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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 16
0

Most Read: Brilliance China Automotive, ZOZO Inc, China Vanke (H), Aisin Seiki, Kenedix Office Investment Co, SK Square , Ilooda, IMAX China Holding, Tuhu Car, Anycolor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Brilliance China (1114 HK): Driving Back Into Passive Portfolios
  • March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split
  • Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (Sep 8):  ICBC, ABC, CCB, BOC, Vanke, NCL, Rails
  • The New Aisin (7259) MTP – Selling Crossholdings, Eventually
  • Kenedix J-REIT Family Merger – Still Room (And Time) To Move
  • SK Square: Will Alibaba Acquire 11st?
  • Latest Development & Potential First Target of Mandatory Tender Offer in Korea
  • IMAX China (1970 HK)’s Offer: 10th Oct Shareholder Vote
  • TUHU Car IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Anycolor (5032) – Great Quarter Guys! Again. Context Issues. Still.

Brilliance China (1114 HK): Driving Back Into Passive Portfolios

By Brian Freitas

  • Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) was deleted from local and global indices following its prolonged trading suspension from April 2021 to September 2022.
  • Following the resumption of trading, Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) was added to the HSCI in March and subsequently to Southbound Stock Connect.
  • The stock should be bought by global passive trackers over the next few months and there should be substantial passive inflows.

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split

By Travis Lundy

Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (Sep 8):  ICBC, ABC, CCB, BOC, Vanke, NCL, Rails

By Travis Lundy

  • The Brand-Spanking New (three weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore.
  • New stimulus measures appear to be triggering FOMO on real estate stocks, but a foreshortened week, yet again, makes one wonder. There IS money being applied though.
  • I expect more measures and more buying. I am not sure I would want to be short any Hs with a deep discount to the A the next few months.

The New Aisin (7259) MTP – Selling Crossholdings, Eventually

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyota Group autoparts maker Aisin Seiki (7259 JP) today announced a new Medium-Term Plan. They plan to shift their business away from “entrusted” business, towards BEV, Brakes, and “Safe/Comfort Entry”
  • They aim to grow revenues 25% from 2021 to 2025 and an additional 10-20% by 2030. 
  • They also aim to improve investment and capital efficiency, and that’s where we can look at the interesting possibilities.

Kenedix J-REIT Family Merger – Still Room (And Time) To Move

By Travis Lundy

SK Square: Will Alibaba Acquire 11st?

By Douglas Kim

  • Maeil Business Daily reported that Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) is considering on acquiring a controlling stake in 11st, which is a leading e-commerce platform owned by SK Square
  • In 2018, 11st was valued at 2.7 trillion won by financial investors. However, the current valuation of 11st is estimated to have declined to about 1 trillion won (US$760 million).
  • We estimate that the probability of Alibaba acquiring 11st is about 60-70%. 

Latest Development & Potential First Target of Mandatory Tender Offer in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Considering the progress of the legislative process at this juncture, the effective date could be as early as the end of this year or, at the latest, early next year.
  • Ilooda (164060 KS) will likely become the first case. A tender offer at ₩11,000 (a 30% premium to the current price) per share for 14%+1 share may greet us.
  • There is sufficient value in monitoring the interaction between the offer structure and stock price movement in the context of the first application of a mandatory tender offer in Korea.

IMAX China (1970 HK)’s Offer: 10th Oct Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 13 July, IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) announced a take-private transaction from its parent IMAX Corp (IMAX US) at HK$10/share. Terms have been declared final.
  • The price is a 9.65% premium to last close but a 39.47% premium over the closing price on the last full trading day, suggesting apparent news leakage.
  • The Scheme Doc is out and independent shareholders get to vote on the transaction on the 10th October. This vote could – should – be close. Only for the brave.

TUHU Car IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK), a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, has launched its HKEx IPO at a price range of HK$28.00-31.00 per share.
  • In TUHU Car IPO: The Investment Case, we highlighted the key elements of the investment case. In this note, we present our forecasts and discuss valuation.
  • Our valuation analysis suggests that Tuhu is reasonably priced at the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO. 

Anycolor (5032) – Great Quarter Guys! Again. Context Issues. Still.

By Travis Lundy

  • Nine months ago I first wrote on Anycolor (5032 JP). I thought the guidance growth pattern and valuations remarkable. Results handily beat guidance. Now we’re in Year 2 of guidance.
  • After the first full year listed, FY2024 guidance was for +30% in revenue to ¥33bn, and +35% growth in OP. For Q1, reported yesterday, actual results were +51% and +91%.
  • The stock is popping this AM, but it is still cheap vs growth rates and margins. There are, notably, still “context issues” here. They merit some consideration (and investigation).

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Robotics, Visional , Generac Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Robotics IPO: Exuberance Results in Valuation Disconnect
  • Visional: Steady Performance
  • Generac Holdings Inc.: Can The Partnership With Buildertrend Catalyze Revenues? – Major Drivers

Doosan Robotics IPO: Exuberance Results in Valuation Disconnect

By Arun George

Visional: Steady Performance

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Visional (4194 JP)‘s 4QFY07/23 revenue missed consensus by 0.2% despite revenues increasing 22.1% YoY to 14.73bn. Operating profit beat consensus by a huge margin of 21%.
  • Though revenue growth has slowed down, BizReach has maintained its steady performance while HRMOS continues to see strong growth with significant reduction in operating losses.
  • The company’s share price moved up by more than 5% following its earnings announcement and Visional remains our top pick in the Japanese HR space.

Generac Holdings Inc.: Can The Partnership With Buildertrend Catalyze Revenues? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Generac Holdings delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues above market expectations but failed to surpass the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The company faced challenges as residential product sales declined significantly by 44%, primarily due to a softer consumer spending environment impacting home standby generators and chore products.
  • In contrast, the company’s Global C&I product segment achieved an all-time quarterly sales high with approximately 24% growth, driven by broad-based expansion across regions and channels.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Anycolor , XL Axiata, ByteDance, Huawei Technology, Pegasystems Inc, Epsilon Net, Xerox Holdings , Broadcom and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Anycolor (5032) – Great Quarter Guys! Again. Context Issues. Still.
  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Linked Up for Future Growth
  • TikTok Launches In-App Shopping Feature in the U.S.
  • Huawei Tech-Powered EV Brand Rolls Out Upgraded Luxury SUV
  • Pegasystems Inc.: Their Focus on Pega Cloud ACV is Rewriting the Rulebook! – Major Drivers
  • Company Update – Epsilon Net S.A.
  • Xerox Holdings Corporation: Decoding Their Strategy to Slash Costs & Gain A Strong Position In Cloud Print! – Major Drivers
  • Broadcom Inc.: Understanding Their Recent Networking Boom and Beyond! – Major Drivers

Anycolor (5032) – Great Quarter Guys! Again. Context Issues. Still.

By Travis Lundy

  • Nine months ago I first wrote on Anycolor (5032 JP). I thought the guidance growth pattern and valuations remarkable. Results handily beat guidance. Now we’re in Year 2 of guidance.
  • After the first full year listed, FY2024 guidance was for +30% in revenue to ¥33bn, and +35% growth in OP. For Q1, reported yesterday, actual results were +51% and +91%.
  • The stock is popping this AM, but it is still cheap vs growth rates and margins. There are, notably, still “context issues” here. They merit some consideration (and investigation).

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Linked Up for Future Growth

By Angus Mackintosh

  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) continues to impress with its growth in revenues and data, driven by its 4G focus and high-quality network, with improving margins at the same time.
  • The XL convergence story continues to build, with convergence penetration increasing but the real kicker wILL come once the restructuring with Link Net completes but benefits are already accruing. 
  • XL Axiata remains the purest data player in Indonesia, with convergence set to be the next driver. Valuations are attractive on 4.4x FY2024E EV/EBITDA with strong growth ahead. 

TikTok Launches In-App Shopping Feature in the U.S.

By Caixin Global

  • In the face of mounting American political and regulatory pressure, the Chinese video app TikTok officially launched an online shopping feature in the U.S., aiming to cash in on its popularity among 150 million American users.
  • TikTok Shop will give brands, merchants, and creators the tools to sell directly through content on the app, the ByteDance Ltd.-owned enterprise said in a press release.
  • Users will now find a “Shop” button prominently displayed in certain videos and can buy tagged products directly from videos and livestreaming.

Huawei Tech-Powered EV Brand Rolls Out Upgraded Luxury SUV

By Caixin Global

  • Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. and its auto partner Seres Group Co. Ltd. (601127.SH +10.01%) launched an upgraded version of the Aito M7 electric SUV on Tuesday, marking the latest push by the tech giant into China’s highly competitive auto market.
  • With a starting price of 249,800 yuan ($34,280), deliveries of the luxury electric vehicle (EV) will begin immediately, Huawei said in a press release. The company is also offering a discount of 33,000 yuan to customers who place their orders before Oct. 7.
  • The model, which comes in five variants, is also equipped with Huawei ADS 2.0, the latest generation of its automated driving software and a digital cockpit powered by its Harmony operating system, the company said.

Pegasystems Inc.: Their Focus on Pega Cloud ACV is Rewriting the Rulebook! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Pegasystems delivered disappointing results as the company could not meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • Pega achieved a remarkable feat in the first half of 2023 by producing $114 million in cash flow from operations and $123 million in free cash flow.
  • The free cash flow dollars produced in the first half of the year was $123 million.

Company Update – Epsilon Net S.A.

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • EPSILON NET is a leading provider of Information Technology and related services in the Greek market.
  • With its broad portfolio of software applications and IT systems, the Company generates revenues from the segments of ERP, Accounting, HR, E-Invoicing and Educational Services.
  • EPSILON NET operates via 24 subsidiaries while it has a workforce of 1,200 employees and a network of +500 partners / resellers. 

Xerox Holdings Corporation: Decoding Their Strategy to Slash Costs & Gain A Strong Position In Cloud Print! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Xerox Holdings Corporation delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • This quarter, Quocirca recognized Xerox as a leader in cloud print services, recognizing the company for its breadth of customer service as well as its strategic vision.
  • Xerox Holdings received the renewal of a leading healthcare service company this quarter, boosting the yearly contract value by about 40%.

Broadcom Inc.: Understanding Their Recent Networking Boom and Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Broadcom managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • Infrastructure software revenue increased 5% yearly to 9 billion, while semiconductor solutions revenue gained 5% yearly to $6.9 billion.
  • Wireless revenue accounted for 24% of semiconductor revenue in the quarter and was up 4% sequentially but flat yearly.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: BP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • BP p.l.c.: Are Alternative Energy Projects Really A Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers

BP p.l.c.: Are Alternative Energy Projects Really A Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BP’s results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations.
  • Additionally, the strategic focus on transition growth engines, such as convenience business, EV charging, bioenergy, hydrogen projects, and renewables, positions the company as a proactive player in the changing energy landscape.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Financials: Hopson Development, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero, UBS Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 15 Sep 2023
  • Mitsubishi UFJ Financial: Their Secret Sauce in Tackling Global Economic Uncertainties
  • Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Negara as Our Preferred Pick
  • UBS Group AG: Will The Strategic Alliance With Numarics Provide A Competitive Edge? – Major Drivers

Weekly Wrap – 15 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Softbank Group
  2. China SCE
  3. Sino-Ocean Group
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Geely Auto

and more…

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial: Their Secret Sauce in Tackling Global Economic Uncertainties

By Baptista Research

  • Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • Despite increased G&A expenses, the company managed to rebound in terms of NOP, reaching a level before the introduction of negative interest rates.
  • We give Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Indonesian Banks Screener; Stick with Negara as Our Preferred Pick

By Victor Galliano

  • We retain Bank Negara as our top pick for its deep value attributes of low PE multiples and its attractive PEG ratio relative to sound returns and strong liquidity metrics
  • We also stick with our positive call on Bank Mandiri, for its premium returns and undemanding PE multiples; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics
  • Bank Rakyat again registered worsening pre-provision returns in 2Q23, even if there was QoQ cost of risk relief; its loan mix implies a high structural cost of risk going forward

UBS Group AG: Will The Strategic Alliance With Numarics Provide A Competitive Edge? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • UBS Group AG managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The total pretax profit after these adjustments was $1.1 billion, of which $2 billion came from the UBS subgroup and a loss of $0.8 billion from the Credit Suisse subgroup.
  • Furthermore, UBS Group’s financing division kept up its great performance, reporting its best second quarter and best first half ever.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Ilooda, InMed Pharmaceuticals, Insulet Corp, West Pharmaceutical Services Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Latest Development & Potential First Target of Mandatory Tender Offer in Korea
  • InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – White Paper Highlights Attributes of CBC
  • Insulet Corporation: Launch of Omnipod 5 & Other Major Developments
  • West Pharmaceutical Services: What Is Their Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

Latest Development & Potential First Target of Mandatory Tender Offer in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Considering the progress of the legislative process at this juncture, the effective date could be as early as the end of this year or, at the latest, early next year.
  • Ilooda (164060 KS) will likely become the first case. A tender offer at ₩11,000 (a 30% premium to the current price) per share for 14%+1 share may greet us.
  • There is sufficient value in monitoring the interaction between the offer structure and stock price movement in the context of the first application of a mandatory tender offer in Korea.

InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – White Paper Highlights Attributes of CBC

By Water Tower Research

  • Therapeutic attributes of CBC highlighted in white paper. InMed Pharmaceuticals’ commercial subsidiary BayMedica released a white paper, which collates a curated collection of scientific research on the physiological and potential therapeutic effects of cannabichromene (CBC).

  • CBC is BayMedica’s lead product sold to the health & wellness sector.

  • CBC demonstrates potent anti-inflammatory effects. Since the discovery of the endocannabinoid system (ES) in 1988, there has been mounting research into the interaction of cannabinoids with ES receptors, which regulate critical human functions, such as temperature, appetite, blood sugar, sleep, memory, emotional processing, pain, and inflammatory and immune responses. 

Insulet Corporation: Launch of Omnipod 5 & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Insulet Corporation exceeded analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • The company’s revenue for the second quarter surpassed its projections, growing by 33% overall at Omnipod, including 41% in the United States.
  • During the second quarter, Insulet made significant progress in its clinical and innovation programs.

West Pharmaceutical Services: What Is Their Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • West Pharmaceutical Services delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • Sales price increases provided $43.1 million or 5.6 percentage points of growth in the quarter.
  • The base Proprietary goods business expanded by the mid-teens and was the main driver of the second quarter achievement.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Robotics, Visional , Generac Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Robotics IPO: Exuberance Results in Valuation Disconnect
  • Visional: Steady Performance
  • Generac Holdings Inc.: Can The Partnership With Buildertrend Catalyze Revenues? – Major Drivers

Doosan Robotics IPO: Exuberance Results in Valuation Disconnect

By Arun George

Visional: Steady Performance

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Visional (4194 JP)‘s 4QFY07/23 revenue missed consensus by 0.2% despite revenues increasing 22.1% YoY to 14.73bn. Operating profit beat consensus by a huge margin of 21%.
  • Though revenue growth has slowed down, BizReach has maintained its steady performance while HRMOS continues to see strong growth with significant reduction in operating losses.
  • The company’s share price moved up by more than 5% following its earnings announcement and Visional remains our top pick in the Japanese HR space.

Generac Holdings Inc.: Can The Partnership With Buildertrend Catalyze Revenues? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Generac Holdings delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues above market expectations but failed to surpass the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The company faced challenges as residential product sales declined significantly by 44%, primarily due to a softer consumer spending environment impacting home standby generators and chore products.
  • In contrast, the company’s Global C&I product segment achieved an all-time quarterly sales high with approximately 24% growth, driven by broad-based expansion across regions and channels.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Millie Seojae , ZJLD Group , JD.com , Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Under Armour and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Millie’s Library IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • ZJLD Group (6979 HK):  More Near-Term Upside Expected
  • JD.com Inc ADR: Collaboration With Gucci & Other Drivers
  • Is Engagement Functioning Well with The “Engagement-Enhanced Passive” Approach Adopted by GPIF?
  • Under Armour Inc.: Can The New UA Rewards Program Further Boost Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Duplicate of Under Armour: New SlipSpeed Range For Athletes & Other Developments

Millie’s Library IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Millie’s Library (418470 KS) announced its IPO book building results. The IPO price has been determined at 23,000 won which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 1,915 institutions participated in this IPO survey and the demand ratio of 619.2 to 1.
  • Our valuation analysis suggests base case target price of 31,769 won per share, which is 38% higher than the the IPO price of 23,000 won.

ZJLD Group (6979 HK):  More Near-Term Upside Expected

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Since the inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect 7 trading days ago, ZJLD Group (6979 HK)’s stock price is up 16%, suggesting strong interest from the southbound investors.
  • ZJLD has one of the best channel inventory and distributor perception among all the sauce aroma baijiu brands currently.
  • Expect further share price upside mainly from southbound buy, as the baijiu sector is one of the most followed sectors in A-share.     

JD.com Inc ADR: Collaboration With Gucci & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • JD.com Inc. managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Service revenues grew, of which marketing and marketplace revenues were up.
  • During the quarter, JD.com noticed strong user engagement trends, including higher purchase rates and ARPU on its app.

Is Engagement Functioning Well with The “Engagement-Enhanced Passive” Approach Adopted by GPIF?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The GPIF employs a “passive enhanced engagement” approach, which is linked to TOPIX and engages in engagement activities with the portfolio companies. This approach should be examined for any challenges.
  • The challenge is whether GPIF’s extremely low management fees can engage in deep engagement with a large number of portfolio companies to reduce tracking error from TOPIX.
  • GPIF cites its inability to invest in equities in-house and the huge AUM as reasons for its bias toward passive funds. If this is an obstacle, reform should be considered.

Under Armour Inc.: Can The New UA Rewards Program Further Boost Revenue Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Under Armour delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Revenue decreased by 1% after considering the adverse effects of foreign exchange brought on by the strength of the US dollar.
  • Direct-to-consumer revenue climbed 4% to $544 million, owing to strong results in the e-commerce and retail channels.

Duplicate of Under Armour: New SlipSpeed Range For Athletes & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Under Armour delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Revenue decreased by 1% after considering the adverse effects of foreign exchange brought on by the strength of the US dollar.
  • Direct-to-consumer revenue climbed 4% to $544 million, owing to strong results in the e-commerce and retail channels.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): BHP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 8th): BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Woodside Energy, Rio Tinto, Igo, NAB, Insurance Austra, Qbe Insurance, Ventia Services.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief ESG: Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Natura’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with the Environmental and Social pillars, while Governance is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

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