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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Dali Foods Group, Delta Electronics Thai, Swire Pacific (B), Tube Investments of India, IREIT Global, Redox, Lunit , Tryt Inc, Daio Paper Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Privatisation Offer at HK$3.75
  • Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Scheme
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB): Potential SET50 Index Delete in December?
  • Swire Coke Sale Special Div Impacts B/A Ratio
  • AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Outperformance Continues
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | IREIT Global: Dividend Quality in a Challenging Market
  • Redox IPO Trading – Peers Have Mostly Corrected over the past Month
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in July 2023
  • Tryt IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Even with Optimistics Forecasts, The Firm Isn’t Cheap
  • Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023


Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Privatisation Offer at HK$3.75

By Arun George

  • Dali Foods Group (3799 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from the founder at HK$3.75 per share, a 37.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$2.72 on 20 June).
  • Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal. 

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Late last night (27 June), Dali Foods Group (3799 HK) a leading branded F&B play, announced a privatisation Offer by way of a Scheme from its founder/chairman/CEO Xu Shihui.
  • The cancellation price, which has been declared final, is HK$3.75/share, is a respectable 37.87% premium to undisturbed, but… 
  • Xu and concert parties control 88.89%, with disinterested shareholders holding 11.11%, therefore a blocking stake at the Scheme meeting is just 1.11% of shares out. 

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB): Potential SET50 Index Delete in December?

By Brian Freitas


Swire Coke Sale Special Div Impacts B/A Ratio

By Travis Lundy

  • Last night, Swire Pacific announced it planned to sell its US Coca Cola Distribution business to its parent company. That means a Circular, an IFA Opinion, and an EGM.
  • I expect a September EGM and the Special Div to follow in Q4. While I find the price low, I expect the deal to be approved by Swire shareholders.
  • This deal has an effect on the Swire B/A ratio. Some may get it. Some may not. Makes sense to be ready. Swire A is cheap. Swire B is cheaper.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Outperformance Continues

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
  • The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations and some stocks have seen large price moves over the last couple of weeks.
  • Active managers would have started realigning their portfolios and that could continue for a couple of weeks. Unwind long positions into strength.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | IREIT Global: Dividend Quality in a Challenging Market

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome IREIT Global’s CEO, Louis d’Estienne d’Orves.

In the upcoming webinar, Louis will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Thursday, 6 July 2023, 17:00 SGT.

About IREIT Global

IREIT Global, which was listed on 13 August 2014, is the first Singapore-listed real estate investment trust with the investment strategy of principally investing, directly or indirectly, in a portfolio of income-producing real estate in Europe which is used primarily for office, retail and industrial (including logistics) purposes, as well as real estate-related assets. IREIT Global’s current portfolio comprises five freehold office properties in Germany, five freehold office properties in Spain and 27 freehold retail properties in France.

IREIT Global is managed by IREIT Global Group Pte. Ltd., which is jointly owned by Tikehau Capital and City Developments Limited. Tikehau Capital is global alternative asset management group listed in France, while City Developments Limited is a leading global real estate company listed in Singapore.


Redox IPO Trading – Peers Have Mostly Corrected over the past Month

By Sumeet Singh

  • Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised around US$270m in its Australia IPO. The stock will begin to trade on 3rd July 2023.
  • In 2022 it was ranked as the largest chemicals and ingredients distributor in Australia, as well as the 13th largest in the Asia Pacific region and the 35th largest worldwide
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note, in this note we will talk about the updates since then and the trading dynamics.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in July 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in July 2023, among which 6 are in KOSPI and 35 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 41 stocks, the top five market cap stocks include Lunit, Sungeel Hitech, KG Mobility, Enchem, and E&D Co. 

Tryt IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Even with Optimistics Forecasts, The Firm Isn’t Cheap

By Clarence Chu

  • Tryt Inc (9164 JP) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO.
  • Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and track record against peers in our earlier notes. In this note, we will discuss our thoughts on valuation.

Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
  • Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-June 2023.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Tryt Inc, Fomento De Construcciones Y Co, Nexteel, STARK Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Tryt IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Even with Optimistics Forecasts, The Firm Isn’t Cheap
  • Take Private Looming
  • Nexteel IPO Preview
  • Stark Corporation: Not the Guy from the Movie


Tryt IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Even with Optimistics Forecasts, The Firm Isn’t Cheap

By Clarence Chu

  • Tryt Inc (9164 JP) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO.
  • Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and track record against peers in our earlier notes. In this note, we will discuss our thoughts on valuation.

Take Private Looming

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 28 June, after market close Fomento De Construcciones Y Co (FCC SM) announced the repurchase and redemption of 7% of its shares at €12.5/share (38% premium, €5.4 billion implied market cap).
  • According to my calculations, Carlos Slim will hold, directly and indirectly, c. 88.2% of the share capital post repurchase. That, to me, heralds a delisting offer further down the road.
  • The offer represents 7.1x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 8.9x Fwd P/E (on IBES forecasts). Median TP is €14.7. Gross spread is 5.3% (plus the €0.5 dividend). It seems a safe long.

Nexteel IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Nexteel is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in August. Nexteel is a steel pipe manufacturing company. The IPO price range is from 11,500 won to 12,500 won. 
  • The IPO offering size is from 80.5 billion won to 87.5 billion won. The expected market cap is from 299 billion won to 325 billion won.
  • Nexteel’s sales increased at a CAGR of 76.4% from 2020 to 2022. The company’s operating profit surged from 1.5 billion won in 2020 to 181.3 billion won in 2022. 

Stark Corporation: Not the Guy from the Movie

By Warut Promboon

  • STARK Corporation (STARK TB) (Stark) defaulted on its interest payments on 2-June, leading to a default event.
  • Stark’s default has exposed the structural weakness in the Thai bond market which is worth discussion.
  • We do not believe there is a reasonable basis for calculating the bond recovery value at this juncture.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Daio Paper Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023
  • Weekly Wrap – 30 Jun 2023


Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
  • Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-June 2023.

Weekly Wrap – 30 Jun 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Central China Real Estate
  2. Sino-Ocean Group
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Lifestyle International Holdings
  5. Geely Auto

and more…


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Drops But Still 8.8%; ASE Premium High & Looks Stretched


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Drops But Still 8.8%; ASE Premium High & Looks Stretched

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s ADR premium dropped to 8.8% but still historically high. The company has said it will send more Taiwan staff to get its U.S. production up and running.
  • ASE’s ADR premium is high even for this usually-high premium range. ASE ADRs may be slightly behind the curve of the local shares’ recent decline, hence the spread opened up.
  • Chunghwa Telecom is at a relatively high ADR premium for this tightly trading range.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Tryt Inc, Fomento De Construcciones Y Co, Nexteel, STARK Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Tryt IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Even with Optimistics Forecasts, The Firm Isn’t Cheap
  • Take Private Looming
  • Nexteel IPO Preview
  • Stark Corporation: Not the Guy from the Movie


Tryt IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Even with Optimistics Forecasts, The Firm Isn’t Cheap

By Clarence Chu

  • Tryt Inc (9164 JP) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO.
  • Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and track record against peers in our earlier notes. In this note, we will discuss our thoughts on valuation.

Take Private Looming

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 28 June, after market close Fomento De Construcciones Y Co (FCC SM) announced the repurchase and redemption of 7% of its shares at €12.5/share (38% premium, €5.4 billion implied market cap).
  • According to my calculations, Carlos Slim will hold, directly and indirectly, c. 88.2% of the share capital post repurchase. That, to me, heralds a delisting offer further down the road.
  • The offer represents 7.1x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 8.9x Fwd P/E (on IBES forecasts). Median TP is €14.7. Gross spread is 5.3% (plus the €0.5 dividend). It seems a safe long.

Nexteel IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Nexteel is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in August. Nexteel is a steel pipe manufacturing company. The IPO price range is from 11,500 won to 12,500 won. 
  • The IPO offering size is from 80.5 billion won to 87.5 billion won. The expected market cap is from 299 billion won to 325 billion won.
  • Nexteel’s sales increased at a CAGR of 76.4% from 2020 to 2022. The company’s operating profit surged from 1.5 billion won in 2020 to 181.3 billion won in 2022. 

Stark Corporation: Not the Guy from the Movie

By Warut Promboon

  • STARK Corporation (STARK TB) (Stark) defaulted on its interest payments on 2-June, leading to a default event.
  • Stark’s default has exposed the structural weakness in the Thai bond market which is worth discussion.
  • We do not believe there is a reasonable basis for calculating the bond recovery value at this juncture.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Lunit , Lotus Pharmaceutical, Sosei Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in July 2023
  • Lotus Pharmaceutical Placement – Sound Fundamentals but Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged
  • Sosei Group (4565 JP): Hit Hard by Partner’s Clinical Trial Termination; Need Time to Recover


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in July 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in July 2023, among which 6 are in KOSPI and 35 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 41 stocks, the top five market cap stocks include Lunit, Sungeel Hitech, KG Mobility, Enchem, and E&D Co. 

Lotus Pharmaceutical Placement – Sound Fundamentals but Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged

By Ethan Aw

  • Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT)’s majority shareholder, Alvogen Emerging Markets Holdings (AEMH), aims to raise up to US$247m through an affiliated secondary block offering.
  • The deal is a small one to digest at only 2.4 days of three month ADV, despite being about 8.7% of current mcap. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sosei Group (4565 JP): Hit Hard by Partner’s Clinical Trial Termination; Need Time to Recover

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sosei Group (4565 JP) shares sold off heavily after a major setback in partner’s clinical trial. On June 26, Pfizer Inc (PFE US) decided to discontinue the development of lotiglipron (PF-07081532).
  • PF-07081532 is one of three clinical candidates nominated by Pfizer during its multi-target drug discovery collaboration with Sosei to research and develop potential new medicines.
  • As lotiglipron was the most advanced clinical candidate using Sosei’s drug discovery platform, the heavy sell-off seen in Sosei shares should not be considered as overreaction.

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Daily Brief Financials: Punjab National Bank, Henderson International Income and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Punjab National Bank – Soaring Recoveries, From High NPLs, Pushes Profit Up 5.4x
  • Henderson International Income Trust – Playing recent events well


Punjab National Bank – Soaring Recoveries, From High NPLs, Pushes Profit Up 5.4x

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Bank analysts sometimes like a story with high NPLs; recoveries can be powerful to profit
  • For the past 7 quarters, NPLs are in decline at PNB, but most recent quarter is strongest
  • There remains a large pool of NPLs at 8.7% of loans, for possible ongoing recoveries

Henderson International Income Trust – Playing recent events well

By Edison Investment Research

Henderson International Income Trust (HINT) offers a diversified investment solution for those seeking capital growth and income opportunities outside the UK, where dividend income is relatively concentrated. Recent relative performance has improved, as underweights to the US and to IT and other growth stocks, which have previously hurt performance, are now boosting relative returns and should leave HINT well placed to cope with the persistently uncertain global environment. Overweights to European financials, energy and luxury goods producers have also been working well. HINT has a long-term objective to grow its dividend. Consistent with this, dividends have grown steadily since inception, and HINT’s dividend yield of 4.3% is competitive, ranking equal highest among its AIC peers.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Koolearn, Aristocrat Leisure, Dustin Group AB and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – The Digital Pantry of the Middle Classes
  • Koolearn (1797 HK): Dimmer Outlook Not yet Priced In
  • Aristocrat Leisure: Buy of NeoGames &  New Asian Focus Reinforces a Long Term Bullish Outlook
  • Axel Johnson/Dustin Group AB: Mandatory Offer


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – The Digital Pantry of the Middle Classes

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart) continues to book solid growth in its core mini-market business but is now pushing harder with both larger format Alfamidi and Lawson convenience stores formats.
  • 89%-Owned Midi Utama Indonesia (Alfamidi) recently announced a rights issue to finance the expansion of Alfamidi and Lawson underpinning its more aggressive expansion plans. 
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya booked solid 1Q2023 numbers for its core business and continues to grow its digital connections and collaborations as an integral offline leg of the digital economy. 

Koolearn (1797 HK): Dimmer Outlook Not yet Priced In

By Eric Chen

  • We cautioned investors about the excessive optimism around the company’s growth potential a few months ago.
  • Its growth momentum has since rapidly diminished, at a pace that also surprises us and points to a dimmer outlook.
  • Despite rounds of downward earnings revision, we still see further downside risks to earnings. We expect 20-30% decline in share price by end of this year.

Aristocrat Leisure: Buy of NeoGames &  New Asian Focus Reinforces a Long Term Bullish Outlook

By Howard J Klein

  • The gaming equipment and systems leader offers line of new Dragon themed slot machines for upcoming Year of the Dragon as spear point of expanded Asian goals.
  • Acquisition of Israel’s NeoGames at US$1b follows failed bid last year to acquire Playtech. Move will strengthen digital footprint for sports betting and iLottery.
  • We have been bullish for five years on ALL as its shares have outperformed the market.

Axel Johnson/Dustin Group AB: Mandatory Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 27 June, Axel Johnson said it had crossed the 30% threshold and would launch a mandatory offer for all shares of Dustin Group AB (DUST SS) at SEK 28.5/share
  • Axel Johnson doesn’t seem particularly interested in completing a takeover, rather being able to increase its stake after offer completion. The offer document isn’t even available in English.
  • The offer represents -4.2% to 1-month VWAP,  0.31x EV/Fwd sales (vs. 0.66x average since IPO). I wouldn’t get involved unless the share price drops below SEK 28.5.

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Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 30 Jun 2023 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 30 Jun 2023
  • Stark Corporation: Not the Guy from the Movie


Weekly Wrap – 30 Jun 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Central China Real Estate
  2. Sino-Ocean Group
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Lifestyle International Holdings
  5. Geely Auto

and more…


Stark Corporation: Not the Guy from the Movie

By Warut Promboon

  • STARK Corporation (STARK TB) (Stark) defaulted on its interest payments on 2-June, leading to a default event.
  • Stark’s default has exposed the structural weakness in the Thai bond market which is worth discussion.
  • We do not believe there is a reasonable basis for calculating the bond recovery value at this juncture.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: Tryt IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Even with Optimistics Forecasts and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Tryt IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Even with Optimistics Forecasts, The Firm Isn’t Cheap
  • Lotus Pharmaceutical Placement – Sound Fundamentals but Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged
  • Nexteel IPO Preview


Tryt IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Even with Optimistics Forecasts, The Firm Isn’t Cheap

By Clarence Chu

  • Tryt Inc (9164 JP) is looking to raise about US$460m in its Japan IPO.
  • Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and track record against peers in our earlier notes. In this note, we will discuss our thoughts on valuation.

Lotus Pharmaceutical Placement – Sound Fundamentals but Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged

By Ethan Aw

  • Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT)’s majority shareholder, Alvogen Emerging Markets Holdings (AEMH), aims to raise up to US$247m through an affiliated secondary block offering.
  • The deal is a small one to digest at only 2.4 days of three month ADV, despite being about 8.7% of current mcap. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Nexteel IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Nexteel is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in August. Nexteel is a steel pipe manufacturing company. The IPO price range is from 11,500 won to 12,500 won. 
  • The IPO offering size is from 80.5 billion won to 87.5 billion won. The expected market cap is from 299 billion won to 325 billion won.
  • Nexteel’s sales increased at a CAGR of 76.4% from 2020 to 2022. The company’s operating profit surged from 1.5 billion won in 2020 to 181.3 billion won in 2022. 

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