePer exhibits a strong financial profile characterized by high margins, robust cash flow generation, and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. The company has a consistent history of impressive earnings growth, which has translated into a rapidly growing dividend, signaling a commitment to shareholder returns.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Even in parent-subsidiary listings, which form the core of business portfolio restructuring, some large companies have begun taking action, raising expectations for further improvements in capital profitability.
• Companies that have businesses with low capital profitability often lack clear criteria for exiting those businesses, or even if they have established exit criteria, they aren’t actually applied in practice.
• Some companies still believe they cannot withdraw because establishing clear criteria would create inconsistencies with their current low-return capital business, forcing someone to clarify where responsibility lies.

Key points (machine generated)

• And Do Holdings announced a five-year management plan to restructure its business and improve profitability.
• For the fiscal year ending June 2025, the company reported a 4.2% decline in revenues to 64.735 billion yen and a 27% drop in operating profit to 2.62 billion yen.
• The declines were mainly due to lower-than-expected transfers to the HLB fund, affected by reduced purchase contracts in the house leaseback business.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Shares up 18% since Q2; short-term correction likely as valuation nears fair value (~6x EV/Revenue); ValueAct holds 5.6% stake.
• Q3 sales forecast +24% YoY to ¥12.1bn; adjusted EBITDA margin rising to 7% amid strong ARR growth from mid-sized corporates.
• Money Forward sharpened focus on core business, divesting non-core assets and forming a ¥3bn JV with SMFG to expand digital banking services.

Key points (machine generated)

• F-Code, listed as 9211 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, has completed 19 M&A transactions since going public.
• The company projects a 15-fold sales growth and a 14-fold increase in operating profit and EBITDA over the next four years.
• F-Code operates as a holding entity for 15 companies, focusing on AI and digitalization in marketing while maintaining a federal system for subsidiary independence.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• FunPep, established in 2013, develops pharmaceuticals based on functional peptides as alternatives to antibody drugs.
• The company is conducting a Phase 1 clinical trial for its hay fever vaccine ‘FPP004X’ with 93 subjects, starting in March 2025.
• The trial evaluates safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity, with results expected in the second half of 2026.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.