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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Qbe Insurance, Stellantis NV, Brunner Investment Trust PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • QBE Insurance – COR 109% in N America Commercial, Where Growth Is High | Debt Surges USD700m in 1H23
  • Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value
  • The Brunner Investment Trust – Highest total return versus peers over three years


QBE Insurance – COR 109% in N America Commercial, Where Growth Is High | Debt Surges USD700m in 1H23

By Daniel Tabbush

  • QBE Insurance is seeing a deteriorating combined operating ratio, in part due to CAT events and it unclear to us how underwriting, exposures will immediately improve
  • Net profit is nearly static, USD750m in FY21, USD770m in FY22. USD400m profit in 1H23 may note repeat in 2H23, due in part to USD700m more debt in interim.
  • North America net earned premiums are seeing far more distribution toward Commercial, where the COR is especially poor at 109% in 1H23

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

By Joe Jasper

  • Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
  • We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.

The Brunner Investment Trust – Highest total return versus peers over three years

By Edison Investment Research

The Brunner Investment Trust’s (BUT’s) two co-managers, Christian Schneider (deputy CIO global growth) and Julian Bishop (global equity specialist) are supported by deputy managers Marcus Morris-Eyton (European equity specialist) and Simon Gergel (CIO UK equities). BUT can be considered as a global equity fund for all seasons given its steady trend of outperformance in recent years despite volatile share prices and changes in stock market leadership. The trust stacks up well in both absolute and relative terms with double-digit annual NAV total returns over the last decade and above-average returns within the AIC Global sector over the last one, three and five years. BUT’s dual mandate of income and capital growth means it should appeal to a broad range of investors.


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Daily Brief South Korea: SK Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Inc: Updated NAV Valuation Analysis


SK Inc: Updated NAV Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 17.5 trillion won (NAV per share of 239,095 won), representing a 60% upside from current levels.
  • SK Inc has underperformed most other SK Group related companies YTD but this underperformance may be excessive and SK Inc could outperform as more value investors seek deeply discounted companies.
  • SK Inc’s dividend yield is 3.3%, which is higher than the dividend yields of most other major SK Group companies excluding SK Telecom which has a dividend yield of 6.5%.

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Daily Brief Australia: Costa Group Holdings, Qbe Insurance, Symbio Holdings and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks
  • QBE Insurance – COR 109% in N America Commercial, Where Growth Is High | Debt Surges USD700m in 1H23
  • Symbio (SYM AU): Superloop’s Best and Final Offer


Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks

By Arun George

  • Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) led consortium at A$3.20 per share. 
  • The key conditions are regulatory and shareholder approval. China SAMR regulatory approval poses a risk, primarily related to timing. Costa anticipates completion in 1Q24.
  • The headcount test related to the retail vote remains a risk. The risk/reward is unfavourable as the deal break downside (10%+) outweighs the offer’s upside (3.6% at last close).  

QBE Insurance – COR 109% in N America Commercial, Where Growth Is High | Debt Surges USD700m in 1H23

By Daniel Tabbush

  • QBE Insurance is seeing a deteriorating combined operating ratio, in part due to CAT events and it unclear to us how underwriting, exposures will immediately improve
  • Net profit is nearly static, USD750m in FY21, USD770m in FY22. USD400m profit in 1H23 may note repeat in 2H23, due in part to USD700m more debt in interim.
  • North America net earned premiums are seeing far more distribution toward Commercial, where the COR is especially poor at 109% in 1H23

Symbio (SYM AU): Superloop’s Best and Final Offer

By Arun George

  • Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) disclosed a revised indicative “best and final” proposal from Superloop Ltd (SLC AU). The terms (A$1.425 cash and 2.14 SLC shares per SYM share) remain unchanged.
  • The two key changes are there is no due diligence condition and a mix-and-match option subject to scale back to achieve a maximum of 60% cash or 60% scrip.
  • The offer is conditional on entering a scheme implementation agreement by 29 September. The offer is palatable and the Board is likely to succumb and sign a binding agreement.

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Daily Brief India: Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023


Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Greentown China
  3. China Vanke
  4. First Pacific Co
  5. JSW Infrastructure

and more…


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Daily Brief Indonesia: Barito Renewables and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Barito Renewables IPO – Quick Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation – Good Assets but Bad Price


Barito Renewables IPO – Quick Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation – Good Assets but Bad Price

By Ethan Aw

  • Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ) is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO.
  • Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm.
  • In our previous note, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Hang Seng Index, Vedanta Resources and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Online Marketplaces: Recap of 2Q Results
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Connecting the Dots
  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023
  • Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023


China Online Marketplaces: Recap of 2Q Results

By Eric Chen

  • The sector sees dramatic improvement in profitability and cashflow thanks to cutback on marketing expenses and headcount reduction.
  • Topline growth is recovering but still clouded by sluggish macro conditions. It is understandable that investors treat these China proxies – one way or another – with caution.
  • The sector’s valuation will remain pressured before the property market stabilizes and key macro indicators show concrete signs of improvement, in our view.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Connecting the Dots

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Greentown China
  3. China Vanke
  4. First Pacific Co
  5. JSW Infrastructure

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 22 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China Jinmao Holdings
  2. Greentown China
  3. China Vanke
  4. First Pacific Co
  5. JSW Infrastructure

and more…


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Daily Brief United States: Soybean Active Contract, Immix Biopharma Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • El Niño Enhances Soybean Yields Creating Deflationary Impact on Its Prices
  • Immix Biopharma – NXC-201 gains orphan drug designation in ALA


El Niño Enhances Soybean Yields Creating Deflationary Impact on Its Prices

By Pranay Yadav

  • Soybean ranks as the most traded crop globally. It comprises 10% of the total value of global agriculture trade.
  • The Americas comprise >80% of total global production. China mops up ~60% of global imports and is primarily used to feed massive livestock.
  • Soybean is more prone to shocks from geopolitical disruptions. Weather also impacts Beans. El Niño favours Soybean yields.

Immix Biopharma – NXC-201 gains orphan drug designation in ALA

By Edison Investment Research

Immix has announced that the FDA has granted orphan drug designation (ODD) to CAR-T asset NXC-201 for amyloid light chain amyloidosis (ALA). This occurred approximately a month after the announced ODD for multiple myeloma (MM), the other indication that Immix is pursuing with NXC-201. The benefits of ODD include seven years of US market exclusivity post approval, tax credits for qualified clinical trials and exemption from the Prescription Drug User Fee (c $3m for a new drug). ODD is issued to drugs/biologics intended for the safe and effective treatment, diagnosis or prevention of rare diseases/conditions that affect fewer than 200k people in the US. Achieving ODD in both MM and ALA marks an important development for the progress of NXC-201, which has shown encouraging signs on both the clinical and regulatory fronts. We believe that the next readout (expected in September 2023) from the ongoing NEXICART-1 trial could be a significant catalyst for the company.


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Daily Brief Japan: Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt, Stellantis NV, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): In-Line Q1 Result; FY24 Guidance Reaffirmed
  • Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value
  • Public Opinion Is Slowly Catching Up, but the Change Has Only Just Begun


Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): In-Line Q1 Result; FY24 Guidance Reaffirmed

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q1FY24, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) reported 7% YoY revenue growth to ¥24B, due to solid performance in the medical care and the nursing care businesses.
  • Due to higher SG&A expenses, operating profit grew just 2% YoY to ¥3.3B. Net profit rose 7% YoY to ¥2.9B, mainly due to 13% YoY increase in foreign exchange gains.
  • Paramount has reiterated FY24 guidance, which calls for 6% YoY revenue growth, 4% YoY operating profit growth, and 6% YoY growth in net profit.

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

By Joe Jasper

  • Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
  • We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.

Public Opinion Is Slowly Catching Up, but the Change Has Only Just Begun

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Activist investors’ proposals were consistently based on increasing shareholder returns. The change in the environment, in which % of foreign shareholders increased while cross-held shares decreased, had a major impact.
  • Regarding the selection of directors, discussion on contents of Skill Matrix should be more active, as it’s suspected that top management is selecting candidates who are aligned with their wishes.
  • The voting standards of domestic institutional investors are iridescent and still dependent on public opinion for each proposal. The change in public opinion has only just begun.

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Most Read: MOG Digitech Holdings , Toshiba Corp, Newcrest Mining, Kokusai Electric , Intage Holdings, Midea Group Co Ltd A, Kum Yang, LG Corp, Costa Group Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • MOG Digitech (1942 HK): What the Flow Is Going On?
  • Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule
  • Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later
  • Intage Holdings (4326 JP): NAVF Selldown and Proration for NTT’s Partial Offer
  • Midea A/H Listing – Early Look – Probably Raising Acquisition Currency
  • KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening
  • LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis & Outperformance Likely Driven by Value Investors
  • Costa Backs Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid
  • Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks


MOG Digitech (1942 HK): What the Flow Is Going On?

By Brian Freitas

  • MOG Holdings (1942 HK) has been skyrocketing in price since the start of the year. Remarkably, there is little change in the number of shares that trade daily.
  • MOG Holdings (1942 HK) has a market cap of US$6.44bn and trades at a modest Price/Sales ratio of 75x and an equally modest Price to Book Value of 89.5x.
  • Liquidity has improved to the point where the stock could be added to some indices. However, there is a precedent of stocks not being added following market participant feedback.

Toshiba Tender Offer Ends Today – Upcoming Index Selldown Schedule

By Travis Lundy

  • The JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) closes today. I expect that we will see results announced as early as late tonight, but by law, by latest tomorrow.
  • There will be at least three major index downweights, and possibly deletions, most likely in the following five trading days.
  • This shows the approximate maximum share and dollar amounts to be sold, and approximate dates. 

Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

By Travis Lundy


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

By Brian Freitas

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.
  • At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1890/share, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will be valued at JPY 435bn (US$2.94bn).
  • The stock should be added to the TPX INDEX at the close on 29 November where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.

Intage Holdings (4326 JP): NAVF Selldown and Proration for NTT’s Partial Offer

By Arun George


Midea A/H Listing – Early Look – Probably Raising Acquisition Currency

By Sumeet Singh

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH), one of the world’s largest home appliance producers, aims to raise up to  US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

KRX Plans to Introduce Float Market Cap & Extreme Price Increases to KOSPI 200 Screening

By Sanghyun Park

  • In addition to full market cap and trading value, float-adjusted market cap will be added as a quantitative screening tool. 
  • Regarding extreme price increases, KRX plans to utilize the deviation between the average daily market capitalizations for two, three, and six months leading up to the screening base date.
  • We should consider designing trading setups that target stocks with relatively low free-float rates and high price volatility in recent months.

LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis & Outperformance Likely Driven by Value Investors

By Douglas Kim

  • Our NAV analysis of LG Corp suggests an implied market cap of 16.9 trillion won or 107,217 won per share which is 28.4% higher than current share price. 
  • We believe that LG Corp could announce another share buybacks representing 2-3% of outstanding shares in the next 6-12 months. 
  • Another reason that could result in LG Corp’s shares outperforming other major LG related shares is due to the value investors increasing capital allocation to higher dividend paying LG Corp.

Costa Backs Paine Schwartz’s Lower Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18 September, Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) announced A$3.20/share best and final Offer from Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) down from the A$3.50/share NBIO in July.
  • Costa’s shares wobbled – would they, won’t they be supportive? A break price beyond the undisturbed price loomed. Vanguard kicked out a chunk of shares below A$3.
  • This morning Costa and PSP entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed. The transaction is expected to close in 1Q24. Key conditions are Costa’s shareholder vote and FIRB/SAMR/EU approval. 

Costa Group (CGC AU): Binding Proposal Comes with Risks

By Arun George

  • Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP) led consortium at A$3.20 per share. 
  • The key conditions are regulatory and shareholder approval. China SAMR regulatory approval poses a risk, primarily related to timing. Costa anticipates completion in 1Q24.
  • The headcount test related to the retail vote remains a risk. The risk/reward is unfavourable as the deal break downside (10%+) outweighs the offer’s upside (3.6% at last close).  

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 15th): NAB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 15th): NAB, Newcrest Mining, Pilbara Minerals, Perpetual


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 15th): NAB, Newcrest Mining, Pilbara Minerals, Perpetual

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 15th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD0.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in NAB, Newcrest Mining, Pilbara Minerals, Perpetual, Sonic Healthcare, Metcash.

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