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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: AmerisourceBergen Corp, MariMed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • AmerisourceBergen Corporation: Can The OneOncology Investment Become A Game Changer? – Key Drivers
  • MariMed, Inc. – MariMed Revolts Against 280E


AmerisourceBergen Corporation: Can The OneOncology Investment Become A Game Changer? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AmerisourceBergen managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • Their successes continue to highlight the worth of their pharmaceutical-centric strategy, which includes critical strategic relationships, specialist leadership, and full global commercialization services.
  • OneOncology’s practice management services also complement the company’s existing inventory management, practice analytics, and clinical trial support capabilities.

MariMed, Inc. – MariMed Revolts Against 280E

By Water Tower Research

  • On July 12th, MariMed stormed Boston Harbor to protest the unfair tax treatment of US cannabis companies.
  • The Boston Tea Party was a protest in 1773 where American colonists dumped British tea into the harbor to protest unfair taxation.
  • It fueled the push for independence and played a crucial role in the lead-up to the American Revolution.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Canon Inc, Alibaba Group Holding , Nanya Technology, Baidu, Millicom International Cellula, Western Digital, Globopar, Zebra Technologies Corp, Broadcom , Pure Storage Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Canon (7751) Buyback Almost Done, TPX Selldown to Come = Trade Vs Ricoh or Basket
  • Ant Buyback, a Painful Reality for Its Investors or Not, Depending When You Enter
  • Memory Monitor: Nanya Management Provides More Color on DRAM Cycle Bottom; Elan a Long W/ More Edge
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$162) TP Change]: Cut TP Due to Weaker Outlook in Ads and Cloud
  • Millicom – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Peloton Interactive Inc.: An App Update That Could Shake Up The Fitness World? – Key Drivers
  • Globo – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Zebra Technologies Corporation: Launch of TC22/TC27 & Other Drivers
  • Broadcom: A Well-Positioned Business, But Downward Risk Is Significant In The Near Term
  • Pure Storage Inc.: What’s Next for Their Evergreen Subscription Services? – Key Drivers


Canon (7751) Buyback Almost Done, TPX Selldown to Come = Trade Vs Ricoh or Basket

By Travis Lundy

  • Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced a second buyback this fiscal year on 15 June. As discussed here previously, Canon buybacks are short, sharp, and sweet. 
  • The recent one should be done imminently (15 May start ended 13 July). 16 June start? (Note: Canon reports buyback results at 3pm local time, and did not report today).
  • This time we have a double-setup with buyback ending and a large TOPIX sell on Canon on 28 July. 

Ant Buyback, a Painful Reality for Its Investors or Not, Depending When You Enter

By Fern Wang

  • Ant’s buyback valuation of $79bn is in line with market expectation
  • While 40% loss is deep for the latest round investors, earlier investors are still in the money
  • Alibaba is expected to record a profit of $18bn if it decided to join the buyback

Memory Monitor: Nanya Management Provides More Color on DRAM Cycle Bottom; Elan a Long W/ More Edge

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nanya Tech management extrapolated on their recent results call that they believe 2Q23 was the bottom for the DRAM cycle.
  • We’ve updated our Nanya Tech financial model and estimates; we still see a short-term trade back to Nanya Tech’s mid-June high. However, Elan Microelectronics is a Long with more edge.
  • While Nanya’s comments indicated a more delayed recovery for Memory than Micron’s recent guidance, overall the industry for Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung appears to be turning a corner.

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$162) TP Change]: Cut TP Due to Weaker Outlook in Ads and Cloud

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate Baidu’s ads revenue growth in 2Q23 will be 10.8% YoY. We largely cut our forecast of 3Q23’s ads revenue growth from 14.7% to 7.1%.
  • We lower Baidu’s core other revenue growth in 2Q23 from 18.0% to 9.0% YoY. Baidu’s smart transportation AI cloud business has been affected by the contraction in local government expenses.
  • We expect Baidu’s 2Q23’s rev./non-GAAP net income to be (2.3%)/ (1.9%) vs cons, also cut the TP to $162, which implies 16.5X PE in 2023.

Millicom – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Millicom’s ESG as “Adequate”, with a “Strong” score for Governance, but “Adequate” scores for the Social and Environmental pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


Peloton Interactive Inc.: An App Update That Could Shake Up The Fitness World? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Peloton Interactive delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Their management believes they are in a considerably better situation from the cost structure standpoint.
  • We give Peloton Interactive, Inc. a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Globo – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We view Globo’s ESG as “Weak”, despite its “Adequate” score in quantitative terms. The Social and Governance scores are “Weak”, while the Environmental score is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Globo Comunicacao e Participacoes SA (Globo), privately owned and controlled by the Marinho family, is the largest media group in Brazil. It controls the country’s leading broadcast TV network and its pay-TV programmer, as well as a diversified group of publishing companies and Internet content providers.

Zebra Technologies Corporation: Launch of TC22/TC27 & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Zebra delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Zebra adjusted its sales outlook due to softer demand in certain markets while remaining financially strong and actively managing its supply chain.
  • Zebra observed cautious spending behavior among enterprise customers, resulting in a shift from large orders to smaller ones.

Broadcom: A Well-Positioned Business, But Downward Risk Is Significant In The Near Term

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Broadcom remains as one of the best-positioned semiconductors stocks.
  • The recent rally, however, is factoring too optimistic scenario for the future and creates a downward risk for the share price.
  • Profitability would continue to experience strong tailwinds, but this is unlikely to bring significant rewards for shareholders.

Pure Storage Inc.: What’s Next for Their Evergreen Subscription Services? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Pure Storage managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Q1 operating earnings of approximately $20 million exceeded expectations, despite higher-than-expected salary expenditures and their first sales kickoff event since 2020.
  • Besides, despite the positive initial reception to FlashBlade//E, Pure Storage expects a modest revenue increase in the second half of the year.

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Daily Brief ESG: Millicom – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Millicom – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • TSE Should Shift Its Business Model from Growing Number of Listed Companies to Expanding Market Cap
  • Braskem Idesa – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Globo – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Pemex – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Millicom – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Millicom’s ESG as “Adequate”, with a “Strong” score for Governance, but “Adequate” scores for the Social and Environmental pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


TSE Should Shift Its Business Model from Growing Number of Listed Companies to Expanding Market Cap

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE, which receives listing fees from listed companies, has no choice but to take a negative attitude toward raising listing criteria that would reduce the number of listed companies.
  • Behind many companies with stagnant P/Bs is the fact that managers lack stock price consciousness and companies with stock price stagnation for years eliminated and continue to be listing.
  • In Japan, it is expected that industry restructuring, dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings, and going private will further increase through M&As, leading to a shakeout in the Japanese market.

Braskem Idesa – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We view Braskem Idesa’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are “Material” and Disclosure is “Strong”.
  • Braskem Idesa (Bakide), a single-asset 75%/25% JV between Braskem and Idesa, is Mexico’s largest polyethylene (PE) producer.

Globo – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We view Globo’s ESG as “Weak”, despite its “Adequate” score in quantitative terms. The Social and Governance scores are “Weak”, while the Environmental score is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Globo Comunicacao e Participacoes SA (Globo), privately owned and controlled by the Marinho family, is the largest media group in Brazil. It controls the country’s leading broadcast TV network and its pay-TV programmer, as well as a diversified group of publishing companies and Internet content providers.

Pemex – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Pemex’s ESG as “Weak”, in line with the “Weak” Environmental, Governance and Social scores. Controversies are “Material”, but Disclosure is “Adequate”.


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Daily Brief Consumer: IMAX China Holding, Fast Retailing, Patanjali Foods, Seven & I Holdings, Genda Inc, Fenbi Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • IMAX China (1970 HK): Parent Privatisation
  • Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity
  • Patanjali Foods FPO – Very Well Flagged with a Decent Discount
  • IMAX China (1970 HK): IMAX Corp’s Privatisation Offer
  • Seven & I Merger of FMCG Arms Signals Focus on Food – And Its All Good News
  • Fast Retailing (9983) | Exceptional Quarter
  • Fast Retailing: Strong Performance in China & Korea, But Valuation Could Weigh on Price Performance
  • Genda IPO – Has Weathered the Pandemic Better, Although Sector Doesn’t Seem to Be Growing Much
  • Fenbi (2469 HK):  Strong Positive Profit Alert for 1H2023
  • TSE Should Shift Its Business Model from Growing Number of Listed Companies to Expanding Market Cap


IMAX China (1970 HK): Parent Privatisation

By David Blennerhassett

  • This morning (13 July), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) announced a take-private transaction from its parent IMAX Corp (IMAX US) at HK$10/share.
  • The Offer price is a 9.65% premium to last close but a 39.47% premium over the closing price on the last full trading day. Evidently, there was news leakage.
  • IMAX US holds  71.63% in IMAX China, therefore the blocking stake at the Schene Meeting is 2.837% of shares out. 

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

By Travis Lundy

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
  • It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
  • Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.

Patanjali Foods FPO – Very Well Flagged with a Decent Discount

By Sumeet Singh

  • The promoters of Patanjali Foods aim to sell up to 9% of the company via an FPO. 
  • The sale is being done so as to increase the firm’s public shareholding to the minimum required 25% imposed by SEBI.
  • We have looked at the background of the deal in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the recent update and run the deal through our ECM framework.

IMAX China (1970 HK): IMAX Corp’s Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from IMAX Corp (IMAX US) at HK$10.00 per share, a 39.5% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$7.17 on 10 July).
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • The offer price is final. While the offer price is light compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, the deal will likely succeed. 

Seven & I Merger of FMCG Arms Signals Focus on Food – And Its All Good News

By Michael Causton

  • It will take a couple of years to see financial improvement but recent reforms suggest  criticism of Seven & I’s inability to change may be increasingly unfair.
  • The latest in-group merger further demonstrates Seven & I’s desire to refocus on food and FMCG.It also suggests that Seven & I may double down on divestment from non-food retailing. 
  • The share price may fluctuate but the outlook for domestic fundamentals are better than they have been for years.

Fast Retailing (9983) | Exceptional Quarter

By Mark Chadwick

  • Another blow out quarter for Fast Retailing – beat and raise
  • Fears (well, mine) of a miss in China were unfounded
  • Still, Q3 results do nothing to change the view that this is one expensive stock

Fast Retailing: Strong Performance in China & Korea, But Valuation Could Weigh on Price Performance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) announced its 3QFY23 results today, surpassing the consensus OP estimate by approximately 10%.
  • Notably, there was strong revenue growth for Uniqlo, including in recently underperforming markets such as mainland China and South Korea.  
  • Despite the strong set of results, it appears that Fast Retailing is overvalued as the stock is currently trading at a valuation of over 20.0x its medium-term FY27 OP target.

Genda IPO – Has Weathered the Pandemic Better, Although Sector Doesn’t Seem to Be Growing Much

By Clarence Chu

  • Genda Inc (9166 JP) is looking to raise around US$100m in its Japan IPO.
  • Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
  • In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, share our earnings assumptions and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

Fenbi (2469 HK):  Strong Positive Profit Alert for 1H2023

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) announced after market today a very strong positive profit alert for 1H2023, with adjusted net profit up not less than 182% yoy.  
  • As a reminder, share price was heavily sold off in June due to pre-IPO shareholders selling, as well as weak market sentiment, niche sector, and new stock (under researched).
  • Even with the recent bounce back in share price with heavy volume, Fenbi is still very undervalued.

TSE Should Shift Its Business Model from Growing Number of Listed Companies to Expanding Market Cap

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE, which receives listing fees from listed companies, has no choice but to take a negative attitude toward raising listing criteria that would reduce the number of listed companies.
  • Behind many companies with stagnant P/Bs is the fact that managers lack stock price consciousness and companies with stock price stagnation for years eliminated and continue to be listing.
  • In Japan, it is expected that industry restructuring, dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings, and going private will further increase through M&As, leading to a shakeout in the Japanese market.

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Daily Brief Macro: Residential Real Estate: From Real to Scarce Asset? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Residential Real Estate: From Real to Scarce Asset?
  • Inflation Watch: Why Norway and the UK are the odd ones out on inflation
  • 5-Year Yields Pivoting


Residential Real Estate: From Real to Scarce Asset?

By Jeroen Blokland

  • The 30-year mortgage rate and monthly home supply are excellent forecasters of changes in US home prices. They reveal that the brunt of the price decline is yet to come. 
  • However, cyclical and structural supply issues combined with stellar growth in US household formations mean residential real estate is increasingly behaving like a scarce asset.
  • As a result, cyclically-caused home price declines will likely become more shallow as recoveries arrive more swiftly and forcefully.

Inflation Watch: Why Norway and the UK are the odd ones out on inflation

By Andreas Steno

  • We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that in the data.
  • Core inflation momentum (MoM annualized) is below target in several large economies including the US, France and Brazil, but there are a few odd ones out with substantially increasing core inflation momentum such as Norway and the UK.
  • What makes Norway and the UK stand out?

5-Year Yields Pivoting

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • European yields were already under pressure before the US ADP data release.
  • However, the market suddenly paid attention to a private data point previously ignored in favour of the NFP report.
  • Rather than the headline number, the positioning and break of key resistance levels significantly impacted yields.

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Daily Brief ECM: Patanjali Foods FPO – Very Well Flagged with a Decent Discount and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Patanjali Foods FPO – Very Well Flagged with a Decent Discount
  • TRYT IPO: Valuation Updates
  • Genda IPO – Has Weathered the Pandemic Better, Although Sector Doesn’t Seem to Be Growing Much
  • Autostreets Development Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Patanjali Foods FPO – Very Well Flagged with a Decent Discount

By Sumeet Singh

  • The promoters of Patanjali Foods aim to sell up to 9% of the company via an FPO. 
  • The sale is being done so as to increase the firm’s public shareholding to the minimum required 25% imposed by SEBI.
  • We have looked at the background of the deal in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the recent update and run the deal through our ECM framework.

TRYT IPO: Valuation Updates

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • TRYT has priced its IPO at ¥1,200 per share, at the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range, at a market capitalisation and post-money EV of ¥120bn and ¥151.6bn respectively.
  • In our previous insight, we compared the company’s implied trailing multiples with peer trailing multiples and concluded that TRYT’s IPO is overvalued at the above price range.
  • In this insight, we have discussed our forecasts for Tryt Inc (9164 JP) and updated our valuation for the company.

Genda IPO – Has Weathered the Pandemic Better, Although Sector Doesn’t Seem to Be Growing Much

By Clarence Chu

  • Genda Inc (9166 JP) is looking to raise around US$100m in its Japan IPO.
  • Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
  • In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, share our earnings assumptions and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

Autostreets Development Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Autostreets Development (AUTOSTR0 CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Citic Securities and Haitong International.
  • Autostreets Development is China’s largest used vehicle transaction platform in terms of transaction volume in 2022, according to CIC. 
  • In 2022, approximately 160,000 units of used vehicles were transacted through its transaction platform, with a market share of 12.6% among China’s used vehicle transaction platforms, as per the company. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Ant Buyback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Ant Buyback, a Painful Reality for Its Investors or Not, Depending When You Enter
  • Seven & I Merger of FMCG Arms Signals Focus on Food – And Its All Good News
  • Fast Retailing (9983) | Exceptional Quarter
  • Memory Monitor: Nanya Management Provides More Color on DRAM Cycle Bottom; Elan a Long W/ More Edge
  • Fast Retailing: Strong Performance in China & Korea, But Valuation Could Weigh on Price Performance
  • JAL Aims for ¥12 Billion from New Online Mall
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$162) TP Change]: Cut TP Due to Weaker Outlook in Ads and Cloud
  • Fenbi (2469 HK):  Strong Positive Profit Alert for 1H2023
  • Short Note: HK RE – Supportive Mortgage Policy, Resi Developers Are Trading at Trough Valuation
  • Levi Strauss & Co.: Driving Growth with DTC


Ant Buyback, a Painful Reality for Its Investors or Not, Depending When You Enter

By Fern Wang

  • Ant’s buyback valuation of $79bn is in line with market expectation
  • While 40% loss is deep for the latest round investors, earlier investors are still in the money
  • Alibaba is expected to record a profit of $18bn if it decided to join the buyback

Seven & I Merger of FMCG Arms Signals Focus on Food – And Its All Good News

By Michael Causton

  • It will take a couple of years to see financial improvement but recent reforms suggest  criticism of Seven & I’s inability to change may be increasingly unfair.
  • The latest in-group merger further demonstrates Seven & I’s desire to refocus on food and FMCG.It also suggests that Seven & I may double down on divestment from non-food retailing. 
  • The share price may fluctuate but the outlook for domestic fundamentals are better than they have been for years.

Fast Retailing (9983) | Exceptional Quarter

By Mark Chadwick

  • Another blow out quarter for Fast Retailing – beat and raise
  • Fears (well, mine) of a miss in China were unfounded
  • Still, Q3 results do nothing to change the view that this is one expensive stock

Memory Monitor: Nanya Management Provides More Color on DRAM Cycle Bottom; Elan a Long W/ More Edge

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nanya Tech management extrapolated on their recent results call that they believe 2Q23 was the bottom for the DRAM cycle.
  • We’ve updated our Nanya Tech financial model and estimates; we still see a short-term trade back to Nanya Tech’s mid-June high. However, Elan Microelectronics is a Long with more edge.
  • While Nanya’s comments indicated a more delayed recovery for Memory than Micron’s recent guidance, overall the industry for Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung appears to be turning a corner.

Fast Retailing: Strong Performance in China & Korea, But Valuation Could Weigh on Price Performance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) announced its 3QFY23 results today, surpassing the consensus OP estimate by approximately 10%.
  • Notably, there was strong revenue growth for Uniqlo, including in recently underperforming markets such as mainland China and South Korea.  
  • Despite the strong set of results, it appears that Fast Retailing is overvalued as the stock is currently trading at a valuation of over 20.0x its medium-term FY27 OP target.

JAL Aims for ¥12 Billion from New Online Mall

By Michael Causton

  • Shopping may be a tiny fraction of Japan Airlines (9201 JP) business but every little helps.
  • JAL has long offered a popular mail order catalogue selling premium products but has now converted its catalogues into an online mall. 
  • This means it can offer many more and new types of merchant and product, and create more connection with its customers.

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$162) TP Change]: Cut TP Due to Weaker Outlook in Ads and Cloud

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate Baidu’s ads revenue growth in 2Q23 will be 10.8% YoY. We largely cut our forecast of 3Q23’s ads revenue growth from 14.7% to 7.1%.
  • We lower Baidu’s core other revenue growth in 2Q23 from 18.0% to 9.0% YoY. Baidu’s smart transportation AI cloud business has been affected by the contraction in local government expenses.
  • We expect Baidu’s 2Q23’s rev./non-GAAP net income to be (2.3%)/ (1.9%) vs cons, also cut the TP to $162, which implies 16.5X PE in 2023.

Fenbi (2469 HK):  Strong Positive Profit Alert for 1H2023

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) announced after market today a very strong positive profit alert for 1H2023, with adjusted net profit up not less than 182% yoy.  
  • As a reminder, share price was heavily sold off in June due to pre-IPO shareholders selling, as well as weak market sentiment, niche sector, and new stock (under researched).
  • Even with the recent bounce back in share price with heavy volume, Fenbi is still very undervalued.

Short Note: HK RE – Supportive Mortgage Policy, Resi Developers Are Trading at Trough Valuation

By Jacob Cheng

  • On July 7, HKMA announced measures to ease property based lending. The major changes involve relaxation of LTVs, according to property values
  • We see these policies target the up-graders and will support the residential market. Housing price has been on a decline trend since early 2022
  • Residential developers are trading at attractive valuation.  In particular, we see a lot of upside for 17 HK NWD and 101 HK HLP

Levi Strauss & Co.: Driving Growth with DTC

By Baptista Research

  • Levi Strauss managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • Starting with Levi’s brand, they increased market share this quarter, establishing share leadership in the United States among the important 18- to 30-year-old target consumer group, and they continue to increase share in women’s denim bottoms.
  • The Levi’s brand increased by 9% in the quarter, with their men’s bottoms business reaching a significant level in Q1 and women’s bottoms generating its highest revenue of any quarter.

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Daily Brief Crypto: The State of Stablecoins and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The State of Stablecoins


The State of Stablecoins

By Kaiko

  • Stablecoins are systemically important in cryptocurrency markets, so even the slightest depeg can cause mass market contagion.
  • As such, it is concerning that stablecoins have been particularly volatile since the start of 2023
  • TUSD wobbled amid Prime Trust’s closure, USDT depegged due to mysterious selling activity, BUSD has been increasingly volatile since Paxos halted issuance, and USDC crashed during the March banking crisis.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future – KHI(7012)Revisit
  • Nanya Q2’23 Results. Doldrums Ahoy!
  • China TMT Update-PDD/BABA/BEKE/LUCKIN- PDD Testing “RMB 9.9” Channel;BEKE Launching “Bei Hao Jia”
  • Mat Chem Notes Week Ending July 9, 2023


Ohayo Japan| Lower Rates, Higher Stocks; Crypto Optimism; NUGGET: Hydrogen Future – KHI(7012)Revisit

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  Disinflation Trade on as US PPI provides more tailwinds; Rates, USD Fall; Equites rally, More China Stimulus Coming ? Ripple resolution spurs Crypto bid; AI Wars: Meta Updates BARD
  • JAPAN. Nikkei Futures +1% vs Cash; USDJPY 138; Set for Beta bid in Stocks; Blow out Fast Retailing numbers; Barclays see Sept BOJ tweek; Bullish Bank Initiations from UBS
  • NUGGET.  Hydrogen is a key part of JP Govt carbon zero strategy. We see KHI(7012) as a Hydrogen winner and see the recent pullback as a good entry opportunity

Nanya Q2’23 Results. Doldrums Ahoy!

By William Keating

  • Q2’23 revenues of NT$ 7,027 million, up 9.4% sequentially but down 61% YoY. Net losses declined QoQ, mainly due to favourable Fx and Income tax charges
  • Similar to Micron, while bit shipments increased QoQ, ASPs declined. This is not a road to recovery out of the memory segment downturn
  • While customer inventories have largely normalised, supplier inventories remain elevated. Until this corrects or demand surges, Nanya and peers will remain in the doldrums. 

China TMT Update-PDD/BABA/BEKE/LUCKIN- PDD Testing “RMB 9.9” Channel;BEKE Launching “Bei Hao Jia”

By Shawn Yang

  • PDD/BABA: PDD testing large “RMB 9.9” channel entrance on the PDD app homepage (+/-)
  • BEKE: Beike announced to expand business toward industry upstream, establishing “Bei Hao Jia” business line(+)
  • Luckin Coffee & Nayuki: Media survey suggest that coffee price war is hurting milk tea’s business

Mat Chem Notes Week Ending July 9, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR-CMI last week. In a flat to down market last week, with S&P 500 holding steady with 0.1% price change and Russell 2000 losing 0.9% of its value, our proprietary WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and material technology companies appreciated 0.5% for the week, led by 8.5% appreciation in ALB, which seemed to pull along other lithium names, including PLL, LAC and LTHM, which all posted 2-4% returns.

  • EAF was the index’s laggard, losing 9.4% of its value, possibly due to continued softness in the iron ore and steel production sectors.

  • EU relooks at GMO crops. Long a bulwark against expansion of GMO crops, the EU is taking another look at the 2001 rules which were a major obstacle to market penetration by genetically modified seeds that provide better yields, higher nutritional value, and require less water and less pesticides to produce.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Canon (7751) Buyback Almost Done and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Canon (7751) Buyback Almost Done, TPX Selldown to Come = Trade Vs Ricoh or Basket
  • IMAX China (1970 HK): Parent Privatisation
  • Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity
  • IMAX China (1970 HK): IMAX Corp’s Privatisation Offer
  • Will Hana Financial Acquire KDB Life Insurance?
  • EQD | S&P/ASX200: Ideas to Profit From a Directionless Market


Canon (7751) Buyback Almost Done, TPX Selldown to Come = Trade Vs Ricoh or Basket

By Travis Lundy

  • Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced a second buyback this fiscal year on 15 June. As discussed here previously, Canon buybacks are short, sharp, and sweet. 
  • The recent one should be done imminently (15 May start ended 13 July). 16 June start? (Note: Canon reports buyback results at 3pm local time, and did not report today).
  • This time we have a double-setup with buyback ending and a large TOPIX sell on Canon on 28 July. 

IMAX China (1970 HK): Parent Privatisation

By David Blennerhassett

  • This morning (13 July), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) announced a take-private transaction from its parent IMAX Corp (IMAX US) at HK$10/share.
  • The Offer price is a 9.65% premium to last close but a 39.47% premium over the closing price on the last full trading day. Evidently, there was news leakage.
  • IMAX US holds  71.63% in IMAX China, therefore the blocking stake at the Schene Meeting is 2.837% of shares out. 

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

By Travis Lundy

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
  • It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
  • Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.

IMAX China (1970 HK): IMAX Corp’s Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from IMAX Corp (IMAX US) at HK$10.00 per share, a 39.5% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$7.17 on 10 July).
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • The offer price is final. While the offer price is light compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, the deal will likely succeed. 

Will Hana Financial Acquire KDB Life Insurance?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 13 July, it was reported in the local media that the Korea Development Bank selected Hana Financial as the preferred bidder for the sale of KDB Life Insurance. 
  • The potential overpaying for KDB Life and the rising delinquency rates of loans by all the major banks in Korea are likely to result in continued underperformance of Hana Financial. 
  • If Hana Financial is able to acquire KDB Life Insurance, this would boost Hana Financial as the 8th largest life insurance company in Korea in terms of asset size.

EQD | S&P/ASX200: Ideas to Profit From a Directionless Market

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P/ASX 200 INDEX has been stuck in the 7000-7400 range for the past 16 weeks.
  • If the index continues to be trendless for some more weeks, it’s possible to profit from repeatedly writing Covered Calls against ASX 200 index holdings.
  • Strike target areas for Covered Calls begin in the 7319-7409 (July 20 expiry). Deeper OTM Strikes are safe,  but the premiums are smaller.

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