Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.
Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.
Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.

NSDL IPO: The Bear Case

National Securities Depository Limited/NSDL (NSDL IN) is the largest depository in India. It is seeking to raise US$400 million.
In NSDL IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the core business’s lower growth and margins compared to its key peer and the banking services’ weak performance.

JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead

Volume: JSW Steel reported 7.26 Mnt of crude steel production in Q1 FY26, up 14% YoY, despite seasonal and maintenance-related disruptions.
Expansion: The company is on track to scale up its capacity from 35.7 MTPA to 43.4 MTPA by FY28, led by ramp-ups at Vijayanagar, Dolvi, and greenfield Odisha.
BPSL: Legal clarity on the BPSL acquisition remains pending, though operations have been successfully ramped up to 4.5 MTPA under JSW’s management.

Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance

Tata Steel’s total crude steel production stood at 7.29 million tons in 1QFY26, flat YoY but down 3% QoQ due to upstream maintenance disruptions in India.
In Europe, the Netherlands saw steady output, while the UK is progressing with its 3.2 MTPA EAF transition at Port Talbot, slated to begin construction in July 2025.
With blast furnace relining at Jamshedpur nearing completion and NINL operations normalized, volume recovery is expected from Q2 onward.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief China: Guangzhou Automobile Group, Zijin Mining Group , Meituan, Hang Seng Index, Orient Overseas International, Geely Auto, Baige Online Digital Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression
Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst
ECM Weekly (14 July 2025) – Meituan, SBI, Kokusai, NTT, Daehan, Anthem, SICC, CIG, FWD
Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19
Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Non-Bank Financials Hot
Baige Online Digital Technology – The Business Model and the Risks Behind

A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues – BIG AH Premia Compression

By Travis Lundy

AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.
Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.
The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.

ECM Weekly (14 July 2025) – Meituan, SBI, Kokusai, NTT, Daehan, Anthem, SICC, CIG, FWD

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, the previous week was another busy week for listings, with mixed results.
On the placements front, we looked at the possible placements for Meituan (3690 HK) and State Bank Of India (SBIN IN).

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

By Nico Rosti

A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 – July 19.
The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from Amazon.com (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)
In Asia, BYD (1211 HK) is very oversold, and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is also oversold. Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) start to be overbought.

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Orient Overseas International (316 HK)‘s 25.9% YTD surge in share price is difficult to justify, as the load factor started to contract and the average freight rate declined.
Transpacific and Asia-Europe freight rates plunged by 14.7% and 17.3% in 2Q25, respectively. The transpacific volume also registered the first YoY decline in the quarter.
Its P/B of 0.85x is 1SD above average, and is way higher than FY21-22. However, the FY25F earnings of US$1.5bn are incomparable to US$7-10bn in FY21-22.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 11 July 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Non-Bank Financials Hot

By Travis Lundy

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Baige Online Digital Technology – The Business Model and the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Baige’s business model is B2B2C, connecting insurance companies/channel partners and C-end users.By mining long-tail needs of end-customers and customizing small/refined/fragmented insurance products according to personalized needs, Baige significantly boost sales.
High customer acquisition costs (referral fees, commissions/service fees) are the pain points, putting pressure on profit margin. The trend of “disintermediation” in the industry is becoming increasingly evident.
The post-money valuation after Series C financing reached about RMB2 billion. Due to smaller revenue scale and lower profitability, we think valuation of Baige should be lower than peers.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief Japan: Shibaura Electronics, Casio Computer, Toyota Industries, Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co, Mani Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy
Japan Activism Briefs | Casio, Nittoku
Weekly Deals Digest (13 Jul) – Toyota Industries, OneConnect, Great Eastern, Johns Lyng, NTT DC REIT
Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Guidance Reiterated Amid Seemingly Temporary Hiccup in Q1FY26
Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Recalls Still a Pain Point, Guidance Revised Downwards

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), New World Resources (NWC AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU).

Japan Activism Briefs | Casio, Nittoku

By Mark Chadwick

Oasis Management disclosed a 5.2% stake, increasing pressure on Casio to improve capital efficiency and strategic clarity.
City Index disclosed a 5.1% stake, signalling intent to drive value at Nittoku via capital return and improved governance.
3D Investment continue to add to Square Enix position. 3D and Dalton likely to target weak margins, bloated cash, and capital inefficiency – lots to work with.

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Jul) – Toyota Industries, OneConnect, Great Eastern, Johns Lyng, NTT DC REIT

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) and NSDL (NSDL IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Johns Lyng (JLG AU), New World Resources (NWC AU).

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Guidance Reiterated Amid Seemingly Temporary Hiccup in Q1FY26

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) Q1FY26 revenue of ¥34.7B down 3% YoY, mainly driven by subdued performance in Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
Rx business revenues grew 7% as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch,Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers excepting Mohrus product line.
Hisamitsu reiterated FY26 guidance expecting revenue to be ¥165B with profits growth expected to decelerate on higher cost.

Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Recalls Still a Pain Point, Guidance Revised Downwards

Mani Inc (7730 JP) 9MFY25 revenue increased 3% YoY to ¥22.3B mainly due to strong sales of Surgical products and Eyeless Needle products, while Dental segment sales dipped on recall.
Operating margin deteriorated to 27.5% in 9MFY25, down 260bps. Segment wise, dental segment reported the worst operating margin decline from 19.6% to 10.4%.
Management revised FY25 guidance downwards, now expecting revenue to be ¥29.6B (previous guidance ¥30.2B), up 3.8% YoY. Profits and margins also witnessed a downward revision.

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Jul 14

Daily Brief Industrials: Orient Overseas International and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Orient Overseas International (316 HK)‘s 25.9% YTD surge in share price is difficult to justify, as the load factor started to contract and the average freight rate declined.
Transpacific and Asia-Europe freight rates plunged by 14.7% and 17.3% in 2Q25, respectively. The transpacific volume also registered the first YoY decline in the quarter.
Its P/B of 0.85x is 1SD above average, and is way higher than FY21-22. However, the FY25F earnings of US$1.5bn are incomparable to US$7-10bn in FY21-22.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jul 14

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Perenti Global, Zijin Mining Group , Indian Energy Exchange Ltd, Iron Ore, Provaris Energy , SPDR Gold Shares, JSW Steel Ltd, Tata Steel Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)
Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst
IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution
Iron Ore: Mill Spreads Continue to Improve, Bullish Ore To 110 USD/Ton
Provaris Energy Ltd – On the cusp of commerciality
An Update on Gold: Time for a Pause?
JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead
Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance

ASX200 Index AdHoc Rebalance Preview: Potential Replacement for Spartan Resources (SPR AU)

By Brian Freitas

There will be an ad hoc inclusion for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 22 July following Spartan Resources (SPR AU)‘s acquisition by Ramelius Resources (RMS AU).
There are a couple of stocks that are trading neck and neck on average free float market cap and one of them is likely to be added to the index.
Both stocks have seen a big increase in cumulative excess volume over the last few weeks, indicative of positioning in the stock.

Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.
Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.
The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.

IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.
Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.
Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.

Iron Ore: Mill Spreads Continue to Improve, Bullish Ore To 110 USD/Ton

By Sameer Taneja

We had called iron ore Iron Ore: Small Bounce From 96 to 100 USD/Ton As China Mill Margins Turn Positive, and we are now at 99 USD/ton.
We continue to see mill margins benefit and the restock in the chain, including coking coal, which has started to move up, and forecast a gradual uptick to 110 USD/ton.
We express our bullishness through owning Fenix Resources (FEX AU), a small-cap iron ore miner (read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News )

Provaris Energy Ltd – On the cusp of commerciality

Provaris Energy Ltd (ASX:PV1) represents a unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
The keystone to production and growth is the company’s proprietary ‘storage tank’ IP, enabling greater volumes of compressed gases to transport at lower cost (‘more for less’).
The company holds a material early-mover advantage with a number of strategic partnerships and two hydrogen supply, offtake and shipping agreements expected to become unconditional over the next 12 months.

An Update on Gold: Time for a Pause?

By Cam Hui

Gold violated its rising trend line in all major currencies except yen, which may be a technical warning of a tiring bull. Is it time to turn cautious?
We remain gold bulls. Gold prices are consolidating after strong gains in H1 2025, but the trend is still up.
Bullish sentiment isn’t stretched and central bank buying provides long-term demand.

JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead

Volume: JSW Steel reported 7.26 Mnt of crude steel production in Q1 FY26, up 14% YoY, despite seasonal and maintenance-related disruptions.
Expansion: The company is on track to scale up its capacity from 35.7 MTPA to 43.4 MTPA by FY28, led by ramp-ups at Vijayanagar, Dolvi, and greenfield Odisha.
BPSL: Legal clarity on the BPSL acquisition remains pending, though operations have been successfully ramped up to 4.5 MTPA under JSW’s management.

Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance

Tata Steel’s total crude steel production stood at 7.29 million tons in 1QFY26, flat YoY but down 3% QoQ due to upstream maintenance disruptions in India.
In Europe, the Netherlands saw steady output, while the UK is progressing with its 3.2 MTPA EAF transition at Port Talbot, slated to begin construction in July 2025.
With blast furnace relining at Jamshedpur nearing completion and NINL operations normalized, volume recovery is expected from Q2 onward.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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Jul 14

Daily Brief Industrials: Orient Overseas International and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Orient Overseas International (316 HK)‘s 25.9% YTD surge in share price is difficult to justify, as the load factor started to contract and the average freight rate declined.
Transpacific and Asia-Europe freight rates plunged by 14.7% and 17.3% in 2Q25, respectively. The transpacific volume also registered the first YoY decline in the quarter.
Its P/B of 0.85x is 1SD above average, and is way higher than FY21-22. However, the FY25F earnings of US$1.5bn are incomparable to US$7-10bn in FY21-22.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 14

Daily Brief Health Care: Baige Online Digital Technology, Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co, Mani Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Baige Online Digital Technology – The Business Model and the Risks Behind
Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Guidance Reiterated Amid Seemingly Temporary Hiccup in Q1FY26
Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Recalls Still a Pain Point, Guidance Revised Downwards

Baige Online Digital Technology – The Business Model and the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Baige’s business model is B2B2C, connecting insurance companies/channel partners and C-end users.By mining long-tail needs of end-customers and customizing small/refined/fragmented insurance products according to personalized needs, Baige significantly boost sales.
High customer acquisition costs (referral fees, commissions/service fees) are the pain points, putting pressure on profit margin. The trend of “disintermediation” in the industry is becoming increasingly evident.
The post-money valuation after Series C financing reached about RMB2 billion. Due to smaller revenue scale and lower profitability, we think valuation of Baige should be lower than peers.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Guidance Reiterated Amid Seemingly Temporary Hiccup in Q1FY26

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) Q1FY26 revenue of ¥34.7B down 3% YoY, mainly driven by subdued performance in Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
Rx business revenues grew 7% as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch,Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers excepting Mohrus product line.
Hisamitsu reiterated FY26 guidance expecting revenue to be ¥165B with profits growth expected to decelerate on higher cost.

Mani Inc (7730 JP): Dental Recalls Still a Pain Point, Guidance Revised Downwards

Mani Inc (7730 JP) 9MFY25 revenue increased 3% YoY to ¥22.3B mainly due to strong sales of Surgical products and Eyeless Needle products, while Dental segment sales dipped on recall.
Operating margin deteriorated to 27.5% in 9MFY25, down 260bps. Segment wise, dental segment reported the worst operating margin decline from 19.6% to 10.4%.
Management revised FY25 guidance downwards, now expecting revenue to be ¥29.6B (previous guidance ¥30.2B), up 3.8% YoY. Profits and margins also witnessed a downward revision.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jul 14

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shibaura Electronics, Mediatek Inc, Kinatico and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy
MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.
Kinatico RaaS Interview Transcript 14 July 2025
Kinatico Ltd – Q4 SaaS revenue surpasses 50%, RaaS forecasts beat

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Jul) – Shibaura, Topcon, Nissin, OneConnect, Insignia, PointsBet, ENN Energy