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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 16
0

Daily Brief Australia: Norwest Energy Nl and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MinRes’ “Unconditional” Offer For Norwest

MinRes’ “Unconditional” Offer For Norwest

By David Blennerhassett

  • Iron ore and lithium play Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is offering one new share for every 1,367 Norwest Energy (NWE AU), an onshore O&G play, in an off-market takeover.
  • The implied value of A$0.06/share under the Offer represents a 27% premium to NWE’s one-month VWAP.
  • MinRes currently owns 19.9% in Norwest. There is no minimum acceptance condition. This is done and will trade tight.

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Dec 16
0

Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Yashili International Holdings, HKEX, Sa Sa International Hldgs, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Pinduoduo, Agile Property Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China ADRs Delisting – Christmas Came a Day Earlier than We Expected – No Delisting Risk for Now
  • Yashili/Mengniu: Are We There Yet?
  • China ADRs: PCAOB Resets the Clock on Delistings; Implications
  • Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Is It Too Late to Buy Now?
  • Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, and Longfor Group
  • Pinduoduo: Initiation of Coverage – Growth Story & Recent Developments
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

China ADRs Delisting – Christmas Came a Day Earlier than We Expected – No Delisting Risk for Now

By Sumeet Singh

  • Today PCAOB announced that they had secured complete access to inspect and investigate Chinese Firms for the first time in history.
  • This was on back of the Aug 2022 agreement between PCAOB, CSRC and MOF, which was followed up with a Hong Kong visit by PCAOB officials over Sep-Nov 2022.
  • We wrote about this on 14th Dec 2022 and expected the results to be out on Friday (16th Dec), they have come out a day earlier than we expected.

Yashili/Mengniu: Are We There Yet?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 6 May, Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK).
  • Pre-Conditions concern three sales and purchase agreements, all of which Yashili shareholders voted through on the 16 August.
  • From a regulatory standpoint, various conditions attached to Dumex China remain outstanding. But the wording in the most recent monthly update suggests the process is getting to the pointy end.

China ADRs: PCAOB Resets the Clock on Delistings; Implications

By Brian Freitas

Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Is It Too Late to Buy Now?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We think Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s risk-return payoff still look favourable even after the recent rally, which rides on the expectations of HK-mainland China border opening.  
  • Assuming net profit returns to 70% of pre-pandemic level in FY25, and applying a peak PER of 25x over 2011-2018, its share price still has 63% upside.
  • Release of pent-up demand, stabilisation of gross margin trend, improved cost dynamics and manageable financial position are all positive factors for Sa Sa. 

Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, and Longfor Group

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • After the sharp rally comes the pause; almost all constituents and leading indices are forming an inside week or a weekly Doji (small or long body with very little difference in open and close levels) [based on mid-day Thursday].
  • These two formations are a typical indication of market indecision.
  • However, it is unlikely to be quiet for the rest of December. 

Pinduoduo: Initiation of Coverage – Growth Story & Recent Developments

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Chinese internet giant, Pinduoduo.
  • In the past few months, various product categories of Pinduoduo, such as beauty and cosmetics, consumer electronics, and agriculture, have performed particularly well.
  • During the harvest festival, Pinduoduo worked with CCTV as well as assembled professors from China Agricultural University and the Chinese Academy for Agricultural Sciences to promote agricultural products.

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Dec 16
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Meritz Financial Group, Kakao Corp, Lotte Shopping Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Discussing Why Meritz Swap Spread Not Being Narrowed & When to Enter
  • Kakao Corp: FTC Going After Chairman Kim Beom-Su’s K Cube Holdings
  • Lotte Shopping: A Deep Value Stock Poised for a Turnaround

Discussing Why Meritz Swap Spread Not Being Narrowed & When to Enter

By Sanghyun Park

  • The swap arb spread has been consistently within the 3% to 5% band since November 23, when arb trading should have actually started.
  • Meritz Financial’s buyback seems to be making it difficult to build positions on expectations that the price gap relative to Fire and Securities will converge quickly with the swap ratio.
  • As the actual risk of repaying financial borrows is small, we should start building up positions two weeks before the end of January, aiming to exit in early or mid-February.

Kakao Corp: FTC Going After Chairman Kim Beom-Su’s K Cube Holdings

By Douglas Kim

  • On 15 December, it was announced that Korea’s FTC decided to refer K Cube Holdings (KCH) to the prosecution over alleged illegal execution of voting rights to Kakao companies.
  • This could signal that the financial regulators may become more forceful in enforcing numerous other regulatory pressures on Kakao Corp and its affiliated companies to reduce their monopolistic business practices
  • Our NAV valuation of Kakao Corp suggests NAV per share of 45,942 won, which is 17% lower than current price.

Lotte Shopping: A Deep Value Stock Poised for a Turnaround

By Douglas Kim

  • Lotte Shopping is a deep value stock poised for a turnaround. 
  • Lotte Shopping has clear turnaround catalysts, cheap valuations, and a solid technical setup. 
  • Perhaps the most important catalysts for Lotte Shopping include getting rid of the most restrictions/social distancing measures related to COVID-19 which have been in place in the past three years.

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Dec 16
0

Daily Brief United States: S&P 500, Moderna Inc, Emerson Electric Co, Ethereum, Carrier Global Corp, Square Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 4,150 Sell Used to Short
  • Short Ideas on Our Workbench:  Earnings Quality
  • Emerson Electric Co.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Divestments & Other Drivers
  • Emerson Electric Co.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • A Comparison of Aave and Compound
  • Carrier Global Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition Of Toshiba’s HVAC Business & Other Drivers
  • Block: The Highly Uncertain Pivot Of The Business

SPX 4,150 Sell Used to Short

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX 4,150 turn target met. Our game plan focused on longs established near SPX 3,940 with an ideal sell zone at 4,150 on a brief spike above 4,100. 
  • We established shorts at that SPX 4,150 (NDX, RTY, CAC, NKY, HSI). Ladder shorts on strength and use dips to reduce.
  • Mid December cycle peak may need some top building work into January where we range before a more prominent down leg.

Short Ideas on Our Workbench:  Earnings Quality

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • We normally write these “Workbench” reports in between our larger initiation pieces.  They are intended to offer a window into our short investment process and to highlight potentially interesting names.
  • This Workbench focuses exclusively on earnings quality shorts.  We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight:
  • Moderna (MRNA),  Knowles (KN)    Juniper Networks (JNPR)  Upstart Holdings (UPST)  Beauty Health Co (SKIN), Sonos (SONO). Kraft Heinz (KHC), AZEK Co. (AZEK), Energizer Holdings (ENR),  Fox Factory Holding  (FOXF)

Emerson Electric Co.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Divestments & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on engineering major, Emerson Electric.
  • The company had a strong finish to the fiscal year 2022, with sales increasing by 9% surpassing Wall Street expectations.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Emerson Electric with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Emerson Electric Co.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Emerson Electric is a well-known engineering company catering to clients in the industrial, commercial, and consumer markets.
  • It continues to see growth potential in the life sciences sector thanks to continued investment in creating new drugs, vaccines, and medications.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

A Comparison of Aave and Compound

By Kaiko

  • Aave and Compound are two of DeFi’s stalwarts: the two largest lending and borrowing protocols on Ethereum, each with a TVL over ten times larger than the third largest protocol.
  • Both protocols have functioned nearly flawlessly this year while a growing number of centralized entities have been failing in often spectacular fashion.
  • Aave has accumulated just $2.17mn of bad debt (most of which was generated in a recent, likely unprofitable, exploit covered here) relative to its $3.2bn TVL, while Compound has just $65,000 to its $1.5bn TVL. 

Carrier Global Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition Of Toshiba’s HVAC Business & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on global HVAC major, Carrier Global Corporation.
  • On the heels of the continued traction on pricing, Carrier delivered quite high organic sales growth in the quarter, and importantly, it continues delivering double-digit aftermarket organic growth.
  • Among other major updates, the company completed the acquisition of the global light commercial and residential HVAC business of Toshiba.

Block: The Highly Uncertain Pivot Of The Business

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Block share price continued to underperform on a risk-adjusted basis, even it delivered double digit returns.
  • Topline growth is slowing down as macroeconomic environment is no longer supportive and competition intensifies.
  • Block’s business model seems ill-positioned to deliver, according to the company.

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Dec 16
0

Daily Brief India: Indian Railway Catering and Tourism, Zydus Lifesciences Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • IRCTC OFS – Well Flagged Deal for an Overly Well Priced Stock
  • Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): New Launches Aid US Business; India Business Continued to Progress

IRCTC OFS – Well Flagged Deal for an Overly Well Priced Stock

By Sumeet Singh

  • Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$360m via selling its 5% stake in Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN).
  • This is not the first selldown by GoI and won’t be the last either. However, the stock now looks more expensive than ever.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): New Launches Aid US Business; India Business Continued to Progress

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q2FY23, Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) recorded 16% y/y and 10% q/q growth in the U.S. formulation business, mainly driven by new launches including gRevlimid.
  • India formulation business continued to progress well, with market share gain in key therapies including cardiovascular, gynecology, respiratory, and gastro intestinal on a y/y basis.
  • Zydus remains confident to achieve 20% plus EBITDA margin for the current fiscal, backed by growth visibility across key businesses, coupled with various cost optimization initiatives.

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Dec 16
0

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Anycolor, Premier Anti-Aging, Tokyo Electron, FUJIFILM Holdings, Askul Corp, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba  (6502) – Funding Secured!
  • 2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!
  • Toshiba (6502 JP): Securing Financing Helps Sentiment but Hurdles Remain
  • Premier Anti-Aging Company: DUO Is Going Down
  • Tokyo Electron (8035) | Huge Upside if Management Hit Targets
  • Fujifilm: An Inspiring Transformation Story
  • Askul Q2 23 Results Reaction: B2B Growth and B2C Cost Savings Drive Solid Quarter
  • ROIC Helps to Raise Transparency in Business, but Management Skills Are the Key to Improve Return

Toshiba  (6502) – Funding Secured!

By Travis Lundy

  • A Nikkei article today suggests FUNDING SECURED for JIP’s deal for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). Noises 2wks ago suggested this timing for a deal, but there are no terms yet.
  • The syndicate, led by SMBC and Mizuho, “has agreed to ¥1.2trln in loans.” The two leads take two-thirds but details suggest not all is as smooth as the headline suggests.
  • The remaining questions are whether the major holders will take the bait at that price, and/or whether JIC would come in over the top. I expect yes to the first.

2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!

By Travis Lundy

  • “VTuber” (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
  • Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
  • The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.

Toshiba (6502 JP): Securing Financing Helps Sentiment but Hurdles Remain

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has secured bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion), conditional on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) selling some businesses.
  • JIP will table an offer valuing Toshiba at JPY2.2 trillion (US$16 billion). The special committee is assessing the proposal and a final decision will be made at a board meeting.
  • JIP’s next challenge is getting the committee to recommend the offer. While a potential offer of JPY5,100 is not terrible, it is well below the original bid expectation of JPY6,000.

Premier Anti-Aging Company: DUO Is Going Down

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) shares rose 6.1% today following a massive earnings miss and a substantial downgrade to FY23 guidance.
  • This is perhaps due to low liquidity and depressed prices as the share price dropped more than 85% since July last year.
  • We think there’s more downside to the stock, especially with DUO about to hit the bottom of the barrel and CANADEL and Clayence struggling to maintain growth momentum.

Tokyo Electron (8035) | Huge Upside if Management Hit Targets

By Mark Chadwick

  • Tokyo Electron is a structural growth stock that has fallen by 31% YTD reflecting near term risks to growth and margins
  • We believe that the digitization of society has only just begun and that data volumes will grow exponentially
  • We analyse TEL’s core value drivers – revenue, margins, risk and reinvestment – and see 38% upside

Fujifilm: An Inspiring Transformation Story

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Established as a domestic photographic film manufacturing company, Fujifilm has successfully evolved into a healthcare company with majority revenue earned from medical and life science related businesses.
  • Fujifilm is now a leading player in Bio CDMO market through a combination of acquisitions and in-house developed capabilities. The company has gained recognition among leading pharmaceutical companies.
  • We think there is further upside to Fujifilm’s valuation multiples as the market still values the stock as an image/photography company and not in line with healthcare peers.

Askul Q2 23 Results Reaction: B2B Growth and B2C Cost Savings Drive Solid Quarter

By Kirk Boodry

  • Results for Q2 were better than we expected as B2B sales growth remained robust whilst cost savings on the consumer side boosted margins
  • A rather robust decline in revenue for Lohaco is the only negative that stands out but this was partially anticipated whilst the corresponding cost savings are a boon
  • An 11% increase in operating profit for Q2 offsets weakness from the previous report and puts the company on track to meet guidance for full-year growth

ROIC Helps to Raise Transparency in Business, but Management Skills Are the Key to Improve Return

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The important thing is not whether the ROIC tool is used or not, but rather the risk-taking for investment and whether it resulted in sufficient returns.
  • A change in the outlook for improving profitability is necessary for the stock price to rise, and furthermore, a compelling growth policy and capital allocation can also be effective.
  • The fact that valuations have not risen sufficiently in the current situation infers that investors lack confidence in the path to improving profitability for each business.

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Dec 15
0

Daily Brief ESG: Companies that Buy Back Their Own Shares but Do Not Increase Their Share Price Should Consider Why and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Companies that Buy Back Their Own Shares but Do Not Increase Their Share Price Should Consider Why
  • A Win for Truston Asset Mgmt: Corporate Activism Worked on Taekwang Industrial

Companies that Buy Back Their Own Shares but Do Not Increase Their Share Price Should Consider Why

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies are presumably allocating cash to shareholder returns rather than investing in growth. Lack of investment in growth may lead to slower profit growth, which leads to lower valuations.
  • There is concern that management may be hesitant to take risks. Since no shareholder hates shareholder returns, they may be easily diverted to share repurchases that don’t require risk-taking decision.
  • Although the expected share repurchase will limit the risk of sharp decline in the stock prices, modest growth investments are likely to prevent the expansion of multiples.

A Win for Truston Asset Mgmt: Corporate Activism Worked on Taekwang Industrial

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight provides the details of how a local asset management company called Truston Asset Mgmt has been able to win a corporate activism battle against Taekwang Industrial.
  • Taekwang Industrial has repeatedly been boggled down by numerous corporate governance related issues for more than a couple of decades.
  • The overall result should be a modest positive sentiment on Taekwang Industrial’s shares in the near term which still trades at dirt cheap P/B multiple of 0.2x.

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Dec 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Today’s Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Today’s Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

Today’s Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX, $IWM, $QQQ continue to have trouble breaking above their 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the DJIA has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280.
  • With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout.
  • We still recommend shifting exposure to defensives (Staples,Utilities,Health Care) and/or taking profits following this rally, but we cannot rule out potential for major upside breakouts. We discuss specific levels below.

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Dec 15
0

Daily Brief ECM: Our IPO Calls for 2022 and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Our IPO Calls for 2022
  • DPC Dash IPO: Valuation
  • Weilong Delicious IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • Singapore Proptech Firm Ohmyhome Files for US$15M IPO at US$88M Valuation

Our IPO Calls for 2022

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • As 2022 comes to an end, we revisit our IPO calls over the last 12-months and how these stocks have performed to assess the effectiveness of our calls.
  • We made explicit buy/sell calls on 12 IPOs during this period with a hit-rate of 83.3% with Grab, GoTo, Cloud Music, SenseTime and Leapmotor IPOs making the highest returns.
  • We also wrote on several other IPOs during this period, however, those IPOs have not received approval yet.

DPC Dash IPO: Valuation

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • DPC Dash (1405 HK) is the exclusive master franchisee of Domino’s Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau with around 546 stores as of 9M2022.
  • With Domino’s trailing Pizza Hut in the Chinese market, we think DPC Dash doesn’t deserve to trade on par with other leading Domino’s Master Franchisees around the world.
  • Therefore, we see an opportunity to make money on the short side, once the IPO is completed.

Weilong Delicious IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Weilong Delicious Global (9985 HK) has priced its IPO at HK$10.56 per share, slightly above the bottom of the IPO price range of HK$10.4-11.4 per share.
  • The company’s HK offering was oversubscribed by 10.53x while the international offering was oversubscribed by 2.6x.
  • Even at the above price, Weilong’s IPO is still at a significant premium to domestic as well as international peers.

Singapore Proptech Firm Ohmyhome Files for US$15M IPO at US$88M Valuation

By e27

  • Singapore-based Ohmyhome has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) in the US at about US$88 million valuation, according to multiple reports.
  • The property-tech company seeks to raise up to US$16.25 million and offer 3.25 million shares at a price range of US$4-5 apiece.
  • Spartan Capital Securities is the lead managing underwriter and book-runner for the IPO.

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Dec 15
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co
  • Wynn Resorts

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Wynn Resorts

By Baptista Research

  • Wynn Resorts is a renowned operator of casinos and resorts across the world.
  • Wynn’s management observed strength throughout the casino, with record gross gaming revenue and record hotel revenue, driven by strength in both ADR and occupancy on the nongaming side.
  • In addition, Wynn is progressing with the planning for Wynn Marjan, their integrated resort in the United Arab Emirates.

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