Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Amara Holdings (AMA SP) received a written notification from Mr Albert Teo Hock Chuan (CEO) and Ms Susan Teo Geok Tin (Company Secretary) that they mulling an offer.
The shares entered a trading halt on 16 June as the share price increased 23.9% from S$0.355 on 14 June to S$0.440 per share on 16 June.
Recent SGX privatisation proposals have shown that offerors tend to be miserly with their premiums. The sharp share price rally makes it challenging to launch an offer.

SE/Tiktok:Chinese Practitioners’ Discussions About TikTok’s E-Commerce Business in Southeast Asia

By Shawn Yang

Recently, there has been more discussion about TikTok’s e-commerce business in Southeast Asia on Chinese media and social networks.
Many service providers and entrepreneurs in China have also been inspired and hope to take the lead in the market with their domestic experience.
We estimate that TikTok’s 2023 GMV in Southeast Asia will reach 20%~ of Shopee, and this is one of the key reasons why we are bearish to SE.

REIT Watch – S-REITs rally on sigh of relief post June FOMC pause

By Geoff Howie

Top 10 S-Reits & property trusts that gained during the week of FOMC June 2023 meeting Key news last week was the US Federal Reserve’s decision to put a pause on interest rates, keeping them unchanged as announced during this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The top 5 gainers among S-REITs & Property Trusts during the week until Thursday’s close were: Keppel REIT (5.9 per cent), Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (5.6 per cent), Mapletree Logistics Trust (5.5 per cent), CapitaLand India Trust (4.7 per cent), and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (3.8 per cent).

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Jun 19

Daily Brief South Korea: Celltrion Healthcare and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth

Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS): Portfolio Enhancement to Drive Business Growth

By Tina Banerjee

Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) is expected to launch Humira biosimilar, Yuflyma, in the U.S. market in July 2023. Despite heavy competition, as high-concentration citrate-free formulation, Yuflyma has competitive edge.
In April 2023, Celltrion has launched bevacizumab biosimilar, Vegzelma in the U.S. Vegzelma will be the first product that the company will be directly selling in the U.S.
Through portfolio expansion, Celltrion increased target market size to $53.7B in 2023 from $20.6B in 2020, representing 161% growth. For 2024, the target market is expected to increase to $91.3B.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief China: Great Wall Motor, Golden Eagle Retail, BeiGene Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – RMB Dual Counter Trading Starts Today, Watch that A-Share Discount
Merger Arb Mondays (19 Jun) – Golden Eagle, Hailan, Yitai Coal, Toshiba, Kenedix, Tesserent, Oishi
BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) – AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – RMB Dual Counter Trading Starts Today, Watch that A-Share Discount

24 different HK-listed stocks will be tradable in RMB on the HKEX starting 19 June. They make up 35% of HKEX market cap, 40% of total turnover. They are fungible.
The ultimate goal is to allow mainland investors to trade HK stocks in RMB, but we’re not there yet. Southbound has yet to be approved for the 21 SB-eligible names.
Only five of the 24 have A-shares, and of those, three (China Mobile, CNOOC, and Great Wall Motor) have wide H-share discounts. Those should be the ones to look at.

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Jun) – Golden Eagle, Hailan, Yitai Coal, Toshiba, Kenedix, Tesserent, Oishi

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Silk Laser Australia (SLA AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Chindata Group (CD US), ENM Holdings (128 HK).
Lowest spreads – Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Penguin International (PBS SP).

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) – AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

AbbVie’s patent infringement allegations against BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) is an attempt to obstruct BeiGene through legal means and save Imbruvica’s sales decline in the market. AbbVie came prepared this time.
BeiGene has a chance to win the lawsuit if without any political factors.But if BeiGene fails to walk away unscathed, any damages/patent royalty would be detrimental to its financial performance/forecast.
The real key point in determining BeiGene’s future turnaround is not this lawsuit, but the clinical results of TIGIT project. Even with the correction since May, BeiGene is still expensive.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Japan: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, JPY, Toshiba Corp, Macbee Planet and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
USD Trade Splinters
Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) – Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal
Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF

On 8 May I wrote JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase. Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+.
Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&P500.
The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while.

USD Trade Splinters

By Thomas Schroeder

Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike.
Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.
We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.

Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) – Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), JD Industrials (2231713D CH) and JD Property (JDP HK) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Kenedix Office Investment Co (8972 JP), Abacus Property (ABP AU), Austal Ltd (ASB AU), Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK), Yitai Coal.

Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders

By Astris Advisory Japan

Q1-4 FY4/2023 results were ahead of revised company guidance and our earnings estimates, highlighting the company’s success in 1) driving demand at both existing and newly acquired customers, and 2) implementing Marketing Technology services that are improving the overall sales mix and driving margin growth.
On this fundamentally robust basis, the company acquired Net Marketing in April 2023, an advertising agency that will allow access to new customers in which to sell-in profitable Marketing Technology services and replicate its effective model, as well as gain exposure to a more diversified range of market sectors.
Strong outlook for FY4/2024 – we revise our earnings estimates for FY4/2024 and beyond, reflecting the following: 1) stronger topline growth in Analytics Consulting, 2) a more enhanced trajectory of profitability improvement in the medium term, given the success of Marketing Technology services to date.

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Jun 19

Most Read: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Cosmochemical, Great Wall Motor, Trip.com, Thai Life Insurance, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Makalot Industrial, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Amara Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
Market Talk on the Five Stocks Hitting the Lower Limit Yesterday
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – RMB Dual Counter Trading Starts Today, Watch that A-Share Discount
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger
SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT
Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats
Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early
Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Key Shareholders Ponder an Offer

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF

On 8 May I wrote JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase. Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+.
Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&P500.
The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while.

Market Talk on the Five Stocks Hitting the Lower Limit Yesterday

By Sanghyun Park

The trigger for yesterday’s sell-off was the sudden collective decision of the brokerages that had been allowing credit trading for these stocks to halt credit trading simultaneously.
There is a possibility that the identities of the stocks under investigation were leaked, and these brokerages took preemptive actions.
There have also been observations of large-cap stocks that may become the next targets. Some notable examples include Cosmo Chemical, Kum Yang, Posco International, and Ecopro Co.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – RMB Dual Counter Trading Starts Today, Watch that A-Share Discount

24 different HK-listed stocks will be tradable in RMB on the HKEX starting 19 June. They make up 35% of HKEX market cap, 40% of total turnover. They are fungible.
The ultimate goal is to allow mainland investors to trade HK stocks in RMB, but we’re not there yet. Southbound has yet to be approved for the 21 SB-eligible names.
Only five of the 24 have A-shares, and of those, three (China Mobile, CNOOC, and Great Wall Motor) have wide H-share discounts. Those should be the ones to look at.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.
The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX).
Yet another week of inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.

SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT

Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) will replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and JMT Network Services (JMT TB) in the SET 50 Index in June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

By David Blennerhassett

Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside
Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is coming up cheap versus Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB). Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise.
Abacus Property (ABP AU) confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There’s a trade here.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves

The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
Stocks with buy flows dropped 0.8% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 0.27%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -0.63% vs +1.99%.
The stocks with outflows have outperformed stocks with inflows by a huge margin in the recent past and short interest has jumped on most stocks recently.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats

By Simon Harris

Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early

By Mark Chadwick

OVERSEAS. SPX -0.4% 1st down day 7 as Markets price in Peak rates/rate declines; SPX Looks risky here(More BELOW); China revamps NEV subsidies; Putin places tactical Nukes in Belarus..mmm
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8 post-BOJ on Friday; NKY wins for 10th week; Kishida survives no-confidence motion; TEPCO goes full into Renewables; Lawsons makes a China push
NUGGET. SBI HD(8473) – Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early in what sets up to be a major opportunity

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Key Shareholders Ponder an Offer

Amara Holdings (AMA SP) received a written notification from Mr Albert Teo Hock Chuan (CEO) and Ms Susan Teo Geok Tin (Company Secretary) that they mulling an offer.
The shares entered a trading halt on 16 June as the share price increased 23.9% from S$0.355 on 14 June to S$0.440 per share on 16 June.
Recent SGX privatisation proposals have shown that offerors tend to be miserly with their premiums. The sharp share price rally makes it challenging to launch an offer.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Northbound Flows (Jun 16th): CATL and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Northbound Flows (Jun 16th): CATL, Wuliangye, Moutai, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Midea, Gree
A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 9th): BYD, CCB
Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 16th): CCB
HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart
ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 9th): IDP Education, Rio Tinto, Igo, Sayona Mining, BHP, Suncorp
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 16th): Inventec, Quanta Computer, Walsin Lihwa, Asia Vital

Northbound Flows (Jun 16th): CATL, Wuliangye, Moutai, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Midea, Gree

We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 16th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$2,312.7 million, led by industrials, information technology, consumer discretionary sectors, and offset by financials, materials.
We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Moutai, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Midea, BYD, Sany Heavy, Luxshare Precision, Wuxi Apptec, Gree Electric Appliances, Longi Green, Ping An Insurance, Dahua.

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 9th): BYD, CCB

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 113.9% as of Jun 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.9ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, materials, industrials and offset by consumer staples, information technology, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BYD Co Ltd and China Construction Bank.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 16th): CCB

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 16th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for CCB.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart.

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 9th): IDP Education, Rio Tinto, Igo, Sayona Mining, BHP, Suncorp

We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 9th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in IDP Education, Rio Tinto, Igo, Sayona Mining, BHP, Suncorp.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 16th): Inventec, Quanta Computer, Walsin Lihwa, Asia Vital

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Inventec, Quanta Computer, Walsin Lihwa, Asia Vital, Sanyang Motor, Winbond Elec, Synnex Tech Intl.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Crypto: The Collision of AI and Blockchain Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

The Collision of AI and Blockchain Technology

The Collision of AI and Blockchain Technology

By Etherbridge

Human beings are engineers. Our historical narrative is marked by our constant ability to control our environment through innovative strides known as technology.
Typically, our most significant collective progress is linked with technologies that enhance our capacity to distribute information and foster trust.
Consider the societal transformation that occurred after the invention of the printing press. It was not just about more books – the dissemination of knowledge it facilitated catalysed the Scientific Revolution, forever altering our understanding of the world.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Trade Splinters and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

USD Trade Splinters

USD Trade Splinters

By Thomas Schroeder

Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike.
Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.
We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Event-Driven: JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – RMB Dual Counter Trading Starts Today, Watch that A-Share Discount
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves
Merger Arb Mondays (19 Jun) – Golden Eagle, Hailan, Yitai Coal, Toshiba, Kenedix, Tesserent, Oishi
Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) – Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal
Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Key Shareholders Ponder an Offer

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF

On 8 May I wrote JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase. Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+.
Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&P500.
The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – RMB Dual Counter Trading Starts Today, Watch that A-Share Discount

24 different HK-listed stocks will be tradable in RMB on the HKEX starting 19 June. They make up 35% of HKEX market cap, 40% of total turnover. They are fungible.
The ultimate goal is to allow mainland investors to trade HK stocks in RMB, but we’re not there yet. Southbound has yet to be approved for the 21 SB-eligible names.
Only five of the 24 have A-shares, and of those, three (China Mobile, CNOOC, and Great Wall Motor) have wide H-share discounts. Those should be the ones to look at.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves

The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
Stocks with buy flows dropped 0.8% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 0.27%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -0.63% vs +1.99%.
The stocks with outflows have outperformed stocks with inflows by a huge margin in the recent past and short interest has jumped on most stocks recently.

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Jun) – Golden Eagle, Hailan, Yitai Coal, Toshiba, Kenedix, Tesserent, Oishi

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Silk Laser Australia (SLA AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Chindata Group (CD US), ENM Holdings (128 HK).
Lowest spreads – Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Penguin International (PBS SP).

Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) – Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), JD Industrials (2231713D CH) and JD Property (JDP HK) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Kenedix Office Investment Co (8972 JP), Abacus Property (ABP AU), Austal Ltd (ASB AU), Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK), Yitai Coal.

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Key Shareholders Ponder an Offer